Silicon Investor - petal's market diary

[petal] [graphic]

petal — 4/25/2026 7:30:39 AM

[petal] Note to self about AI, jobs & future, and what AI (Gemini) thinks about it [gra...

petal — 4/25/2026 6:46:05 AM

Note to self about AI, jobs & future, and what AI (Gemini) thinks about it

So people will work less, more people will get rich from trading/investing – and life will probably get better in the long run.

That AI takes our jobs is a good thing, as long as we collectively get the fruits of its labor, and as long as we distribute those gains in a reasonable way.

Surely the utopia must we one were we don't work at all (unless we want to), not one where we work way too much and get burnout and chronic stress...

[petal] I may have spoken to soon... :'D #infamouslastwords

petal — 4/7/2026 7:36:08 PM

[petal] Seems as if I were right about the overreaction in the oil prices on 10 March, w...

petal — 4/7/2026 5:03:45 PM

Seems as if I were right about the overreaction in the oil prices on 10 March, when they went from a peak of $120 to a bottom around $85 in just one day. (Should have sold some at $120, though...)

Still owning my portfolio of Norwegian oil companies, and plan to do so for the foreseeable future. I Have most of my oil certificates left, too. I think that a 1970's scenario, where oil prices first tripled (in 1973) and then tripled again (in 1979) isn't all that unlikely. I think that people still underestimate the risks that this may be a Pandora's box type thing. Having an oil portfolio seems to me a decent hedge against my equity portfolio. (It has been thus far.)

I have rotated some cash into "ESG companies"/energy saving companies. E.g., NIBE, a company which does heat pumps (these can be used as air conditioner too). And Inwido, which makes windows and doors (the easiest way to get better insulation in your home). I figure consumers (and fund managers) will run that way in flight from higher oil/gas prices, much like they did during the inflation years 2022–23. The prices of these stocks haven't rallied (although they have done better than the mkt since the Iran attack on 25 February). I could see a new ESG bubble forming soon, and I want to front-run it.

[petal] Oil prices went from a peak of almost $120 early yesterday morning to a low arou...

petal — 3/10/2026 5:59:32 AM

Oil prices went from a peak of almost $120 early yesterday morning to a low around $85 that same night. Now remain around that level (slightly above). Seems like a huge overreaction to me? Prices are now "only" 30 % higher than before the attack. This doesn't seem like nearly enough to account for the rather massive risks that are still there. It is relatively hard to see a scenario where oil prices go back to where they were (or even drop below that level) any time soon. (Even though stranger things HAS happened – and recently, too: thinking about Trump's first "taco" with the tariffs in Apr '25. Market quickly regained what it lost there and way more.) I'm buying more oil here. We'll see how long I'll hold – am open to the strong possibility that I'm mossing something here, and that the market is in fact right in its judgment. (I'm not a commodity trader, or "macro guy", or an expert at anything at all, really... (Except possibly at sometimes saying/thinking "You are all wrong"))

[petal] The easy money in the oil price move has been made, but I will keep my position ...

petal — 3/8/2026 8:14:46 AM

The easy money in the oil price move has been made, but I will keep my position for a while. The upside is still large. And commodities tend to trend hard. Oil more than most, perhaps. Remember the 70's, when the prices tripled in a year. By the end of that decade, oil had 10x'd.

Downside still relatively low. shouldn't go down to pre-attack levels either.

Will keep most until the Hormuz strait opens up, or fighting stops. Even then, I will keep a part of my position. If oil falls back, I will scale up the position, as I believe oil prices will remain elevated going forward (as long as the world remains insecure and becomes more insecure rather than less secure).