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Strategies & Market Trends
US Inflation and What To Do About It
An SI Board Since April 2010
Posts SubjectMarks Bans Symbol
1257 22 0 AGG
Emcee:  mindmeld Type:  Moderated
When this thread started on 4/25/2010, the hottest financial book out was Michael Lewis' "The Big Short". The sub-prime bond market collapsed in 2007 and 2008, taking out the rest of the economy. The aftermath was 10% unemployment and unprecedented US Government spending and risk guarantees to prop up Wall Street firms that would have otherwise ceased to exist. All the perpetrators of this disaster walked away multi-millionaires and billionaires, leaving the rest of us holding the bag. No criminal suits were brought against the bankster execs, except for a few small fry scapegoats. The SEC suit of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan were a sham puppet's court and the Dodd-Frank financial reform didn't come close to addressing the underlying problems, and it has since been gutted. All of it was window dressing for an American public that isn't sophisticated enough to even begin to understand the nature or scope of the greatest public Treasury/Fed/Wall Street heist in US history that is still underway.

As of 2019, the bottom line is that the US debt continues to soar on the back of 9 years of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus, and is now clocking in at $22 Trillion. The end of deficits is nowhere in sight. Even though the Fed has been raising interest rates and shrinking their balance sheet, INFLATION has been bouncing around, recently dropping as low as 1.5% in March. The future for Inflation is uncertain, but the stock market feels frothy, and the monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts seem to have reached their last gasps.

This thread was started with the idea that these monetary and fiscal policies would inevitably result in inflation, especially now with the deregulation of banks and deficit binges that are ongoing. The only questions left to ask are as follows:
* When will we start to see inflation get out of control? Or does a massive debt to GDP ration mean deflation is now the dominant worry, as we saw in Japan?
* How far will the Fed go to protect stock markets?
* Who will benefit and how will they benefit? Who will lose and how?
* How can we position our portfolios for this to ensure we don't lose big?
* What publicly traded companies, sectors, or instruments will benefit and which will lose in a rapid inflationary environment or a deflationary one?
* When will the Fed lose the stomach for raising rates and stop quantitative tightening? When will they reverse course and engage in ZIRP or even NIRP and QE?
* What will be the immediate consequences in the market and how can we get ahead of that trade?

Latest Inflation Readings:
usinflationcalculator.com

Treasury Yields (Watch for inversion or steepening):
bloomberg.com

Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow:
frbatlanta.org

The only rule on this thread is that we keep it civil. If someone demonstrates uncontrollable vitriol, I'll give one or more warnings, and then ultimately ban the instigator. Try to make your points without insulting people. If that is too much for you, then there are other threads where you may be welcomed, but not here.

New Poll...Ends March 25th
Votes Cast : 7
At what level will the SP 500 close at CYE'19?
Below 2,000
 
2
Near 2,300
 
0
Near 2,600
 
1
Near 2,900
 
1
Near 3,200
 
2
Above 3,500
 
1
 
This poll is now closed (poll closed on 31 Mar 2019).
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ReplyMessage PreviewFromRecsPosted
1257Exactly. The Fed is for the 1%. They levitate stocks and bonds by printing moneymindmeld-Saturday
1256BTW great articles thanks for bringing them to my attentionggersh-Saturday
1255Corporate and elitist welfare.....J6P not at all They’re rich socialists. But tggersh-Saturday
1254The Fed Detests Free Markets, Part 2 Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Autmindmeld1Saturday
1253The Fed Detests Free Markets Raúl Ilargi Meijer [graphic] Paul Gauguin Tahmindmeld1Saturday
1252On top of what you said in your post, the Fed is going hog wild with their "mindmeld-last Friday
1251It sure hasn't worked, especially not in the last 10 years. It's becominmindmeld-last Friday
1250Is Inflation Really Under Control? Authored by Patrick Hill via RealInvestmentAmindmeld-last Friday
1249There is one other thing that I want to emphasize here: I am very pragmatic whenRarebird-last Thursday
1248Since Reagan, Government has aligned itself with Big business. That is the root Rarebird-last Thursday
1247Hell, I've been out since summer 2017. No stocks for me until we get our nexmindmeld-last Tuesday
1246Me too, John. I have a good education, thanks to my parents, but I started this mindmeld-last Tuesday
1245Oh boy. Yes, it is QE forever. It's why the Fed must be abolished. They are mindmeld-last Tuesday
1244There's no doubt in my mind that Warren and Sanders will gain in popularity.mindmeld-last Tuesday
1243Doesn't sound quite euphoric yet? Dow 28k was received with a yawn mainstrJohn Vosilla-last Monday
1242Well, I guess us immigrants and sons of immigrants need to stick together. The John Vosilla-last Monday
1241I live in the real world. I know it is best to empower people rather than give tJohn Vosilla-last Monday
1240QE4EVER? Central banks are now clamoring to save the world from the debt monsteJohn Vosilla-last Monday
1239LOL. Well, Socialism is a road to hell, and all honest people with a little bit mindmeld-November 28
1238I got a headache just following all your links. I know little about Bolivia. WJohn Vosilla-November 16
1237Wow. Amazing. Well, I guess us immigrants and sons of immigrants need to stick tmindmeld-November 15
1236Good points. Lot's of naked swimmers in these markets.mindmeld-November 15
1235Let's talk about the "real world" John. I see tremendous income inRarebird-November 13
1234the fascists are all our leaders tRumpolini want democKacy by coup who the fuggersh-November 13
1233'tRumpolini' now that is a new one. Seems the fascists of today are alJohn Vosilla-November 12
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