Silicon Investor - NFLX Moderated Thread

[TimF] Subject 52952

TimF — 2/13/2019 8:16:34 PM

[Mayhem] Is this board still alive or is there another NFLX board?

Mayhem — 2/13/2019 7:10:09 PM

[J.B.C.] NFLX has been on a tear over the last week or so. Earnings Thursday.

J.B.C. — 1/15/2019 10:19:56 AM

[J.B.C.] The bullish price objective for NFLX is $488 based on todays move in Point & Fig...

J.B.C. — 10/17/2018 6:48:47 PM

The bullish price objective for NFLX is $488 based on todays move in Point & Figure methodology. I can get on board that!

[J.B.C.] Up + $40 after hours on earnings.

J.B.C. — 10/16/2018 5:17:53 PM

[J.B.C.] Poor subscribers #'s, down over $50.

J.B.C. — 7/16/2018 5:33:40 PM

[TimF] ...For the survey of 2,500 U.S. adults conducted in May, Cowen & Co. asked, “Whi...

TimF — 7/5/2018 9:59:00 AM

...For the survey of 2,500 U.S. adults conducted in May, Cowen & Co. asked, “Which platforms do you use most often to view video content on TV?” Overall, Netflix captured the No. 1 with 27% of total respondents, followed by basic cable at 20%, broadcast at 18% and YouTube at 11%.

When looking at adults 18-34, Netflix’s lead is even more dramatic: Nearly 40% of those in the younger demo said Netflix is the platform they use most often to view video content on their TVs — well ahead of YouTube (17%), basic cable (12.6%), Hulu (7.6%) and broadcast TV (7.5%).

Among Americans who subscribe to traditional pay-TV service (i.e., excluding cord-cutters and cord-nevers), basic cable came out on top as the top choice for TV viewing on Cowen & Co.’s survey. Still, Netflix was a very close second: For those who subscribe to a traditional TV package, basic cable was the top response (26%), followed by Netflix (24%) and broadcast TV (19%)...

variety.com

[Ron] Netflix is testing a higher cost premium feed variety.com

Ron — 7/5/2018 9:44:06 AM

[J.B.C.] NFLX on a mini tear this week. Interesting info on the behind the scenes workin...

J.B.C. — 6/16/2018 12:21:59 PM

NFLX on a mini tear this week.

Interesting info on the behind the scenes working of DVD distributions:

The post office in their sorting for delivery notify Netflix of the DVD's being returned so that Netflix can put your next DVD's in the mail. This is a company not just sitting around.

[J.B.C.] What’s new on Netflix and what’s leaving in March 2018

J.B.C. — 3/16/2018 4:40:43 PM

[J.B.C.] NFLX Commentary

J.B.C. — 3/16/2018 4:37:37 PM

[J.B.C.] Everything coming to Netflix in February — and what’s leaving

J.B.C. — 1/26/2018 8:24:06 AM

[J.B.C.] Very strong week for NFLX. Seems to me than more than earnings movement.

J.B.C. — 1/25/2018 4:35:37 PM

[J.B.C.] Unusual: 1 day after large up day, with NFLX, usually result in a pull-back. U...

J.B.C. — 1/24/2018 4:36:33 PM

Unusual:

1 day after large up day, with NFLX, usually result in a pull-back. Up +4% not normal. Just sayin'

[J.B.C.] Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Destroys Expectations, Stock Soars Up over $24 in premarke...

J.B.C. — 1/23/2018 7:22:05 AM

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Destroys Expectations, Stock Soars

Up over $24 in premarket.

[J.B.C.] New and Leaving NETFLIX in January

J.B.C. — 12/29/2017 8:48:45 AM

[hollyhunter] Bullish crossover in KDJ and RSI(14) stands at 52.43. [graphic]

hollyhunter — 11/15/2017 8:25:58 AM

Bullish crossover in KDJ and RSI(14) stands at 52.43.

[J.B.C.] Earnings Beat: cnbc.com

J.B.C. — 10/16/2017 4:55:41 PM

[Ron] There have been lots of articles predicting the downfall of Netflix. Here's anot...

Ron — 8/12/2017 10:45:11 AM

There have been lots of articles predicting the downfall of Netflix. Here's another one:
barrons.com

(no paywall on this link for now)

[Mark Benson] Walt Disney will end its distribution agreement with Netflix for subscription st...

Mark Benson — 8/9/2017 7:51:35 AM

Walt Disney will end its distribution agreement with Netflix for subscription streaming of new releases. Disney will start ESPN-branded multi-sport video streaming service in early 2018. alphastreet.com/bite/3c4c4f5

[grusum] thanks for your thoughts. i thought shows like 'sons of anarchy' and 'breaking ...

grusum — 7/24/2017 8:05:02 AM

thanks for your thoughts.

i thought shows like 'sons of anarchy' and 'breaking bad' were excellent even though they had a sprinkling of political correctness here and there. but it seems that ALL the recent shows (within the last year) have been heavy with political correctness, especially homosexuality. for me, it's making the new shows unwatchable.

i know you'll be fine in the stock because you're quick on your feet. i'm just making a prediction that they're going to eventually pay the same price marvel comics has, by preaching to their customers. no one likes being preached at (no matter how subtly) and i believe they're making a big mistake. i hope they correct it in time because i like the idea of watching content with no ads. it's getting really bad when political correctness is being forced down our throats, even in our entertainment.

[J.B.C.] I guess anything is possible. NETFLIX hasn't had the best business sense, just ...

J.B.C. — 7/24/2017 7:26:17 AM

I guess anything is possible. NETFLIX hasn't had the best business sense, just see the DVD/On-line split a few years ago. So I'm quite sure they can screw up again.

I've watched a bit of their original content, for the most part it has been excellent. It definitely doesn't follow the formulaic pattern of mainstream tv.

On the other hand, cord cutting is in its infancy. That and international expansion leaves a lot of opportunity.

But for me, I invest thru technical analysis almost exclusively (Point and Figure Charting), Netflix is trending up, let your winners ride. Right now NFLX should be held according to what I see. Although i am anticipating sideways for a while here.

Jim

[grusum] hi JBC, i think what i have to say is relevant to the future stock price of net...

grusum — 7/23/2017 6:18:13 PM

hi JBC,

i think what i have to say is relevant to the future stock price of netflix. i think they're doing several things wrong, and some BIG things right. they are producing their own content, which is a really powerful way to grow. and i've been using netflix for years. but for about the last 3 years they've been increasing the homosexuality and feminism content. i believe it's out of political correctness, and like marvel comics, i think it ultimately hurts their business.

they also treat their users like customers in a casino designed to be difficult to navigate. they hope to keep people in their casino longer that way. it works, but in the process, it also pisses off their customers. it wound up hurting their business so they stopped the confusing layout. in the same way, the interface of netflix could be much cleaner and more efficient. maybe clean it up as their content continues to build. i think they'd be wise to do so.

the big problem as i see it is that the content is going downhill. i have nothing against gays, but i don't like to see homosexuality on tv. i never went to see 'brokeback mountain' for that reason. i may be in a minority on the issue, but why drive away ANY of their customers, like marvel comics has done? when i was a kid marvel never angered anyone. all they tried to come up with was good stories. now their business is in the tank because of their political correctness. the past 3 or 4 years netflix has started doing the same thing.

i'm just wondering if you think netflix is going to eventually cut their own throat in the name of political correctness.

[J.B.C.] On watch for clear above 163.55. That will be in our rear-view mirror at the o...

J.B.C. — 7/18/2017 8:37:12 AM

On watch for clear above 163.55.

That will be in our rear-view mirror at the open.

[hollyhunter] On watch for clear above 163.55. [graphic]

hollyhunter — 7/18/2017 8:23:17 AM

On watch for clear above 163.55.

[J.B.C.] NFLX up + $11 in AH trading.

J.B.C. — 7/17/2017 4:10:37 PM

[Intelim] What did I just read?

Intelim — 3/2/2017 3:30:38 PM

[FJB] NETFLIX BOSS: Future audience may be AI lifeforms... ???

FJB — 2/27/2017 5:58:41 PM

[J.B.C.] Yesterday I wrote some covered calls for June. TWT. I think I'll let what I wr...

J.B.C. — 1/20/2017 7:17:55 PM

Yesterday I wrote some covered calls for June. TWT. I think I'll let what I wrote go. Too large a part of my portfolio.

[J.B.C.] More TV networks follow Netflix to binge-watching model TV networks follow Netf...

J.B.C. — 1/20/2017 7:16:03 PM

More TV networks follow Netflix to binge-watching model

TV networks follow Netflix to binge-watching model
01:28

By Lisa Richwine | LOS ANGELES
Traditional TV networks are following Netflix Inc's ( NFLX.O) lead by releasing all new episodes of a series at the same time, a step to win over binge viewers who do not want to wait a week for the next installment.

The move poses a direct challenge to Netflix and a way for more traditional networks to reach for younger, digital-savvy consumers who insist on watching on their own schedules.

Walt Disney Co ( DIS.N) network Freeform, which targets a younger audience, put the entire 10-episode season of new sci-fi drama "Beyond" on digital and on-demand platforms on Jan. 2, a first for the channel. By Jan. 10, it was ready to order a second season.

"There are moments when it's really hard to make a decision about a pickup," Freeform President Tom Ascheim said, announcing the renewal at a Television Critics Association event. "This is not one of those moments."

Roughly 14 million people watched "Beyond" on TV and online during the first week. About 745,000 have finished the season on various platforms, the network said.

In its earnings report this week, Netflix highlighted growing competition from rivals that are adopting the strategy. Britain's BBC, for example, announced earlier this month it would distribute full seasons of major series on its digital platform before the episodes run on traditional linear television.

FILE PHOTO -- The Netflix logo is pictured on a television in this illustration photograph taken in Encinitas, California, U.S., January 18, 2017. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo

"We presume HBO is not far behind the BBC," Netflix added. A spokesman for HBO, owned by Time Warner Inc ( TWX.N), had no comment.

"In short, it's becoming an internet TV world, which presents both challenges and opportunities for Netflix as we strive to earn screen time," Netflix said.

Netflix popularized binge viewing with the 2013 release of the entire season of "House of Cards." The company's monthly subscription service reached 94 million customers at the end of 2016, it said on Wednesday.

Comcast Corp's ( CMCSA.O) NBC became the first U.S. broadcast network to try the release-at-once idea in 2015 when it put 13 episodes of drama "Aquarius" online right after the premiere aired on TV.

NBC Entertainment Chairman Bob Greenblatt said shortly after the experiment that he would consider it again for the occasional show but it would not become standard practice.

The tactic is not popular with affiliate stations, Greenblatt said at the time.

ALSO IN TECHNOLOGY NEWS Apple files $1 billion lawsuit against chip supplier Qualcomm Amazon's Dash button goes online
But advertisers see some advantages to the release of entire seasons in one batch, said Andy Donchin, chief investment officer at Dentsu Aegis Network.

"If people want to binge view like that and they seek it out, they are probably highly engaged viewers," Donchin said. "If you’re engaged in the program, hopefully you’ll be just as engaged with the commercials."

Still there are tradeoffs, Wible said. When people are watching bingeable shows at their own pace, the shows miss out on the conversations that happen when a big plot development is watched by everyone at the same time, such as the famous "Red Wedding" episode of HBO's "Game of Thrones."

"You do lose out on the buzz," Wible said. "I think it takes longer to gain momentum."

[J.B.C.] Today: New Closing high New All time high Stock up ~ $10 in AH tr...

J.B.C. — 1/18/2017 4:23:26 PM

Today: New Closing high
New All time high

Stock up ~ $10 in AH trading.

[J.B.C.] 144.00 ...

J.B.C. — 1/18/2017 4:20:42 PM

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[J.B.C.] NFLX reports today after the bell. The stock has been bullish recently. When ...

J.B.C. — 1/18/2017 9:45:43 AM

NFLX reports today after the bell. The stock has been bullish recently. When I'm able I'll post the P&F chart.

Jim

[Sr K] Message 30842352 epicure wrote, to recommend "Case": We are watching "Case" a ...

Sr K — 11/15/2016 11:17:21 PM

Message 30842352

epicure wrote, to recommend "Case":

We are watching "Case" a new Icelandic series on Netflix. It's very good- and pretty complex. One of those multi storyline mysteries. I highly recommend it- and listening to the Icelandic language is fun too.

[Intelim] All the more reason to look forward to it!

Intelim — 10/18/2016 2:14:34 PM

[J.B.C.] If I remember, 4th qtr is usually the best (post Christmas).

J.B.C. — 10/18/2016 2:12:05 PM

[Intelim] Remarkable earnings from Netflix this time around. Looking forward to the 4th qu...

Intelim — 10/18/2016 2:09:35 PM

Remarkable earnings from Netflix this time around. Looking forward to the 4th quarter.

[J.B.C.] Netflix shares explode higher after earnings smash expectations Yahoo Finance V...

J.B.C. — 10/17/2016 5:02:05 PM

Netflix shares explode higher after earnings smash expectations

Yahoo Finance Video•October 17, 2016

Netflix’s highly anticipated third-quarter earnings report smoked expectations, causing the stock to shoot up 20% in after-hours trading.

[J.B.C.] NETFLIX takeover Rumors: variety.com Fortunately I uncovered all my calls agai...

J.B.C. — 10/5/2016 9:02:50 AM

NETFLIX takeover Rumors:

variety.com

Fortunately I uncovered all my calls against the stock. Made a little on the January 110's, lost a little on the December 100's. Verses the recent stock action, it looks like the better bet right now. Let's see where NFLX goes.

[J.B.C.] NOW they're upset?...--gg

J.B.C. — 9/15/2016 12:39:34 PM

[FJB] NETFLIX Backlash: Hollywood Fears Content Monopoly... The streaming service is ...

FJB — 9/15/2016 11:00:21 AM

NETFLIX Backlash: Hollywood Fears Content Monopoly...

The streaming service is spending $6 billion a year on content, choking basic cable and brusquely rattling the relationship business of the town as fears of a Google- or Apple-sized dominance send a chill down the entertainment industry's spine.

[J.B.C.] This is destined for failure, no one is buying the BS anymore: Bill Nye Land...

J.B.C. — 9/1/2016 10:10:26 AM

This is destined for failure, no one is buying the BS anymore:

Bill Nye Lands Netflix Talk Show © Provided by Variety Scientist Bill Nye has landed a new Netflix talk show set to launch in spring 2017, the streaming network announced Wednesday. “Bill Nye Saves the World” will explore science and its impact on politics, society and pop culture.

Each episode of the series will tackle a topic from a scientific point of view, dispelling myths, and refuting anti-scientific claims that may be espoused by politicians, religious leaders or titans of industry.

“Bill Nye Saves the World” marks Nye’s long-awaited return to TV since first emerging as a household name in the 1990s as the creator and star of the Emmy award-winning syndicated television show “Bill Nye the Science Guy,” which ran for five seasons and introduced millennial audiences to science and engineering.

“Since the start of the ‘Science Guy’ show, I’ve been on a mission to change the world by getting people everywhere excited about the fundamental ideas in science,” said Nye. “Today, I’m excited to be working with Netflix on a new show, where we’ll discuss the complex scientific issues facing us today, with episodes on vaccinations, genetically modified foods and climate change. With the right science and good writing, we’ll do our best to enlighten and entertain our audience. And, perhaps we’ll change the world a little.”

“Bill Nye Saves the World” is produced for Netflix by Bunim/Murray Productions. Gil Goldschein and Julie Pizzi serve as executive producers for Bunim/Murray Productions. Michael Naidus (“The Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson”) serves as showrunner and executive pproducer. Writer and standup comedian Mike Drucker serves as Head Comedy Writer; and, astronomer, author and award-winning science communicator Phil Plait serves as Head Science Writer.

[J.B.C.] Spiraling...nah If the stock doesn't print 84, the 2-point chart in Point & Fig...

J.B.C. — 7/19/2016 11:00:02 AM

Spiraling...nah

If the stock doesn't print 84, the 2-point chart in Point & Figure is starting to form a pretty good base here. My CC's looking good. They're December and January expiration s. Buy back and re-write later or let these accrue more time value.

Lather-rinse-repeat.

[FJB] Netflix Sub Slowdown Sends Stock Spiraling [graphic] [graphic] By MARI SILBEY...

FJB — 7/19/2016 6:59:16 AM

Netflix Sub Slowdown Sends Stock Spiraling

By MARI SILBEY, Senior Editor, Cable/Video, 7/19/2016

Despite beating earnings forecasts for the second quarter, Netflix saw its stock tank after hours on Monday -- down as much as 16% -- on news that the company badly missed revenue and subscriber targets.

Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX) reported earnings per share of 9 cents, well above its EPS prediction of 2 cents per share. However, total revenues came in at $1.97 billion for the quarter, below analyst forecasts of $2.1 to $2.2 billion. And Netflix added only 1.7 million new subscribers in Q2, which was nowhere near the company's estimate of 2.5 million subscriber additions.

In a subdued quarterly earnings call, Netflix executives blamed poor subscriber growth on the company's continuing effort to move customers away from grandfathered pricing plans. CEO Reed Hastings suggested that "un-grandfathering" was perceived by the public as an overall price increase which boosted customer churn. As evidence, he cited a particular uptick in churn immediately following press reports that older pricing plans were being phased out. Hastings added that he doesn't believe the company's slower growth is a result of market saturation, noting that gross additions are still healthy, and that increased churn in the quarter took place even in markets like Canada where competition from other over-the-top services is limited...

[Ron] Netflix drops after hours on earnings and growth forecasts. As of now, trading a...

Ron — 7/18/2016 5:14:12 PM

Netflix drops after hours on earnings and growth forecasts. As of now, trading around $84.25.
blogs.marketwatch.com

[vicor] Should the market continue moving up encouraged by todays' new historical high ...

vicor — 7/11/2016 7:33:57 PM

Should the market continue moving up encouraged by todays' new historical high on the S&P 500, it pay bring new Bulls to the NFLX stocks as well. Otherwise, should NFLX drop to $84-85 it may not bounce up for the fifth time:

chart courtesy of marketvolume.com

[FJB] Court rules sharing your Netflix password is a federal crime A federal court in...

FJB — 7/10/2016 3:23:46 PM

Court rules sharing your Netflix password is a federal crime

A federal court in California has ruled that sharing your password for your Netflix, HBO Go and other streaming accounts is a violation of the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act.

news10.com

[J.B.C.] Disclosure: I currently have covered calls written against all of my NFLX posit...

J.B.C. — 7/10/2016 9:14:43 AM

Disclosure:

I currently have covered calls written against all of my NFLX positions. December and January expirations.

[Intelim] Are you underestimating the power of fixed bugs? How dare you? NFLX is slowly be...

Intelim — 5/30/2016 12:18:37 PM

Are you underestimating the power of fixed bugs? How dare you? NFLX is slowly becoming boring and tiresome to follow :/

[Sr K] The Netflix App on Amazon TV has been updated again, now dated May 25, 2016. I...

Sr K — 5/28/2016 11:32:43 PM

The Netflix App on Amazon TV has been updated again, now dated May 25, 2016.

It says
Bug fixes.