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Strategies & Market Trends
Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends
An SI Board Since October 2009
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Emcee:  humble1 Type:  Moderated
Welcome from Humble1

I want to thank Silicon Investor for this site.

Nothing said or done here by me or anyone should be construed as trading or investment advice! I am not certified or qualified as an analyst or a financial adviser. I am a private trader who tries to make money swing trading the daily SPX bars and selected equities, with help from friends.

H1&STF is for discussions about Time and Price for use in swing trading the SPX and selected equities. I consider gold and silver coins a valuable long term holding to be accumulated during sharp sell offs. All charts and discussions concerning gold and silver are welcomed.

Your posts and comments are encouraged. Whether bull or bear, they will be appreciated. Swing trading means trading in both directions.

Absolutely no foul language, or faux foul language and related acronyms, of any kind. We do not do politics (except strictly market related) or food fights.

Good Luck!

Fortuna Cornucopia

H1 Motto: In Utraque Fortuna Paratus

Astro Section

“Millionaires don't use Astrology, billionaires do.” - J.P. Morgan

"As above ...

"... so below."


Astro Gallery

The cosmic emphasis upon Jupiter and Neptune last week was a preview of what to expect for most of 2019, when Jupiter will make its waning square to Neptune three times, starting in mid-January.

This is one of the classical bankruptcy signatures in Financial Astrology, a time when people, as well as counties and companies, are prone to become too careless with monies, spending far more than they can afford. It is a time of over-optimistic hopes and dreams, most of which are not realistic. It is a combination of comedy and tragedy, because on the one hand, Saturn and Pluto in Capricorn, with the eclipse coming up in Capricorn in early January, portends the resolution to be disciplined and careful in finances. But then, on the other hand, Jupiter square Neptune looks at that shiny new car, that sparkling new piece of jewelry, and suddenly out goes that promised practicality and commitment to build one’s bank account. Out the window it goes for the fulfillment of an urge for immediate gratification. And then the bill comes due and you ask: “What was I thinking?” That’s the problem. You weren’t thinking. You were wishing upon a star, convincing yourself that you deserved this. Instead, you deserved a credit downgrade. I speak as if it is personal, but this is not just an individual problem. It is a problem with many governments that we are likely to see explode next year with Jupiter square Neptune. And that’s just the setup for the Capricorn Stellium that follows in 2020. If Jupiter in Sagittarius was overconfident and positive in 2018-2019, then Jupiter, Saturn, and Pluto converging in Capricorn right afterwards can be downright worried and pessimistic, unless it has planned well for this period. After all, in recessions and downturns, great bargains are possible for those who have cash.

The major challenge for Financial Astrologers is to determine whether the 2019 Jupiter/Neptune waning square will be the start of a real financial panic, or if this downturn will suddenly reverse and witness a huge rally and a “bubble” in stock prices. With Jupiter and Neptune, it can either be “irrational exuberance,” to borrow a phrase from former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, or hysteria and panic where people lose all sense of control and faith in their leaders. Right now, it looks more like the latter is happening. But I would not give up on Jupiter in Sagittarius just yet. After all, historically, it is one of the strongest planet-sign combinations correlating to strong rallies in global equities before it is over. Of course, you can have a steep selloff first, after which rallies can look very impressive. But generally speaking, the stock market makes longer-term cycle highs with Jupiter in Sagittarius (November 8, 2018-December 2, 2019), and then the air escapes out of the bubble as Jupiter advances into Capricorn-Aquarius (2020-2021). What went up must come down. - from Ray Merriman's free 12/10/18.

More from RM:

All of this precedes the first of three passages of the Jupiter/Neptune square on January 13, the dominant major aspect involving the outer planets in force in 2019. As described in greater detail in the Forecast 2019 Book, this aspect is the “setup” for the powerful “Capricorn Stellium” that will unfold December 2019 through December 2020. It pertains to irrational exuberance, complacency, and/or hysteria and panic. I would say we are collectively experiencing a combination back and forth between complacency and hysteria right now as we head into the first encounter, and the markets are reflecting this.


There are other geocosmic factors approaching that will be of interest to Financial Astrologers. For instance, on Sunday, January 20, Venus will form a square to Neptune. Two days later, on January 22, it will conjoin Jupiter. This is known as a “translation” to the Jupiter/Neptune square. Sometimes it takes a “translation” to the longer-term planetary aspect to coincide with its reversal. More important to Mundane Astrologers is the fact that a few weeks later, Venus will then conjoin both Saturn and Pluto. This “transition” of Venus from the Jupiter/Neptune square to the Saturn/Pluto conjunction is a preview of the “setup” we described in Forecast 2019. The “setup” of 2019 pertains to Jupiter square Neptune (January-September 2019), followed by the “Edge of the Cliff” symbolized by Saturn square Pluto and the entire “Capricorn Stellium of December 2019 through 2020, and even into 2022. In other words, we may get a preview of that “setup” and “cliff” might look like.

RM 2/18/19:

An even more important “translation” to the same set of aspects will follow with the Sun in March and April. That is, the Sun will conjoin Neptune and square Jupiter, March 6-13, and then head for a square to both Saturn and Pluto, April 10-13. Thus, this period offers another preview of what is to come, if not specifically in terms of market behavior, then in terms of political and economic scenarios. That is, first hopes and wishes, perhaps tinged with delusionary visions of “what could be,” followed by a smack in the face with cold reality, probably related to debt issues. It is very interesting to see the increasing attention being created for many socialistic policies, like free college education, guaranteed minimum annual payments by the government to everyone, even if you don’t work, to Medicare for all, at the same time the national debt is reported to exceed $22 trillion. These “parallel realities” are taking place as we leave the first Venus translation of Jupiter and Neptune (wishes, hopes, delusionary visions) and approach the Venus conjunction to Saturn and Pluto (hard, cold, reality involving debt) this week. The tax cut (Pluto) did not create the increase in revenues for the U.S. treasury that was expected. But I suspect all that will be forgotten soon as we approach the Sun’s translation to Jupiter/Neptune square in March – until we get to April, when the debt level again reaches a point of greater concern and makes headlines.

Each translation of Jupiter/Neptune by a faster moving planet, followed by that same planet’s translation of Saturn and Pluto soon afterwards, is likely to exhibit this pattern: first optimism based on hopes and wishes, then worry based on “How can we afford this with such debt?” This back and forth pattern progresses to less and less optimism and more and more concern the closer we get to 2020. The danger for traders and investors is that they become complacent, because every downturn in the market is still followed by healthy rallies, until Jupiter and Neptune finally separate after September. The danger for governments, institutions, companies and individuals is that if not careful, they may be headed for a credit crisis, such as bankruptcy (classical Jupiter/Neptune occurrences), where they spend far beyond what they can afford, falsely believing that everything is OK and will work out.

4/10/19 - Venus/c/Neptune

Perspective Gallery

gratus animus est una virtus non solum maxima,

sed etiam mater virtutum omnium reliquarum. – cicero

A Cup of Tea

Nan-in, a Japanese master during the Meiji era (1868-1912), received a university professor who came to inquire about Zen. Nan-in served tea. He poured his visitor's cup full, and then kept on pouring. The professor watched the overflow until he no longer could restrain himself. "It is overfull. No more will go in!" "Like this cup," Nan-in said, "you are full of your own opinions and speculations. How can I show you Zen unless you first empty your cup?"

te esse hominem memento; mortalem te esse. memento mori. respice post te. nam mors indecepta!



How big could that SPX 2941 top print have been?

Use your charts and ponder these hits (all, tm: H1):

422 -> 1553 = 1131

(422 was the april 1994 low and the start of the huge bull)

1810 + 1131 = 2941


769 -> 1576 = 807

2134 + 807 = 2941

(this is a market structure bryce gilmore folddown at the 1576-> 2134 midpoint)


666 -> 1369 = 703

703 x 3.236 = 2295

666 + 2295 = 2941

(3.236 = 2 x 1.618, appropriate extender for a huge bull)


1074 + 1867 = 2941

(additives from important pivots are not unusual. weird, yes.)


666 -> 1369 = 703

703 x 1.618 = 1137

1810 + 1137 = 2947

( 2941 was just 6 points shy of a perfect wave5 = 1.618 x wave1)


Chart Gallery

Blab Section

1) Lunar eclipses or full moons one cycle away from a lunar eclipse were always coincident to the beginning of the famous market crashes.
2) The full moon coincident to the beginning of the crash has always been within six weeks of a solar eclipse.
3) The “panic phases” of all 12 crashes Puetz studied were entirely encompassed within one of the following periods:
a) February 4-April 5
b) September 3- October 29


Bulletin: H1-Wave Update

We are correcting the 2518 advance: 4/4/94 -> 9/21/18-10/3/18, 422 -> 2940

12/26->2/13 could be counted as a fiver or an abc; either works perfectly for my count. It's simple; a cave man can do a rock painting with it:

1. Wave-A: 10/3 (or 9/21 if you must) -> 12/26

(the three internal waves are easy to see)

2. Wave-B: Wave-B, abc, may have just completed.

3. Wave-C: Will be horrid and over by 6/20/19 and/or by 10/31->11/1, the 90 year Gannie from 1929.

- 4/12/19

9/21 -> 12/26 = 96
4/12 + 96 = 7/17
Buy The Full Moon Lunar Eclipse!

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ReplyMessage PreviewFromPosted
32798w.r.t. the previous point and figure (new) VIX chart, when Sir Fintas showed it dospesos3 hours ago
32797[graphic] Another VIX look, adapted from the great Sir Fintas who suggested thidospesos5 hours ago
32796Weekly VIX FIX [graphic]humble18 hours ago
32795MACD goes -ive The MACD has a history hard to beat. Yes, it has recently had ahumble11 PM
32794" … and we are not even mentioning the slow pace of resolving the issue of humble111 AM
32793""Looking at the trajectory of policy rates and government bond yieldsdospesos10 AM
32792April, 18 2019 - This is a great article that just came out on the Macroeconomicsylvester8010 AM
32791Top Stuff [graphic] [graphic] [graphic]humble14 AM
32790UPDATED 18-4 2899.5--->2877.5--->2834.5......the latter being the 'beffinghell3 AM
32789bear target: spx < the 3/8->3/27 t/l the 3/8->3/27 lower t/l is risinhumble12 AM
32788dos: agree. he may have nailed the vix turn and that would be a big deal in thishumble112 AM
32787Always good to see Chris's work. A gentleman scholar.dospesosyesterday
32786>>>"One is reminded of Agamemnon's beehive tomb." Greatsylvester80yesterday
32785Some recent sentiment indicators to keep in mind: [graphic] [graphic]humble1yesterday
32784Thx....Bungalow Billyesterday
32783Tonight I will continue reading Steven Pressfield's "Virtues of War&quohumble1yesterday
32782VIX: "Bullish Range Bust Reversal Bar" (won't take much to blow thumble1yesterday
32781I think you may be surprised how much money some people on SI have managed. Youscoot1212yesterday
32780It was multi billions, once upon a time. Try and keep your NAV up while you havscoot1212yesterday
32779A bearish engulfer. What a perfect capstone of the dome of the Lindsay 3P+DH pathumble1yesterday
32778Scott, Of course I've managed a billion dollar hedge fund. Hasn't everyodospesosyesterday
32777"Billion" dollar fund? Where? He is down to $318 million so please letsylvester80yesterday
32776dos, it's easy to criticize, but have you ever managed a billion dollar hedgscoot1212yesterday
32775MUST READ: Powell Adopts an Inflation Stance Yellen Shunned Rich Miller and Craisylvester80yesterday
32774CHINA: LOL "What economy grows at 6.4% but sees total business electricityhumble1yesterday
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