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========================================================================================================================================== I am changing the focus of this forum.... To date I have discussed 2 major charts in my TA quiver. They are good charts to predict the start/end of Bullish or Bearish runs. One is a Point & Figure Chart and the other is my so-called "Trigger" chart. I haven't quite finished the Trigger chart... Why? Well for starters there does not seem to be a lot of interest. I was an industrial salesman for much of my life and gave 2-3 seminars/week on average. I would preface each seminar saying that I had enough prepared material to last 30 mins... but on average the seminars lasted 2 hours. The extra 1.5 hours were a result of questions that I fielded from my audience. Everyone was satisfied participating in the presentation and I was repeatedly called to give similar seminars on any equipment they purchased from us.... it was win/win... they learned a lot that was specific to their needs... I learned what those needs were. There has been not a lot of questions... so I guess I explained my approach well :) The other reason these presentations take a lot of work... The final chapter on the Trigger chart has a multitude of inferences... On thinking about how to present the inferences, I came to the conclusion that I could not adequately cover everything... If you are interested then you will have to learn by example AND asking questions... So here is what I propose to do: I have developed a new scanner... unfortunately it will only do AMERICAN stocks... for which I am not happy about but... C'est la vie What I have done is create a Fantasy Portfolio! I started this back in late April, 2017. I have given myself $100,000.00 of monopoly money and created a portfolio of stocks over time. I announce my trades BEFORE the trading .... not after. If the share price range encompasses my price during the next few days I will assume that if it was a real situation it would have traded whether it is a buy or sell transaction. Doing this makes this fantasy portfolio as real as I can make. I will produce charts and explain my reasoning for buy/sell/holding as well I will update the portfolio value EVERY Friday. Why do I do this? It is to show that as a long term trader that I have the charting tools to make money.... ie: I show that I walk my talk. As I write this I am 7% to the good after a bit more than 6 months. I have been as high as 10% but we suffered a setback at the end of October... and you see how I handle that setback. A normal decent year for a long term trader is between a gain of 7% - 15%, so I am on track for a decent year. I only do American stocks in this portfolio at present. Most of the participants are American here so I am using stocks that relate to them. That does not mean I won't discuss Canadian stocks. In reality, being Canadian that is where my real portfolios are centered. Please ask questions...... I don't mind doing the work as this is testing my new scanning method right now and I think it is a good one... But I don't like talking to the wall :) ============================================================================================================================================================= I am a Canadian investor who specializes in analyzing stocks from a Technical Analysis perspective. I started doing this in the 1980's as a hobby. I was not an investor then but it fascinated me as to how stocks seemed to follow a pattern that could be observed and become predictable. I started with Point & Figure charts and spent years on weekends back then creating my own charts and seeing how they worked. The advent of the internet made life a lot simpler since free charting services became available towards the end of the 1990's. Point & Figure charts are considered old school now but I still use then as I find them very useful to identify long term resistance/support levels. I moved on from P&F charts to other charts/indicators/overlays. I struggled at first trying to apply what I was reading to real life examples. I found most writers were cherry picking their examples and I could find many many exceptions. I found that there were no end of indicators invented but while some were pretty decent even those gave false information. So I decided to look into combining various indicators together and observe what happened during these "lying" times. What I discovered was that if you chose your indicators wisely, and consulted them at the same time... you could find a consensus of opinion that was pretty good. I then in addition to my P&F chart, created 3 more charts with overlays and selected indicators. 1. "Trigger" chart: This is a chart for market timing of buys and sells. It uses Slow Stochastics, MACD and BBWidth as indicators with non-standard parameters. The main chart is a candlestick 6 month format with Bollinger bands and 50,200 SMA overlays. This is a chart of my own invention and is very reliable, predictable and I can "see" different things depending on the situation... I believe I can even predict the onset of a short situation and its end... though I am a long term trader and don't short stocks. I would like discussions about shorting with those that do to practice this aspect. 2. "Sentiment" chart: This is a chart I use for evaluating a stock after a bull/bear run to see how it is doing during consolidation of its share price. I use 3 more indicators, a line chart with a Parabolic Sar overlay. This chart is also part of an overall assessment of buy/sell/hold. 3. "Ichimoku" chart: Ichimoku is Japanese for "glance" It is a very complex chart that I still study to learn more nuances. At a glance you have an in detailed idea of how your stock/security is performing. I add two more indicators as well As far as a charting service is concerned I heartily recommend Stockcharts.com, this service in its free form is superior to anything to other charting services IMHO. Although I do use other services such as Barcharts.com for European stocks and Level2StockQuotes.com when I want real time charting for American or Canadian stocks Here are links to each free service: Stockcharts.com : stockcharts.com Barcharts.com : barchart.com Level2Quotes.com : level2stockquotes.com This is only part of the tools I have to work with... Why do I analyze charts for free? I am asked that a lot. I have done this on several websites with varying success... not with my analyses but with the response of those on the website. I don't tolerate bad behavior. If you are disruptive, I will warn once and then ban you. If you don't like what I have to say...stay out of this area... simple as that. Having said that though I am very impressed with those on this website. I have shown my charts in a couple of threads and they have been received with respect... very nice. I do this for a couple of reasons: 1. Education.... I went through over 30 years of study as a hobby and the last 15 years for more study/investing. During that time I have observed many many newbies to charting and investments in general. I will explain how I arrive at my conclusions in great detail. If you are interested you will get the benefit of my research and experience. You don't have to take my observations as gospel... but you will find that my batting average is pretty good. I used to be a teacher once in my life... I enjoy teaching. 2. Expanding my research: Every stock presents a new challenge when reading its chart. Technical Analysis is not static... at least with me. I still learn new ways of looking at charts when I look at them. By responding to you, I get more and more practice at improving my skill. 3. Finding good opportunity: Every now and then someone brings me a stock that is ready to breakout. I would NEVER hide that from readers but I will take advantage of that opportunity as well... after all my eyes cannot be everywhere :) I can look at stocks in any market place. My best advice will be on Canadian and American stocks, of course since I understand the North American market place reasonably well... but I have done European stocks in the past with roughly the same quality... I need more practice there :) Table of Contents for Educational Posts by Underexposed .......... Point and Figure Charts.....................................Trigger Chart................... Message #... Subject Matter............................ Message #... Subject Matter............................ ......1 ............... Introduction ...................................... 22 ............... Introduction.......................... ......3 .............. Creating a chart ............................... 22 ............... Moving Averages ............... ......5 ...............Tools for chart analysis .................... 27 ............... Bollinger Bands Introduction .... 13 ..............Sample analysis examples............. 43 ............... Bollinger Bands Signals .................................................................................... 80 ............... Evaluating Oscillating Indicators .................................................................................................................... Slow Stochastics .................................................................................... 81 .......................... MACD .................................................................................... 87 ................BBWidth .................................................................................... 99 ................Candlestick charts Please enter my thread and lets talk... If you are like me and trade in Canadian stocks on the TSX and TSXV then I have started a thread that is strictly on Canadian Stocks... a LONG TERM TRADING site with a Fantasy Portfolio of Canadian stocks like this one for American stocks Underexposed Canadian Fantasy Portfolio Underexposed | ||||||||||||
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