Silicon Investor - The Brazil Board

[elmatador] While everyone watches the Gulf burn, the quietest deals are the most telling. ...

elmatador — 6/12/2026 4:12:49 AM

While everyone watches the Gulf burn, the quietest deals are the most telling.

Petrobras just bought 50% of an exploration block nobody's heard of. It's a small deal but it's also exactly where the post Hormuz oil map is being drawn.

[X]

While everyone watches the Gulf burn, the quietest deals are the most telling.

🇧🇷Petrobras just bought 50% of an exploration block nobody's heard of.
It's a small deal but it's also exactly where the post Hormuz oil map is being drawn.

Petrobras farms into Itaimbezinho, a… pic.twitter.com/x4zzO3CcAQ
— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) June 11, 2026

[/X]

[elmatador] Tupi and Buzios, Brazil’s two key export grades, are around 30 and 28 degrees A...

elmatador — 6/9/2026 8:42:29 AM

Tupi and Buzios, Brazil’s two key export grades, are around 30 and 28 degrees API, respectively, with a low sulphur content.

They are medium-sweet crudes, close enough to some of the Gulf barrels Asia has lost and useful for refineries trying to protect middle-distillate yields.

That matters in a market short of diesel and jet fuel. For China, the value is security of supply.

For India, it is also refinery economics: complex plants can use Brazilian crude to support product output at a time when domestic fuel demand is still rising.

Brazil has the production base to make its Asian pivot viable. Domestic crude output reached around 4.24 million b/d in March, up about 15% year-on-year from 3.6 million b/d in March 2025.

State-owned Petrobras alone reported total oil production of about 3.73 million b/d in the same month, equivalent to 88% of the country’s production.

With extra barrels available, the state oil company fully shifted its focus on Asia and reported early May that it had cut crude exports to the US to zero from around 60,000 b/d in March. The commercial logic is straightforward.

Asia needs the barrels more, and the margins are better. Consequently, more than 60% of Petrobras exports are now going to China.

oilprice.com

[DinoNavarre] Be careful what you wish for!!!

DinoNavarre — 6/8/2026 3:47:59 PM

[elmatador] The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) primarily benefits emerging marke...

elmatador — 6/8/2026 5:04:26 AM

The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) primarily benefits emerging market economies, commodity exporters, and nations subject to Western financial sanctions.

By providing an alternative to the U.S. dollar, it reduces exchange rate risks, lowers transaction costs in Sino-centric supply chains, and buffers developing nations against dollar shortages.

As the Action Among Friends of the post-WWII -Bretton Woods- made Canada and Australia rich parties,
China's Renminbi internationalization will make Russia and Brazil richer.

[elmatador] Sugar Daddy By Keren Blankfeld, Former Staff. Mar 09, 2011, 06:00pm ESTMar 09...

elmatador — 6/6/2026 1:22:37 AM

Sugar Daddy

By Keren Blankfeld,

Former Staff.

Mar 09, 2011, 06:00pm ESTMar 09, 2011, 06:05pm EST

Outside the big window from the sixth-floor conference room stretches a long canyon of cranes, construction equipment and new high-rises along São Paulo's coveted Avenida Presidente Juscelino Kubitschek. Rubens Ometto Silveira Mello can't wait to show off his contribution to the metastatic growth in a city that can't sit still. Dressed in a black suit, blue tie, brown dress shoes and rectangular glasses, Ometto, 61, is right at home in the mess a couple of blocks away.

Stepping along a dusty cardboard path, dodging metal tubes, electric wires and naked lightbulbs, he inhales the scent of fresh paint. "We're seeing the creation of a new company!"

That creation is a $12 billion joint venture between Royal Dutch Shell and the Brazilian sugar and ethanol group that Ometto controls, Cosan S.A. Announced last year and christened Raízen this February, the biofuels outfit is being hailed by industry analysts as the most significant collaboration between a global oil titan and a Brazilian renewable energy company.

Split 50-50 between Cosan and Shell, Raízen boasts 40,000 employees. Here's some of what Shell is bringing to the game: $1.6 billion in cash; 2,740 branded retail sites; its 16.3% stake in Codexis, a Redwood City, Calif. maker of enzymes for green tech; and its interest in Iogen Energy, a biotech outfit specializing in cellulosic ethanol.

Among other things, Cosan will contribute use of its 24 mills; its cogeneration plants that produce 900 megawatts of electric power from sugarcane bagasse (a.k.a. "second-generation" ethanol); and its downstream assets, including 1,730 retail sites. In turn, Raízen is expected to produce more than 2.2 billion liters of ethanol per year to supply both its network of 4,500 domestic fuel stations and, eventually, international markets. Cosan and Shell will share all revenue and profits.

One of its key goals is to make sugarcane ethanol into an international commodity, a challenge Brazil has been struggling with for years because of high tariffs imposed by Europe and the U.S., and the subsidies they offer their domestic producers.

Even with such hindrances, Cosan, which is traded on the New York Stock Exchange, is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the fifth-biggest ethanol maker. Last year it netted $528 million on revenue of $8 billion. What started off 75 years ago as a single sugar mill has become a collection of two dozen mills that help produce a variety of foods, fuels and lubricants and the means of distributing these finished products throughout Brazil and, increasingly, the rest of the world.

Today sugar accounts for 22% of its sales. Brazil is the world's biggest sugar exporter, and Cosan is Brazil's number one sugar exporter. That is thanks, largely, to Ometto's 30-year muscular efforts--some would say unremitting war--to transform a tiny, struggling family business into a global megacorporation.

Cosan is also the largest producer of sugarcane-based electricity on the planet and expects its biofuel segment will outstrip its current sugar business. One of Ometto's showcases for change is an hour's helicopter ride from the roof of his São Paulo headquarters. With 173,000 acres of sugarcane and a capacity to crush 37,000 tons of fiber every day, Da Barra is Cosan's biggest mill. It produces five different kinds of sugar, ethanol and leftover sugarcane pulp, or bagasse--the stuff that will be processed and fed into the on-site biomass thermoelectric plant that runs the entire mill. The old slash-and-burn habits of sugar plantations are becoming as much a part of history as the Portuguese explorers who discovered Brazil.

Ometto, who is worth $2.5 billion, likes to say that if he ever sits down to write his own story, he'll claim to have planned the transformation of the business from the beginning. But, he admits, that's just not true. He has built an empire out of his own fierce ambitions, and he has battled anyone who got in his way--the government, competitors and, most especially, his family.

He was born at the sugar mill his grandparents founded in 1936 in Piracicaba, a rural town in the interior of São Paulo state, where his great-grandparents had settled when they immigrated from Italy in the 1800s to become sugarcane farmers. Ometto learned to read and write with local kids in a school set up inside the mill. At home he was often in the middle of conflicts. "In every family business with many members, there's a lot of politics," he recalls. "I just wanted to work for myself, not depend on family for a job."

At 16 he went to São Paulo to prepare for college. Cousins who'd grown up in the city taunted him as a hick, but he wound up at the respected School of Engineering at the University of São Paulo. Throughout college he interned at one of Brazil's biggest banks, Unibanco. During that time Ometto accompanied his girlfriend (and future wife) to her father's birthday party and happened to sit next to José Ermirio de Moraes, who had built one of Brazil's biggest industrial conglomerates, Grupo Votorantim. Ometto, 20 at the time, developed a kinship with the 70-year-old tycoon, who took him under his wing. When Ometto graduated from college De Moraes brought him onboard. At 24 Ometto became the conglomerate's financial director.

Back in Piracicaba the family business was being run by his mother and her seven siblings--with no one in control. Different factions bought new mills, complicating ownership; various interests collided. In 1975 the Piracicaba mill took an interest in sugarcane's other by-product: ethanol. The Brazilian government launched its "Pro-Alcool" program to reduce dependence on foreign oil after the Yom Kippur War pushed up oil prices and Arab boycotts followed.

As oil prices spiked, the Brazilian government ramped up investments in oil exploration and production on behalf of the state-owned Petrobras and introduced subsidies and tax breaks for mills willing to convert sugar into ethanol. In 1976 it began requiring that all gasoline be blended with ethanol. State agencies developed new sugarcane strains, more efficient fertilizers to increase yield and biotech pesticides.

Ometto's uncle, the guy in charge, leaned on him for advice and often asked him to come work with him. But Ometto, who put in a decade at Votorantim, kept refusing--until his uncle had a stroke in 1980. "Now you have to come," his uncle told him. Ometto said okay but only on his terms. Before accepting the reins, he wrote a shareholder agreement outlining everyone's role and the governance structure. "We get along well today," he remembers telling his uncle, "but in a few years you'll be well again, and I'm afraid that our relationship won't be the same." He adds, "It was the best thing I did."

Ometto found a business in disarray. Cosan was mired in debt, inefficient, unprofitable--and bore no resemblance to a meritocracy. He decided to extend the eight-month growing season by planting different varieties of sugarcane--and put an end to lengthy fishing vacations by executives. He bought his neighbor's mill, the first of an aggressive consolidation. Such combativeness earned him the moniker o trator--"the tractor"--which Ometto finds appropriate in light of the long legal fights with family in order to gain control of Cosan. "I ran them all over," he acknowledges. "I consolidated the whole thing. I got good lawyers and moved things around. I created one balance sheet."

His brothers resisted and took him to court. "One person wanted to get his son a job, a kid who'd never studied, never worked," says Ometto. "Not here. The only family member who stayed at Cosan was me." In 1990, after a decade of legal squabbling, Ometto bought out the 23 family shareholders.

He was also fighting the government. After building his first refinery, Ometto found that the law required him to sell sugar to the competition at a subsidized price. Outraged, "I had to go to the courts and the authorities and show the ridiculousness of the thing, and eventually it got taken down, and we increased our profits." Then there was the rule that sugar, which was exported exclusively by the Brazilian government, had to be packaged in cotton-and-jute bags because of the industries' lobbies. Together with the petrochemical industry he developed a plastic bag at one-third of the price, angering the cotton industry. When Ometto appealed to the government to be able to export a small amount of sugar on his own, rivals tried to block him. But he eventually prevailed, a move that attracted foreign credit and led to further expansion. When the government privatized sugar in 1990, Ometto was far out in front.

With the lifting of export limits, Cosan found an expanding market for VHP (very high polarization sugar), a raw sugar it developed that is ideal for shipping and refinement for different uses--including ethanol. Today Cosan exports about 30% of the ethanol it produces, but little of that finds its way to the U.S., despite 2007 pledges by Presidents George W. Bush and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to share biofuel technology. Fiscal politics get in the way: The U.S. slaps a 54-cent tax, plus a 2.5% tariff, on every gallon of imported ethanol, while also applying a 45-cent-per-gallon subsidy to American refiners that blend ethanol with gasoline. "We were hoping the tariffs would end at the end of last year," says Marcos Jank, president of the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association, Unica. "We are now studying the possibility of going to the WTO to question their legality." (Those tariffs and taxes will be on the table during President Obama's scheduled visit to Brazil in late March.)

Unica opened an office in Washington, D.C. to lobby on behalf of sugarcane producers. Some facts: Most ethanol production takes place more than 1,550 miles from the Amazon; less than 0.2% of total ethanol production comes from the Amazon; only 2.5% of Brazil's arable land is dedicated to what will become ethanol. A study by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars claims sugarcane is a far more efficient biofuel than corn, producing 8.2 joules of energy per unit of fossil fuel input, compared with 1.5 joules from corn.

Closer to home, Ometto has been waging new battles to maintain control. When foreign investors started coming to Brazil he worried that Cosan could be the victim of a hostile takeover by an oil company. Already trading on the Brazilian stock exchange, Ometto created a holding company for Cosan with two classes of stocks; he incorporated it in Bermuda and later listed shares on the New York Stock Exchange (Brazil's stock exchange has only one class of stocks). Investors were upset at having their shares diluted. Even the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil threatened to take action. Ometto prevailed.

He also turned predatory, cutting a deal with certain members of family-owned Companhia Açucareira Vale do Rosário, one of Brazil's largest sugar mills, offering $775 million or so for 50.2% of the company. His plan backfired because of a loophole that allowed 30 days for a matching bid. During that month the mill's main owner, Junqueira Franco, engineered his own deal with the Biagi family, soybean producers. The group offered the same price to buy out the family members who wanted to sell.

Ometto recovered quickly, snapping up 1,500 gas and ethanol service stations, 240 convenience stores, as well as lubricants and aviation operations from ExxonMobil when it exited Brazil in 2008. At first investors complained that Ometto was acquiring a company with 3% margins on top of a core business that extracted around 20%. But as a result of the $890 million acquisition, Cosan became an integrated company and Brazil's fourth-largest ethanol distributor--putting it in a very good position to do business with Shell.

With Brazil's ethanol consumption at a current 6 billion gallons a year with an average annual growth rate of 19% over the last five years, everyone is piling into the business. But instead of hostility, a feeling of camaraderie permeates the club that includes Cosan, Petrobras and Adecoagro, an ag and biofuels giant. There seems to be enough business for everybody: Car sales in Brazil have been hitting records, up 12% last year from 2009; 90% of all autos sold in Brazil are flexfuel. Longer term there is the hoped-for export bonanza of ethanol. "We think the global agenda that wants a low-carbon alternative is definitive," says Miguel Rossetto, CEO of Petrobras' biofuels unit, Petrobras Biocombustível. "The world will continue to use oil, gas and coal. But the biofuel sector will grow--and we are preparing ourselves to be there."

All the players, that is. Cosan already has a sizable division, Rumo Logistica, to store, transport and ship its products. Just over a year ago Cosan decided to invest $695 million to construct the largest sugar terminal in the world and a connecting rail line. But Ometto has also just thrown in with a consortium of biofuels producers to build 808 miles of pipeline that will extend through 45 municipalities; they're shooting to open the spigots by 2016. In addition, Cosan is working with Unica and other ethanolistas to develop the next generation of sugarcane by-products, including ethanol produced from cellulose, new forms of cogeneration and "green" plastic that is biodegradable.

Don't get the idea that all this coziness has stimulated Ometto's cuddly side. "He calls me every Sunday night at 7 to talk about ideas he's had over the weekend," says Cosan CEO Marcos Lutz. Ometto, who serves as chairman, says he phones a number of executives that evening to prepare for the week. "Friday and Saturday they rested. The guy who's into what he does is always on, always thinking." He'd better be. "My executive team is always on," says Ometto, his voice rising. "I get pissed at the guy who leaves at 6 or 7 p.m. and turns off his cellphone! He needs to like what he does!"

Ometto has no plans to retire. He'll slow down, perhaps, redistribute his time. But pack it in? Never. He used to hop in his chopper to make surprise visits to the mills almost every day. Then it became a twice-a-week tradition and, later, once a week. Now, he says, he's simply "an adviser" to the company. He will not allow his two daughters, who are 32 and 33, to join Cosan's management team, since he still believes that family has no place in a company's operations, although he is preparing them to become members of the board.

"At one point in my life, during all these fights, I saw myself in a situation where I was very worried about my survival; I was worried about making money." Ometto leans back in a conference room chair, folding his arms. "That's when I began to make the silliest decisions of my life--but that's also when I realized that any time you do something with the [sole] objective of making money, you do stupid things."

Then he sits up. "Have a vision and the money will come."

[E_K_S] President Donald Trump has temporarily reduced tariffs on agricultural and indus...

E_K_S — 6/2/2026 11:38:36 AM

President Donald Trump has temporarily reduced tariffs on agricultural and industrial equipment from 25% to 15%, effective June 8, 2026, through December 2027. This reduction applies to foreign-made combines, harvesters, bulldozers, and forklifts to lower costs for farmers and encourage investment in the U.S. agricultural sector.

Additional incentives and exemptions include a further reduced 10% tariff rate for equipment containing at least 85% U.S.-sourced steel or aluminum. Separately, an Executive Order issued in November 2025 removed reciprocal tariffs entirely on specific agricultural products not sufficiently produced in the U.S., including fertilizer, coffee, tropical fruits, and beef.

Recent trade developments involve a May 2026 agreement where China committed to purchasing an additional $17 billion in U.S. agriculture annually, with both nations agreeing in principle to include agricultural products in a reciprocal tariff reduction framework. These measures follow earlier actions to address rising input costs linked to global conflicts and supply chain disruptions.

[elmatador] Mr. Trump’s effort to rebuild a tariff plan after key elements of his trade agen...

elmatador — 6/2/2026 9:45:51 AM

Mr. Trump’s effort to rebuild a tariff plan after key elements of his trade agenda were struck down by the Supreme Court in February.

Although Mr. Trump responded with a 10 percent global tariff, a panel of federal judges ruled last month that those duties violated the law.

In a news release, the United States Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, said the investigation found that Brazil had failed to adequately enforce intellectual property rights and had not taken sufficient measures to combat corruption and bribery. The administration also cited Brazil’s restrictions on access to its ethanol market, and what it described as inadequate enforcement of anti-deforestation laws.

Trump Targets Brazil With 25% Tariff, Citing Unfair Trade Practices

The proposal marks the latest effort by the administration to rebuild its tariff agenda through Section 301 investigations.

By Daisuke Wakabayashi

June 2, 2026Updated 9:24 a.m. ET

The Trump administration on Monday proposed a 25 percent tariff on a broad range of Brazilian imports, concluding after a trade investigation that Brazil had engaged in unfair practices that imposed burdens on American businesses.

In a news release, the United States Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, said the investigation found that Brazil had failed to adequately enforce intellectual property rights and had not taken sufficient measures to combat corruption and bribery. The administration also cited Brazil’s restrictions on access to its ethanol market, and what it described as inadequate enforcement of anti-deforestation laws.

The investigation was conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which authorizes the United States to impose tariffs and other penalties in response to unfair foreign trade practices.

Mr. Greer said that he and President Trump had “several constructive meetings” with the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, over the past year, but that “substantial differences” remained over issues identified in the investigation. The United States Trade Representative is scheduled to hold a public hearing on the proposed measures on July 6.

Brazil has until July 15 to take what Mr. Greer called “responsive action” to address the issues raised in the investigation.

Brazil is one of more than a dozen countries that have come under Section 301 investigations as part of Mr. Trump’s effort to rebuild a tariff plan after key elements of his trade agenda were struck down by the Supreme Court in February. Although Mr. Trump responded with a 10 percent global tariff, a panel of federal judges ruled last month that those duties violated the law.

The Trump administration has been working to establish a more durable global tariff system by the summer, but Section 301 requires the government to conduct country-specific investigations and hold consultations and hearings before the new import taxes can take effect.

The proposed tariffs would exempt some products, including beef, coffee, rare earth metals, aircraft equipment and certain fruits and vegetables.

The move comes despite the United States maintaining a trade surplus with Brazil for the past decade. Last year, Mr. Trump imposed a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian imports to pressure the country to halt its prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s former president and an ally of Mr. Trump. The United States later rolled back the tariffs on many Brazilian goods, while the court challenges further reduced the scope of the duties.

Daisuke Wakabayashi is an Asia business correspondent for The Times based in Seoul, covering economic, corporate and geopolitical stories from the region.

[DinoNavarre] Trump proposes Brazil tariffs: The Trump admin. proposed a 25% tariff on many Br...

DinoNavarre — 6/2/2026 9:18:48 AM

Trump proposes Brazil tariffs: The Trump admin. proposed a 25% tariff on many Brazilian imports after a Section 301 probe found unfair trade practices, despite a longstanding U.S. trade surplus. Source: NY Times.

[elmatador] Brazil Oil & Gas Investments Forecasted to Reach $83.5 Billion by 2032 Brazil's ...

elmatador — 6/1/2026 5:23:52 AM

Brazil Oil & Gas Investments Forecasted to Reach $83.5 Billion by 2032
Brazil's government forecasts 432 billion reais (US$83.5 billion) in oil and gas investments by 2032, driven by oil development and production.

Released Tuesday, March 03, 2026

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Brazil Oil & Gas Investments Forecasted to Reach $83.5 Billion by 2032

Reports related to this article:

Project(s): View 29 related projects in Energy Live

Written by Amir Richani for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

SummaryBrazil's government forecasts 432 billion reais (US$83.5 billion) in oil and gas investments by 2032, driven by oil development and production.

The government forecasts 1.2 trillion reais (US$232 billion) in investments in energy, transmission, mining and data centers by 2032.Brazilian Investments Target Crude Oil

The government expects oil and gas investments to reach 432 billion Brazilian reais (US$83.5 billion) and generate 2 million jobs by 2032.

Approximately 93% of the forecasted investments will target oil development and production, while 3% is for midstream capacity, 2% for downstream activities and the rest for natural gas.

Authorities estimate that oil and gas investments between 2025 and 2035 could reach 2.8 trillion reais (US$541 billion) during that period.

Among the key upstream projects expected to be developed by 2032 is Equinor's Raia pre-salt development, which is projected to begin production by 2028 and add some 126,000 barrels per day (BBL/d) of new capacity. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Production Project Database can view the detailed project reports.

Meanwhile, in the midstream segment, Nova Transportadora do Sudeste will lead several developments to transport oil and gas production and expand processing capacity. Among the projects are the Integration of Pre-Sal Sul, which includes compression plants and 300 kilometers of gas pipelines, as well as the Macae Gas Compressor Station.

These investments are part of the Ministry of Energy and Mines portfolio, spanning renewable energy, transmission lines, renewable fuels, mining and data center projects.

All segments together could total 1.2 trillion reais (US$232 billion) by 2032, or up to 4 trillion reais (US$773 billion) for all projects for the period of 2025 to 2035.

Industrial Info is tracking 585 active capital oil and gas production projects in Brazil, worth US$42.55 billion.

Oil and Gas Focus

Brazil has grown its oil and gas infrastructure over the years to become South America's largest hydrocarbon producer, with Petrobras, the country's national oil and gas company, at the helm of developments.

In January, the country produced 5.168 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE/d). Oil accounted for 3.953 million BBL/d, a 14.6% year-over-year increase.

The higher volumes are the result of the deployment of new offshore platforms in Brazil's prolific pre-salt areas. Pre-salt output accounted for 80% of the nation's production in January.

Key Takeaways

Brazil projects oil and gas investments of 432 billion reais (US$83.5 billion) by 2032.
Oil development and production would account for over 90% of the investment.
The government projects 1.2 trillion reais (US$232 billion) in broader energy and mining investments.

About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).

industrialinfo.com

[elmatador] Brazil sets new April record for beef exports amid sustained surge China and US...

elmatador — 5/31/2026 8:40:05 AM

Brazil sets new April record for beef exports amid sustained surge

China and US lead destinations as four-month volumes climb nearly 30%

26 May 2026
1 minute read
By: Global Ag Media

South America

Brazilian beef exports have maintained a strong pace since last year, with monthly volumes exceeding 200,000 tons every month since March 2025, according to data from Secex compiled by Cepea. Brazil shipped 953,606 tons of beef in the first four months of 2026, up 15.2% from the same period in 2025 and nearly 30% higher than the first four months of 2024.

April 2026 exports totalled 251,944 tons, the highest volume ever recorded for the month in the Secex historical series. Export revenues totalled USD $1.57 billion in April, up 15.6% from March and 29.4% from April 2025. In local currency, the figure was BRL 7.909 billion (USD $1.57 billion), up 11.2% and 12.6% over the same comparisons.

China remained the leading destination, importing 135,472 tons in April alone, up 32.8% from March. In the first four months of 2026, shipments to China totalled 460,888 tons, up 19.3% from the same period last year, when exports reached 386,351 tons.

The US was the second-largest destination, with 37,469 tons shipped in April. From January to April, the US imported 135,640 tons of Brazilian beef, accounting for 14% of Brazil's total beef exports during the period.

thecattlesite.com

[DinoNavarre] [X] https://t.co/9e5Cm7ootE— Drew Crawford (@drewcrawford_) May 25, 2026 [/X]

DinoNavarre — 5/28/2026 12:53:37 PM

[elmatador] Investing in the era of scarcity Markets have yet to register the new fashion am...

elmatador — 5/23/2026 2:55:19 AM

Investing in the era of scarcity
Markets have yet to register the new fashion among governments for hoarding and huddling

Gillian Tett

Published May 22 2026

A couple of weeks ago, a striking snippet of news emerged from Down Under: the New Zealand government signed a pact with Singapore which guarantees that the two countries will send each other food and fuel if global shortages erupt.

“The past few months have shown we live in a volatile world — Kiwis are seeing that every time they fill up their car,” Chris Luxon, New Zealand’s prime minister, said. “That is why we are hustling in the world to protect [ourselves].”

Elmat: It starts at the periphery: New Zealand, Australia, Japan Singapore

He is not alone. Australia recently signed a similar pact with Japan to maintain flows of rare earth minerals, fuel and agriculture to offset any crisis. The EU is considering regional stockpiles of fertiliser amid fears of a food crunch. And, as I have written, governments and companies around the world are now quietly stockpiling key items. Call this, if you like, a new fashion for hoarding and huddling as fears that we are entering the era of scarcity intensify.

This is ironic, in a cultural sense. Most western business and political leaders grew up in a world where scarcity seemed an old-fashioned problem. Seamless free trade and efficient supply chains that drive growth were the leitmotifs of the era of neoliberal globalisation. Moreover, the prevailing wisdom in Silicon Valley today is that technological innovation will remove future capacity constraints in many areas of our lives.

Indeed when the American writers Derek Thomson and Ezra Klein published a thoughtful book last year about rebooting America, they called it Abundance, in the hope of unlocking that future, and it quickly became a bestseller.

Investors have absorbed this cultural vibe too. In the last couple of years there has been a stunning rally in the tech stocks that purport to use innovations, such as AI, to unleash that “abundance”. As a result, the so-called Magnificent Seven Big Tech companies now account for around 35 per cent of the S&P market, compared to 12 per cent a decade ago.

Elmat: Capital allocators have an opportunity to invest in the productive countries. S&P piles up capital, the productive regions and activities

This is striking. But what is doubly noteworthy, as Jeff Currie of Carlyle wrote on X, is that while “information and technology services [are] 42 per cent of the S&P 500” today, “energy and materials [are] roughly 6 per cent” and “commodity hedge fund AUM [assets under management] is essentially nil.”

Elmat: China is investing in productive assets. It invests $10 billion annually in LatAm, concentrating in 4 countries: Brazil, Chile Peru and Mexico. These 4 countries have a combined GDP of $4.35 trillion or about the equivalent of Germany, the world's third biggest economy. China is prepared for the age of scarcity

Or to put it another way, investors have been so dazzled by services that they have long overlooked stocks linked to old-fashioned industrial and energy processes. Thus the “Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence”, or Halo trades, have all “been starved of capital” in relative terms, Currie wrote.

However, this approach jars with the current direction of world events and the threat of scarcity. The crisis around the Strait of Hormuz has already created shortages of energy and industrial inputs, and these are likely to worsen.

The US war with Iran has also demonstrated the longer-term vulnerabilities around global trade, given that the strait is not the only transport chokepoint in the world and Iran is not the only country seeking to use such chokepoints for leverage.

And what investors sometimes overlook is that the eye-wateringly large capital investment plans being rolled out to support AI require not just hundreds of billions of dollars, but also molecules in the form of materials such as copper, water, gallium, lithium and concrete.

The supply of these has been undermined in the US, among other countries, by the lack of capital investment in key industries or mines. And the more that politicians erect nationalist or protectionist barriers, the more that pressure to use capital to invest in local markets in order to ensure ready access to molecules will increase.

“This is not an AI-disruption story. Halo is better read as Hard Assets, Local Operations,” wrote Currie, who forecasts a major repricing as investors shift from tech to Halo trades. As Craig Tindale, an Australian investor, noted on X: “The financial world and the physical world are pulling in opposite directions, causing the old economic rules to fail entirely.”

Many observers in Silicon Valley might disagree. Indeed, on a recent visit to America’s West Coast I was struck by tech’s confidence that the stock market and AI boom can weather geopolitical turmoil. “Does anyone really care if the Strait of Hormuz is open?” one banker observed during the Milken conference, which was dominated by excitement about SpaceX’s upcoming initial public offering.

Maybe future historians will conclude that the techies were right. But investors today should nonetheless pay attention to how governments, in New Zealand and elsewhere, are already nervously adopting a scarcity mindset, and then ask if current weightings in the stock market index really reflect this.

After all, as Robert Rubin, former US Treasury secretary, wrote in the FT this week, “markets can be out of sync with reality for an extended period, and then react rapidly and harshly”. Once again, reality is likely to eventually exact its revenge.

gillian.tett@ft.com

[elmatador] Lift costs of oil Saudi Arabia: $3 - $10 per barrel. Kuwait, Iraq, Iran: $5 - ...

elmatador — 5/20/2026 1:51:03 AM

Lift costs of oil Saudi Arabia: $3 - $10 per barrel.

Kuwait, Iraq, Iran: $5 - $15 per barrel

Offshore Deepwater (e.g., Brazil, Guyana): $25 - $40 per barrel.

US Shale & Canadian Oil Sands: $50 - $75 per barrel

[elmatador] The American hamburger is already Brazilian. Most Americans have never heard of...

elmatador — 5/20/2026 1:49:17 AM

The American hamburger is already Brazilian. Most Americans have never heard of JBS

[X]

Brazil has more cattle than people.

234 million head of cattle versus 213 million people.

The largest country on Earth where cows outnumber citizens.

Brazil is also the largest beef exporter on the planet.

In 1953, José Batista Sobrinho opens a small butcher shop in Anápolis,… pic.twitter.com/76FbOamQ37
— Drew Crawford (@drewcrawford_) May 19, 2026

[/X]

[elmatador] Top Profitable oil companies [graphic]

elmatador — 5/14/2026 11:44:23 AM

Top Profitable oil companies

[elmatador] Brazil’s $377B Data Center Incentives Plan: Can Latin America’s Giant Become a G...

elmatador — 5/14/2026 11:00:17 AM

Brazil’s $377B Data Center Incentives Plan: Can Latin America’s Giant Become a Global Digital Hub?

Brazil has long been the largest economy in Latin America, but in the digital infrastructure world, it has often lagged behind its potential. That may be about to change. In September 2025, the Brazilian government announced a sweeping executive order designed to attract trillions of reais in new digital infrastructure investment — with a major focus on data centers.

By exempting IT and capital equipment from major federal taxes and modernizing regulations, the government expects to unlock as much as 2 trillion reais (US$377 billion) in digital investment over the next decade. If successful, this plan would transform Brazil into not just a regional leader but one of the world’s top cloud, colocation, and wholesale data center markets.

This article explores what the incentives mean for data center development in Brazil, how they will reshape real estate and colocation markets, and why global hyperscalers and investors are paying close attention.

Why Brazil Matters in the Data Center World The Largest Market in Latin America

Brazil accounts for nearly half of Latin America’s GDP and has more than 215 million people. With a fast-growing middle class and surging internet adoption, it represents the region’s largest consumer base for cloud services, fintech, e-commerce, and digital entertainment.

A Connectivity Gateway

Brazil’s coastline hosts numerous subsea cable landings that connect Latin America to the U.S., Europe, and Africa. São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are already regional interconnection hubs.

Rising Enterprise Demand

From banking to healthcare, Brazilian enterprises are rapidly digitizing. They need local hosting, colocation, and hybrid cloud to meet compliance, latency, and performance requirements.

Inside the $377B Incentives Package The Brazilian government’s new framework has three key pillars:

1. Tax Exemptions for IT and Data Center Equipment

The order exempts critical infrastructure — servers, cooling equipment, power systems — from federal import taxes. This dramatically reduces the cost of building and operating data centers.

2. Investment-Friendly Regulation

The plan streamlines permitting and offers fast-track approvals for large digital infrastructure projects. It also includes foreign investment protections to encourage international developers and REITs to enter the market.

3. Long-Term Digital Economy Goals

Brazil is tying the incentives to its national digital transformation plan, aiming to expand cloud adoption, AI capabilities, and e-government services. Data centers are the backbone of this strategy.

Who Will Benefit? Hyperscalers

Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta already operate data centers in Brazil. With the new incentives, they are likely to accelerate regional expansion and possibly establish new cloud regions beyond São Paulo.

Colocation Providers

Carrier-neutral colocation operators will benefit from lower equipment costs and easier regulatory approval. This creates new opportunities to serve enterprises modernizing IT systems.

Real Estate Investors

The incentives make Brazil one of the most attractive emerging markets for data center real estate funds and REITs. With high demand and reduced CapEx, ROI potential is strong.

Local Enterprises

Brazilian companies in fintech, telecom, healthcare, and retail will gain access to more local colocation capacity, enabling compliance with data sovereignty laws while improving performance.

Strategic Locations: Beyond São Paulo São Paulo

Still the country’s largest hub, São Paulo will see renewed investment thanks to its role as the financial and enterprise capital of Brazil.

Rio de Janeiro

As a cable landing site and energy hub, Rio will attract wholesale developments focused on connectivity and sustainability.

Northeast Brazil

Cities like Fortaleza are gaining prominence as subsea cable gateways, connecting Brazil to the U.S. and Europe. Incentives could drive new edge campuses here.

Southern Brazil

Regions like Paraná and Santa Catarina, with growing tech ecosystems, may also see new builds, diversifying Brazil’s digital footprint.

Global Investor Interest Private Equity and REITs

Funds that have already poured billions into U.S. and European campuses are now eyeing Brazil as the next growth frontier.

Sovereign Wealth Funds

Middle Eastern and Asian sovereign investors, active in global digital infrastructure, are likely to join large-scale projects in Brazil.

Development Banks

Institutions like the Inter-American Development Bank may also provide financing support, reducing risk for global players.

Opportunities for Wholesale Colocation Brazil’s incentives create fertile ground for wholesale leasing. Hyperscalers seeking to expand quickly will prefer long-term leases in pre-built, AI-ready campuses. Providers that can deliver 50–100 MW campuses in São Paulo, Rio, and Fortaleza will capture the largest deals.

This mirrors the trend seen in Asia-Pacific a decade ago, when incentives helped countries like Singapore and Malaysia attract mega-campuses.

Challenges Brazil Must Address Power Reliability

While Brazil has abundant hydroelectric resources, grid reliability is uneven. Developers will need on-site generation, renewable PPAs, and microgrids to ensure uptime.

Bureaucracy and Implementation

Although regulations are being streamlined, Brazil’s bureaucracy has historically slowed large projects. Consistent follow-through will be essential.

Community Engagement

Developers must engage local communities, especially in urban hubs, to address concerns about noise, energy use, and land development.

Talent Development

Operating advanced AI-ready campuses requires skilled technicians. Brazil must expand workforce training programs to support growth.

Why This Incentives Plan Is a Global Turning Point Brazil’s new framework is more than just tax relief — it’s a signal to the global market. By lowering barriers and providing clarity, Brazil is positioning itself to compete with top-tier global hubs.

This could transform Latin America from a secondary growth region into a primary destination for hyperscale investment, similar to what happened in Asia-Pacific after Singapore’s rise.

The Road Ahead If executed effectively, Brazil’s $377B incentives plan will reshape the region’s digital economy. Enterprises will gain reliable local infrastructure, hyperscalers will expand services, and investors will tap into one of the fastest-growing markets in the world.

The stakes are enormous. Brazil has the scale, the connectivity, and now the policy framework to become a global digital hub. The next decade will determine whether it fulfills that potential — and whether São Paulo, Rio, and beyond become as central to the digital economy as Northern Virginia or Frankfurt.

datacenterrealestate.com

[elmatador] Brazil is building the physical infrastructure that the global AI economy will r...

elmatador — 5/14/2026 10:47:52 AM

Brazil is building the physical infrastructure that the global AI economy will run on, at a fraction of what equivalent capacity costs in the United States or Western Europe.

Hyperscalers have already done the math.

Most capital allocators have not.

[X]

Brazil is becoming one of the most strategically important nodes on the global internet.

Here is why that matters…

Roughly 95 percent of all intercontinental data flows through submarine fiber optic cables on the ocean floor, and a growing share of those cables land in Brazil.… pic.twitter.com/TrJG3Nbgzt
— Drew Crawford (@drewcrawford_) May 14, 2026

[/X]

[elmatador] Lula won’t sideline China or anyone in rare earths, tells Trump refining stays i...

elmatador — 5/12/2026 1:00:04 PM

Lula won’t sideline China or anyone in rare earths, tells Trump refining stays in Brazil
In a three-hour White House meeting on Thursday, Brazil’s president pitched his country’s minerals to all comers

Published: 7:01am, 8 May 2026
Updated: 7:05am, 8 May 2026

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told US President Donald Trump on Thursday that his country’s rare earth reserves are open to investment from China and any other nation willing to process the minerals on Brazilian soil, resisting pressure to side with Washington in its contest with Beijing over critical mineral supply chains.

“We have no preference. What we want is to share with whoever wants to invest in Brazil,” Lula said at a press conference at the Brazilian embassy in Washington after a three-hour meeting with Trump that ran more than an hour past schedule.

“Americans, Chinese, Germans, Japanese, French, whoever wants to participate with us to help us mine, separate and produce the wealth that these rare earths offer us, they are invited.”

Lula said he told Trump that Brazil had approved a new regulatory framework for critical minerals in Congress on the eve of the visit and was treating the sector as a matter of national sovereignty.
He said his government would not repeat what happened with silver, gold and iron ore, resources that Brazil exported raw for decades without capturing the industrial value.

“With rare earths, we are going to change our behaviour. We want Brazil to be the big winner from this wealth that nature gave us,” he said.

10:37

Why the US is worried about China’s growing influence in South America

[E_K_S] The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) continues to show strong momentum in early 202...

E_K_S — 5/12/2026 12:55:45 PM

The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) continues to show strong momentum in early 2026. As of May 12, 2026, the year-to-date and year-over-year figures are as follows:

EWZ Performance Metrics

PeriodTotal Return (%)

YTD % Gain	+22.94%
YoY (1-Year) % Gain	+55.98%

Top 5 Holdings & WeightingThe fund is highly concentrated, with the top five positions accounting for approximately 42%–43% of the total portfolio. Notably, Petrobras occupies two of the top five spots due to its different share classes (Preferred and Common).

RankHoldingTicker/TypeWeighting (%)

1	Vale S.A.	VALE	10.42%
2	Nu Holdings Ltd.	NU	8.65%
3	Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A.	ITUB	8.17%
4	Petrobras (Preferred Shares)	PETR4	7.57%
5	Petrobras (Common Shares)	PETR3	6.82%

Portfolio Observations

Sector Concentration: The "Big Three" of the Brazilian economy—Iron Ore (Vale), Banking (Itaú/Nu), and Oil (Petrobras)—dictate the direction of this ETF.
The "Nu" Factor: Nu Holdings (Nubank) has become a massive weighting in the fund, reflecting the rapid growth of digital banking in the region.
Yield Support: The 12-month trailing yield remains robust at 4.32%, providing a significant income component to the total return

[elmatador] Brazil's Oil Exports to China Double as Iran War Upends Crude Flows By Charles...

elmatador — 5/12/2026 12:29:23 PM

Brazil's Oil Exports to China Double as Iran War Upends Crude Flows

By Charles Kennedy - May 12, 2026, 8:30 AM CDT

Brazil more than doubled the volume of its oil exports to China, with export values also nearly doubling, in the first quarter of 2026 from a year earlier, as the Middle East conflict and the closed Strait of Hormuz are re-arranging global commodity flows.

The value of Brazil’s crude oil exports to China surged by 94.6% to $7.2 billion in the first quarter, per Brazilian government data compiled by the Brazil-China Business Council. The volume of oil exports, 16 million metric tons, was 122% higher compared to the first quarter of 2025, according to the data reported by China Daily.

As China, and Asia as a whole, lost a major crude supply stream from the Middle East due to the closed Strait of Hormuz, buyers turned to alternatives in the latter part of the first quarter to partly offset the worst supply disruption in the history of oil markets.

China boosted imports from Brazil and other sources in March, although official figures point to Chinese refiners slashing total imports by 20% in April, to the lowest level since July 2022, amid soaring prices and disrupted flows through Hormuz.

Brazil’s share of total Chinese crude imports jumped from around 10% in January to about 18% in April, even as China’s overall import demand weakened, data showed earlier this month. The 1.43 million barrels per day of Brazilian crude that Chinese refiners received last month is the highest monthly reading on record, surpassing the previous record posted in February.

“Brazil benefits from higher oil export values,” geopolitical analyst Marco Fernandes, a member of the BRICS Civil Council, told China Daily.

“Given that the price per barrel has doubled from December 2025 levels, Brazil could set an export record this year, especially if the war drags on. However, this situation also exposes a Brazilian weakness: the country's insufficient oil refining capacity,” the analyst added.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

[elmatador] Petrobras has released its business plan 2025-2029 with investments of USD 111 b...

elmatador — 5/11/2026 3:39:57 AM

Petrobras has released its business plan 2025-2029 with investments of USD 111 billion

Low-carbon initiatives have brought in USD 16.3 billion, an 42% increase over the previous plan

agencia.petrobras.com.br

[elmatador] Jet fuel crisis to help Embraer. Both weaker demand and greater cost pressure h...

elmatador — 5/5/2026 3:34:19 AM

Jet fuel crisis to help Embraer.

Both weaker demand and greater cost pressure have driven airlines to switch to smaller or more fuel-efficient aircraft.

with some fuel costs doubling in early 2026 due to supply disruptions—can significantly benefit Embraer's E-Jets market, particularly the E2 family.
High fuel costs force airlines to abandon less efficient aircraft in favor of modern, fuel-efficient alternatives to maintain profitability, driving demand for Embraer’s newest, most efficient jets.

Elmat: Fuel is typically the largest operating expense for airlines, usually accounting for 20% to 30% of total operating costs. For many carriers, it represents over 40% of costs when prices are high, making it a critical, volatile factor in profitability

High fuel costs often lead to "right-sizing," where airlines replace larger, less efficient narrow-body aircraft with smaller jets on lower-density routes to ensure higher load factor

Embraer’s E2 family of aircraft enables airlines to build operational flexibility, match capacity with demand, and add frequencies – all enhancing connectivity. E190-E2 and E195-E2 are the most fuel-efficient single aisle aircraft flying today, delivering 17.3% and 29% better fuel efficiency per seat respectively, compared to previous generation E-Jets.

[nicewatch] From Brazil’s rainforest to Rio de Janeiro, an all-Indigenous soccer team debuts...

nicewatch — 5/3/2026 10:05:05 PM

From Brazil’s rainforest to Rio de Janeiro, an all-Indigenous soccer team debuts with victory

apnews.com

[elmatador] This weaken his government

elmatador — 4/30/2026 1:52:30 PM

[elmatador] Brazil's most underappreciated strategic asset is a tree. Brazilian eucalyptus i...

elmatador — 4/30/2026 1:51:22 PM

Brazil's most underappreciated strategic asset is a tree.
Brazilian eucalyptus is the most efficient timber crop on Earth.
Eucalyptus in Brazil reaches harvest in 6 to 7 years.
Pine in the U.S. South takes 22 to 40 years.
Pine in Canada and Scandinavia takes 60 to 100 years.

Brazil's average eucalyptus yield is 35.7 cubic meters of wood per hectare every year.

That is almost double the productivity of pine plantations in the Northern Hemisphere.
Same hectare. Same year. Twice the wood.

Brazil now operates more than 10 million hectares of planted forests.
Three out of every four trees planted in Brazil for industrial use are eucalyptus.

10 million hectares of forest can sequester, on average, approximately 650 million tonnes of annually. However, this capacity varies widely depending on ecosystem health, with one estimate suggesting that 10 million hectares of mature forest could store around 10 billion tonnes of CO2 over a long growth period

Suzano alone operates 2.7 million hectares across seven Brazilian states.

That makes Suzano the largest pulp producer on the planet, and Brazil the global leader in cellulose, tissue, and packaging supply chains.

Climate, soil, and decades of breeding research at Embrapa.

Three structural advantages no Northern Hemisphere forestry operation can replicate.

The most underappreciated industrial advantage in the world is growing on Brazilian land right now.

Most investors are still treating forestry as a slow asset class.

In Brazil, it compounds in 6 years.

[DinoNavarre] [X] Huge huge loss for Lula in Brazil tonight. For the first time ever in moder...

DinoNavarre — 4/30/2026 7:49:19 AM

[X]

Huge huge loss for Lula in Brazil tonight. For the first time ever in modern history (and first time sinde 1894), the presidents Supreme Court nominee was rejected by the senate

Worse, Lula paid R$12 bb in emendas to buy off the senate and was quite sure he was going to win https://t.co/W6t0nsNYDf
— BowTiedBrazil (@bowtiedbrazil) April 30, 2026

[/X]

[elmatador] Brazil virtuous cycle in the making Rising equities ? strong corporate earning...

elmatador — 4/30/2026 2:20:33 AM

Brazil virtuous cycle in the making
Rising equities ? strong corporate earnings, investor sentiment is positive, and domestic capital is active.

Strengthening BRL ? foreign inflows are supporting the currency, reducing depreciation risk, and making local assets more attractive.

Falling CDS spreads ? sovereign perception is improving, lowering the cost of capital and encouraging more participation from global funds. and the loop repeats.

[elmatador] Foreign capital has poured into Brazilian equities at a pace not seen in years. ...

elmatador — 4/28/2026 4:14:15 AM

Foreign capital has poured into Brazilian equities at a pace not seen in years.

Year-to-date inflows have reached roughly R$68 billion (~US$13 billion) — already more than 2.5x the total for all of 2025, with four consecutive months above R$10 billion.

The first 15 days of April alone attracted R$14.7 billion, placing Brazil as the #1 destination for foreign capital in Latin America, ahead of Mexico, Chile and Colombia.

The market has responded accordingly: the Ibovespa broke above 199,000 points for the first time in history, and the real has appreciated roughly 9% against the dollar year-to-date.

The relevant nuance for strategic capital is that this rally has been almost entirely foreign-driven.

Domestic funds remain anchored in fixed income given the 14.75% Selic, which suggests the re-rating of Brazilian assets is early rather than late.

Source:
Diego Saito
Founding Partner at CRG
São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

[elmatador] The Demographic Dividend is being reformulated. Demographic Dividend is the a...

elmatador — 4/27/2026 4:29:03 AM

The Demographic Dividend is being reformulated.

Demographic Dividend is the accelerated economic growth potential that occurs when a population's age structure shifts, resulting in a higher ratio of working-age adults (15–64) compared to dependents (young and old).

Ending of the demographic dividend is an economic transition. Aging population, shrinking labor force, higher dependency ratios, and slower economic growth, often necessitating a shift toward the "second demographic dividend"—wealth accumulation rather than rapid labor.

Before I continue I need to explain the Set of Circumstances.
Grasping the set of circumstances at a given time, one can infer how things will develop in the future.
- Demographic dividend ending.
- AI coming on stream
- Brazil becoming a top oil exporter.
- Over and above its commodities exports

Back to the economy:
Costs of supporting the old climbs while compensated by the drop of costs of supporting the unproductive kids.

Here is the killer:
Remember AI coming on stream? The developed economies are already hyper efficient so that the gains enabled by AI are puny.
Brazil's economy is so inefficient that it can harvest a lot of efficiency gains.

I am assembling all the pieces of the puzzle.

[Selectric II] Your bacon and pigs analogy is interesting and the irony isn't missed on me. Sm...

Selectric II — 4/24/2026 6:33:00 AM

Your bacon and pigs analogy is interesting and the irony isn't missed on me. Smithfield Foods, founded in 1936 in Smithfield,Virginia, is the world's largest pig and pork producer. A Chinese company now owns Smithfield Foods -- purchased in 2013, with the Obama Administration's approval. Pork is a major protein source in China and they eat more of it per capita than Americans do.

" ... Then known as Shuanghui Group, WH Group purchased Smithfield Foods in 2013 for $4.72 billion. [9] [10] It was the largest Chinese acquisition of an American company to date. [11] The acquisition of Smithfield's 146,000 acres of land made WH Group, headquartered in Luohe, Henan province, one of the largest overseas owners of American farmland...." en.wikipedia.org

Smithfield has been on an acquisition tear since then, most recently adding Nathan's Famous in January, 2026.

Smithfield became publicly traded in 2025, initially offering only 10% to the public. WH Group still retains 88%. en.wikipedia.org

What ownership interests are Americans and American companies permitted to have in Chinese rare earth producers and refiners?

[elmatador] Brazil posted a record trade surplus of $14.2 billion in the first quarter of 20...

elmatador — 4/24/2026 6:16:16 AM

Brazil posted a record trade surplus of $14.2 billion in the first quarter of 2026, marking a 47.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025 thanks in large part to high oil prices.

Brazil’s crude oil exports climbed 31% Y/Y to $12.56 billion in the first quarter, with China accounting for 57% of oil exports at $7.2 billion, and 65% of crude exports in March alone. In contrast, oil exports to the U.S. collapsed by 40% to just $632 million while overall exports fell 18.7% due to new tariff pressures and shifting corporate strategies.

Interestingly, Brazil’s defense exports more than doubled to $931 million during the quarter, with Germany, Bulgaria, the United Arab Emirates, the United States and Portugal major buyers of Brazilian defense products.

Overall, Brazil’s total exports increased 7.1% Y/Y in the first quarter to $82.3 billion while imports increased marginally by 1.3% to $76.9 billion.

Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services has revised its 2026 trade projections, forecasting a $72.1 billion surplus for full-year FY 2026, reflecting an expected 5.9% increase in the trade balance compared to the previous result.

oilprice.com

[elmatador] Countries wanted the bacon without raising the pigs enabling China to achieve a ...

elmatador — 4/24/2026 5:16:27 AM

Countries wanted the bacon without raising the pigs enabling China to achieve a near-monopoly of over 90% in refining rare Earths.
Wanting to keep its clean hands and farming out the dirty work to other countries, Western nations historically prioritized cleaner, cheaper alternatives over domestic production.

Rare earth processing incurs high environmental risks, intense capital costs, strict regulatory environments. By controlling 70% of mining and 90% of processing, China can suppress prices, making it financially difficult for new competitors to enter the market.

Well, you can't manufacture anything with the cleaner landscape. It is only use is for people to take photos and walk and camp around it.

Due to the long-standing concentration of the industry in China, many countries lack the specialized knowledge and domestic supply chains needed to process the materials into finished, usable metals.

China once had the power, used it.

Now Western countries learned the lesson

[elmatador] Two days after USA Rare Earth, Inc. (Nasdaq: USAR)bought Brazilian rare earths ...

elmatador — 4/23/2026 2:22:45 AM

Two days after USA Rare Earth, Inc. (Nasdaq: USAR) bought Brazilian rare earths miner Serra Verde Group

Donald Trump’s top trade official Jamieson Greer has told US allies they must pay more for critical minerals sourced from outside China as Washington tries to break Beijing’s stranglehold on supplies.

Now the Western Hemisphere is serious about Rare Earths ! Win-Win partnership Brazil- United States

[elmatador] [X] While the Middle East burns, Latin America is quietly becoming the world's ...

elmatador — 4/21/2026 5:58:47 AM

[X]

While the Middle East burns, Latin America is quietly becoming the world's safe oil powerhouse.

🌎 Latin America crude production 2025 → 2030:

🇧🇷 Brazil: 3.77M → 4.76M b/d

🇻🇪 Venezuela: 1.08M → 1.50M b/d

🇲🇽 Mexico: 1.46M → 1.07M b/d ⚠️

🇦🇷 Argentina: 0.80M → 1.38M b/d… pic.twitter.com/nW4XepSPoq
— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) April 20, 2026

[/X]

[elmatador] Scramble for biodiesel as price drops below regular diesel for first time Oil sq...

elmatador — 4/21/2026 5:17:51 AM

Scramble for biodiesel as price drops below regular diesel for first time Oil squeeze driven by Iran war triggers rush to secure replacements

Ryohtaroh Satoh in London Published APR 17 2026

Fuel suppliers in Asia are rushing to secure biofuels after they became cheaper than their fossil-fuel counterparts for the first time, as the oil squeeze driven by the Iran war prompts a scramble for replacements.

Benchmark biodiesel prices in Europe moved to a discount to traditional diesel in late March, according to Argus Media, while Asian palm oil futures also slipped below diesel in early April.

Asian oil suppliers were making “more and more” enquiries to secure diesel substitute hydrotreated vegetable oil, said Matti Lievonen, chief executive of Hong Kong-based renewable fuel producer EcoCeres, adding that much was destined for Australia, where the supply crunch is particularly severe.

While he said demand was probably being driven by oil majors racing to secure diesel substitutes, he added that the market fundamentals were also shifting, as renewable fuels became more competitive and suppliers began to “think differently” about fuels not tied to the Middle East.

Demand destruction

Prices for oil-based fuels soared at the start of the Iran war and near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and remain high despite a tentative ceasefire.

Those of renewable alternatives, however, are relatively stable because of “their own distinct fundamentals”, including government policies and feedstock supply such as vegetable oil, according to Giulia Squadrin, a biofuels specialist at Argus.

Improving economics for biofuels has also prompted policymakers to raise blending mandates that require a minimum amount of biofuel in transportation products. Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, said in late March it would increase its target to an ambitious 50 per cent from July, up from the current 40 per cent. Malaysia also plans to raise its mandate to 15 per cent from 10 per cent.

Many countries remain in “wait-and-see” mode on raising biofuel mandates, according to Lievonen, who argued that higher prices for crude-based fuels would inevitably push policymakers to consider the energy security benefits of renewables.

“Self-evidently, these prices will make people think” about building a more “circular economy”, he said, particularly in parts of Asia where feedstocks can be sourced domestically.

The European Commission has urged member states to prepare for prolonged disruption linked to the Middle East, noting in a letter last month that countries were “encouraged to make timely preparations”, while adding that they were “welcome to explore” greater use of biofuels to ease pressure on fuel markets.

However, cost and production limitations remain a key barrier. European benchmark HVO still trades at roughly twice the price of fossil fuel, even though the premium has narrowed from about three times.

According to the International Energy Agency, biofuel consumption will more than double in 2030 compared with 2023 levels to 6mn barrels a day of oil equivalent, but this would only consist of about 6 per cent of the current global oil supply.

A sustained move into biofuels could have wider consequences. Many feedstocks, including vegetable oils, are key components of the global food supply, raising the risk of higher food prices.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s vegetable oil price index averaged 183.1 points in March, up 5 per cent from February and the highest level since June 2022.

In aviation, sustainable aviation fuel has also narrowed its price gap with conventional jet fuel, but the price remains about 60 per cent more expensive.

“The gap is still too big to be attractive to the airlines,” said Mylène Scholnick, adviser to UK aircraft leasing company World Star Aviation and former head of global fleet management at Amazon Air, adding that SAF supply remained too limited to serve as a meaningful short-term alternative.

Whether the recent shift in biofuel economics will endure remains uncertain.

“For people to invest more, they have to believe it is structural,” said Alan Gelder of Wood Mackenzie, adding that short-term price inversions did not necessarily signal a lasting market shift. Commodities Note, every weekday

[Ditchdigger] Better link serraverde.com

Ditchdigger — 4/20/2026 9:35:19 AM

[Ditchdigger] USA Rare Earth announced on Monday that it agreed to acquire 100% of Brazil's Se...

Ditchdigger — 4/20/2026 9:14:33 AM

USA Rare Earth announced on Monday that it agreed to acquire 100% of Brazil's Serra Verde Group in a cash-and-stock deal valued at about $2.8 billion. Serra Verde's rare-earth mine and processing plant will enhance the metals maker's mine-to-magnets supply chain amid geopolitical tensions between the US and China.

The deal, which comprises 126.8 million shares of new USA Rare Earth common stock and $300 million in cash, is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and closing conditions.

"Serra Verde's Pela Ema mine is a one-of-a-kind asset and the only producer outside Asia capable of supplying all four magnetic rare earths at scale, together with other vital REEs [rare-earth elements], such as yttrium,"

breakingthenews.net

[elmatador] The chart does not show reserves.

elmatador — 4/19/2026 1:42:52 PM

[E_K_S] Thought this chart was a bit misleading . . . Grok confirmed so . . . Venezuel...

E_K_S — 4/19/2026 12:12:19 PM

Thought this chart was a bit misleading . . .

Grok confirmed so . . .

Venezuela has by far the world's largest proven oil reserves—roughly 17 times larger than Brazil's.

worldometers.info +1

According to consistent data from sources like the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), OPEC, and others (as of 2024–2025 figures), Venezuela holds ~303 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves. This represents about 17–19% of the global total and puts it well ahead of every other country.

brazilenergyinsight.com

For direct comparison to the Brazil post you linked (which cites 17.5 billion barrels of proven reserves as of recent data):

Venezuela: ~303 billion barrels
Brazil: 17.488 billion barrels (official ANP data as of Dec 31, 2025—exactly matching the ~17.5B figure in the tweet, with 3.84% growth that year)

Venezuela's reserves are ~17.3× larger than Brazil's.

en.clickpetroleoegas.com.br

Quick top 10 context (2024–2025 proven reserves)

Rank

Country

Proven Reserves (billion barrels)

% of World Total (approx.)

1	Venezuela	303	17–19%
2	Saudi Arabia	267	15%
3	Iran	209	12%
4	Canada	163	9%
5	Iraq	145	8%
...	Brazil	17.5	~1%

(Data from Worldometers/EIA/OPEC-aligned sources; minor annual revisions occur.)

worldometers.info

Why the big gap in real-world impact?

Production: Brazil hit a record ~3.77–3.8 million barrels per day in 2025 and is still climbing (mostly easy-to-develop offshore pre-salt). Venezuela's output is far lower—recently ~900k–1.2 million bpd (including some recovery in 2025–early 2026)—despite the enormous reserves.

worldometers.info +1
Type of oil: Most of Venezuela’s reserves are extra-heavy crude in the Orinoco Belt. It’s technically challenging/expensive to extract and refine without major investment and expertise.
Other factors: Decades of underinvestment, infrastructure decay, and external pressures have kept production well below potential. Brazil, by contrast, has rapidly developed new fields, added reserves faster than it produces them (as the post notes: +2B barrels in 2025 alone), and scaled output aggressively.

The tweet correctly highlights Brazil as a success story of reserve growth + production growth + a clean energy grid. Venezuela shows the opposite extreme: world-leading reserves on paper, but far less realized output. This is why investors often price Brazil as a “risk” opportunity while Venezuela’s story has been one of missed potential for years.

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[elmatador] Brazil Energy: [X] 🇧🇷 Brazil Energy: Brazil sits on 17.5 billion barrels o...

elmatador — 4/19/2026 9:10:06 AM

Brazil Energy:

[X]

🇧🇷 Brazil Energy:

Brazil sits on 17.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves...

Growing every year.

The oil is buried under 5,000 to 7,000 meters of ocean, rock, and salt.

They drilled through it anyway.

81% of those reserves sit in offshore pre-salt fields that nobody knew… pic.twitter.com/WtAqVIullB
— Drew Crawford (@drewcrawford_) April 18, 2026

[/X]

[nicewatch] Meant to say within 100 miles from the coast. None of us had much money then but...

nicewatch — 4/15/2026 12:36:39 PM

Meant to say within 100 miles from the coast. None of us had much money then but I figured out a way to make it happen! Somehow I never got a speeding ticket or arrested on either trip. Not all of my colleagues can claim the same. :-) Oh the stories and experiences...

[elmatador] I had no money but wished to travel. I got a field job that paid and I could tra...

elmatador — 4/15/2026 9:04:01 AM

I had no money but wished to travel. I got a field job that paid and I could travel.
You know when you are young have energy time but no money.

I know Brazil's South from Sao Paulo down and a bit of Southeast.

I was never in the vast center west, North and Northeast

[nicewatch] I was lucky enough to tour my country on a road trip after my senior year of hig...

nicewatch — 4/15/2026 5:01:34 AM

I was lucky enough to tour my country on a road trip after my senior year of high school and then some. It was educational as well as interesting. You have no idea. :-)

Studied Brazil's vast geography enough to determine that I am not well suited to even visit 80-90% of it but there's a still a ton of people and rich culture up and down their eastern coast within 100 miles. That's what I want to see and obviously need to learn more Portuguese to help myself down there!

[elmatador] Imagine If I had written "the first time I visit the US" You would say Wait, the...

elmatador — 4/15/2026 4:26:52 AM

Imagine If I had written "the first time I visit the US"
You would say
Wait, the US is big

You can visit new England.

The Pacific Northwest
Deep South
Southern west
the Rockies

Size complicate things.

Then you are a smart guy and would say:

Depend on what you want to see (my own list)

Want to see a bunch of Jews piled on top of each other in NYC?
The socialist of San Francisco?
The Latin America branch called Florida?
The rednecks land aka Texas?
Or a nice drive on the Southwest?

In Brazil you can by pass 90% of the country's area which basically unpopulated.

[nicewatch] Makes sense. I'm embarrassed to say I've owned a smidgen of EWZ for years. The r...

nicewatch — 4/15/2026 3:59:20 AM

Makes sense. I'm embarrassed to say I've owned a smidgen of EWZ for years. The real story is the first time I visit Brazil, and how I exactly do that? :-)

[elmatador] BlackRock Brazil Fund Records Largest Daily Inflow Since 2017 By Leda Alvim an...

elmatador — 4/15/2026 3:46:45 AM

BlackRock Brazil Fund Records Largest Daily Inflow Since 2017

By Leda Alvim and Gabriel Diniz Tavares

April 14, 2026 at 6:55 PM GMT+3

Investors poured money into BlackRock’s exchange-traded fund tracking Brazilian stocks at the fastest pace in almost nine years on Monday, as a resurgence in global risk appetite fuels a surge in the country’s equity market.

(paywall)

[elmatador] Petrobras Revives $1 Billion Fertilizer Project to Cut Brazil’s Import Dependenc...

elmatador — 4/14/2026 3:29:03 AM

Petrobras Revives $1 Billion Fertilizer Project to Cut Brazil’s Import Dependence
UFN-III restart signals strategic return to fertilizers, targeting large-scale urea and ammonia output by 2029 to support agribusiness demand.

Apr 13, 2026 8:13 PM

By Brazil Stock Guide – Petrobras (PETR3, PETR4) has approved the resumption of construction at its Nitrogen Fertilizer Unit III (UFN-III) in Três Lagoas, Mato Grosso do Sul, marking the revival of a project halted since 2015 and reinforcing a broader strategic shift back into fertilizers. The company’s board decision unlocks an estimated $1 billion investment, with commercial operations expected to begin in 2029 — a long-term bet tied to Brazil’s agribusiness expansion and supply security.

The project had been under review since 2023, when Petrobras repositioned fertilizers as a strategic segment. Final approval suggests the company has aligned economic returns with capital discipline — a key concern following years of deleveraging and a tighter focus on higher-return upstream assets. Petrobras said the project delivers a positive net present value (NPV) across all internal scenarios, meeting governance and investment approval standards.

Capacity and market positioning

UFN-III is designed to produce around 3,600 tons per day of urea and 2,200 tons per day of ammonia, with surplus ammonia available for sale. The scale is significant in a market where Brazil remains heavily reliant on imports, particularly for nitrogen-based fertilizers. Domestic urea consumption stands at roughly 8 million tons per year, driven largely by crops such as corn, sugarcane and coffee.

The plant’s location in Três Lagoas — close to key agricultural regions in the Midwest, South and Southeast — underpins its economic rationale. By reducing logistics costs and improving supply reliability, Petrobras aims to capture structural demand from agribusiness, one of Brazil’s most resilient growth engines.

Execution and strategic shift

Construction is expected to resume in the first half of 2026, with the project projected to generate around 8,000 jobs during the build phase. Beyond its industrial scope, UFN-III also carries political and economic weight, reinforcing Petrobras’ role as a driver of domestic development in strategic sectors.

The move represents a notable shift. After years of divestments and a sharp focus on oil and gas exploration and production, Petrobras is once again expanding into adjacent segments — albeit under the banner of capital discipline. For investors, the key question is whether this diversification can sustain competitive returns or reopen concerns about capital allocation.

What’s at stake

The UFN-III restart comes amid heightened global concerns over food security and supply chains. For Brazil, reducing dependence on imported fertilizers has long been a policy objective, but one that requires scale and cost competitiveness to achieve. Petrobras is positioning itself as part of that solution. Execution, however, will be critical: projects of this size carry risks around cost overruns, delays and return dilution. In a cycle marked by a stronger strategic role for the company, discipline may matter as much as ambition.

brazilstockguide.com

[elmatador] Brazil, Guyana could have most to gain in oil sector Brazil, the region’s larg...

elmatador — 4/13/2026 7:15:26 AM

Brazil, Guyana could have most to gain in oil sector

Brazil, the region’s largest oil producer at around 4 million barrels per day, is already exporting upwards of 3 million barrels per day and has limited short-term capacity to increase. However, according to the nation’s energy expansion plan, production could rise to 4.4 BPD or more in the coming years.

With many countries, especially in Asia, searching to fill gaps in their supply, Brazil could stand to gain from oil exports.

Cristiano Pinto da Costa, president of Shell Brasil, called the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict an “enormous opportunity” for Brazil to attract investment, citing the country’s geopolitical stability and reliability as a producer.

According to Matt Smith, lead oil analyst for the Americas at commodity intelligence firm Kpler, for Brazil, it’s less about increasing production and more about redirecting barrels away from the U.S. and towards higher-paying Asian markets — something it was already doing before the strikes.

“We’re seeing Brazil already going gangbusters in terms of production. It’s basically at a record,” Smith told Latin America Reports. “And so what we may see is those barrels being pulled away from other countries to Asia instead.”

He pointed out that the shift in markets was already underway before the war, with over half of Brazil’s oil exports destined for China, as well as an uptick in shipments to India.

Diego Rivera Rivota, an energy researcher at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, cautioned that it may not be all upside for Brazil however.

Any gains during the crisis are likely temporary, he explained, saying, “When you’re in crisis, I guess any volumes are useful. But can [Brazil] compete with the humongous series of volumes that flow through Hormuz to the Asia Pacific? I don’t think so.”

And while Petrobras may benefit from the crisis’ windfall, the macroeconomic picture is more complicated.

El País reported that food costs could go up as Brazil’s transportation is largely truck-based and its agricultural center is heavily dependent on imported fertilizers tied to natural gas prices.

“Probably the balance sheet of Petrobras and other companies would look heftier. But the balance sheet of, you know, maybe some food distributor or supermarkets or other companies would not feel the same way. It’s very hard to balance that as a society,” Rivera told Latin America Reports.

Another South American country, the small but oil-rich Guyana, could also stand to benefit from the Strait’s closure.

Oil production has been growing rapidly, with new crude streams coming online that are beginning to reach Asian markets.

Smith noted, “As we’ve seen Guyanese production continuing to increase as they’ve added new crude streams, we’re starting to see some of these barrels heading to Asia. This developing situation is definitely going to pull more Guyanese barrels into Asia.”

latinamericareports.com

[elmatador] Brazil exporters reroute beef, chicken shipments to blunt Iran war impact By R...

elmatador — 4/13/2026 7:13:44 AM

Brazil exporters reroute beef, chicken shipments to blunt Iran war impact

By Roberto Samora
March 28, 202612:54 AM GMT+3Updated March 28, 2026

SAO PAULO, March 27 (Reuters) - Brazilian beef and chicken exporters expect only limited disruption from the Iran war, even as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz forces companies to ?reroute shipments and absorb higher costs to keep supplies moving.
The conflict has raised risks ?for two of Brazil's biggest meat export businesses, especially poultry, which is heavily exposed to the Middle East. But exporters said they were finding alternative sea and land routes to serve buyers in the region, while ?strong demand elsewhere was helping cushion the impact on beef trade.

Chicken exporters said shipments ?were still flowing to key Middle East markets despite the logistical upheaval. Industry ?group ABPA President Ricardo Santin told Reuters that March exports were on track to exceed the 476,000 ?metric tons shipped in the same month last year.
To keep cargo moving, exporters have rerouted shipments ?through the Red Sea and Suez Canal and used alternative ports and overland trucking to reach buyers in Iraq, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and elsewhere in the region, Santin said.
"Those are alternatives that take longer and ?are more costly," he said, adding that higher fuel, storage, transport and war-risk costs were being ?shared in part with importers seeking to maintain inventories.

The Middle East accounted for about 30% of Brazil's chicken ?exports ?in 2025, according to Datagro, making poultry one of the Brazilian farm sectors most exposed to the conflict. Even so, Santin said there were no signs of excess supply building up in the domestic market.
Beef exporters also said the war had so far had only a limited effect, ?although industry group Abrafrigo warned ?on Friday that ?a broader conflict could further raise logistics costs.
At the same time, the sector is also adjusting to China's safeguard measures on beef imports, which ?limit Brazil's access to a 1.1-million-ton quota subject to a lower tariff; ?volumes above ?that face a steeper 55% duty.
Abrafrigo said Brazil, the world's largest beef exporter, had been redirecting shipments to markets including the U.S., the European Union, Chile and Russia, while tighter global cattle supplies ?were also ?supporting demand.

In the first two months of 2026, Brazil's exports ?of fresh and processed beef, including offal and other byproducts, rose 39% in value to $2.865 billion, while volumes increased 22% ?to 557,240 tons, Abrafrigo said.

Reporting by Roberto Samora; Writing by Kylie Madry; Editing by David Gregorio

[elmatador] Angola opens its farmland. Brazil and China are racing in By Samuel Ncube Key P...

elmatador — 4/12/2026 9:38:28 AM

Angola opens its farmland. Brazil and China are racing in
By Samuel Ncube

Key Points
— Angola is granting roughly 60,000 hectares to Brazilian farmers in Cuanza-Norte province as part of a $120 million cooperation deal backed by BNDES, Banco do Brasil, and Angola’s sovereign wealth fund — more than 30 Brazilian agribusiness companies have already signed up
— China’s state-owned CITIC is running a parallel program targeting 100,000 hectares with $250 million in investment over five years, focused on soy and corn exports back to China — a strategic food security play rather than technology transfer
— Angola has 35 million hectares of arable land but cultivates only about 15%, imports more than half its food, and feeds just 37% of domestic demand from local production — making it one of the world’s last untapped agricultural frontiers

The governor of Angola’s Cuanza-Norte province, João Diogo Gaspar, stood before a delegation of Brazilian businessmen and offered them 60,000 hectares of farmland. The deal is backed by $120 million in financing, with Brazil’s BNDES lending for the export of tractors and equipment, Banco do Brasil channeling funds through its export financing program, and Angola’s sovereign wealth fund contributing 17% of the total.

More than 30 Brazilian agribusiness companies have formalized their interest. Agriculture Minister Carlos Fávaro, who led a delegation to Angola in January, identified opportunities in corn, soy, cotton, beef, and pork. The model is built around technology transfer — bringing Brazil’s expertise in tropical agriculture to soil conditions strikingly similar to the Cerrado, the savanna biome that Brazilian research and investment transformed from wasteland into one of the world’s breadbaskets.
Two models, one prize

Brazil is not the only suitor. China’s state-owned CITIC conglomerate announced a parallel program targeting 100,000 hectares across Cuanza-Norte and Malanje provinces, with $250 million in investment over five years. CITIC has already acquired 8,000 hectares and begun clearing land, aiming for yields of 8 tons of corn and 5 tons of soy per hectare.
Angola Opens Its Farmland. Brazil and China Are Racing In
Angola Opens Its Farmland. Brazil and China Are Racing In. (Photo Internet reproduction)

The difference is strategic intent. Brazil’s approach is private-sector-led with government support, focused on selling equipment and expertise. China’s model is state-coordinated, integrated with infrastructure financing, and designed to secure grain supply — 60% of CITIC’s output is earmarked for export, primarily back to China. Beijing has spent two decades building Angola‘s roads, railways, and power plants through oil-backed credit lines. Agriculture extends that partnership into food security.
Why Angola needs both

Angola sits on 35 million hectares of arable land but cultivates roughly 15%. It imports more than half its food. Local production covers just 37% of domestic demand for a population of 37 million that the UN projects will double to 70 million by 2050.

Before the 1975–2002 civil war, Angola exported coffee, cotton, and bananas. That ended decades ago. The World Bank’s IFC has expressed interest in financing the Brazilian deal, and the Camabatela Plateau in Cuanza-Norte is considered one of Africa’s premier agricultural frontiers. Risks remain: weak infrastructure, regulatory uncertainty, and adapting foreign models to local conditions. But Angola’s arithmetic is simple — it cannot feed its people alone, and two agricultural heavyweights are offering to help on terms that serve different enough interests to coexist.

farmlandgrab.org