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Strategies & Market Trends
US Inflation and What To Do About It
An SI Board Since April 2010
Posts SubjectMarks Bans Symbol
1034 23 0 AGG
Emcee:  mindmeld Type:  Moderated
When this thread started on 4/25/2010, the hottest financial book out was Michael Lewis' "The Big Short". The sub-prime bond market collapsed in 2007 and 2008, taking out the rest of the economy. The aftermath was 10% unemployment and unprecedented US Government spending and risk guarantees to prop up Wall Street firms that would have otherwise ceased to exist. All the perpetrators of this disaster walked away multi-millionaires and billionaires, leaving the rest of us holding the bag. No criminal suits were brought against the bankster execs, except for a few small fry scapegoats. The SEC suit of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan were a sham puppet's court and the Dodd-Frank financial reform didn't come close to addressing the underlying problems, and it has since been gutted. All of it was window dressing for an American public that isn't sophisticated enough to even begin to understand the nature or scope of the greatest public Treasury/Fed/Wall Street heist in US history that is still underway.

As of 2019, the bottom line is that the US debt continues to soar on the back of 9 years of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus, and is now clocking in at $22 Trillion. The end of deficits is nowhere in sight. Even though the Fed has been raising interest rates and shrinking their balance sheet, INFLATION has been bouncing around, recently dropping as low as 1.5% in March. The future for Inflation is uncertain, but the stock market feels frothy, and the monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts seem to have reached their last gasps.

This thread was started with the idea that these monetary and fiscal policies would inevitably result in inflation, especially now with the deregulation of banks and deficit binges that are ongoing. The only questions left to ask are as follows:
* When will we start to see inflation get out of control? Or does a massive debt to GDP ration mean deflation is now the dominant worry, as we saw in Japan?
* How far will the Fed go to protect stock markets?
* Who will benefit and how will they benefit? Who will lose and how?
* How can we position our portfolios for this to ensure we don't lose big?
* What publicly traded companies, sectors, or instruments will benefit and which will lose in a rapid inflationary environment or a deflationary one?
* When will the Fed lose the stomach for raising rates and stop quantitative tightening? When will they reverse course and engage in ZIRP or even NIRP and QE?
* What will be the immediate consequences in the market and how can we get ahead of that trade?

Latest Inflation Readings:

Treasury Yields (Watch for inversion or steepening):

Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow:

The only rule on this thread is that we keep it civil. If someone demonstrates uncontrollable vitriol, I'll give one or more warnings, and then ultimately ban the instigator. Try to make your points without insulting people. If that is too much for you, then there are other threads where you may be welcomed, but not here.

New Poll...Ends March 25th
Votes Cast : 7
At what level will the SP 500 close at CYE'19?
Below 2,000
Near 2,300
Near 2,600
Near 2,900
Near 3,200
Above 3,500
This poll is now closed (poll closed on 31 Mar 2019).
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ReplyMessage PreviewFromRecsPosted
1034LOLOLmindmeld-last Friday
1033Meet eight year old miniAOC on 'Green New Deal' She is hilarious can fJohn Vosilla-June 9
1032Not bad now but very sensitive to interest rates. Probably gas prices as well..John Vosilla-June 9
1031Yes, it is true. Ask yourself, what is on the other side of Trump? The answer ismindmeld-June 5
1030Wow! I had not seen that. I knew the housing market was rolling over, but didn&#mindmeld-June 1
1029Couldn't agree with you more.mindmeld1June 1
1028There is no safer place than the U.S. and the U.S. is not safe. Really, we'rJohn Vosilla-May 27
1027But I just don't see how Trump will keep the economy going through November John Vosilla-May 27
1026Talking about mortgages, did you know that mortgages just went negative in Denmamindmeld-May 26
1025I agree. The Fed is behind, as they are always, because they look at indicators mindmeld-May 26
1024Fed probably over did it with that last increase. Yield curve now looks more likJohn Vosilla-May 17
1023Yet too many don't want mortgages or financing is next to impossible to get John Vosilla-May 17
1022We are so screwed Trump our last hope?? Scary if true.. I don't like his John Vosilla-May 14
1021China’s Crisis and The Coming Global Recession (w/ Kyle Bass) | Interview | RealJohn Vosilla-May 12
1020It’s Time to Look More Carefully at “Monetary Policy 3 (MP3)” and “Modern MonetaJohn Vosilla-May 12
1019It all depends on the Fed.mindmeld-May 3
1018A glimmer of the next downturn. Bad debt from.student loans, car loans, and corpmindmeld-May 3
1017Yep. Cultural Marxism and Socilasm and Communist Central Economic Planning, all mindmeld-May 3
1016Sounds like your possible 2019 recession call is now off the table??John Vosilla-May 2
1015Black swan out of left field no one talking about?? Or just need higher interestJohn Vosilla-May 2
1014The Fed has enormous power on markets. I'm beginning to think they've haJohn Vosilla-May 1
1013I think I've found the catalyst for the end of the bull market. It's stomindmeld-April 26
1012Yes, I've been watching the emerging market currency crashes. Argentina in pmindmeld-April 25
1011One thing we know for sure. Trump will pull out all the stops to keep this ride mindmeld-April 25
1010True. There are a lot of canaries in the coal mine singing, but it hasn't admindmeld-April 25
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