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Monday, Nov 15, 2021: Things here have become a bit of a jumble lately. I've been traveling for over a month, while less focused on trading and finding value that others have missed for a while, again... And, with the flow in the news I've been posting having lost some focus, the effort made also loses definition with my not having done a "big picture" update and posting a focused "short list" on the intro page in a few years... I'll try to fix that this year with a year end wrap up... which I used to try to do annually... [before the markets became such a god awful mess of flagrant manipulation]... while posting less often, then, than I do now...
I'll try to get back to that mode at the end of this year... as it appears we're moving toward greater "clarity" in the markets "soon"... So, it should be useful to focus more effort from here on "big picture" issues and values worth holding... given the market conditions: inflation raging at 14% with the Fed et al lying about it... interest rates surging whether the Fed wants them to or not as people grow more aware of the inflation... and begin to act based on their awareness, knowing they're being lied to. Gold and silver prices still more suppressed than ever while other commodities soar. Self induced and still growing energy shortages caused by "green belief" that they can direct markets what to do... complicating supply chain disruptions... which appear they're going to inevitably grow worse as there is no serious adult leadership in the global economy... and hardly anyone (other than those few reading here) even understands what's happening and why... much less "what to do about it" that might work to fix it. For now, it appears the problems will be left to fix themselves... and that at least creates some predictability in likely failure modes... and, if you understand it... timing...
While gold has resumed higher... there are still quite a few mining stocks (and not just in gold and silver) that represent great values that are almost entirely overlooked by the markets... while energy stocks again look set to outperform inflation far better than others.... shockingly to many, including coal stocks... as the "green dream" fails by the numbers... and those pushing the agenda finally have begun to become less concerned with "doing the right thing" and more concerned with what other people are going to do to them when they figure out what they've done to us... out of zeal and cluelessness and not caring...
Expecting a turbulent end to 2021 and a vastly more turbulent 2022... seems reasonable... while the clocks keep ticking... and the stock market bubble grows longer in the tooth over time... and as the Fed's ability to sustain their juggling act grows weaker over time. But, inflation impacts stock prices, too ? So, inflation raging at 14% while stocks move mostly sideways... is a market in decline in real terms... while interest rates rising, even by a few percentage points in the near future... when inflation is 14% and accelerating... still has the real rate held deeply negative ? The Inflation we have is not "the result of a policy mistake"... it is the policy intent... the lie is "we didn't intend it"... when it is necessary to shrink the debt without inducing some other form of deleveraging... and, as inflation robs the poor... who will be the ones who pay for it through the tax of inflation... while rising prices also means a steady % rise in taxes... and a steady decline in the value of government obligations (Social Security etc.) that won't be allowed to keep up with the "actual" pace of inflation... only the "claimed" rate... then, that's what we'll get.
I think oil and mining stocks, while not immune to the market turbulence, are set to outperform for some few years... while gold shares will likely lead the market out of any decline that does occur... while an election looming in 2022 is certain to impose interesting wrinkles in the outlook, too...
I think the vast majority of investors aren't ready for the changes in direction that appear inevitable... including that long suffering gold stock bulls really don't even remember what it is like to have the miners sustain a move in a bull market... in more than a feint higher for a month or two without a subsequent collapse to lower lows being engineered by "the bankers"...
But, that's the summary view today... before I begin the work of taking a fresh look... Perhaps it won't change much from that view ?
Wednesday, September 22, 2021:
Rusoro Mining Announces Venezuela Voluntarily Dismissed Appeal Of US $1.62 Billion Judgment Rendered By The U.S. District Court In Washington DC In Favor Of Rusoro Mining
Sunday, March 8, 2020
Big day on tap for SQQQ / PASS etc., tomorrow... bigger still for the oil funds OILD, etc.
Unfortunately, I missed the first oil trade I discussed here by a day... as the OPEC meeting collapsed into an oil war on Friday, making the 3X oil down ETF's give 25% to 30% on Friday... but, not in on Friday meant missing the open on Monday, with oil down $10 to $12 at the open... it shoulda been up 100%+ on the day.
The DOW should open down 1000... the S&P limit down... and then ? Things get ugly.
My intro below is wildly out of date... I'm seeing gold going higher... a re-monitization rapidly becoming more likely. Go LONG GOLD ROYALTY FUNDS before gold rises to make the payouts permanent. Silver not so much, as it isn't planned to be re-monitized, and the industrial demand is collapsing into the smoking hole the virus is creating of the global economy...
Others trades mentioned recently: Pork prices in China
The mortuary business: SCI remarkably resilient (looking lively ?) in the down turn
Below is old data, with dates, still worth being aware of...
NMREF - (May 21, 2019 @ $0.08)
GOMRF - (May 21, 2019 @ $0.10)
FCF.v - (May 11, 2019 @ $1.05)
ALMTF - (Feb 21, 2016 @ $0.22) Tungsten... quietly advancing Korean project... major mine.
TRQ - (May 15 2019 @ $1.25) Copper in Mongolia... China risks.
EORBF - (May 28, 2019 @ $0.10) (Failed. Stick a Fork In It: June 24, 2019 @ $ ???)
KERMF - (May 21, 2019 @ 0.13)
For the Traders Who Are Market Timers to watch... pick your days...
NXXGF (June 2, 2019 @ $0.06)
SAND (May 24, 2019 @ $5.07)
PAAS (June 2, 2019 @ $11.17)
HL (June 2, 2019 @ $1.37)
GTE (May 2019, below $2) (June 27 @ $1.57)
KL (Sept 2015 @ $4.15, June 2, 2019 @ $35.00)
AGI (June 2, 2019 @ $5.00)
PXMFF (May 30, 2019 @ $0.03)
PXPEF (May 30, 2019 @ $0.11)
FECOF (May 30, 2019 @ $ 0.005)
OBNNF / OSK.TO (June 27 wait for it at $2... it'll probably happen) Osisko... Kirkland Lake owns a stake...
TLRS (June 22, 2019 @ $0.07)
CPNFF (June 22, 2019 @$0.43... worth watching) Now at $0.35. EuroSun / Romania. Advancing a mine... now at $0.28 (30 July) and still watching. Short history on shares a bit of a red flag for now.
DNGDF (June 22, 2019 @ $1.30... ) Dynacor - yields 2%
CGOOF (June 27, 2019 @ $2.90... with a short wait for it...) Columbia mine development now funded.
PIRGF (June 27, 2019 @ $1.57... with a short wait for it...) Premier Gold Mines
FNLPF (June 27, 2019 @ $11.00... with a hmmm... waiting... world's largest silver producer w/ a 2% yield) At $8 on 30 July even with silver prices rising in leaps... why is that ?
Silver was lagging gold pretty badly, not now (July 30 2019). Still a few project management issues here:
MAG (June 27, 2019 @ $10.66 ) Partner 44% w/ Fresnillo (above) on new mine, finding new discoveries... less hobbled by the "hmmm" issues.
FSM (June 27, 2019 @ $2.89) new mine will double production... silver still lagging gold so timely shares
AG (June 27, 2019 @ $7.77... with a wait for it... lower in a week or two ?) Timed right anyway...
CELTF (June 27, 2019 @ $1.47) Egyptian gold mine... highest yield in the space at > 8%... w/ gold rising.
HGHGF (Jun 22, 2019 @ $2.25) Russian gold mine... yield > 7.0%...
Current Strategies and New Trend Plays: (from 21 May 2019)
Elephants in the Room Sept 8, 2019
Elephants Dancing to Trump's Tune... in The China(s) Trade(s) Sept 10, 2019
Still staying out of the major markets... waiting for it... but starting to dabble in the shallow end, again, in April and May 2019... by going long select resource stocks that have generally not been participating in the stock market bubble. Some were and are good value, profitable, and low PE stocks. Following up on a few picks in April and May, I threw a blanket and converted all the miners I follow, and the larger group of those that I don't among the silver and gold stocks, to buys on June 2, 2019.
HREE: Heavy Rare Earth Element Stocks... a particular trade war risk with China the main supplier.
NMREF, (May 21, 2019 @ $0.08) Up 71% today.
GOMRF (May 21, 2019 @ $0.10) Up 32% today.
NXXGF (June 2, 2019) A Red Lake Ontario project, and two plus west African projects... experienced management... another SAND backed project.
KERMF A buy (May 21, 2019). Kerr Mines Production in 2020? Expanding resource in higher than anticipated values. I've followed Kerr for many years, still have a few shares as a result of an acquisition some years back. Trends are quite positive, and the chart reflects that... on bad days in the market, which we ought to be having more of, you should be able to buy a share for a dime.
SAND Sandstorm Gold Royalties (May 24, 2019) A royalty company that's been doing pretty well in a tough market... best way to buy higher value properties with a higher than average payout potential and better leverage in up markets... in a pairing with unassailable diversification of business and geopolitical risks. The miners find it hard to find money in meaningful quantity a tough market... giving SAND a good ability to pick cherries now.... while the depressed prices for metals and mining shares now... should accrue in appreciated values in better market conditions as investments made now enable future production with a few years lag. They're making money now, but the PE is up there... so another one worth waiting for to pick up on really bad days in the market. Their Asset Handbook is a valuable resource for many reasons.
FWIW I'm seeing a lot of the properties I've followed over the years listed in the handbook... making it worth looking at the current owners of those properties I've had reason to have liked in the past... as they're being supported in enabling development now. A quick look through shows they're in on Turquoise Hill
(TRQ) and have an interest at Relief Canyon, which I've followed since back in the 1980's, as Pegasus Gold's core property, and through a series of owners after, including a failed venture secretly funded by illicit Chinese money, but ending up with Pershing Gold, who just got bought out by U.S. Silver's remnant, now as America's Silver Corporation (USAS), which, following negative management changes, I bailed out of back in 2011 or 2012... at (reverse split adjusted) around $27... now its at $1.70... and still worth avoiding IMO... as shareholders aren't the intended winners there. Better to own SAND.
PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. (9/2015) (AUQ >LSG>TAHO>PAAS) Covered here. Been following each of the components for a long time, and like all of the parts... Lake Shore a good value, Tahoe's properties will reward PAAS nicely if they can work through and resolve the foreign government risk factors. Still more dependent on silver prices than many silver producers... and silver prices are giving few reasons to hurry... so the wait will be conditioned mostly by the timing in resolving the practical issues... succeeding in turning the corner at existing prices will make them a buy.
HL Hecla (June 2, 2019) has been a "wait for it" for me... for about as long as I can remember. With this update maybe its finally getting close to crossing the threshold. Risks from here... appear manageable... so mostly down to an issue of price and timing... calling the bottom... and being patient.
GTE... (a watch on 6/25/2015) (Buy in May 2019, below $2) Yahoo summary Oil production in Columbia, soon in Equador. Recent acquisitions and share buybacks... pick your entry... a steal @ $2 or below. I like the cross border move into Equador... for diversification of risk and distribution potential. Shares 80% held by institutions, only 1% by insiders, 1% short. Looks like steady growth, but $ might not fall to the bottom line to grow the earnings. Junior exploration risks... but real exploration upside potential as an operator, too. Markets in oil require timing entries with a correlation between corporate success and market price trends.
EORBF (May 28, 2019) Yahoo finance Update on another I've been following awhile...
KL (9/2015) Yahoo finance Acquired Osisko (OSKFF et al) and the ramp in price over the last three years suggests KL may have one of the few management teams capable of doing more than just surviving the current environment... (May 27, 2019) announces a share buy back of 21 million shares... 10% of the float.
A historical note: the OSKFF acquisition incorporated Oban Gold, which took in the assets of NioGold (NOX.v/NOXGF: Sept 2, 2015)... who spun off GOMRF.
AGI (9/2015) Alamos Gold acquired AuRico (AUQ) to become a mid tier in 2016.
PXMFF (May 30, 2019) Philex Mining is a Philippine based copper and gold miner, that I've covered in a rough outline posted here.
Base Metal Producers:
ALMTF Almonty Industries. Been following it for years. (2/21/2016) Looks like they've finally gotten all the kinks out of their planning, the acquisitions have been absorbed, and things are working... they're finally mining and making money at it ? Timely as a producer of Tungsten... with supplies tightening... China supply risks.
TRQ (May 15 2019) Found this randomly... but like the way it looks.
FCX Freeport-McMoran (June 13, 2019 @ $10.83) The "WORLD’S PREMIER PUBLICLY TRADED COPPER COMPANY" A PE of 8 and yields 2%. Richard C. Adkerson bought $1.74 million more of the mining company’s stock last week. It’s his first open-market stock purchase in a decade.
Natural Gas Producers: (WAIT FOR IT)
MR, RRC, SWN, AR, GPOR, CHK
Below the line above is Outdated Info. Some will be updated and moved above the lines when (if) I get around to it... the rest left for reference use and historical interest:
Here's the list of "picks" as of now (2 Sept 2015): PAAS
Minerals and Miners:
gold producers: FCX, GG, NEM, / VGMNF, AUY, NGD?, IAG, BTG, KGILF, LODE, KLNDF/KDX.TO, KGC
silver producers: HL, SLW, EXLLF, RVM (acquired)/HL, SMNPF (US Silver + Scorpio Gold)
development: RTRAF, WFEMF / ALMTF (W), MDW, TCEGF, WLEF.L (W/Sn), CKB.V (or, CVXHF)
gold explorers: TLRS/CJIMF/CHPGF/GG, XPL, PGLC, RDUFF, AISCF, TMIAF/TMIBF, GSV, PROBF, CBGDF, WTHVF
other explorers: KOOYF/KTN.V (Ag), SRSR (Nb), SVBL (Ag/Zn), TKRFF/TK.V (Zn+6)
royalty plays: MTAFF(May 24, 2019)...MTLI metalinecontactmines.com (Zn), SLW, CCNMF (acquired), ATBYF, FFMGF
HREE: NMREF, GOMRF
Hobby Scale Mines: LKAI
"Government Takings / Arbitration" as Legal risk plays: TMIBF, BRLGF, GDRZF, PAWEF, KHRIF
BK risk plays: SGRCF: (now defunct, assets liquidated).
Declines like those in mining and minerals over the last few years, or like that currently occurring in oil and gas, are wildly disruptive of company plans. Usually, plans being disrupted means only bad things, and the stocks, quickly or not, come to reflect the changed value in the changed potentials... while occasionally the disrupted plans result in stranding companies that have raised the money for the projects, but haven't yet written the checks. A useful focus, on occasion, is to the test the market detritus following a massive move, looking for those companies who have been divorced from their plans, and have been punished for either the story or the market falling apart, when they haven't been divorced from the cash they raised and still hold. Companies often trade for less than value in cash that they hold, which is rational when neither the value in cash nor the company are likely to survive long. Rarely, though, you find a situation where the management aren't pilfering the cash, and they're still capable of creating more value rather than less by using it.
A short list based only on screening, is a place to start... and, then, each "opportunity" has to be vetted for the actual value... perhaps the cash reported isn't real... perhaps its real, but already committed to a deal that can't work... etc. More often than not, management who screwed up a deal that left them holding some pile of cash... will rapidly screw up again, obviating any utility in considering that cash as a value rather than a risk. More often than not, a pile of cash without a project means a lure management can't resist, and the cash will slowly whither away, pointlessly paying salaries. Cash in the wrong hands is worth less than face value. Management trumps geology... particularly in the negative sense. And, management integrity trumps the value of cash... particularly in the negative sense. However, a good management that wanders into a windfall in a sale of assets, or that otherwise is left with cash they know how to grow... always well worth looking for.
The other comparable capacity... results when producers (as in gold, or oil) survive the downtrends and are still making money when less successful competitors are forced into selling high quality assets for pennies on the dollar... because they failed in getting them into production... and can't raise the money in the changed environment in the market. The list above is heavy with producers surviving or thriving in the current market... and with developers moving ahead inspite of the market, because of the quality of their assets. The rest, then, is about price... meaning be patient, in order to "buy low"... and timing, in order to synch decisions to buy with events driving new market lows.
TMIBF and BRLGF are a subset of that first focus... TLR another, as is AISCF, in having management that work that angle of looking for other companies with usable cash in hand... doing that "for you" as an alternative means of financing their own survival while sustaining their efforts... gaining cash resources by merging with cash rich companies at the bottom of the market... but, otherwise, I've not worked the angle in a while... and should revisit the focus, soon...
The Aristocrats(tm): Market Dogs The Aristocrats(tm): Bellwether's Shipping Stocks Revue
Shining Tree Gold Camp Penny Pinchers The Aristocrats(tm): Advertising, Convergence, Privacy and Profits Rare Earth Elements and Exotic Metals
Before considering market participation... In 2015, given all banking appears to be based in or a practice of fraud... re-thinking your banking relationships has to be a first priority. Rules changes that have ALREADY OCCURRED mean your saving and checking accounts are again being held at market risk, liable to being seized in the event your bank fails. They call that "bail in"... but, what it means is... the bank takes your stuff and calls it theirs. Are there banking alternatives and alternative savings methods ? Not as many as you might hope. Here, a list, including a couple of related articles:
Free Lakota Bank The Free Lakota Bank Conspiracy Theory
e-gold.com Bullion and Bandits: The Improbable Rise and Fall of E-Gold
State Bank And Intra-State Commodity Depository Reserve
The banks are pretending there won't be really bad things that happen when people figure out that they've been defrauded, AGAIN, by the banks. And, notice how the government didn't keep investors safe in the above patently fraudulent instances ? Keeping cash accounts, savings, and checking accounts away from major banks... makes perfect sense. Keeping some cash hidden in a home safe... makes sense. Using a Credit Union instead of a major brand bank... will lower your risks dramatically (but not eliminate all of the systemic risks)... and, there's no reason you should ever put money into a bank... to take LARGER risks than you would by keeping it secured yourself. Don't wait for a bank failure... and bank runs... before figuring out that the world of banking has changed... in ways that transfer all of the risks the banks take... to you... so that you will lose your money if they fail.
I think we're at or near the end of the mid-depression peak... 2014-2015 comparable to 1931-1932... with Fed policy working as intended, only as long as you recognize that what is intended by policy is to drag things out longer... 1929 to 1932 being only three years... 2008 to 2015 being seven years. What we are seeing in the result now is a success in sustaining the efforts made in NOT changing the rules that govern banking, as they continue on trend, with the only implementation of changes being those that roll the rules back to what they were before 1929... That is what we are doing, rather than fostering proper fixes of things that are broken.
Worth noting in your own banking relationships... is that a change back to "the way things used to work" might even make some sense... but, it can only IF you are also TELLING EVERYONE what the changes in the rules in banking MEAN to them, while you are making them... so that they have an opportunity to alter their choices, and so you aren't setting people up for awareness of the changes being imposed on them only at that point when their banks fail and their checking and savings accounts disappear.
Given a choice, as a consumer... between banking with a fractional reserve bank that claims to own its customers deposits as capital of the bank... and banking with a full reserve bank that guarantees its own solvency and the integrity of deposits (with the caveat that normal business risks still exist, including whether or not the government claims to have properly insured any of your deposits)... consumers should be able to make the determination about "the rules" that govern banking for themselves, by making choices to bank with those following rules that make the most sense in addressing customer needs... while allowing customers to avoid taking risks they don't want. Reality is... there isn't a free market in banking... when consumers are denied the option of making a choice about how to do their banking, who to bank with, or, where.
Peak China in 2014. Much of the world geared to hope the pace of growth will be sustained... It won't be.
Commodity producers growth in particular is reaching limits as the pace of growth in China's demand cools.
Expect hard times to drive accelerating consolidation... the rich will get richer... the rest will just go away.
Explorers... have already filled the pipeline with minerals required for a pace of growth that won't happen.
Hard for some to understand... but, it is still possible that we're nearer a long wave market peak in mineral exploration stocks than a bottom. Explorers as a class are still generally over-valued... still clinging to the hope of 2010. There are exceptions... in tungsten, niobium, particular REE, a few other tech metals with demand growing. Gold and silver aren't an exception, but, the link to risks in monetary issues gives them separate timing issues... already profitable producers will bottom before the prices of their commodities, as costs are declining faster than the values produced. And, reality is that acquisitions are accelerating now, as majors are entering the market buying juniors with solid, better quality resources... The sector may not be at the bottom yet... but gold has broken resistance on a move higher... and "select" companies, focusing on those that are buy-out candidates... makes sense in the current environment.
Junior Oil Producers are going to be in for a tough year, or couple years... we're just coming off the peak.
Ahead of the Herd (these links have been here for years now, it seems):
Are E&P Companies Coming To Their Senses About Gas?
Barite Market Tight as China Supply Decreases
Barite obviously not in growing demand, right now... Worth looking at... long term... are those shale potentials that might be competitive at current prices. U.S. companies should be looking overseas for shales they can drill, frac and produce at a profit even with lower prices.
LNG focus in U.S. still worth paying attention to as energy markets crater... but timing matters.
Nat Gas Midstream Stocks still worth holding and watching for new or re-entry points.
Nat Gas looking for a bottom for years. Capping the shale oil boom might be the catalyst required... but, that's still not having gas likely to prove out as a play before the energy stocks hit bottom again, and harder... A long tail on established horizontal production already undertaken could mean it will take a year or two from now before you start to see significant declines in gas production that are significant enough to force demand to drive the prices higher... but, watch the numbers... mid summer 2016 might finally see us reaching a low point in prices in the natural gas markets... when production is going into a steep decline.
Shipping Stocks as bellwether still sinking slowly, and keeps settling until just before economic recovery arrives. Given current trends... that could be another seven years...
Leveraged reverse interest rate and market averages plays (charts)
Leveraged reverse stock index plays (charts) SQQQ my guess is for tough sledding in early March
Selected REE and Niobium stocks (from Feb 2014) sector is bottoming...
Silver and Gold Exploration stocks - buy the survivors, but, after they've survived.
Silver and Gold Producer stocks - anyone still making money right now is worth looking at.
Library of Essential Awareness:
Memoirs of extraordinary popular delusions. Volume I
Memoirs of extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds. Volume II
(discussed in this post from January 12, 2021)
Clif High Explains the Way the World REALLY Works
Prof. Antony Davies: Why Government Fails, Explained
Steve Keen: The Economy is NOT in Equilibrim
Johnny Liberty Explains the Structure of the Economy
Creditors in Commerce
How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
Psychopath vs. Empath: the War Between Truth and Deception
The Truth About the Law
Cultural Awareness / Others World View:
South Park Underpants Gnomes Business Plan
The Dark Side:
The Street Sweeper
Basic News links:
ZeroHedge DRUDGE REPORT 2012® The LA Times The Atlantic Wire IMPLU News
News Spank The Guardian: Business The Telegraph: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Bloomberg The Canadian Business Journal The Globe and Mail Financial Post
Deal and Niche Focused News:
NY Times: Dealbook Wall St. Cheat Sheet Business Insider World Finance Wealth Wire Reuters Buyouts The Reverse Merger Report The Deal Pipeline (not oil focused) Insider Cow The Stock Gumshoe Streetwise Professor The Market Ticker ® Commentary on The Capital Markets Cliff Kule China Investor Investing Daily
General Market Perspective and Situation Awareness: Credit Bubble Bulletin
Peter Schiff alt-market.com Miles Franklin gata.org The Daily Bell Early Warning Nouriel Roubini at The Guardian Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor Blog The Joris Luyendijk Banking Blog Deep Capture WolfStreet MaxKeiser MaxKeiser: Dollar Collapse TSI Blog Armstrong Economics TheMoneyIllusion Paul Craig Roberts Secrets of the Fed Full Reserve Banking David Stockman Orlov The Daily Reckoning The Speculative Investor ZIRPQE Wall Street On Parade blacklisted news
Sectors: Investor Intel
Graphite and Graphene:
Science Daily New Scientist TechCrunch TotalTele.com
The Robot Report
Canadian Mining Journal
Gold Investment News Gold Sheet Mining Directory Infomine's InvestmentMine Mining Markets and Investment Gold Review Commodity HQ Rare Metal Blog Mineweb Silver Miners.com InfoMine Republic of Mining Mining.com MiningWeekly(North America) Clive P. Maund Gold Reports
Oilprice.com The Oil Drum: Discussions about Energy and Our Future Rigzone Derrick News and Dealflow (oil focused)
Economics and Theory of Political Economy:
Mises Institute Austrian School Libertarians
New Economic Perspectives Keynesian Liberals
Babylon Today incl M3 post 1995
St. Louis Fed Research
Charts from the Bureau of Economic Analysis
Now and Futures
FDA New and Generic Drug Approvals
Today's Issues Changes Index
SEC News Digest
Credit Risk Monitor
Inflation Rate Calculator
Links to Regulatory Information, Filings and Exchanges
List (to be edited, suggestions welcome) of Other SI Strategies & Market Trends Site Links:
Dividend investing for retirement
Beat The Street With SI Traders
50% Gains Investing
Technical analysis for shorts & longs
The New Economy and its Winners
E-Wave and TA Workspace
$SPX BUY AND SELL SIGNALS, AND OTHER MARKET PERSPECTIVES
The Financial Collapse of 2001 and Beyond
Ride the Tiger with CD
List of Other Useful SI Investment Concept or Stock Specific Boards:
FECOF, FEP and Philex Companies Discussion
GOMRF Geomega Resources
QCOR Questcor Pharmaceutical
SRSR Sarissa Resources, Inc.
Investors Education Links:
Hard Right Edge
Now and Futures
Focus, Purpose, Mission Statement, or, you know, whatever...
News and mostly original contributor analysis with a focus on enabling strategic advantage gained from better quality awareness and better quality thinking about global opportunities as enhanced awareness enables finding and addressing them.
News, for our purposes here, means things that are "new" and that tend not to be the featured focus of mainstream media, but are more the sorts of things you think they should be focused on that they're not. News naturally means reports making you aware of things about which others would certainly rather have you be, and remain, unaware. All news has a bias which it is useful to properly identify. Welcome will be any posts making us aware of relevant and expert quality news sources which I can consider adding to the list of news sources.
Mostly original contributor analysis means... you and I post what we think. That will not mean excluding all discussion of what others think, as not topical, particularly when they're right, and the opinion you express and share is "outside the box" and justifiable, but, also those which are wrong if the post explains why that is true. Knowing what others are grossly wrong about, and why, is often just as useful, in itself, as being right when others are not.
The world changes, and to determine the best moves to make at any given time, a very large degree of honesty, realism, flexibility, and better than average awareness of the world are requirements. So, while the focus here is on "strategies" it is not intended to be limited to any one strategy, but, to the RIGHT one for now, given... your analysis of the situation.
That broad focus will require that specific "picks" should be properly defined as "trades" or "holdings" and in context of the strategy that applies to them... but, otherwise, be as specific or general as you like while EXPLAINING WHY using something more than your assertion of an opinion as a justification... to keep the focus on the rational behind the strategy being applied.
The bias here will still be toward due diligence and value investing, and specifically excluded are "strategies" that depend on trading skills alone, or trading of worthless penny stocks purely through "pump and dump" or other "promotion". This is not a "hot tip" site for traders. Technical analysis is a useful and necessary tool and topic. Success in investing requires trading skills, and it is proper to assume that "chart skills" and trading decisions that are likely to succeed, should also be a big part of the timing in any investment decisions, on entry and exit points, with or without other consideration of in depth industry and issue specific fundamentals.
Buy low. Finding "the next big thing" while it is trading for pennies and heading for dollars is a key focus here... but, we don't want to be stupid about it, and will work to minimize the holding risks and maximize the returns by using every trick in the book... that is properly and honestly described and legitimately employed. Given that focus, diversifying holdings and strategies is a proper subject, but not diversification for its own sake, without diversification meaning within the range of the types of opportunities being considered, here.
There is roughly ZERO justification for "talking your trade" here... in the way that is commonly understood as meaning saying the opposite of what you believe in order to enable some unique benefit for yourself by lying to or misleading others. If you have to do that to make the trade work for you... it means you're wrong enough on the fundamentals to be worthy of ignoring, here, so take that elsewhere. Picking well is one thing. Buying low is something else altogether. Both matter, and both are proper goals in the focus here, and proper subjects for discussion... keeping in mind not "talking your trade" here, please.
I started posting my investment thinking on the internet for one reason... which is that committing yourself to saying what you are thinking and doing in a public post, is the best possible "check" on your performance with a tool for holding yourself accountable... to yourself. That focus assumes you care about being right, and will try to be. And that focus is the reason for the rules, here... that will require honesty, not advocacy, as an entering argument. I've found the reason valid... and the effort worthwhile... but, the effort has suffered from lack of a fixed home.
As my effort expanded, I found it useful to try to post "big picture" updates, and then conduct an annual review process to reconsider prior updates. That effort "worked" through 2009, but since then it has been limited by the fact that reality seems unconcerned about my interest in an annual review schedule, or otherwise, by my own inability to synthesize new ideas on a schedule, when I'd like to have them, rather than that occurring when it does, as a function of an ever changing reality that has its own pace.
So, that's the focus here... not quite a vanity site... but, a home base for me to post my musings... collect relevant bits from others... and engage with others who have similar interests.
Oh, the title: "The Aristocrats"
The title "Aristocrats" is first a critical comment on the nature of the markets and its participants... and therefore, given the nature and quality of the joke that goes by that title, it is used as a similarly descriptive and self deprecating bit of humor about the nature and quality of the people in markets, as in show business.
The point is... wide ranging, and no holds barred in being bluntly to brutally honest... with an historians focus on an "insiders" aware (and thus honest) view of our subject, warts and all... including that "Banksters" might be a suitable proxy here for "Aristocrats" while including a view of them that is "a form of social satire aimed at the decadence of the aristocracy". It is not an invitation to joke retelling or vulgarity rather than realism here, although original humor in one's outlook, approach and conversation is always appreciated.
* VERY LONG Disclaimer Note: My current picks and things I'm looking at, holding, thinking about, etc., are not updated in real time... or anything close to it. For obvious reasons, I will find it useful to not mention everything I look at, everything I buy, sell, or hold. Similarly, I'm not intending to post a target list to make life easy for those seeking to hurt me in low float trades. The market is full of assholes, and some of them have more market power than you do. It's smart to not make it easy for them to hurt you... or worthwhile for them to try. I think that means you don't bother with trying to avoid pissing them off... you just make it pointless for them think about caring. So, while I'm honest (often brutally honest) in my analysis and what I post, don't expect I'm going to be overly stupid about it... but, I am not going to be bullied or cowed... by threats, or hurt by others stupidity ? Things I mention may or may not be things I own, and that may change at any time without notice. I tend to trade first... and talk about it later... on a daily basis... rather than trading and talking at the same time. So, often the daily focus in any discussion is "post game". Or I will often talk first... and trade later... on a longer term basis. I have been known to talk about a stock for a LONG time before thinking I know it well enough to buy for anything other than a short term trade. Don't assume my showing up means I've bought shares. If there's not enough room in a trade for others... I probably won't mention it until there is. I do not "promote" stocks for others, or to facilitate my selling of them. I do not short stocks. If I'm negative on them... it's because I'm negative on them... not because I'm talking them down, looking for an entry. That doesn't mean I won't trade stocks based on charts, even when I'm negative about them. But, my opinion won't change... because I make a trade based on a chart. My goal is to maintain a large list of things I find are worth looking at... eliminating most of the garbage... while including some very high risk issues... in which timing trades well might prove useful. I trade more frequently than many others will, more in some issues than others, without updating my lists. I don't think the value of an issue changes, depending on my choice to buy, sell or hold, so my opinion does not tend to change based on changes in my position, although my position might change with a change in my opinion, assuming I have a position. I work to ensure that I am diversified in my holdings. I do not ever plan to own large percentage interests in any issue, rather than limit my planned holdings to one days trading volume, or less... usually much less. I try to pick well from a good list, and time trades well, so, more trades in more issues rather than more shares in fewer is what I work to accomplish as I expand the scope of my interest. I own things I never mention. I mention things I never own. I am rigorously disciplined in my trading... but, also, apply more than one method or style deliberately. It will be a mistake to assume I apply one approach or another in any given issue, unless I'm saying what my approach in it is... and then, that might change, too. That I think a stock is worth owning... doesn't mean I do own it at any given point in time. If I say I do own it... I do... but, I tend not to ever think it useful to say "how much" I own in anything at a particular time. I'm not giving others timely trading advice here or recommending investments, or determining what is suitable for others, when discussing what I find interesting. I'm not pumping stocks I own, ever... rather than giving my honest opinion of them. If I'm positive it doesn't mean I'm long... but it does mean I'm positive on the stock for the reasons I discuss. I do believe that timing trades well matters as much or more than making good picks. Picking good stocks (meaning good companies in which the DD supports investment) and picking good charts to trade.... are very different things. I think that limiting ones choices to trading stocks that are good picks is as smart as limiting your trading to good charts... but, I'm not always that smart. I trade what I think are good charts, not all of which are good companies. Do your own DD. Do your own TA. Make your own investment decisions. Determine your own timing. Agree with me or not. It's up to you.
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