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Strategies & Market Trends
The coming US dollar crisis
An SI Board Since May 2007
Posts SubjectMarks Bans
62544 374 0
Emcee:  Real Man Type:  Moderated
Persistent high trade deficit of the last few years,
extremely high level of USD reserves in foreign central banks,
and the recent series of interest rates cuts by US Federal reserve
have led to the dollar crisis, a sharp drop of our currency.

Any currency crisis eventually involves much higher 10-year and
30-year interest rates and a meltdown of all asset classes,
with the possible exception of precious metals. This thread
will focus on the discussion of ongoing USD currency crisis,
and the ways to survive it.



Long-term target (~ 3-5 years) if the Fed stays the course:



US asset prices may skyrocket, in dollars, along with commodities,
if these actions are taken to the extreme (as they were) and the country falls
into hyperinflationary depression. US asset prices will fall sharply
priced in sound currencies and gold.

Hyperinflation chart - USD in gold OZ, monthly, is a straight line that
goes to zero in 2011.

fx.sauder.ubc.ca*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2001&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2009&y=monthly&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=

Current tentative scenario: A double dip recession, with the second deeper dip
happening as the Fed tries to battle inflationary result of enormous bailouts. For it
to unfold, US has to come out of recession this year. Realistic scenario for USD:
Similar to 1985-95. The dollar will drop to new lows again and will probably bottom
in the 60-s. The grounds: US external net indebtedness is not that high.
$20 Trillion US assets held by foreigners, $17 Trillion foreign assets held by USA.
A genuine recovery after 2011-12 driven by manufacturing (optimistic scenario).
Hyperinflation for decades (pessimistic scenario).





"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom
brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only
whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of voluntary
abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final
and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. The
breakdown appears as soon as the banks become frightened by
the accelerated pace of the boom and begin to abstain from
further credit expansion."

-- Ludwig von Mises

The Dark Side of the Credit Boom

"Against this backdrop the crucial question is: where is the borderline between a "good" and "bad" rise in debt-to-GDP ratios? To Austrian economists the ratios spell danger. They maintain that today's government-controlled paper-money systems have decoupled credit expansion from the economies' productive capacities: "circulation credit" feeds a "credit boom" that is doomed to end in severe economic, social and political crisis. Austrians fear that the collapse of the credit boom will lead to the destruction of the currency through a deliberate policy of (hyper-)inflation, destroying the free-market order."

mises.org
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62544That these 3 clowns are in control is all we need to know as to how fucked we aggersh-April 2
62543The Problem With "Modern Monetary Theory" Is That It's True forbebruiser98-March 28
62542For any who might care [graphic]ggersh1March 27
62541Evil resides all over NYC WS/tRump/Hedge funds/PE/FEDggersh-March 27
62540more neoliberal opportunism: The UN’s housing advisor has accused...Blackstone marcher-March 26
62539well, if janet lets-make-the-rich-richer-and-the-majority-poorer yellen doesnmarcher1March 26
62538Yep.. MMT makes the case for land, guns, butter and gold.. Those with land andThe Black Swan-March 26
62537Former Fed Chair Yellen says bond market could be hinting need for rate cut — nobruiser98-March 26
62536Former Fed Chair Yellen says bond market could be hinting need for rate cut — nobruiser98-March 26
62535Yellen Says She’s ‘Not a Fan of MMT’ as List of Detractors Grows finance.yahoo.cbruiser98-March 26
62534Is China a factor in the mystery trading decline? Chinese markets’ 2018 performElroy Jetson-March 25
62533The four major trading banks have all been highlighting their huge decline in trElroy Jetson-March 25
62532wallstreetonparade.com By Pam Martens: March 24, 2019 ~ The Office of the Compggersh1March 25
62531they all put in their place few are willing to step up is the boomer gen reallggersh-March 25
62530--Under neoliberal capitalism, there are no commanding ethical visions. The publmarcher1March 25
62529Hardly a surprise as your son shares a more similar culture to those from CanadaElroy Jetson-March 24
62528I feel bad.. My son was sent to China on a 2 week cultural / language experienceThe Black Swan1March 24
62527As Venezuela continues to disintegrate, the Russian deep-state sent a passengerElroy Jetson-March 24
62526guess archbishop romero...er...pope francis lost favor of many rich catholic rigmarcher-March 24
62525An excellent and scary read, and what no one is seeing/focusing on caucus99percggersh2March 24
62524--And the rule of law is what you can get away with.-- scott mclemee here'smarcher1March 23
62523One thousand days ago Vladimir Putin financially sponsored the Brexit referendumElroy Jetson-March 19
62522The Swiss "central bank" is a for profit company traded on the stock eElroy Jetson1March 19
62521The Swiss National Bank Now Owns $87.5 Billion In US Stocks After Q2 Tech Buyingbruiser98-March 19
62520It was shocking when the Hong Kong central bank became the first to buy their lElroy Jetson-March 19
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