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Strategies & Market Trends
The coming US dollar crisis
An SI Board Since May 2007
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Emcee:  Real Man Type:  Moderated
Persistent high trade deficit of the last few years,
extremely high level of USD reserves in foreign central banks,
and the recent series of interest rates cuts by US Federal reserve
have led to the dollar crisis, a sharp drop of our currency.

Any currency crisis eventually involves much higher 10-year and
30-year interest rates and a meltdown of all asset classes,
with the possible exception of precious metals. This thread
will focus on the discussion of ongoing USD currency crisis,
and the ways to survive it.



Long-term target (~ 3-5 years) if the Fed stays the course:



US asset prices may skyrocket, in dollars, along with commodities,
if these actions are taken to the extreme (as they were) and the country falls
into hyperinflationary depression. US asset prices will fall sharply
priced in sound currencies and gold.

Hyperinflation chart - USD in gold OZ, monthly, is a straight line that
goes to zero in 2011.

fx.sauder.ubc.ca*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2001&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2009&y=monthly&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=

Current tentative scenario: A double dip recession, with the second deeper dip
happening as the Fed tries to battle inflationary result of enormous bailouts. For it
to unfold, US has to come out of recession this year. Realistic scenario for USD:
Similar to 1985-95. The dollar will drop to new lows again and will probably bottom
in the 60-s. The grounds: US external net indebtedness is not that high.
$20 Trillion US assets held by foreigners, $17 Trillion foreign assets held by USA.
A genuine recovery after 2011-12 driven by manufacturing (optimistic scenario).
Hyperinflation for decades (pessimistic scenario).





"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom
brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only
whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of voluntary
abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final
and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. The
breakdown appears as soon as the banks become frightened by
the accelerated pace of the boom and begin to abstain from
further credit expansion."

-- Ludwig von Mises

The Dark Side of the Credit Boom

"Against this backdrop the crucial question is: where is the borderline between a "good" and "bad" rise in debt-to-GDP ratios? To Austrian economists the ratios spell danger. They maintain that today's government-controlled paper-money systems have decoupled credit expansion from the economies' productive capacities: "circulation credit" feeds a "credit boom" that is doomed to end in severe economic, social and political crisis. Austrians fear that the collapse of the credit boom will lead to the destruction of the currency through a deliberate policy of (hyper-)inflation, destroying the free-market order."

mises.org
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62465neolibs = fake people fcuk gates and his ilk they're all evilggersh-yesterday
62464gates, the taxdodging neoliberal seems worried that he may have to pay taxes... marcher2yesterday
62463[graphic] caucus99percent.comggersh2yesterday
62462time for the old folks to quit screwing-up the u.s. let the next generations takmarcher-Wednesday
62461Immigration to UK could soar under government’s post-Brexit plans - independent.Elroy Jetson-Wednesday
62460Ford Motor told British Prime Minister Theresa May that it is stepping up preparElroy Jetson-Wednesday
62459young folks think they deserve humane working conditions... progressives are so marcher2Wednesday
62458Hey Elroy, perhaps those clown cars will finally meet their maker!Slumdog-Monday
62457Tata Motors post highest loss due to Jaguar Land Rover woes - asiatimes.com . TElroy Jetson-Sunday
62456Coming to Britain....already happening in amerika? golemxiv.co.uk Regime Changggersh1Sunday
62455The Workplace Is Killing People...“I want this to be the Silent Spring of workplmarcher2last Saturday
62454 yep, even the lawyers on our side seem to be on their side. -n/ng-marcher-last Saturday
62453I certainly hope you're right cuz if not we be screwed to high heaven and lggersh-February 8
62452the cultural transition was signalled by the popularity of sanders in 2016-- themarcher-February 8
62451where will the spark come from? anyone's guess peaceful or not is the queggersh-February 8
62450yeah, so who does she think she is... stepping in my money pot like that??!!?? marcher-February 8
62449http://www.unz.com/tsaker/saker-interview-with-michael-hudson-on-venezuela/?fbclggersh1February 8
62448[youtube video]ggersh2February 8
62447important interview about the death of neoliberalism via davos: --When Rutger Bmarcher2February 7
62446German government rejects "nanny-state" autobahn speed-limit —— GeschwElroy Jetson-February 7
62445You never know what this random number machine will pop-out next. President TruElroy Jetson-February 6
62444To evade drug charges in the US three Americans moved to enjoy the freedom of AcElroy Jetson-February 4
62443ROFL....I keep forgetting to add Hollywood/CIA to those who believe in make beliggersh1February 4
62442Well, according to the case Judge Thomas Burnett, Sr et al v. The Islamic RepuThe Pre Beakerite1February 3
62441Great stuff. There is a lot of music out there in the universe -g- Thanks!The Pre Beakerite-February 3
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