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Strategies & Market Trends
The Aristocrats (tm)
An SI Board Since January 2012
Posts SubjectMarks Bans Symbol
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Emcee:  sense Type:  Moderated
Silver Explorers / Developers: top 9 largest NI43-101 "resources" for development (2 Apr 2024).

Drillhole Interval Calculator from Exploration Insights

New Media Resources
Drill results with gold over 31 g/t, ordered by date
warrants A to Z

Sept 22, 2023 Begin Building A Running List of Tickers to follow, most with no real sense of urgency:

WFI = "Wait For It"... and work the sort while waiting... rank ordering potentials, looking for inflection points.
Look for new media sources and new tools useful in navigating the changing landscape.
AI enabled analysis and trading tools should be here in 3, 2... need models with programmable preferences.
AI enabled analysis... applying "rules that always work" in markets... weighted include/exclude sort functions.

The Plan:
Acquire: at market lows, add as markets swoon: Gold/silver explorers proving value. Hold long term.
Acquire: Gold producers or royalty cos. with best value, growth, and/or yield... at peak in interest rates.
Acquire: Value at a discount... not "value" discounted for a reason ensuring elimination from the market.
Trade: Energy with leverage as big changes occur at reversals: Oil down fast, gas up slow at market peak.
Trade: Single Issues based on fundamental changes and markets being markets. Seek outliers in the ugly.
Time: Follow events versus timelines predicted... and charts
Evaluate: Trends in specific industries or specific materials. Find competitors who are improving products and lowering costs at the same time.
Focus on: AI stocks, AI applied in X (particularly drug discovery), automation, EV materials, "technical" materials and "new manufacturing".
Evaluate: changing geopolitical risks.
Find: Small winners in big markets... the market is such a big place... not much required to "win" in a niche.

Current Trades: ...or not ?
? 9 Nov 2023 METC + but wait for it...
8 Nov DOLLF - Hecla buys in with $10 million...
7 Nov 2023 FATH chart pick / day trade
?Oct 25, CBIO, MBRX ?
? Oct 19, ICU ?
Oct 16, 2023 PLX - clocks ticking - probably blow out Quarterly report in mid Nov, Israel risks
Oct 16, 2023 EYEN WFI / Chart trader... check 1 Nov... a solid buy at the bottom of the market ?
Oct 16, 2023 ETWO - WFI / Chart trader... waiting on resolution of internal conflict: buyout potential
-FOXO - awarded a key patent after throwing in the towel. Suppression trade ? Latest 8K defines October "decision point" and likely future. DD here and here.
PLSH - subsidiary reports major success in Phase II on PTSD, depression
EUMNF 12 Oct Mn in Canada and Europe... announces govt support as strategic supplier
PLSH 12 Oct and not ME1.AX / COPHF (FINRA MM hold) Phase II results at Halucenex
? Oct 12, 2023 LIFW @$0.15 Reverse split 1:25 implements at close on Oct 12
Oct 3, 2023 AVTX @$0.13 +mgmt, +elim debt, +non-core product-line sale $ potential, 1 low risk in pipeline
- shareholders vote on R/S on Dec 5th... WFI
Oct 3, 2023 TETOF @$0.095 Crescat a 20% holder from Sept 29, drilling now
Oct 3, 2023 EQTRF @$0.09 brazil >50m@1g/t + 6x Cu porphyry targets w magnetics, soil anomalies
?Oct 2, 2023 BNOX @$3.73 $1.79/sh=~8MoBurn, float>out, co-Merck>$45M ?
?Oct 1, 2023 SKLZ @ $5... 1:20 6/23, game platform, buyback?, req DD checks:$, burn rate, mgmt, plan
+Sept 26, 2023 FEMY (@ $1.17) and latest update here (@$3 Sept 29)(SS) peaked at $4.65 in after hours

Clocks Ticking:
+FECCF Frontera results Nov 9... reports at 10 AM on Nov 10
GAU Q3 Nov 14, presented 15
+GROY: Q3 report reveal on Nov 14.
PLX: quarterly report in mid Nov... Israel risks

Oct 12: ESKYF, JUGRF, others... awaiting assay results "soon"...
+TBNRF / FOLGF / EEGUF / (OGFGF) / STOSF? Nat gas well completion Dec/Jan
+++RMLFF et al: Auction first round January 22, 2024, second round May 20, 2024, Finalized July 15
+ECOAF: "deal in works" Drilling Orange Basin, S Africa in 2024? New partner in Orinduik Block Guyana?
TMC: Nov/Dec bottom ? Jan effect trade ? July 2024 license application submission.
++RMLFF (#7, $1.48B/572M), GDRZF(#11, $1B): Court directed CITGO sale: 22 Jan 2024, 15 July 2024.
+NFGC: seismic survey Q3-4, Keats Zone mapped Q3-4, focused target drilling Q4-Q1 (+NFLDF, others ?)
GAU mine restart in Q4, 50% share = 60K oz/yr to 125K oz/yr in 2025 @~$0.60, ~0 debt +$0.25/sh cash
NAK USACE remand delayed to Nov, SCOTUS to take (?) Alaska v EPA case Nov/Dec
+TMQ - Q1- 2024 final SEIS, Record of Decision in Q2 - 2024.
OGGNF Q1 trade w/ drilling on Li brine target in Argentina
CXOXF Q1-2 news indicating decision on BP33
?ALMTF... time line here... and following post
? MNRLF - new mgmt and overly well qualified board members. "hello?"
Update: on Nov 8 MNRLF announced reverse split 1:10 and name change to Badlands Resources
+GROY - Q3 report reveal ~ Oct 15 ? PM trend reversal ?
+FEMY (+Oct 6, 2023 $1.25 to >$4) Clocks tick: Oct 14-18 sales pitch, %1.5B mkt, tgt >$7 2024/5
? -46% TTOO +early earnings report Oct 12: losses; burn rate, debt?, -1:50 rvs 10/22... done early... wfi
Wow. Did the reverse early... not at 1:50, but their second 1:100 in as many years
+ NEVDF: resumption of mill operations (Sept 23 ?) and ? report Cu production at Pumpkin Butte, but Cu.

Politically Obstructed Value vs Risk Plays: A correlate of "timing" in the clocks ticking on political calendars.
Specific issues, the point... but, regions a reality, so, Alaska is quite favorable, except the Federal government is obstructing, denying Alaska its equal treatment right to have an economy... not paying for the takings. Basically all of south and central America, outside of Brazil (monitor) and Guyana (positive), are "wait for it". Africa is mostly not worth the risk for juniors, although larger companies manage risks better. Namibia an positive exception. Mexico an overlooked potential in rapidly increasing risk profile... avoid.

+NAK... wait for courts to correct errors, or for change of government in Washington D.C. late 2024
+TMQ: pending outcome of court directed reconsiderations on environmental impacts... read the link

Next Cycle Concept Stocks:
AI here, here and here: NVDA (1 Mar 2023)
Applied AI: AUGX...ADBE.
Quantum Computing: IONQ (+AI), RGTI, ARQQ, QBTS,JOBY, QUBT
Urban Air Mobility: +ACHR, -LILM, -EVTL, -EH,
Defense/Space: RKLB, KTOS, AVAV,
Cathy Woods Stocks from bottom: alternatives ?
Robotics: IRBT, ISRG, CGNX,
PV/HTC/Battery Tech:
Lasers/Comms: COHR,
Optoelectronics/Photonics/Optical Computing: LWLG

Since June 2021: 3-D Print Tech / Additive Manufacturing: DM, SSYS, DDD, PRLB, ADSK, FSRD(BK), FATH, MKFG, NNDM, MTLS, VLD, ONVO, PRWYF, SHPW / SHPWW ($92 10/26), TTD.V, VJET, XMTR
Polymer Additive Manufacturing Market Revenue All Set to Soar, Reaching US$44 Billion by 2030-end: Fairfield Market Research

Yield SBDCs/REITs/Royalty:
GLAD 10.60%, HRZN 11.11%, SBR 11.13%, SLRC 11.24%, GIPR 11.7%, PFLT 11.53%, PSEC 12.22%, SCM 12.29%, DX 13.77%, OXSQ 14.05%, EFC 14.93%, AGNC 16.26%, EARN 16.55%, ORC 24.4%, ARR 25.7%, SJT 26.6%, HASI 9.4%,
FECCF P/E<3, Yield>20%, higher risk oil play in Equador/Columbia/Peru... Guyana offshore
JMXXF $0.12, Jupiter Mines, Mn, S. Africa, PE 4 (13.25%)
SQM Li 15.95%

Value: clro,asrt(-),gass(-),mfin(4.56),edry(-),cresy(7.13%), hhs(-),vygr(-),pshg(-),jfin(7.52%),lx(10.74%) value score 100, high Graham value, high fcf

Energy Bets
NRGU / NRGD and BOIL / KOLD... depending on the trends in the whither, the weather, and the whether.

Coal: METC (3%) / METCB (7%) (Nov 9, 2023)

Gold Camp pages need to be updated... gold shares heading into new lows and a bottom... when ?
B.C. Golden Triangle
Top Tier Gold Producer/Developer Picks:

SA 905M -0.20/sh insiders are selling (Nov 23)
IAUX 400M -0.40/sh ... (Nov 23) co-development deal on high % base metals should pay for expl/mining...
NFGC 636M -0.33/sh (Nov 23) poorly timed raise prior to news on seismic model guided drilling results
VITFF 269M +0.21/sh
SNWGF (BTG 10%), 452M -0.11/sh
PPTA... 199M -0.45/sh permitting, pre-development, currently target beginning construction mid 2024
SBSW... 3.6B +1.05/sh (7.96%)

all above "heading the right way"... see their webpages for updates. I think they qualify as "portfolio builder" shares... buy them, hold, add when the market dips... don't worry about them.

Royalty Companies:
SAND 1.33B +0.01/sh (1.27%) P/E 448 priced below where it was at the 2020 lows ?
+GROY 183M -0.14/sh (2.67%) losing less over time, primary producer cut back Q1/2, fixed in Q3/4
LITRF 429M +0.11/sh P/E 69 - Lithium: won ? 85% interest in Thacker Pass royalty litigation vs Orion

As always near the bottom of the bear market in metals and the miners... biggest upside in a market reversal occurs in shares of (penny juniors and) producers or royalty companies that will convert from losing money to earnings, and from pricing based on asset values to growing P/E multiples (and yields) as metals prices rise. GROY fits the bill to a T... but will most likely continue drifting lower... until it doesn't.

Producers losing money as commodity price suppression persists are typically beaten down by a factor of >10x... dollars to pennies... and will regain leverage in a multiple with pennies to dollars as metals prices rise above profitability thresholds. At the bottom, those "out of the money" win bigger post trend reversal corrections in the bounce than those still, if barely, profitable... as slim profit preserves the slim multiple.
Rising tides may lift (almost) all boats... but they don't lift them evenly. Biggest gains in trend reversals in the most marginal producers seems counter-intuitive... but, it's just math... if the trend reversal is persists.

From Wall Street Zen:
Producers ranked: Graham Fair Value % (lower better) / Free Cash Flow Yield (higher better) (1 Oct 23)

GAU (-91.86% / +0.34%), (0.00% yield)
SBSW (-86.24% / -0.21%) (+6.00% yield),
AU (-58.97% / +13.22%), (+1.18% yield)
SSRM (-24.85% / +0.22%), (+2.11% yield)
GFI (-33.36% / +14.24%), (+3.78% yield)
EGO (-52.87% / -57.87%), (0.00% yield)
BTG (+28.30% / +8.96%), (+5.54% yield)
KGC (+57.71% / +8.42%), (+2.63% yield)
Also: VGZ ?

Junior Gold Producers, Developers, Explorers: need to sort producers*** /developers into own group, rank order them
general pattern is still lower... in spite of gold/silver "hanging tough" as dollar rises: transition coming when ?

+CXBMF*** Nov 13, 2023 408M +0.18/sh $148M +cash flow: tgts 500 koz prod during 2025 – 2026E*
ongoing construction at Valentine + expl @ Nicaragua, Nevada and Newfoundland & Labrador + WA st.
merging with MGDPF
ESKYF Oct 12, 2023 48M -0.02/sh
SNWGF Oct 6, 2023 444M -0.11/sh
*+TETOF Oct 3, 2023 37M -0.01/sh
+MNRLF Oct 3, 2023 3M -0.01/sh
DC Nov 2, 2023 200M -0.19/sh
SNWGF Oct 3, 2023... 446M -0.11/sh coming off the highs... wfi... patience to be rewarded ?
BBBXF Oct 3, 3023 40M -0.04/sh
WRLGF Sept 26, 2023 74M -0.70/sh West Red Lake Gold... new owner of Pure Gold's mine/mill.
*+NKGFF Sept 22, 2023 87M -0.14/sh
?GOTRF Sept 22, 2023 57M -0.20/sh
JUGRF Sept 22, 2023 6M -0.01/sh
LOMLF*** Sept 22, 2023 126M -0.01/sh 300tpd to 500 tpd mid 24
SICNF Sept 2023: 10M -0.04/sh
*PPTA ... 199M -0.45/sh gold + antimony (+govt $) in Idaho... >8m oz... cost carried by strat/base metals ?
permitting now to constr start in mid 24 ?
TLRS... 8M -0.02/sh followed for roughly the last century, it seems... but, "closer than ever" cheap as ever.
+NFLDF... 9M -0.06/sh proving up solid continuity and continuation of values from NFGC's northern nodes.
+GORIF 2.5M -0.04/sh on the Appleton Fault on property inside NFGC's tenement
+ NKOSF 17M -0.01/sh on the Appleton Fault north of NFGC/NFLDF/SRKZF
+SRKZF 2M -0.14/sh Appleton Fault, raised survival $ in Oct, + subsidized critical metals project in Ontario

Silver (and cobalt) polymetallic Miners and Explorers
CCOOF Oct 3, 2023... WFI
KUYAF Sept 22, 2023
Oct 8, 2023 EQMEF
? DSVSF... Mexico risks appear "managed"... likely a good reversal trade.
FLMMF... " "
CBBHF - Aussie pure cobalt play


Tin and...
TKRFF / TK.V crazy zinc values + copper, silver, tin...
ALMTF tungsten, molybdenum, tin... Sangdong mine under construction in S. Korea
26 Sept 2023 at $0.32 - $0.36. $77M mkt cap = the $75M loan being drawn down to build the mine.
Tin... a proxy for semiconductor market demand as used mostly for soldering circuit boards...
AFMJF / AFM.V tin producer with a 7% yield
+SBWFF / CUSN.V Cornish is dewatering S Crofty mine, 4th highest grade globally
ATMTF tin producer with tantalum, lithium, in Namibia... seeking to expand production.

Cu: wait for it... look in around March 2024...and then give it a year or two...

Ni: wait for it... as per copper

19: GRFX
20 GRFX +27%, NGPHF +35%, FCSMF +20%, MGPHF +25%, GPHOF +10%, SYAAF +28%, LMRMF +22%,
23: GRFX -3%, NGPHF +17%, FCSMF +33%, MGPHF +22%, GPHOF -1%, SYAAF +39%, LMRMF +31%,

Lithium / Battery/ Electronic Metals explorers...
FSTTF - First Tellurium
SBSW - Stillwater East complex + DRD, etc.
+PGEZF Stillwater West complex Ni/Cu/Cr/Au/PGE's/battery metals
+TROYF vanadium, titanium, iron, and gold/PGE bearing sulfides in Stillwater proxy in S. Wyoming
+CHELF (lithium exploration, participation by former Lithium Americas' crew)
BNTRF lithium, cesium($300/kg), .33%=105oz/ton rubidium ($$$/ounce), tantalum in Newfoundland...
+SICNF partner with BNTRF, also finding high grade gold
MARVF in on the critical metals play in Newfoundland... and the gold play adjacent to Queensway...
AZRMF - Lithium w/ SQM $20 million investment
PWRMF - Lithium w/ cesium ?
LITRF - Lithium Royalty Company
Lithium: any making money mining lithium now are worth owning... avoid geopolitical risks.

Oct 8, 2023 CXOXF producer, fwd P/E ~9, Q1-2 '24 decide on "long life, cornerstone" BP33 development
Oct 8, 2023 LINRF takeover battle in looming war of billionaires
AZRMF "top five" potential ?

Lac Guyer Greenstone Belt:

Newfoundland: SICNF, BEX.V, others...

Nevada Clays: LAC, AMLI, CYDVF
Brazil Clays:

Li Majors:
LAC, LTHM, ALB(0.98%), PLL, SQM(15.95%), SGML, MALRF(2.91%), PILBF(6.92%), 9696.HK(7.81%), GNENF(3.37%)

REE: +APAAF (+gallium*), +UURAF, +LYSCF, +TMRC (+gallium*20%),+IDR, MP, +NMREF, +GOMRF


Lightweight Metals: Niobium / Scandium / Titanium / Magnesium / Cobalt / Other Alloys ???
NB... same old NioCorp only now on NASDAQ after merge with SPAC and 1:10 reverse...

Undersea Nodule/Pipe Mining: TMC,

Venezuelan Settlement Beneficiaries: RMLFF, GDRZF
The courts have granted requests to fund arbitration awards resulting from Venezuela's expropriations of foreign investments. What's that worth, though ? A lot more, now, since the State Department has been told to stop obstructing the courts in administering justice. Court directed asset sales of CITGO commence in October 2023, first actual sale likely around the 23rd, with sale events continuing into July of 2024. Unknown what the resulting distribution schedules will look like, but these two companies are near the front of the line in sequence (Rusoro 7th, only $3.5B ahead of them ) with priority based on time of filing... and are very likely to have awards fully funded.

Oil, Gas, and markets upstream and down...
RMLFF/GDRZF... oil indirect... waiting on legal process for sales of CITGO shares to fund arbitral awards
Nov 1, 2023 TBNRF Shale gas development in Australia


FEMY 26 Sept 23
SONN 1:22 reverse ?
BNOX 2 Oct 23

Other Wait For It Issues...
DRD peaked in May and is trending lower, so wait for it... don't have a bead on the specifics there for now.
HMY engineering a shift to Cu from Au... and changing CEO's... so, wait for it...

Generally still prefer a focus in N. America, for now... avoiding Africa in particular (with an exception in Namibia, which I still find appealing)... and not sanguine re anything south of the U.S. border for now... while not ignoring parallel insanity occurring in California, or Colorado... other states on a case by case basis. Nevada still up there as OK, Idaho good and improving... Montana I've lost track of the directional drift... but the trends in local influences worth noting. Still find Golden Triangle in B.C. compelling, even though in B.C., and find Newfoundland compelling, because in Newfoundland.

Above are "Things I'm Following / Just Looking At / Continue Holding / Continue Adding to Holdings", etc., in a list I will append over time... I won't post a list of "buys" until I see the market trends shift for the better... and currently still expect the market trends are likely to remain negative... at least through the end of the year, perhaps for another six months to a year... likely with PM's and miners moving higher before the market broadly. Some/most of these are not "new"... rather than things I've looked at before, as things I'd vetted previously are generally still valid enough picks... But, its time to have "a list" ready... making shopping easier when its time to go shopping... which might be coming "soon"... as they say while kicking cans down the road and looking at broken clocks.

September 16, 2023

Popping my head in, taking a look around... many things "cheaper" now than they were when I opted out of participation... a while back.

A couple obvious things to note... Gold and silver have held their own, and more, but have not kept up with inflation, so losing value in real terms, while the mining stocks have failed to reflect "relatively" strong metals prices, even as the price of everything else has been rising, which has only ensured rising costs outweigh the essentially stagnant value of precious metals in mines, as rising costs fail to reflect in rising metals and mine stock valuations. Base metals, though, have been in steep decline... almost all the miners I've been following are a lot lower today than they were... whether the metal is tungsten or copper... while cobalt, (and Jervois stock) meanwhile, has been obliterated, in result of China ramping up cobalt production from a mine they've violently taken over control of in the Congo... kicking out the government monitors... tripling production, and not reporting the volumes to the authorities... basically conducting a coup, if limited in focus to taking control from the government in the mining space they have taken control over.

Prior focus on "short" bank stocks has proven prescient... and, I don't think that's over yet... perhaps with the sprinkling of dainty slippers that have been falling thus far, soon to be followed by a cascade of falling hob-nailed boots. And, with knock-on effects inescapable, many market impacts likely to prove dramatic.

Biden and team WEF, with lackey Fed and Treasury support... continue doing all they can to ensure the dollar remains over-valued for now... even as its real sources of strength in solid systemic and geopolitical underpinnings are constantly being eroded away... while coordinated effort in throttling back the global economy to sustain it in recession to borderline depression persists. As I'd predicted previously, the global depression has been and continues to be unevenly distributed. Europe bearing the brunt of it, for now, with China having succeeded only in delaying larger future impacts that are gaining momentum now. The bull market in gold has been postponed... with most pundits having gone silent... only a few, like Jim Rickards, are out there persistently flogging "historically based market truths" that are likely to have broken clocks appear correct once again, soon...

As usual.. things take longer to be realized than pundits expect... the bankers key expertise is in "kicking the can down the road"... and they're very good at that. So, the depression Rickards predicted for early 2023 is still on its way, in September... and has not yet become recognized as an inevitability...

In context of that vid... its useful to note the banks are already insolvent, lacking only the completion of the recognition events that began earlier this year in a segment of smaller banks, and a few highly leveraged to the commercial real estate market. The lack of dramatic changes in markets, thus far... is taken as a proof that there are not dramatic shifts in potential occurring... a "soft landing" inevitable and "don't worry, they got this". And, that's wrong... The banks will do what they must to retain their control over the economy... but that has nothing to do with the publicly advertised goals in "targets".

Worth noting is that the banking system as a whole, not just the smaller banks as was true earlier this year, are now sustaining a persistent cash drain. Deposits continue shrinking at around a 4% annual rate of decline, recently... as people have become aware of the growing systemic risks, and have started to remove cash from the risks inherent in having it held within the banking system... where deposits held "for you" are now defines as "their" property and not "yours".

The next six months should prove interesting...

I'm not seeing any real need to revisit prior focus on gold and silver mining stocks... or the copper miners... as I think there's been relatively little real change in the last year... those worth looking at and owning have come down in price, as the better among them have continued improving their relative positions with successes in exploration and/or development over time. I think its mostly a timing issue on determining re-entry points in those, some of which are purely market driven... some key stocks far more constrained by government action preventing them from realizing proven values... NAK, TMQ, etc., the usual suspects.

As always true... there are some "making progress" for the same reasons others are not... as government seeks to foster success in those they favor, as much as they seek to punish or destroy those their whims require must be punished or destroyed. So, the oil patch remains a difficulty spot... while globally oil producers extract themselves from what is proving, under Biden, to be an excessively burdensome relationship with America and the dollar. Don't ignore the criminally negligent aspect in Biden draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a counter to the economic impacts of his brain-dead foolishness in energy policy.

Those favored, still, include anything "green"... so green energy gets the nod... although most of it is uneconomic, and both economically and environmentally unsustainable... much simply operating as Nimby driven transfers of environmental risks from one nation with higher standards, to another with essentially none... China voluntarily bearing the costs because one party rule is always single-mindedly ignorant, irresponsible, and both politically and economically incompetent.

Electric vehicles are an exception to the above... it largely having always been a function of time until the engineering in EV's enabled actually competitive alternatives to ICE vehicles... still leaving economic obstacles in the need for scaling in the changed requirements to enable expansion in production... And that means... yeah... you have to actually MINE the materials required... as the engineering doesn't matter without the matter.

I picked a couple of lithium stocks back in the day... as the transition first began... treating them as traders.

So, I'll start up again, here... with a quick, non-exhaustive, look at lithium stocks... I think I covered the pot stocks well enough a while back... as the initial investments made evaporated slowly... and should revisit those as a few appear to be finding footing now... And, then, we'll see where else a casual look leads...

But, for the most part... this is still a "wait for it" period... just popping up to look around... fully expecting that what I will find on this investment focused Ground Hog Day... is a need to continue hibernating a bit longer...


April 12, 2023 -

Have mostly opted "out" for now... as markets dither and wallow at transition points... which, without a solid trend in place, means "holding" is owning risk and not reward or its potential...

Out of ERY / NRGD etc., and out of KOLD and into TELL as noted in posts... requiring that trade be hawked as it tends to be volatile... while waiting for the tides to change... before moving back into BOIL, which likely made an interim low recently at $3.025... but, "lower" until both spring and markets break is probable...

The outlier in that view... perhaps... are gold, silver and the miners... AGQ, JNUG... mining shares... IAUX and NFGC doing well... As discussed, the metals and PM miners appear likely to sustain momentum now, even as we are at / near trend channel boundaries. So, even there... waiting for proofs that "this is indeed a new bull market" is prudent...

Wait for it is never a wrong call... as there is always another trade to be found... and there is no utility in owning risk, only...

And, with that... my focus is largely shifted to other things... while waiting, again... with only a few things to check in on once and a while...

I don't expect a long wait... but, the odds of big moves (other than in the next of the banks imploding) occurring prior to the Fed's next date with destiny in decision points... ? Probably not much worth taking the risk of holding, for now... and May is still a ways off... at which point "sell in and go away" becomes actionable... ?

Current / Updated short list:

Silver: AGQ 2X leveraged bull ETF, others similar for gold, etc.

Bonds: TMF 3X leveraged 20 Year Treasury Bull ETF... if / as they do lower rates, but, "flight to safety" is a term now modified by the awareness... that the guys in charge are morons... and quite a bit less smart than a pet rock.

Banks: FAZ


Top picks: IAUX (producer, P/E <4) ; NFGC (best in class explorer)

VULMF sold its Queensway adjacent interests to SSYRF, which then resold them to (pvt) Galloper Gold (seeking Canadian listing). Sassy refocused on a B.C. project near Eskay... but retains share interests in Newfoundland... including Galloper (8 mil shs) and GANDF Gander Gold (48.3% Sassy/14.6% Sprott)


Watching: MUX, TMQ, SBSW, DRD, DC, PAAS, BTG, CTCGF, SGLDF... many others as per post.

Lithium, Cobalt, "Battery Metals": Mostly Trade or EV market driven markets... cobalt with certified source issues... that might drive local sourcing requirements to gain compliance.

Top Picks:

JRVMF (U.S. near producer) Is cobalt bottoming ? Time entry to bottom in cobalt, and/or proofs of success in start of operations Q1 2023... Could see revenue of $0.07 in 2023 ? Profits... when?

GLDRF (U.S. cobalt + lithium explorer) Solid experience in team backing them. I'm holding from $0.03 to $0.04 (July 2022) and averaging up, as can... value is not as a short term trader...

PGEZFbuy and hold, buy more, hold more...

ERY (2X Bear) currently, [vs ERY (2X Bull)]
KOLD (short natural gas) currently, [vs BOIL (long natural gas) nearing record lows]

Prudence in risk management validates "wait for it" rather than holding any risk in a volatile market... approaching a major transition point... where bank driven "Crazy Ivans" are likely to enable large position trades. But, long term trade potentials are approaching rapidly now... at a time with atypical market drivers given "market events".
Expect natural gas to bottom seasonally spring to early mid summer... declines amplified by financial stresses and recession in both Europe and the U.S., and big players manipulation of the trade, but with longer term upside in positives with LNG shipping to Europe, driving a major long term repricing in gas in the U.S. Expect a significant long term low in BOIL will be reached seasonally... at the same time economies, markets, and seasonal demand tanks... Longer term, gas "tends" to outperform in a slow steady climb during recessions, while oil peaks just before or along with markets, and then declines rapidly... as demand variation is highly levered to economic variation, and production is hard to turn on and off (as seen in the negative prices in 2020) ... Oil price peaks and bottom usually to anticipating market peaks and bottoms by three to six months on average... but, with "noise"... making shorter term views unreliable. Use longer term charts for focus.

Oil (wait for it, probably lower from here, with markets lower, demand declining in recession):

Top picks in explorers:Each is a total crap shoot, future big gains, or to zero... upside performance dependent on big results in finding, risks more tied to the economy and the direction of the markets:
CGXEF (off shore Guyana, drilling),

ECOAF (off shore Namibia/South Africa),

RECAF (on shore Namibia, 100% of "Permian Basin" proxy)...

Watching Oil Producers:both have major Columbia geopolitical risks ;
GTE (P/E 2.24),
FECCF (P/E 2.93)

Watching total death spiral finance crap shoot:

PTHRF (???) Alaska (Biden) geopolitical risks, UK finance risk, management appear to be "error prone" /s... so financiers likely to end up owning it all... per convertible note financing plan.

Gas: BOIL/KOLD and related etf pairs... timing the market... just be on the right side of the trade...

Oil Services and related (wait for it): NGL (momentum ?) Should be lower with leverage as recession arrives. Oil Services will give a "second bite at the apple" as the ongoing market decline, on pause for the last 6 to 9 months... resumes with accelerations.

Uranium (wait for it) : Sprott's crew did great work in sorting these out over the last year or two... and, now, as the economy tubes and the markets tank... they should go on sale while following the trajectory of the economy and the larger markets for "industrial" stocks.. There "should be" opportunities in innovation proving improved technology to apply in the sector, leading to genuinely market worthy opportunities in "micro" power plants... and including Thorium based systems. But... will "they" ever allow it to happen ? Required change needs to occur before it will occur.

KVLQF / LURAF watching thefinance / property deal...


Future Winners in the AI space (wait for it): AI, NVDA More to come with others in this area... a worthy "watch" in seeking to find tech sector future overlords... look to pick winners to scoop up at the market lows... but, wait for market lows...
ARK funds... pay attention to what Cathie Wood is DOING in her management of portfolios... while ignoring everything she says about anything other than "picks"... particularly ignore anything she says that is related to Macro views of the economy. The funds, or her picks, will be values at the market lows... if they survive until then.


March 13, 2023
My prior update to the introduction (Nov 2021) focused on the Fed...

Today, after bank runs causing failures of banks, and the "course correction" imposed (again) to avoid a Fed induced total collapse of the financial system... the reason for that should be obvious enough ?

I think it is still "too soon to tell" what the impacts of the Fed's egregious mismanagement of monetary policy are likely to mean longer term. "Rates lower" and "markets lower" seems an obvious result of the devaluation of trust forcing a new market awareness of there being a couple of trillion (more, new) reasons for "lack of confidence" in the system. That's not what I would prefer, but (as they continue to roundly ignore what I would prefer) it is what is. And, among the other things that "is"... it is not bad for a reboot of market expectations about the value of precious metals. As I have been predicting... I still expect you might see the metals and their miners... bottom and move generally sideways (a clear benefit as markets implode) to higher from here... before beginning a new bull markets in earnest at the point that stocks bottom and turn higher.

In looking at "cyclic" drivers in isolation... we might still be 18 months to 2 years away from definition of "a definitive bottom" having occurred in the gold and silver miners... perhaps quite a bit longer than that in a clear bottom pattern being formed in "markets" generally. It seems pretty clear there is still a recession coming, that is likely to be "not the usual" in a mild downturn, as some still expect. I still expect that to prove... less bad in the U.S. than in "the rest of the world"... as that's still the tilt apparent in the playing field... for now... and not much that can be seen that is occurring now that will change that anytime soon. The "race to the bottom" in global policy trends continues, for now... with the U.S., in spite of greater transparency suggesting "worse than others"... still losing the race.
India the one potential bright spot in that gloomy picture... likely to occupy more attention here, soon.

The "timing" issues, since the market bubble peaked and has formed a high shoulder... can't be divorced from sustained "not good enough" policy from the Fed... (and only worse from others) still without that meaning you should expect anything more than "even less good" looking forward... with parsing of the "stag" or "flation" at any particular time... still swinging between "in" and "de" on the markets flation perception meters... although for now... "in"... while the implications of the policy shift over the weekend are indeterminate... for now, no one really knows what "Buy The Fucking Pivot" means in terms of rate expectations, even in the short term... nor is it clear that, whatever it means, its enough to undo the damages being done by feckless rate change policies.
Still leaves me thinking, as I was a week ago... that its a good time to have in hand a good sort of the "value" out there in the market... allowing taking advantage of bad days in markets to acquire good things in them.

So, creating a "short list" for now... that's focused on "quality"... quality management, quality rocks, and quality money... no obvious "show stoppers" in the situational or geopolitical... along with a few "near neighbors" (often physically) of those... mostly miners and oil...[with necessary timing caveat on oil... as oil prices likely peaking with markets... requiring those picked to "outperform" both peers and the likely "taShort list... in no particular order... off the top of my head... (will update on the fly over the next while)


Top picks: IAUX, NFGC


Watching: MUX, TMQ, SBSW, DRD, DC, PAAS, BTG, CTCGF, SGLDF... many others as per post.


Top picks in explorers: CGXEF, ECOAF, RECAF... each a total crap shoot, future big gains, or to zero...

Watching Oil Producers: GTE, FECCF, PTHRFper" in market demand].

FOMC schedule for 2022...

Monday, Nov 15, 2021: Things here have become a bit of a jumble lately. I've been traveling for over a month, while less focused on trading and finding value that others have missed for a while, again... And, with the flow in the news I've been posting having lost some focus, the effort made also loses definition with my not having done a "big picture" update and posting a focused "short list" on the intro page in a few years... I'll try to fix that this year with a year end wrap up... which I used to try to do annually... [before the markets became such a god awful mess of flagrant manipulation]... while posting less often, then, than I do now...

I'll try to get back to that mode at the end of this year... as it appears we're moving toward greater "clarity" in the markets "soon"... So, it should be useful to focus more effort from here on "big picture" issues and values worth holding... given the market conditions: inflation raging at 14% with the Fed et al lying about it... interest rates surging whether the Fed wants them to or not as people grow more aware of the inflation... and begin to act based on their awareness, knowing they're being lied to. Gold and silver prices still more suppressed than ever while other commodities soar. Self induced and still growing energy shortages caused by "green belief" that they can direct markets what to do... complicating supply chain disruptions... which appear they're going to inevitably grow worse as there is no serious adult leadership in the global economy... and hardly anyone (other than those few reading here) even understands what's happening and why... much less "what to do about it" that might work to fix it. For now, it appears the problems will be left to fix themselves... and that at least creates some predictability in likely failure modes... and, if you understand it... timing...

While gold has resumed higher... there are still quite a few mining stocks (and not just in gold and silver) that represent great values that are almost entirely overlooked by the markets... while energy stocks again look set to outperform inflation far better than others.... shockingly to many, including coal stocks... as the "green dream" fails by the numbers... and those pushing the agenda finally have begun to become less concerned with "doing the right thing" and more concerned with what other people are going to do to them when they figure out what they've done to us... out of zeal and cluelessness and not caring...

Expecting a turbulent end to 2021 and a vastly more turbulent 2022... seems reasonable... while the clocks keep ticking... and the stock market bubble grows longer in the tooth over time... and as the Fed's ability to sustain their juggling act grows weaker over time. But, inflation impacts stock prices, too ? So, inflation raging at 14% while stocks move mostly sideways... is a market in decline in real terms... while interest rates rising, even by a few percentage points in the near future... when inflation is 14% and accelerating... still has the real rate held deeply negative ? The Inflation we have is not "the result of a policy mistake"... it is the policy intent... the lie is "we didn't intend it"... when it is necessary to shrink the debt without inducing some other form of deleveraging... and, as inflation robs the poor... who will be the ones who pay for it through the tax of inflation... while rising prices also means a steady % rise in taxes... and a steady decline in the value of government obligations (Social Security etc.) that won't be allowed to keep up with the "actual" pace of inflation... only the "claimed" rate... then, that's what we'll get.

I think oil and mining stocks, while not immune to the market turbulence, are set to outperform for some few years... while gold shares will likely lead the market out of any decline that does occur... while an election looming in 2022 is certain to impose interesting wrinkles in the outlook, too...

I think the vast majority of investors aren't ready for the changes in direction that appear inevitable... including that long suffering gold stock bulls really don't even remember what it is like to have the miners sustain a move in a bull market... in more than a feint higher for a month or two without a subsequent collapse to lower lows being engineered by "the bankers"...

But, that's the summary view today... before I begin the work of taking a fresh look... Perhaps it won't change much from that view ?


Wednesday, September 22, 2021:
Rusoro Mining Announces Venezuela Voluntarily Dismissed Appeal Of US $1.62 Billion Judgment Rendered By The U.S. District Court In Washington DC In Favor Of Rusoro Mining


Sunday, March 8, 2020

Big day on tap for SQQQ / PASS etc., tomorrow... bigger still for the oil funds OILD, etc.

Unfortunately, I missed the first oil trade I discussed here by a day... as the OPEC meeting collapsed into an oil war on Friday, making the3X oil down ETF'sgive 25% to 30% on Friday... but, not in on Friday meant missing the open on Monday, with oil down $10 to $12 at the open... it shoulda been up 100%+ on the day.

The DOW should open down 1000... the S&P limit down... and then ? Things get ugly.

My intro below is wildly out of date...I'm seeing gold going higher... a re-monitization rapidly becoming more likely.GoLONG GOLD ROYALTY FUNDSbefore gold rises to make the payouts permanent. Silver not so much, as it isn't planned to be re-monitized, and the industrial demand is collapsing into the smoking hole the virus is creating of the global economy...

Others trades mentioned recently:Pork prices in China

The mortuary business:SCI remarkably resilient (looking lively ?) in the down turn

Below is old data, with dates, still worth being aware of...


Timely issues:

NMREF- (May 21, 2019 @ $0.08)
GOMRF- (May 21, 2019 @ $0.10)
FCF.v- (May 11, 2019 @ $1.05)
ALMTF- (Feb 21, 2016 @ $0.22) Tungsten... quietly advancing Korean project... major mine.
TRQ- (May 15 2019 @ $1.25) Copper in Mongolia... China risks.
EORBF- (May 28, 2019 @ $0.10) (Failed. Stick a Fork In It: June 24, 2019 @ $ ???)
KERMF- (May 21, 2019 @ 0.13)

For the Traders Who Are Market Timers to watch... pick your days...

NXXGF(June 2, 2019 @ $0.06)
SAND(May 24, 2019 @ $5.07)
PAAS(June 2, 2019 @ $11.17)
HL(June 2, 2019 @ $1.37)
GTE(May 2019, below $2) (June 27 @ $1.57)
KL(Sept 2015 @ $4.15, June 2, 2019 @ $35.00)
AGI(June 2, 2019 @ $5.00)
PXMFF(May 30, 2019 @ $0.03)
PXPEF (May 30, 2019 @ $0.11)

FECOF (May 30, 2019 @ $ 0.005)

OBNNF/ OSK.TO (June 27 wait for it at $2... it'll probably happen) Osisko... Kirkland Lake owns a stake...
TLRS(June 22, 2019 @ $0.07)
CPNFF(June 22, 2019 @$0.43... worth watching) Now at $0.35. EuroSun / Romania. Advancing a mine... now at $0.28 (30 July) and still watching. Short history on shares a bit of a red flag for now.
DNGDF(June 22, 2019 @ $1.30... ) Dynacor - yields 2%
CGOOF(June 27, 2019 @ $2.90... with a short wait for it...) Columbia mine development now funded.
PIRGF(June 27, 2019 @ $1.57... with a short wait for it...) Premier Gold Mines
FNLPF(June 27, 2019 @ $11.00... with a hmmm... waiting... world's largest silver producer w/ a 2% yield) At $8 on 30 July even with silver prices rising in leaps... why is that ?

Silver was lagging gold pretty badly, not now (July 30 2019). Still a few project management issues here:

MAG(June 27, 2019 @ $10.66 ) Partner 44% w/ Fresnillo (above) on new mine, finding new discoveries... less hobbled by the "hmmm" issues.
FSM(June 27, 2019 @ $2.89) new mine will double production... silver still lagging gold so timely shares
AG(June 27, 2019 @ $7.77... with a wait for it... lower in a week or two ?) Timed right anyway...
CELTF(June 27, 2019 @ $1.47) Egyptian gold mine... highest yield in the space at > 8%... w/ gold rising.
HGHGF(Jun 22, 2019 @ $2.25) Russian gold mine... yield > 7.0%...

Current Strategies and New Trend Plays:(from 21 May 2019)

Elephants in the RoomSept 8, 2019

Elephants Dancing to Trump's Tune... in The China(s) Trade(s)Sept 10, 2019

Still staying out of the major markets... waiting for it... but starting to dabble in the shallow end, again, in April and May 2019... by going long select resource stocks that have generally not been participating in the stock market bubble. Some were and are good value, profitable, and low PE stocks. Following up on a few picks in April and May, I threw a blanket and converted all the miners I follow, and the larger group of those that I don't among the silver and gold stocks, to buyson June 2, 2019.

HREE:Heavy Rare Earth Element Stocks... a particular trade war risk with China the main supplier.

NMREF, (May 21, 2019 @ $0.08) Up 71% today.
GOMRF(May 21, 2019 @ $0.10) Up 32% today.

Gold Development:

NXXGF(June 2, 2019) A Red Lake Ontario project, and two plus west African projects... experienced management... another SAND backed project.

KERMFA buy (May 21, 2019). Kerr MinesProduction in 2020? Expanding resource in higher than anticipated values. I've followed Kerr for many years, still have a few shares as a result of an acquisition some years back. Trends are quite positive, and the chart reflects that... on bad days in the market, which we ought to be having more of, you should be able to buy a share for a dime.
SAND Sandstorm Gold Royalties(May 24, 2019) A royalty company that's been doing pretty well in a tough market... best way to buy higher value properties with a higher than average payout potential and better leverage in up markets... in a pairing with unassailable diversification of business and geopolitical risks. The miners find it hard to find money in meaningful quantity a tough market... giving SAND a good ability to pick cherries now.... while the depressed prices for metals and mining shares now... should accrue in appreciated values in better market conditions as investments made now enable future production with a few years lag. They're making money now, but the PE is up there... so another one worth waiting for to pick up on really bad days in the market. Their Asset Handbookis a valuable resource for many reasons.

FWIW I'm seeing a lot of the properties I've followed over the years listed in the handbook... making it worth looking at the current owners of those properties I've had reason to have liked in the past... as they're being supported in enabling development now. A quick look through shows they're in on Turquoise Hill
(TRQ) and have an interest at Relief Canyon, which I've followed since back in the 1980's, as Pegasus Gold's core property, and through a series of owners after, including a failed venture secretly funded by illicit Chinese money, but ending up with Pershing Gold, who just got bought out by U.S. Silver's remnant, now as America's Silver Corporation (USAS), which, following negative management changes, I bailed out of back in 2011 or 2012... at (reverse split adjusted) around $27... now its at $1.70... and still worth avoiding IMO... as shareholders aren't the intended winners there. Better to own SAND.

Silver Producers:

PAAS Pan American Silver Corp.(9/2015) (AUQ >LSG>TAHO>PAAS)Covered here. Been following each of the components for a long time, and like all of the parts... Lake Shore a good value, Tahoe's properties will reward PAAS nicely if they can work through and resolve the foreign government risk factors. Still more dependent on silver prices than many silver producers... and silver prices are giving few reasons to hurry... so the wait will be conditioned mostly by the timing in resolving the practical issues... succeeding in turning the corner at existing prices will make them a buy.

HL Hecla(June 2, 2019) has been a "wait for it" for me... for about as long as I can remember. Withthis updatemaybe its finally getting close to crossing the threshold. Risks from here... appear manageable... so mostly down to an issue of price and timing... calling the bottom... and being patient.

Oil Producers:

GTE... (a watch on 6/25/2015) (Buy in May 2019, below $2) Yahoo summaryOil production in Columbia, soon in Equador. Recent acquisitions and share buybacks... pick your entry... a steal @ $2 or below. I like the cross border move into Equador... for diversification of risk and distribution potential. Shares 80% held by institutions, only 1% by insiders, 1% short. Looks like steady growth, but $ might not fall to the bottom line to grow the earnings. Junior exploration risks... but real exploration upside potential as an operator, too. Markets in oil require timing entries with a correlation between corporate success and market price trends.

Special Situations:


EORBF(May 28, 2019) Yahoo financeUpdate on another I've been following awhile...

Gold Producers:

KL (9/2015) Yahoo financeAcquired Osisko (OSKFF et al) and the ramp in price over the last three years suggests KL may have one of the few management teams capable of doing more than just surviving the current environment... (May 27, 2019) announces a share buy back of 21 million shares... 10% of the float.
A historical note: the OSKFF acquisition incorporated Oban Gold, which took in the assets of NioGold(NOX.v/NOXGF: Sept 2, 2015)... who spun off GOMRF.

AGI (9/2015) Alamos Gold acquired AuRico (AUQ) to become a mid tier in 2016.

PXMFF(May 30, 2019) Philex Miningis a Philippine based copper and gold miner, that I've covered in a rough outline postedhere.

Base Metal Producers:

ALMTFAlmonty Industries. Been following it for years. (2/21/2016) Looks like they've finally gotten all the kinks out of their planning, the acquisitions have been absorbed, and things are working... they're finally mining and making money at it ? Timely as a producer of Tungsten... with supplies tightening... China supply risks.

TRQ(May 15 2019) Found this randomly... butlike the way it looks.

FCX Freeport-McMoran(June 13, 2019 @ $10.83) The "WORLD’S PREMIER PUBLICLY TRADED COPPER COMPANY" A PE of 8 and yields 2%. Richard C. Adkerson bought $1.74 million more of the mining company’s stock last week. It’s his first open-market stock purchase in a decade.

Natural Gas Producers: (WAIT FOR IT)


DRIP Resources:



Below the line above isOutdated Info.
Some will be updated and moved above the lines when (if) I get around to it... the rest left for reference use and historical interest:

Here's the list of "picks" as of now (2 Sept 2015): PAAS

Minerals and Miners:
silver producers: HL, SLW, EXLLF, RVM (acquired)/HL, SMNPF (US Silver + Scorpio Gold)
development: RTRAF, WFEMF / ALMTF (W), MDW, TCEGF, WLEF.L (W/Sn), CKB.V (or, CVXHF)
other explorers: KOOYF/KTN.V (Ag), SRSR (Nb), SVBL (Ag/Zn), TKRFF/TK.V (Zn+6)
royalty plays: MTAFF(May 24, 2019)...MTLI (Zn), SLW, CCNMF (acquired), ATBYF, FFMGF
Hobby Scale Mines: LKAI

"Government Takings / Arbitration" as Legal risk plays: TMIBF, BRLGF, GDRZF, PAWEF, KHRIF
BK risk plays: SGRCF: (now defunct, assets liquidated).

Declines like those in mining and minerals over the last few years, or like that currently occurring in oil and gas, are wildly disruptive of company plans. Usually, plans being disrupted means only bad things, and the stocks, quickly or not, come to reflect the changed value in the changed potentials... while occasionally the disrupted plans result in stranding companies that have raised the money for the projects, but haven't yet written the checks. A useful focus, on occasion, is to the test the market detritus following a massive move, looking for those companies who have been divorced from their plans, and have been punished for either the story or the market falling apart, when they haven't been divorced from the cash they raised and still hold. Companies often trade for less than value in cash that they hold, which is rational when neither the value in cash nor the company are likely to survive long. Rarely, though, you find a situation where the management aren't pilfering the cash, and they're still capable of creating more value rather than less by using it.

A short list based only on screening, is a place to start... and, then, each "opportunity" has to be vetted for the actual value... perhaps the cash reported isn't real... perhaps its real, but already committed to a deal that can't work... etc. More often than not, management who screwed up a deal that left them holding some pile of cash... will rapidly screw up again, obviating any utility in considering that cash as a value rather than a risk. More often than not, a pile of cash without a project means a lure management can't resist, and the cash will slowly whither away, pointlessly paying salaries. Cash in the wrong hands is worth less than face value. Management trumps geology... particularly in the negative sense. And, management integrity trumps the value of cash... particularly in the negative sense. However, a good management that wanders into a windfall in a sale of assets, or that otherwise is left with cash they know how to grow... always well worth looking for.

The other comparable capacity... results when producers (as in gold, or oil) survive the downtrends and are still making money when less successful competitors are forced into selling high quality assets for pennies on the dollar... because they failed in getting them into production... and can't raise the money in the changed environment in the market. The list above is heavy with producers surviving or thriving in the current market... and with developers moving ahead inspite of the market, because of the quality of their assets. The rest, then, is about price... meaning be patient, in order to "buy low"... and timing, in order to synch decisions to buy with events driving new market lows.

TMIBF and BRLGF are a subset of that first focus... TLR another, as is AISCF, in having management that work that angle of looking for other companies with usable cash in hand... doing that "for you" as an alternative means of financing their own survival while sustaining their efforts... gaining cash resources by merging with cash rich companies at the bottom of the market... but, otherwise, I've not worked the angle in a while... and should revisit the focus, soon...

The Aristocrats(tm): Market Dogs The Aristocrats(tm): Bellwether's Shipping Stocks Revue
Shining Tree Gold Camp Penny Pinchers The Aristocrats(tm): Advertising, Convergence, Privacy and Profits Rare Earth Elements and Exotic Metals

Before considering market participation... In 2015, given all banking appears to be based in or a practice of fraud... re-thinking your banking relationships has to be a first priority. Rules changes that have ALREADY OCCURRED mean your saving and checking accounts are again being held at market risk, liable to being seized in the event your bank fails. They call that "bail in"... but, what it means is... the bank takes your stuff and calls it theirs. Are there banking alternatives and alternative savings methods ? Not as many as you might hope. Here, a list, including a couple of related articles:

Free Lakota Bank The Free Lakota Bank Conspiracy Theory Bullion and Bandits: The Improbable Rise and Fall of E-Gold
State Bank And Intra-State Commodity Depository Reserve
The banks are pretending there won't be really bad things that happen when people figure out that they've been defrauded, AGAIN, by the banks. And, notice how the government didn't keep investors safe in the above patently fraudulent instances ? Keeping cash accounts, savings, and checking accounts away from major banks... makes perfect sense. Keeping some cash hidden in a home safe... makes sense. Using a Credit Union instead of a major brand bank... will lower your risks dramatically (but not eliminate all of the systemic risks)... and, there's no reason you should ever put money into a bank... to take LARGER risks than you would by keeping it secured yourself. Don't wait for a bank failure... and bank runs... before figuring out that the world of banking has changed... in ways that transfer all of the risks the banks take... to you... so that you will lose your money if they fail.

I think we're at or near the end of the mid-depression peak... 2014-2015 comparable to 1931-1932... with Fed policy working as intended, only as long as you recognize that what is intended by policy is to drag things out longer... 1929 to 1932 being only three years... 2008 to 2015 being seven years. What we are seeing in the result now is a success in sustaining the efforts made in NOT changing the rules that govern banking, as they continue on trend, with the only implementation of changes being those that roll the rules back to what they were before 1929... That is what we are doing, rather than fostering proper fixes of things that are broken.

Worth noting in your own banking relationships... is that a change back to "the way things used to work" might even make some sense... but, it can only IF you are also TELLING EVERYONE what the changes in the rules in banking MEAN to them, while you are making them... so that they have an opportunity to alter their choices, and so you aren't setting people up for awareness of the changes being imposed on them only at that point when their banks fail and their checking and savings accounts disappear.

Given a choice, as a consumer... between banking with a fractional reserve bank that claims to own its customers deposits as capital of the bank... and banking with a full reserve bank that guarantees its own solvency and the integrity of deposits (with the caveat that normal business risks still exist, including whether or not the government claims to have properly insured any of your deposits)... consumers should be able to make the determination about "the rules" that govern banking for themselves, by making choices to bank with those following rules that make the most sense in addressing customer needs... while allowing customers to avoid taking risks they don't want. Reality is... there isn't a free market in banking... when consumers are denied the option of making a choice about how to do their banking, who to bank with, or, where.

Markets Outlook:
Peak China in 2014. Much of the world geared to hope the pace of growth will be sustained... It won't be.
Commodity producers growth in particular is reaching limits as the pace of growth in China's demand cools.
Expect hard times to drive accelerating consolidation... the rich will get richer... the rest will just go away.
Explorers... have already filled the pipeline with minerals required for a pace of growth that won't happen.
Hard for some to understand... but, it is still possible that we're nearer a long wave market peak in mineral exploration stocks than a bottom. Explorers as a class are still generally over-valued... still clinging to the hope of 2010. There are exceptions... in tungsten, niobium, particular REE, a few other tech metals with demand growing. Gold and silver aren't an exception, but, the link to risks in monetary issues gives them separate timing issues... already profitable producers will bottom before the prices of their commodities, as costs are declining faster than the values produced. And, reality is that acquisitions are accelerating now, as majors are entering the market buying juniors with solid, better quality resources... The sector may not be at the bottom yet... but gold has broken resistance on a move higher... and "select" companies, focusing on those that are buy-out candidates... makes sense in the current environment.

Junior Oil Producers are going to be in for a tough year, or couple years... we're just coming off the peak.
Ahead of the Herd (these links have been here for years now, it seems):
Are E&P Companies Coming To Their Senses About Gas?
Barite Market Tight as China Supply Decreases

Barite obviously not in growing demand, right now... Worth looking at... long term... are those shale potentials that might be competitive at current prices. U.S. companies should be looking overseas for shales they can drill, frac and produce at a profit even with lower prices.

LNG focus in U.S. still worth paying attention to as energy markets crater... but timing matters.
Nat Gas Midstream Stocks still worth holding and watching for new or re-entry points.
Nat Gas looking for a bottom for years. Capping the shale oil boom might be the catalyst required... but, that's still not having gas likely to prove out as a play before the energy stocks hit bottom again, and harder... A long tail on established horizontal production already undertaken could mean it will take a year or two from now before you start to see significant declines in gas production that are significant enough to force demand to drive the prices higher... but, watch the numbers... mid summer 2016 might finally see us reaching a low point in prices in the natural gas markets... when production is going into a steep decline.

Shipping Stocks as bellwether still sinking slowly, and keeps settling until just before economic recovery arrives. Given current trends... that could be another seven years...

Leveraged reverse interest rate and market averages plays (charts)
Leveraged reverse stock index plays (charts) SQQQ my guess is for tough sledding in early March
Selected REE and Niobium stocks (from Feb 2014) sector is bottoming...
Silver and Gold Exploration stocks - buy the survivors, but, after they've survived.
Silver and Gold Producer stocks - anyone still making money right now is worth looking at.

Data Feeds, Screeners and Charts, etc.
Guru Focus
Natural Gas Futures Chart U.S. ETF Screener, All Screeners and Stock Lists, Leveraged 3X ETF List
Liberated Stock Trader
Tip Ranks

Library of Essential Awareness:

EBay: " How To Lie With Statistics"

Open Library:
Memoirs of extraordinary popular delusions. Volume I
Memoirs of extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds. Volume II
(discussed in this post from January 12, 2021) Utilitarianismby John Stuart Mill
Principles of Political Economyby John Stuart Mill
The We alth of Nations (an inquiry into the nature and causes of). by Adam Smith
An essay on the principle of populationby Thomas Robert Malthus
The theory of money and creditby Ludwig von Mises
Bureaucracyby Ludwig von Mises
Human action a treatise on economicsby Ludwig von Mises, Bettina Bien Greaves
The principles of political economy & taxationby David Ricardo, M. H. Dobb
The high price of bulliona proof of the depreciation of bank notesby David Ricardo
Proposals for an economical and secure currencyby David Ricardo
The road to serfdomby Friedrich A. von Hayek
The constitution of Friedrich A. von Hayek
Individualism and economic order. [Essays]by Friedrich A. von Hayek
Monetary theory and the trade cycle. by Friedrich A. von Hayek
Collectivist economic planningcritical studies on the possibilities of socialism by Friedrich A. von Hayek
Monetary nationalism and international stabilityby Friedrich A. von Hayek
General Theory of Employment, Interest and Moneyby John Maynard Keynes
A treatise on probabilityby John Maynard Keynes
A treatise on money.-- by John Maynard Keynes
Value, price and profitby Karl Marx
Das Kapital(1867) The people's Marx abridged popular edition by Karl Marx


Cobden Centre

Tom Luongo Gold, Goats 'n Guns
Clif High Explains the Way the World REALLY Works
Prof. Antony Davies: Why Government Fails, Explained
Epsilon Theory
Steve Keen: The Economy is NOT in Equilibrium
Johnny Liberty Explains the Structure of the Economy
Creditors in Commerce
How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio(ie. "get ready.. here it comes"...)
Psychopath vs. Empath: the War Between Truth and Deception
The Truth About the Law
Valorian Society
Cultural Awareness / Others World View:
South Park Underpants Gnomes Business Plan
Rabbit Holes:
Veterans Today
Bill Cooper

The Dark Side:
Citron Research
The Street Sweeper

Bruce Wilds
Steve Keen
The Economist: Podcasts(especially "Moneytalks"... but going subscription only soon)

Basic News links:
ZeroHedge DRUDGE REPORT 2012® The LA Times The Atlantic Wire IMPLU News
News Spank The Guardian: Business The Telegraph: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Bloomberg The Canadian Business Journal The Globe and Mail Financial Post

Deal and Niche Focused News:
NY Times: Dealbook Wall St. Cheat Sheet Business Insider World Finance Wealth Wire Reuters Buyouts The Reverse Merger Report The Deal Pipeline (not oil focused) Insider Cow The Stock Gumshoe Streetwise Professor The Market Ticker ® Commentary on The Capital Markets Cliff Kule China Investor Investing Daily

General Market Perspective and Situation Awareness:

Credit Bubble Bulletin Peter Schiff Miles Franklin The Daily Bell Early Warning Nouriel Roubini at The Guardian Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor Blog The Joris Luyendijk Banking Blog Deep Capture WolfStreet MaxKeiser MaxKeiser: Dollar Collapse TSI Blog Armstrong Economics TheMoneyIllusion Paul Craig Roberts Secrets of the Fed Full Reserve Banking David Stockman Orlov The Daily Reckoning The Speculative Investor ZIRPQE Wall Street On Parade blacklisted news

The Economic Ninja

Blogspot: (23 of the) Top 25 Financial Magazines and Publications
Ten Best Financial Magazines
Business & Finance Magazine Subscriptions

The Maverick of Wall Street
Traders Magazine

Sectors: Investor Intel

Graphite and Graphene:
Investor Intel
Industrial Minerals

Science Daily New Scientist TechCrunch
The Robot Report

CoinUpdate MintNewsBlog

Canadian Mining Journal
Gold Investment News Gold Sheet Mining Directory Infomine's InvestmentMine Mining Markets and Investment Gold Review Commodity HQ Rare Metal Blog Mineweb Silver InfoMine Republic of Mining MiningWeekly(North America) Clive P. Maund Gold Reports

Oil: The Oil Drum: Discussions about Energy and Our Future Rigzone Derrick News and Dealflow (oil focused)

Economics and Theory of Political Economy:
Mises InstituteAustrian School Libertarians
New Economic PerspectivesKeynesian Liberals


OpenCorporatescompany search page

Shadow Stats
Babylon Todayincl M3 post 1995
St. Louis Fed Research
Charts from the Bureau of Economic Analysis
Now and Futures
FDA New and Generic Drug Approvals
Today's Issues Changes Index
SEC News Digest
CCAA Records
Credit Risk Monitor
Inflation Rate Calculator
Gronbach Demographics

Links to Regulatory Information, Filings and Exchanges
SEC Main Edgar Page

List (to be edited, suggestions welcome) of Other SI Strategies & Market TrendsSite Links:
Dividend investing for retirement
Beat The Street With SI Traders
Value Investing
50% Gains Investing
Technical analysis for shorts & longs
The New Economy and its Winners
E-Wave and TA Workspace
The Financial Collapse of 2001 and Beyond
Ride the Tiger with CD

Investors Education Links:
Hard Right Edge
Now and Futures


Focus, Purpose, Mission Statement, or, you know, whatever...

News and mostly original contributor analysis with a focus on enabling strategic advantage gained from better quality awareness and better quality thinking about global opportunities as enhanced awareness enables finding and addressing them.

News, for our purposes here, means things that are "new" and that tend not to be the featured focus of mainstream media, but are more the sorts of things you think they should be focused on that they're not. News naturally means reports making you aware of things about which others would certainly rather have you be, and remain, unaware. All news has a bias which it is useful to properly identify. Welcome will be any posts making us aware of relevant and expert quality news sources which I can consider adding to the list of news sources.

Mostly original contributor analysis means... you and I post what we think. That will not mean excluding all discussion of what others think, as not topical, particularly when they're right, and the opinion you express and share is "outside the box" and justifiable, but, also those which are wrong if the post explains why that is true. Knowing what others are grossly wrong about, and why, is often just as useful, in itself, as being right when others are not.

The world changes, and to determine the best moves to make at any given time, a very large degree of honesty, realism, flexibility, and better than average awareness of the world are requirements. So, while the focus here is on "strategies" it is not intended to be limited to any one strategy, but, to the RIGHT one for now, given... your analysis of the situation.

That broad focus will require that specific "picks" should be properly defined as "trades" or "holdings" and in context of the strategy that applies to them... but, otherwise, be as specific or general as you like while EXPLAINING WHY using something more than your assertion of an opinion as a justification... to keep the focus on the rational behind the strategy being applied.

The bias here will still be toward due diligence and value investing, and specifically excluded are "strategies" that depend on trading skills alone, or trading of worthless penny stocks purely through "pump and dump" or other "promotion". This is not a "hot tip" site for traders. Technical analysis is a useful and necessary tool and topic. Success in investing requires trading skills, and it is proper to assume that "chart skills" and trading decisions that are likely to succeed, should also be a big part of the timing in any investment decisions, on entry and exit points, with or without other consideration of in depth industry and issue specific fundamentals.

Buy low. Finding "the next big thing" while it is trading for pennies and heading for dollars is a key focus here... but, we don't want to be stupid about it, and will work to minimize the holding risks and maximize the returns by using every trick in the book... that is properly and honestly described and legitimately employed. Given that focus, diversifying holdings and strategies is a proper subject, but not diversification for its own sake, without diversification meaning within the range of the types of opportunities being considered, here.
There is roughly ZERO justification for "talking your trade" here... in the way that is commonly understood as meaning saying the opposite of what you believe in order to enable some unique benefit for yourself by lying to or misleading others. If you have to do that to make the trade work for you... it means you're wrong enough on the fundamentals to be worthy of ignoring, here, so take that elsewhere. Picking well is one thing. Buying low is something else altogether. Both matter, and both are proper goals in the focus here, and proper subjects for discussion... keeping in mind not "talking your trade" here, please.

I started posting my investment thinking on the internet for one reason... which is that committing yourself to saying what you are thinking and doing in a public post, is the best possible "check" on your performance with a tool for holding yourself accountable... to yourself. That focus assumes you care about being right, and will try to be. And that focus is the reason for the rules, here... that will require honesty, not advocacy, as an entering argument. I've found the reason valid... and the effort worthwhile... but, the effort has suffered from lack of a fixed home.

As my effort expanded, I found it useful to try to post "big picture" updates, and then conduct an annual review process to reconsider prior updates. That effort "worked" through 2009, but since then it has been limited by the fact that reality seems unconcerned about my interest in an annual review schedule, or otherwise, by my own inability to synthesize new ideas on a schedule, when I'd like to have them, rather than that occurring when it does, as a function of an ever changing reality that has its own pace.

So, that's the focus here... not quite a vanity site... but, a home base for me to post my musings... collect relevant bits from others... and engage with others who have similar interests.

Oh, the title: "The Aristocrats"
The title "Aristocrats" is first a critical comment on the nature of the markets and its participants... and therefore, given the nature and quality of the joke that goes by that title, it is used as a similarly descriptive and self deprecating bit of humor about the nature and quality of the people in markets, as in show business.

The point is... wide ranging, and no holds barred in being bluntly to brutally honest... with an historians focus on an "insiders" aware (and thus honest) view of our subject, warts and all... including that "Banksters" might be a suitable proxy here for "Aristocrats" while including a view of them that is "a form of social satire aimed at the decadence of the aristocracy". It is not an invitation to joke retelling or vulgarity rather than realism here, although original humor in one's outlook, approach and conversation is always appreciated.

* VERY LONG Disclaimer Note: My current picks and things I'm looking at, holding, thinking about, etc., are not updated in real time... or anything close to it. For obvious reasons, I will find it useful to not mention everything I look at, everything I buy, sell, or hold. Similarly, I'm not intending to post a target list to make life easy for those seeking to hurt me in low float trades. The market is full of assholes, and some of them have more market power than you do. It's smart to not make it easy for them to hurt you... or worthwhile for them to try. I think that means you don't bother with trying to avoid pissing them off... you just make it pointless for them think about caring. So, while I'm honest (often brutally honest) in my analysis and what I post, don't expect I'm going to be overly stupid about it... but, I am not going to be bullied or cowed... by threats, or hurt by others stupidity ? Things I mention may or may not be things I own, and that may change at any time without notice. I tend to trade first... and talk about it later... on a daily basis... rather than trading and talking at the same time. So, often the daily focus in any discussion is "post game". Or I will often talk first... and trade later... on a longer term basis. I have been known to talk about a stock for a LONG time before thinking I know it well enough to buy for anything other than a short term trade. Don't assume my showing up means I've bought shares. If there's not enough room in a trade for others... I probably won't mention it until there is. I do not "promote" stocks for others, or to facilitate my selling of them. I do not short stocks. If I'm negative on them... it's because I'm negative on them... not because I'm talking them down, looking for an entry. That doesn't mean I won't trade stocks based on charts, even when I'm negative about them. But, my opinion won't change... because I make a trade based on a chart. My goal is to maintain a large list of things I find are worth looking at... eliminating most of the garbage... while including some very high risk issues... in which timing trades well might prove useful. I trade more frequently than many others will, more in some issues than others, without updating my lists. I don't think the value of an issue changes, depending on my choice to buy, sell or hold, so my opinion does not tend to change based on changes in my position, although my position might change with a change in my opinion, assuming I have a position. I work to ensure that I am diversified in my holdings. I do not ever plan to own large percentage interests in any issue, rather than limit my planned holdings to one days trading volume, or less... usually much less. I try to pick well from a good list, and time trades well, so, more trades in more issues rather than more shares in fewer is what I work to accomplish as I expand the scope of my interest. I own things I never mention. I mention things I never own. I am rigorously disciplined in my trading... but, also, apply more than one method or style deliberately. It will be a mistake to assume I apply one approach or another in any given issue, unless I'm saying what my approach in it is... and then, that might change, too. That I think a stock is worth owning... doesn't mean I do own it at any given point in time. If I say I do own it... I do... but, I tend not to ever think it useful to say "how much" I own in anything at a particular time. I'm not giving others timely trading advice here or recommending investments, or determining what is suitable for others, when discussing what I find interesting. I'm not pumping stocks I own, ever... rather than giving my honest opinion of them. If I'm positive it doesn't mean I'm long... but it does mean I'm positive on the stock for the reasons I discuss. I do believe that timing trades well matters as much or more than making good picks. Picking good stocks (meaning good companies in which the DD supports investment) and picking good charts to trade.... are very different things. I think that limiting ones choices to trading stocks that are good picks is as smart as limiting your trading to good charts... but, I'm not always that smart. I trade what I think are good charts, not all of which are good companies. Do your own DD. Do your own TA. Make your own investment decisions. Determine your own timing. Agree with me or not. It's up to you.
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ReplyMessage PreviewFromRecsPosted
4862Natural Gas In the prior post I addressed supply demand imbalances... as occursense-9 minutes ago
4861Copper/Silver Ratio: Same Range For Thousands Of Years Worth noting in the sense-3 hours ago
4860Charting Silver's Move... Thus Far... Understandably lots of excitement recsense-5 hours ago
4859I found the Rule interview... because I ran across this re Nevada Copper on CEO.sense-yesterday
4858I don't know if I missed this... or if it only seems new, again, after a monsense-yesterday
4857MAG at just under $14 right now... I don't own it now... so, if I want tsense-Tuesday
4856CONL not an active trade after May 14... but the "bitcoin/brrrindicator ecosense-Tuesday
4855KO At a dead end... no growth left in it... ? The Returns At Coca-Cola (NYSE:sense-Tuesday
4854GO Chart pattern says shorts covering... and its holding right at/below the Csense-Tuesday
4853What a crazy interview... They're collecting properties but don't seesense-Monday
4852Oh. LOL !! Plato Gold... I thought he'd said Play Dough Gold...sense-Monday
4851Someone actually said the word ..... niobium?! [youtube video]Zilyunz-Monday
4850Wow. What a crazy week... but, its what we've been preparing for.. Mondaysense-last Saturday
4849TMQ moving today... on no news...sense-May 13
4848Red Pine It looks to me like it's too early to buy it... if you wanted to..sense-May 13
4847Natural Gas Futures Seasonality Chart [graphic]sense-May 13
4846US - Natural Gas Inventory 5-Year Seasonality Chart [graphic]sense-May 13
4845Visualizing The Copper Investment Opportunity In One Chart [graphic]sense-May 12
4844The Not So Good, The Really Not Good, and The Ugly 1. WRLGF Updated a Mineralsense-May 11
4843 Buffett Is Bearish ? [graphic]sense1May 10
4842CONL hitting near the $40 target today.sense-May 10
4841Jervois begins extension drilling at Idaho site sense-May 9
4840NEVDF reports Q1 They're mining ore, milling ore, processing, shipping and sense-May 9
4839Copper, Silver, Utilities, Gold, Energy Sector Summary RRG [graphic] [graphicsense-May 7
4838The Recession Is Already Here, Argues Danielle DiMartino Booth with Jack Farley sense-May 7
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