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Value Line Investment Survey
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Emcee:  OldAIMGuy Type:  Unmoderated

This thread is for the discussion of Value Line's Stock (ticker VALU) as well as the Value Line Investment Survey and its various screens, indicators and estimates. Discussion on investments based on Value Line's screens, recommendations, etc. are also welcome. Direct investment in Value Line's recommendations has been difficult in the past, but several new Exchange Traded Funds have come to market in recent years to offer the investor nearly direct access. PIV, PYH and FVL are examples.
(Discussion of PYH here: Subject 57381 )

The information is valuable the way it's presented by them but is also useful when combined with data from other sources. One which we've been monitoring is Value Line's "Appreciation Potential." We've taken the value and modified it slightly and compared it to the market's various indexes. The result is what we're calling the ValuWave:

Good correlation can be seen between the movement of the indexes and the ValuWave Cash Indicator. We use this to get a feel for what our overall Equity/Cash ratio should be compared to how Value Line's Appreciation Potential perceives overall market risk. High cash suggestions should correspond to high risk markets. In spot checks going back to 1987 we find it has been very good at calling market conditions. The "zero cash" point is derived from the VLAP's highest reading in December of 1974. It peaked at +234% potential appreciation that year. So, assuming we never see that much potential again, our v-Wave won't recommend a cash reserve below zero.

Here's another indicator using Value Line weekly data. This one subtracts Value Line's "Median Dividend Yield" from the 13 Week U.S. Treasury Rate to come up with a relative risk evaluation for stocks vs short term treasuries.

(see Post Message 25488296 for more details)

Here's the latest 3+ years:

Generally, anything deeply below Zero is very bullish and anything well above 2 would be rather bearish it appears.

Please feel free to make other suggestions for indicators based upon Value Line's various regular features.

Best regards,
Tom Veale
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217Good to see that you're still around and kickin'... I also have given uEL KABONG!!!-June 22
216I continue to subscribe to the main service. It has been OK for me, but I plan Labrador-June 22
215Hi L, Re: VLIS.............. I've been using Value Line for a very long timeOldAIMGuy-June 22
214Back in 2011, I subscribed primarily to provide an elderly family member with reLabrador-2/11/2014
213With business news telling us about new market index highs it is a bit of a surpOldAIMGuy-3/27/2013
212Hi L, Re: Value Line's overall business............................. It seOldAIMGuy-3/23/2012
211thanks for the reply. i actually bought some at that price, and continue to hoLabrador-3/22/2012
210Hi L, Re: VALU price drop since three years ago................. This has been OldAIMGuy-3/22/2012
209The share price has sure fallen 10.25, but the yield is outstanding and earningsLabrador-12/28/2011
208The ValueWave Market Risk Indicator has fallen quite a bit in recent weeks. It&#OldAIMGuy-9/13/2011
207Thanks EK, Re: China Biotics............................ It's never a good OldAIMGuy-7/7/2011
206Here's something you don't see very often in Value Line. China Biotics hEL KABONG!!!-7/1/2011
205Since PowerShares has changed from using Value Line's Timeliness Index as thOldAIMGuy-1/12/2011
204Here's a year's worth of history using VALU as an investment and managinOldAIMGuy-3/24/2010
203Hi EK, Sorry! I've been out of touch for quite a while. Lost password!!! [gOldAIMGuy-3/23/2010
202Hi Tom, What are your charts and screens "telling" you? I had noticeEL KABONG!!!-8/21/2009
201Re: v-Wave Information........... With the help of a good friend, I've been OldAIMGuy-4/6/2009
200Hi Kirk, That would be an interesting period for which to have data. I collectedOldAIMGuy-3/13/2009
199Can you get any data points for the 1970s and 1980s? If we return to a high infKirk ©-3/12/2009
198Re: Value Line Median Dividen Yield............... I've been fiddling with OldAIMGuy-3/12/2009
197<b>Best Investment Opportunity in Over 25 Years</b> By Charles RotheOldAIMGuy-2/23/2009
196Hi EK, We've reconstituted the v-Wave to get it to only show a zero or lowerOldAIMGuy-12/2/2008
195The v-Wave continues to show a deeply oversold condition to the market. [graphiOldAIMGuy-11/10/2008
194Hi El, The ValuWave dropped even futher this week. This, I believe shows the buiOldAIMGuy-11/6/2008
193Hi El, Re: ValuWave.............. I guess I have always looked at the "AppOldAIMGuy-10/30/2008
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