SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks
Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
An SI Board Since June 1996
Posts SubjectMarks Bans Symbol
10920 222 0 LRCX
Emcee:  Cary Salsberg Type:  Unmoderated
In April, under the Tencor thread, I predicted that the semi
equipment stocks would test their January and March lows.

I was merely looking at a TREND since last summer and acknowleging
that the street had a STORY, i.e. semi equips are cyclical and the
boom cycle is ending.

Today's Lam announcement, AMAT's a few week ago, Merril Lynch's new
neutral ratings, and company warnings, in general, in the quarterly
reports have pushed many close to January and March price levels.

I would love to buy about 10 of these companies, right now, but the
TREND and STORY (see above) scare me.

If the negative scenario is played out, semi-equips will report
significant decreases in sales and earnings and in some cases zero
earnings or losses.

I believe the semi-equips will move lower from here in anticipation
of the negative scenario, but I believe nobody knows how extreme the
end of the boom cycle will be.

This will create a GREAT long term (3-5 years; 3-10 times your money)
buying opportunity. I will buy the good leading edge semi-equips
when I can pay no more than 2 times cash and 1.5 times book!

I am interested in critical comments based on empirical data!

Thank you.

Previous 25 | Next 25 | View Recent | Post Message
Go to reply# or date (mm/dd/yy):
ReplyMessage PreviewFromRecsPosted
10920You're probably right. SOX isn't even down to January 2014 levels. [grInvestor2-10/14/2014
10919i think it could get much worse. !!! the blood is just starting to spirt!rsie-10/13/2014
10918Yes, i'm sure that does have a lot to do with the dormancy of the thread.Investor2-8/18/2013
109174 of the top 6 thread contributors no longer post on SI. That could have a lot The Ox-8/18/2013
10916Yes, it's interesting how the thread suddenly died after more than 10,000 poInvestor2-8/17/2013
10915Wonder when this thread would be OFFICIALLY DEAD Or is that DEAD MONEYPink Minion-8/17/2013
10914<i>I think we could see the next batch of EPS upwards revisions in Januaryetchmeister-1/8/2010
10913 Also AMAT is relatively big, which would create some tendency to be slightly lTimF-12/18/2009
10912As Fisher says, the last leg down and the first leg up are driven by psychology Cary Salsberg-12/18/2009
10911Funny how AMAT, supposedly one of the "top companies", had the smallesInvestor2112/17/2009
10910Recent Merrill Lynch EPS forecasts: AMAT FY11 $0.98 ASML CY11 e1.71 KLACary Salsberg-12/17/2009
10909I think we could see the next batch of EPS upwards revisions in January. The punetchmeister-12/17/2009
10908I think we could see the next batch of EPS upwards revisions in January. The punetchmeister-12/17/2009
10907<i>we could be 6 to 9 months from an economic recovery</i> Signs alThe Ox-12/17/2009
10906RE: "But the future of the companies in the years and decades to come is imCary Salsberg-2/21/2009
10905RE: "Now, we are in uncharted territory." Agreed. We could be on theInvestor2-2/20/2009
10904 Sometimes "worse they have ever seen" isn't really accurate, or TimF-2/20/2009
10903RE: "You being so bearish..." I just finished listening to earnings cCary Salsberg-2/20/2009
10902Cary, You being so bearish, We must be close!!!cluka-2/20/2009
10901RE: "Does this qualify for BLOOD in the streets..." NO! TraditionallCary Salsberg-2/20/2009
10900BtB the worst we've ever seen, imo. Not just the ratio but the actual #s thThe Ox-2/20/2009
10899That sounds logical. Best wishes, I2Investor2-11/20/2008
10898Well, I am not surprised you are confused, but I did not say anything about ruleCary Salsberg-11/20/2008
10897Let me see if I understand your rules for this board. It is ok for you to talk Kirk ©511/20/2008
10896I still own shares.Kirk ©-11/20/2008
Previous 25 | Next 25 | View Recent | Post Message
Go to reply# or date (mm/dd/yy):