We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends
The Millennium Crash
An SI Board Since July 1997
Posts SubjectMarks Bans
5676 67 0
Emcee:  Arik T.G. Type:  Unmoderated
It is agreed that stock prices are high. Some say justifiably so, others say we're in the tulip bulb stage of prolonged irrational exuberance.

It is also agreed that the economy is in great shape. Some say it's a new era, others say that the #s looked great in the late 1920s too, and history has its lessons .

IMO these are the last days of the third and last leg of the three years bull run, which in itself is the third and last leg of the 15 years bull run, which I found to my surprise to be the third and last leg of the 213 years bull run.
But this thread is not about calling tops, which many found to be tricky and sometimes painful.
The market will eventually turn (yes, this could happen). It could be now or next year, but this bull will eventually die.

This thread is about trying to figure what will happen AFTER the turning point.

1. The anatomy of the bear-
Will it be a quick '87 crash or a prolonged bear like the Tokyo `90s ?
2. The repercussions-
IMO a 25% drop in the main indices can be a major blow to the economy at large.
When people will stop counting (and counting on) paper profits, and will start mourning over paper losses, then consumer confidence will drop sharply, and during times of record debt this could bring very harmful results. Can a 25% correction snow ball into the Millennium Crash or is the economy strong enough to carry that burden?

Please look at
(Thanks to Michael Dymond)

Opinions are welcome, and those who'll call me a party pooper please elaborate.

Previous 25 | Next 25 | View Recent | Post Message
Go to reply# or date (mm/dd/yy):
ReplyMessage PreviewFromRecsPosted
5676I could see lights out kind of crash for US stocks in which they never recover tReal Man-11/3/2022
5675META is a great short, even here. Zuckerberg is running META into the ground witRarebird-11/3/2022
5674The FAANG tech leaders made new 52w lows, with the exception of Apple as of YestReal Man-11/3/2022
5673Only 33% bearish in a bear market: What an ideal set up, sentiment wiRarebird-11/3/2022
5672By the time Powell is finished raising rates, the economy will be in deep do do Rarebird-11/3/2022
5671Yeah, Powell said he won’t do it every time the market expected him to do it incReal Man-11/3/2022
5670The real Bear has even started yet. But it is coming a lot sooner than most thinRarebird-11/2/2022
5669This guy did some awesome research and came up with his top zombie companies. I Grandk-1/5/2019
5668Yeah, this could be finally the time when all bubbles go to Hell and dipsters geReal Man-12/10/2018
5667Yum Yum. An inverted yield curve means it's FAZ time.Rarebird-12/10/2018
5666Yes. Ride the dark side until the Fed wises up. Not liking this market managemenReal Man-12/10/2018
5665I can easily see the S&P falling 200 points from current levels short term bRarebird-12/10/2018
5664Yes, stocks look ugly. Monday should tell the taleReal Man-12/8/2018
5663Next 2-3 days should prove quite interesting. I am not one for talking about craRarebird-12/8/2018
5662I'm all in, long and enjoying I can. Let the worriers worry for Zincman-8/28/2018
5661True.Real Man-8/27/2018
5660you have a lot of company with nose bleeds and fear of wonder onlda_cheif™-8/23/2018
5659We'll see how expensive after it drops. So far the bull continues. I expect Real Man-8/23/2018
5658"just got quite expensive lately because all liquidity:" REALLY? da_cheif™-8/23/2018
5657I am a Fed follower. This approach did well for me over years. I would not shortReal Man-8/23/2018
5656Nice on gold cheif. So, is it gonna go up? -g-Real Man-8/23/2018
5655They started big injections of money before sp500 bottom, as I remember. That waReal Man-8/23/2018
5654Yes, it appears now is the time to scale into gold miners, which is what I am doReal Man-8/23/2018
5653I am making money in the bond market, where I stay invested for now, just less tReal Man-8/23/2018
5652I am sure you have a very nice service where the " big boys" pay 10K aRarebird-8/23/2018
Previous 25 | Next 25 | View Recent | Post Message
Go to reply# or date (mm/dd/yy):