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Strategies & Market Trends
AMAZON.COM RIDICULOUSLY OVERVALUED BY ANY MODEL (AMZN)
An SI Board Since March 1998
Posts SubjectMarks Bans Symbol
182 4 0 AMZN
Emcee:  Candle stick Type:  Unmoderated
Hello again. This is my favorite section in SI: 'OVERVALUED STOCKS! Very breifly I will say that AMZN is a great place to buy books. BUT, that does not make its stock price justifiable. For 1997 AMZN had approximately 140 million in sales, very large losses and a current market cap of near 1.8 billion dollars. The Price/Sales ratio is nearly 13. Compare this to BGP or Barnes and Noble(BKS) with sales of 2.7 billion and a market cap of 2.3 billion and you find a P/S of about 0.75!!! AMZN is selling at 17 times the price of BKS, an established, profitable company. Ridiculous.

There are currently 31 booksellers on the 'net that I am aware of. Included soon will be Bertelsman AG, the German conglomerate, and Borders Group, the second largest Bookseller in the U.S. . Barnes and Noble are already here. AMZN had the field all to itself in the beginning, but now it faces stiff 800 pound gorilla competition.

Also, the float has been just 3 million shares with 19.3 million in lockup by insiders. These 'lockup' shares recently became unrestricted, and in the month of Feb. 1998 alone, there have been 20 form 144 filings by insiders registering stock for sale. The float is about to be heavily diluted.

At a recent price of 79, I believe AMZN to be an excellent short, and that it has no business being in anyone's portfolio. I fully expect the stock to fall to 20 dollars by yearend.

Best of luck to all, and if you have enjoyed the recent runup in AMZN, I believe it is best to take your profits at this time........;^)
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182 Can anyone tell me what the best puts to buy on Amazon are? I want OUT OF THE Cascade Berry-10/28/1999
181 Hi Alastair McIntosh; It turns out that my <i>cogent analysis of Amazon&Bilow-10/27/1999
180 Hi Investor2; There are a lot of daytraders who trade profitably, and they accBilow-10/27/1999
179 Hi Bilow. There have been many recent news articles about "daytrader"Investor2-8/16/1999
178 Carl, After all too many shocks, and a lousy return, I finally gave up day traGary Korn-8/16/1999
177 Hi Gary Korn; Regarding that TLAB/CIEN arbitrage. I was on a Nas level-2 workBilow-8/16/1999
176 Carl, My scariest story from last year involves an arbitrage of CIEN and TLAB.Gary Korn-8/16/1999
175 I'm still berating myself for not shorting IRID when one of the techniciansBilow-8/15/1999
174 <i>I hope you had a stop loss on that short. Mine right now, is $200</Gary Korn-8/15/1999
173 Hi Gary Korn; Back in spring of '97, AMZN was still growing like a weed. Bilow-8/15/1999
172 Carl, Your analyses are superb, you've really done an excellent job. UnfoGary Korn-8/15/1999
171 Hi Gary Korn; Yeah, the law of large numbers (which as a mathematician / statiBilow-8/15/1999
170 <i>Another way of putting this is to say that AMZN's growth rate has Gary Korn-8/15/1999
169 Carl, thanks for posting that cogent analysis of Amazon. Your analysis may evAlastair McIntosh-8/2/1999
168 How are AMZN's international sales growing? We can pull the data out of thBilow-8/1/1999
167 I guess it's time to get some numbers on how AMZN is doing in the book busiBilow-8/1/1999
166 Re: WMT vs. AMZN growth rates. While reading back through prior The Motley FooBilow-8/1/1999
165 Before this most recent quarter's report, The Motley Fool (TMF) had this toBilow-7/31/1999
164 Hi Dale Baker; Long mathematical note on the quarterly revenue series for AMZN,Bilow-7/31/1999
163 The reason I don't short Internuts like AMZN is that I could go out for theDale Baker-7/31/1999
162 Hi Dale Baker; No question that AMZN is terminally overvalued at these prices. Bilow-7/31/1999
161 I'm holding August 90 puts on AMZN at the moment. No consensus out there iDale Baker-7/31/1999
160 Hi Dale Baker; We'd make an occasional post to this thread or it will go tBilow-7/31/1999
159 Any investment that goes to zero must eventually be declared "substantiallDale Baker-1/1/1999
158 "Short-sellers are the only share holders (excluding options-owners) Nikole Wollerstein-1/1/1999
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