Silicon Investor - Investing in Exponential Growth

[doubloon] 25 years in the startup market has given me some great returns and some disappoi...

doubloon — 4/18/2026 8:51:19 AM

25 years in the startup market has given me some great returns and some disappointments, but overall my approach of buy early and hold for 2 years is unique to say the least, but the returns have been off the charts.. so I give you my latest favorite, a young startup company that bought a shell and is in the process of coming public. If you research this company bill yourself $1000. an hour research fee, keeps what you are doing in perspective.

Oh, the company.... just bought a $1.3 billion private company at auction for $17 million, they have an enterprise value of $62 million and a market cap of $17 million with a held at DTC of 470,000
Life Electric Vehicles Holding Inc. LFEV

Do your Due:: otcmarkets.com

[StocksHighALert] $AITX’s Sub RAD-G up to 14 companies now running pilot programs with SARA™ he Co...

StocksHighALert — 11/10/2025 10:30:11 AM

$AITX’s Sub RAD-G up to 14 companies now running pilot programs with SARA™ he Company's multiple award-winning agentic AI platform "These pilots show the industry demand for agentic AI.” Read PR: aitx.ai

$AITX #AITX #RAD #STOCKSTOBUY #STOCKSTOWATCH #TeamHighAlert

[StocksHighALert] $BLIS News: NAPC Defense Launches Grant Initiative to Equip School Resource Offi...

StocksHighALert — 11/6/2025 8:47:10 AM

$BLIS News: NAPC Defense Launches Grant Initiative to Equip School Resource Officers Nationwide with CornerShot Tactical Systems finance.yahoo.com

[StocksHighALert] Breaking News VSEE VSee Engages Philippine Health Leaders and Former VP Robredo ...

StocksHighALert — 11/6/2025 8:44:12 AM

Breaking News VSEE VSee Engages Philippine Health Leaders and Former VP Robredo in Southeast Asia expansion effort accessnewswire.com

[StocksHighALert] $BFCH expanded its seed round to $175K after investor demand. otcmarkets.com R...

StocksHighALert — 11/6/2025 7:07:48 AM

$BFCH expanded its seed round to $175K after investor demand. otcmarkets.com

Reads like one group came in with commitments exceeding the initial $150K cap.

Board approved a small increase in max raise to cover execution targets without over-raising.

Zero toxic convertibles. All restricted stock. All being done behind the scenes without any news flow yet.

We expect news flow to pick up based on all of this recent behind-the-scenes activity. Stay frosty!

Alignment matters — and this CEO gets it.

[Paul H. Christiansen] Some imprimatur for SoundHound (SOUN) SoundHound (SOUN) - Institutional Invest...

Paul H. Christiansen — 10/31/2025 12:09:48 PM

Some imprimatur for SoundHound (SOUN)

SoundHound (SOUN) - Institutional Investor Ownership Changes
Source: UV Metrics.com
		Previous Position	New Position
Date	Institution	Shares	Shares	% Owned	% Change
30-Sep-25	The Vanguard Group	37,324,921	43,457,569	11.6%	16.4%

[Paul H. Christiansen] Soundhound (SOUN) Price/Volume Data for August 8, 2025 Is this a precursor to h...

Paul H. Christiansen — 8/9/2025 9:50:08 AM

Soundhound (SOUN) Price/Volume Data for August 8, 2025

Is this a precursor to higher market values?

Closing Price: $13.55 Up 26.4% from previous close.

Volume: 206,653,406 Up 362.1% from average volume.

Both percentage increases are certifiably extraordinary.

[Paul H. Christiansen] A number of months ago I touted ENVX as my favorite stock for wealth creation in...

Paul H. Christiansen — 7/8/2025 12:07:21 PM

A number of months ago I touted ENVX as my favorite stock for wealth creation in late 2024 and 2025. The attached article suggests that my optimism for ENVX may finally be coming to fruition.

You can find the complete report in Yahoo! under ENVX News, but here are the first three paragraphs:

"Enovix (Nasdaq: ENVX) has launched AI-1™, a groundbreaking silicon-anode smartphone battery platform, shipping its first 7,350 mAh batteries to a leading smartphone OEM. The battery achieves over 900 Wh/L energy density, making it the highest commercially available, protected by 190 patents.

Key features include fast charging capabilities (20% in 5 minutes, 50% in 15 minutes), 900+ cycles in standard smartphone usage, and enhanced discharge capability for AI applications. The technology represents a significant advancement in battery technology, particularly for AI-enabled smartphones requiring higher energy storage and power for local AI processing.

With over $200 million in cash reserves and production facilities in Malaysia, Enovix plans broader availability later in 2025. The company has successfully transitioned from wearable batteries to the larger 1.2-billion unit smartphone market."

[The Barracuda™] You know they're issuing a warrant dividend on July 17th. How exactly will the ...

The Barracuda™ — 7/7/2025 11:10:29 PM

You know they're issuing a warrant dividend on July 17th. How exactly will the shorts pay that dividend ?

[JubilationT] Just the numbers and historical data shows PLTR is way overvalued...scary unless...

JubilationT — 6/7/2025 2:05:00 PM

Just the numbers and historical data shows PLTR is way overvalued...scary unless news comes out continuously of new contracts. And they have been doing that which keeps investors buying.

[Paul H. Christiansen] On May 14, 2025, CoreWeave reported 2025Q1 Y-O-Y Revenue Growth of 420.3%. In t...

Paul H. Christiansen — 6/4/2025 11:45:14 AM

On May 14, 2025, CoreWeave reported 2025Q1 Y-O-Y Revenue Growth of 420.3%. In their 2024Q4 report, CRWV reported Y-O-Y Revenue Growth of 544.4%. Both percentages were extraordinary, and the obvious question was whether or not that level of growth could be sustained.

As a partial answer to that question, in their May 14th earning release, CRWV Forecast that 2025Q2 Y-O-Y revenues would grow 173.2%.

A further answer to the growth question was reported today by Briefing.com:

2025-06-04 - CoreWeave in collaboration with NVIDIA (NVDA) and IBM (IBM), delivered the largest-ever MLPerf Training v5.0 submission on NVIDIA Blackwell, using 2,496 NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs running on CoreWeave's AI-optimized cloud platform – Briefing.com

This submission is the largest NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 cluster ever benchmarked under MLPerf, 34x larger than the only other submission from a cloud provider highlighting the large scale and readiness of CoreWeave's cloud platform for today's demanding AI workloads.

The submission achieved a breakthrough result on the largest and most complex foundational model in the benchmarking suite--Llama 3.1 405B--completing the run in just 27.3 minutes. When compared against submissions from other participants across similar cluster sizes,

CoreWeave's GB200 cluster achieved more than 2x faster training performance. This result highlights the significant performance leap enabled by the GB200 NVL72 architecture and the strength of CoreWeave's infrastructure in delivering consistent, best-in-class AI workload performance.

QED?

[Paul H. Christiansen] Nvidia - Nelson Huang, CEO of NVDA, recently was interviewed by CNBC. Here's a s...

Paul H. Christiansen — 5/7/2025 11:25:48 AM

Nvidia - Nelson Huang, CEO of NVDA, recently was interviewed by CNBC. Here's a summary of that interview:

Every country will realize that AI will be part of social infrastructure.

· NVDA will keep reinventing itself.

· It will be a loss not to address the China market.

· NVDA is always ready for shifts in government policies.

· Hyperscalers realize that they are now intelligence factories.

[Paul H. Christiansen] Palantir - In an excellent Seeking Alpha ...

Paul H. Christiansen — 5/7/2025 11:14:59 AM

Palantir - In an excellent Seeking Alpha 2025-05-06 research report - Palantir Earnings Review - $1.2 Trillion TAM by Noah’s Arc Capital Management, the author calls PLTR “the AWS of AI”. Given the incredible growth of AWS over the years, that’s pretty high praise.

[Fredman] I bought into Roku several years ago, after I went into an electronics store and...

Fredman — 4/4/2025 2:13:38 PM

I bought into Roku several years ago, after I went into an electronics store and saw that damned near every TV had on it 'Roku Equipped' signage, got home, and saw ROK was about $14 a share.

[Paul H. Christiansen] There has been considerable doubt in today's markets regarding the wisdom of sp...

Paul H. Christiansen — 3/27/2025 10:43:28 AM

There has been considerable doubt in today's markets regarding the wisdom of spending hundreds of billions of dollars on data centers and AI. Specifically, that doubt centers around the potential ROI from those prodigious investments.

The following HBR article helped me to dispel those doubts and has provided me with a more optimistic perspective.

2025-03-26 - Strategy in an Era of Abundant Expertise - HBR

(The following paragraphs have been excerpted from the above article.)

AI is changing the cost and availability of expertise, and that will fundamentally alter how businesses organize and compete. At its most basic level a business can be considered a differentiated bundle of expertise organized to accomplish specific tasks.

Remaining on the frontier of expertise in important areas is critical to any company’s success. Technological progress creates two fundamental forces that complicate that challenge.

First, the overall body of expertise in the world is constantly expanding, making it harder to stay at the leading edge in every relevant area.

Second, the cost of accessing expertise is constantly falling. Although that can benefit existing companies, it can also lower the barriers for new entrants.

We believe that the interplay between these two factors—the increasing amount of expertise required to create value and the decreasing cost of accessing that expertise—shapes companies and affects the scope of their operations.

We are at an early stage in the AI era, and the technology is evolving extremely quickly. Providers are rapidly introducing AI “copilots,” “bots,” and “assistants” into applications to augment employees’ workflows.

Companies that take advantage of AI will benefit from what we call the triple product: more-efficient operations, more-productive workforces, and growth with a sharper vision and focus.

[Paul H. Christiansen] CoreWeave is scheduled to have it's IPO some time next week - March 24 to March ...

Paul H. Christiansen — 3/21/2025 10:01:55 AM

CoreWeave is scheduled to have it's IPO some time next week - March 24 to March 28.

Unless you're a PhD in Computer Science, reading through the company's S-1 represents a significant challenge if you're trying to assess the investment merits of CRWV.

However, tucked away in the back of the narrative for CRWV's Business Overview is the following quote:

"Our recent raise of $7.6 Billion in committed GPU infrastructure-backed debt led by Blackstone and Magnetar represents one of the largest private debt financings in history and signals the confidence that debt investors have in funding our company to build and scale the next generation AI cloud."

That compelling imprimatur is a sufficient reason for me to add CRWV to my EGS Model Portfolio as of the IPO initial offering price.

[Paul H. Christiansen] SoundHound (SOUN) I originally learned about SOUN from a Briefing.com ann...

Paul H. Christiansen — 3/1/2025 3:32:16 PM

SoundHound (SOUN)

I originally learned about SOUN from a Briefing.com announcement that Nvidia had made an investment in SOUN. Recently NVDA sold their equity interest in SOUN, but I’ve maintained the 2,000 share position in my EGS Model Portfolio.

Yesterday (2/28) Soun released their 2024Q4 earnings report.

Select here for my SOUN Revenue Chart. I call your attention to two very significant numbers.

First, their year-over-year revenue growth for 2024Q4 was remarkably 101.5%.

Second, their forecast for 2025Q1 year-over-year revenue growth is an equally remarkable 107.5%.

That level of growth always piques my curiosity. Specifically, is that growth sustainable?

To answer that question, I decided to visit their 2024Q4 Earnings Call Transcript.

Select here for a partial reading of that transcript.

If you read that transcript, you might agree that the Actual 2024Q4 and the Forecast 2025Q1 revenue growth rates are very sustainable.

Based upon this transcript, SOUN is likely to remain in the EGS Mondel Portfolio for many months – perhaps many years – into the future.

[Paul H. Christiansen] ROKU There are several search methods that individual investors can use to disc...

Paul H. Christiansen — 2/16/2025 12:53:57 PM

ROKU
There are several search methods that individual investors can use to discover stocks with extraordinary growth potential.

One search method is to follow the lead of institutional investors. For example . . .

On February 12, 2025, Fidelity increased their ownership of Roku stock by 35.5%.

Whenever I an increase in ownership like this, an obvious question pops up: “Why?”

Before this transaction, Fidelity already owned 9% or ROKU’s outstanding shares, so why would they increase their exposure by increasing that ownership to 15%?

The possible answer to that rhetorical question might be found in a December 4, 2024 research report by GuruFocus:

Roku Seen as a Potential Buyout Target by Needham

[Paul H. Christiansen] Palantir – Making investment decisions if often helped by good research! S...

Paul H. Christiansen — 2/15/2025 2:12:33 PM

Palantir – Making investment decisions if often helped by good research!

Since launching my EGS Model Portfolio in 2018 Palantir has been in and out of the Portfolio several times. Most recently – on January 27, 2023 – I added 1,000 shares at $7.22. It remained in the Portfolio throughout 2023 and most of 2024. In December of 2024 I began to hear analysts’ concerns about PLTR being too expensive, so on December 5th I removed the 1,000 share at a price of $70.11.

Much to my chagrin, the market price of PLTR continued to rise prompting me to do further research, which persuaded me to re-enter 300 shares of PLTR at a price of $81.50 – doing so without much conviction.

Just recently, I read one of the best research report I’ve ever read - Palantir: A Pivotal Quarter That Changes The Whole Outlook – authored by Type F Capital in Seeking Alpha.

That report has convinced me to keep PLTR in the EGS Model Portfolio as a core holding.

Here’s an excerpt from that report:

“The business is well positioned to capture large parts of the enterprise software market, given that the solutions are not industry-specific, making the total addressable market as large as one can imagine.”

[Paul H. Christiansen] NVDA - There has been considerable controversy recently about the sustainability...

Paul H. Christiansen — 2/10/2025 9:21:09 AM

NVDA - There has been considerable controversy recently about the sustainability of NVDA's outstanding revenue growth.

CML Pro recently published a "deep dive" research report to examine that sustainability. This report is long, but it is perhaps the quintessential research report for anyone considering an investment in NVDA.

Here's an excerpt from that report:

"Even if some models (i.e., competition) become more efficient, the overall usage skyrockets – e.g., millions of people using AI features billions of times a day.

This means data centers need more total compute to serve all those queries. Also, as models get efficient, researchers tend to just build bigger models to achieve even better results (using the freed-up compute to increase model size until they again max out hardware).

In this scenario, Nvidia benefits because it sells the shovels for this gold rush.

Clearly, this supports my recent decision to add ten NVDA January 2027 Leap Calls with a strike price of $120 to my EGS Model Portfolio.

[Paul H. Christiansen] On Tuesday, February 4, 2025, I added the Nvidia January 2027 Leap Call Option w...

Paul H. Christiansen — 2/6/2025 11:49:40 AM

On Tuesday, February 4, 2025, I added the Nvidia January 2027 Leap Call Option with a strike price of $120 to my EGS Model Portfolio.

I was encouraged and comfortable adding this Leap after reading a very compelling NVDA research report written by Beth Kindig.

The cost of this Leap was $36.50 and 10 Leaps were added to the Model portfolio.

The breakeven price for this Leap was $156.50 and it offered 3-years for NVDA to reach that breakeven price.

I recently read an analyst's report on NVDA with a Target Price of $500.

For anyone wishing to know, the symbol for the Leap Call Option is: NVDA270115C00120000.

[Paul H. Christiansen] I apologize for the delay, but the Link feature isn't working for this file, and...

Paul H. Christiansen — 2/6/2025 11:32:45 AM

I apologize for the delay, but the Link feature isn't working for this file, and I can't "cut and paste".

Send me an email - paulchristi@gmail.com

and I'll forward the January 2025 chart with all 25 stocks,

[Paul H. Christiansen] On July 11, 2024 I created Post #1058 which declared that my #1 stock pick for ...

Paul H. Christiansen — 12/2/2024 1:13:05 PM

On July 11, 2024 I created Post #1058 which declared that my #1 stock pick for 2024 and perhaps 2025 was Enovix (ENVX).

Since then, ENVX has issued two important announcements.

The first announcement answers an important question: “Do any companies in ENVX’s target market have an interest in the ENVX product?”

Select the following to learn the answer to that question:

2024-10-29 - Enovix and Leading Smartphone OEM Execute Development Agreement for Mass Production in 2025

The second announcement is perhaps the most important. Whenever significant new hires occur at a company, the question that arises in my mind is “Why is this person, who obviously has a demonstrated record of success, leaving the financial comfort of a reputable company to join a company that does not yet have significant revenues?” The most obvious answer is that the new company offers a compelling opportunity. Essentially this individual is providing a trusted imprimatur for all investors . . . “Yes, this new company offers the potential to be a very successful investment.”

Select the following URL to read the news release:

2024-11-26 - Enovix Expands Leadership Team with Battery Industry Veteran Dr. Hongwei Yan

[waitwatchwander] Funny to see you responding here. The issue with agents is the phone (or whate...

waitwatchwander — 8/29/2024 11:11:38 AM

Funny to see you responding here.

The issue with agents is the phone (or whatever) does have to become you in order to act for you, Google knew this was the secret as soon as they started off in their searching endeavours. Some folks will allow it but many like you (and Apple privacy fanatics) will resist and not let their data be captured. In that case you will have to feed these agents whenever you want something done which really isn't that much different that what exists today. fwiw

How Well Can AI Plan Your Next Trip? We Tested Gemini and ChatGPT

tovima.com

ps This is going to be a big issue with Apple Intelligence. Hard for Cook to speak privacy when his agents are going to need all this data on you to act on your behalf. Keeping it on device has it's limits and it's all still going to need to travel through Apple servers to obtain the details of it's services. The AI Dilemma

[Elroy] autonomous bots (agents) will be able to complete nearly any task humans carry o...

Elroy — 8/29/2024 9:46:57 AM

autonomous bots (agents) will be able to complete nearly any task humans carry out on their devices.

These AI “agents,” as they are known, won’t need to interact much with people to get things done. The bots will be able to figure out how to accomplish tasks on their own— booking a flight, ordering groceries online or even playing Cupid—all without you lifting a finger.

So my phone may get into a relationship with and marry someone else's phone, and I won't even know about it!

[Paul H. Christiansen] 2024-08-29 - These New AI Bots Will Do Just About Anything for You – WSJ Readi...

Paul H. Christiansen — 8/29/2024 9:37:58 AM

2024-08-29 - These New AI Bots Will Do Just About Anything for You – WSJ

Reading this article (select the above URL) will help to dispel much of the negativity about companies like AAPL, NVDA and GOOG spending too much money on AI infrastructure. You might even conclude that maybe they're not spending enough!

When the next wave of artificial intelligence arrives (i.e., it isn't here yet!), autonomous bots (agents) will be able to complete nearly any task humans carry out on their devices.

These AI “agents,” as they are known, won’t need to interact much with people to get things done. The bots will be able to figure out how to accomplish tasks on their own— booking a flight, ordering groceries online or even playing Cupid—all without you lifting a finger.

[Paul H. Christiansen] I’m not suggesting that anyone invest in SSTS. However, there are some facts tha...

Paul H. Christiansen — 8/22/2024 12:16:47 PM

I’m not suggesting that anyone invest in SSTS. However, there are some facts that are intriguing and compelling.

First, there has been validation of the SSTS technology from high profile investors, including AT&T, Google, American Tower, Bell, and Vodaphone – each highly qualified to judge the efficacy of and potential for world-wide direct from satellite to cell phone technology.

Second, we have another day of Price/Volume qualification for SSTS. The total dollar volume for the two days (8/19 and 8/21) amounts to almost $2.8 billion.

I’ve heard the comments that the SSTS products still are not producing meaningful revenues and might not do so for at least several more quarters.

So, are the high-profile investors simply more patient than us “average” investors, or do they see an opportunity that we’re not seeing? The same might be said about the apparent institutional investors who have been driving the Price/Volume data.

One explanation might be that these presumably “smart” investors DO see the financial allure of world-wide direct from satellite to cell phone technology and that a company with significant buying power might acquire SSTS.

[Paul H. Christiansen] My #1 stock pick for above average performance for the rest of 2024 and into 20...

Paul H. Christiansen — 7/11/2024 11:38:54 AM

My #1 stock pick for above average performance for the rest of 2024 and into 2025 is Enovix (ENVX).

My reasons for selecting ENVX are illustrated by the following reports:

2023-04-10 - Celebrated Short-Seller Goes Long On A Battery – Forbes

2023-06+16 - Mixed Reality Won’t Become Reality Without a Better Battery

2024-02-24 – ENVX YouTube videos

2024-02-29 - Enovix Ceo - No Cell Phone Maker Wants to Be Left Behind, Everybody Wants It

2024-05-02 - Battery Startup Soars As Smartphone Customers Line Up – Investors Business Daily

2024-06-25 - Enovix Signs Agreement to Deliver High-Performance Batteries for Mixed Reality Headset.docx

2024-02-21 – Excerpt from ENVX 2023Q4 Earnings Release

2024-02-07 - AI-enabled PCs and genAI smartphones set to take off - Computerworld

[Paul H. Christiansen] Efficient Market Theory debunked by SMCI The following quote is from SMCI'...

Paul H. Christiansen — 5/2/2024 10:30:49 AM

Efficient Market Theory debunked by SMCI

The following quote is from SMCI's CEO in company's 2024Q1 press release.

Here’s the Revenue Chart for SMCI. Most companies would kill for that level of performance.

"Fiscal Q3 net revenue totaled $3.85 billion, up 200% year-on-year, within our aggressive original guidance of March quarter. If not limited by some key component shortages, we could have delivered more."

[Paul H. Christiansen] SoundHound – Perhaps a very unique investment opportunity for individual inves...

Paul H. Christiansen — 2/15/2024 12:09:22 PM

SoundHound – Perhaps a very unique investment opportunity for individual investors.

Many institutional investment management firms will not buy stocks selling for less that $5.

That may provide individual investors the opportunity to invest without competing with the behemoths of the investment world.

Just click on the following links to gain an important perspective regarding the investment opportunity presented by SOUN.

2023-11-09 - SoundHound AI, Inc. (SOUN) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

2024-02-15 - Company Overview – from May 16, 2022 S-1 filing

2024-02-15 – SoundHound Market Opportunity – from S-1 filing

SOUN Quarterly Revenue

[Elroy] What's in the model portfolio at the moment? Also I've just read all of the 202...

Elroy — 12/31/2023 10:41:29 AM

What's in the model portfolio at the moment?

Also I've just read all of the 2023 posts. Occassionally people ask questions, and there's no answer. Is this board for discussions, or just posting articles?

Thanks!

[Paul H. Christiansen] EGS Portfolio Performance Update – In Perspective For all of 2023 the EGS...

Paul H. Christiansen — 12/31/2023 10:22:29 AM

EGS Portfolio Performance Update – In Perspective

For all of 2023 the EGS Portfolio gained 76.7%, more than 3X the performance of the S&P 500.

Percentages don’t resonate with investors as clearly as dollar amounts.

If an investor had invested $100,000 in all the stocks in the EGS Portfolio at the beginning of 2023 (making pro rata adjustments for number of shares owned and traded), that $100,000 investment would have grown to $176,700 by the end of 2023.

[Paul H. Christiansen] Select HERE to view Year-to-Date Performance Chart for November 2023. Select HE...

Paul H. Christiansen — 12/2/2023 11:32:49 AM

Select HERE to view Year-to-Date Performance Chart for November 2023.

Select HERE to view Launch-to-Date Performance Chart for November 2023.

[Paul H. Christiansen] Select HERE for Salesforce (CRM) current Revenue Chart, including 2023Q3,

Paul H. Christiansen — 11/30/2023 11:28:45 AM

[Paul H. Christiansen] Select HEREfor a chart of SNOW's quarterly revenues, including 2023Q3.

Paul H. Christiansen — 11/30/2023 10:20:29 AM

[Paul H. Christiansen] Rule, Britannia? – Nay! – Rule Nvidia!! 2023-11-29 - Nvidia's Game to Lose – Ba...

Paul H. Christiansen — 11/30/2023 9:46:34 AM

Rule, Britannia? – Nay! – Rule Nvidia!!

2023-11-29 - Nvidia's Game to Lose – Barron’s

Every major technology company is chasing Nvidia.

Last week, the semiconductor company posted stellar financial results. Revenue in its latest quarter nearly tripled, with the company citing surging demand for its chips that enable artificial intelligence applications.

This year, developers have been clamoring for the company’s GPUs, or graphics processing units. They're well suited for the parallel computations needed for AI projects, including large language model training and inference, the process of generating answers from those AI models.

Rivals are racing to compete against Nvidia. Earlier this month, Microsoft unveiled its in-house designed Azure Maia AI Accelerator chip, which is scheduled to be rolled out early next year. On Tuesday, Amazon announced the next version of its Trainium AI chip. Advanced Micro Devices, Intel, and Google are actively working on improved products.

It's going to be an uphill battle for them all. Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis analyzed the September AI workloads from the six top cloud computing companies and found that Nvidia had an 86% share -- a figure that hasn’t changed much over the past year.

He tracked Alibaba Aliyun, Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud Platform, Oracle Cloud, and Tencent Cloud.

There are several reasons why customers don’t want alternatives to Nvidia’s chips, even when they face a long wait to receive their orders.

First, Nvidia has the most mature technology offering for AI. The company has spent over a decade fixing software and driver issues for its software programming ecosystem, CUDA. It means the company has already fixed technical issues that other less experienced vendors may still need to iron out.

Second, Nvidia is cloud-agnostic. Customers have the flexibility to take their Nvidia-powered workloads from one cloud to another. Rival AI chip offerings from Amazon or Google, on the other hand, lock users into their cloud platforms. That reduces flexibility to switch to another provider offering a cheaper service or better technology.

Third, developers stick with Nvidia because of its decades of platform stability, large market share, access to industry specific tools, and its reputation for backward compatibility.

“All the invention of technologies that you build on top of Nvidia accrue,” Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, said last week.

Then there’s performance. Nvidia still offers the best overall capability when customers assess the company's combination of software, systems hardware, and networking hardware.

Ultimately, developers want the technology that empowers them to build the best AI applications as fast as possible with the fewest technical risks.

It's Nvidia's game to lose.

[Paul H. Christiansen] Nvidia (NVDA). Given the recent extraordinary Y-O-Y Quarterly Revenue gains achi...

Paul H. Christiansen — 11/29/2023 12:55:38 PM

Nvidia (NVDA). Given the recent extraordinary Y-O-Y Quarterly Revenue gains achieved by NVDA, the obvious question is whether or not those gains are sustainable. The following interview offers a glimpse into the depth and prescience of NVDA's research, and why they continue to be a clear leader in AI and other advanced computer technologies.

cnbc.com

[Paul H. Christiansen] Nvidia Revenue Chart – Updated to include 2023Q3. WOW!

Paul H. Christiansen — 11/22/2023 3:07:42 PM

[Paul H. Christiansen] 2023-11-17 – Confluent has been added ($20.17) to our Model Portfolio Sele...

Paul H. Christiansen — 11/17/2023 10:55:32 AM

2023-11-17 – Confluent has been added ($20.17) to our Model Portfolio

Select HERE for an updated copy of CFLT’s Revenue Chart

2023-11-01 – CFLT CEO’s Comments – 2023Q3 Earnings Call Transcript

"I want to spend some time now focusing on a critical change we're making to drive growth. Beyond just the friction in the current market environment, the critical project for Confluent is to capture the massive market opportunity in streaming. This is a $60 billion market where we are still just scratching the surface of even the existing open source Kafka usage. And we have additional expansion opportunities from Flink, our connectors and data governance, as I outlined in the earnings call last time.

Critical to our execution against this opportunity is leveraging our go-to-market engine to rapidly land new customers, expand new workloads and ensure the adoption of our full set of product capabilities. To this end, we'll be completing the transition to orient our cloud business around consumption. This will make cloud revenue rather than bookings or committed spend the primary goal of the go-to-market organization for Confluent Cloud. This was a planned transition. Indeed, we began changes in this direction this year, but it’s a transition we’ll be significantly accelerating heading into 2024.

To explain what this means, let me start with a little background. In the traditional world of on-premise software, customers would make big upfront commitments. Salespeople worked with the customer to scope these commitments and were paid as a percentage of the resulting bookings. The marketing organization measured pipeline based on these commitments, and every internal system and process was oriented around measuring and managing the bookings that resulted. There was some misalignment between customer and vendor because customer might end up over purchasing, but this was masked by the fact that the rest of the stack, such as servers that ran the software, were also fundamentally upfront in inelastic purchases.

With the advent of the cloud and the elasticity and flexibility it offered to customers, this model had to evolve. Cloud has a utility-like model where services are metered as they are used. However, in the early days, the go-to-market engine for cloud infrastructure software largely remained as it was previously, selling customer commitments or credits that overlaid this dynamic usage. Alignment between customer and vendor improved somewhat, but the vendor still had an incentive to maximally scope customer commitments. Over the last couple of years, businesses like MongoDB, Snowflake, Datadog and hyperscalers have all transitioned their go-to-market to a fully consumption-based model. In this model, the customer and the go-to-market organization are both oriented around the actual service usage, not the upfront commitment. This fully aligns the customer value realization with the vendor's revenue. Less obvious from the outside is how this completely upends the sales and marketing model.

Pipeline is no longer oriented around maximum customer commitment, but rather new logos and new workloads. Salespeople aren't compensated for getting an upfront booking, but rather for what a customer actually uses, finding new workloads and driving new product adoption. This is an absolute win for customers and also a huge win for vendors, who are actually able to grow faster by removing much of the uncertainty and risk from customer purchasing.

With Confluent Cloud now at nearly 50% of our revenue, having NRR over 140% and continuing rapid growth, it's time for Confluent to complete our transition to this fully consumption-based model. We've already made the transition to usage-based pricing that bills for what is used. But today, our go-to-market is still primarily oriented around booking customer commitments."

2023-11-15 – Confluent (CFLT) - Collected Snippets from Briefing.com

Data Streaming Is Central to the Modern Data Stack

Data streaming enables businesses to continuously process their data in real time for improved workflows, more automation, and superior, digital customer experiences. Confluent helps you operationalize and scale all your data streaming projects so you never lose focus on your core business.

2023-09-01 - Canaccord Genuity began coverage on Confluent (CFLT) at Buy, $40 tgt; CG thinks investors should consider three key elements in the CFLT story: Confluent stands out in a rapidly growing, highly fragmented data streaming landscape. Opportunity in stream processing (Flink) could be as large as core market. Confluent Cloud's differentiated value proposition extends far beyond hosting.

2023-05-30 - Confluent: Data Streaming Hits the Mainstream; Category Leader Positioned to Execute - Needham; tgt $35 (28.71)

Needham's Mike Cikos notes, "Confluent Cloud has been constructed from the ground up to deliver a Cloud-Native SaaS offering that differs from hyperscalers' Cloud-Hosted solutions and provides cross-cloud flexibility. We also see Confluent's development of a fully-managed Flink offering as potentially mirroring Kafka adoption while deepening and broadening the platform. We initiate coverage of Confluent with a Buy rating and a $35 Price Target."

2023-05-16 - Confluent (CFLT) announced new Confluent Cloud capabilities that give customers confidence that their data is trustworthy and can be easily processed and securely shared. With Data Quality Rules, an expansion of the Stream Governance suite, organizations can easily resolve data quality issues so data can be relied on for making business-critical decisions. In addition, Confluent's new Custom Connectors, Stream Sharing, the Kora Engine, and early access program for managed Apache Flink make it easier for companies to gain insights from their data on one platform, reducing operational burdens and ensuring industry-leading performance. Briefing.com

[Paul H. Christiansen] Confluent (CFLT) was recently ($20.17) added to the Model Portfolio Select HER...

Paul H. Christiansen — 11/17/2023 10:44:46 AM

Confluent (CFLT) was recently ($20.17) added to the Model Portfolio

Select HERE for a up-to-date copy of CFLT's Revenue Chart

2023-11-01 – CFLT CEO’s Comments – 2023Q3 Earnings Call Transcript

I want to spend some time now focusing on a critical change we're making to drive growth. Beyond just the friction in the current market environment, the critical project for Confluent is to capture the massive market opportunity in streaming. This is a $60 billion market where we are still just scratching the surface of even the existing open source Kafka usage. And we have additional expansion opportunities from Flink, our connectors and data governance, as I outlined in the earnings call last time.

Critical to our execution against this opportunity is leveraging our go-to-market engine to rapidly land new customers, expand new workloads and ensure the adoption of our full set of product capabilities. To this end, we'll be completing the transition to orient our cloud business around consumption. This will make cloud revenue rather than bookings or committed spend the primary goal of the go-to-market organization for Confluent Cloud. This was a planned transition. Indeed, we began changes in this direction this year, but it’s a transition we’ll be significantly accelerating heading into 2024.

To explain what this means, let me start with a little background. In the traditional world of on-premise software, customers would make big upfront commitments. Salespeople worked with the customer to scope these commitments and were paid as a percentage of the resulting bookings. The marketing organization measured pipeline based on these commitments, and every internal system and process was oriented around measuring and managing the bookings that resulted. There was some misalignment between customer and vendor because customer might end up over purchasing, but this was masked by the fact that the rest of the stack, such as servers that ran the software, were also fundamentally upfront in inelastic purchases.

With the advent of the cloud and the elasticity and flexibility it offered to customers, this model had to evolve. Cloud has a utility-like model where services are metered as they are used. However, in the early days, the go-to-market engine for cloud infrastructure software largely remained as it was previously, selling customer commitments or credits that overlaid this dynamic usage. Alignment between customer and vendor improved somewhat, but the vendor still had an incentive to maximally scope customer commitments. Over the last couple of years, businesses like MongoDB, Snowflake, Datadog and hyperscalers have all transitioned their go-to-market to a fully consumption-based model. In this model, the customer and the go-to-market organization are both oriented around the actual service usage, not the upfront commitment. This fully aligns the customer value realization with the vendor's revenue. Less obvious from the outside is how this completely upends the sales and marketing model.

Pipeline is no longer oriented around maximum customer commitment, but rather new logos and new workloads. Salespeople aren't compensated for getting an upfront booking, but rather for what a customer actually uses, finding new workloads and driving new product adoption. This is an absolute win for customers and also a huge win for vendors, who are actually able to grow faster by removing much of the uncertainty and risk from customer purchasing.

With Confluent Cloud now at nearly 50% of our revenue, having NRR over 140% and continuing rapid growth, it's time for Confluent to complete our transition to this fully consumption-based model. We've already made the transition to usage-based pricing that bills for what is used. But today, our go-to-market is still primarily oriented around booking customer commitments.

2023-11-15 – Confluent (CFLT) - Collected Snippets from Briefing.com

Data Streaming Is Central to the Modern Data Stack

Data streaming enables businesses to continuously process their data in real time for improved workflows, more automation, and superior, digital customer experiences. Confluent helps you operationalize and scale all your data streaming projects so you never lose focus on your core business.

2023-09-01 - Canaccord Genuity began coverage on Confluent (CFLT) at Buy, $40 tgt; CG thinks investors should consider three key elements in the CFLT story: Confluent stands out in a rapidly growing, highly fragmented data streaming landscape. Opportunity in stream processing (Flink) could be as large as core market. Confluent Cloud's differentiated value proposition extends far beyond hosting.

2023-05-30 - Confluent: Data Streaming Hits the Mainstream; Category Leader Positioned to Execute - Needham; tgt $35 (28.71)

Needham's Mike Cikos notes, "Confluent Cloud has been constructed from the ground up to deliver a Cloud-Native SaaS offering that differs from hyperscalers' Cloud-Hosted solutions and provides cross-cloud flexibility. We also see Confluent's development of a fully-managed Flink offering as potentially mirroring Kafka adoption while deepening and broadening the platform. We initiate coverage of Confluent with a Buy rating and a $35 Price Target."

2023-05-16 - Confluent (CFLT) announced new Confluent Cloud capabilities that give customers confidence that their data is trustworthy and can be easily processed and securely shared. With Data Quality Rules, an expansion of the Stream Governance suite, organizations can easily resolve data quality issues so data can be relied on for making business-critical decisions. In addition, Confluent's new Custom Connectors, Stream Sharing, the Kora Engine, and early access program for managed Apache Flink make it easier for companies to gain insights from their data on one platform, reducing operational burdens and ensuring industry-leading performance. Briefing.com

[Paul H. Christiansen] 2023-11-16 – Nvidia - Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer reiterates Outperform ...

Paul H. Christiansen — 11/17/2023 9:59:54 AM

2023-11-16 – Nvidia - Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer reiterates Outperform with $650 target. ($) Briefing.com

[Paul H. Christiansen] Bloom Energy (BE - $12.23) – Contributing to the world’s need for decarbonizati...

Paul H. Christiansen — 11/14/2023 12:32:45 PM

Bloom Energy (BE - $12.23) – Contributing to the world’s need for decarbonization and the growing data center needs for electricity.

($) Bloom Energy Can Finally Live Up to Clean-Power Buzz – The Wall Street Journal

“Data centers can’t get enough power from the main grid… It’s good news for one California clean-energy stock.”

“These “micro grids” could solve a major problem for power-sucking data centers.”

Select HERE for a copy of Bloom Energy updated Quarterly Revenue chart.

[Frank Sully] Hey Paul! What do you think of the new AI Chip Wars prompted by US sanctions? In...

Frank Sully — 11/10/2023 1:05:46 AM

Hey Paul! What do you think of the new AI Chip Wars prompted by US sanctions? Include AMD M300 in your discussion if you like.

A year ago the US sanctioned high-end AI chips, sales to China targeting NVIDIA A100 and H100 AI chips, the world leaders. Shortly after NVIDIA began selling lower performance A800 and H800 AI chips which avoided the sanctions. Simultaneously, Huawei (a Chinese chip might. which is immune from sanctions) developed the ASCENT 910B AI chips. These are supposed to compete with NVIDIA's A100 AI chips.

Recently, the US tried to punish NVIDIA again with new sanctions against the A800 and H800 chips. One immediate reaction was the announcement that Baidu was buying 1,800 Huawei ASCENT 910B AI Chips. Today NVIDIA announced a new line of less powerful AI chips to sidestep the new US sanctions.

We should see the impact on NVIDIA's sales when 3Q results are released soon. It is likely that the immediate impact will be negligible since A100 and H100 chips are sold out till mid-2024. And NVIDIA'S reputation could help maintain their exponential growth trajectory with the new lower-powered AI chips substituting for the A100 and H100 chips in China. But clearly the emergence of Huawei's ASCENT 910B AI chips muddes the waters.

What are your thoughts?
TIA, Frank

[Paul H. Christiansen] 2023-11-09 -Data Center Growth Is Robust. 4 Stocks That Benefit – Barron’s ...

Paul H. Christiansen — 11/9/2023 4:29:45 PM

2023-11-09 - Data Center Growth Is Robust. 4 Stocks That Benefit – Barron’s

One of the stocks mentioned in the above article is Vertiv.

Select HERE to view VRT Revenue Chart

[Paul H. Christiansen] The ascendance of technology in the investment world. A common metric used...

Paul H. Christiansen — 11/9/2023 11:31:53 AM

The ascendance of technology in the investment world.

A common metric used to assess the success of a business venture is capitalization. That may sound like one of those enigmatic terms understood only by Wall Street regulars. In fact, it is quite simple to understand.

Capitalization measures the true worth of a company. It is calculated by multiplying the number of shares of a company’s common stock issued and outstanding times the current stock market price. In simple terms, what it measures is the amount of money that would be required to buy all the company’s common stock – and thereby own the entire company – at the current stock market price. Of course, if anyone attempted to buy all the company’s common stock in one instance, the forces of supply and demand would undoubtedly increase the current market value – or capitalization – of the stock.

The concept of capitalization will help us appreciate the ascendance of technology in the investment world.

In his book, The Four, Scott Galloway listed the five largest capitalized U.S. companies in 2006. Galloway then went on to list the five largest capitalized U.S. companies in 2019. The following chart is notable not only in the total dominance of technology stocks in 2019, but also in the Market Capitalization numbers. Except for the inclusion of Microsoft in the 2006 rankings, every one of the 2019 entries had total capitalization amounts larger than every one of the 2006 entries.

Select here for a chart showing the five highest capitalized stocks in 2006 and 2019:

Remember, the capitalization rate is computed by multiplying the shares outstanding by the current market price. Of those two components, the most variable is the current market value. In turn, as demonstrated in the following chart, it can be demonstrated that current market values are driven by actual and anticipated growth in revenues. As the following chart illustrates, the Tech Top 5 in 2019 were increasing their revenues at a far greater rate than the largest capitalized companies of 2006.

Select here for a chart demonstrating how and why the highest capitalized stocks of 2019 have replaced the highest capitalized stocks of 2016:

Stock Market Values in the above chart were taken from the opening price in 2006 and the closing price in 2019. It should be noted that Google did not register annual revenues until 2009, and Facebook didn’t until 2012.

[Paul H. Christiansen] Next Wednesday, November 15th, NVDA is scheduled to rep0rt 2023Q3 financial re...

Paul H. Christiansen — 11/9/2023 10:35:55 AM

Next Wednesday, November 15th, NVDA is scheduled to rep0rt 2023Q3 financial results. As noted below, when they reported 2023Q2 financial results, they forecast that 2023Q3 revenues would be $16 billion - an increase of 169.8% over 2022Q3. Both the dollar amount and the percentage increase should be viewed as extraordinary.

The resulting market price performance of NVDA will be determined by whether the company misses, matches, or beats that forecast.

Select here for a chart of NVDA's recent Y-O-Y quarterly revenues.

[Paul H. Christiansen] Select here and for Procore 2-year Quarterly Revenue Growth Chart Procore’...

Paul H. Christiansen — 11/6/2023 11:46:44 AM

Select here and for Procore 2-year Quarterly Revenue Growth Chart

Procore’s platform enables owners, general and specialty contractors, architects, and engineers to collaborate on construction projects. It offers Preconstruction that facilitates collaboration between internal and external stakeholders during the planning, budgeting, estimating, bidding, and partner selection phase of a construction project; and Project Management, which enables real-time collaboration, information storage, design, BIM model clash detection, and regulation compliance for teams on the jobsite and in the back office. The company also provides workforce management that helps contractors to schedule, track, and forecast labor productivity, enhance time management, communication with workforces, and manage profitability on construction projects; and Financial Management, which provides customers with visibility into the financial health of their individual construction projects and portfolios, as well as facilitates untethered access to financial data, linking the field, and the office in real-time. It serves owners, general contractors, and specialty contractors operating in the commercial, residential, industrial, and infrastructure segments of the construction industry.

[Paul H. Christiansen] Has U.S. already lost Chip war to China?–Semiconductor Advisors

Paul H. Christiansen — 9/18/2023 11:25:54 AM

[Paul H. Christiansen] Navitas (NVTS) - Good basic information - including Total Addressable Market (TA...

Paul H. Christiansen — 8/23/2023 12:40:50 PM

Navitas (NVTS) - Good basic information - including Total Addressable Market (TAM) estimates.

Just select the following link.
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About Navitas (NVTS) from S-1 filing

[Paul H. Christiansen] Snippets from NVTS web site . . . a healthy $760 million customer pipeline...

Paul H. Christiansen — 8/15/2023 11:09:16 AM

Snippets from NVTS web site . . .

a healthy $760 million customer pipeline.

“Navitas is driving next-generation GaN technology to enable a mass-market inflection point as GaN replaces silicon for power applications including mobile fast chargers, consumer electronics, data centers, renewables and EV / eMobility.”

2022-09-13 New York Investor Meeting