Funny how truly important issues which define the larger picture often go undiscussed, seemingly forgotten amidst the massive daily bombardment of relative trivia, as the mood swings wildly back and forth, as if each daily revelation either hammers another nail into coffin lid, or provides the spark of hope from which a short term rally might arise. Maybe it’s the fact that big issues are more difficult to grasp, require time to work through, or as is often the case, prove too difficult or too controversial for people to discuss rationally. For whatever reasons, big issues are frequently sublimated, and end up lost in the fray. But that doesn’t change the fact that a big issue can, and almost always does, determine the outcome of the entity, be it a small or medium sized business, a corporate behemoth, or the US economy.
|An SI Board Since February 2001|
Consider this statement: The overall issue which caused the crash of the NASDAQ stock market was the DOJ vs MSFT decision.
One would expect this statement to arouse a certain degree of controversy, since the emotionality of the pro-MSFT vs anti-MSFT populations rival that of pro-life vs pro-choice. But regardless of one’s MSFT “faith” persuasion, the DOJ decision coincided in time with, and would appear, at least to a degree, to have precipitated, the loss of leadership and subsequent unwinding of the technology industry. Few would question that the ensuing crash of the NASDAQ, has contributed largely to the current US economic crisis.
The huge impact that this would have on the economy was foreseen by few. Yes, Mr. Greenspan may have been a little loose with the pursestrings on the way up, enabling overspeculation and increased debt, but he probably could have been successful in moderating growth by gradually raising rates, as he has done so many times before, had it not been for the DOJ decision. In 20-20 hindsight, either DOJ or interest rate increases alone might have been effective in moderating the economy, but not both. As we frantically lower rates, at the expense of abandoning our vigilance against inflation, trying to clean up a mess, how much of that mess was created by the DOJ?
We will try to successfully separate emotionality from facts surrounding DOJ vs MSFT. All viewpoints are encouraged.