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Strategies & Market Trends
The coming US dollar crisis
An SI Board Since May 2007
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Emcee:  Real Man Type:  Moderated
Persistent high trade deficit of the last few years,
extremely high level of USD reserves in foreign central banks,
and the recent series of interest rates cuts by US Federal reserve
have led to the dollar crisis, a sharp drop of our currency.

Any currency crisis eventually involves much higher 10-year and
30-year interest rates and a meltdown of all asset classes,
with the possible exception of precious metals. This thread
will focus on the discussion of ongoing USD currency crisis,
and the ways to survive it.



Long-term target (~ 3-5 years) if the Fed stays the course:



US asset prices may skyrocket, in dollars, along with commodities,
if these actions are taken to the extreme (as they were) and the country falls
into hyperinflationary depression. US asset prices will fall sharply
priced in sound currencies and gold.

Hyperinflation chart - USD in gold OZ, monthly, is a straight line that
goes to zero in 2011.

fx.sauder.ubc.ca*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=2001&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2009&y=monthly&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=

Current tentative scenario: A double dip recession, with the second deeper dip
happening as the Fed tries to battle inflationary result of enormous bailouts. For it
to unfold, US has to come out of recession this year. Realistic scenario for USD:
Similar to 1985-95. The dollar will drop to new lows again and will probably bottom
in the 60-s. The grounds: US external net indebtedness is not that high.
$20 Trillion US assets held by foreigners, $17 Trillion foreign assets held by USA.
A genuine recovery after 2011-12 driven by manufacturing (optimistic scenario).
Hyperinflation for decades (pessimistic scenario).





"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom
brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only
whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of voluntary
abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final
and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. The
breakdown appears as soon as the banks become frightened by
the accelerated pace of the boom and begin to abstain from
further credit expansion."

-- Ludwig von Mises

The Dark Side of the Credit Boom

"Against this backdrop the crucial question is: where is the borderline between a "good" and "bad" rise in debt-to-GDP ratios? To Austrian economists the ratios spell danger. They maintain that today's government-controlled paper-money systems have decoupled credit expansion from the economies' productive capacities: "circulation credit" feeds a "credit boom" that is doomed to end in severe economic, social and political crisis. Austrians fear that the collapse of the credit boom will lead to the destruction of the currency through a deliberate policy of (hyper-)inflation, destroying the free-market order."

mises.org
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61688White House Economic Clown Larry Kudlow today ridiculed, "the very unfair Elroy Jetson-54 minutes ago
61687Great video. Thanks to Roguedolphin. Victor Sperandeo: Large US Banks Rigged thbruiser98-4 hours ago
61686What makes yo so sure they want a species like us? Far as I am told, the AliensThe Pre Beakerite-6 hours ago
61685What makes yo so sure they want a species like us? Already here, ya that seed wggersh-8 AM
61684Yep print for the needy, no printing for the people it's getting very old oggersh-7 AM
61683Just finished watching this one on the BBC. Riveting if you don't know whatThe Pre Beakerite-6 AM
61682"Just How Are You Libfucks Going to PAY For It?" That's an easy The Pre Beakerite-yesterday
61681Why Is This Supersafe Bank Scaring the Fed? (Arbing The Federal Reserve) confoubruiser98-yesterday
61680Oh ya, right on cue the big bad socialism v great capitalism on demand caucus99ggersh-yesterday
61679I look forward to hearing the news on the renaming of the Bay Bridge to the &quoThe Pre Beakerite-yesterday
61678[graphic] [graphic] caucus99percent.comggersh-yesterday
61677We once had an emperor. -g- en.wikipedia.orgggersh1yesterday
61676my prediction...amerikans are goin to keep getting fucked by banksters and tptb.ggersh-yesterday
61675A new Irish silver coin. bbc.co.ukThe Pre Beakerite-yesterday
61674The laws are the rules. Well, they are supposed to be. Your bank balance isnThe Pre Beakerite-Tuesday
61673Shit like this matters only if amerika was ruled by law instead it is laws makinggersh-Tuesday
61672"Off the Charts" -lol-... Just like Mueller... he has been "off tThe Pre Beakerite-Tuesday
61671Pay no attention to the theft of taxpayer funds and reckless disregard for the wElroy Jetson-Monday
61670“Remember when nurses, caregivers, teachers and students crashed the stock markeggersh2Monday
61669For God's sake. Trump has become involved with Nose-Flags again. [graphic]Elroy Jetson-Monday
61668Another crime solved by Scotland Yard !!! I am so amazed -g-The Pre Beakerite-Monday
61667found at the scene, be careful [graphic] caucus99percent.comggersh3Monday
61666Looks like some of the Russian agents on holiday in Salisbury haven't got tThe Pre Beakerite-Sunday
61665-g- [youtube video]ggersh-last Saturday
61664she speaks beautifully. --wink/wink--marcher-last Saturday
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