Silicon Investor - 2023 Biotech Charity Contest

[technetium] There is no change in the results for the final standings, but my full sanity ch...

technetium — 1/5/2024 6:31:22 PM

There is no change in the results for the final standings, but my full sanity checks of the spread sheet values did catch something. It seems that effective the very last day of trading there had been a 1 for 240 (not a misprint) reverse split for AVTX that I had completely missed, which gave the erroneous results that AVTX was number one for the week, and its single holder the top portfolio for the week. I have corrected that now, so the tops for the week were JSPR and BLADERUNNER. Correctly figured, AVTX dropped from $13.40/share to $9.10/share rather than the stupendous rise from $0.056 to $9.10 that the uncorrected for the split numbers gave for the week. This also means that AVTX ended the worst stock for the year at -99.2%, returning less than a penny on the dollar.

At this point I want to say it’s been an interesting and educational year. I hope that everyone has enjoyed the contest and that my commentary and reports have provided some value to the game (and that my overly pedantic presentation hasn’t been too off putting).

So here is the corrected report. Some further commentary: ERIKOTTO owes the solidity of their first place finish (+$40k) to holding TWO top five stocks, INZY and CABA. But ALONER (2nd place) and STEVE LOKNESS (3rd) managed a strong +$21k return without picking dany of the super high fliers. RKRW in fourth, not too far behind at +$19k, did pick 3rd place for the year MOR that allowed them to shake off the loss from their pick of TCON.

There is also some details of the contest status after the regular report.

Report Time Ranges
					*From*	To
				Recent	12/22/2023	12/29/23
				YTD	12/31/2022	12/29/23
Index Portfolios’ Performance
				*Symbol*	*Recent P/L*	*Recent %*	*YTD P/L*
				^IXIC	$175.61	0.1%	$43,423.11
				^NBI	$1,871.45	1.8%	$3,737.21
				^SPSIBI	$1,885.55	1.8%	$7,627.64
Share Performance
*Recent Performance*						*YTD Performance*
	Top Five			Bottom Five			Top Five			Bottom 5
Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L/ Initial Price
JSPR		55.7%	DNTH		-18.8%	INZY		305.7%	AVTX		-99.2%
PSNL		32.1%	NAUT		-17.8%	STTK		210.0%	APTA.L		-97.6%
STTK		23.0%	OMER		-15.9%	MOR		176.5%	ACRS		-93.3%
EYEN		22.1%	INZY		-15.2%	LIAN		149.7%	RGTPQ		-92.3%
MOR		21.2%	CRIS		-9.4%	CABA		145.4%	TCON		-88.2%
Average and Median Portfolio Performance
	*Recent P/L*						*YTD P/L*
	Avg.	Median					Avg	Median
	$2,364.34	$1,633.02	ALONER				-$8,509.22	-$15,188.33	ARTHUR RADLEY
Top Seven Portfolio Performances
*Top Recent Performers*						*Top YTD Performers*
Contestant (Prev. Rank)			Recent P/L	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	YTD P/L (Rank)	Contestant (Prev. Rank)		YTD P/L	vs. Top Portfolio	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	Rec. P/L (Rank)
1 - BLADERUNNER (3)			$9,640.21	$7,754.66	$2,554.73 (6)	1 - ERIKOTTO (1)		$39,870.47	——	$32,242.83	$2,894.55 (4)
2 - ARTHUR RADLEY (9)			$5,437.61	$3,552.05	-$15,188.33 (8)	2 - ALONER (2)		$21,273.39	$18,597.08	$13,645.75	$1,633.02 (8)
3 - RKRW (11)			$4,754.13	$2,868.58	$19,290.81 (4)	3 - STEVE LOKNESS (3)		$21,070.07	$18,800.41	$13,442.42	$2,241.40 (6)
4 - ERIKOTTO (6)			$2,894.55	$1,008.99	$39,870.47 (1)	4 - RKRW (4)		$19,290.81	$20,579.66	$11,663.16	$4,754.13 (3)
5 - DEW DILIGENCE (14)			$2,778.58	$893.03	-$39,246.31 (14)	5 - A.J. MULLEN (5)		$7,094.79	$32,775.68	-$532.85	$588.95 (12)
6 - STEVE LOKNESS (2)			$2,241.40	$355.85	$21,070.07 (3)	6 - BLADERUNNER (7)		$2,554.73	$37,315.74	-$5,072.91	$9,640.21 (1)
7 - RAJU_BIJLEE (13)			$1,742.02	-$143.54	-$35,997.47 (13)	7 - JACK HARTMANN (6)		-$4,185.80	$44,056.27	-$11,813.44	$940.75 (11)
Top Portfolios’ Contents
*Top Recent Performance Portfolio (BLADERUNNER)*						*Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ERIKOTTO)*
Symbol (Rank)	Current Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L	Symbol (Rank)	Initial Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
CRDF	20.0%	20.6% \| 5.7%	$1,142.86	$142.86	4.7%	CABA	15.0%	26.3% \| 145.4%	$21,810.81	$908.11	2.7%
CRIS	15.0%	17.0% \| 15.9%	$2,386.36	-$1,404.55	5.8%	DAWN	10.0%	4.9% \| -32.2%	-$3,215.61	-$199.81	14.7%
ENTA	5.0%	1.0% \| -79.8%	-$3,988.61	$27.94	98.9%	FULC	10.0%	6.6% \| -7.3%	-$728.02	$645.60	10.8%
IOVA	10.0%	12.4% \| 27.2%	$2,723.00	-$328.64	7.9%	ICVX	5%	7.1% \| 98.5%	$4,924.43	$100.76	10.1%
JSPR	20.0%	31.9% \| 63.4%	$12,670.81	$11,138.72	3.1%	INZY	5%	14.5% \| 305.7%	$15,285.71	-$761.90	4.9%
MBIO	10.0%	2.2% \| -77.2%	-$7,721.52	$236.29	43.9%	LIFE	10.0%	4.6% \| -35.6%	-$3,561.64	$273.97	15.5%
DNTH	5.0%	9.2% \| 88.1%	$4,403.25	-$940.33	10.6%	OCUL	10.0%	11.3% \| 58.7%	$5,871.89	$1,138.79	6.3%
MRSN	15.0%	5.8% \| -60.4%	-$9,061.43	$767.92	16.8%	PDSB	10.0%	2.7% \| -62.3%	-$6,234.85	-$272.73	26.6%
						PRQR	10.0%	3.8% \| -46.5%	-$4,648.65	$216.22	18.7%
						URGN	15.0%	18.1% \| 69.1%	$10,366.40	$845.55	3.9%

The individual portfolios (ordered alphabetically) are summarized here. All prices are in converted US dollars. The Final Investment and Final # of shares is different from the initial for three portfolios because they had included a stock that was acquired during the contest and had the cash reinvested in the remainder of their selections. The Total Return of Capital for the acquired stocks, is the cash value of the acquisition.

Because there were four acquisitions during the year, three contestants reinvested their cash returned in their remaining selections. Thus their final investment and the final number of shares is different than the initial values.

Contestant	Stock Symbol	Initial Price	Final Price	Initial Allocation	Initial # Shares	Final Investment	Final # Shares	Total Return Capital	ROI
A.J. MULLEN	MRTX	$45.31	$58.75	$12,500.00	275.88			$16,207.79	29.7%
	NBIX	$119.44	$131.76	$12,500.00	104.66			$13,789.35	10.3%
	ONT.L	$2.97	$2.65	$12,500.00	4209.34			$11,158.88	-10.7%
	PACB	$8.18	$9.81	$12,500.00	1528.12			$14,990.83	19.9%
	SCLP.L	$0.30	$0.13	$12,500.00	41923.34			$5,604.94	-55.2%
	TDOC	$23.65	$21.55	$12,500.00	528.54			$11,390.06	-8.9%
	TWST	$23.81	$36.86	$12,500.00	524.99			$19,351.11	54.8%
	XENE	$39.43	$46.06	$12,500.00	317.02			$14,601.83	16.8%
ALONER	AFMD	$1.24	$0.63	$10,000.00	8064.52	$12,627.98	10984.50	$6,865.31	-45.6%
	CDTX	$0.76	$0.79	$10,000.00	13222.27	$12,627.98	15749.17	$12,504.84	-1.0%
	CLSD	$1.12	$1.17	$10,000.00	8928.57	$12,627.98	11505.03	$13,460.88	6.6%
	CRDF	$1.40	$1.48	$10,000.00	7142.86	$12,627.98	8883.24	$13,147.20	4.1%
	CRIS	$11.00	$12.75	$10,000.00	909.09	$12,627.98	1075.42	$13,711.59	8.6%
	CRVS	$0.85	$1.76	$10,000.00	11764.71	$12,627.98	14069.95	$24,763.12	96.1%
	DNTH	$5.53	$10.40	$10,000.00	1808.32	$12,627.98	2045.93	$21,277.67	68.5%
	KZIA	$0.61	$0.44	$10,000.00	16262.81	$12,627.98	18195.15	$7,996.77	-36.7%
	MRNA	$179.62	$99.45	$10,000.00	55.67	$12,627.98	75.88	$7,546.01	-40.2%
	PRVB	$10.57	$25.00	$10,000.00	946.07	$10,000.00	0.00	$23,651.84	136.5%
ARTHUR RADLEY	ABCM	$15.56	$23.99	$10,000.00	642.67	$12,075.87	728.88	$17,485.85	44.8%
	AKYA	$9.57	$4.88	$10,000.00	1044.93	$12,075.87	1330.08	$6,490.79	-46.2%
	ALVR	$5.13	$0.68	$10,000.00	1949.32	$12,075.87	2559.87	$1,740.20	-85.6%
	ASRT	$4.30	$1.07	$10,000.00	2325.58	$12,075.87	2731.03	$2,922.20	-75.8%
	EYEN	$1.63	$2.08	$20,000.00	12269.94	$24,151.75	14021.73	$29,165.20	20.8%
	IDIA.SW	$14.62	$2.51	$20,000.00	1368.32	$24,151.75	1942.02	$4,878.82	-79.8%
	ISEE	$21.41	$40.00	$10,000.00	467.07	$10,000.00	0.00	$18,682.86	86.8%
	LQDA	$6.37	$12.03	$10,000.00	1569.86	$12,075.87	1839.45	$22,128.62	83.2%
BLADERUNNER	CRDF	$1.40	$1.48	$20,000.00	14285.71			$21,142.86	5.7%
	CRIS	$11.00	$12.75	$15,000.00	1363.64			$17,386.36	15.9%
	DNTH	$5.53	$10.40	$5,000.00	904.16			$9,403.25	88.1%
	ENTA	$46.52	$9.41	$5,000.00	107.48			$1,011.39	-79.8%
	IOVA	$6.39	$8.13	$10,000.00	1564.95			$12,723.00	27.2%
	JSPR	$0.48	$0.79	$20,000.00	41407.87			$32,670.81	63.4%
	MBIO	$5.93	$1.35	$10,000.00	1687.76			$2,278.48	-77.2%
	MRSN	$5.86	$2.32

[Jack Hartmann] I donates to FoL via paypal. Congrats.

Jack Hartmann — 1/2/2024 11:48:28 AM

[Steve Lokness] That horse race technetium mentioned a few weeks ago turned out to be a race for...

Steve Lokness — 1/1/2024 10:32:39 PM

That horse race technetium mentioned a few weeks ago turned out to be a race for second. My horse came up lame! Congratulations to winner and special thanks to technetium for enduring the challenges of keeping up with a wacky group of stocks. Good luck to all investors for 2024! - Steve

[Bladerunner17] Thanks to Technetium for doing all the hard work in monitoring the Contest. Con...

Bladerunner17 — 1/1/2024 12:27:21 PM

Thanks to Technetium for doing all the hard work in monitoring the Contest.

Congrats to Erik Otto on winning the Contest.

A happy and healthy prosperous New Year to all.

Bladerunner

[Arthur Radley] Donation sent via PayPal--congratulations on the win--if I only had one more wee...

Arthur Radley — 12/31/2023 3:49:19 PM

Donation sent via PayPal--congratulations on the win--if I only had one more week, I was going to have the all-time rally in the history of this yearly contest. After that claim, just know that all my bankers and loan sharkers call me--Mr. Tomorrow!

[raju_bijlee] Congratulations to Erik! Donated to FLI - best wishes to all for the new year! ...

raju_bijlee — 12/31/2023 11:22:50 AM

Congratulations to Erik!
Donated to FLI - best wishes to all for the new year!

Raju_Bijlee

[A.J. Mullen] I paddled around the FLI website and came across Erik's name: Featured new ...

A.J. Mullen — 12/30/2023 8:43:41 PM

I paddled around the FLI website and came across Erik's name:

Featured new donor: Erik Otto

"We increasingly need effective institutions dedicated to mitigating catastrophic risks associated with our tightly connected, tech-driven world. The Future of Life Institute has been adept at enacting creative, cost-effective strategies to address these issues, and I am very happy to support their continued resolve."

I donate through my broker Charles Schwab. They had a Future of Life Institute with an address in MA, rather than PA. The EIN was given on by Schwab but I couldn't find the EIN on the FLI's website to check they were the same, so I donated to CAIS instead,. CAIS's address tallied with the one given by Schwab.

Giving to West End house in honor of Technetium was easy because I made the same donation last year.

Congratulations to Technetium for running a fun contest, and to Erik for winning it convincingly.

Ashley

[Arthur Radley] Supposedly this lawyer 'was' Cohen's good friend. I think I might contact Cohen'...

Arthur Radley — 12/30/2023 7:44:41 PM

Supposedly this lawyer 'was' Cohen's good friend. I think I might contact Cohen's former friend and give him the name and address of my friend of a friend that does more than 'knee capping'.

[technetium] I donated to CAIS. While AI is here to stay, it needs some oversight. ———— Garba...

technetium — 12/30/2023 3:25:32 PM

I donated to CAIS. While AI is here to stay, it needs some oversight.
————
Garbage In, Garbage Out is an old phrase we need to be reminded of when AI gives recommendations based on the same old, same old, when that includes inherent biases and mere ramblings scraped from the web.

I’m not sure why AI is known to “hallucinate” or invent citations for scientific papers or legal proceedings when it could just look it up in well known databases, but, of course, using the latter often means actually having to pay to access carefully curated data.

Making stuff up is much easier, especially when “what words are most likely to follow each other in response to this set of criteria” is the go to model of AI, including large language models, where “somebody somewhere said something like this” is the sole criterion for inclusion.
————
————
I’m not trying to bring politics into this thread, but Michael Cohen just irritated a judge because his lawyer used what Cohen gave him:

“Michael Cohen gave lawyer fraudulent case citations generated by AI”
thehill.com

Cohen argues that he is a non-lawyer, and expected that his (presumably well paid) lawyer would vet the citations before presenting them in legal filings. Oops.

[technetium] Apologies, RKRW, you were outvoted. Thank you for your continuous contributions...

technetium — 12/30/2023 2:11:26 PM

Apologies, RKRW, you were outvoted.

Thank you for your continuous contributions to the charity contest and ongoing insight.

[technetium] Arthur, tell your friend who knows a guy to chill. ;-)

technetium — 12/30/2023 1:40:37 PM

[BulbaMan] Just donated to West End House in honor of technetium. westendhouse.org And in ...

BulbaMan — 12/30/2023 1:32:29 PM

Just donated to West End House in honor of technetium.
westendhouse.org
And in honor of Erik, the 2023 Biotech Contest champ, just donated to the Future of Life Institute.
futureoflife.org
Happy 2024!
Peace & good health,
Bulba

[rkrw] I'd vote for a blend as suggested by technetium. Before 1/2 are all valid. If, a...

rkrw — 12/30/2023 11:22:13 AM

I'd vote for a blend as suggested by technetium. Before 1/2 are all valid. If, after, a pick with material news or an unusual jump is open to being nixed.

As a rule change, I also suggest nullifying any pick already being acquired, so no KRTX, MRTX, IMGN, etc. since it's gaming/outsmarting the 20% rule.

[technetium] The first day of the year it is! [graphic]

technetium — 12/30/2023 10:50:30 AM

The first day of the year it is!

[ErikOtto] I'd vote for first trading day of 2024 but can do either one. Erik

ErikOtto — 12/30/2023 8:52:40 AM

[A.J. Mullen] Who wants the contest to start on the first trading day of the year? That would...

A.J. Mullen — 12/30/2023 12:51:46 AM

Who wants the contest to start on the first trading day of the year?

That would be my preference if you're not inconvenienced, then Yahoo's YTD data will correspond with our picks.

Ashley

[Tomato] I vote for starting on the first trading day of the year.

Tomato — 12/29/2023 11:46:14 PM

[Arthur Radley] Many of us will be setting up our "stellar and awarding winning portfolios" over...

Arthur Radley — 12/29/2023 10:25:28 PM

Many of us will be setting up our "stellar and awarding winning portfolios" over the long weekend and having the closing prices of today will be built into our tracking method. However, with you doing all the heavy lifting it should be your choice for the starting date. (IMO)

PS: I have a friend who knows a guy, whose cousin has a neighbor who is a hit man, but don't let the issue of the starting date be a factor in your decision. If you really want to make me happy you could start it January 4th, as that is my birthday!

[BulbaMan] Hi technetium, I favor 1/1/24 midnight PST as the deadline for portfolio submiss...

BulbaMan — 12/29/2023 9:51:01 PM

Hi technetium,
I favor 1/1/24 midnight PST as the deadline for portfolio submissions and using the 12/29/23 prices as the initial stock prices.
Much appreciate your running the Contest for 2023 as well as the new 2024 Contest!
Best wishes to all for a 2024 full of many joyful moments!
Peace & good health,
Bulba

[DewDiligence_on_SI] ...I’m not sure what constitutes the majority of contestants…Being guided by the...

DewDiligence_on_SI — 12/29/2023 8:10:34 PM

...I’m not sure what constitutes the majority of contestants…

Being guided by the majority of participants who express an opinion seems reasonable.

[technetium] Who wants the contest to start on the first trading day of the year? I’d be wil...

technetium — 12/29/2023 7:32:28 PM

Who wants the contest to start on the first trading day of the year?

I’d be willing, but I’m not sure what constitutes the majority of contestants…

[DewDiligence_on_SI] Congratulations, Erik!

DewDiligence_on_SI — 12/29/2023 6:06:13 PM

[DewDiligence_on_SI] Submissions due Jan. 7, 2024, as I was late to start it.technetium, would you be...

DewDiligence_on_SI — 12/29/2023 6:03:27 PM

Submissions due Jan. 7, 2024, as I was late to start it.

technetium, would you be willing to reconsider this decision and have the 2024 contest start as usual on the first trading day of the year if the majority of participants support this? Participants would still have 3 full days from now to work out their portfolios.

I find a January 7 start awkward, particularly insofar as certain biotech companies typically release market-moving news during the first few days of January.

Whoever favors the above proposal, please acknowledge your support by recommending this post or replying to it.

Thanks in advance for your consideration of this proposal. Regards, Dew

[technetium] And the winner is, drumroll please: ERIK OTTO! (Unofficial) final report: Well...

technetium — 12/29/2023 5:31:21 PM

And the winner is, drumroll please: ERIK OTTO!

(Unofficial) final report:

Well here it is. The end of the contest.

Congratulations to ERIKOTTO’s first place finish with a portfolio value of $139,870.47! He was ahead of second place ALONER by $18,597.00. In fact this year six portfolios out of fifteen made it into the black. And the only change in the top seven rankings was BLADERUNNER scootching up to fifth place (and into the black) for the year, thanks to it being a good week for JSPR! (No surprise there I guess.)
It says “unofficial” because though althoug all the built in sanity checks in the spreadsheet are glowing “green”, I usually want to poke around looking at various individual calculations before I feel like saying “that’ll do spreadsheet” and let it range free.

Thanks again to everyone for taking part.

More commentary to follow.

Report Time Ranges
					*From*	To
				Recent	12/22/2023	12/29/23
				YTD	12/31/2022	12/29/23
Index Portfolios’ Performance
				*Symbol*	*Recent P/L*	*Recent %*	*YTD P/L*
				^IXIC	$175.61	0.1%	$43,423.11
				^NBI	$1,871.45	1.8%	$3,737.21
				^SPSIBI	$1,885.55	1.8%	$7,627.64
Share Performance
*Recent Performance*						*YTD Performance*
	Top Five			Bottom Five			Top Five			Bottom 5
Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L/ Initial Price
AVTX		179.4%	DNTH		-18.8%	INZY		305.7%	APTA.L		-97.6%
JSPR		55.7%	NAUT		-17.8%	STTK		210.0%	ACRS		-93.3%
PSNL		32.1%	OMER		-15.9%	MOR		176.5%	RGTPQ		-92.3%
STTK		23.0%	INZY		-15.2%	LIAN		149.7%	TCON		-88.2%
EYEN		22.1%	CRIS		-9.4%	CABA		145.4%	ALVR		-86.7%
Average and Median Portfolio Performance
	*Recent P/L*						*YTD P/L*
	Avg.	Median					Avg	Median
	$3,563.03	$1,742.02	RAJU_BIJLEE				-$7,310.53	-$15,188.33	ARTHUR RADLEY
Top Seven Portfolio Performances
*Top Recent Performers*						*Top YTD Performers*
Contestant (Prev. Rank)			Recent P/L	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	YTD P/L (Rank)	Contestant (Prev. Rank)		YTD P/L	vs. Top Portfolio	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	Rec. P/L (Rank)
1 - BMAZ001 (15)			$19,289.04	$17,403.48	-$21,445.44 (9)	1 - ERIKOTTO (1)		$39,870.47	——	$32,242.83	$2,894.55 (5)
2 - BLADERUNNER (3)			$9,640.21	$7,754.66	$2,554.73 (6)	2 - ALONER (2)		$21,273.39	$18,597.08	$13,645.75	$1,633.02 (9)
3 - ARTHUR RADLEY (9)			$5,437.61	$3,552.05	-$15,188.33 (8)	3 - STEVE LOKNESS (3)		$21,070.07	$18,800.41	$13,442.42	$2,241.40 (7)
4 - RKRW (11)			$4,754.13	$2,868.58	$19,290.81 (4)	4 - RKRW (4)		$19,290.81	$20,579.66	$11,663.16	$4,754.13 (4)
5 - ERIKOTTO (6)			$2,894.55	$1,008.99	$39,870.47 (1)	5 - A.J. MULLEN (5)		$7,094.79	$32,775.68	-$532.85	$588.95 (12)
6 - DEW DILIGENCE (14)			$2,778.58	$893.03	-$39,246.31 (15)	6 - BLADERUNNER (7)		$2,554.73	$37,315.74	-$5,072.91	$9,640.21 (2)
7 - STEVE LOKNESS (2)			$2,241.40	$355.85	$21,070.07 (3)	7 - JACK HARTMANN (6)		-$4,185.80	$44,056.27	-$11,813.44	$940.75 (11)
Top Portfolios’ Contents
*Top Recent Performance Portfolio (BMAZ001)*						*Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ERIKOTTO)*
Symbol (Rank)	Current Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L	Symbol (Rank)	Initial Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
AADI	10.0%	2.0% \| -84.2%	-$8,420.64	$39.09	63.3%	CABA	15.0%	26.3% \| 145.4%	$21,810.81	$908.11	2.7%
ACRS	10.0%	0.8% \| -93.3%	-$9,333.33	-$12.70	150.0%	DAWN	10.0%	4.9% \| -32.2%	-$3,215.61	-$199.81	14.7%
AVTX	10.0%	23.0% \| 80.6%	$8,055.56	$17,944.44	5.5%	FULC	10.0%	6.6% \| -7.3%	-$728.02	$645.60	10.8%
BCAB	10.0%	3.8% \| -70.2%	-$7,018.18	$278.79	33.5%	ICVX	5%	7.1% \| 98.5%	$4,924.43	$100.76	10.1%
ELYM	10.0%	9.4% \| -26.4%	-$2,643.05	$217.98	13.6%	INZY	5%	14.5% \| 305.7%	$15,285.71	-$761.90	4.9%
GTHX	10.0%	7.2% \| -43.8%	-$4,383.06	$128.91	17.8%	LIFE	10.0%	4.6% \| -35.6%	-$3,561.64	$273.97	15.5%
LIAN	10.0%	31.8% \| 149.7%	$14,972.07	-$167.60	4.0%	OCUL	10.0%	11.3% \| 58.7%	$5,871.89	$1,138.79	6.3%
LRMR	10.0%	14.0% \| 10.2%	$1,016.95	$653.75	9.1%	PDSB	10.0%	2.7% \| -62.3%	-$6,234.85	-$272.73	26.6%
PDSB	5.0%	2.4% \| -62.3%	-$3,117.42	-$136.36	53.1%	PRQR	10.0%	3.8% \| -46.5%	-$4,648.65	$216.22	18.7%
PIRS	10.0%	2.2% \| -82.5%	-$8,250.00	$234.62	57.1%	URGN	15.0%	18.1% \| 69.1%	$10,366.40	$845.55	3.9%
PRQR	5.0%	3.4% \| -46.5%	-$2,324.32	$108.11	37.4%

[ErikOtto] I just donated to West End House. Thanks again technetium.

ErikOtto — 12/29/2023 2:23:20 PM

[Arthur Radley] This request will not impact my final portfolio, as I haven't checked the number...

Arthur Radley — 12/29/2023 1:55:18 PM

This request will not impact my final portfolio, as I haven't checked the numbers as of late, but could Rule 10, give the contestants the option of keeping the merger funding in cash. I had the good fortune to have two of my stocks being bought out. The proceeds were then prorated into the remaining stocks in my portfolio (not the last one as the merger took place only a few weeks ago). But the first one was a cash deal and then the bottom fell out of my portfolio, and this added to my overall decline. I guess what I'm asking is for the onus of making the decision, let the contestant have some input for the option. Be assured--having two stocks bought out from my portfolio will not happen again!

Thanks for you taking the time and effort to run this long-time contest.

[technetium] I like the West End House: westendhouse.org Thank you and everyone for partici...

technetium — 12/29/2023 11:25:37 AM

I like the West End House:

westendhouse.org

Thank you and everyone for participating.

Happy New Year!

[ErikOtto] Charitable donation links: I can't tell if anyone else had major victories this...

ErikOtto — 12/28/2023 7:32:28 PM

Charitable donation links:

I can't tell if anyone else had major victories this week but as far as I can tell my portfolio hasn't experienced major mishaps. In the event that I remain in the lead tomorrow, I am posting my desired charities here.

The Center for AI Safety (CAIS) helps reduce societal-scale risks from artificial intelligence. For example, they were able to coordinate on an existential risk statement signed by the leaders of the major AI labs. This was one impetus to begin regulatory policy discussions. You can access the donation link here:
safe.ai

If for some reason you don't want to donate to the CAIS, the Future of Life Institute focuses on broader societal threats (including nuclear, pandemics etc...). You can donate at the link below, but only by check or PayPal.
futureoflife.org

These are both tax deductible in the US.

Sincere thanks for your donations! Technetium - please let us know who you would like us to donate to on your behalf as well. Thanks again for running the contest!

Good luck in 2024 everyone!

Erik Otto

[technetium] The 2024 Charity Contest! Subject 60377 Submissions due Jan. 7, 2024, as I was...

technetium — 12/28/2023 6:08:05 PM

The 2024 Charity Contest!

Subject 60377

Submissions due Jan. 7, 2024, as I was late to start it.

[technetium] Today or tomorrow.

technetium — 12/26/2023 10:27:58 AM

[Arthur Radley] When can we expect the new board being up--so I can have another stellar year--N...

Arthur Radley — 12/25/2023 10:31:24 PM

When can we expect the new board being up--so I can have another stellar year--NOT!

[A.J. Mullen] As the person who hadn't paid attention to fact that you had reported the % incr...

A.J. Mullen — 12/24/2023 5:43:25 PM

As the person who hadn't paid attention to fact that you had reported the % increase was the increase over the original price, I must apologize for my unnecessary question. Thank you, for both keeping the scores and for your excellent commentary.

Ashley

[technetium] Thank you!

technetium — 12/24/2023 1:05:27 PM

[ErikOtto] Thanks so much technetium for running the contest. Your efforts are much appreci...

ErikOtto — 12/24/2023 12:01:53 PM

Thanks so much technetium for running the contest. Your efforts are much appreciated! It really is a great way to learn from the market and it forces you to focus on company fundamentals. I will see if I can recruit some more participants for 2024 this week.

The adage"It's not over until it's over" has been quite true for this year in general and with the extreme moves we've seen in recent weeks it's way too early to declare victory. If it's looking good around Thursday I will post my desired charity.

Also thanks to all who participate. I enjoy the intermittent commentary and every year I find it interesting to look through peoples picks, trying to find diamonds on the rough.

Happy holidays everyone!

[technetium] A few weeks ago a contestant raised what they considered to be a serious error i...

technetium — 12/24/2023 11:21:50 AM

A few weeks ago a contestant raised what they considered to be a serious error in the reports. They did not say (but probably thought) that if something like this is in the weekly output report, does it mean that we should be skeptical of the announced winners at the end of the contest?

I think in this case, it’s a matter of a misunderstanding of what the report was saying, rather than an error in the spreadsheet. (And I think the accuracy of the final results will be pretty good.)

To be specific, a contestant noticed that the XYZ stock company had finished the last week at $10 / share, and the end of the current week it was $11. The percentage change of XYZ for the week is pretty easy to calculate: (11 - 10) / 10 = 10%, which is how any stock table in a newspaper would record percentage change in any value. A 10% gain in not to be sneezed at, but is unlikely to garner attention. But the report actually calculated that it was a top performer for the week with a reported 20% change, enough to land it in the top 5 discussion. How could this possibly be right? If you could look at another stock, the ABC company who went from $1 to $1.1, which is an equally big percentage change of (1.1 - 1)/1 of 10%. But unless they asked about ABC specifically, they are unlikely to see what the percentage calculation used by the report would say. In this case the report writer figures that ABC is a 2% increase, and almost certainly not going to make the top five winners for the week and be reported on.

What’s going on is that the report % change is always the change in a stock as a percentage of THE ORIGINAL PRICE at the start of the contest. It turns out that both ABC and XYZ happened to start at $5 a share and had a very divergent history.

Just why this method is used now was discussed at some length in the middle of last year’s contest. We had been using the “newspaper” percentage change calculation to rate individual stock performance. Week after week the “winners” list selected stocks that had lost a lot of value, in one case only a few tenths of a percent of their original price. This stock could often have a huge newspaper percentage change, but they couldn’t possibly make that much of a difference to our contest, as they amounted to a small amount of actual cash.

What matters in how much money a particular price change made (or lost) for the portfolios. That is NSHARES * (THISWEEK - LASTWEEK), which varies depending on how many shares a portfolio bought in the original allocation at the start of the contest. If you want to make that a portfolio independent percentage, replace NSHARES with ALLOCATIONFRACTION / ORIGINAL PRICE, and take out the portfolio dependent part (the allocation fraction) which is (THIS WEEK - LAST WEEK) / ORIGINAL PRICE. That means that you could safely ignore a stock that has lost a tremendous amount of value since the start of contest that doubles in price, or worry about missing the move in a stock of adding 50% of its original price to a stock that had tripled in price since the contest start, which would only increase by the less imposing 12.5% using the newspaper “percentage”.

I have tried to in each report at least once when discussing the percentage change in a stock price to say that the number is the change in price compared to the original price, or price at the start of the contest or some such. However, it is not at all unreasonable for anyone to just pass over these words and assume that the percentages were the more “obvious” calculation. Next year I intend to have a column that gives both kinds of percentages, though selecting the big movers only using the percent change against the original price. This might cause some initial confusion, but it would be educational to see how the two numbers varied.

[technetium] Ah yes, coming down to the wire now. Only four (or three +) trading days left ...

technetium — 12/24/2023 11:18:40 AM

Ah yes, coming down to the wire now. Only four (or three +) trading days left in the contest.

Another decent week for the general markets (+1.2%), and even better for the biotech indices, though not as flashy as last week. Both biotech composite indices are now in the black for the YTD, not by lot but it’s certainly better than the red ink they were spilling during much of the second half of the year

Roughly three quarters of the stocks chosen by one or more portfolios showed a profit over last week. DNTH was the top performing stock last week (+76% of their price at the start of the contest.), good news for all three portfolios with a position in it, though a lot of this weeks advance was erasing the loss posted the previous week (-41%). Not a lot to explain about either effect. For what it’s worth, a significant fraction of the week’s gain took place in the last hour of trading for the week when much of the market tanked on relatively thin volume.

Second place LQDA (+68%) had almost too much news for the week: On Tuesday the Chief Medical Officer sold fifteen thousand shares, generating roughly $160k. On Wednesday, a US Federal Court Of Appeals affirmed a prior Patent office decision that LQDA had uncontested ownership of IP for a drug they will now submit to the FDA for immediate approval. On Thursday the Independent Director picked up $2M more stock, and on Friday several analysts upgraded their expected increase in revenues. Third place INZY for the week Added +38%, cementing their hold on the top spot for the YTD performance, now +320%. This week’s big loser was ALVR (-31% of the starting price). They provided some updates on a phase 3 clinical development program Friday morning and ALVR tanked going from $2.30/share on market close on Thursday to $0.76/share first thing Friday. So now ALVR is the 5th worst YTD performer (-85%). MOR was off -16% for the week, which wasn’t enough to disturb its third place position in the YTD ranks.

So on this penultimate report, it is nice to say that this week, EVERY portfolio was in the black for the week. The portfolio average gained $6.7k. When we get down to specifics, ALONER took the prize for the week, earning +$17.6k, roughly half of which was due to holding the top performing stock DNTH, but it didn’t hurt that all of their other picks were in the black for the week. ALONER went from second to fourth the previous report, changing places with RKRW, and in this week both ALONER and RKRW go pack to the positions they occupied two weeks ago, second and fourth YTD. Second place for the week, STEVE LOKNESS (+$12.8k), another investor in DNTH, kept his third place in the YTD standings. But ERIKOTTO, only sixth place return for the week, +$6k, still enough to keep ALONER from overtaking them to grab the top spot. ALONER is now $17k behind ERIKOTTO. A daunting but not impossible gap to cover in the final days of the contest.

Don’t forget to get your portfolios in as emails to libel-amalgam0b@icloud.com. See “The 2024 Contest simplified” for the format and other considerations.

Report Time Ranges
					*From*	To
				Recent	12/15/2023	12/22/2023
				YTD	12/31/2022	12/22/2023
Index Portfolios’ Performance
				*Symbol*	*Recent P/L*	*Recent %*	*YTD P/L*
				^IXIC	$1,710.73	1.2%	$43,247.51
				^NBI	$1,826.94	1.8%	$1,865.76
				^SPSIBI	$2,376.13	2.3%	$5,742.09
Share Performance
*Recent Performance*						*YTD Performance*
	Top Five			Bottom Five			Top Five			Bottom 5
Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L/ Initial Price
DNTH		76.1%	ALVR		-31.3%	INZY		321.0%	AVTX		-98.9%
LQDA		67.8%	MOR		-16.2%	STTK		187.0%	APTA.L		-97.6%
INZY		38.1%	TGTX		-12.5%	MOR		155.3%	ACRS		-93.2%
OMER		35.0%	HUMA		-10.0%	LIAN		151.4%	TCON		-87.9%
DCTH		22.8%	QURE		-8.6%	CABA		139.4%	ALVR		-85.1%
Average and Median Portfolio Performance
	*Recent P/L*						*YTD P/L*
	Avg.	Median					Avg	Median
	$5,708.13	$3,839.33	TOMATO				-$10,873.56	-$20,625.93	ARTHUR RADLEY
Top Seven Portfolio Performances
*Top Recent Performers*						*Top YTD Performers*
Contestant (Prev. Rank)			Recent P/L	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	YTD P/L (Rank)	Contestant (Prev. Rank)		YTD P/L	vs. Top Portfolio	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	Rec. P/L (Rank)
1 - ALONER (15)			$17,573.66	$15,197.53	$19,640.38 (2)	1 - ERIKOTTO (1)		$36,975.92	——	$31,233.84	$6,007.05 (6)
2 - STEVE LOKNESS (11)			$12,760.24	$10,384.11	$18,828.66 (3)	2 - ALONER (4)		$19,640.38	$17,335.55	$13,898.29	$17,573.66 (1)
3 - BLADERUNNER (14)			$10,193.17	$7,817.03	-$7,085.49 (7)	3 - STEVE LOKNESS (3)		$18,828.66	$18,147.26	$13,086.57	$12,760.24 (2)
4 - GENEGURU (8)			$9,045.43	$6,669.30	-$26,243.77 (10)	4 - RKRW (2)		$14,536.68	$22,439.25	$8,794.59	$2,172.73 (11)
5 - BULBAMAN (7)			$7,103.79	$4,727.66	-$25,460.77 (9)	5 - A.J. MULLEN (5)		$6,505.84	$30,470.08	$763.75	$5,480.57 (7)
6 - ERIKOTTO (3)			$6,007.05	$3,630.92	$36,975.92 (1)	6 - JACK HARTMANN (6)		-$5,126.55	$42,102.47	-$10,868.63	$2,197.33 (10)
7 - A.J. MULLEN (4)			$5,480.57	$3,104.44	$6,505.84 (5)	7 - BLADERUNNER (7)		-$7,085.49	$44,061.41	-$12,827.57	$10,193.17 (3)
Top Portfolios’ Contents
*Top Recent Performance Portfolio (ALONER)*						*Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ERIKOTTO)*
Symbol (Rank)	Current Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L	Symbol (Rank)	Initial Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
AFMD	11.1%	4.1% \| -61.1%	-$7,714.62	$666.76	20.4%	CABA	15.0%	26.2% \| 139.4%	$20,902.70	$2,578.38	2.8%
CDTX	11.1%	10.8% \| 2.3%	$286.34	$1,645.79	7.7%	DAWN	10.0%	5.1% \| -30.2%	-$3,015.80	$357.81	14.3%
CLSD	11.1%	10.0% \| -5.2%	-$662.76	$115.05	8.4%	FULC	10.0%	6.3% \| -13.7%	-$1,373.63	$1,222.53	11.6%
CRDF	11.1%	10.9% \| 3.4%	$430.38	$621.83	7.7%	ICVX	5%	7.2% \| 96.5%	$4,823.68	-$50.38	10.2%
CRIS	11.1%	12.4% \| 17.4%	$2,191.29	$2,677.79	6.7%	INZY	5%	15.4% \| 321.0%	$16,047.62	$1,904.76	4.8%
CRVS	11.1%	20.0% \| 89.4%	$11,290.94	$2,391.89	4.2%	LIFE	10.0%	4.5% \| -38.4%	-$3,835.62	$593.61	16.2%
KZIA	11.1%	6.2% \| -41.0%	-$5,182.53	$167.40	13.4%	OCUL	10.0%	10.8% \| 47.3%	$4,733.10	$747.33	6.8%
DNTH	11.1%	19.6% \| 85.3%	$10,777.45	$8,613.36	4.3%	PDSB	10.0%	2.9% \| -59.6%	-$5,962.12	$174.24	24.8%
MRNA	11.1%	6.0% \| -43.0%	-$5,427.97	$673.79	13.9%	PRQR	10.0%	3.7% \| -48.6%	-$4,864.86	-$675.68	19.5%
PRVB	0.0%	0.0% \| 136.5%	$13,651.84	$0.00	----	URGN	15.0%	17.9% \| 63.5%	$9,520.86	-$845.55	4.1%

[technetium] Well, if the rising tide doesn’t float your boat, there’s always this song: Wel...

technetium — 12/18/2023 11:39:54 AM

Well, if the rising tide doesn’t float your boat, there’s always this song:

Well it's not far down to paradise, at least's not for me
If the wind is right you can sail away and find tranquility
Oh, the canvas can do miracles, just you wait and see, believe me
It's not far to never, never land, reason to pretend

And if the wind is right you can find the joy of innocence again
Oh, the canvas can do miracles, just you wait and see, believe me

Sailing takes me away
To where I've always heard it could be

youtube.com

[technetium] Here is this week’s report on the Biotech Values Charity Stock Picking Contest....

technetium — 12/18/2023 11:32:58 AM

Here is this week’s report on the Biotech Values Charity Stock Picking Contest. And what a week it was. Only two more reports before we call it a wrap for 2023. And if they are anything like this week’s, it’s going to be exciting.

Given all the swooning from the latest Fed interest rate news, a 2.8% improvement in the NASDAQ composite might not be unexpected. But the biotech indices greatly exceeded that, massively, 6% for the NASDAQ biotechs, 8.1%(!) for the S&P biotechs.

And we can see the evidence also in the stocks covered by one or more contest portfolios, where the average stock was up +6.8%. although about a third still managed to spend the week in the red. Considering the portfolios, the week gave a +$5k bump to the median portfolio. Only two portfolios were in the red last week. Alas, the portfolios’ YTD performance has a lot of ground to cover to profitability, with the median YTD portfolio a -$24k loss.

At the top of this week’s top stocks list is STTK (+180% of its price at the start of the contest) which catapulted it into second place in the YTD standings (+190%). The reason seems to be the release on Thursday of a press release stating that “positive Initial Topline data” in a phase 1 study. MOR was second for the week with a none too shabby +75%, popping its YTD performance from fifth to third. They also had good news, on Monday, on “comprehensive results for the Phase 3” study. And third place ICVX was not far behind, +$65%, just because Zacks (must be an analyst that people pay attention to) upgraded their advice to Buy, also on Tuesday. Even fourth place CABA turned in +$47k, which would have been the top performer for many of the weeks this year. They managed that just by saying they planned to attend a conference. PRVB dropped from 2nd to 4th place YTD, and LIAN dropped from 3rd to 5th.

Changing the focus to the portfolios, all but two were in the black for this week. And we have increased the count of profitable portfolios YTD to five, though the hold on this status by the last three is somewhat tenuous. One indicator that this would be a very good week for SOME of the portfolios: Last week’s range in the portfolio returns for the top 7 was from +$3.3k to +$5.9k, recognized as a very good performance, while for this week that range is $5.5k to $22k.

The best portfolio for the week was JACK HARTMANN, up +$22k, thanks to their foresight in putting up $10k for STTK. This took them from their status as the YTD median portfolio last week to sixth place in the YTD standings, pushing BLADERUNNER down to seventh. RKRW was second for the week (+$16k), in their case making good use of their MOR holdings, but they had a number of other quite good if not spectacular picks. Second for the week was enough to move him up to 2nd YTD from fourth, changing places with ALONER, held back because their holding positions in both CRVS and DNTH. Third place for the week was ERIK OTTO (+$16k, INZY being his winner for the week). This was good enough to keep them in the YTD first place position (+$31k). In fact with a $19k gap between them and second place, they might even have locked this down for the year. A.J. MULLEN and STEVE LOCKNESS kept their third and fifth place in the YTD standings

There are a number of subsidiary postings this week of interest for participants in next year’s contest. But this one is far from over.

Report Time Ranges
					*From*	To
				Recent	12/8/23	12/15/2023
				YTD	12/31/2022	12/15/2023
Index Portfolios’ Performance
				*Symbol*	*Recent P/L*	*Recent %*	*YTD P/L*
				^IXIC	$3,916.76	2.8%	$41,536.78
				^NBI	$5,703.07	6.0%	$38.82
				^SPSIBI	$7,729.01	8.1%	$3,365.96
Share Performance
*Recent Performance*						*YTD Performance*
	Top Five			Bottom Five			Top Five			Bottom 5
Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L/ Initial Price
STTK		184.3%	CRVS		-45.9%	INZY		282.9%	AVTX		-98.8%
MOR		74.6%	DNTH		-41.0%	STTK		187.4%	APTA.L		-97.5%
ICVX		65.1%	AADI		-20.5%	MOR		171.5%	ACRS		-93.6%
CABA		46.7%	LLY		-7.1%	PRVB		136.5%	RGTPQ		-87.8%
KALV		37.3%	JSPR		-5.4%	LIAN		135.2%	TCON		-87.4%
Average and Median Portfolio Performance
	*Recent P/L*						*YTD P/L*
	Avg.	Median					Avg	Median
	$5,305.65	$4,989.81	GENEGURU				-$16,581.69	-$23,912.12	ARTHUR RADLEY
Top Seven Portfolio Performances
*Top Recent Performers*						*Top YTD Performers*
Contestant (Prev. Rank)			Recent P/L	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	YTD P/L (Rank)	Contestant (Prev. Rank)		YTD P/L	vs. Top Portfolio	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	Rec. P/L (Rank)
1 - JACK HARTMANN (5)			$21,695.33	$13,966.32	-$7,323.88 (6)	1 - ERIKOTTO (1)		$30,968.87	——	$27,602.91	$15,610.55 (3)
2 - RKRW (4)			$16,107.02	$8,378.01	$12,363.94 (2)	2 - RKRW (4)		$12,363.94	$18,604.92	$8,997.99	$16,107.02 (2)
3 - ERIKOTTO (1)			$15,610.55	$7,881.54	$30,968.87 (1)	3 - STEVE LOKNESS (3)		$6,068.42	$24,900.45	$2,702.46	$720.13 (11)
4 - A.J. MULLEN (12)			$8,271.70	$542.70	$1,025.27 (5)	4 - ALONER (2)		$2,066.72	$28,902.15	-$1,299.24	-$10,516.42 (15)
5 - RAJU_BIJLEE (8)			$6,383.25	-$1,345.76	-$39,164.95 (13)	5 - A.J. MULLEN (5)		$1,025.27	$29,943.60	-$2,340.69	$8,271.70 (4)
6 - TOMATO (3)			$5,998.04	-$1,730.97	-$30,969.73 (10)	6 - JACK HARTMANN (8)		-$7,323.88	$38,292.75	-$10,689.83	$21,695.33 (1)
7 - BULBAMAN (6)			$5,531.10	-$2,197.91	-$32,564.56 (11)	7 - BLADERUNNER (6)		-$17,278.65	$48,247.52	-$20,644.61	-$143.59 (14)
Top Portfolios’ Contents
*Top Recent Performance Portfolio (JACK HARTMANN)*						*Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ERIKOTTO)*
Symbol (Rank)	Current Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L	Symbol (Rank)	Initial Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
AMRN	10.0%	7.4% \| -31.4%	-$3,140.50	-$219.83	14.6%	CABA	15.0%	25.4% \| 122.2%	$18,324.32	$7,005.41	3.0%
GMDA	10.0%	2.6% \| -75.5%	-$7,554.26	-$34.88	40.9%	DAWN	10.0%	5.1% \| -33.7%	-$3,373.61	$924.72	15.1%
HUMA	10.0%	15.8% \| 46.4%	$4,644.55	$1,374.41	6.8%	FULC	10.0%	5.7% \| -26.0%	-$2,596.15	$604.40	13.5%
ICPT	10.0%	16.6% \| 53.6%	$5,359.74	$0.00	6.5%	ICVX	5%	7.5% \| 97.5%	$4,874.06	$3,255.67	10.1%
IOVA	10.0%	13.1% \| 21.8%	$2,175.27	$2,159.62	8.2%	INZY	5%	14.6% \| 282.9%	$14,142.86	$1,023.81	5.2%
LYEL	10.0%	6.0% \| -44.7%	-$4,466.86	$0.00	18.1%	LIFE	10.0%	4.3% \| -44.3%	-$4,429.22	$91.32	18.0%
NGM	10.0%	1.6% \| -85.1%	-$8,505.98	-$215.54	66.9%	OCUL	10.0%	10.7% \| 39.9%	$3,985.77	$1,103.20	7.2%
PDSB	10.0%	4.2% \| -61.4%	-$6,136.36	-$37.88	25.9%	PDSB	10.0%	3.0% \| -61.4%	-$6,136.36	-$37.88	25.9%
RBOT	10.0%	1.7% \| -84.4%	-$8,438.61	$234.65	64.0%	PRQR	10.0%	4.4% \| -41.9%	-$4,189.19	$405.41	17.2%
STTK	10.0%	31.0% \| 187.4%	$18,739.13	$18,434.78	3.5%	URGN	15.0%	19.4% \| 69.1%	$10,366.40	$1,234.50	3.9%

[A.J. Mullen] The week after RKRW dethroned me from being King of the Losers, my calculations ...

A.J. Mullen — 12/16/2023 3:01:41 PM

The week after RKRW dethroned me from being King of the Losers, my calculations put me in the black for the year. I think that's for the first time this year. My guess is that last week was a tide that raised most boats, but I'm now less worried about ranking. Having sunk deep, I'll be very happy if I can stay in the black for the next couple of weeks.

[technetium] As the year draws to a close, the reports seem to be falling into a pattern: po...

technetium — 12/12/2023 12:12:08 PM

As the year draws to a close, the reports seem to be falling into a pattern: positive weeks for the NASDAQ composite, biotech indices generally outperforming the general market, net improvement in the contest portfolios measured either by the average or median performance, +80% of the portfolios in the black for the week (though only three in the black YTD), AND a change in the identity of the first place YTD portfolio. So let’s run the video tape for the specific highlights.

The top stock for the week, VKTX +58% (of its original price at the contest start), which returned it to YTD profitable status. The reason for the good performance was according to Motley Fool, a knock-on effect of other news; (1)Roche signing a deal earlier this week, to acquire Carmot Therapeutics for $2.7 billion in cash, plus $400 million in milestone payments; (2) Carmot was acquired with a significant premium because it is developing a drug targeting obesity, a hot thing right at the moment (e.g. Ozempic) (3) VKTX also has an obesity drug in the pipeline (recently enrolling patients for phase II studies) (4) The market has decided to pre-price in some sort of acquisition premium in VKTX when some other well-capitalized pharmaceutical views it an easy entry to the feeding frenzy. We’ll see if this holds up (for the next 3 weeks, at least).

In second place for the week: CRVS (+36%), most of it at Friday’s opening, perhaps due to precognitive investors who knew about the press release at noon on Saturday, talking up “New Interim Phase1/1b” results which are interpreted as providing treatment that exceeds the current standard of care. The release also discussed advanced plans for the phase 3 clinical trial. This performance returned CRVS to the YTD performance winners at fourth place (+130%), replacing DNTH which we mention later. The third place winner for the week was OCUL (+34%), enough to put it in the black for the year. Most of the gain occurred at the opening bell Monday, with no apparent reason.

DNTH was the big loser for the week (-32%), which dropped it from the top 5 YTD list.

The contest portfolios generally had a pretty good week, adding another $1.8k to the average portfolio, with twelve of the fifteen portfolios in the black. But with the YTD average performance of -$22k, it looks unlikely that there will be a lot of portfolios making a profit YTD this year.

The number one performing portfolio for the week was ERIKOTTO, +$5.9k, from holding OCUL and URGN. This allowed ERIKOTTO to move their YTD standing (+$15k) from 3rd to 1st, moving past last week’s 1st and 2nd place YTD of ALONER and STEVE LOKNESS, who both were in the red for the week. ERIKOTTO shouldn’t get too comfortable as ALONER is only $2.8k behind. ARTHUR RADLEY turned in the second place performance for the week, (+$5.7k), almost all of which was due to their holding of EYEN, the fourth place finisher for the week (+24%). ARTHUR RADLEY remains in seventh place YTD, but has closed the gap with sixth place BLADRUNNER by +$11k, so the they are within $7k of passing them. RKRW’s fourth place weekly return (+$4.9k) moved them past A.J. MULLEN to take fourth place YTD.

There is still plenty of opportunity for additional portfolios to end the year in the black.

I promised to lay out the contest rules, which I had intended to have after the spreadsheet report, as well as some discussion of possible tweaking of the rules. Oh, and a reply to A.J. MULLEN about how the spreadsheet calculates the “percent” gain or loss of a stock. It’s almost done, but I shouldn’t wait on the weekly report any more.

Report Time Ranges
					*From*	To
				Recent	12/2/23	12/8/23
				YTD	12/31/2022	12/8/23
Index Portfolios’ Performance
				*Symbol*	*Recent P/L*	*Recent %*	*YTD P/L*
				^IXIC	$945.31	0.7%	$37,620.02
				^NBI	$1,113.41	1.2%	-$5,664.25
				^SPSIBI	$1,760.36	1.9%	-$4,363.05
Share Performance
*Recent Performance*						*YTD Performance*
	Top Five			Bottom Five			Top Five			Bottom 5
Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L/ Initial Price
VKTX		58.2%	DNTH		-32.0%	INZY		262.4%	AVTX		-98.9%
CRVS		36.5%	JSPR		-23.8%	PRVB		136.5%	RGTPQ		-98.5%
OCUL		33.5%	ALGS		-12.7%	LIAN		129.6%	APTA.L		-97.4%
EYEN		23.9%	BLCM		-11.0%	CRVS		125.9%	ACRS		-93.6%
GTHX		21.0%	KALV		-9.8%	MOR		96.9%	TCON		-87.4%
Average and Median Portfolio Performance
	*Recent P/L*						*YTD P/L*
	Avg.	Median					Avg	Median
	$1,807.85	$2,306.24	RAJU_BIJLEE				-$21,887.34	-$29,019.21	JACK HARTMANN
Top Seven Portfolio Performances
*Top Recent Performers*						*Top YTD Performers*
Contestant (Prev. Rank)			Recent P/L	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	YTD P/L (Rank)	Contestant (Prev. Rank)		YTD P/L	vs. Top Portfolio	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	Rec. P/L (Rank)
1 - ERIKOTTO (15)			$5,858.74	$4,098.39	$15,358.32 (1)	1 - ERIKOTTO (3)		$15,358.32	——	$19,721.37	$5,858.74 (1)
2 - ARTHUR RADLEY (3)			$5,661.28	$3,900.92	-$24,135.77 (7)	2 - ALONER (1)		$12,583.13	$2,775.19	$16,946.19	-$429.51 (13)
3 - TOMATO (5)			$5,318.59	$3,558.23	-$36,967.77 (10)	3 - STEVE LOKNESS (2)		$5,348.29	$10,010.03	$9,711.34	-$5,911.66 (15)
4 - RKRW (1)			$4,877.56	$3,117.20	-$3,743.08 (4)	4 - RKRW (5)		-$3,743.08	$19,101.40	$619.97	$4,877.56 (4)
5 - JACK HARTMANN (14)			$3,508.04	$1,747.68	-$29,019.21 (8)	5 - A.J. MULLEN (4)		-$7,246.44	$22,604.76	-$2,883.39	$195.22 (12)
6 - BULBAMAN (6)			$3,365.80	$1,605.44	-$38,095.65 (11)	6 - BLADERUNNER (6)		-$17,135.06	$32,493.38	-$12,772.01	-$5,508.73 (14)
7 - TECHNETIUM (12)			$3,306.52	$1,546.17	-$32,854.13 (9)	7 - ARTHUR RADLEY (7)		-$24,135.77	$39,494.09	-$19,772.72	$5,661.28 (2)
Top Portfolios’ Contents
*Second Place Recent Performance Portfolio (ARTHUR RADLEY)*						*Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ERIKOTTO)*
Symbol (Rank)	Current Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L	Symbol (Rank)	Initial Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
ABCM	11.1%	23.0% \| 44.8%	$5,409.98	$14.58	5.7%	CABA	15.0%	22.8% \| 75.5%	$11,318.92	$340.54	3.8%
AKYA	11.1%	7.7% \| -51.4%	-$6,210.22	-$412.32	17.0%	DAWN	10.0%	4.9% \| -43.0%	-$4,298.33	$4.65	17.5%
ALVR	11.1%	7.9% \| -50.2%	-$6,060.18	$972.75	16.6%	FULC	10.0%	5.9% \| -32.0%	-$3,200.55	-$54.95	14.7%
ASRT	11.1%	3.9% \| -75.3%	-$9,099.06	-$136.55	33.6%	ICVX	5%	5.7% \| 32.4%	$1,618.39	$6.30	15.1%
EYEN	22.2%	33.6% \| 5.7%	$1,367.80	$5,468.47	3.9%	INZY	5%	15.7% \| 262.4%	$13,119.05	-$214.29	5.5%
IDIA.SW	22.2%	6.2% \| -80.5%	-$19,450.32	-$172.07	21.3%	LIFE	10.0%	4.7% \| -45.2%	-$4,520.55	-$319.63	18.3%
ISEE	0.0%	0.0% \| 86.8%	$8,682.86	$0.00	----	OCUL	10.0%	11.2% \| 28.8%	$2,882.56	$3,345.20	7.8%
LQDA	11.1%	17.5% \| 10.1%	$1,223.37	-$73.58	7.5%	PDSB	10.0%	3.4% \| -61.0%	-$6,098.48	-$75.76	25.6%
						PRQR	10.0%	4.7% \| -45.9%	-$4,594.59	$729.73	18.5%
						URGN	15.0%	20.9% \| 60.9%	$9,131.91	$2,096.96	4.1%

[DewDiligence_on_SI] Next week’s report will include the draft rules for the following year (only a ...

DewDiligence_on_SI — 12/4/2023 6:41:26 PM

Next week’s report will include the draft rules for the following year (only a few clarifications and some edge cases are being addressed).

What are the tweaks for next year? TIA

[Arthur Radley] Many Thank You's for doing the heavy lifting this year and suffering through bei...

Arthur Radley — 12/4/2023 5:14:17 PM

Many Thank You's for doing the heavy lifting this year and suffering through being the first in knowing how pitiful it has been for most of us with our portfolios.

Tomorrow, I have my second portfolio stock being bought out (ABCM) so please don't bother reallocating the cash generated by the sell.

I've learned from this experience about having a sizeable buy out early in the year and the funds are reallocation just as the massive decline set in for small biotechs. If the funds had been left in cash, I would have avoided taking a double whammy with the reinvestment provision. I doubt I will ever again have two buyouts in contest stocks, but could we opt for a rule change that gives the contestant the option on when the funds are reallocated?

[technetium] This is the first of five December reports remaining in the Contest. That means...

technetium — 12/4/2023 10:40:28 AM

This is the first of five December reports remaining in the Contest. That means it’s time to start sharpening up your pencils, and polishing your Crystal (Magic 8) Ball for the next year’s submissions. Next week’s report will include the draft rules for the following year (only a few clarifications and some edge cases are being addressed). Talk up how much fun this year’s contest was on the board and elsewhere. :-) A better year generally for biotechs than last (not all that difficult), with a real horse race for the top three portfolios here at the end. It would be nice to up the number of entrants.

The general market this week was a general repeat of the one before. Modest gains for the general market, stronger results for the biotech indices: +3% for the NASDAQ and +6% for the S&P, possibly both inching to ending the year in the black.

In individual stocks, MOR jump up +65% of its initial price. It had big drop from the previous week's close, $5.88, to $4.46 the morning of Nov 21, perhaps in response to a press release of the details from a Phase 3 study. They reported that their therapy met its primary goal (One analyst said MOR was reporting a “strong top line results”) but another announced “it did not meet a secondary endpoint”. Since MOR started the contest at $3.58 it was still a pretty decent YTD return. So was this phase 3 results report hiding such a catastrophe that one analysis said that “usually buy and hold was the prudent strategy” but for MOR It was time to close out the position. Or was it a buying opportunity? In the days after the report MOR has been on a steady climb, so that Friday it close at $7.01, thereby stepping into fifth place for the YTD return. CRIS is up +31% for the week, on no particular news since a “meh” earnings report on Nov 2. For the week’s losers KZIA dropped -40%. They had a busy week, saying that they had a non-binding agreement to purchase the non-China commercialization rights for a particular compound, and a private placement of 15% of the company for $2 million cash. CABA lost -29% for the week, but this was after a plunge of -65% of the starting price on Tuesday morning so it could have been worse.

It was a good week for the contest portfolios generally, gaining on average +$2.7k. Only two portfolios were in the red for the week. This week’s top portfolio was RKRW, +$9.7k mostly thanks to holding MOR. The second place was BLADERUNNER, +$4.7k. RKRW’s stronger result allowed them to take 5th place in the YTD results from BLADERUNNER, who slipped to 6th, ARTHUR RADLEY was in third place for the week (+$4.3k) from generally good performance from four stocks, and they return to 7th place YTD.

Last week ERIKOTTO was in first place for the week, +$4.5k, and YTD +$12k, thereby dispatching ALONER to second place. This week, alas, ERIKOTTO’s 15% bet on CABA, meant that they were -$2.8k in the red, and slipped to third place, YTD, restoring ALONER to first, and bumping up STEVELOKNESS to second, only $1.8k away from taking the gold for himself. Those horses are still racing. We might have a photo finish.

Report Time Ranges
					*From*	To
				Recent	11/24/23	12/2/23
				YTD	12/31/2022	12/2/23
Index Portfolios’ Performance
				*Symbol*	*Recent P/L*	*Recent %*	*YTD P/L*
				^IXIC	$517.63	0.4%	$36,674.70
				^NBI	$2,563.04	2.8%	-$6,777.66
				^SPSIBI	$5,026.49	5.7%	-$6,123.41
Share Performance
*Recent Performance*						*YTD Performance*
	Top Five			Bottom Five			Top Five			Bottom 5
Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L/ Initial Price
MOR		65.4%	KZIA		-40.5%	INZY		266.7%	AVTX		-98.7%
CRIS		31.1%	CABA		-28.6%	PRVB		136.5%	APTA.L		-97.6%
XENE		19.9%	STTK		-18.9%	LIAN		134.1%	RGTPQ		-96.2%
CRVS		17.6%	PDSB		-8.0%	DNTH		103.8%	ACRS		-94.3%
OMER		17.3%	DNTH		-7.8%	MOR		95.8%	TCON		-86.4%
Average and Median Portfolio Performance
	*Recent P/L*						*YTD P/L*
	Avg.	Median					Avg	Median
	$2,650.90	$2,491.06	GENEGURU				-$23,695.19	-$32,527.25	JACK HARTMANN.
Top Seven Portfolio Performances
*Top Recent Performers*						*Top YTD Performers*
Contestant (Prev. Rank)			Recent P/L	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	YTD P/L (Rank)	Contestant (Prev. Rank)		YTD P/L	vs. Top Portfolio	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	Rec. P/L (Rank)
1 - RKRW (7)			$9,683.52	$4,657.02	-$8,620.64 (5)	1 - ALONER (2)		$13,012.65	——	$19,136.06	$2,014.76 (11)
2 - BLADERUNNER (4)			$4,718.52	-$307.97	-$11,626.33 (6)	2 - STEVE LOKNESS (3)		$11,259.95	$1,752.70	$17,383.36	$695.62 (13)
3 - ARTHUR RADLEY (14)			$4,343.04	-$683.45	-$29,797.05 (7)	3 - ERIKOTTO (1)		$9,499.57	$3,513.07	$15,622.98	-$2,830.68 (15)
4 - A.J. MULLEN (13)			$4,091.28	-$935.21	-$7,441.66 (4)	4 - A.J. MULLEN (4)		-$7,441.66	$20,454.30	-$1,318.25	$4,091.28 (4)
5 - TOMATO (12)			$3,897.28	-$1,129.21	-$42,286.36 (11)	5 - RKRW (6)		-$8,620.64	$21,633.29	-$2,497.23	$9,683.52 (1)
6 - BULBAMAN (10)			$3,581.21	-$1,445.29	-$41,461.45 (10)	6 - BLADERUNNER (5)		-$11,626.33	$24,638.98	-$5,502.93	$4,718.52 (2)
7 - RAJU_BIJLEE (3)			$3,261.62	-$1,764.87	-$47,854.44 (15)	7 - ARTHUR RADLEY (8)		-$29,797.05	$42,809.70	-$23,673.64	$4,343.04 (3)
Top Portfolios’ Contents
*Top Recent Performance Portfolio (RKRW)*						*Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ALONER)*
Symbol (Rank)	Current Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L	Symbol (Rank)	Initial Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
ETON	10.0%	14.4% \| 31.2%	$3,120.57	-$177.30	7.6%	AFMD	10%	4.4% \| -60.9%	-$7,684.96	-$164.77	20.2%
HROW	10.0%	6.9% \| -36.9%	-$3,692.41	-$47.43	15.9%	CDTX	10%	10.9% \| -2.6%	-$329.45	$1,116.62	8.1%
KALV	10.0%	14.3% \| 30.5%	$3,047.34	$991.12	7.7%	CLSD	10%	10.5% \| -6.2%	-$777.81	$230.10	8.4%
KPTI	10.0%	2.5% \| -76.7%	-$7,674.12	$154.12	43.0%	CRDF	10%	9.9% \| -11.4%	-$1,435.10	$355.33	8.9%
MOR	10.0%	21.4% \| 95.8%	$9,581.01	$6,536.31	5.1%	CRIS	10%	11.3% \| 1.0%	$126.49	$3,677.93	7.8%
OCUL	10.0%	10.4% \| -4.6%	-$462.63	$1,565.84	10.5%	CRVS	10%	20.0% \| 79.4%	$10,024.64	$2,110.49	4.4%
PHAT	10.0%	7.1% \| -34.9%	-$3,493.76	-$89.13	15.4%	KZIA	10%	7.3% \| -35.0%	-$4,421.97	-$4,530.59	12.2%
TCON	10.0%	1.5% \| -86.4%	-$8,640.94	$77.18	73.6%	DNTH	10%	20.4% \| 82.6%	$10,429.65	-$879.75	4.3%
TELA	10.0%	5.4% \| -51.0%	-$5,095.65	$582.61	20.4%	MRNA	10%	5.4% \| -52.0%	-$6,570.69	$99.40	16.5%
URGN	10.0%	16.1% \| 46.9%	$4,689.97	$90.19	6.8%	PRVB	10%	0.0% \| 136.5%	$13,651.84	$0.00	--

[technetium] Happy post Thanksgiving.. May you all have happy memories or at least leftovers...

technetium — 11/24/2023 5:17:35 PM

Happy post Thanksgiving.. May you all have happy memories or at least leftovers.

So I decided to give an abbreviated report on the 1.5-3 days of trading after my previous report.

For the broader markets, continued good news, especially for the biotech indices. For the S&P biotech stocks to surge 2.4% in such a brief time is positive news indeed. In terms of the individual stocks, there were no big movers in either direction worth reporting.

The average portfolio added $2.3k on top of the $3k in the previous report. Even so, a median portfolio having dropped -$34k YTD, I suspect that the final report will have a fair percentage of red-ink portfolios for the year. But not for this report, as every portfolio made a profit. ERIKOTTO repeated his first place finish for recent performance, (+4$4.5k), pushing himself above ALONER (only +$2.2k for this report), to take first place YTD. But the three top portfolios could be considered neck and neck as we head into the final turn. There were no other changes in position for 3rd to 7th place YTD.

Report Time Ranges
					*From*	To
				Recent	11/21/23	11/24/23
				YTD	12/31/2022	11/24/23
Index Portfolios’ Performance
				*Symbol*	*Recent P/L*	*Recent %*	*YTD P/L*
				^IXIC	$486.05	0.4%	$36,157.08
				^NBI	$1,032.32	1.2%	-$9,340.70
				^SPSIBI	$2,046.35	2.4%	-$11,149.90
Share Performance
*Recent Performance*						*YTD Performance*
	Top Five			Bottom Five			Top Five			Bottom 5
Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L/ Initial Price
NAUT		16.1%	LIAN		-9.5%	INZY		274.3%	RGTPQ		-98.6%
MODD		13.3%	CDTX		-3.0%	PRVB		136.5%	AVTX		-98.3%
CABA		11.4%	XENE		-2.7%	LIAN		122.9%	APTA.L		-97.6%
ICVX		10.8%	LYEL		-2.4%	DNTH		111.6%	ACRS		-94.7%
LRMR		10.2%	AFMD		-1.8%	CABA		101.8%	IDIA.SW		-87.2%
Average and Median Portfolio Performance
	*Recent P/L*						*YTD P/L*
	Avg.	Median					Avg	Median
	$2,285.53	$2,212.16	GENEGURU				-$26,346.09	-$34,140.09	ARTHUR RADLEY
Top Seven Portfolio Performances
*Top Recent Performers*						*Top YTD Performers*
Contestant (Prev. Rank)			Recent P/L	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	YTD P/L (Rank)	Contestant (Prev. Rank)		YTD P/L	vs. Top Portfolio	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	Rec. P/L (Rank)
1 - ERIKOTTO (1)			$4,545.18	$2,498.83	$12,330.25 (1)	1 - ERIKOTTO (2)		$12,330.25	——	$23,480.16	$4,545.18 (1)
2 - STEVE LOKNESS (2)			$4,321.23	$2,274.88	$10,564.33 (3)	2 - ALONER (1)		$10,997.88	$1,332.37	$22,147.79	$2,170.13 (9)
3 - RAJU_BIJLEE (6)			$3,706.16	$1,659.82	-$51,116.07 (15)	3 - STEVE LOKNESS (3)		$10,564.33	$1,765.92	$21,714.23	$4,321.23 (2)
4 - BLADERUNNER (5)			$2,879.12	$832.77	-$16,344.86 (5)	4 - A.J. MULLEN (4)		-$11,532.94	$23,863.19	-$383.03	$1,018.04 (13)
5 - DEW DILIGENCE (8)			$2,488.49	$442.15	-$47,203.33 (14)	5 - BLADERUNNER (5)		-$16,344.86	$28,675.11	-$5,194.96	$2,879.12 (4)
6 - JACK HARTMANN (10)			$2,487.00	$440.65	-$30,960.64 (7)	6 - RKRW (6)		-$18,304.16	$30,634.41	-$7,154.25	$2,358.81 (7)
7 - RKRW (15)			$2,358.81	$312.46	-$18,304.16 (6)	7 - JACK HARTMANN (7)		-$30,960.64	$43,290.89	-$19,810.74	$2,487.00 (6)
Top Portfolios’ Contents
*Second Place Recent Performance Portfolio (STEVE LOKNESS)*						*Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ERIKOTTO)*
Symbol (Rank)	Current Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L	Symbol (Rank)	Initial Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
AKYA	15.0%	6.4% \| -53.2%	-$7,978.06	$376.18	14.2%	CABA	15.0%	27.0% \| 101.8%	$15,275.68	$1,702.70	3.3%
CRBU	5.0%	4.1% \| -9.9%	-$493.63	$286.62	22.2%	DAWN	10.0%	5.0% \| -43.4%	-$4,335.50	$125.46	17.7%
GRPH	10.0%	6.4% \| -29.2%	-$2,921.69	$90.36	14.1%	FULC	10.0%	5.8% \| -34.3%	-$3,434.07	$535.71	15.2%
DNTH	10.0%	19.1% \| 111.6%	$11,157.32	$361.66	4.7%	ICVX	5%	6.2% \| 38.7%	$1,933.25	$541.56	14.4%
MRUS	15.0%	21.2% \| 56.0%	$8,406.59	$465.42	4.3%	INZY	5%	16.7% \| 274.3%	$13,714.29	$476.19	5.3%
NAUT	10.0%	15.0% \| 66.1%	$6,611.11	$1,611.11	6.0%	LIFE	10.0%	4.9% \| -44.7%	-$4,474.89	$319.63	18.1%
PACB	10.0%	9.5% \| 4.5%	$452.32	$330.07	9.6%	OCUL	10.0%	7.1% \| -20.3%	-$2,028.47	$177.94	12.5%
PSNL	15.0%	10.8% \| -20.2%	-$3,030.30	$909.09	8.4%	PDSB	10.0%	4.3% \| -52.2%	-$5,219.70	$30.30	20.9%
QSI	10.0%	7.6% \| -16.4%	-$1,639.34	-$109.29	12.0%	PRQR	10.0%	3.6% \| -60.0%	-$6,000.00	$162.16	25.0%
						URGN	15.0%	19.5% \| 46.0%	$6,899.66	$473.51	4.6%

[technetium] Apologies. I was confusing DNTH with another stock. DNTH continues to be trade...

technetium — 11/22/2023 1:32:58 PM

Apologies. I was confusing DNTH with another stock. DNTH continues to be traded (originally as MGTA), albeit pretty low volume (typical daily volume is of order ten thousand shares).

Happy Thanksgiving!

[technetium] Because of an unexpected mid-week trip, I’m afraid that this late report will be...

technetium — 11/21/2023 6:12:49 PM

Because of an unexpected mid-week trip, I’m afraid that this late report will be unusual in that it covers trades through Tuesday the 21st, so two extra trading days. I might declare a Holliday week, and rather than report on 1.5 days of trading on the next report, I’ll wait until the Dec 1 report (the fifth before the contest close).

In any case, this week’s report is of a “baby bear” (or maybe baby bull?) case. Not super good, but not all doom and gloom. A good meaty performance from the NASDAQ composite (+2.9%), about half as good for the NASDAQ biotech composite (+1.6%), and about two and half times better by the S&P biotech index (+7.5%)!

INZY was the big winner for the week (+89% of its original price), pushing it even higher for its YTD first place position (+260%). No obvious news, maybe a case that the market took a closer look at the quarterly report from two weeks ago. ICVX was decent as well (+42%), in this case from the release of 3rd quarter financials last Wednesday and some positive results on the performance of an RSV vaccine of theirs.

MOR took a huge hit this week, dropping -85% of its initial price today, based presumably on a press release yesterday (Monday) containing top-line results for a Phase 3 study. This almost completely wiped out all the gains made for the year, though it is still in the black (+27%). Obviously this dropped it from its 4th place YTD return. It’s place taken by DNTH (+108%), and adding CABA into the fifth spot (+91%). Interestingly both DNTH and PRVB (+140%) have been acquired during the year and so their returns are locked in.

It was a good week for the contestants generally, with the average portfolio up +$3k, with all but two portfolios in the black for the week, but only three, still, in the black YTD. This week at least, it was case of winners continuing to win, as the top five gainers for the week, ended also in the top five YTD performance spots. ERIKOTTO, first place for the week (+$11k) thanks to holdings in both INZY and ICVX (even if he only put down 5 percent initially). STEVELOKNESS was in second for the week at a good (+$8.7k), in their case also holding two of the top five performers, (CRBU, and PSNL), but not good enough to stop ERIKOTTO from passing them to take over the second place in the YTD ranks. ALONER’s fourth place for the week (+$6.5k) WAS enough to keep hold of their number one YTD position, though the gap has been substantially narrowed, with ERIKOTTO only $1k behind them. RKRW, last week in fourth RTD, had the misfortune to have holdings in both MOR and HROW (third worst recent performer, -24%), so they dropped past A.J. MULLEN, and BLADERUNNER to sixth place.

Report Time Ranges
					*From*	To
				Recent	11/10/23	11/21/23
				YTD	12/31/2022	11/21/23
Index Portfolios’ Performance
				*Symbol*	*Recent P/L*	*Recent %*	*YTD P/L*
				^IXIC	$3,839.64	2.9%	$35,671.02
				^NBI	$1,452.61	1.6%	-$10,373.02
				^SPSIBI	$6,072.18	7.5%	-$13,196.25
Share Performance
*Recent Performance*						*YTD Performance*
	Top Five			Bottom Five			Top Five			Bottom 5
Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L/ Initial Price
INZY		88.6%	MOR		-85.2%	INZY		264.8%	RGTPQ		-98.7%
ICVX		41.6%	ACRS		-24.5%	PRVB		136.5%	AVTX		-98.2%
TWST		28.7%	HROW		-24.4%	LIAN		132.4%	APTA.L		-97.6%
CRBU		23.1%	GMDA		-22.8%	DNTH		108.0%	ACRS		-94.3%
PSNL		22.2%	IMTX		-16.0%	CABA		90.5%	NGM		-87.4%
Average and Median Portfolio Performance
	*Recent P/L*						*YTD P/L*
	Avg.	Median					Avg	Median
	$3,032.67	$4,067.82	DEW DILIGENCE				-$28,631.62	-$34,934.88	ARTHUR RADLEY
Top Seven Portfolio Performances
*Top Recent Performers*						*Top YTD Performers*
Contestant (Prev. Rank)			Recent P/L	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	YTD P/L (Rank)	Contestant (Prev. Rank)		YTD P/L	vs. Top Portfolio	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	Rec. P/L (Rank)
1 - ERIKOTTO (7)			$10,879.18	$4,806.99	$7,785.08 (2)	1 - ALONER (1)		$8,827.76	——	$22,024.01	$6,547.51 (4)
2 - STEVE LOKNESS (8)			$8,664.71	$2,592.53	$6,243.10 (3)	2 - ERIKOTTO (3)		$7,785.08	$1,042.68	$20,981.33	$10,879.18 (1)
3 - A.J. MULLEN (9)			$7,991.30	$1,919.12	-$12,550.98 (4)	3 - STEVE LOKNESS (2)		$6,243.10	$2,584.66	$19,439.35	$8,664.71 (2)
4 - ALONER (1)			$6,547.51	$475.32	$8,827.76 (1)	4 - A.J. MULLEN (5)		-$12,550.98	$21,378.74	$645.27	$7,991.30 (3)
5 - BLADERUNNER (3)			$6,297.71	$225.53	-$19,223.98 (5)	5 - BLADERUNNER (6)		-$19,223.98	$28,051.74	-$6,027.73	$6,297.71 (5)
6 - RAJU_BIJLEE (10)			$5,363.91	-$708.27	-$54,822.23 (15)	6 - RKRW (4)		-$20,662.96	$29,490.72	-$7,466.71	-$10,887.83 (15)
7 - TECHNETIUM (12)			$4,975.11	-$1,097.07	-$38,569.98 (9)	7 - JACK HARTMANN (7)		-$33,447.64	$42,275.39	-$20,251.39	$2,894.20 (10)
Top Portfolios’ Contents
*Top Recent Performance Portfolio (ERIKOTTO)*						*Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ALONER)*
Symbol (Rank)	Current Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L	Symbol (Rank)	Initial Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
CABA	15.0%	26.5% \| 90.5%	$13,572.97	-$421.62	3.5%	AFMD	10%	4.9% \| -57.6%	-$7,278.53	$1,857.48	18.7%
DAWN	10.0%	5.1% \| -44.6%	-$4,460.97	$264.87	18.1%	CDTX	10%	10.6% \| -8.6%	-$1,091.71	-$590.59	8.7%
FULC	10.0%	5.6% \| -39.7%	-$3,969.78	$1,222.53	16.6%	CLSD	10%	10.0% \| -13.4%	-$1,698.21	-$210.54	9.1%
ICVX	5.0%	5.9% \| 27.8%	$1,391.69	$2,078.09	15.6%	CRDF	10%	9.4% \| -19.1%	-$2,412.25	$1,332.49	9.8%
INZY	5.0%	16.9% \| 264.8%	$13,238.10	$4,428.57	5.5%	CRIS	10%	8.4% \| -27.4%	-$3,465.41	$2,570.25	10.9%
LIFE	10.0%	4.8% \| -47.9%	-$4,794.52	$91.32	19.2%	CRVS	10%	18.1% \| 56.0%	$7,069.95	$140.70	5.1%
OCUL	10.0%	7.2% \| -22.1%	-$2,206.41	$302.49	12.8%	KZIA	10%	11.5% \| -0.6%	-$73.33	$909.76	8.0%
PDSB	10.0%	4.4% \| -52.5%	-$5,250.00	$704.55	21.1%	DNTH	10%	21.6% \| 86.3%	$10,900.21	$0.00	4.3%
PRQR	10.0%	3.6% \| -61.6%	-$6,162.16	$162.16	26.1%	MRNA	10%	5.4% \| -53.6%	-$6,774.80	$537.97	17.1%
URGN	15.0%	19.9% \| 42.8%	$6,426.16	$2,046.22	4.7%	PRVB	10%	0.0% \| 136.5%	$13,651.84	$0.00	--

[technetium] As I had feared, last week’s happy news was a wee bit of an outlier, so with apo...

technetium — 11/13/2023 6:54:36 PM

As I had feared, last week’s happy news was a wee bit of an outlier, so with apologies to Robert Browning … (also, spoiler included)

The game's nearly over
And the week’s at its end;
Markets are closed;
Work on due reports;
Our hopes now take wing;
Red Ink is the norm:
ALONER’s in First Place —
No change with the world

A decent week for the market generally, NASDAQ composite up +2.4%. Biotech stock indicies? Not so much (down roughly -4% to -6%).

There were many more losers than winners in the portfolio chosen stocks. The big winner for the week was KZIA, +29% of the original price, more than enough to erase the loss of -16% the previous week. The only news to drive this was announcing a publication of some their results in an academic journal, but a more likely explanation is a market reassessment of the preliminary stage one trial results announced the previous week concluding that they were not as big a sign of problems in future performance. CABA’s +20% for the week was driven by better than expected performance in the actual released 3rd quarter financials’s on top of last week’s +35% from just a sense of antici….pation. CRIS (+14%) might be a delayed response to THEIR third quarter results announced COB on Thursday of the previous week. None of these were amongst the YTD top five, whose relative rankings were unchanged.

Losers? The worst five stocks dropped much more (-27% to -41%) than the top five gainers (+6.2% to +28%) for the week. The -41% slide in OCUL is apparently a reaction to their third quarter investment call, even if they reported an essential break-even earnings per share (-$0.01) which massively exceeded an expected loss of -$0.29. ATRA released the results of a Phase 2 trial of their MS treatment on Thursday, showing that more improvement was shown in the placebo arm, and perhaps not surprisingly dropped -32% of their initial price. This was enough to put them at 4th in the YTD big losers list (-93%).

Looking at the portfolio results, there is some residual glow from the previous weeks stellar returns, as a drop in the average portfolio of -$5.3k didn’t completely wipe out the previous week's atypical +$7.5k. Looking at the individual portfolios, we’ve gone from last week’s "everyone’s a winner" to this week where once again only one contestant was in the black, ALONER (+$1.5k), thanks to their holding both KZIA and CRIS adding +$4.8k to their portfolio value. Their good week also means that ALONER was able to return to their long held top spot in the YTD rankings from third last week, and is likewise now the only portfolio in the black (+$2.3k), with a pad of $4.7k ahead of second place. ALONER's profit for the week powered them past STEVE LOKNESS’s median performance -5.5k loss, and RKRW’s even poorer return, dominated by a loss of -$4.1k from their OCUL holding. ERIKOTTO bumped up a place to 3rd YTD, and JACK HARTMANN returned to the YTD winners at 7th place.

.

Report Time Ranges
					*From*	To
				Recent	11/03/2023	11/10/23
				YTD	12/31/2022	11/10/23
Index Portfolios’ Performance
				*Symbol*	*Recent P/L*	*Recent %*	*YTD P/L*
				^IXIC	$3,055.70	2.4%	$31,831.39
				^NBI	-$3,956.40	-4.3%	-$11,825.63
				^SPSIBI	-$5,449.91	-6.3%	-$19,268.43
Share Performance
*Recent Performance*						*YTD Performance*
	Top Five			Bottom Five			Top Five			Bottom 5
Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L / Initial Price	Symbol		YTD P/L/ Initial Price
KZIA		27.8%	OCUL		-41.1%	INZY		176.2%	AVTX		-98.2%
CABA		20.3%	ATRA		-32.3%	PRVB		136.5%	APTA.L		-97.7%
CRIS		14.2%	KRYS		-29.8%	LIAN		128.5%	RGTPQ		-94.7%
LLY		8.2%	ASRT		-28.4%	MOR		112.3%	ATRA		-93.0%
HUMA		6.2%	INZY		-26.7%	DNTH		108.0%	BLCM		-86.1%
Average and Median Portfolio Performance
	*Recent P/L*						*YTD P/L*
	Avg.	Median					Avg	Median
	-$5,258.01	-$5,450.21	STEVE LOKNESS				-$31,664.29	-$38,269.68	ARTHUR RADLEY
Top Seven Portfolio Performances
*Top Recent Performers*						*Top YTD Performers*
Contestant (Prev. Rank)			Recent P/L	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	YTD P/L (Rank)	Contestant (Prev. Rank)		YTD P/L	vs. Top Portfolio	P/L vs. ^SPSIBI	Rec. P/L (Rank)
1 - ALONER (7)			$1,509.46	$6,959.37	$2,280.25 (1)	1 - ALONER (3)		$2,280.25	——	$21,548.68	$1,509.46 (1)
2 - BULBAMAN (8)			-$784.48	$4,665.43	-$47,687.45 (13)	2 - STEVE LOKNESS (1)		-$2,421.61	$4,701.86	$16,846.82	-$5,450.21 (8)
3 - BLADERUNNER (13)			-$2,018.59	$3,431.32	-$25,521.69 (6)	3 - ERIKOTTO (4)		-$3,094.10	$5,374.35	$16,174.33	-$3,741.11 (7)
4 - JACK HARTMANN (9)			-$2,214.04	$3,235.87	-$36,341.83 (7)	4 - RKRW (2)		-$9,775.13	$12,055.38	$9,493.30	-$11,646.03 (15)
5 - GENEGURU (15)			-$2,721.74	$2,728.16	-$47,589.37 (12)	5 - A.J. MULLEN (5)		-$20,542.28	$22,822.53	-$1,273.85	-$6,048.43 (9)
6 - BMAZ001 (14)			-$2,769.89	$2,680.01	-$46,893.23 (11)	6 - BLADERUNNER (6)		-$25,521.69	$27,801.94	-$6,253.26	-$2,018.59 (3)
7 - ERIKOTTO (1)			-$3,741.11	$1,708.80	-$3,094.10 (3)	7 - JACK HARTMANN (9)		-$36,341.83	$38,622.08	-$17,073.40	-$2,214.04 (4)
Top Portfolios’ Contents
*Second Place Recent Performance Portfolio (BULBAMAN)*						*Top YTD Performance Portfolio (ALONER)*
Symbol (Rank)	Current Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L	Symbol (Rank)	Initial Allocation	Value/Total \| ROI	YTD Stock P/L	Recent Stock P/L	% Current Price Change for $1,000 P/L
ATXS	10.0%	5.9% \| -69.1%	-$6,910.68	-$228.34	32.4%	AFMD	10%	3.4% \| -72.3%	-$9,136.01	-$515.17	28.6%
BFLY	10.0%	8.3% \| -56.5%	-$5,650.41	-$203.25	23.0%	CDTX	10%	11.9% \| -4.0%	-$501.12	-$629.97	8.2%
FDMT	20.0%	19.0% \| -50.2%	-$10,049.53	-$495.27	10.0%	CLSD	10%	10.9% \| -11.8%	-$1,487.67	$151.87	9.0%
IMTX	10.0%	20.7% \| 8.2%	$815.15	-$218.14	9.2%	CRDF	10%	8.7% \| -29.7%	-$3,744.74	-$977.16	11.3%
OMER	10.0%	10.6% \| -44.7%	-$4,469.03	-$132.74	18.1%	CRIS	10%	6.4% \| -47.8%	-$6,035.66	$1,677.65	15.2%
RGTPQ	5.0%	0.5% \| -94.7%	-$4,732.87	$202.26	374.3%	CRVS	10%	19.1% \| 54.9%	$6,929.25	$281.40	5.1%
RFL	15.0%	27.0% \| -5.9%	-$882.35	-$80.21	7.1%	KZIA	10%	11.4% \| -7.8%	-$983.09	$3,111.37	8.6%
TCON	10.0%	3.0% \| -84.5%	-$8,454.36	$551.68	64.7%	DNTH	10%	23.0% \| 86.3%	$10,900.21	-$1,022.96	4.3%
VOR	10.0%	5.1% \| -73.5%	-$7,353.38	-$180.45	37.8%	MRNA	10%	5.2% \| -57.9%	-$7,312.77	-$567.56	18.8%
						PRVB	10%	0.0% \| 136.5%	$13,651.84	$0.00	--

[technetium] RVNC doing a swan dive today. Down 15% at one point on no news. I feel like som...

technetium — 11/10/2023 1:03:58 PM

RVNC doing a swan dive today. Down 15% at one point on no news.

I feel like someone knows something I don’t, regardless of clinical trial results.

[technetium] Taco Tuesday was yesterday, so I’m not sure what 25 pesos would get you. My cha...

technetium — 11/8/2023 7:26:46 PM

Taco Tuesday was yesterday, so I’m not sure what 25 pesos would get you.

My charity portfolio hasn’t seen the light of day in quite a while, so please join me in twiddling my thumbs, playing tiddlywinks, and thinking, “Wait ‘til next year!” ;-)

[Arthur Radley] ASRT: On the way down tomorrow, can I stop at GO and collect twenty-five pesos?...

Arthur Radley — 11/8/2023 6:23:36 PM

ASRT:

On the way down tomorrow, can I stop at GO and collect twenty-five pesos? I can say adios to my #7 ranking.
For the first time I can remember I have never seen a CEO's opening sentence be so blunt and truthful in his Q report. Things were realllllly bad!