BUY AND SELL SIGNALS AND OTHER MARKET PERSPECTIVES
Numerous posters here at SI have encouraged me to begin my own market thread to post my buy and sell signals, so here is it.
I will post my model’s buy and sell signals in advance of the market as they appear on the horizon. For example, a sell signal would be triggered when the market trades below a given price. If the market closes below that price, then the sell signal would be confirmed and I will take a short position in that market. To account for real time slippage, I will take a fill two ticks below that price and post that position as the thread’s official market entry and position. As well, a buy signal would be triggered when the market trades above a given price, and if the market closes above that price, then the buy signal would be confirmed. Again, to account for real time slippage, I will take a fill two ticks above that price and post the entry as the thread’s official market entry and position. I will keep an ongoing running tally of all profits and losses for these confirmed signals.
A signal may be triggered during the day, but if there is no confirmation on the close, then no position will be taken. But still, I will add a two point loss to the ongoing tally to account for merely taking the signal even though it was not confirmed. This would be the same as taking the signal during the day with a two point stop loss.
I will be using the front month of the SP futures contract; you can follow that chart here:
charts3.barchart.com
There will be occasional non confirmed signals, but that’s okay as long as the confirmed signals can generate more profits than the non confirmed signals would cost. Each trade is based on a single contract; each full point represents $250.00.
Frankly, I day trade on occasion and fade the model, but I’ve learned there is no great advantage in fading a model that does well on its own. When I fade the model, sometimes I make money, and sometimes I get hammered. I will only post the model’s official signals as we go. In the longer run, it’s simpler to take the signals and not try to over think these markets, it’s a lesson learned over time the hard way.
A technical model is not a crystal ball, it is only a windsock, it will tell you which way the wind is blowing at the moment, there is no way to predict for certain what the market itself will do. However, a good technical model will give you some advantage over flipping a coin. And then again, sometimes I wonder about that too.
I will also post weekend market polls to see where you think the next market direction will be. This will give everyone a weekly consensus of opinion about these markets. I value your opinion; I welcome all your market comments.
Please understand, this thread is strictly for entertainment purposes only, none of the posted signals are to be construed as a buy, sell, or hold recommendation, I am not a guru, I’m just a trader who thinks it would be fun to post my signals and see how well or how poorly the model does over the next many months.
This thread is very much like a town hall gathering of interested traders and investors, so I only ask that you be polite and courteous to other posters, anyone who cannot behave will be escorted out the door without ceremony. Certainly, there can be differences of opinion and heated debate, but there is never a need for rudeness.
Thanks and great trading!!!
GZ
Trades and current position:
1/21/10 short at 1124.50 |
