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Strategies & Market Trends
The Art of Investing
An SI Board Since August 1998
Posts SubjectMarks Bans Symbol
10883 190 1 PICK
Emcee:  Sun Tzu Type:  Moderated
Let's devote this forum to sharing the strategies and tactics for investors with an "intermediate" time horizon of two months to two years. There is no greater teacher than experience, so if you choose to graciously share your successes and failures in the market, or to discuss a current position you hold, may I suggest that you focus on explaining your investment criteria, and what would make you reconsider your position.

The distinction between investing and trading is subtle but significant. Here investing means a position that either you do not feel compelled to worry about over the next 6 - 60 months, or that if it takes a substantial hit (greater than 25% and ideally a 50% hit) then you will actually be excited about the opportunity to purchase more at those lower prices rather than worry about the hit to your portfolio. Another way to think about it is that if you were to take an extended vacation for a few months to somewhere without Internet, you'd be comfortable with your investment and it would not ruin your vacation to not be watching it.
Subjects that are relevant to this thread include:
(1) Why a stock or commodity is a great investment now (per above definition of investment)
(2) How you scan for your investments and ideas
(3) How you balance your portfolio and manage risk
(4) Where you think the market is headed (over the next 6 - 60 months) and how you'd play it.
(5) Overall market risk/danger signals
(6) How the valuation of your pick compares within its history, sector, and the broader market.
(7) Economic, sector, and company news - if and only if you put it in an investment context ([e.g. company XYZ is getting hammered due to poor EPS report, and is now selling at a historically low price-to-sales ratio)

Topics that are not welcomed:
(1) Daytrading technics
(2) Pumping/cheerleading a stock without any thoughtful analysis behind the post.

If you want to understand my trading/investing style, read the full thread below twice. He does a better job explaining my method than I have ever done myself. Then appreciate that I almost always follow the trend, unless and until I see a counter trend developing near my red/green lines. Those are the times where likely everyone has moved to one side of the boat and it may tip over.

Useful Resources:

Prof. Aswath Damodaran's investment valuation blog
Dr. Ed's Blog - Yardeni Research
Lyn Alden – Investment Strategy
How They Make Money
How to Analyze a 10-K
Research & Insights — Bridgewater Associates
Mohamed A. El-Erian
PIMCO Blog | PIMCO Blog
Newfound Research Blog
Ray Dalio - Bridgewater Associates
lazyportfolioetf.com
investopedia.com
evidenceinvestor.com
tipranks.com
zacks.com
simplywall.st
finviz.com
fknol.com
earningswhispers.com

marcellagerwerf.com

NOTE: US law by default treats all work as copyrighted. If you run a chat room or a newsletter, you must reference the ideas that you get from this board properly and give credit where it is due.


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ReplyMessage PreviewFromRecsPosted
10883OT - Paul Walsh 7h Edited Microsoft has just fired the head of its Israeli subSun Tzu3last Wednesday
10882SBET... Added today filled out the .25 Position. We shall see. 60sixty2nds-May 12
10881ABCL Q1 Earning Transcript finance.yahoo.comSultan-May 12
10880SBET I'm taking a 3rd swing at SBET. I've been Stopped Out 2X for smalsixty2nds-May 11
10879FTNT.....EQX Stellar Earnings report. In fact it is probably a gamechanger. Ifsixty2nds1May 9
10878Press Release | May 3, 2026 U.S. Military Supports Launch of Project Freedom in Sun Tzu-May 4
10877Earnings call transcript: Butterfly Network Q1 2026 beats expectations inveSultan1April 30
10876Thank you. You make a reasonable case on why he goes to the cellar. I should addSun Tzu1April 30
10875I like version 1 .. It was tight, concise, to the point narrative etc. AlthoughSultan2April 29
10874Notes on how the story was improved: 1. The original shows Vance to be careful Sun Tzu-April 29
10873I like it better too. Training was taking too long. So I told the AI to rewrite Sun Tzu1April 29
10872That is much better, night and day difference. What do you think?Qone0-April 29
10871The training is going to take longer than expected. But I think I've found aSun Tzu-April 29
10870I don't know about other AI because I've spent most of my time with ChatSun Tzu2April 28
10869I will buy the book Altered Carbon, read it, then check out the Netflix series. sixty2nds-April 28
10868One bothersome "feature" of AI is how it seemingly equates word count ajtj991April 28
10867An AI after my own heart<G>Qone0-April 28
10866Try convincing Gemini that it is Emanuel Kant and should treat following instrucSun Tzu1April 28
10865I create virtual personas. It becomes easier dealing with AI that way (for both Sun Tzu1April 28
10864That book is one of the sources it trains on. I love cyberpunk. You should watcSun Tzu-April 28
10863Same thing is true with Gemini. I'm curious why did you give the AI a gendesixty2nds-April 28
10862I think you hit on what shut William Gibson down. Remember Neuromancer? Cheers,sixty2nds-April 28
10861I just critiqued what the AI wrote and gave it patches to improve its writing. Sun Tzu1April 28
10860The real difficulty is the recursive and circular nature of creative writing. GeSun Tzu-April 28
10859I've actually had her write a highly subtext driven story where the really sSun Tzu1April 28
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