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Strategies & Market Trends
US Inflation and What To Do About It
An SI Board Since April 2010
Posts SubjectMarks Bans Symbol
1339 26 0 AGG, CEF
Emcee:  mindmeld Type:  Moderated
When this thread started on 4/25/2010, the hottest financial book out was Michael Lewis' "The Big Short". The sub-prime bond market collapsed in 2007 and 2008, taking out the rest of the economy. The aftermath was 10% unemployment and unprecedented US Government spending and risk guarantees to prop up Wall Street firms that would have otherwise ceased to exist. All the perpetrators of this disaster walked away multi-millionaires and billionaires, leaving the rest of us holding the bag. No criminal suits were brought against the bankster execs, except for a few small fry scapegoats. The SEC suit of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan were a sham puppet's court and the Dodd-Frank financial reform didn't come close to addressing the underlying problems, and it has since been gutted. All of it was window dressing for an American public that isn't sophisticated enough to even begin to understand the nature or scope of the greatest public Treasury/Fed/Wall Street heist in US history that is still underway.

As of 2019, the bottom line is that the US debt continues to soar on the back of 9 years of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus, and is now clocking in at $22 Trillion. The end of deficits is nowhere in sight. Even though the Fed has been raising interest rates and shrinking their balance sheet, INFLATION has been bouncing around, recently dropping as low as 1.5% in March. The future for Inflation is uncertain, but the stock market feels frothy, and the monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts seem to have reached their last gasps.

This thread was started with the idea that these monetary and fiscal policies would inevitably result in inflation, especially now with the deregulation of banks and deficit binges that are ongoing. The only questions left to ask are as follows:
* When will we start to see inflation get out of control? Or does a massive debt to GDP ration mean deflation is now the dominant worry, as we saw in Japan?
* How far will the Fed go to protect stock markets?
* Who will benefit and how will they benefit? Who will lose and how?
* How can we position our portfolios for this to ensure we don't lose big?
* What publicly traded companies, sectors, or instruments will benefit and which will lose in a rapid inflationary environment or a deflationary one?
* When will the Fed lose the stomach for raising rates and stop quantitative tightening? When will they reverse course and engage in ZIRP or even NIRP and QE?
* What will be the immediate consequences in the market and how can we get ahead of that trade?

Latest Inflation Readings:

Treasury Yields (Watch for inversion or steepening):

Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow:

The only rule on this thread is that we keep it civil. If someone demonstrates uncontrollable vitriol, I'll give one or more warnings, and then ultimately ban the instigator. Try to make your points without insulting people. If that is too much for you, then there are other threads where you may be welcomed, but not here.

New Poll...Ends March 25th
Votes Cast : 7
At what level will the SP 500 close at CYE'19?
Below 2,000
Near 2,300
Near 2,600
Near 2,900
Near 3,200
Above 3,500
This poll is now closed (poll closed on 31 Mar 2019).
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ReplyMessage PreviewFromRecsPosted
1339We've had rolling recessions in various industries for years.. FANG and relaJohn Vosilla-7 hours ago
1338Total collapse and socialism end game then?John Vosilla-7 hours ago
1337Could be. I think we could continue to run at least through Nov this year, but amindmeld-yesterday
1336I'm accumulating gold and silver through the ETF ticker CEF. I think this ismindmeld-Sunday
1335Today we gasp, stagger, reel. The enormity of it all has finally overmatched ouJohn Vosilla1Sunday
1334 Or maybe with our reserve currency status, we will print to armageddon and blowJohn Vosilla-last Friday
1333But then again, how long can this go on? Could go one for another couple years. John Vosilla-last Friday
1332Agree we are late stage. Look at home building report just came out. calculaJohn Vosilla-last Friday
1331The Fed "Just Let The Cat Out Of The Bag", Admits Being Forced To Fuelmindmeld-last Thursday
1330I don't think it's real deflation. I think it's inflation that is unmindmeld-last Wednesday
1329Yeah, he's a gold bug.mindmeld-last Wednesday
1328Quite possibly, but mortgage rates are so darned low, I'm not sure we have mmindmeld-last Wednesday
1327The real question for us is this: is consumer spending a leading or a lagging inmindmeld-last Wednesday
1326Question are we on a deflationary spiral as Rickards and others say or an inflatJohn Vosilla-last Wednesday
1325James Rickards from August expected unwinding sooner than later.. Hit most all oJohn Vosilla-last Wednesday
1324Price adjustments much more sensitive to small movements in mortgage rates like John Vosilla-January 14
1323You might be right! If the bubble pops and jobs slow in the innovation sector, tmindmeld-January 14
1322I agree!mindmeld-January 14
1321I see the opposite. So many want out of SF,BOS or NYC.. Very high cost of livJohn Vosilla-January 11
1320Thanks for input. Amazed you are so positive on the innovation economy going foJohn Vosilla-January 11
1319I'm looking at homes more in the Beacon Hill, Back Bay, and South End areas.mindmeld-January 10
1318Will be interesting if real economy job losses, overbuilding and lax lending or John Vosilla-January 9
1317I'm hearing some of those rumblings thanks for sharing. Apparently Ohio jobJohn Vosilla-January 9
1316Absolutely. They are feeding at the trough. So you are correct in saying it is nmindmeld-January 9
1315Interesting thoughts about the Bankers not learning. Have you considered that mThe-Democrat1January 9
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