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Strategies & Market Trends
The Great Coin Toss Experiment II
An SI Board Since January 2003
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Emcee:  Jorj X Mckie Type:  Unmoderated
For some reason, the first thread that I created is not visible to me. So, I'll try again.

The History: I was talking to my Mother in Law's stockbroker the other day. The conversation got around to whether or not the stock market is predictable. I said that it was to some extent. He said that I couldn't beat a coin toss. I am going to try and prove him wrong.

The parameters are simple:
1. I will use the Nasdaq Composite for the experiment
2. There are only two options, up or down.
3. Heads = up, tails = down
4. If there is a day with no change, it will be discarded from the experiment
5. My prediction and the coin toss will be done before the market opens. If I miss a day, it is discarded from the experiment.
6. It is acceptable for me to predict days in advance

If anyone would like to do their own coin toss experiment, they are welcome to post it here as well.
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188there is a example: I shorted GS on 3 solid signals, they raised $2 and today thSojourner Smith-6/18/2003
187thanks I will look into that.Sojourner Smith-6/17/2003
186I wrote to several developers for tradestation and found out tradestation canSojourner Smith-6/17/2003
185have you traded your system with real money yet?Jorj X Mckie-6/17/2003
184Hi SS, If you have a sizeable account then you might want to drop a post to Tombbgold-6/17/2003
183I am not really worried about anyone taken my ideas, because nobody seems to undSojourner Smith-6/17/2003
182typos corrected: Thanks you brought up some good points. The problem I had when Sojourner Smith-6/17/2003
181I keep trying to explain my hedge strategy and I have stumped some well-known sySojourner Smith-6/17/2003
180I think it is humbling to think that even knowledgable traders can't beat a Sojourner Smith-6/17/2003
179Thanks you brought up some good points. The problem I had when I started tradingSojourner Smith-6/17/2003
178Hi SS, I will post a reply over here as WLD seems to not want to be bothered wibbgold-6/17/2003
177morgan.rutgers.eduSojourner Smith-6/15/2003
176shazam.econ.ubc.ca I ran my own coin-toss experiment. Using money management oSojourner Smith-6/15/2003
175I'll have to start the experiment up again...I tend to forget that I am doinJorj X Mckie-5/31/2003
174Jorj, I didn't think you could beat the coin by any considerable margin. NotSteve Felix-5/31/2003
173you are taking the coin toss experiment far more seriously than I. The fact is Jorj X Mckie-5/31/2003
172The site is just fantastic. Forget a 0, edit your post and post twice. What do Steve Felix-5/31/2003
171<He said that I couldn't beat a coin toss.> Dude, what do you have toSteve Felix-5/31/2003
170<He said that I couldn't beat a coin toss.> Dude, what do you have toSteve Felix-5/31/2003
169thanks. I have been trading about 6 years, and I finally feel confident.Sojourner Smith-5/16/2003
168still, very nice.Jorj X Mckie-5/16/2003
167That's using about $150,000, so the % gain on each trade is small. However,Sojourner Smith-5/16/2003
166nice returns..... I think that the key is the money management, regardless of tJorj X Mckie-5/16/2003
165I am currently not using my automatic system, however I am using a method that ISojourner Smith-5/16/2003
164well I am back in the lead, and now that we had two down days in a row, I am goiJorj X Mckie-5/8/2003
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