|BUY AND SELL SIGNALS AND OTHER MARKET PERSPECTIVES|
Numerous posters here at SI have encouraged me to begin my own market thread to post my buy and sell signals, so here is it.
I will post my model’s buy and sell signals in advance of the market as they appear on the horizon. For example, a sell signal would be triggered when the market trades below a given price. If the market closes below that price, then the sell signal would be confirmed and I will take a short position in that market. To account for real time slippage, I will take a fill two ticks below that price and post that position as the thread’s official market entry and position. As well, a buy signal would be triggered when the market trades above a given price, and if the market closes above that price, then the buy signal would be confirmed. Again, to account for real time slippage, I will take a fill two ticks above that price and post the entry as the thread’s official market entry and position. I will keep an ongoing running tally of all profits and losses for these confirmed signals.
A signal may be triggered during the day, but if there is no confirmation on the close, then no position will be taken. But still, I will add a two point loss to the ongoing tally to account for merely taking the signal even though it was not confirmed. This would be the same as taking the signal during the day with a two point stop loss.
The Vertical Price:
A vertical price is the price of maximum stretch during a rally or a decline. In a down market, there is a price where buying is mostly likely to enter the market and begin a rally. This vertical price is NOT a target, there is no certainty that the market will actually reach the vertical price. But, if the market in fact hits that vertical price, then I will cover my short position but not go long since it is not buy signal, it's just a warning that the market is extremely oversold. The inverse is also true in an up market. Interestingly enough, the market typically turns around within a few ticks of that vertical price, so it's a highly reliable indicator. On any new buy or sell signal I will also post the new vertical price so we can watch for it in advance.
Time Versus Price:
Time is as important as price. In a down trend, there are deadlines for that down move at which time the selling will stop and the market will rally, but only if the market price is above the vertical price on that due date. If the market is below that vertical price on that due date, then the time limit is extended. The reverse is also true in an up trend. I will also post these turn around due dates when each new signal is confirmed and the new trade is entered.
I will be using the front month of the SP futures contract; you can follow that chart here:
There will be occasional non confirmed signals, but that’s okay as long as the confirmed signals can generate more profits than the non confirmed signals would cost. Each trade is based on a single contract; each full point represents $250.00.
Frankly, I day trade on occasion and fade the model, but I’ve learned there is no great advantage in fading a model that does well on its own. When I fade the model, sometimes I make money, and sometimes I get hammered. I will only post the model’s official signals as we go. In the longer run, it’s simpler to take the signals and not try to over think these markets, it’s a lesson learned over time the hard way.
A technical model is not a crystal ball, it is only a windsock, it will tell you which way the wind is blowing at the moment, there is no way to predict for certain what the market itself will do. However, a good technical model will give you some advantage over flipping a coin. And then again, sometimes I wonder about that too.
I will also post weekend market polls to see where you think the next market direction will be. This will give everyone a weekly consensus of opinion about these markets. I value your opinion; I welcome all your market comments.
Please understand, this thread is strictly for entertainment purposes only, none of the posted signals are to be construed as a buy, sell, or hold recommendation, I am not a guru, I’m just a trader who thinks it would be fun to post my signals and see how well or how poorly the model does over the next many months. I am not soliciting any action based upon it.
This thread is very much like a town hall gathering of interested traders and investors, so I only ask that you be polite and courteous to other posters, anyone who cannot behave will be escorted out the door without ceremony. Certainly, there can be differences of opinion and heated debate, but there is never a need for rudeness.
Thanks and great trading!!!
Trades and current position: (ALL TRADES WILL BE POSTED ON THE THREAD IN CAPS)
1/21/10 short at 1124.50 MODEL SELL SIGNAL
1/25/10 covered at 1096.00, now flat - - net and total gain $7125.00
1/25/10 short at 1093.80
1/26/10 covered short at 1088.80, now flat - - net gain $1250.00, total gain $8375.00
1/26/10 short at 1088.20
1/27/10 covered short at 1084.00, now flat - - net gain $1050.00, total gain $9425.00
2/3/10 long at 1096.00, bought in the evening session on a NEW BUY SIGNAL
2/4/10 stopped out at 1086.00, BUY SIGNAL NOT CONFIRMED, now flat - - net loss $2500, total gain $6925.00
2/4/10 long at 1068.00 MODEL BUY SIGNAL
2/4/10 stopped out at 1066.00, now flat - - net loss $500.00, total gain $6425.00
2/4/10 long at 1067.00 on same buy signal day
2/4/10 stopped out at 1066.00, now flat - - net loss $500.00, total gain $5925.00
2/4/10 short at 1065.00 BUY SIGNAL NOT CONFIRMED
2/5/10 Reversed to long at 1053.00 - - net gain $3000, total gain $8925.00
2/5/10 Reversed to short at 1060.00 - - net gain $1750, total gain $10,675.00
2/5/10 Reversed to long at 1060.00 - - net gain n/a, total gain $10,675.00
2/5/10 Reversed to short at 1059.00 - - net loss $250, total gain $10,525.00
2/5/10 Reversed to long at 1052.00 - - net gain $1750, total gain $12,275.00
2/8/10 Reversed to short at 1061.00 - - net gain $2250.00, total gain $14,525.00
2/9/10 Reversed to long at 1066.00 - - net loss $1250.00, total gain $13,275.00
2/9/10 Reversed to short at 1062.00 - - net loss $1000.00, total gain $12,275.00
2/9/10 Reversed to long at 1062.00 - - net loss n/a, total gain $12,275.00
2/10/10 Reversed to short at 1062.00 - - net loss n/a, total gain $12,275.00
2/10/10 Reversed to long at 1066.00 MODEL BUY SIGNAL - - net loss $1,000.00, total gain $11,275.00
2/14/10 Reversed to short at 1077.50 - - net gain $2875.00, total gain $14,150.00
2/15/10 Reversed to long at 1077.50 - - net gain n/a, total gain $14,150.00
2/17/10 Reversed to short at 1097.00 - - net gain $4875.00, total gain $19,025.00
2/18/10 Reversed to long at 1097.50 - - net loss $125.00, total gain $18,900.00
2/19/10 Reversed to short at 1106.20 - - net gain $2175.00, total gain $21,200.00
2/21/10 Reversed to long at 1107.60 - - net loss $350.00, total gain $20,850.00
2/23/10 Reversed to short at 1097.20 - - net loss $2600.00, total gain $18,250.00
2/23/10 Reversed to long at 1097.20 - - net loss n/a, total gain $18,250.00
2/24/10 Reversed to short at 1095.50 - - net loss $425.00, total gain $17,825.00
2/24/10 Reversed to long at 1097.50 - - net loss $500.00, total gain $17,325.00
4/6/10 Reversed to short at 1184.50 MODEL SELL SIGNAL - - net profit $21,750, total gain $39,075.00
4/7/10 Reversed to long at 1184.00 SELL SIGNAL NOT CONFIRMED - - net profit $125.00, total gain $39,200.00
4/7/10 Reversed to short at 1182.00 - - net loss $500.00, total gain $38,700.00
4/7/10 Reversed to long at 1184.50 - - net loss $625.00, total gain $38,075.00
4/7/10 Reversed to short at 1184.00 - - net loss $125.00, total gain $37,950.00
4/7/10 Reversed to long at 1178.50 - - net profit $1375.00, total gain $39,325.00
4/7/10 Reversed to short at 1178.00 - - net loss $125.00, total gain $39,200.00
4/8/10 Reversed to long at 1176.00 - - net profit $500.00, total gain $39,700.00
4/12/10 Reversed to short at 1192.30 - - net profit $4075.00, total gain $43,775.00
4/13/10 Reversed to long at 1190.00 - - net profit $575.00, total gain $44,350.00
4/16/10 Reversed to short at 1196.00 MODEL SELL SIGNAL - - net profit $1500.00, total gain $45,850.00
4/16/10 Short a second position at 1192.00...
4/16/10 Reversed net one long at 1190.00 SELL SIGNAL NOT CONFIRMED - - net profit $2,000.00, total gain $47,850.00
4/18/10 Reversed to short at 1186.50 - - net loss $875.00, total gain $46,975.00
4/19/10 Reversed to long at 1187.00 - - net loss $125.00, total gain $46,850.00
4/21/10 Reversed to short at 1197.00 - - net profit $2500.00, total gain $49,350.00
4/21/10 Reversed to long at 1200.00 - - net profit $750.00, total gain $50,100.00
4/27/10 Reversed to short at 1207.30 SELL SIGNAL TRIGGERED - - net profit $1825.00, total gain $51,925.00
4/27/10 Reversed to long at 1187.00 - - net profit $5075.00, total gain $57,000.00