|BUY AND SELL SIGNALS AND OTHER MARKET PERSPECTIVES|
Numerous posters here at SI have encouraged me to begin my own market thread to post my buy and sell signals, so here is it.
I will post my model’s buy and sell signals in advance of the market as they appear on the horizon. For example, a sell signal would be triggered when the market trades below a given price and I will then enter the trade. If the market closes below that price, then the sell signal would be confirmed and I will hold that newly entered position. To account for real time slippage, I will take a fill two ticks below that price and post that position as the thread’s official market entry and position. As well, a buy signal would be triggered when the market trades above a given price, and if the market closes above that price, then the buy signal would be confirmed. Again, to account for real time slippage, I will take a fill two ticks above that price and post the entry as the thread’s official market entry and position. I will keep an ongoing running tally of all profits and losses for these confirmed signals.
A signal may be triggered during the day, but if there is no confirmation on the close, then no position will be kept. But still, I will add a two point loss to the ongoing tally to account for merely taking the signal even though it was not confirmed. This would be the same as taking the signal during the day with a two point stop loss.
The Vertical Price:
A vertical price (VP) is the price of maximum stretch during a rally or a decline. In a down market, there is a price where excessive selling becomes completely exhausted (at least for the meantime) and where buying is mostly likely to enter the market and begin a rally. This vertical price is NOT a target, there is no certainty that the market will actually reach the vertical price. But, if the market in fact hits that vertical price, then I may cover my short position and go long but it is not a buy signal, it's just a warning that the market is extremely oversold and that you should expect a brisk rally from that point. The inverse is also true in an up market. Interestingly enough, the market typically turns around within a few ticks of that vertical price, so it's a highly reliable indicator. On any new buy or sell signal I will also post the new vertical price so we can watch for it in advance.
There's never a guarantee that the market would reach any vertical price, but if/when it does, then you can expect a sharp reaction from that price about 95% of the time. These VP's have absolutely nothing to do with gaps or trend lines or with any other technical analysis, it's a completely original phenomenon I discovered during the development of my model.
Time Versus Price:
Time is as important as price. In a down trend, there are deadlines for that down move at which time the selling will stop and the market will rally, but only if the market price is above the vertical price on that due date. If the market is below that vertical price on that due date, then the time limit is extended. The reverse is also true in an up trend. I will also post these turn around due dates when each new signal is confirmed and the new trade is entered.
I will be using the front month of the SP futures contract; you can follow that chart here:
There will be occasional non confirmed signals, but that’s okay as long as the confirmed signals can generate more profits than the non confirmed signals would cost. Each trade is based on a single contract; each full point represents $250.00.
Frankly, I day trade on occasion and fade the model, but I’ve learned there is no great advantage in fading a model that does well on its own. When I fade the model, sometimes I make money, and sometimes I get hammered. I will only post the model’s official signals as we go. In the longer run, it’s simpler to take the signals and not try to over think these markets, it’s a lesson learned over time the hard way.
A technical model is not a crystal ball, it is only a windsock, it will tell you which way the wind is blowing at the moment, there is no way to predict for certain what the market itself will do. However, a good technical model will give you some advantage over flipping a coin. And then again, sometimes I wonder about that too.
I will also post weekend market polls to see where you think the next market direction will be. This will give everyone a weekly consensus of opinion about these markets. I value your opinion; I welcome all your market comments.
Please understand, this thread is strictly for entertainment purposes only, none of the posted signals are to be construed as a buy, sell, or hold recommendation, I am not a guru, I’m just a trader who thinks it would be fun to post my signals and see how well or how poorly the model does over the next many months. I am not soliciting any action based upon it.
This thread is very much like a town hall gathering of interested traders and investors, so I only ask that you be polite and courteous to other posters, anyone who cannot behave will be escorted out the door without ceremony. Certainly, there can be differences of opinion and heated debate, but there is never a need for rudeness or personal attacks.
Thanks and great trading!!!
Trades and current position: (ALL TRADES WILL BE POSTED ON THE THREAD IN CAPS)
SIGNAL TRADES FOR 2010
1/21/10 short at 1124.50 NEW SELL SIGNAL
2/3/10 long at 1096.00, NEW BUY SIGNAL - - net profit $7125.00, total gain $7125.00
2/4/10 Out at 1086.00, BUY SIGNAL NOT CONFIRMED, now flat - - net loss $2500, total gain $4625.00
2/4/10 long at 1068.00 NEW BUY SIGNAL
2/4/10 short at 1065.00 BUY SIGNAL NOT CONFIRMED - - net loss on closed trade $750.00, total gain $3875.00
2/10/10 Reversed to long at 1066.00 NEW BUY SIGNAL - - net loss on closed $250.00, total gain $3625.00
4/6/10 Reversed to short at 1184.50 NEW SELL SIGNAL - - net profit on closed $29,675, total gain $33,550.00
4/7/10 Reversed to long at 1184.00 SELL SIGNAL NOT CONFIRMED - - net profit on closed $125.00, total gain $33,675.00
4/16/10 Reversed to short at 1196.00 NEW SELL SIGNAL - - net profit on closed $1500.00, total gain $35,175.00
4/16/10 Reversed to long at 1190.00 SELL SIGNAL NOT CONFIRMED - - net profit on closed $1500, total gain $36,675.00
4/27/10 Reversed to short at 1207.30 SELL SIGNAL TRIGGERED - - net profit on closed $4325.00, total gain $41,000.00
5/11/10 Reversed to long at 1162.70 NEW BUY SIGNAL - - net profit on closed $11,150.00, total gain $52,150.00
5/11/10 Reversed to short at 1161.00, FAILED BUY SIGNAL - - net loss on closed $425.00, total gain $51,725.00
5/12/10 Reversed to long at 1162.00, NEW BUY SIGNAL - - net loss on closed $250.00, total gain $51,475.00
5/12/10 Reversed to short at 1168.00, SIGNAL NOT CONFIRMED - - net profit on closed $1500.00, total gain $52,975.00
5/12/10 Reversed to long at 1169.00, MINOR SIGNAL WAS CONFIRMED AFTER ALL, net loss on closed $250.00, total gain $52,725.00
5/13/10 Reversed to short at 1172.50, - - (approaching major buy signal, minimal risk to short here) net profit on closed $875.00, total gain $53,600.00
6/2/10 Reversed to long at 1092.30 on a NEW CONFIRMED BUY SIGNAL - - net profit on closed $20,050.00, total gain $73,650.00
6/4/10 Reversed to short at 1067.00 on a NEW CONFIRMED SELL SIGNAL - - net loss on closed $6,325.00, total gain $67,325.00
6/8/10 Reversed to long at 1060.80 on a NEW BUY SIGNAL, NOT YET CONFIRMED - - net profit on closed $1550.00, total gain $68,875.00 THIS SIGNAL WAS CONFIRMED
6/10/10 Sold June at 1083.80 and rolled into September at 1079.50 - - net profit on June contract $5750.00, total gain $74,625.00
6/29/10 Reverse to short at 1062.50 on a NEW SELL SIGNAL CONFIRMED - - net loss on closed $4250.00, total gain $70,375.00
7/22/10 Reverse to long at 1087.10 on a NEW BUY SIGNAL CONFIRMED - - net loss on closed $6150.00, total gain $64,225.00
8/6/10 Reversed to short at 1114.70 on a NEW SELL SIGNAL - - net profit $6900.00, total gain $71,125.00
8/6/10 Reversed back to long at 1116.00 since the SELL SIGNAL WAS NOT CONFIRMED - - net loss $325.00, total gain $70,800.00
8/11/10 Reversed to short at 1109.10 on a NEW SELL SIGNAL CONFIRMED - - net loss on closed long $1725.00, total gain $69,075.00
9/1/10 Reversed to long at 1080.80 on a NEW BUY SIGNAL - - net profit on closed short $7050.00, total gain $76,125.00
9/9/10 Sold September long at 1102.50 to roll into December - - net profit on closed long $5425.00, total gain $81,550.00
9/9/10 Rolled into December at 1097.30...
9/23/10 Reversed to short at 1122.50 on a NEW SELL SIGNAL - - net profit on closed long $6300.00, total gain $87,850.00
9/23/10 Reversed to long at 1125.50 on a 3 point stop, will re-enter the short side if we approach the sell point again - - net loss $750.00, total gain $87,100.00
9/23/10 Reversed to short again at 1125.50 - - no profit or loss on this trade, total gain still $87,100.00
9/24/10 Reversed to long at 1141.70 on a NEW BUY SIGNAL - - net loss on closed short $4050.00, total gain $83,050.00
11/1/10 Reversed to short at 1177.00 on a NEW SELL SIGNAL - - net profit on closed long $8825.00, total gain $91,875.00
11/1/10 Reversed to long at 1177.40 when sell signal failed - net loss on closed short $100.00, total gain $91,775.00
11/3/10 Reversed to short at 1193.20 on a NEW SELL SIGNAL - - net profit on closed long $3950.00, total gain $95,725.00
11/3/10 Reversed to long at 1193.00 on a FAILED SELL SIGNAL - - net profit on closed short $50.00, total gain $95,775.00
12/31/10 Reversed to short at 1253.00 on a CONFIRMED SELL SIGNAL - - net profit on closed long $15,000.00, total gain and FOR THE YEAR OF 2010 $110,775.00
Total gains for 2010 $110,775.00
SIGNAL TRADES FOR 2011
Below are the Profit and loss trades for 2011 ONLY, P/L book begins again at zero for 2011
Currently short at 1253.00 as of 12/31/10
1/2/11 Reversed to long at 1256.80 on a NEW BUY SIGNAL - - net loss on closed short $950.00, total loss $950,00
1/5/11 Reversed to short at 1259.60 on a NEW SELL SIGNAL - - net profit on closed long $700.00, total loss $250.00
1/5/11 Reversed to long at 1262.00 on a FAILED SELL SIGNAL - - net loss on closed short $600.00, total loss $850.00
1/10/11 Reversed to short at 1258.40 on a NEW SELL SIGNAL - - net loss on closed long $900.00, total loss $1750.00
1/1/011 Reversed to long at 1260.40 on a FAILED SELL SIGNAL - - net loss on closed short $500.00, total loss $2250.00
1/19/11 Reversed to short at 1286.50 on a NEW SELL SIGNAL - - net gain on closed long $6525.00, total gain $4275.00...
1/24/11 Reversed to long at 1285.00 on a NEW BUY SIGNAL - - net gain on closed short $375.00, total gain $4650.00...
1/25/11 Reversed to short at 1285.00 on a NEW SELL SIGNAL - - no gain or loss on closed long, total gain $4650.00...
1/25/11 Reversed to long at 1285.00, the sell signal has been nullified, no gain or loss on this trade...
1/30/11 Reversed to short at 1270.30 on a NEW SELL SIGNAL - - net loss on closed long $3675.00, total gain $975.00...
1/30/11 Reversed to long at 1271.00 since the SELL SIGNAL WAS NULLIFIED - - net loss on closed short $175.00, total gain $800.00...
1/31/11 Reversed to short at 1270.50 on same NEW SELL SIGNAL - - net loss on closed long $125.00, total gain $675.00
1/31/11 Reversed to long at 1270.00 - - net gain on closed short $125.00, total gain $800.00
2/11/11 Reversed to short at 1313.00 on a NEW SELL SIGNAL - - net gain on closed long $10,750.00, total gain $11,550.00
2/11/11 Reversed to long at 1315.00 on nullified sell signal - - net loss on closed short $500.00, total gain $11,050.00
2/21/11 Reversed to short at 1335.20 on a NEW SELL SIGNAL - - net gain on closed long $5050.00, total gain $16,100.00
3/1/11 Reversed to long at 1331.00 on a NEW BUY SIGNAL - - net gain on closed short $1050.00, total gain $17,150.00
3/1/11 Reversed to short again at 1331.00 since the BUY SIGNAL WAS NULLIFIED... no gain or loss...
3/3/11 Reversed to long at 1331.00 on a NEW BUY SIGNAL - - no gain or loss...
3/3/11 Reversed to short at 1330.00 on a nullified buy signal - - net loss $250.00 on closed long, total gain $16,900.00
3/3/11 Reversed to long at 1329.40 on a NEW BUY SIGNAL - - net gain $150.00 on closed short, total gain $17,050.00
3/4/11 Reversed to short at 1329.40 on a nullified buy signal - - no gain or loss
3/10/11 Rolled into short June at 1290.50, covered short March at 1294.30 - - net gain $8775.00 on closed short, total gain $25,825.00
3/21/11 Reversed to long at 1288.40 on a NEW BUY SIGNAL - - net gain $525.00 on closed short, total gain $26,350.00
3/23/11 Reversed to short at 1285.00 on a NEW SELL SIGNAL - - net loss $850.00 on closed long, total gain $25,500.00
3/23/11 Reversed to long at 1291.60 on a NEW BUY SIGNAL - - net loss $1650.00 on closed short, total gain $23,850.00