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Strategies & Market Trends
The Millennium Crash

An SI Board Since July 1997

Posts	SubjectMarks	Bans
5676	67	0

Emcee: Arik T.G.	Type: Unmoderated

Introduction Compact

It is agreed that stock prices are high. Some say justifiably so, others say we're in the tulip bulb stage of prolonged irrational exuberance.

It is also agreed that the economy is in great shape. Some say it's a new era, others say that the #s looked great in the late 1920s too, and history has its lessons .

IMO these are the last days of the third and last leg of the three years bull run, which in itself is the third and last leg of the 15 years bull run, which I found to my surprise to be the third and last leg of the 213 years bull run.
But this thread is not about calling tops, which many found to be tricky and sometimes painful.
The market will eventually turn (yes, this could happen). It could be now or next year, but this bull will eventually die.

This thread is about trying to figure what will happen AFTER the turning point.

1. The anatomy of the bear-
Will it be a quick '87 crash or a prolonged bear like the Tokyo `90s ?
2. The repercussions-
IMO a 25% drop in the main indices can be a major blow to the economy at large.
When people will stop counting (and counting on) paper profits, and will start mourning over paper losses, then consumer confidence will drop sharply, and during times of record debt this could bring very harmful results. Can a 25% correction snow ball into the Millennium Crash or is the economy strong enough to carry that burden?

Please look at usastores.com
(Thanks to Michael Dymond)

Opinions are welcome, and those who'll call me a party pooper please elaborate.

Arik.

Go to reply# or date (mm/dd/yy):

Reply	Message Preview	From	Recs	Posted
5676	I could see lights out kind of crash for US stocks in which they never recover t	Real Man	-	11/3/2022
5675	META is a great short, even here. Zuckerberg is running META into the ground wit	Rarebird	-	11/3/2022
5674	The FAANG tech leaders made new 52w lows, with the exception of Apple as of Yest	Real Man	-	11/3/2022
5673	Only 33% bearish in a bear market: aaii.com What an ideal set up, sentiment wi	Rarebird	-	11/3/2022
5672	By the time Powell is finished raising rates, the economy will be in deep do do	Rarebird	-	11/3/2022
5671	Yeah, Powell said he won’t do it every time the market expected him to do it inc	Real Man	-	11/3/2022
5670	The real Bear has even started yet. But it is coming a lot sooner than most thin	Rarebird	-	11/2/2022
5669	This guy did some awesome research and came up with his top zombie companies. I	Grandk	-	1/5/2019
5668	Yeah, this could be finally the time when all bubbles go to Hell and dipsters ge	Real Man	-	12/10/2018
5667	Yum Yum. An inverted yield curve means it's FAZ time.	Rarebird	-	12/10/2018
5666	Yes. Ride the dark side until the Fed wises up. Not liking this market managemen	Real Man	-	12/10/2018
5665	I can easily see the S&P falling 200 points from current levels short term b	Rarebird	-	12/10/2018
5664	Yes, stocks look ugly. Monday should tell the tale	Real Man	-	12/8/2018
5663	Next 2-3 days should prove quite interesting. I am not one for talking about cra	Rarebird	-	12/8/2018
5662	I'm all in, long and enjoying life...best I can. Let the worriers worry for	Zincman	-	8/28/2018
5661	True.	Real Man	-	8/27/2018
5660	you have a lot of company with nose bleeds and fear of heights.....no wonder onl	da_cheif™	-	8/23/2018
5659	We'll see how expensive after it drops. So far the bull continues. I expect	Real Man	-	8/23/2018
5658	"just got quite expensive lately because all liquidity:" REALLY?	da_cheif™	-	8/23/2018
5657	I am a Fed follower. This approach did well for me over years. I would not short	Real Man	-	8/23/2018
5656	Nice on gold cheif. So, is it gonna go up? -g-	Real Man	-	8/23/2018
5655	They started big injections of money before sp500 bottom, as I remember. That wa	Real Man	-	8/23/2018
5654	Yes, it appears now is the time to scale into gold miners, which is what I am do	Real Man	-	8/23/2018
5653	I am making money in the bond market, where I stay invested for now, just less t	Real Man	-	8/23/2018
5652	I am sure you have a very nice service where the " big boys" pay 10K a	Rarebird	-	8/23/2018

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