Silicon Investor - No Super Cycles Here

[sunabeach] SPX might have found a possible short term low (wave 3 of 5 of A?) yesterday. F...

sunabeach — 8/19/2023 3:10:00 PM

SPX might have found a possible short term low (wave 3 of 5 of A?) yesterday. Fell in time and price projections. If so, wave 4 and 5 likely complete by end Aug/early Sept. Though Sept is not often kind to the markets. See how it goes.

[sunabeach] Referencing my 5/4/23 previous post - even though there was both a close below l...

sunabeach — 6/15/2023 1:16:03 PM

Referencing my 5/4/23 previous post - even though there was both a close below level to confirm bear trend as well as second day closing below it there was no further follow-through. In fact about a week later there was a double bottom test of key level which held and its been all up from there, officially in my mind at least - and many others of course, killing the bear.

I notice someone else on SI sticking to their guns ........ going down with the ship mixing metaphors. ;-)

Note: ignore many of the label wave counts. Haven't had time to adjust/amend some of them.

[sunabeach] It was a long time coming but an open below 4081.15 (today's line in the sand) a...

sunabeach — 4/25/2023 6:42:32 PM

It was a long time coming but an open below 4081.15 (today's line in the sand) and continuation lower should confirm bear market resumption. TWT

[sunabeach] End of 1st quarter 2023, looks to be make or break for this bear continuing or n...

sunabeach — 3/31/2023 9:08:23 PM

End of 1st quarter 2023, looks to be make or break for this bear continuing or not (2nd image is zoomed in of last couple of months of 1st):-

[sunabeach] Here's another chart pic of alternative (bullish) wave count .... failing. Wave...

sunabeach — 12/20/2022 5:08:38 PM

Here's another chart pic of alternative (bullish) wave count .... failing. Wave 4 close back into Wave 1 close range (magenta horizontal line), a couple of days ago. Can't happen. So the bear continues:-

[sunabeach] Maybe should have waited till the end of day to post this, oh well not likely mu...

sunabeach — 12/16/2022 11:35:43 AM

Maybe should have waited till the end of day to post this, oh well not likely much difference other than a possible even lower low:-

[sunabeach] Alternate count which is basically a re-labeling of bear trend to a complete (?)...

sunabeach — 12/12/2022 7:50:52 PM

Alternate count which is basically a re-labeling of bear trend to a complete (?) ABC corrective period, and resumption of overall bull trend. Which would mean waves 3 of 5 complete of a higher level Wave 1 are underway. I don't believe that is so but if it is, this covers it so far.

Now tonight before shutting down I noticed this so .................... let's see what CPI and FED does to things by Wednesday's close:-

[sunabeach] The trend is the trend. As for an alternate count (of the bullish variety) look...

sunabeach — 12/9/2022 4:22:58 PM

The trend is the trend.

As for an alternate count (of the bullish variety) look to get a chance to take a further look over the weekend.

[da_cheif™] being bearish is easy ...anybody can do it loll

da_cheif™ — 12/9/2022 4:20:14 PM

[sunabeach] All caught up, I believe:- [graphic]

sunabeach — 12/9/2022 4:11:45 PM

All caught up, I believe:-

[Claude Cormier] No, I think this is a bear market that will conclude in 2H2023 or 1Q2024, possib...

Claude Cormier — 12/1/2022 1:38:53 AM

No, I think this is a bear market that will conclude in 2H2023 or 1Q2024, possibly earlier, depending on how quick it reaches the target.

[da_cheif™] u mean bull mkt correction eh?

da_cheif™ — 11/30/2022 11:18:20 PM

[da_cheif™] is there an alternate?/

da_cheif™ — 11/30/2022 11:16:51 PM

[sunabeach] Back to a Dynamic Trader chart with latest, which if correct looks it is setting...

sunabeach — 10/11/2022 2:35:28 PM

Back to a Dynamic Trader chart with latest, which if correct looks it is setting up for a big reaction from CPI on Thursday:-

[sunabeach] Here is another way of looking at current situation. In TradeStation I've labele...

sunabeach — 10/6/2022 11:42:16 AM

Here is another way of looking at current situation. In TradeStation I've labeled Waves using Tom DeMark's Wave Analysis - which is somewhat similar to Elliott Waves. Using fib numbers counting highest/lowest X number of bars (Used his standard count of 13-8-21-13-34 for impulse down and currently 8-13-21 corrective up. That last wave HH of 21 is nowhere near complete. May continue to move sideways to up completing around 3900.xx or so. If this scenario plays out, another 5 wave impulse down would be in order. But that is getting way ahead of things.

[sunabeach] Markets so busy having had much time to update chart. This one is a bit cluttere...

sunabeach — 9/29/2022 5:00:40 PM

Markets so busy having had much time to update chart. This one is a bit cluttered. Unlike someone else on SI doing waves I don't believe current lower level wave 4 is complete yet. Tomorrow or a day or two next week may prove me wrong. Nothing wrong with being wrong. Take 'em as they come. Might be able to delve deeper into things over the weekend and possibly gain some more clarity.

[sunabeach] Lower fib zone reached in less than 2 full trading days. Happens when there is a...

sunabeach — 9/23/2022 1:01:11 PM

Lower fib zone reached in less than 2 full trading days. Happens when there is a fib void and a boulder rolling downhill kind of momentum behind it.

[sunabeach] Here is today's after the close update. Wave 3 (look out belooow) of wave 5 of W...

sunabeach — 9/21/2022 7:35:28 PM

Here is today's after the close update. Wave 3 (look out belooow) of wave 5 of Wave 3 or C is progressing down. Lower fib zone is now target after upper one was done away with.

[Claude Cormier] What would be this target? A '5' and at the same time 'a' of ('2' or 'B)

Claude Cormier — 9/21/2022 4:19:10 PM

[sunabeach] Sitting right on a fib cluster that if it doesn't hold next stop likely 3681-366...

sunabeach — 9/16/2022 10:02:09 AM

Sitting right on a fib cluster that if it doesn't hold next stop likely 3681-3665:-

[sunabeach] Crazy stuff. Practically bounced off each level ... like playing Pong from days ...

sunabeach — 9/15/2022 9:58:34 AM

Crazy stuff. Practically bounced off each level ... like playing Pong from days of old.

[sunabeach] Sure gets us there quick. ;-) Maybe tomato.

sunabeach — 9/13/2022 4:53:55 PM

[Claude Cormier] I just need to see many more daily bars play out. Days like today!

Claude Cormier — 9/13/2022 3:57:01 PM

[sunabeach] Thought I'd post before the new week starts latest $SPX chart pic showing confir...

sunabeach — 9/11/2022 5:01:55 PM

Thought I'd post before the new week starts latest $SPX chart pic showing confirmation and/or invalidation of current EW count.

Confirmation is closing below: 3911.74
Invalidation is closing above: 4128.73

Time window is still between now and Sept 19th.

Which gap (the one above, or the one from Friday's open above Thursday's close) will fill first is the question that should be answered very soon.

Note: for anyone who might be lurking this is a woke/non-woke free topic. Just price. That's all markets ever care about.

[sunabeach] So I m thinking more about SPX 2000-2200 than anything else. Could very well be....

sunabeach — 8/31/2022 10:36:30 AM

So I m thinking more about SPX 2000-2200 than anything else.

Could very well be. I just need to see many more daily bars play out.

[Claude Cormier] Thanks. Well time will tell. I think this is a bear, we are entering a recessi...

Claude Cormier — 8/31/2022 10:12:21 AM

Thanks. Well time will tell. I think this is a bear, we are entering a recession. And what we are correcting here is the economic boom from 2009.So I m thinking more about SPX 2000-2200 than anything else.

[sunabeach] Ok, here is what I got. With a fresh chart window I re-labeled higher level wav...

sunabeach — 8/30/2022 7:28:32 PM

Ok, here is what I got.

With a fresh chart window I re-labeled higher level waves as they should have been from the start, to Wave 1 or A, Wave 2 or B and current one Wave 3 or C. Still not clear which count will turn out to be the case but I'm leaning on Wave A, B and C otherwise it will be a yuuge bear market (not ready to go there unlike many other folks) to reach way down into SPX 2000's.

Minor wave 1 and 2 complete of major Wave C or 3. Today's daily bar landed in the minimum minor wave 3 fib price zone ... but in less trading days than minor wave 1, 3 days vs 6. So I'd say it might reach next fib zone 3871-3851 area in another 1-3 or so days.

Final wave 5 of Wave C fib zones are also down there (minimum) 3666-3595 and (typical) 3211-3144, (maximum) you don't want to know about lol. Way too soon to try to guess that anyway.

Need wave 3 completion as well as wave 4 to estimate wave 5 more accurate bottom fib time and price zone.

Note below price bars I also have fib time projections (just like at top, Wave B or 2 took 38.2% time to complete) Wave C or 3 shows currently Oct 10th-Oct 14th likely time period for end of overall bear market correction. Unless??

Also current wave 3 ending between now and Sept 19th. I know that's a wide range, but everything can change with a single daily bar so all possibilities are considered.

That should do it for now ... unless of course it is not a ABC correction but a wave 1-5 bear trend.

[Claude Cormier] That count makes sense to me. You have a target for this bear market?

Claude Cormier — 8/30/2022 2:18:52 PM

[sunabeach] Latest "greatest" cleaned-up count - wave 3 of a greater Wave 3 underway:- [gra...

sunabeach — 8/29/2022 6:44:57 PM

Latest "greatest" cleaned-up count - wave 3 of a greater Wave 3 underway:-

[sunabeach] Nothing further to add to my first post other than to say I believe the longer t...

sunabeach — 8/19/2022 6:47:02 PM

Nothing further to add to my first post other than to say I believe the longer term downtrend has not completed. I also believe the current uptrend has not ended either. Time will tell if one or the other or both are correct.