Silicon Investor - Treasury Bills, Notes & Bonds of all types

[Smart_Asset] CME Fedwatch now has a 22.2% probability of a hike to 375-400 for the October...

Smart_Asset — 5/18/2026 10:24:40 AM

CME Fedwatch now has a 22.2% probability of a hike to 375-400 for the October meeting. Additionally a 1.8% chance of an additional hike to 400-425.

Most certainly a governor on the macro markets going forward from here.

cmegroup.com

[Broken_Clock] Moment of truth? It's going to get another little zig zag(or not) then bust up o...

Broken_Clock — 5/15/2026 8:40:34 AM

Moment of truth? It's going to get another little zig zag(or not) then bust up or down with vehemence. Powell's last day left Warsh with a real S Storm.

[Broken_Clock] today marked the first 30 year bond auction sale above 5% since August 2007

Broken_Clock — 5/13/2026 3:30:23 PM

[Smart_Asset] IMHO CPI numbers look like a hike should at least be a consideration. Wolf R...

Smart_Asset — 5/13/2026 1:28:26 PM


IMHO CPI numbers look like a hike should at least be a consideration. Wolf Richter is deep in the weeds but the direction is obvious....beer paywall link. wolfstreet.com CME Fedwatch leaning in the wrong direction. cmegroup.com

[Broken_Clock] IMF Warns US Treasury Market Prone To "Sudden Repricing" Due To Soaring Debt, Ov...

Broken_Clock — 4/15/2026 8:13:15 PM

IMF Warns US Treasury Market Prone To "Sudden Repricing" Due To Soaring Debt, Overreliance On Bills

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Apr 15, 2026 - 04:20 PM

The International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday that the relentless US debt issuance is undermining the premium Treasuries have commanded from investors, with implications for government securities across the globe.

“The increase in the US Treasury security supply is compressing the safety premium that US Treasuries have traditionally commanded — an erosion that pushes up borrowing costs globally,” the Washington-based IMF said in its latest Fiscal Monitor report.

The US has been selling large volumes of debt because its budget deficit has averaged roughly 6% of gross domestic product over the past three years, an unprecedented shortfall outside of wartime or recession eras. The gap is expected to stay around those levels throughout the coming decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. In reality, it will only get wider.

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As Bloomberg reports, the IMF pointed to a narrowing gap between the yields of AAA rated corporate bonds and Treasuries as a sign of reduced appeal for US government securities. While spreads have typically been viewed as a gauge of the risk investors estimate for corporate borrowers, the fund is flipping that analysis on its head to view it as a metric of how much extra buyers are willing to pay for Treasuries.

“A narrowing spread implies that the premium investors pay for the safety and liquidity of Treasuries (relative to high-grade corporate debt) is compressing,” the IMF said. The fund showed that AAA corporate spreads have shrunk to roughly 35 basis points from more than 55 basis points at the start of 2019.

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Besides funding runaway US debt, another danger flagged by the IMF was the increasing reliance of the US Treasury on sales of short-dated debt, a process launched by Janet Yellen and her Activist Treasury Issuance, and maintained ever since. Having initially criticized the Bill buildout, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last year said that it didn’t make sense to expand issuance of longer-dated securities, given that their yield levels were above those of T-Bills, which mature in under a year.

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“When debt is concentrated at shorter maturities, governments must refinance more frequently, increasing their exposure to abrupt shifts in market conditions or investor sentiment,” the fund said, noting that the US - along with all other "developed" governments - has shifted reliance toward sales of bills.

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Wednesday’s warnings come three weeks before Bessent’s Treasury sets out its latest plan for US debt issuance, known as the quarterly refunding policy statement.

Finally, the IMF also flagged the increasing role that hedge funds are playing in the Treasuries market, via so-called cash-futures basis trades, as a risk.

“The liquidity that hedge funds supply through such trades can be prone to flight, as it is backed by more-leveraged investors: a spike in volatility or financing costs can trigger forced unwinding, amplifying price dislocations,” it said.

Multiple elements - historically high borrowing needs, the composition of demand for Treasuries tilting toward hedge funds and the increasing reliance on shorter-dated securities - are contributing to increased vulnerability of the market to a “sudden repricing,” according to the IMF. These dynamics can also become self-reinforcing, the fund said.

“If investors grow concerned about a country’s rollover capacity, they may demand higher yields or step back from auctions of sovereign bonds altogether, validating the initial concern,” the IMF said, effectively explaining what happens when a Ponzi scheme stops working.

“The resulting political pressure to address rising costs of servicing debt may itself become a source of uncertainty that markets price in.”

Meantime, the Iran war will stoke new fiscal pressures, forcing governments to choose between cushioning their economies from rising energy costs or keeping a lid on borrowing, the IMF also said.

“The Middle East has added a new source of fiscal pressure to an already strained global landscape,” it said. “In a scenario of prolonged conflict, global debt-at-risk could increase by an additional 4 percentage points,” the IMF said, using a term that refers to the danger of repayment difficulties in an adverse scenario.

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As finance ministers and central bankers from around the world gather in the US capital this week for the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank, the fund chided most major economies on their fiscal policies, starting with the US which has “no debt consolidation plan in sight” - the IMF certainly is correct there - while China’s persistent large deficits are continuing to add to its borrowing load, which is also accurate, but fails to discuss China's relentless dumping of products which are collapsing its core export markets as their manufacturing sectors implode as they can't complete with Chinese state subsidies. Several European Union member nations have triggered escape clauses from the union’s rules on deficits in order to fund defense spending, the IMF noted.

But the US has a special role, given how reverberations in the Treasuries market spread across the world, the IMF said.

“The transmission is global: supply-driven increases in US yields spill over almost one-for-one to foreign bond markets, disproportionately affecting countries reliant on external financing,” the IMF said.

The full IMF Fiscal Monitor report can be found here.

[Broken_Clock] The Debt Spiral Ends In Dollar Destruction: 6 Hard Truths America Can No Longer ...

Broken_Clock — 4/6/2026 7:12:07 PM

The Debt Spiral Ends In Dollar Destruction: 6 Hard Truths America Can No Longer Ignore

Monday, Apr 06, 2026 - 09:20 AM

Authored by Nick Giambruno via Doug Casey's International Man,

“Whenever governments are granted power to purchase their own debt, they never fail to do so, eventually destroying the value of the currency.” – Ron Paul

Let’s take a step back and look at the big picture so we can assess the US government’s financial situation, where it’s likely headed, and what these trends could mean.

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Observation #1: It’s Politically Impossible To Cut SpendingAmong the biggest expenditures for the US government are so-called entitlements like Social Security and Medicare.

It’s unlikely any politician will cut entitlements. On the contrary, I expect them to continue growing.

That’s because tens of millions of Baby Boomers - about 22% of the population - will enter retirement in the coming years. Cutting Social Security and Medicare is a sure way to lose an election.

The interest on the federal debt is already the second-largest federal expenditure. In a matter of months, it’s set to exceed Social Security and become the biggest expenditure.

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With the most precarious geopolitical situation since World War 2, National Defense—another large expenditure—is unlikely to be cut. Instead, defense spending is all but certain to increase. President Trump has proposed increasing it from $917 billion to $1.5 trillion. The ongoing war with Iran guarantees military spending has nowhere to go but up, way up. The Pentagon has requested an additional $200 billion for starters for the Iran war.

Different types of healthcare and welfare programs also make up a considerable part of the federal budget and are unlikely to be cut.

In short, efforts to reduce expenditures will be meaningless unless it becomes politically acceptable to make chainsaw-like cuts to entitlements, national defense, and welfare while reducing the national debt to lower the interest cost.

In other words, the US would need a leader who—at a minimum—returns the federal government to a limited Constitutional Republic, closes the 128 military bases abroad, ends entitlements, kills the welfare state, and repays a large portion of the national debt.

However, that’s a completely unrealistic fantasy. It would be foolish to bet on that happening.

Here’s the bottom line.

The government cannot even slow the spending growth rate, let alone cut it.

Expenditures have nowhere to go but up—way up.

Observation #2: Ever-Increasing Debt Is the Only Way To Finance DeficitsWhen faced with a choice, politicians always choose the most expedient option.

In this case, that means issuing more debt rather than making tough budget decisions or explicitly defaulting.

Consider the recurring debt ceiling farce in the US Congress, which has been raised over 100 times since 1944.

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In any case, don’t count on increased tax revenue to offset these increases in federal expenditures.

Even if tax rates went to 100%, it still wouldn’t be enough to stop the debt from growing.

According to Forbes, there are around 902 billionaires in the US with a combined net worth of about $6.8 trillion.

The US federal government spent around $7 trillion in FY 2025, and will almost certainly spend a lot more in FY 2026 and beyond.

Even if the US government confiscated 100% of billionaire assets through a wealth tax, it wouldn’t cover even a single year of current federal spending.

And even after confiscating all billionaire wealth, the US government would still have to borrow more than $200 billion to cover FY 2025 spending.

Here’s the bottom line: increasing taxes, even to extreme levels, isn’t going to change the trajectory of this unstoppable trend—even slightly.

The truth is, no matter what happens, the deficits will not stop growing, nor will the debt needed to finance them.

The growth rate is not even going to slow down. It’s going to increase.

That means interest expense on the federal debt will continue exploding higher.

Observation #3: Over Half of US Treasury Debt Matures by 2028This year, nearly $10 trillion of US Treasuries will mature.

And every bond that comes due has to be refinanced at today’s much higher rates—locking in substantially larger interest costs for years. What used to roll over quietly can now only be rolled over at roughly double the interest cost seen in 2022.

That’s what the chart below is really showing: the easy-money era is over. The “free money” party ended, and now the bill for the last round of stimulus has to be carried—and paid.

More than half of America’s debt will mature by 2028.

Every time US debt is refinanced at higher rates, it adds interest costs to the deficit—costs that have to be financed with even more debt issuance, compounding the problem.

It’s worth noting that about $6.6 trillion of the $9.6 trillion maturing this year—roughly 69%—are short-term T-bills.

That’s typical in a debt crisis. As demand for long-term bonds weakens, investors gravitate to short-term instruments like T-bills instead of 10-year notes and 30-year bonds.

It’s the same pattern you see in emerging-market crises. The market shortens maturities as conditions deteriorate. Only a fool would want to lend a bankrupt government money for the long term.

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Observation #4: An Ever-Growing Interest Expense Fuels the Debt SpiralAnnualized interest on the federal debt exceeds $1.2 trillion and is surging higher. That means more than 23% of federal tax revenue is going just to service interest on the existing debt.

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Ray Dalio is one of the world’s most successful hedge fund managers.

His success is due to his consistent ability to get the Big Picture right.

He recently said this (emphasis mine):

“We are at a point in which we are borrowing money to pay debt service.

When you keep having debt growth faster than income growth, that means you have debt service encroaching on your spending, and you want to keep spending at the same time.

As that happens, there is a need to get more and more into debt. It accelerates.

We are at the point of that acceleration. We are near that inflection point.”

The financial position of the US government has been gradually deteriorating for decades, so it’s not surprising that many people are complacent. They’ve long heard about the debt problem, and nothing has happened.

However, it is now reaching the tipping point.

That’s because the US government is now borrowing money to pay the interest on the money it has already borrowed, as Dalio noted. Politicians are adding more debt to solve the problems of prior debt. It’s creating a self-perpetuating doom loop.

The federal debt’s interest cost is already higher than the defense budget. It’s on track to exceed Social Security in the coming months and become the biggest in the federal budget.

In short, the skyrocketing interest expense has become an urgent threat to the US government’s solvency.

Observation #5: Surging Interest Expense Forces Fed To Ease Monetary PolicyThe soaring interest expense threatens the solvency of the US government and forces the Fed to cut interest rates, buy Treasuries, and implement other monetary easing measures to try to control interest costs.

In the bond market, when demand for a bond falls, the interest rate rises to entice buyers.

However, the federal debt is so extreme that allowing interest rates to rise high enough to entice more natural buyers could bankrupt the US government because of the higher interest costs.

For context, when Paul Volcker raised interest rates above 17% in the early 1980s the US debt-to-GDP ratio was around 30%. Today, it’s north of 123% and rising rapidly.

Today’s higher debt load and accompanying interest expense are why meaningfully higher interest rates are not on the table; the growing interest expense could lead to the US government’s bankruptcy.

That’s a big reason President Trump has stacked the Fed with loyalists who will push for lower interest rates and pursue easy-money policies.

Further, the world isn’t hungry for more US debt right now. It’s an inopportune moment for lackluster demand because supply is exploding higher.

If higher interest rates are off the table and cannot entice more natural buyers, and foreigners aren’t going to step up to the plate, who will finance these growing multi-trillion dollar budget deficits?

The only entity capable is the Federal Reserve, which buys Treasuries with dollars it creates out of thin air.

Observation #6: Ever-Increasing Currency Debasement Is InevitableThe skyrocketing interest expense forces the Fed to implement interest cost control policies, which inflate the money supply and debase the currency.

As that happens, prices rise.

That causes the US government to spend even more on Social Security and welfare to keep up with the cost-of-living increases. The same is true of defense and other government spending, which adjusts upward for rising prices.

Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recently said, “Barely staying even with inflation or worse is wholly inadequate. Significant additional resources for defense are necessary and urgent.”

This compounds the problem because, as government spending rises to account for rising prices, that increased spending can only be financed with more currency debasement.

That’s why ever-increasing currency debasement is the inevitable outcome of the US government’s debt spiral.

It’s a self-perpetuating doom loop from which they cannot escape.

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In short, the only way the US government can continue to finance itself is for the Fed to create ever-increasing amounts of fake money.

It brings to mind the phrase: “You can’t taper a Ponzi scheme.”

Financial commentator Max Keiser originally said these simple yet profound words.

A Ponzi scheme is an unsustainable scam that relies on a continuous influx of new money to keep it going.

The scheme collapses if the flow of new money slows down or tapers.

Many believe the Federal Reserve is running what amounts to a giant Ponzi scheme.

That’s because the US government’s obscene spending and skyrocketing debt have reached an inflection point.

The whole system will collapse unless the Fed pumps an ever-increasing amount of new fake money into the system.

It’s like being on a runaway train with no brakes.

Ludwig von Mises, the godfather of free-market Austrian economics, summed up the Fed’s dilemma:

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.

The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

The US government will not voluntarily “abandon credit expansion,” as Mises puts it, because Washington is dependent on issuing increasing amounts of debt to pay for the ever-growing costs of Social Security, national defense, welfare, and interest on the federal debt.

That means their only choice is to debase the US dollar by ever-increasing amounts until, as Mises puts it, the “final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

It’s like a drug addict who needs to keep raising his dose to get the same effect… until he dies of an overdose.

If this trend continues, the damage to your savings, purchasing power, and personal freedom could be far greater than most people imagine. And by the time the crisis is obvious to everyone, taking effective action may be much harder.

[Broken_Clock] [graphic]

Broken_Clock — 3/27/2026 10:51:54 PM

[Broken_Clock] The yield curve is almost back to normal which I think means bond dudes are thin...

Broken_Clock — 3/20/2026 10:20:08 PM

The yield curve is almost back to normal which I think means bond dudes are thinking no more cuts....

[Smart_Asset] A repeat of 2023 with T-Bills as high as 5.5% would work for me....easy to sleep...

Smart_Asset — 3/20/2026 9:06:33 PM

A repeat of 2023 with T-Bills as high as 5.5% would work for me....easy to sleep nights.

[Broken_Clock] [graphic]

Broken_Clock — 3/20/2026 6:17:59 PM

[Broken_Clock] All indicators turning up Bounced off 200 week MA Inflationary war just getting...

Broken_Clock — 3/20/2026 5:47:27 PM

All indicators turning up
Bounced off 200 week MA

Inflationary war just getting started.
Target 6.5% to 7% ??

Mortgages over 8%?

[Broken_Clock] 4-Week 912797TJ6 03/24/2026 04/21/2026 3.615% 3.676% Bought yesterday. I think...

Broken_Clock — 3/20/2026 11:51:01 AM

4-Week	912797TJ6	03/24/2026	04/21/2026	3.615%	3.676%

Bought yesterday. I think only higher from here but we'll see.

[Broken_Clock] Do you feel lucky buying bonds? 5 year chart TNX [graphic]

Broken_Clock — 3/13/2026 1:16:07 PM

Do you feel lucky buying bonds? 5 year chart TNX

[Smart_Asset] Bought 912797NL7 this morning 4.030%. matures 11/28/2025

Smart_Asset — 10/2/2025 11:57:15 AM

[Broken_Clock] zerohedge.com June has been the first month w/yield rise in short term bills in...

Broken_Clock — 7/16/2025 12:51:23 AM

zerohedge.com

June has been the first month w/yield rise in short term bills in a while

[Broken_Clock] Passage of the Big Beautiful Bill promises higher rates ahead. finance.yahoo.co...

Broken_Clock — 7/3/2025 2:42:40 PM

Passage of the Big Beautiful Bill promises higher rates ahead.

finance.yahoo.com

[Broken_Clock] got some 8 week yesterday at 4.48

Broken_Clock — 7/3/2025 3:58:54 AM

[Broken_Clock] Message 35179146

Broken_Clock — 6/27/2025 5:04:05 PM

[Broken_Clock] It's a weird anomaly that the 8 week yield is steadily climbing while others are...

Broken_Clock — 6/20/2025 1:04:38 PM

It's a weird anomaly that the 8 week yield is steadily climbing while others are dropping.

[Smart_Asset] Bought 912797QK6 this morning...got 4.445%....thanks

Smart_Asset — 6/20/2025 12:21:40 PM

[Broken_Clock] 8-Week 912797QK6 06/24/2025 08/19/2025 4.470% 4.564%

Broken_Clock — 6/18/2025 4:50:21 PM

[Smart_Asset] I have a T-Bill maturing Friday and will likely buy 912797QT7 which today is at ...

Smart_Asset — 6/18/2025 9:53:51 AM

I have a T-Bill maturing Friday and will likely buy 912797QT7 which today is at an acceptable 4.345%. The discount money will go into dividend payers, growth stocks, and a bit of speculative stock.

[Broken_Clock] Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, On January 8, 2025, ...

Broken_Clock — 5/28/2025 12:22:42 PM

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

On January 8, 2025, we answered many of your questions with an article entitled Why Are Bond Yields Rising? Since then, bond yields initially fell but have recently risen back to early January levels. Unsurprisingly, our email boxes are again filled with the same questions we got in early January.

This article presents a different perspective on the question of why bond yields are rising. We focus on the difference between narratives and fundamentals. However, we briefly review the current situation with Treasury yields before starting.

Fundamental Bond ModelThe two graphs below, updated from the January article, illustrate the strong historical correlation between ten-year bond yields and our model, which is based on inflation, inflation expectations, and economic activity. Currently, the fair value yield of the ten-year UST is 3.94%, approximately 64 basis points below the actual yield. The gap between the fair value and the bond’s yield is technically referred to as the term premium. The term ‘premium’ quantifies all non-model factors that impact yields. Today, the divergence can largely be explained by deficits and tariff-related inflation concerns, i.e., the current narratives.

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The following graph provides historical context for the relationship between yields and inflation. Yields jumped in 2021 and 2022 as inflation rose to a peak of 9%. Since then, inflation has fallen rapidly and is nearing the Fed’s 2% target. However, bond yields remain near their highs, trading in a wide range spanning 3.75% to 5.00%.

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Day Traders, Narratives, and FundamentalsFundamentals, such as the price-to-earnings ratio for stocks or the term premium for bonds, are meaningless for day traders. Narratives explaining why markets rise or fall are equally worthless to day traders. Day traders focus on minute-by-minute imbalances between buyers and sellers. They devise trading tools to quantify how said imbalances may impact prices. Their work is incredibly technical. Most successful short-term traders do not care about market narratives and do zero fundamental analysis. The impact of these traders is most considerable on very short-term intraday prices.

Looking beyond the day traders, narratives often determine the short to medium-term price trends. These narratives, which can last days, weeks, months, or longer, are stories or themes that shape how traders and investors interpret and react to changes in the financial markets. They simplify complex topics into easily digestible explanations. Sometimes, market narratives accurately explain why markets are moving in one direction or the other. However, other times they prove false. Whether grounded in hard data or not, market narratives can perpetuate market trends by shaping shorter-term investor behaviors. Furthermore, as narratives gain popularity, they are amplified by the media and, more recently, social media platforms.

Moving out further, fundamental-based investors focus on hard data and facts. At its core, fundamental analysis enables investors to determine the intrinsic value of an asset or market, and therefore assess whether it is overvalued or undervalued. While fundamental analysis focuses on objective data, its interpretation can vary widely. Investors grounded in fundamentals are willing to look beyond the second-by-second trading of day traders and the narratives that move assets for weeks or months at a time. They are comfortable buying an asset at what they believe is a discount to its fair value.

Fundamentals vs NarrativesAs active investors, we strike a balance between the short-term impact of narratives and the longer-term performance driven by fundamentals.

This is incredibly difficult in the stock market, as stocks can stay well above or below their intrinsic value for years. Thus, stock narratives tend to result in longer-lasting trends than bond market narratives.

To better appreciate this, consider the first graph below, which shows the correlation between the CAPE10 for the S&P 500 and the one-year returns following each monthly valuation. The chart encompasses 75 years of data. As we highlight, we can expect a one-year performance range of approximately plus or minus 20% at current valuations. Moreover, with an R-squared of .0277, we have no confidence in that forecast.

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The following graph shows that fundamentals are much more predictive of returns over 10-year periods. According to this model, the current expectations for the S&P 500’s annualized ten-year return range from -0.50% to +3.50%. Not only is the range of expectations tight, but we are much more confident, as evidenced by the R-squared of 0.4033.

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If you are a buy-and-hold long-term investor, the paltry expected returns that stocks offer over the next ten years should provide caution. However, the first graph informs active traders that the sequence of the annual returns, which comprises the ten-year total return, is difficult to predict. Narrative and sentiment will determine that sequence.

In the bond market, narratives also considerably impact yields, but they don’t tend to last nearly as long. This is due to the interconnectedness between yields and economic activity. Higher interest rates provide less incentive to invest or consume. Thus, as we have repeatedly seen throughout history, periods of above-trend interest rates have been associated with slow or negative economic growth, and vice versa.

Feeding The NarrativesNarratives typically need a steady diet of supporting news to sustain themselves. To feed the beast, so to speak, the market exaggerates some news and downplays other news.

The recent round of Treasury auctions is a perfect example of how the current bond bearish narrative shapes the way news is reported.

The 20-Year Doom AuctionThe bearish narratives were in overdrive after the Moody’s credit downgrade and the larger-than-expected “Big Beautiful” government spending bill. But narratives always need to be fed. The bearish bond narrative ate on May 21, 2025, with a Treasury 20-year auction deemed “terrible” and “horrible” by some pundits. Some interpreted the auction as an obvious sign that the Treasury was struggling to fund itself.

Might those views be a bit of an exaggeration?

Some fear-mongers pointed out the “large” auction tail. The tail is the difference between the auction yield and the yield before the auction. A large tail can mean insufficient demand for the auctioned bonds. As the graph below shows, the recent red tail is not that abnormal. Moreover, the size of the tail is volatile in both directions. This is partly because the 20-year bond is not as widely regarded as a market benchmark as other maturities.

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Also, indirect buyers were allotted 82% of the auction bonds. These are primarily central banks. So, foreign demand was strong despite the anti-dollar narrative claiming that central banks are selling US Treasuries in size?

Indeed, the auction could have been better, but the media exaggerated the outcome to feed the bearish bond narrative.

The Unseen 10-Year AuctionTwo weeks before the “horrendous” 20-year auction, a very good 10-year auction was met with little fanfare.

For context, the 10-year Treasury is more closely followed than the 20-year and significantly more heavily traded. Importantly, it is a key economic rate, meaning it has a substantially greater financial impact than the 20-year yield. Lastly, bear in mind the 10-year auction was $42 billion, compared to the relatively small $16 billion 20-year auction.

Despite being much larger than the 20-year bond, the 10-year auction was met with strong demand, as seen in the graph below. Primary dealers (direct bidders), the backstop for Treasury auctions, account for the third-lowest allotment since at least 2008 at 8.9%. This signifies that demand from other sources was robust.

Second, there were bids for 2.6x as many bonds as were being auctioned. The average of the last six auctions was 2.4x. Furthermore, the ratio was at the high end of the range of the last ten-plus years.

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On May 6th, despite the outstanding 10-year auction, bonds eked out a small gain. The meh 20-year auction and the bearish narratives it fed pushed prices significantly lower. Furthermore, the fear emanating from the 20-year auction sent shockwaves to the stock market, which, as circled below, fell rapidly following the announcement of the auction results.

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Debunking The Deficit NarrativeWe believe the hefty term premium is primarily a function of the deficit narratives spreading through the bond market.

History has shown that government spending is often unproductive. Almost all economists agree that the US government has a negative multiplier on its debt. This means that each dollar of government spending reduces long-term economic growth. Therefore, higher deficits lead to lower growth and lower inflation. While the market worries about the sheer size of bond issuance required to meet the government’s funding needs, it overlooks the potential negative impact on economic growth and inflation. One side of the story feeds the narrative, the other doesn’t.

To help quantify the economic impact of large deficits, we share the graphic below from Rising National Debt Will Cause Significant Economic Damage by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, May 2025.

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The graphic below from the report shows that by 2070, the debt-to-GDP ratio may surpass 200%. Assuming that proves correct, which is a big assumption, it would still be below Japan’s current ratio of 265%. Moreover, Japan’s economic growth has slowed to a crawl. Their GDP is the same today as it was in 2018. Further consider that its population is shrinking, and the yen is not the world’s reserve currency. Japanese 10- and 30-year yields are 1.60% and 3.10%. S&P and Moody’s rate them a notch below the US at A+ and A1, respectively.

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SummaryWe are active investors, which entails walking the fine line between narratives and fundamentals. Whether we agree with the prevailing narratives or not, we must comply with them, as they can significantly impact prices. However, we must also recognize and seize opportunities when we believe the narrative has stretched the price too far from its fundamentals.

Such is the dilemma we face today with bond yields. If we are correct that the bond market is overreacting to deficits, we may see a sharp drop in yields. However, if the current narrative persists, current yield levels or even higher yields may persist.

Our deficit has been growing for decades. We believe this is a critical reason economic and productivity growth has weakened for over 40 years. We have little doubt that if this continues, it will someday become highly problematic. However, that day is not today!

[Broken_Clock] 25 Years of Higher Interest Rates Ahead?Interest rates are linked to inflation, ...

Broken_Clock — 5/2/2025 2:45:03 PM

25 Years of Higher Interest Rates Ahead?Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk.

Charles Hugh Smith

May 02, 2025

As a result of recency bias, where we assume the recent past is a permanent state of affairs, many believe near-zero interest rates are "normal." They aren't. As the chart of 10-year US Treasury yields--a proxy for interest rates throughout the economy--illustrates, rates in the 3% or lower were an anomaly that only occurred in the relatively brief period of 2011-2022.

For the five decades between 1960 and 2007, interest rates of 4% and higher were the norm. These included the glorious decades of stable growth and rising stocks / housing valuations--the 1960s, 1980s, 1990s and up to 2007, just before the financial crisis of 2008-09.

For 33 of those years, interest rates of 5.75% or higher were the norm, from 1967 to 2000. No one said that the economy would collapse if interest rates didn't drop to 3%, for it was understood that super-low interest rates would ignite inflation and incentivize destructive speculative excesses.

For the 25 years between 1970 and 1994, rates between 5.75% and 8% were normal. The 10-year Treasury yield is now around 4% to 4.2%--far lower than what was considered normal for 25 years.

It's long been noted that interest rate cycles tend to run for decades, not years. Interest rates rose for around 25 years, and then declined for 40 years from 1981 to 2020--a period that was longer than average, thanks to the dominance of central bank monetary policies, or perhaps more accurately, the growing dependence of economies on extraordinarily low interest rates for their "growth."

If history is any guide, interest rates will rise back to the historic range between 5.75% and 8% and linger there for the better part of two decades. Alternatively, rates break above that range and skyrocket into the realm of debt / inflationary crises.

The return of Treasury yields to the historically "normal" range of 4% and higher has doubled the Federal interest payments on Federal debt. It was easily predictable that super-low interest rates would encourage an orgy of borrowing and spending of all that "nearly free money," which is precisely what happened.

The interest paid by households has also soared for the same reason: not just because interest rates rose, but because the borrowed money (debt) being serviced exploded higher due to low interest rates.

Higher debt / interest payments squeeze out other spending. Debt payments come first, or the entity defaults on its debts and enters bankruptcy--a bankruptcy that tends to bankrupt the lenders who will be lucky to collect pennies on every dollar they lent out.

Households are going to have a hard time servicing debt and spending more as rates rise, for wage earners' share of the economy has been in a freefall for 50 years. Less income + higher debt service payments = lower discretionary income to spend + inability to borrow more money to spend = recession.

Interest rates are linked to inflation, but they're also linked to risk. The cost of money isn't simply tied to inflation expectations--it's also tied to speculative excesses blowing credit-asset bubbles which implode, destroying the phantom wealth generated by the bubble.

The lenders that survive the implosion are wary of lending money to all but the most conservative, risk-averse, creditworthy borrowers backed by ample collateral. That excludes the majority of households and enterprises.

[Broken_Clock] "Absolutely Spectacular Meltdown": The Basis Trade Is Blowing Up, Sparking Multi...

Broken_Clock — 4/8/2025 11:02:02 PM

"Absolutely Spectacular Meltdown": The Basis Trade Is Blowing Up, Sparking Multi-Trillion Liquidation Panic

"There’s massive deleveraging going on, any source of liquidity is being tapped... hedge funds have been liquidating US Treasury basis trades furiously."

[Broken_Clock] bloomberg.com

Broken_Clock — 4/2/2025 10:29:12 AM

[Broken_Clock] zerohedge.com

Broken_Clock — 3/27/2025 2:53:36 PM

[Smart_Asset] I'd add fear and doubt to the uncertainty...FUD. Treasuries are a good place to...

Smart_Asset — 3/27/2025 2:46:50 PM

I'd add fear and doubt to the uncertainty...FUD.

Treasuries are a good place to be right now...

[Broken_Clock] In other words, most believe inflation could go higher and employment could go l...

Broken_Clock — 3/27/2025 2:41:51 PM

In other words, most believe inflation could go higher and employment could go lower.

"The Fed is worried that the ongoing stagflation shock is going to intensify further," Torsten Sløk, chief economist for Apollo, said in a March 25 note that cited the Summary of Economic Projections data. (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management.)

The Fed has a new favorite word: 'Uncertainty'

Jennifer Schonberger · Senior Reporter
Thu, March 27, 2025 at 1:00 AM PDT 4 min read

There is suddenly a new word that appears again and again in remarks from the Federal Reserve’s top officials: "uncertainty."

It started last week with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who used the word 22 times during March 19 remarks to reporters following the central bank’s decision to leave rates unchanged.

"Uncertainty is remarkably high," Powell said of the US economic outlook.

His colleagues have since spoken from the same script. New York Fed president John Williams last Friday used the word 12 times while delivering a speech titled "Certain Uncertainty."

This week, Fed governor Adriana Kugler cited a "heightened level of uncertainty,” while St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem warned about "considerable uncertainty” in determining the effect President Trump’s tariffs will have on inflation.

The certainty of this widespread uncertainty for central bank policymakers was also on full display in the Fed's quarterly Summary of Economic Projections released last Wednesday — even as officials maintained a prior prediction for two rate cuts at some point this year.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference, following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy, in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 19, 2025. (REUTERS/Nathan Howard) · REUTERS / Reuters What Fed officials changed in those projections was their outlook on inflation (higher) and economic growth (lower), with Powell telling reporters that a driving reason for the change was uncertainty stemming from Trump's plans for an aggressive slate of new tariffs.

"It's hard to know with any precision how the economy will evolve," Williams said last Friday, acknowledging "there is certain uncertainty in monetary policy."

Another sign of uncertainty in the Summary of Economic Projections: Nearly all Fed officials said that risks to their unemployment forecasts were weighted to the upside and risks to their inflation forecasts were weighted to the downside.

In other words, most believe inflation could go higher and employment could go lower.

"The Fed is worried that the ongoing stagflation shock is going to intensify further," Torsten Sløk, chief economist for Apollo, said in a March 25 note that cited the Summary of Economic Projections data. (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management.)

Fed policymakers are not the only ones going to the word "uncertainty" to describe their current predicament. The same is true in the business world, where companies have started using it when warning about lower profit and revenue forecasts.

FedEx ( FDX) did so last week, with its CFO saying its "revised earnings outlook reflects continued weakness and uncertainty in the U.S. industrial economy.”

Another was Delta Air Lines ( DAL), which said earlier this month that lower first quarter revenue and profit forecasts were the result of "increased macro uncertainty."

American consumers also say they are experiencing increased uncertainty. The latest consumer confidence index reading from the Conference Board clocked in at the lowest level in more than four years amid uncertainty around President Trump's policies.

Expectations were particularly dour when it came to inflation, with expectations rising to 6.2% in March, up from 5.8% in February.

The hope from the business world and Wall Street is that next week could provide some clarity when on April 2 Trump releases a promised set of "reciprocal tariffs" on other countries.

There is even some optimism those tariffs may turn out to be more limited than once expected.

But for Fed policymakers, that may only lead to another period of uncertainty as they try to figure out how much of any additional inflation they expect to see is a one-off effect that will prove to be temporary.

Powell, for example, said last week that it was his "base case" that any price increases could prove to be "transitory."

But the St. Louis Fed president, Musalem, said Wednesday that new tariffs could have a more persistent impact on inflation.

"I would be wary of assuming that the impact of tariff increases on inflation will be entirely temporary," Musalem said during a speech in Kentucky.

"The direct price-level effects [of tariffs] are expected to have only a brief and limited impact on inflation, but the indirect effects could have a more persistent impact on inflation," he added.

Musalem offered the example of beer from Canada. If it is subject to a 25% tariff, US consumers could shift out of Canadian beer to American-made Budweiser and then Budweiser could increase its prices as people look for locally produced goods.

"Distinguishing, especially in real-time, between direct, indirect, and second-round effects entails considerable uncertainty," he added.

[Smart_Asset] Bought 912797V5 maturing 6/2/25 at 4.289% Nice to have a no risk purchase in th...

Smart_Asset — 3/20/2025 11:18:26 AM

Bought 912797V5 maturing 6/2/25 at 4.289%

Nice to have a no risk purchase in this market.

[Smart_Asset] I have a chunky T-Bill maturing tomorrow and searching for T-Bill maturities int...

Smart_Asset — 3/19/2025 11:52:49 AM

I have a chunky T-Bill maturing tomorrow and searching for T-Bill maturities into May and June I'm not finding anything attractive...might have to consider SGOV.

[Broken_Clock] No, that wasn't Wolf but he will be updating these charts soon. and here is his ...

Broken_Clock — 3/12/2025 6:09:23 PM

No, that wasn't Wolf but he will be updating these charts soon. and here is his latest
wolfstreet.com

[Smart_Asset] Didn't realize it was Wolf...as you know I am an admirer..

Smart_Asset — 3/12/2025 5:46:39 PM

[Broken_Clock] LOL! I'm sure Wolf will be on it soon

Broken_Clock — 3/12/2025 4:19:50 PM

[Smart_Asset] Informative graph but difficult to give too much credit to someone whose editing...

Smart_Asset — 3/12/2025 3:42:44 PM

Informative graph but difficult to give too much credit to someone whose editing misses 'Expese' for Expense.

[Broken_Clock] [graphic] [graphic]

Broken_Clock — 3/12/2025 3:18:16 PM

[Broken_Clock] I'm seeing this craziness overnight again. No idea what causes it. [graphic]

Broken_Clock — 2/27/2025 10:00:11 PM

I'm seeing this craziness overnight again. No idea what causes it.

[Broken_Clock] February 19, 2025 Last summer, the Federal Reserve wanted you to believe that i...

Broken_Clock — 2/19/2025 3:57:07 PM

February 19, 2025

Last summer, the Federal Reserve wanted you to believe that inflation was a thing of the past.

Sure, just about every category of consumer goods had increased in price. Electricity rates had increased 5% year over year. Rent and housing costs were up 5%. Hospital care had become 6% more expensive. Food prices were up. Fuel prices were up. Auto insurance had risen by a whopping 18.6%.

Yet, bizarrely, the overall inflation average was just 2.9%. And based on that number alone, the Federal Reserve had all but declared victory against inflation.

We knew it was BS. And, after diving into the numbers, it didn’t take us very long to realize why.

It turned out that, back in the summer of 2024, used car prices were falling dramatically— down around 11% year-over-year.

You probably remember what happened: during the pandemic, supply chain snarls and factory closures caused used car prices to go through the roof. Eventually, prices peaked... and then started to fall.

By July 2024, used car prices were still on their way down... essentially returning to a more ‘normal’ level. And based on the way that the government calculates inflation, the huge drop in used car prices dragged down the overall average, making the headline inflation rate appear smaller than it really was.

We wrote about this last summer. And we predicted that the decline in used car prices would soon cease... essentially eliminating the key drag that was holding the inflation rate down.

That has now happened. And as of last month, used car prices are no longer falling... and the overall rate of inflation is once again on the rise.

This is where our discussion begins in today’s podcast, and it’s an important one. We talk about why, at this point, lingering inflation is a major challenge. And it’s becoming a more likely scenario.

There are obviously some forces within the government that are working really hard to cut spending. There are also legions of misguided (or flat-out corrupt) politicians who are fighting to prevent those budget cuts from happening.

It’s a see-saw right now and could go either way. But, at least for now, the government is still spending taxpayer money like a drunken sailor.

Last year’s budget deficit was nearly $2 trillion. They’re already on track to repeat that this year. All of that deficit spending adds to the $36+ trillion national debt.

But what makes matters even worse is that an unbelievable $28 trillion of the national debt will have to be refinanced over the next four years,according to Federal Reserve data. (We show you the Fed’s data in the podcast— it’s a chart you’ll want to see.)

The key problem, of course, is that interest rates are significantly higher today than they were several years ago. So when the Treasury Department refinances that $28 trillion in debt, it will be at a MUCH higher rate.

Think about it— if most of that debt was sold at a 2% rate, but now they have to refinance at 5%, then that’s an extra 3% interest to pay on $28 trillion— or $840 billion per year in additional interest.

Remember that the government’s interest bill is already $1.1 trillion per year. So in four years it could easily eclipse $2 trillion per year. Again, this is just the amount of interest.

It’s also pretty clear that a lot of foreign governments and central banks— who own a huge chunk of that $28 trillion which needs to be refinanced— are looking to diversify away from the dollar.

It’s already happening; obviously there are the loudmouthed BRICS countries that have started trading with one another in their own currencies, and thus begun reducing their dollar holdings. But even supposed ally nations in Europe are starting to trade their US dollar reserves for gold.

This is setting up a precarious situation... because if foreign governments and central banks continue reducing their dollar exposure, then who is going to buy up all that $28 trillion worth of US government debt that needs to be refinanced?

Well, the only remaining lender is the Federal Reserve. And as we’ve discussed before, the Fed buys government bonds by printing money... which ultimately causes inflation.

During the pandemic, the Fed printed $5 trillion and we got 9% inflation. Over the next four years the Fed might have to print a good chunk of that $28 trillion just to help refinance US government debt. So what will inflation be? No one knows. But probably not their magical 2% target.

The only way out is to slash government spending. And certainly there is a lot of low hanging fruit for DOGE to cut, which could get the deficit (and therefore inflation) under control.

But this is far from a risk-free proposition. And that’s why it still makes so much sense to have a Plan B.

We discuss all this, and more, in today’s podcast— and we hope you take time to listen in here.

[Broken_Clock] Wolf thinking: "But a bond market freakout over accelerating inflation and a la...

Broken_Clock — 2/12/2025 2:44:19 PM

Wolf thinking:

"But a bond market freakout over accelerating inflation and a lax Fed – resulting in higher long-term yields that really matter for the economy – would nudge the Fed to switch its bias to rate hikes again. To keep long-term yields from rising too much, the Fed will need to show the bond market that it’s serious about inflation, and that it will crack down again if inflation re-accelerates substantially.

That’s the irony: The Fed might have to hike short-term rates again to make sure long-term interest rates remain “moderate” – paying attention to the third part of its mandate, to conduct monetary policy “so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” The mandate is silent about the Fed’s short-term policy rates. It’s “long-term interest rates” that are in the mandate, and the way to get there is to keep inflation in check."

Poor 10Y Auction Tails Despite Surging Yields

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Feb 12, 2025 - 08:29 AM

After yesterday's stellar 3Y auction, many were expecting today's sale of benchmark 10Y paper to also be very solid too, especially after the massive post-CPI concession which sent the 10Y surging by over 10bps. It did not quite work out that way, and when the Treasury sold $39BN in 10Y paper at 1:00pm ET, the auction tailed by 0.9bps, the biggest tail since August, in a sale that left a lot to be desired.

[url=][/url]

The bid to cover dropped to 2.48 from 2.53, this was the lowest bid to cover since August.

The internals were better with Indirects rising tom 71.6% from 61.4%, the highest since October 24. And with Directs awarded 14.8%, Dealers were left holding just 13.6%, the lowest since last October.

[url=][/url]

Overall, this was a disappointing, if hardly terrible auction, and considering the massive surge in yields, it probably should have had better participation, although the market was hit by way too many other news to care about this particular sale and predictably, the 10Y barely moved in the secondary market after the news of the auction broke.

[Smart_Asset] Bought a bunch of 912797KJ5 at 4.320% ..matures 3/22/2025 Not as happy as I wa...

Smart_Asset — 2/6/2025 11:02:08 AM

Bought a bunch of 912797KJ5 at 4.320% ..matures 3/22/2025

Not as happy as I was Nov of 2023 but sleeping well.

[Broken_Clock] [graphic] Some surprising observations in Bessent's last letter to investors: "...

Broken_Clock — 1/17/2025 12:50:21 AM

Some surprising observations in Bessent's last letter to investors: "Tariffs are inflationary and would strengthen the dollar -- hardly a good starting point for a US industrial renaissance... A weak dollar and plentiful, cheap energy could power a boom."

.....Sounds like rate cuts and inflation at home to me.How else you gonna get a weaker dollar?

[Broken_Clock] (Reuters) - Top Wall-Street brokerages revised their Fed rate cut forecasts, af...

Broken_Clock — 1/10/2025 12:41:50 PM

(Reuters) - Top Wall-Street brokerages revised their Fed rate cut forecasts, after a blow-out U.S. jobs report on Friday, with BofA Global Research forecasting a potential rate hike from the central bank.

"We think the cutting cycle is over ... Our base case has the Fed on an extended hold. But we think the risks for the next move are skewed toward a hike," BofA analysts said in a note.

[Broken_Clock] I'm thinking 5.5 - 6% this year [graphic]

Broken_Clock — 1/3/2025 3:04:56 PM

I'm thinking 5.5 - 6% this year

[Smart_Asset] Bought 912797MJ3 this morning at 4.343% maturing 2/6/2025 ..works for me...

Smart_Asset — 12/26/2024 10:27:20 AM

[Broken_Clock] stay tuned for possible follow through and breakout [graphic]

Broken_Clock — 12/18/2024 2:54:19 PM

stay tuned for possible follow through and breakout

[Broken_Clock] investopedia.com simple explanation

Broken_Clock — 12/17/2024 10:12:29 PM

[Broken_Clock] The Head of Fixed Income at T. Rowe Price Makes the Scary Case for the 10-Year T...

Broken_Clock — 12/17/2024 1:28:22 PM

The Head of Fixed Income at T. Rowe Price Makes the Scary Case for the 10-Year Treasury to Spike to 6 Percent

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: December 17, 2024 ~

Arif Husain, Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income, T. Rowe Price

Arif Husain is the head of Global Fixed Income and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of the Fixed Income Division of T. Rowe Price. He is also a member of the firm’s Management Committee. Husain holds a B.Sc. (honors) in banking and international finance from the City University London, Cass Business School. When Husain speaks, Wall Street listens.

What Husain has been saying since October is that the U.S. is on a collision course with higher interest rates.

In October, Husain released his interest rate outlook for the next six months, writing the following about the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note, whose yield impacts mortgage rates and a wide swath of debt instruments:

“I think that the 10-year Treasury yield will test the 5.0% threshold in the next six months, steepening the yield curve. There are three dynamics at play: 1. Fed rate cuts could limit yield increases on short-maturity Treasury bills. 2. Ongoing issuance by the Treasury to fund the government’s deficit spending is flooding the market with new supply. 3. The Fed’s quantitative tightening has taken a large, reliable buyer of Treasuries out of the market, further skewing the balance of supply and demand in favor of higher yields.”

Husain’s analysis in October had yet to factor in the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. Now that there is no longer any doubt that President-elect Donald Trump and his promised tariffs and tax cuts must be factored into any interest rate forecast, Husain had this to say on a November 22 Global Market Webinar at T. Rowe Price when queried by his colleague, Investment Specialist Ritu Vohora:

Vohora: So coming to you now, Arif. You know, Blerina talked there about one of the key risks is around fiscal policy. The U.S. deficit is on track to be 7% of GDP at the end of the year. I think the interest expense alone is going to be higher than the defense budget, which is mind-boggling. When should we start worrying about the debt burden? I feel like we talk about it, but when do we actually start worrying?

Husain: You should be worried right now. I think, certainly, the initial reaction in the bond market post-the-election was to go after some of the fiscal laggards. So, the European peripheral market got hit. The UK bond market got hit, and so did the U.S. Now there’s been plenty of volatility.

So I think you got to be worried about the bond market. I’m on record of saying I think the U.S. 10-year will get to 5%. I said that before the election.

There’s only more evidence, new information, to think, to believe that and frankly, I said 5%, because 5% you need to go through 5 to get to 6.

So for me, what will create fiscal austerity? What will create a little bit more discipline around the deficit? Can’t see it. I really can’t see it. And really, I think the real thing that most people miss when they’re just looking at the U.S. fiscal deficit is a really simple point, which is the U.S. are not the only people who need to sell a lot of debt. A huge, huge amount of debt.

You know, Justin was talking about Chinese stimulus a moment ago. Guess what that is: debt issuance. And every country with the exception of Germany, actually, the German debt break is one of their structural, one of the structural issues holding them back a little bit, but from a bond holder’s perspective it’s a positive, right, but other than that, everyone is selling lots and lots and lots of debt in a time when central banks are no longer buying it. And so from a global perspective, I think we really need to worry about deficits and the lack of plan to address them. And the U.S. is at the front of the queue there. You know, every week, every second week, they’ve got to, they come with massive bond issuance and really to my mind, bond yields need to be a lot higher to be competitive. And you’ve got to see a much steeper yield curve to make that longer duration debt a lot more attractive.

At this point in the webinar, another colleague asks Husain, “Arif, did you, did you just call for 6% U.S. 10-year as a possibility?” Husain responds: “I think we’ll see 5 before 6, that’s for sure.”

This morning, Husain’s outlook for rising interest rates in the U.S. is getting a lot more attention. Bloomberg News has put excerpts from a new report by Husain in a headlined article on its digital front page. The article is apparently syndicated, because it is being picked up by other news outlets, including Yahoo! Finance.

If Husain is correct and the 10-year Treasury yield blows past 5 percent on its way to 6 percent, there are going to be a lot more than bond holders licking their wounds. (As yields on bonds rise in the secondary market, their market price declines in order to bring their yield to the going rate on new bonds of the same maturity.)

Because the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury impacts mortgage interest rates, a rise in its yield could price more home buyers out of the market because they would be unable to afford the higher monthly mortgage cost. This could lead to a slump in home prices and potentially negatively impact consumer sentiment.

A yield of 5 percent or higher on the 10-year Treasury note could also lure money out of stocks and into Treasuries. Should a stock exodus become a stampede, a handful of tech stocks trading at nosebleed valuations might plunge, leading to more selloffs.

Since Donald Trump’s ego is bound up in the stock market only rising when he’s in the driver’s seat, this could lead to Trump making imprudent demands on the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, or firing him as a scapegoat. Since Powell has said he will serve out his term as Fed Chair, irrespective of Trump’s threats to fire him, a Trump-Powell debacle could unnerve foreign investors, leading to capital flight out of the U.S.

In fact, we’re shocked we haven’t seen that already, given the chaos Trump has outlined for his first 100 days in office.

[Broken_Clock] Added some more 28 day bills @4.609%...now fully invested for the next few month...

Broken_Clock — 11/26/2024 2:32:09 PM

Added some more 28 day bills @4.609%...now fully invested for the next few months

[Broken_Clock] Looking at Great Britain today makes me think the debt tsunami may be arriving a...

Broken_Clock — 10/31/2024 2:04:56 PM

Looking at Great Britain today makes me think the debt tsunami may be arriving at a station near us sooner rather than later.

Will the Fed blink and raise rates or cower and lower spurring more inflation?

[Smart_Asset] Bought a bunch of 912797LD7 maturing 11/14/2024 with a yield of 4.702% My ladde...

Smart_Asset — 10/31/2024 1:18:28 PM

Bought a bunch of 912797LD7 maturing 11/14/2024 with a yield of 4.702%

My ladder is no longer a ladder but a step ....a fairly large step but a step nonetheless.