Silicon Investor - AMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA

[Joe NYC] [X] AMD Venice vs NVIDIA Vera vs intel GNR-AP https://t.co/UJ48L6Vfoopic.twitte...

Joe NYC — 6/9/2026 11:56:17 PM

[X]

AMD Venice vs NVIDIA Vera vs intel GNR-AP https://t.co/UJ48L6Vfoo pic.twitter.com/kDYNHUFell
— HXL (@9550pro) June 10, 2026

[/X]

[THE WATSONYOUTH] Vintage Sci Fi / Horror [youtube video] The Dark Secret of Harvest Home (1978)...

THE WATSONYOUTH — 6/9/2026 8:29:01 PM

Vintage Sci Fi / Horror

The Dark Secret of Harvest Home (1978) Bette Davis

[Joe NYC] re: Oh dear. lol. unlike us, she probably has ~60 year investment time frame....

Joe NYC — 6/9/2026 4:19:28 PM

re: Oh dear.

lol. unlike us, she probably has ~60 year investment time frame...

[Pravin Kamdar] BTW, my younger daughter requested 2 shares :-) from her Robin Hood account. Oh...

Pravin Kamdar — 6/9/2026 4:01:05 PM

BTW, my younger daughter requested 2 shares :-) from her Robin Hood account.

Oh dear.

[Joe NYC] I am pretty sure it will be reduced because it will be oversuscribed. BTW, my y...

Joe NYC — 6/9/2026 3:54:47 PM

I am pretty sure it will be reduced because it will be oversuscribed.

BTW, my younger daughter requested 2 shares :-) from her Robin Hood account.

[neolib] Yeah, its the end users paying for it that I can't see. The even bigger issue i...

neolib — 6/9/2026 1:24:51 PM

Yeah, its the end users paying for it that I can't see. The even bigger issue is IF by some magic the end user demand does start paying it must do so in a manner that keeps turning the crank on ever cheaper compute with a rapid depreciation, because only he who has the latest hardware makes any money on tokens.

The latest SA article on Deepseek is worth reading for that point. Look at the tables of token costs vs hardware type (GB300NVL72 dominates). Its not worth buying anything else.

newsletter.semianalysis.com

[Pravin Kamdar] If this gets worse after tomorrow's CPI, I may have to put some of the cash I ha...

Pravin Kamdar — 6/9/2026 1:00:21 PM

If this gets worse after tomorrow's CPI, I may have to put some of the cash I have allocated for SPCX towards AMD, instead.

[Pravin Kamdar] Down $100 in the last few days. The old AMD is back!

Pravin Kamdar — 6/9/2026 12:51:58 PM

[rzborusa] Damn, that was a fast drop in the last few minutes ............

rzborusa — 6/9/2026 12:22:49 PM

[Pravin Kamdar] Looks like tech investors are running for the hills before the CPI numbers tomor...

Pravin Kamdar — 6/9/2026 12:19:49 PM

Looks like tech investors are running for the hills before the CPI numbers tomorrow.

[rzborusa] Drones, missiles, cruise to fast, linked to GPS and look down satellites have ch...

rzborusa — 6/9/2026 12:05:25 PM

Drones, missiles, cruise to fast, linked to GPS and look down satellites have changed warfare in a democratic way. It will lead to the end of the US empire. US military bases around the world are no longer projections of power. It is a boon to other countries that have been bullied for almost a century. In short the world is in a better place without an agressive dictitorial US with it's bought and payed for government.

Maybe that is why AI is such an obsession. The last throws of a dying empire. Probably a good thing for the US in the long term, to be one of many instead of top dog bully.

[Pravin Kamdar] Joe, All the Youtube videos are saying how over valued it is. I'm thinking abou...

Pravin Kamdar — 6/9/2026 11:31:06 AM

Joe,

All the Youtube videos are saying how over valued it is. I'm thinking about reducing my share request.

[eetnoyer] I thought so, too. Could never quite put my finger on why the circular financin...

eetnoyer — 6/9/2026 11:24:47 AM

I thought so, too. Could never quite put my finger on why the circular financing arrangements left me feeling so uneasy (other than the obvious dilution of AMD shares), but putting it in the context of the absolutely retarded lending practices that led to the 2008 debacle rings true to me.

As far as the bet on which way it goes, I lean towards an eventual pop. I just don't think the underlying end user revenue needed to sustain it will ever sufficiently materialize. No insight as to how long that takes, though.

[Joe NYC] Apparently, it is way oversubscribed. I have no idea how shares are allocated t...

Joe NYC — 6/8/2026 4:32:21 PM

Apparently, it is way oversubscribed. I have no idea how shares are allocated to individual investors.

[neolib] That was well worth the read, thanks for posting!

neolib — 6/8/2026 4:21:42 PM

[Pravin Kamdar] LOL. Will be in the boat together. After 15 days sell it all, if we get any.

Pravin Kamdar — 6/8/2026 3:43:51 PM

[Joe NYC] Ok, requested 1,000 shares of SpaceX through eTrade (Morgan Stanley)

Joe NYC — 6/8/2026 3:40:57 PM

[Pravin Kamdar] That's quite a paper. We don't know which way things will turn. This morning, Go...

Pravin Kamdar — 6/8/2026 1:44:17 PM

That's quite a paper. We don't know which way things will turn. This morning, Google is talking about making 3M TPUs with Intel 14A in 2028. That's a lot of TPUs. I think this hurts Nvidia more than AMD, as it can expand into a growing TAM, while Nvidia is limited by an influx of competition that erodes its growth rate into a growing TAM, because they no longer hold the whole market.

[eetnoyer] Worth chewing on, I think. open.substack.com

eetnoyer — 6/8/2026 12:04:10 PM

[Pravin Kamdar] That's funny! Gonna be a crazy week. We've got the Apple WWDC this week (keynot...

Pravin Kamdar — 6/8/2026 10:02:11 AM

That's funny!

Gonna be a crazy week. We've got the Apple WWDC this week (keynote this morning). CPI on Wednesday. ORCL earnings on Wednesday. And, the SPCX IPO on Friday.

Watch out for the CPI.

For those requesting IPO shares, they can only get as many that are covered by fully settled cash in their accounts. Those selling other things to raise that cash, could be a headwind.

[rzborusa] Reminds me of the fictional text, "TO SERVE MAN", turned out it was a cook book....

rzborusa — 6/7/2026 11:34:13 PM

Reminds me of the fictional text, "TO SERVE MAN", turned out it was a cook book.

AMD us up in pre market, what ever that means.

[Pravin Kamdar] Listened to it. It is a warning.

Pravin Kamdar — 6/6/2026 6:01:19 PM

[THE WATSONYOUTH] [graphic]

THE WATSONYOUTH — 6/6/2026 1:19:05 AM

[THE WATSONYOUTH] [youtube video] The Death Spiral Has Begun... Bitcoin, Tech, and Stretch All Cr...

THE WATSONYOUTH — 6/6/2026 12:48:11 AM

The Death Spiral Has Begun... Bitcoin, Tech, and Stretch All Cracking!

....Captain Schiff heaves to and lets fly

[THE WATSONYOUTH] ...I didn't know this ....................................... Michael Saylor’s...

THE WATSONYOUTH — 6/6/2026 12:27:12 AM

...I didn't know this

.......................................

Michael Saylor’s wealth destruction in March 2000 stands as one of the most dramatic, single-day personal financial collapses in corporate history. At the peak of the dot-com euphoria, Saylor’s paper net worth briefly hit $7 billion, making him the wealthiest person in the Washington, D.C. area.

Within a matter of days, $6 billion of that fortune vanished.

What triggered the wipeout wasn't just market momentum shifting—it was an accounting scandal that forced MicroStrategy to rewrite its financial history.

The Catalyst: Premature Revenue RecognitionMicroStrategy went public in 1998, and its stock soared from a split-adjusted low of around $7 to a peak of $333 per share by early March 2000. The company was marketed as a highly profitable business intelligence pioneer.

However, the growth engine was running on aggressive, non-GAAP accounting methods.

The Loophole: MicroStrategy was signing complex, multi-year software and consulting deals. Instead of spreading the revenue over the life of the contracts (as required by software accounting rules like SOP 97-2), they were recognizing massive chunks of revenue upfront to beat quarterly Wall Street estimates.
The "Boomerang" Deals: In some cases, contracts weren't even signed by both parties before the quarter closed. In other instances, they were backdated to artificially boost the previous quarter's numbers.

March 20, 2000: The FreefallThe house of cards collapsed on March 20, 2000, when MicroStrategy issued a press release announcing it would drastically restate its earnings for 1998 and 1999.

The market reaction was immediate and violent:

The stock plummeted 62% in a single day, dropping from $260 to $86.
By mid-April, after the company revealed it would also have to restate its 1997 financials, the shares fell to $33.
Saylor’s personal net worth lost $6 billion almost instantly.

When the dust settled on the restatements, the SEC revealed that instead of being highly profitable as reported, MicroStrategy had actually operated at a net loss for those three straight years. The restatement wiped away $66 million—nearly 20%—of the company's previously reported historical revenue.

The SEC SettlementIn December 2000, the Securities and Exchange Commission filed formal fraud charges against Saylor, co-founder Sanjeev Bansal, and former CFO Mark Lynch.

"MicroStrategy improperly recognized material amounts of revenue upfront... the company's public financial reports showed positive net income. In fact, MicroStrategy should have reported net losses."

— SEC Litigation Release No. 16829

Saylor settled the civil charges without admitting or denying the allegations. He paid $350,000 in penalties and a personal disgorgement of $8.3 million to shareholders.

The Aftermath Unlike many dot-com era casualties that went completely bankrupt, MicroStrategy had actual enterprise value and a real customer base using its data-mining software. The company survived by the skin of its teeth, though its stock ultimately bottomed out under $2 a share during the depths of the tech bust.

Saylor kept his position as CEO, kept the company afloat for two decades, and eventually leveraged that same corporate vehicle for his massive, highly publicized pivot into Bitcoin corporate treasury acquisitions starting in 2020.

[THE WATSONYOUTH] semiwiki.com .....................................................................

THE WATSONYOUTH — 6/5/2026 10:00:40 PM

semiwiki.com

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semiwiki.com

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semiwiki.com

[Pravin Kamdar] I may not be getting any. I requested 2000 from each of Schawb and Fidelity. The...

Pravin Kamdar — 6/5/2026 7:36:50 PM

I may not be getting any. I requested 2000 from each of Schawb and Fidelity. The 555 million shares in the offering are priced at $135 per share. If lucky enough to be allocated any, that is the price I would have to pay for each share. It could open much higher than that when they get it open on Friday.

[Joe NYC] How does it work? Do you know what share price you are getting?

Joe NYC — 6/5/2026 7:08:09 PM

[Pravin Kamdar] I requested SPCX shares through my brokerages. Will be interesting to see if I g...

Pravin Kamdar — 6/5/2026 6:50:35 PM

I requested SPCX shares through my brokerages. Will be interesting to see if I get any.

[neolib] Whats not so great is I'm sure they are buying them very cheap and then marking ...

neolib — 6/5/2026 6:01:38 PM

Whats not so great is I'm sure they are buying them very cheap and then marking them up very well!

Since they open sourced the BoM, someone should compare what the BoM $ looks like assuming reasonable volumes and what Nvidia sells that for. I'm sure the 75% GM applies...

[Joe NYC] This embedded CPU s based on original Zen, Naples. Another, hard to believe thi...

Joe NYC — 6/5/2026 5:16:13 PM

This embedded CPU s based on original Zen, Naples.

Another, hard to believe thing: Global Foundries is still getting 14nm business from AMD.

[X]

FYI, the $AMD EPYC 3151 CPU used in Nvidia's Rubin NVLink Switch trays are actually manufactured by GLOBAL FOUNDRIES on 14nm!!!!! 😅😅😅

There won't be any shortage!!! Nvidia can keep buying them without any problems!!!! haha! https://t.co/C7TXHEhty5
— Ally (@treasureh8nter) June 5, 2026

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[Joe NYC] Same, NY -> NJ -> NY

Joe NYC — 6/5/2026 5:11:46 PM

[THE WATSONYOUTH] Message 35537831 TSMC Warns Chip Supply Won’t Meet AI-Fueled Demand for Years

THE WATSONYOUTH — 6/5/2026 4:11:36 PM

[Joe NYC] Small win in NVidia racks: [X] BREAKING NEWS: NVIDIA HAS JUST OPEN SOURCED THE...

Joe NYC — 6/5/2026 2:39:36 PM

Small win in NVidia racks:

[X]

BREAKING NEWS: NVIDIA HAS JUST OPEN SOURCED THEIR RUBIN NVSWITCH TRAY BoM & DIAGRAM & IT INCLUDES AMD EYPC 3151 EMBEDDED CPU. Since there is 9 NVSwitch Trays Per VR200 Rack, that is 9 small AMD embedded CPUs per NVIDIA rack.

NVIDIA has open sourced this in their… pic.twitter.com/IkYf4DuHP9
— SemiAnalysis (@SemiAnalysis_) June 5, 2026

[/X]

[THE WATSONYOUTH] ...gold barely exceeded $5300......and for only a short time...still at $4500......

THE WATSONYOUTH — 6/5/2026 12:54:46 PM

...gold barely exceeded $5300......and for only a short time...still at $4500.....not bad at all....you have selected memory

selected comprehension as well

spiked to $5500+ for two days.....next day collapsed to $4700+

......................................................

.....is this the crash?
.....bottom falling out of bitcoin
.....techs getting crushed
.....where goes the money??
.....guessing back into precious metals
.....but, I'm just watching

[Pravin Kamdar] In any case, not bad at all. It was a hedge. Glad I didn't put it into digital ...

Pravin Kamdar — 6/5/2026 12:42:31 AM

In any case, not bad at all. It was a hedge. Glad I didn't put it into digital gold.

It's not over.

I expect the administration to create dollars like crazy, for millions of toasters, going into the midterms.

This should make gold go back to the highs.

[Pravin Kamdar] I said: Remember at $5500, he had all the same reasons for why it was going s...

Pravin Kamdar — 6/5/2026 12:24:01 AM

I said: Remember at $5500, he had all the same reasons for why it was going sky high from there. Now, $4500. You said:
...gold barely exceeded $5300......and for only a short time...still at $4500.....not bad at all....you have selected memory

Easy to check. From Gemini:

The highest price of gold in 2026 was $\$5,589.38$ per troy ounce. This all-time record high was reached on January 28, 2026, driven by a powerful combination of escalating geopolitical conflicts and surging inflation fears.

Who has a selective memory?

I remember what happened to my money. But, not what I had for breakfast.

[THE WATSONYOUTH] lifezette.com .....I quit Jersey 50 years ago .....problem was I moved to New Y...

THE WATSONYOUTH — 6/4/2026 8:57:08 PM

lifezette.com

.....I quit Jersey 50 years ago
.....problem was I moved to New York

[THE WATSONYOUTH] ...gold barely exceeded $5300......and for only a short time...still at $4500......

THE WATSONYOUTH — 6/4/2026 6:23:29 PM

...gold barely exceeded $5300......and for only a short time...still at $4500.....not bad at all....you have selected memory

[neolib] Too busy to look much today, but AVGO got pounded as was hinted at last night. ...

neolib — 6/4/2026 5:58:04 PM

Too busy to look much today, but AVGO got pounded as was hinted at last night. Would be nice to see a compare with AMD. ASIC and GPU out of favor and its all CPU now? The problem with CPU is nobody has a moat the way things are evolving. Its going to be a very fractured market.

[Pravin Kamdar] I mistakenly held about 20% in cash and gold (just a couple hundred $K in gold) ...

Pravin Kamdar — 6/4/2026 4:04:26 PM

I mistakenly held about 20% in cash and gold (just a couple hundred $K in gold) during this run up. As I don't have another rodeo, I thought it was the prudent thing to do.

I'm thinking of selling about 1% at $550, and for every $25 up after that. When, or if, it gets to $1000, I'll have about another 20% loss of shares, but will still be happy. If there is a big market correction, I'll have dry powder.

[Pravin Kamdar] Given the herd stampede for the exits this morning, a $20 recovery is a good sig...

Pravin Kamdar — 6/4/2026 3:53:18 PM

Given the herd stampede for the exits this morning, a $20 recovery is a good sign. That puts us into yesterday's opening territory.

[Pravin Kamdar] Remember at $5500, he had all the same reasons for why it was going sky high fro...

Pravin Kamdar — 6/4/2026 3:48:38 PM

Remember at $5500, he had all the same reasons for why it was going sky high from there. Now, $4500. His arguments make sense to me, but, at this moment, the market does not agree.

Much better than crypto, though.

[Pravin Kamdar] If you read, or have listened to the AVGO CC, when asked about Google's commitme...

Pravin Kamdar — 6/4/2026 2:40:31 PM

If you read, or have listened to the AVGO CC, when asked about Google's commitment to them, the CEO said it is a solid large commitment, but as Google diversifies, they can not win all designs. Something like that.

Some are suggesting MediaTek. I think with the shift to agentic AI, they might be shifting a bit from inference TPUs, to a more general compute processor.

Might be good for AMD?

[Pravin Kamdar] IBM is working with AMD on hybrid quantum. They said the other day they are putt...

Pravin Kamdar — 6/4/2026 2:31:50 PM

IBM is working with AMD on hybrid quantum. They said the other day they are putting $10B into it. The FPGAs work to help the qbits stay coherent?

Now this:

reddit.com

[THE WATSONYOUTH] ccn.com ...Schiff called this one right just a few days ago ...not so on gold /...

THE WATSONYOUTH — 6/4/2026 12:50:09 PM

ccn.com

...Schiff called this one right just a few days ago
...not so on gold / silver which continue to form lower bases

Message 35533906

...a prelude to a big stock decline?
...a sign of $$ return into precious metals??

[Pravin Kamdar] Damn. We are all the way back down to where we were on Tuesday.

Pravin Kamdar — 6/4/2026 11:42:33 AM

[Joe NYC] re: They would surely have been already have been thinking about an RTX powered ...

Joe NYC — 6/4/2026 11:39:24 AM

re: They would surely have been already have been thinking about an RTX powered Surface at that point I would think.

How many years back was it? It may have been launch of Phoenix mobile CPUs, which would have been January 2023. So it is possible that NVidia CPU / GPU was not fully defined.

[Joe NYC] People thought Bermuda Triangle was a big mystery. 4Chan identifies even a bigg...

Joe NYC — 6/4/2026 11:35:43 AM

People thought Bermuda Triangle was a big mystery.

4Chan identifies even a bigger mystery triangle:

[X]

LMAOOO pic.twitter.com/6tHT922FK1
— VolgaLad (@cym27s) June 3, 2026

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[neolib] His last post was late '24, so yeah I suspect he might not be around. The probl...

neolib — 6/3/2026 8:00:43 PM

His last post was late '24, so yeah I suspect he might not be around. The problem with SI, we all be graying...