Silicon Investor - 2022 Biotech Charity Contest

[mopgcw] Well done! donation sent!

mopgcw — 1/3/2023 9:53:28 AM

[technetium] The final report for the year! 27 out of the 33 contestants were in the top ten ...

technetium — 1/2/2023 11:54:00 AM

The final report for the year!
27 out of the 33 contestants were in the top ten list this year. The biotech market was highly volatile and performed badly, but nearly everyone had a winner at one point or another.

Even if the market didn’t give us a lot to celebrate in terms of cash money, there were some entertaining moments.

The results for the 2022 contest were announced in an earlier post, but the detailed commentary for the week, as well as an end of contest wrap up, were deferred.

For a short, holiday bookended, week, there was a surprising amount of action in the end. The NASDAQ Composite, and its associated Biotech Index, both lost ground, but the S&P Biotech Index added +2.7%. At the end of the year, the tech heavy NASDAQ Composite lost -33%, substantially worse than the S&P 500, and DJ Average. The two biotech composites were in the red, (S&P Biotech -26%, NASDAQ Biotech -11%) but outperformed the broader performance of the market.

The last week GLYC added another +52% of its initial price, continuing momentum from last week’s announcement of positive stage three trial interim results, putting it’s year long performance at +110% Second place PDSB (+43% for the week, +63% for the year) also announced improved advanced cancer patient survival results visible during the phase 2 clinical trial. MACK had a great week as well (+28%) erasing most of the loss from the week before, and ending the year up +193%, the best performing stock in the contest. SNGX was the only notable loser for the week (-29%), seemingly with the market backing off from their enthusiasm for a positive (primate based) study result of the previous week. In terms of the whole year performance, it’s worth noticing CBIO in fifth place, where proceeds from a sale of IP returned to investors as a special dividend was much of the stock’s return for the year.

The following gives the results for every stocks chosen in the 2022 contest portfolios, ordered alphabetically by ticker, and in order of return.

Symbol	Annual Return	Symbol	Annual Return	Symbol	Annual Return	Symbol	Annual Return	Symbol	Annual Return
^SPSIBI	-25.71%	BIOA-B.ST	97.91%	FRTX	-85.44%	NBIX	40.24%	SEEL	-58.34%
2269.HK	-35.44%	BLCM	-51.68%	FSTX	25.90%	NBSE	-93.23%	SIOX	-66.28%
4BB.L	3.21%	BMY	15.40%	FULC	-58.85%	NCNA	-72.27%	SNGX	-31.55%
ABBV	19.36%	BPMC	-59.10%	GENO.ST	-45.41%	NKTR	-83.27%	SNPX	-86.37%
ABCM	-33.93%	BRTX	-36.64%	GLPG	-19.50%	NVCR	-2.30%	SNWV	-86.59%
ABIO	10.23%	BTAI	5.66%	GLYC	110.42%	NVTA	-87.82%	SPEX.SW	-75.78%
ACET	-48.89%	BTI.V	-81.48%	GMAB	7.13%	OCUL	-59.68%	SPPI	-70.98%
ACHL	-82.04%	CABA	144.06%	GNCA	-99.99%	OCUP	-5.36%	STOK	-61.53%
ACHV	-68.51%	CASI	-77.63%	GOSS	-80.81%	OMER	-64.85%	STSA	-80.00%
ACRS	8.32%	CBIO	113.07%	HALO	41.51%	ONT.L	-68.43%	STTK	-72.97%
ADAP	-61.07%	CDMO	-52.81%	HARP	-90.39%	OPTN	14.20%	SYNH	-64.28%
AFIB	-66.28%	CDTX	-40.45%	HPHA.DE	-2.45%	OTIC	-95.81%	TARA	-60.30%
AFMD	-77.54%	CGEM	-31.63%	HROW	70.83%	PACB	-60.02%	TARS	-34.84%
AKBA	-74.47%	CHRS	-50.38%	HRTIS.HE	-35.31%	PAX.ST	-42.49%	TCON	-46.21%
AKYA	-37.49%	CKPT	-83.57%	IDIA.SW	-28.97%	PCVX	101.56%	TGTX	-37.74%
ALBO	-7.21%	CLRB	-74.25%	IMTX	-35.19%	PDSB	62.96%	TOMDF	-84.66%
ALDX	74.00%	CLSD	-59.27%	IMUX	-85.37%	PFE	-13.23%	TRIB	-30.77%
ALNY	40.14%	CLVS	-97.00%	IMVT	108.33%	PHIO	-62.80%	TVTX	-32.25%
ALVR	-60.36%	CMPS	-63.67%	INCY	9.43%	PHO.OL	-6.08%	VKTX	104.35%
AMBS	-89.38%	CMRX	-71.07%	INZY	-84.60%	PIRS	-72.49%	VLON	-95.15%
AMRN	-64.09%	CRDF	-76.71%	IONS	24.12%	PLXP	-97.95%	VOR	-42.77%
AMRS	-71.72%	CRIS	-88.45%	IPHA	-18.20%	PRDS	-89.68%	VRCI.L	-78.92%
APLS	9.37%	CRSP	-46.36%	IPIX	-62.00%	PRQR	-53.81%	VRTX	31.50%
APTO	-57.04%	CRVS	-64.73%	JSPR	-93.85%	PRTC	-13.78%	VSTM	-80.37%
AQST	-76.81%	CYCC	-82.76%	KALV	-48.90%	PRTG	-50.71%	WVE	122.93%
ARCT	-54.17%	DCTH	-53.55%	KNSA	27.27%	PRVB	88.08%	XENE	26.22%
ARGX	8.18%	DNA	-79.66%	KZIA	-92.70%	PTE	-95.54%	XENT	3.44%
ARNA	7.60%	DRMA	-76.49%	LGND	-56.75%	PTGX	-68.10%	XERS	-54.61%
ASLN	-67.86%	DYAI	-72.79%	LIFE	-70.68%	QURE	9.31%	XFOR	-56.64%
ASMB	-44.21%	DYN	-2.52%	LPTX	-86.11%	RARE	-44.90%	XRTX	-60.59%
ATHX	-96.27%	ENTA	-37.79%	LQDA	30.80%	REGN	14.25%	XXII	-70.21%
AUPH	-81.11%	ESPR	24.60%	LRMR	-61.72%	REPL	0.37%	YMTX	-36.15%
AUTL	-63.39%	ETON	-34.27%	MACK	193.09%	RETA	44.07%	ZLAB	-51.15%
AVDL	-11.39%	ETTX	0.46%	MEIP	-90.88%	RFL	-63.33%
AVXL	-46.60%	EYEN	-59.25%	MESO	-39.38%	RHHBY	-24.26%
AYLA	-95.30%	FATE	-82.76%	MGTA	-91.08%	RIGL	-43.40%
AZT.OL	-31.16%	FBIO	-73.80%	MORF	-43.54%	RNLX	-88.24%
BBLG	-94.04%	FENC	118.18%	MREO	-53.13%	RVNC	13.11%
BCYC	-51.37%	FGEN	13.62%	MRK	44.77%	SCYX	-74.43%
BIIB	15.42%	FOLD	5.71%	MYOV	73.15%	SEDANA.ST	-83.46%

	Symbol	Annual Return		Symbol	Annual Return		Symbol	Annual Return		Symbol	Annual Return		Symbol	Annual Return
1	MACK	193.09%	41	ARNA	7.60%	81	VOR	-42.77%	121	CMPS	-63.67%	161	SEDANA.ST	-83.46%
2	CABA	144.06%	42	GMAB	7.13%	82	RIGL	-43.40%	122	AMRN	-64.09%	162	CKPT	-83.57%
3	WVE	122.93%	43	FOLD	5.71%	83	MORF	-43.54%	123	SYNH	-64.28%	163	INZY	-84.60%
4	FENC	118.18%	44	BTAI	5.66%	84	ASMB	-44.21%	124	CRVS	-64.73%	164	TOMDF	-84.66%
5	CBIO	113.07%	45	XENT	3.44%	85	RARE	-44.90%	125	OMER	-64.85%	165	IMUX	-85.37%
6	GLYC	110.42%	46	4BB.L	3.21%	86	GENO.ST	-45.41%	126	AFIB	-66.28%	166	FRTX	-85.44%
7	IMVT	108.33%	47	ETTX	0.46%	87	TCON	-46.21%	127	SIOX	-66.28%	167	LPTX	-86.11%
8	VKTX	104.35%	48	REPL	0.37%	88	CRSP	-46.36%	128	ASLN	-67.86%	168	SNPX	-86.37%
9	PCVX	101.56%	49	NVCR	-2.30%	89	AVXL	-46.60%	129	PTGX	-68.10%	169	SNWV	-86.59%
10	BIOA-B.ST	97.91%	50	HPHA.DE	-2.45%	90	ACET	-48.89%	130	ONT.L	-68.43%	170	NVTA	-87.82%
11	PRVB	88.08%	51	DYN	-2.52%	91	KALV	-48.90%	131	ACHV	-68.51%	171	RNLX	-88.24%
12	ALDX	74.00%	52	OCUP	-5.36%	92	CHRS	-50.38%	132	LIFE	-70.68%	172	CRIS	-88.45%
13	MYOV	73.15%	53	PHO.OL	-6.08%	93	PRTG	-50.71%	133	SPPI	-70.98%	173	AMBS	-89.38%
14	HROW	70.83%	54	ALBO	-7.21%	94	BCYC	-51.37%	134	CMRX	-71.07%	174	PRDS	-89.68%
15	PDSB	62.96%	55	AVDL	-11.39%	95	BLCM	-51.68%	135	AMRS	-71.72%	175	HARP	-90.39%
16	MRK	44.77%	56	PFE	-13.23%	96	CDMO	-52.81%	136	NCNA	-72.27%	176	MEIP	-90.88%
17	RETA	44.07%	57	PRTC	-13.78%	97	MREO	-53.13%	137	PIRS	-72.49%	177	MGTA	-91.08%
18	HALO	41.51%	58	IPHA	-18.20%	98	DCTH	-53.55%	138	DYAI	-72.79%	178	KZIA	-92.70%
19	NBIX	40.24%	59	GLPG	-19.50%	99	PRQR	-53.81%	139	STTK	-72.97%	179	NBSE	-93.23%
20	ALNY	40.14%	60	RHHBY	-24.26%	100	ARCT	-54.17%	140	FBIO	-73.80%	180	JSPR	-93.85%
21	VRTX	31.50%	61	^SPSIBI	-25.71%	101	XERS	-54.61%	141	CLRB	-74.25%	181	BBLG	-94.04%
22	LQDA	30.80%	62	IDIA.SW	-28.97%	102	XFOR	-56.64%	142	SCYX	-74.43%	182	VLON	-95.15%
23	KNSA	27.27%	63	TRIB	-30.77%	103	LGND	-56.75%	143	AKBA	-74.47%	183	AYLA	-95.30%
24	XENE	26.22%	64	AZT.OL	-31.16%	104	APTO	-57.04%	144	SPEX.SW	-75.78%	184	PTE	-95.54%
25	FSTX	25.90%	65	SNGX	-31.55%	105	SEEL	-58.34%	145	DRMA	-76.49%	185	OTIC	-95.81%
26	ESPR	24.60%	66	CGEM	-31.63%	106	FULC	-58.85%	146	CRDF	-76.71%	186	ATHX	-96.27%
27	IONS	24.12%	67	TVTX	-32.25%	107	BPMC	-59.10%	147	AQST	-76.81%	187	CLVS	-97.00%
28	ABBV	19.36%	68	ABCM	-33.93%	108	EYEN	-59.25%	148	AFMD	-77.54%	188	PLXP	-97.95%
29	BIIB	15.42%	69	ETON	-34.27%	109	CLSD	-59.27%	149	CASI	-77.63%	189	GNCA	-99.99%
30	BMY	15.40%	70	TARS	-34.84%	110	OCUL	-59.68%	150	VRCI.L	-78.92%
31	REGN	14.25%	71	IMTX	-35.19%	111	PACB	-60.02%	151	DNA	-79.66%
32	OPTN	14.20%	72	HRTIS.HE	-35.31%	112	TARA	-60.30%	152	STSA	-80.00%
33	FGEN	13.62%	73	2269.HK	-35.44%	113	ALVR	-60.36%	153	VSTM	-80.37%
34	RVNC	13.11%	74	BRTX	-36.64%	114	ADAP	-61.07%	154	GOSS	-80.81%
35	ABIO	10.23%	75	AKYA	-37.49%	115	STOK	-61.53%	155	AUPH	-81.11%
36	INCY	9.43%	76	TGTX	-37.74%	116	LRMR	-61.72%	156	BTI.V	-81.48%
37	APLS	9.37%	77	ENTA	-37.79%	117	IPIX	-62.00%	157	ACHL	-82.04%
38	QURE	9.31%	78	MESO	-39.38%	118	PHIO	-62.80%	158	FATE	-82.76%
39	ACRS	8.32%	79	CDTX	-40.45%	119	RFL	-63.33%	159	CYCC	-82.76%
40	ARGX	8.18%	80	PAX.ST	-42.49%	120	AUTL	-63.39%	160	NKTR	-83.27%

The second table shows just how brutal it was for the Biotech industry, at least for the issues picked for the contest. Out of 189 issues only 48 were in the black, 14 lost more than 90% of their value.

For the final report, the results of the last week returned BIO-TITAN, ROCKY9, and TAMBORELLI to the top 10 performing portfolios. GENEGURU, the winning portfolio, was in the top 10 list every week, 52 reports, though they made it to the number one position only for the last two weeks of the contest. DEW DILIGENCE (51), TECHNETIUM (51), and DIEGOSAN (50), also were frequent members of the top 10 club. The number one spot was occupied by only seven different contestants during the year, DIEGOSAN for a remarkable 39 weeks, followed by HORESINALFALFA (6), GENEGURU(2), TECHNETIUM(2), with single appearances by BRENDAN_49, JACK_HARTMANN, and RKRW.

GENEGURU’s individual stock picks performance:

Symbol	Initial Allocation	Initial Investment	Final Investment	Gross Return	Net Return	Eff. ROI	Annual Return
CKPT	10.0%	$10,000.00	$12,511.42	$2,799.24	-$9,712.17	-77.6%	-83.6%
DCTH	15.0%	$15,000.00	$18,767.12	$10,366.65	-$8,400.47	-44.8%	-53.6%
ETTX (*)	20.0%	$20,000.00	$20,000.00	$20688.39	$688.39	3.4%	3.4%
FGEN	10.0%	$10,000.00	$12,511.42	$14,833.05	$2,321.63	18.6%	13.6%
GLYC	15.0%	$15,000.00	$18,767.12	$49,123.09	$30,355.97	161.8%	110.4%
LQDA	15.0%	$15,000.00	$18,767.12	$25,333.59	$6,566.47	35.0%	30.8%
SIOX	5.0%	$5,000.00	$6,255.71	$1,825.04	-$4,430.67	-70.8%	-66.3%
XENE	10.0%	$10,000.00	$12,511.42	$15,614.24	$3,102.82	24.8%	26.2%

This portfolio was one of three that had selected a stock which was bought out during the course of the year, in this case ETTX. The buy-out price was almost identical to the price at the beginning of the contest, so this 20% of their portfolio was up to this point effectively a wash (a return of 3.4%). But this cash was then reinvested in their remaining seven picks. Because of the timing of the buyout, they were able to buy additional shares at prices below what they were at the start of the year (SIOX and XENE were the exceptions). This had the result that the effective ROI from choosing that particular stock was larger than the Annual Return of a stock purchased only at the start of the contest, and then sold at the end (Compare the last two columns of the table). This resulted in amplifying the value of his original 15% stake in GLYC from +110% to +116% return. GENEGURU’s owes his winning total return of +14% in the black can be attributed to their choice of GLYC, and having their remaining choices have a mix of winners and losers not far from the typical portfolios performance.

In contrast, our only other money maker portfolio, second place DIEGOSAN:

Symbol	Initial Allocation	Investment	Gross Return	Net Return	Eff. ROI
ABBV	12.5%	$12,500.00	$14,919.68	$2,419.68	19.4%
ALNY	12.5%	$12,500.00	$17,517.54	$5,017.54	40.1%
ARGX	10.0%	$10,000.00	$10,817.84	$817.84	8.2%
BMY	12.5%	$12,500.00	$14,424.62	$1,924.62	15.4%
BPMC	10.0%	$10,000.00	$4,090.19	-$5,909.81	-59.1%
ENTA	12.5%	$12,500.00	$7,776.14	-$4,723.86	-37.8%
FGEN	10.0%	$10,000.00	$11,361.70	$1,361.70	13.6%
PFE	10.0%	$10,000.00	$8,677.39	-$1,322.61	-13.2%
VRTX	10.0%	$12,500.00	$13,150.27	$650.27	5.2%

Six of their nine picks were winners for the year, but even their best (ALNY) had a return of only 40%, respectable if not quite as spectacular as GENEGURU’s GLYC return, but overall DIEGOSAN's winners just barely compensated for the three choices in the red, (e.g. a -60% loss of their investment in BPMC). Still, DIEGOSAN was one of the only two in the black at the end of the year, so they only faded at the end of the year.

As an example of a typical portfolio (we redact their identification and particular choices):

Initial Allocation	Investment	Gross Return	Net Return	Eff. ROI
10.0%	$10,000.00	$25,973.03	$15,973.03	159.7%
12.5%	$12,500.00	$12,961.31	$461.31	3.7%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$8,068.59	-$1,931.41	-19.3%
10.0%	$12,500.00	$5,722.89	-$6,777.11	-54.2%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$3,514.77	-$6,485.23	-64.9%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$3,422.69	-$6,577.31	-65.8%
12.5%	$12,500.00	$4,031.56	-$8,468.44	-67.7%
12.5%	$12,500.00	$3,666.67	-$8,833.33	-70.7%
12.5%	$12,500.00	$728.12	-$11,771.88	-94.2%

where they managed to hit one of the big winners in their nine picks, though the rest of portfolio’s losses overwhelmed this bright spot.

And for one of the most unlucky portfolios the results were

Initial Allocation	Investment	Gross Return	Net Return	Eff. ROI
10.0%	$10,000.00	$10,832.19	$832.19	8.3%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$4,687.50	-$5,312.50	-53.1%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$3,893.33	-$6,106.67	-61.1%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$3,720.00	-$6,280.00	-62.8%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$3,660.89	-$6,339.11	-63.4%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$3,214.29	-$6,785.71	-67.9%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$3,190.06	-$6,809.94	-68.1%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$2,751.32	-$7,248.68	-72.5%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$2,246.38	-$7,753.62	-77.5%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$1,851.85	-$8,148.15	-81.5%

where almost all of their choices were unfortunate, losing more than half their stake in all but one of their ten choices. Still, one of their choices was in the black.

Thanks again to everyone who participated. Biotech is hard to predict, as many of these companies are essentially research labs with an idea or invention that they think is worth pursuing, but not everything works out. Such is life.

Happy New Year!

[Arthur Radley] A great choice for our donations since my daughter and son-in-law have two rescu...

Arthur Radley — 1/1/2023 10:37:14 AM

A great choice for our donations since my daughter and son-in-law have two rescue dog pups—Louis and Luna. Winning twice is an amazing accomplishment considering the deep knowledge by some players.

[raju_bijlee] Congratulations! $100 donated

raju_bijlee — 1/1/2023 9:47:30 AM

[technetium] Feel free to repost your picks on the 2023 board. Subject 60334

technetium — 12/31/2022 5:22:11 PM

[technetium] $100 is on its way. Thanks for participating. ;-)

technetium — 12/31/2022 4:34:23 PM

[technetium] Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow youtube.com

technetium — 12/31/2022 4:18:23 PM

[A.J. Mullen] Twice in ten years is way ahead of most of us. Congratulations. $100 is on its...

A.J. Mullen — 12/31/2022 4:07:06 PM

Twice in ten years is way ahead of most of us. Congratulations. $100 is on its way.
!

[technetium] If anyone wants to, my pick is westendhouse.org

technetium — 12/31/2022 3:31:11 PM

[BulbaMan] Mazel Tov Steve! I just donated $500 to the Montgomery County Humane Society. Al...

BulbaMan — 12/31/2022 3:29:10 PM

Mazel Tov Steve!
I just donated $500 to the Montgomery County Humane Society.
All the best in 2023!
Peace & good health,
Bulba

[Jack Hartmann] Good job. I gave. Thanks for donating $100.00 USD to Montgomery County Humane ...

Jack Hartmann — 12/31/2022 3:22:42 PM

Good job.
I gave.
Thanks for donating $100.00 USD to
Montgomery County Humane Society

[geneguru] My charity is Montgomery County Humane Society mchumane.org I hadn't carefully...

geneguru — 12/31/2022 1:05:47 PM

My charity is Montgomery County Humane Society

mchumane.org

I hadn't carefully followed the contest this year, so my winning was a complete shock. I think that's my second win in ten years, among some very low finishes. Always swinging for those Biotech fences. Best, Steve

[technetium] The new board is up and running: Subject 60334

technetium — 12/31/2022 12:56:46 PM

[ErikOtto] Thanks to technetium for running the contest! Hoping for a much better 2023. H...

ErikOtto — 12/31/2022 11:48:53 AM

Thanks to technetium for running the contest! Hoping for a much better 2023.

Here are my 2023 picks;

CABA 15%
URGN 15%
DAWN 10%
FULC 10%
PRQR 10%
OCUL 10%
LIFE 10%
PDSB 10%
ICVX 5%
INZY 5%

Happy new year everyone.

Erik

[technetium] LOL I watched that video earlier this year with the same thought about the stock...

technetium — 12/31/2022 10:54:40 AM

LOL I watched that video earlier this year with the same thought about the stock market.

[Aloner] youtube.com

Aloner — 12/31/2022 4:31:03 AM

[raju_bijlee] Here are my 10 @ 10 ALLO 10 ALT 10 ATRA 10 BCDA 10 BLCM 10 FATE 10 IMTX 10 IOV...

raju_bijlee — 12/30/2022 8:58:49 PM

Here are my 10 @ 10

ALLO	10
ALT	10
ATRA	10
BCDA	10
BLCM	10
FATE	10
IMTX	10
IOVA	10
MBIO	10
TGTX	10

If my past performance is any indication, two of these may go out of business by the end of 2023...

Best wishes to all for the new year!

Raju_Bijlee

[Arthur Radley] Congrats to the two who finish in the green.

Arthur Radley — 12/30/2022 8:57:17 PM

[BulbaMan] Here are my 2023 Contest picks: ATXS 10% BFLY 10% FDMT 20% IMTX ...

BulbaMan — 12/30/2022 8:23:03 PM

Here are my 2023 Contest picks:

ATXS 10%
BFLY 10%
FDMT 20%
IMTX 10%
OMER 10%
PTE 5%
RFL 15%
TCON 10%
VOR 10%

In the very unlikely event I win the Contest I will pick my charity at that time.
Best wishes to the Biotech Stockpicking Charity Contest crew for a 2023 full of many joyful times!
Peace & good health,
Bulba
P.S. In honor of technetium I just donated $100 to her charity pick:
West End House
westendhouse.org

[technetium] Or I’ll have a new board up soon and you can post there. Any suggestions for a ...

technetium — 12/30/2022 7:59:02 PM

Or I’ll have a new board up soon and you can post there.

Any suggestions for a new logo?

[technetium] Either post your picks publicly here for next year or send me me a private messa...

technetium — 12/30/2022 7:08:31 PM

Either post your picks publicly here for next year or send me me a private message. Thanks in advance.

[technetium] And at the wire …. it’s GENEGURU running away from the pack. A detailed report ...

technetium — 12/30/2022 5:58:17 PM

And at the wire …. it’s GENEGURU running away from the pack. A detailed report to follow.

GLYC came through at the end.

Now remember, you’ve got only a few more days to get your new portfolios in. Next year HAS to be better. Special offer, submitters of portfolios for the 2023 Contest can request a YTD breakdown of performance of the individual choices in 2022.

Thanks to everyone who participated in this contest.

Happy New Year!!

		Report Time Ranges
			From	To
		Recent	12/23/22	12/30/22
		YTD	12/31/2021	12/30/22
Index Performance
			Symbol	Recent	YTD
			^IXIC	-0.30%	-33.10%
			^NBI	-0.12%	-10.91%
			^SPSIBI	2.71%	-25.71%
Share Performance
Recent Change as % of Initial Price				YTD
Top 5		Bottom 5		Top 5		Bottom 5
GLYC	52.778%	SNGX	-29.27%	MACK	193.09%	GNCA	-99.99%
PDSB	42.346%	AMRS	-7.58%	CABA	144.06%	PLXP	-97.95%
MACK	27.877%	RVNC	-7.05%	WVE	122.93%	CLVS	-97.00%
OCUP	27.346%	IPIX	-6.00%	FENC	118.18%	ATHX	-96.27%
VKTX	20.652%	DYN	-5.55%	CBIO	113.07%	OTIC	-95.81%
Top Ten Portfolios
		Top 10 Portfolio YTD		YTD(Portfolio - SPSIBI)	Rec	Rec(Port. - SPSIBI)	Rec. Change Total Value
		GENEGURU	19.89%	45.61%	14.05%	11.345%	$14774.05
		DIEGOSAN	2.74%	28.45%	-0.27%	-2.975%	-$274.18
		MOPGCW	-2.01%	23.70%	8.99%	6.277%	$8079.59
		BMAZ001	-11.23%	14.48%	12.01%	9.304%	$9520.49
		TECHNETIUM	-18.35%	7.36%	1.96%	-0.751%	$1568.15
		BRENDAN_49	-20.04%	5.67%	4.34%	1.636%	$3329.50
		BIO-TITAN	-23.39%	2.32%	24.81%	22.097%	$15226.73
		RAJU_BIJLEE	-24.77%	0.94%	3.46%	0.748%	$2513.83
		ROCKY9	-25.80%	-0.09%	5.19%	2.482%	$3661.71
		TAMBORELLI	-25.96%	-0.24%	11.53%	8.819%	$7653.70
Average and Median Portfolio Performance
	Avg Recent	Avg YTD	Median Recent		Median YTD
	$3,795	-32.88%	RAJU_BIJLEE	$2,598	JFM WINTER	-32.22%
	6.16%	-32.88%	RAJU_BIJLEE	3.901%	JFM WINTER	-32.22%

[Aloner] My 2023 Picks. I believe I came in close to dead last this year, so, I'll be the...

Aloner — 12/30/2022 4:56:18 PM

My 2023 Picks. I believe I came in close to dead last this year, so, I'll be the first to post this year! You may want to avoid these as my track record speaks volumes...
Thank you TECHNETIUM for all that you do to make the contest happen.
Here are my 10 picks, all equally weighted.

AFMD 10%
CDTX 10%
CLSD 10%
CRDF 10%
CRIS 10%
CRVS 10%
KZIA 10%
MGTA 10%
MRNA 10%
PRVB 10%

[Arthur Radley] Look at the east coast of Florida the tidal erosion is eating away the beaches a...

Arthur Radley — 12/30/2022 12:22:26 PM

Look at the east coast of Florida the tidal erosion is eating away the beaches and next are the condos.

I have submitted my names and I think he plans to consolidate and organize the entries and then create the website. Sort of fun to see how bad one can do in a contest and this year I'm looking at most of mine down more than 50%---one is down 80%.

[Steve Lokness] <<<<<>>>> We are use to rain an...

Steve Lokness — 12/30/2022 10:11:15 AM

<<<<<<But we all know that global warming is a hoax.>>>>>

We are use to rain and flooding here on the Olympic Peninsula but our recent tides were almost 2 feet higher than expected. Not inches - feet! By far the highest tide I have seen here at the house.

There will be a contest then? I have seen no messages - no hype. I'd like to enter after missing a year.

[Arthur Radley] Steve, send him a PM. Hope all is well in your neck of the woods and you and the...

Arthur Radley — 12/29/2022 9:09:36 PM

Steve, send him a PM.
Hope all is well in your neck of the woods and you and the family had a great holiday.
I’ve been reading about your area, the heavy flooding and power outage due to vandals. Tonight we are getting heavy rains sent from the west coast..we expect it will rain all night. Four days of sub-freezing temps and now 70 degree temps and local flooding. But we all know that global warming is a hoax.

[Steve Lokness] Ahhh? Where to sign up?

Steve Lokness — 12/29/2022 8:53:28 PM

[technetium] Investigation faults FDA, Biogen for Alzheimer’s drug approval washingtonpost.c...

technetium — 12/29/2022 4:43:19 PM

Investigation faults FDA, Biogen for Alzheimer’s drug approval

washingtonpost.com

“The biotechnology company Biogen and its regulator, the Food and Drug Administration, worked in concert, ignoring internal concerns from the company and skirting the agency’s own written guidance, to allow the Alzheimer’s treatment Aduhelm to receive accelerated approval and hit the market at a cost to patients of $56,000 a year, according to a scathing report released Thursday by two House committees.

“The “unusual” collaboration, which resurrected Aduhelm three months after Biogen had canceled clinical trials, unfolded through at least 115 meetings, calls and email exchanges between the company and the FDA in a year, said the report by the Committees on Oversight and Reform, and Energy and Commerce.

“The joint effort climaxed with staff from the agency helping Biogen draft a document used to brief the FDA’s advisory committee before it met to discuss Aduhelm on Nov. 6, 2020. Although the FDA often follows an advisory committee’s recommendation, it did not this time. After no member of the advisory committee recommended Aduhelm, the FDA changed course, allowing Biogen to move its drug to an accelerated approval process.

“At the FDA’s suggestion, the drug was labeled for use by the nation’s more than 6 million Alzheimer’s patients, even though it had been tested only on people with early Alzheimer’s and mild symptoms, the report said...

“… Aduhelm proved to be a financial dud, generating $3 million in revenue for all of 2021.

”In a statement responding to the report, Biogen said it had cooperated with the committees and “stands by the integrity of the actions we have taken.” Biogen’s statement also cited the FDA’s internal investigation, which concluded that there was no evidence of impropriety in the dealings between the agency and company.

“Biogen stuck with the initial $56,000-per-year price tag despite projections that the drug could wind up costing Medicare up to $12 billion in a single year. Other Alzheimer’s treatments sell for much less. A year’s supply of Aricept costs less than $8,000; Exelon, a drug in the same family, costs about $8,800 for a year’s supply; and Namenda costs less than $3,000 per year...”

[technetium] Almost nobody has signed up yet. GET WITH IT FOLKS! Thanks.

technetium — 12/29/2022 4:36:06 PM

[Arthur Radley] There had been no place to hide in biotech investing in 2022. Today’s report abo...

Arthur Radley — 12/29/2022 2:40:51 PM

There had been no place to hide in biotech investing in 2022. Today’s report about th collusion between the FDA and Biogen and their Alzheimer drug isn’t going to help.
How does it look for the numbers for those signed up for 2023?

[technetium] I own RVNC and am not at all happy that they are tanking AFTER FDA approval. :-...

technetium — 12/29/2022 1:56:11 PM

I own RVNC and am not at all happy that they are tanking AFTER FDA approval. :-(

[technetium] You never know! By a nose so far. :-)

technetium — 12/27/2022 11:34:24 AM

[diegosan] ACH! I've been dethroned. Looks like Geneguru has pulled it off. FWIW, if Fortun...

diegosan — 12/27/2022 10:27:13 AM

ACH! I've been dethroned. Looks like Geneguru has pulled it off. FWIW, if Fortune changes her mind, my charity is The Epoch Times.
Best of luck to all in the future. Thank you technetium for you diligent labors.
Diego

[technetium] Time next year’s picks!! I browsed the web for FDA PDUFA dates and fdatracker....

technetium — 12/26/2022 11:49:53 AM

Time next year’s picks!!

I browsed the web for FDA PDUFA dates and

fdatracker.com

popped up, and let me browse 2023 PDUFA dates for various companies with applications pending approval. When I tried looking at it again, it is behind a hazy paywall, and I can’t see the calendar. Oh well.

I searched again on FDA PDUFA dates and this website popped up with the same information:

rttnews.com

Depending on how you word your web search for FDA PDUFA dates in 2023, you can find PR from various companies, some including “updated” PDUFA dates.

During Covid, the FDA went all in on studying vaccines and tests for Covid, so many other things were pushed to the side, but I presume tht yt he FDA is catching up with the backlog.

Another interesting website is the calendar for FDA Advisory Committee meetings, as this is where the trickier decisions get hashed out:

fda.gov

Plus, look at science news. There is interesting research going on, but it is not clear when it will move from a Demi to industry.

[technetium] Things are far from boring in our penultimate report on the Biotech Values Chari...

technetium — 12/24/2022 10:16:59 AM

Things are far from boring in our penultimate report on the Biotech Values Charity Stock Picking Contest for 2022.

For the market generally it was a bad week, and the biotech composite indices were also down, but not as much.

In news of the strange, the big winner for the week, VKTX added almost 100% of it’s initial price, though this was not enough to break into the top five YTD performers. The reason for the sharp jump on Monday? Another company, MDGL with a drug using similar tech addressing the same problem, had announced positive late-stage test data (which I presume means something along Phase III studies), and were aiming to get an accelerated FDA approval. Unfortunately none of the contest portfolios chose MDGL, as it added 350% to its price. That VKTX’s drug was still in Phase 2b might explain the more “subdued” response. Second place CABA is continuing its upwards climb from last week, driven by the recently completed(?) $35 million stock sale. Third place WVE was also one of last week’s big winners (the biggest in fact), with this week’s performance adding enough to crack into the top five YTD list. For this week part of its increase might be due to positive indications in three boys in a Phase 1b/2a “Proof of Concept Study” to treat Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy. It took a while for the market to digest this result announced Monday, not starting this week’s rise until Wednesday.

In this week’s loser’s, the number one YTD performer MACK slid another -14% of initial price, on top of last week’s loss of -21%. It still keep’s it’s position as top YTD performer, just not quite as stellar as it had been only a month ago, with a more than +200% gain. A larger loss for BIOA-B.ST, another top 5 YTD last week, pushed it out of the top five listing altogether.

The contest portfolios general performance was in the black, with average and recent advances of +0.8% and +0.14% in the average and median returns for the week, in contrast to the negative performance of both biotech composites.

The top performing portfolio for the week was THEHAMMER, as sole holder of a position in VKTX and adding $8,172 to their portfolio value. In fourth place for the week, RAJU_BIJLEE’s added $3,666 to his portfolio as the sole holder of WVE, and breaking into the top 10 YTD list for the first time. Congratulations.

But the big news for the week is clearly GENEGURU’s ascent to first place in the YTD standings. Though they have been in the top ten every week of the contest, this is their first time as the leader, dethroning DIEGOSAN, who had had a lock on the top place since April 8th. But with only $2,100 separation between the two, DIEGOSAN might still be the final winner of the contest, depending on how the last week goes. It’s down to the wire.

		Report Time Ranges
			From	To
		Recent	12/16/2022	12/23/22
		YTD	12/31/2021	12/23/22
Index Performance
			Symbol	Recent	YTD
			^IXIC	-1.94%	-32.90%
			^NBI	-0.90%	-10.80%
			^SPSIBI	-0.17%	-27.67%
Share Performance
Recent Change as % of Initial Price				YTD
Top 5		Bottom 5		Top 5		Bottom 5
VKTX	96.304%	HPHA.DE	-20.167%	MACK	165.22%	GNCA	-99.66%
CABA	44.591%	BIOA-B.ST	-19.504%	CABA	123.75%	PLXP	-97.97%
WVE	42.038%	MACK	-14.066%	FENC	122.27%	CLVS	-97.00%
IPHA	19.956%	AKYA	-13.521%	CBIO	110.39%	ATHX	-96.44%
HROW	15.625%	MGTA	-11.537%	WVE	107.32%	OTIC	-96.30%
Top Ten Portfolios
		Top 10 Portfolio YTD		YTD(Portfolio - SPSIBI)	Rec	Rec(Port. - SPSIBI)	Rec. Change Total Value
		GENEGURU	5.12%	32.79%	3.12%	3.289%	$3184.09
		DIEGOSAN	3.01%	30.68%	0.19%	0.355%	$194.45
		MOPGCW	-10.09%	17.58%	-0.56%	-0.395%	-$507.25
		TECHNETIUM	-19.92%	7.75%	-0.77%	-0.607%	-$623.65
		BMAZ001	-20.75%	6.92%	7.56%	7.730%	$5572.94
		BRENDAN_49	-23.37%	4.30%	0.78%	0.947%	$594.12
		DEW DILIGENCE	-26.62%	1.05%	-0.87%	-0.709%	-$647.64
		RAJU_BIJLEE	-27.28%	0.39%	5.31%	5.475%	$3666.04
		HORSEINALFALFA	-27.95%	-0.28%	0.05%	0.212%	$33.26
		A.J. MULLEN	-28.66%	-0.99%	-1.56%	-1.389%	-$1126.96
Average and Median Portfolio Performance
	Avg Recent	Avg YTD	Median Recent		Median YTD
	$490	-36.67%	BIOSCIENTISTSA	$131	ERIK	-37.23%
	0.79%	-36.67%	BIOSCIENTISTSA	0.143%	ERIK	-37.23%

[technetium] Yes, good news.

technetium — 12/19/2022 4:37:49 PM

[Arthur Radley] MDGL hit one out of the park this morning—all the way from Fenway Park and into ...

Arthur Radley — 12/19/2022 7:22:42 AM

MDGL hit one out of the park this morning—all the way from Fenway Park and into Wrigley Field. Santa Claus came early to their investors—stock is up more than $100.00 in premarket.

[technetium] DiegoSan and GENEGURU, please post your preferred charities in advance so people...

technetium — 12/17/2022 12:01:53 PM

DiegoSan and GENEGURU, please post your preferred charities in advance so people can have their checkbooks ready before the end of the year.

Thanks in advance. Who knows, I could win this years contest, but it seems highly unlikely. :-)

It’s a horse race that may be decided by a nose, but HorseInAlfalfa is in ninth place, so is probably a dark horse unlikely to come in first.

No offense intended.

[technetium] An up and down week (ending down) for the market generally, due to (they say) in...

technetium — 12/17/2022 11:55:23 AM

An up and down week (ending down) for the market generally, due to (they say) inflation, jobs numbers, and fed interest rates. Biotech, on the other hand managed to have a more positive performance. The composite indices were up +0.3% (NASDAQ Biotech index) and +1.9% (S&P Biotech index). Again this week, the S&P Biotech did substantially better than the NASDAQ Biotech, which has not been the norm, as you can see in their YTD performances of -28% and -10% respectively.

The big winner for the week was WVE, up +41%, apparently on the announcement of a strategic collaboration with GSK, which by some analysts figures, might be worth up to $3.3 billion for WVE in milestone payments. (GSK is GlaxoSmithKline, which have deep enough pockets to make those payments). DYN’s +24% seemed in response to a number of positive analyst reports, though I’m not sure how positive the message is when the report that starts “There’s no doubt that money can be made b owing shares of unprofitable businesses." Number five for the week, CABA, up +22%, continued its gains noted in last week’s report, in response to a very successful $35 million dollar stock and warrant sale. On the other side, SNPX had a very bad week, -52%, though just before the close Friday it released a very positive report on results for a Phase 2 Clinical trail on their drug for treating advanced Alzheimer’s disease. Perhaps a more consequential loser was number five MACK, shedding -21%, most of it Friday. It is still comfortably in the number one spot YTD (+179%), though not the over +200% return of previous weeks.

This was another week when the contest portfolios couldn’t match the biotech indices, the median portfolio dropping -0.6% for the week. In the YTD performance, things tightened up considerably between first place DIEGOSAN, and coming up fast second place GENEGURU, their portfolio values now separated by less than $900. GENEGURU’s good week put them back in the black YTD. In percentage terms, RAJU_BIJLEE had the best week overall, up +13.6%. JFM WINTER should be congratulated for his return to the top ten YTD list after a 5 month absence.

Only two more reports to go. I hope everyone is having a happy, and healthy, holiday season.

		Report Time Ranges
			From	To
		Recent	12/9/2022	12/16/2022
		YTD	12/31/2021	12/16/2022
Index Performance
			Symbol	Recent	YTD
			^IXIC	-2.72%	-31.57%
			^NBI	0.27%	-9.99%
			^SPSIBI	1.89%	-27.55%
Share Performance
Recent Change as % of Initial Price				YTD
Top 5		Bottom 5		Top 5		Bottom 5
WVE	41.401%	SNPX	-51.704%	MACK	179.28%	GNCA	-99.66%
DYN	23.549%	BTI.V	-48.148%	FENC	125.23%	PLXP	-97.63%
RIGL	22.909%	ACET	-44.997%	BIOA-B.ST	119.47%	CLVS	-97.05%
HROW	22.685%	PRTC	-21.378%	CBIO	109.85%	ATHX	-96.40%
CABA	21.900%	MACK	-20.972%	PCVX	92.52%	OTIC	-95.67%
Top Ten Portfolios
		Top 10 Portfolio YTD		YTD(Portfolio - SPSIBI)	Rec	Rec(Port. - SPSIBI)	Rec. Change Total Value
		DIEGOSAN	2.82%	30.37%	-0.87%	-2.760%	-$899.84
		GENEGURU	1.94%	29.49%	4.29%	2.393%	$4189.18
		MOPGCW	-9.58%	17.97%	2.73%	0.838%	$2403.32
		TECHNETIUM	-19.29%	8.26%	-0.24%	-2.130%	-$192.26
		BRENDAN_49	-23.97%	3.59%	3.63%	1.734%	$2661.25
		DEW DILIGENCE	-25.97%	1.58%	-1.41%	-3.306%	-$1061.01
		BMAZ001	-26.32%	1.23%	2.33%	0.440%	$1679.28
		A.J. MULLEN	-27.54%	0.02%	0.22%	-1.672%	$159.63
		HORSEINALFALFA	-27.98%	-0.43%	-1.16%	-3.051%	-$843.85
		JFM WINTER	-30.08%	-2.53%	0.18%	-1.712%	$125.74
Average and Median Portfolio Performance
	Avg Recent	Avg YTD	Median Recent		Median YTD
	-$388	-37.16%	ARTHUR RADLEY	-$320	BIO-TITAN	-37.75%
	-0.86%	-37.16%	ARTHUR RADLEY	-0.595%	BIO-TITAN	-37.75%

[Arthur Radley] Has or when will the board for 2023 be opened for submissions. Considering this...

Arthur Radley — 12/15/2022 10:38:00 AM

Has or when will the board for 2023 be opened for submissions.

Considering this year has been a total disaster for biotechs, and knowing there are some long-time posters on this board, I wonder if some would like to share their largest disaster for a biotech they actually had money invested.

My greatest disaster was Nuvelo, where I got to know the CEO personally--he was a nice guy! Ironically, he became the CEO of another biotech (Global Blood Therapeutics), where Pfizer bought them out this year.
As for Nuvelo, they announced the failure of two clinical trials on the same day--------------down, down, down she went.

Happy Holidays to All!

[technetium] Another crack of the whip as we go from popping champagne corks to sad trombones...

technetium — 12/11/2022 11:29:15 AM

Another crack of the whip as we go from popping champagne corks to sad trombones. The NASDAQ Composite shedding 4%, and the S&P Biotech index off -7.2%.

As discussed last report, we’re now using my revised measure of importance for recent variations in the stock issues. Which means that we can take notice of CABA’s recent +27% gain, building on the previous week’s gain. Six of the other entries in the Recent Top 5/Bottom 5 are now visible. The -61% plunge of GOSS is due to recent rules on the Phase 2 study of their hypertension drug “fall short of expectations”. ESPR’s loss of -46% for the week is somewhat inexplicable given a press release this week described positive news from an ongoing trial. I guess the market disagreed.

The contest portfolios had a rough week, with the portfolio average and median dropping -6.5% and -6.3% respectively. Only ERIK managed a positive return (up $0.23%) adding $121 to their portfolio, thanks to a 10% position in CABA. The second place portfolio for the week, BMAZ001, was the other portfolio with a stake in CABA, cutting their loss for the week to only -1.1%, small enough to make it into the top 10 YTD portfolios for the first time, congratulations. DIEGOSAN lost less than GENEGURU so adding $1,500 cushion so that they are now separated by $6,000. Alas GENEGURU’s loss pushed their portfolio back into the red for the year.

I applaud all of you for participating in this charity contest, no matter how your picks fared. Keep in mind, the way this contest is structured, your portfolios are locked in from the day you picked them for an entire year. Since nobody has a crystal ball to foresee future events, which for biotech in particular can be extremely hazy, it does not reflect what you would have done to change your portfolio if you were managing it in real life.

I thank everyone for participating in this contest. It is for fun, it is for sharing ideas, and it will benefit charity.

		Report Time Ranges
			From	To
		Recent	12/2/2022	12/9/2022
		YTD	12/31/2021	12/9/2022
Index Performance
			Symbol	Recent	YTD
			^IXIC	-3.99%	-29.66%
			^NBI	-3.85%	-10.23%
			^SPSIBI	-7.25%	-28.90%
Share Performance
Recent Change as % of Initial Price				YTD
Top 5		Bottom 5		Top 5		Bottom 5
CABA	26.913%	GOSS	-60.566%	MACK	200.26%	GNCA	-99.83%
REPL	17.269%	ESPR	-46.000%	BIOA-B.ST	118.79%	ATHX	-97.10%
BTI.V	16.667%	DRMA	-26.063%	FENC	116.14%	PLXP	-96.84%
VOR	13.167%	AVXL	-25.375%	CBIO	111.12%	VLON	-96.20%
DCTH	8.645%	AUTL	-21.773%	PCVX	78.18%	PTE	-95.24%
Top Ten Portfolios
		Top 10 Portfolio YTD		YTD(Portfolio - SPSIBI)	Rec	Rec(Port. - SPSIBI)	Rec. Change Total Value
		DIEGOSAN	3.71%	32.61%	-3.26%	3.989%	-$3499.50
		GENEGURU	-2.25%	26.65%	-4.89%	2.358%	-$5030.29
		MOPGCW	-11.98%	16.91%	-3.21%	4.040%	-$2922.02
		TECHNETIUM	-19.10%	9.80%	-4.38%	2.869%	-$3709.13
		DEW DILIGENCE	-24.91%	3.99%	-3.43%	3.827%	-$2663.58
		BIOSCIENTISTSA	-25.41%	3.48%	-3.05%	4.205%	-$2344.91
		BRENDAN_49	-26.63%	2.27%	-10.58%	-3.325%	-$8679.38
		HORSEINALFALFA	-27.14%	1.76%	-5.75%	1.506%	-$4442.94
		A.J. MULLEN	-27.70%	1.20%	-6.86%	0.397%	-$5321.42
		BMAZ001	-28.00%	0.90%	-1.09%	6.164%	-$792.57
Average and Median Portfolio Performance
	Avg Recent	Avg YTD	Median Recent		Median YTD
	-$4,213	-36.77%	ARTHUR RADLEY	-$4,027	RAJU_BIJLEE	-37.58%
	-6.54%	-36.77%	RKRW	-6.301%	RAJU_BIJLEE	-37.58%

[A.J. Mullen] I'm with you: I can't see your charts either, Yahoo Finance is unreliable for l...

A.J. Mullen — 12/8/2022 1:42:32 AM

I'm with you:
I can't see your charts either,
Yahoo Finance is unreliable for low volume stocks,
and normalizing changes to the initial price makes sense to me.

Thanks for going to the multiple bothers of investigating a company whose stock price has behaved aberrantly, fixing it and explaining the fix.
Ashley

[technetium] CBIO chart on Yahoo: click on YTD or one year: finance.yahoo.com Compare to s...

technetium — 12/7/2022 10:53:30 PM

CBIO chart on Yahoo: click on YTD or one year:

finance.yahoo.com

Compare to same chart from CBIO:

ir.catalystbiosciences.com

This is not the first time that Yahoo Finance fails to follow finances accurately.

[technetium] It never really took off: astronautfoods.com “Astronaut ice cream is an out of ...

technetium — 12/7/2022 8:37:07 PM

It never really took off:

astronautfoods.com
“Astronaut ice cream is an out of this world treat. Originally developed for space travel, our creamy-sweet freeze-dried astronaut food will give you a taste of outer space right here on Earth. Prepare for blast off with our fun new flavors!”

A failure to launch, alas.

harvestright.com

“When talking about freeze-dried food with someone, it usually isn’t very long before a question about freeze-dried ice cream comes up. Any space-loving kid can tell you the reason everyone has heard of freeze-dried ice cream is because astronauts love to eat it. Also known as astronaut ice cream or space ice cream, freeze-dried ice cream was developed by the Whirlpool Corporation under contract to NASA for the Apollo missions. However, it was most likely never actually used on any space missions.“

[technetium] Someone who didn’t know the difference between points and percentages. It caugh...

technetium — 12/7/2022 7:53:12 PM

Someone who didn’t know the difference between points and percentages. It caught MY attention! ;-)

Hamlet:

"when the wind is southerly I know a hawk from a handsaw"

[Aloner] OK, I am confused. Did I miss the big M&A? You said NASADQ down 100%. What is th...

Aloner — 12/7/2022 7:19:49 PM

OK, I am confused. Did I miss the big M&A? You said NASADQ down 100%. What is that, a merger of JPL and Dairy Queen? Creating the new symbol? Ice Cream in Outer Space sounded like such good idea, but down 100%? Wow.... glad I missed the news.... jk

[technetium] BTW, can people see the graphs I tried to post? They worked when I posted them,...

technetium — 12/7/2022 6:22:32 PM

BTW, can people see the graphs I tried to post? They worked when I posted them, but now that I review my message, I can’t see them. :-(

[technetium] An invisible reply from Aloner…

technetium — 12/7/2022 6:19:39 PM

[Aloner]

Aloner — 12/7/2022 4:37:34 PM

[technetium] Well, here we are, just four more reports to go in the 2022 contest. I’ll try ...

technetium — 12/7/2022 11:33:48 AM

Well, here we are, just four more reports to go in the 2022 contest. I’ll try to do most of the wrap-up commentary on the next to last report, so the final one can come out in a jiffy, and charity contributions might go in before the end of the year, if that’s a consideration. (In the same way some scientists make sure that they are available for phone calls from Sweden in the first week in October, perhaps DIEGOSAN and GENEGURU might check the postings an hour or so after the end of the last trading day.)

Don’t forget, only 17 more shopping days until St. Sylvester’s day, aka New Year’s Eve, and your last chance to make choices for next year’s contest. For my cut and paste pleasure it helps if the submissions have separate lines of text for each choice in a format like “BBWT, 10%, The best little biotech in West Texas LLC” . By including a human readable stab at the company name you give a possibility to recover from from a garbled ticker symbol.

If you care to know why this report is late, check out the discussion after the Report.

It was a good week. Heck, I’ll even call it a very good week, if not the best, so there’s lots of good news *cheers and the sound of popping champagne bottles*. The NASDAQ Composite puts on a gain of +2.1%. That’s good. Their Biotech index is almost double that (+4%), even better. And, maybe best of all, the usually pokey S&P Biotech index took the ribbon with a return for the week of +5.8%!

Now, looking at the big mover stocks of the week we see ... GNCA up a lot more than +500%… eh. I wondered if other parts of the Top/Bottom five, less obviously insane than GNCA, are also not worth commenting on. My conclusion is that what we’ve been using, the percentage change “(<this week> - <last week>) / <last week>”, is too prone to emphasize the “wrong” stocks and miss some that we should have caught. For the Contest the goal should be to select the stocks making the largest changes in portfolio value, since at the end that’s what we care about. In dollar terms that is “(< this week> - <last week>)*<number of shares> = (<this week> - <last week>) * ($100K * <fraction> / <purchase price>”. If you assume that all portfolios weight each choice the same (say 10%), then the size of the shift will be proportional to “(<this week> - <last week>)/<initial purchase price>”, a dimensionless number This week the report rates stocks by both measures.

Here is a table showing for this last week which issues are now included or dropped when you use my proposed measure for what is a “significant" change.

Added				Dropped
Symbol	YTD % Change	Recent % Change	Recent Change / Initial Price	Symbol	YTD % Change	Recent % Change	Recent Change / Initial Price
ALDX	63.00%	19.414%	26.50%	GNCA	-99.36%	572.727%	0.54%
BRTX	-15.30%	30.827%	19.96%	AFIB	-72.43%	34.286%	7.04%
FGEN	16.88%	18.989%	18.65%	RNLX	-86.86%	33.974%	3.33%
HROW	43.29%	13.891%	17.48%	SEEL	-33.74%	31.148%	15.74%
BIOA-B.ST	118.64%	-8.560%	-20.47%	AMBS	-86.88%	-25.000%	-4.38%
OPTN	8.02%	-6.915%	-8.02%	NCNA	-65.34%	-14.948%	-6.09%
CGEM	-21.52%	-8.810%	-7.58%	DYAI	-66.81%	-11.765%	-4.42%

With only three stocks in both lists, they are clearly sensitive to different behaviors. GNCA a 570% rise in price only adds 0.54% of the original investment to a portfolio. A 10% position, an initial cash value of $10,000, nets only $54, showing how huge gyrations of GNCA are, in terms of the overall contest, inconsequential, validating the appropriateness of dropping it. In the other direction, ALDX this week improved its contribution by +26.5%, or $2,650 for an initial $10,000 investment, worth paying some attention to. But due to its prior substantial gain, this resulted in only a 19.41% relative improvement and not large enough to make it into the old “top 5”, and missing the recent announcement of positive progress with the FDA in approving one of its drugs. The number two YTD performing stock, BIOA-B.ST, costs its proponents -$205 for a 10% weight, obviously more important than knowing that if you have AMBS then last week your portfolio took a -$44 hit.

In conclusion, unless there is a clamber to continue with the old way, future reports will use this new approach.

In the YTD performance standings of individual stocks, I discovered an error in how CBIO was treated, so instead of being in second place with a +128.85% return, it instead slips to 4th place with +116.63 (*), if you include the value of the extraordinary dividend of $1.43/share. From the stock price alone CBIO’s performance would be a more typical loss of -39.82% YTD. The Ballad of CBIO, after the Report, gives the details.

Like the market generally, and the biotech composite indices, it was a good week for the contest portfolios, up +4.3% for the week on average (+4% for the median). All but 4 portfolios were in the black for this week, though most couldn’t keep up with +5.8% S&P Biotech Composite.

I now report last week’s dollar change to the top ten portfolios' total value. By this measure GENEGURU had a great week, thanks to a 12.5% position in FGEN and 18.8% in GLYC, adding $10K to their portfolio. They are now in second place and become the third portfolio that has had a positive YTD return. (DEW DILIGENCE was also in the black back in September.) The first place portfolio, DIEGOSAN, also had a good, but not as good a, week as GENEGURU, adding $6.7K. GENEGURU’s superior performance closed the gap behind DIEGOSAN to less than $4.5K, so small that the final weeks of the contest are a real horse race. (Third place MOPGCW is behind by $16.3K; still in the running, though a long shot). As for the rest of the top ten, this week produced some reordering in the 5th through 10th places. After only a single week’s absence, ROCKY9 has returned to the list, adding to the twenty one other times he has been in the Top Ten.

And now … The Report.

		Report Time Ranges
			From	To
		Recent	11/25/22	12/2/2022
		YTD	12/31/2021	12/2/2022
Index Performance
			Symbol	Recent	YTD
			^IXIC	2.09%	-26.74%
			^NBI	3.97%	-6.64%
			^SPSIBI	5.77%	-23.34%
Share Performance
Recent				YTD
Top 5		Bottom 5		Top 5		Bottom 5
GNCA	572.727%	AMBS	-25.000%	MACK	203.84%	GNCA	-99.36%
CABA	41.954%	XFOR	-23.333%	BIOA-B.ST	118.64%	ATHX	-97.18%
AFIB	34.286%	NCNA	-14.948%	FENC	118.64%	VLON	-95.98%
RNLX	33.974%	CDTX	-13.799%	CBIO(*)	116.63%(*)	PLXP	-95.84%
SEEL	31.148%	DYAI	-11.765%	PCVX	88.78%	PTE	-95.22%
An Alternative Share Performance
Recent Change as % of Initial Price
Top 5		Bottom 5
CABA	38.522%	BIOA-B.ST	-20.467%
ALDX	26.500%	XFOR	-18.341%
BRTX	19.959%	OPTN	-8.025%
FGEN	18.652%	CGEM	-7.583%
HROW	17.477%	CDTX	-7.551%
Top Ten Portfolios
		Top 10 Portfolio YTD		YTD(Portfolio - SPSIBI)	Rec	Rec(Port. - SPSIBI)	Rec. Change Total Value
		DIEGOSAN	7.21%	30.55%	6.65%	0.882%	$6687.39
		GENEGURU	2.78%	26.12%	10.80%	5.029%	$10017.34
		MOPGCW	-9.06%	14.28%	4.89%	-0.881%	$4238.97
		TECHNETIUM	-15.39%	7.94%	2.49%	-3.275%	$2059.37
		BRENDAN_49	-17.95%	5.39%	8.38%	2.607%	$6342.41
		DEW DILIGENCE	-22.25%	1.09%	0.39%	-5.385%	$298.56
		A.J. MULLEN	-22.37%	0.96%	6.40%	0.630%	$4669.41
		HORSEINALFALFA	-22.69%	0.64%	5.01%	-0.756%	$3690.75
		ROCKY9	-22.79%	0.55%	6.51%	0.737%	$4717.32
		BIOSCIENTISTSA	-23.07%	0.27%	3.57%	-2.203%	$2649.37
Average and Median Portfolio Performance
	Avg Recent	Avg YTD	Median Recent		Median YTD
	$2,890	-32.56%	TOMATO	$2,588	JACK HARTMANN	-31.90%
	4.30%	-32.56%	KMASTRA	4.011%	JACK HARTMANN	-31.90%

Post Script:

I apologize for the delay this week, due to the time it to took to learn the correct way to treat this year’s events for Catalyst Biosciences, Inc. (CBIO). Although only held by a single portfolio, CBIO offers some unusual circumstances (and entertaining press releases), and had at least three mentions in these commentaries before now. However, these mentions were far enough apart in time I didn’t connect some pretty important dots and learn that Yahoo Finance had completly misrepresented (and continues to misrepresent) what has happened, until this weekend.

It turns out that CBIO’s story, independent of the contest, is both entertaining, and educational. The following links, mostly to the CBIO corporate site, tell the tale:

See what the CBIO corporate site shows for this year’s stock price history:

Compare Yahoo’s price history with the earlier graph from the company web site.

CBIO Press Release: IP sold for (a lot of) Cash which is what makes the story interesting

CBIO Press release: What the Board wants to do with the Cash but this shadowy entity, JDS1, seems to have other ideas

The CBIO Board of Directors Lays all its cards on the table with a very frank discussion of what JDS1 is trying to do, and why

After vanquishing the JDS1 Dragon, the fruits of victory care distributed but it's the strangest ordering of record, ex dividend, and payment dates that I’ve ever seen.

Besides the official press releases, here’s an outsider's take on what was happening which shines a little more light on JDS1, (spoiler: “a convicted felon who was found guilty of 21 counts of racketeering, money laundering and fraud” seems to be involved.)

Unfortunately, it wasn’t until this weekend that I achieved complete understanding, and able to remove the errors in the spreadsheet, but this took a little time.

What follows is a recap of the evolution in that understanding.

At the start of the year, only a single participant included CBIO in their choices, BIO-TITAN setting an allocation of 10%, or $10,000. Yahoo Financial had CBIO’s closing price on Dec 31, 2021 as $0.914, putting 10940.92 shares of CBIO into BIO-TITAN’s portfolio.

Nothing much happens until the report for 5/27/2022, where CBIO went from $0.38 the previous week to $1.23, all on the Monday. I learn that the previous weekend CBIO had announced that AVTX had purchased certain intellectual property of theirs for $60 million in cash ($1.91/share). Our weekly report called out CBIO’s change of +223% from the previous week, which moved it into second place for the YTD performance, +34.57%. BIO-TITAN’s portfolio was number one for that week, up +24%, though their YTD performance was just below the cut-off to join the top ten . Later on their choice of CBIO makes a large enough contribution to find their name in the list five times in June and July.

Since CBIO was retaining some products described as under development, I naively commented that investors thought of the event as a way for a cash-strapped outfit to continue working on what’s left. I didn’t know that the Board had already announced a plan to cease active development, and monetize all the company’s assets with as much as possible to be returned to shareholders. I might have been tipped off if I read more of CBIO’s press releases and learned that the total headcount was down to six. The increase in share price of only $0.85 priced in just 45% of the $60 million, which was due in no small part from the market’s fear that predatory JDS1 would succeed in its proxy fight to wrest control from the current Directors, which was likely to significantly reduce just how much of the $60 million stockholders would eventually see.

I next noticed CBIO when writing the report up for September 23. CBIO had popped up in the big losers category dropping from $1.91 the previous week to $0.489 at the end of the report week. Yahoo had no news links providing an explanation, but this looked very similar to the way other stocks had when there was a split (or a reverse split). As usual for this situation, I googled “CBIO split”, which I expect to provide a link to a press release from the company announcing the split, its size, and effective date. Not this time. Instead there was a link to a site helpfully named “ splithistory.com”, which included a split on September 22 of 3803 shares for 1000 shares. (I erroneously labeled it a reverse split in the report but that’s not what the site said). I commented in the report what an oddly specific choice this was for the split amount.

I manually updated the spread sheet to reflect the change. Now BIO-TITAN's number of shares of CBIO increased from 10940.92 to 41608.32 shares (I split the “residual” 940.92 shares as well). To keep calculations consistent, I updated the purchase price at the beginning of the contest, and any other pre-split price, in the spreadsheet for CBIO, dividing by 3.803. The corrected purchase price of $0.2403365 gives the correct, increased, number of shares for a 10% fraction of the initial portfolio. The previous week’s price corrected to $0.5022, very little change to that week's close of $0.489, a small variation in the Market Cap. This is to be expected since splits (reverse or otherwise) are neutral when it comes to the market cap. Likewise BIO-TITAN's total return, and their position in the rankings were unchanged.

It was a few months later that I learned about the return of capital for CBIO in an extraordinary dividend of $1.43/share. Since biotechs were considered unlikely to be dividend payers, there was no provision in the rules for handling cash returns like this where the company continues to exist (as opposed to when a company is sold for cash). I frankly rushed my estimation of the impact this dividend had, and convinced myself, erroneously, that there was no significant effect on BIO-TITAN’s portfolio’s performance and could be ignored.

Last week I made a suggestion for a rules change that would provide for tracking such distributions, that is, reinvesting them into the paying stock. When revisiting CBIO’s event as an example, I now correctly saw $1.43/share should have produced $15.6 thousand in cash, not exactly insignificant. I assumed that the “share” in $.43/share referred to shares before their split, plausibly as the announcement of the distribution amount was before the date of split. But then I saw the distribution ex dividend date was the same day as the split! Could the order of the events been first split then distribution? Was it possible that BIO-TITAN’s gain was 3.8 times larger? But trying to understand how this all should have played out in the stock prices, I knew that that the distribution of this size, must have made a huge difference in the market cap, but Yahoo’s stock price history showed hardly a ripple.

Compare Yahoo’s price history with the earlier graph from the company web site.

Qualitatively similar, except at the ex dividend date there is no change to the market cap for Yahoo, but you can clearly see one in the company site graph. Believing the company, I had to conclude that the split is entirely bogus (explaining why CBIO never had a press release announcing it), not withstanding other sites, and Yahoo’s, on line notes and clear back correction to the price history before the “split”. It’s a mystery how/where/why Yahoo and SPLITHISTORY.COM determined that the price change on Sept 22 was a split. (By the way, the page for CBIO in TOTALSHARESOUTSTANDINGHISTORY.COM, from the same guys that did “ SPLITHISTORY.COM” said that before Sept 20, the number of outstanding shares had been 119.7 million shares, the split dropping the number of shares to 31.49 million. This describes a reverse split completely at odds with their reports and Yahoo’s price history.)

To unwind the split effects from the spread sheet, I went back to the original number of SBIO shares for BIO-TITAN, and changed the share prices back to where they had been. Now a change to the market cap occurs with the distribution, and it all makes sense now. I corrected CBIO’s YTD return by adding the capital return per share to the share price. As I note above, this shifts the value slightly compared to the earlier calculations.

In BIO-TITAN’s portfolio I used the cash from the distribution to purchase shares in his other holdings, exactly as if the money had been generated by the sale of CBIO. I needed afterwards to manually return the CBIO number of shares to its previous number, rather than the zero the spread sheet automatically set with a sale. This use of the distribution cash is different than the rule proposed last week for handling ordinary dividends: reinvesting the cash into shares of CBIO at the then current price. That approach doesn’t make any sense when the distribution is part of winding down the company, and turning out the lights.

So what have we learned? Yahoo sometimes makes mistakes, and it's a good idea to double check their take on events with what’s on the corporate web site. Also, stay away from situations that include JDS1, or any of its brethren. Far, far, away.

Until next week.