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Strategies & Market Trends
US Inflation and What To Do About It
An SI Board Since April 2010
Posts SubjectMarks Bans Symbol
1095 22 0 AGG
Emcee:  mindmeld Type:  Moderated
When this thread started on 4/25/2010, the hottest financial book out was Michael Lewis' "The Big Short". The sub-prime bond market collapsed in 2007 and 2008, taking out the rest of the economy. The aftermath was 10% unemployment and unprecedented US Government spending and risk guarantees to prop up Wall Street firms that would have otherwise ceased to exist. All the perpetrators of this disaster walked away multi-millionaires and billionaires, leaving the rest of us holding the bag. No criminal suits were brought against the bankster execs, except for a few small fry scapegoats. The SEC suit of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan were a sham puppet's court and the Dodd-Frank financial reform didn't come close to addressing the underlying problems, and it has since been gutted. All of it was window dressing for an American public that isn't sophisticated enough to even begin to understand the nature or scope of the greatest public Treasury/Fed/Wall Street heist in US history that is still underway.

As of 2019, the bottom line is that the US debt continues to soar on the back of 9 years of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus, and is now clocking in at $22 Trillion. The end of deficits is nowhere in sight. Even though the Fed has been raising interest rates and shrinking their balance sheet, INFLATION has been bouncing around, recently dropping as low as 1.5% in March. The future for Inflation is uncertain, but the stock market feels frothy, and the monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts seem to have reached their last gasps.

This thread was started with the idea that these monetary and fiscal policies would inevitably result in inflation, especially now with the deregulation of banks and deficit binges that are ongoing. The only questions left to ask are as follows:
* When will we start to see inflation get out of control? Or does a massive debt to GDP ration mean deflation is now the dominant worry, as we saw in Japan?
* How far will the Fed go to protect stock markets?
* Who will benefit and how will they benefit? Who will lose and how?
* How can we position our portfolios for this to ensure we don't lose big?
* What publicly traded companies, sectors, or instruments will benefit and which will lose in a rapid inflationary environment or a deflationary one?
* When will the Fed lose the stomach for raising rates and stop quantitative tightening? When will they reverse course and engage in ZIRP or even NIRP and QE?
* What will be the immediate consequences in the market and how can we get ahead of that trade?

Latest Inflation Readings:

Treasury Yields (Watch for inversion or steepening):

Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow:

The only rule on this thread is that we keep it civil. If someone demonstrates uncontrollable vitriol, I'll give one or more warnings, and then ultimately ban the instigator. Try to make your points without insulting people. If that is too much for you, then there are other threads where you may be welcomed, but not here.

New Poll...Ends March 25th
Votes Cast : 7
At what level will the SP 500 close at CYE'19?
Below 2,000
Near 2,300
Near 2,600
Near 2,900
Near 3,200
Above 3,500
This poll is now closed (poll closed on 31 Mar 2019).
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1095<< Clinton 1992 and 1996 would be to the right of how Trump is governing tRarebird1Saturday
1094The chosen one, nah just disloyalggersh-Saturday
1093TDS at it's finest.... You must really hate him now..John Vosilla-last Friday
1092Lots of student loan problems. 22% overall in default. 50% of black students deJohn Vosilla-last Friday
1091I thought Clinton and Reagan were our best presidents in my lifetime by far untiJohn Vosilla-last Friday
1090I'm watching. Just looked at Seattle metro condo market for you. CalculateJohn Vosilla-last Friday
1089Rent, asset prices, education and health care the main inflation drivers this cyJohn Vosilla-last Friday
1088Pence will be at the funeral, anti tRumpolini.....ROFL unintended consequence oggersh-last Friday
1087RIP his brother today.. They are being trashed on Twitter by the left on their John Vosilla-last Friday
1086Quote from Charles Koch... -------- Charles Koch vs. Crony Capitalism “Good prmindmeld-August 16
1085Yes, he's doing it because he wants to get re-elected and not every Americanmindmeld-August 15
1084Trump backed off for a couple of likely reasons: 1. He wants to get reelected anRarebird-August 14
1083If China factory output is sinking, it means the world is buying less. This is bmindmeld-August 14
1082Of course, you are right about Trump, the tariffs, and China. I was disappointedmindmeld-August 14
1081Trump delaying the latest round of tariffs till December due to higher costs forRarebird-August 14
1080That's a heck of a lot of trades and I know it is a lot of work to be succesmindmeld-August 13
1079I am a swing trader and make in excess of 1,000 trades a year. Today, I made 11 Rarebird-August 13
1078You have a lot of precious metals in there. I know those have paid off nicely remindmeld-August 13
1077I am about as defensive as can be here without being short. It was very temptingRarebird-August 12
1076When A Bond Bull Becomes A Raving Stock Bull Authored by Lance Roberts via Realmindmeld-August 12
1075The Fed is so worried there's no inflation. I've been saying for years tmindmeld-August 12
1074Check this out. Interesting take on the long term in Africa. Gold, gold, gold. mindmeld-August 12
1073I see you have a flair for the dramatic, John. No, I never wanted you to "dRarebird-August 10
1072True, but maybe this time around it will be a recession lead by some other sectomindmeld-August 8
1071Maybe more of a corporate profits slowdown I think buffered in part by corporateJohn Vosilla-August 8
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