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With all the money that has poured into biotech companies in the past year -- estimated to be ~$40 billion -- it is reasonable to expect that suppliers to biotechs should benefit via a trickle down effect. Hence the name. It is estimated that roughly 15% of that is spent on Trickle products for a guesstimated Trickle market size of ~$6 billion. That’s probably conservative. Since there are many types of suppliers, how broadly to define "biotech supplier"/trickle down beneficiary is a toughie. In the interest of diversification, and in catching all the above-mentioned cash, I've defined trickle broadly. Take a glance at the taxonomy below to get an idea of the breadth of my definition. The portfolio/watchlist and its thread are part index and part trading tool, as well as a forum for trickle news, discussion, and education. Started October 31, 2000. In the portfolio below, stocks with a value in the “# of shares” field are owned by the Trickle Portfolio, while the rest are on the watchlist. To qualify for inclusion on the watchlist, a company must have at least 2/3 of its revenue from life science trickle or a very clear trickle bias in its mission statement for the near future as a result of divestiture or strategic shifts. I say life science because a lab is a lab, whether it is in a biotech, a pharma, or an academic/independent institute, and many trickle companies attempt to sell to all three. Many trickle companies have customers in areas of chemistry and instrumentation outside of the life sciences, as their products work well in those disciplines, too. To be purchased by the Trickle Portfolio, a watchlist company must be perceived by me to be a good value versus its potential and to be a 1) category killer, or, 2) successful/very promising niche player, or, 3) buyout candidate. I post my targets and trades for posterity and help. Because of the breadth of the sector as defined, Trickle will make an attempt to keep individual positions below 10% of portfolio assets to keep the weighting representative. For the fact is that I am very much an amateur at this. I try to compensate with energy, but the quality of discussion is due mostly to the high caliber of the folks who post here with good decorum. Some of these are actual users of trickle products, whose input is especially prized. I am good mostly for trying to ask the right questions, and I am indebted to all of my knowledgeable posters for answers. Polite discussion and suggestions for picks and targets are invited. You folks know the difference between a reasoned and well-presented rationale for a candidate company's inclusion, and spam, I trust. Note that this is very much a work in progress. Market size numbers are very rough and very open to discussion. This subject message, the taxonomy, and the links will be refined regularly until I am tired of doing it, or satisfied, whichever comes first. In other words, indefinitely. I will try to let y’all know when I do this. Everyone’s input on all three of those items is welcome. Here is my humble Trickle Taxonomy. A category is given along links(s) to the industry association(s) representing its players. Subcategories are given along with the websites of companies playing in that space that can be considered fairly pure trickle plays as noted above. Obvious favorites are missing because of a combination of a) being private, &/or b) they’re not pure trickle plays, or c) are owned by a non-tricklish company. When I get this refined to my liking, it will serve as my guide in portfolio management and research. Again, this is an early effort; I’ve got a few things scrambled; all help in sorting it out gratefully accepted.
This portfolio was started with $100K. For newbies to the SI biofreak style of portfolio management, here's how to interpret portfolio performance based on the bottom line numbers: Take Total Cost and subtract 100,000. Then add(subtract) the Total Gain/Loss. Replace the comma with a period and tack a percent sign on the end. Presto! You have the actual performance since inception. As I type, the example is: 107,612 - 100,000 - 19,285 ===> -11.673%. Final warning: Usual disclaimers about doing your Due Diligence go double here given my amateur status. I and my Mom own some of these stocks, and I periodically give ownership updates. Further, I often refer to the portfolio anthropomorphically, refer to myself in the third person, and rarely put “<g>”s after my regular attempts at humor. Don’t worry. I’m OK, and more normal than you might guess. Cheers, Tuck | ||||||||||||
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