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Strategies & Market Trends
US Inflation and What To Do About It
An SI Board Since April 2010
Posts SubjectMarks Bans Symbol
1481 27 0 AGG, CEF
Emcee:  mindmeld Type:  Moderated
When this thread started on 4/25/2010, the hottest financial book out was Michael Lewis' "The Big Short". The sub-prime bond market collapsed in 2007 and 2008, taking out the rest of the economy. The aftermath was 10% unemployment and unprecedented US Government spending and risk guarantees to prop up Wall Street firms that would have otherwise ceased to exist. All the perpetrators of this disaster walked away multi-millionaires and billionaires, leaving the rest of us holding the bag. No criminal suits were brought against the bankster execs, except for a few small fry scapegoats. The SEC suit of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan were a sham puppet's court and the Dodd-Frank financial reform didn't come close to addressing the underlying problems, and it has since been gutted. All of it was window dressing for an American public that isn't sophisticated enough to even begin to understand the nature or scope of the greatest public Treasury/Fed/Wall Street heist in US history that is still underway.

As of 2019, the bottom line is that the US debt continues to soar on the back of 9 years of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus, and is now clocking in at $22 Trillion. The end of deficits is nowhere in sight. Even though the Fed has been raising interest rates and shrinking their balance sheet, INFLATION has been bouncing around, recently dropping as low as 1.5% in March. The future for Inflation is uncertain, but the stock market feels frothy, and the monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts seem to have reached their last gasps.

This thread was started with the idea that these monetary and fiscal policies would inevitably result in inflation, especially now with the deregulation of banks and deficit binges that are ongoing. The only questions left to ask are as follows:
* When will we start to see inflation get out of control? Or does a massive debt to GDP ration mean deflation is now the dominant worry, as we saw in Japan?
* How far will the Fed go to protect stock markets?
* Who will benefit and how will they benefit? Who will lose and how?
* How can we position our portfolios for this to ensure we don't lose big?
* What publicly traded companies, sectors, or instruments will benefit and which will lose in a rapid inflationary environment or a deflationary one?
* When will the Fed lose the stomach for raising rates and stop quantitative tightening? When will they reverse course and engage in ZIRP or even NIRP and QE?
* What will be the immediate consequences in the market and how can we get ahead of that trade?

Latest Inflation Readings:
usinflationcalculator.com

Treasury Yields (Watch for inversion or steepening):
bloomberg.com

Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow:
frbatlanta.org

The only rule on this thread is that we keep it civil. If someone demonstrates uncontrollable vitriol, I'll give one or more warnings, and then ultimately ban the instigator. Try to make your points without insulting people. If that is too much for you, then there are other threads where you may be welcomed, but not here.

New Poll...Ends March 25th
Votes Cast : 7
At what level will the SP 500 close at CYE'19?
Below 2,000
 
2
Near 2,300
 
0
Near 2,600
 
1
Near 2,900
 
1
Near 3,200
 
2
Above 3,500
 
1
 
This poll is now closed (poll closed on 31 Mar 2019).
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ReplyMessage PreviewFromRecsPosted
1481Spot on. Only would add the counter culture movement was not just older baby boJohn Vosilla1June 15
1480I actually downloaded a copy and skim read it. What a pile of garbage. I also remindmeld-June 12
1479And incredible when you thought it couldn't get any worse these commies douJohn Vosilla-June 11
1478It is totally crazy. It seems that all of our country's reactions are way oumindmeld-June 4
1477It's become a different world in recent years coming out of the financial crJohn Vosilla-June 3
1476What do you make of the recent events? Priorities so out of whack.. Are we totaJohn Vosilla-June 2
1475Wow. As the article said, I too knew some would get more than when they were wormindmeld-May 17
1474Thought you would appreciate this. dailywire.comRarebird-May 16
1473I can imagine. My father was into real estate for decades and I remember the helmindmeld-May 15
1472LOL. Biden's Ship of Fools. Here's what they will advise him to do. It wmindmeld-May 15
1471<< Can only imagine what they are doing to landlords behind the scenes latRarebird-May 15
1470Lots of excellent points you make. It is also control at the local level. I stJohn Vosilla-May 14
1469AOC, Bernie And Other Progressive All-Stars Will Advise Biden On Key Policy IssuJohn Vosilla-May 14
1468I saw that! Interesting.mindmeld-April 29
1467I know. It's very crazy. This country is no longer "moving" towardmindmeld-April 29
1466Interesting. Rarebird makes a point. He's generally center left, but koan ismindmeld-April 29
1465Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern The numbers told a shockingJohn Vosilla1April 21
1464Looking much more dire to me than a month ago irrespective of the stock market..John Vosilla-April 21
1463I think Republicans look at the world primarily through money or wealth accumulaJohn Vosilla-April 21
1462I know! It's absolutely insane. We're like the proverbial dodo birds runmindmeld-April 5
1461This thing of keeping everyone housebound has to end sometime soon, or the cure John Vosilla-April 4
1460I think we retest the lows and break through to a new low. I think we'll seemindmeld-April 3
1459Crazy times seems where we should be at an inflection point but instead now remaJohn Vosilla-April 2
1458Agree on all points of your post!mindmeld-March 25
1457The virus is bad enough, but the economic carnage that we are doing to ourselvesJohn Vosilla-March 25
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