My read is that the read is vague. He certainly did not come out and say that at current prices he is willing to buy back shares in the open market. I mean, who is going to call up his broker and offer their shares at less than the market? To me that implies that while we are below intrinsic value in his estimation, we are not "significantly below" it- in his estimation.
In the past,his estimations have been fairly accurate. Just remember that he's looking for 15%! 1500 was 15% in my opinion. What this tells me is that I was wrong and that the intrinsic value is actually lower than I thought.
Critically speaking, what is with the Jeff Bezos imitation on GEICO? All of a sudden, it's OK to spend all kinds of money on marketing ($1 billion this year he says) in order to grab market share, even if it means a loss? He then excuses it by saying how Gen Re will offset in all likelihood. But that does really excuse the approach with respect to GEICO? I don't understand it.
Every year the report becomes more a marketing tool. Never more than this year.
Why buy Buffett's Berkshire when one can buy a portfolio of many of his stocks (Freddie Mac, Gilette, Coke, Amex, Wells Fargo) near yearly lows and without the capital gains liability embedded in Berkshire. Moreover, one can make an educated guess as to the several of the others he either owns or would buy given the carnage in the market. IMO, now is a good time to start piecing together one's own Berkshire-like equity portfolio
Indeed, maybe a good time to buy an insurer and do it with the float <g>
Mike |
