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It is agreed that stock prices are high. Some say justifiably so, others say we're in the tulip bulb stage of prolonged irrational exuberance.
It is also agreed that the economy is in great shape. Some say it's a new era, others say that the #s looked great in the late 1920s too, and history has its lessons .
IMO these are the last days of the third and last leg of the three years bull run, which in itself is the third and last leg of the 15 years bull run, which I found to my surprise to be the third and last leg of the 213 years bull run.
But this thread is not about calling tops, which many found to be tricky and sometimes painful.
The market will eventually turn (yes, this could happen). It could be now or next year, but this bull will eventually die.
This thread is about trying to figure what will happen AFTER the turning point.
1. The anatomy of the bear-
Will it be a quick '87 crash or a prolonged bear like the Tokyo `90s ?
2. The repercussions-
IMO a 25% drop in the main indices can be a major blow to the economy at large.
When people will stop counting (and counting on) paper profits, and will start mourning over paper losses, then consumer confidence will drop sharply, and during times of record debt this could bring very harmful results. Can a 25% correction snow ball into the Millennium Crash or is the economy strong enough to carry that burden?
Please look at usastores.com
(Thanks to Michael Dymond)
Opinions are welcome, and those who'll call me a party pooper please elaborate.
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