Silicon Investor - Point and Figure Charting

[J.B.C.] I was messaging w/ a friend this morning. Short term it’s(market) weak my long ...

J.B.C. — 3/10/2026 12:18:30 PM

I was messaging w/ a friend this morning. Short term it’s(market) weak my long term indicator is still positive.

Basically I’m on the fence.

[J.B.C.] [youtube video]

J.B.C. — 2/26/2026 4:48:48 PM

[Ms. Baby Boomer] Stocks Retreat on AI Concerns and Geopolitical Risks .... [graphic] barch...

Ms. Baby Boomer — 2/19/2026 10:38:01 AM

Stocks Retreat on AI Concerns and Geopolitical Risks ....

barchart.com

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[J.B.C.] Interesting on the silver market last week. [youtube video]

J.B.C. — 2/1/2026 1:47:15 PM

[Ms. Baby Boomer] Markets swing in uneasy trading after Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to be nex...

Ms. Baby Boomer — 1/30/2026 10:02:29 AM

Markets swing in uneasy trading after Trump nominates
Kevin Warsh to be next Fed chair ...

barchart.com

TGIF ....

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[Ms. Baby Boomer] Could be looking at the end of the Bull Market ... I am watching Jerome Powell'...

Ms. Baby Boomer — 1/28/2026 3:11:09 PM

Could be looking at the end of the Bull Market ...

I am watching Jerome Powell's News Conference ....

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[J.B.C.] [youtube video]

J.B.C. — 1/16/2026 9:02:11 PM

[J.B.C.] [X] Down 15% YTD at some point during the year and then finished up more than 1...

J.B.C. — 1/5/2026 9:16:52 AM

[X]

Down 15% YTD at some point during the year and then finished up more than 15%?

The next year has never been lower and it s up 19% on avg (all double digits well).

The slingshot is real. pic.twitter.com/REliSKfqNm
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) January 5, 2026

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[Ms. Baby Boomer] Filling the Gap in S&P 500 Chart .... M

Ms. Baby Boomer — 12/18/2025 3:02:47 PM

[Ms. Baby Boomer] S&P 500 Trading below 50 dma ... barchart.com Looks like a Double Top IMO .......

Ms. Baby Boomer — 12/17/2025 11:48:11 AM

S&P 500 Trading below 50 dma ...

barchart.com

Looks like a Double Top IMO ....

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[Ms. Baby Boomer] Of course II is ... Who is the Underwriter for the IPO ??? Remember, Elon was ...

Ms. Baby Boomer — 12/14/2025 5:04:02 PM

Of course II is ...

Who is the Underwriter for the IPO ???

Remember, Elon was going to have Colonies on MARS ...

Went to The Mall for a Holiday Manicure and Pedicure ....

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[J.B.C.] Oh my: [X] Elon Musk just confirmed the most INSANE IPO in history. SpaceX is...

J.B.C. — 12/14/2025 4:55:39 PM

Oh my:

[X]

Elon Musk just confirmed the most INSANE IPO in history.

SpaceX is going public in 2026.

$1.5 TRILLION valuation. Raising $30+ billion.

That's the biggest IPO ever made. Beating Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record from 2019.

But here's what everyone's missing:

This isn't about… pic.twitter.com/l0WXQJrzby
— Ricardo (@Ric_RTP) December 14, 2025

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[Ms. Baby Boomer] Tumbling tech drags Wall Street off its records and toward its worst day in...

Ms. Baby Boomer — 12/12/2025 1:00:44 PM

Tumbling tech drags Wall Street off its records and toward its
worst day in 3 weeks ....

NEW YORK (AP) — More drops for superstars caught up in Wall Street's artificial-intelligence frenzy are knocking the U.S. stock market off its record highs on Friday.

The S&P 500 fell 0.9% from its all-time high set the day before and was heading toward its worst day in three weeks. The weakness for tech stocks yanked the Nasdaq composite down by a market-leading 1.4%, as of 12:48 p.m. Eastern time, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back 153 points, or 0.3%, after setting its own record the day before.

Broadcom dragged the market lower and tumbled 10.8% even though the chip company reported a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Analysts called the performance solid, and CEO Hock Tan said strong 74% growth in AI semiconductor revenue helped lead the way.

But investors may have been concerned with some of Broadcom’s financial forecasts, including how much profit it can squeeze out of each $1 of revenue. The AI heavyweight may also have simply run out of momentum after its stock came into the day with a surge of 75.3% for the year so far, more than quadruple the S&P 500’s gain.

Broadcom’s stumble came a day after Oracle plunged nearly 11% despite likewise reporting a bigger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected.

The stock market also felt some pressure from the bond market, where the yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.19% from 4.14% late Thursday. Higher yields can discourage investors from paying high prices for stocks and other investments, particularly when critics say they already look too expensive.

Friday's drops for AI superstars continue a jagged return toward Earth after they earlier had been the main engine propelling Wall Street higher. Other stocks that used to struggle with uncertainty about the U.S. economy’s strength and what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates, meanwhile, have been doing better.

The stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has much less of an emphasis on tech, are still up 1.2% for the week so far. That's much better than the Nasdaq composite's drop of 1.3%.

Even with Friday's rise in yields, investors are feeling more optimistic about interest rates. The Fed earlier this week cut its main interest rate for the third time this year and indicated another cut may be ahead in 2026. Wall Street loves lower rates because they can boost the economy and send prices for investments higher, even if they potentially make inflation worse.

The Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, did hint on Wednesday that interest rates may be on hold for a while. But he helped soothe nerves when his comments appeared less harsh than some investors expected in shutting off the possibility of more cuts in 2026.

Stocks of travel-related companies were relatively strong on Friday, and 45% of the stocks within the S&P 500 rose. Oil prices have eased this week, which should help trim their bills, and hopes are rising that easier interest rates will support the economy and encourage more people to take trips.

Southwest Airlines climbed 2.6%, while Norwegian Cruise Line rose 1.8%.

The biggest gain in the S&P 500 came from Lululemon Athletica, which jumped 9.7% after reporting better profit and revenue for the three months through Nov. 2 than analysts expected. It also said its CEO, Calvin McDonald, plans to step down at the end of January following pressure to boost revenue.

In stock markets abroad, indexes fell in Europe following a stronger finish in Asia.

Stocks jumped 1.7% in Hong Kong and rose 1.4% in Tokyo for two of the world’s bigger gains....

barchart.com

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[Ms. Baby Boomer] DOW JONES Newswires ... Crypos are Crashing .... M (Source: Merrill Lynch)

Ms. Baby Boomer — 12/9/2025 10:10:11 AM

[Ms. Baby Boomer] Morning Bid: Bumpier December ... [graphic] Dec 2 - What matters in U.S. ...

Ms. Baby Boomer — 12/2/2025 10:33:18 AM

Morning Bid: Bumpier December ...

Dec 2 - What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

Last month showed that 'buy the dip' stock market behavior is alive and well, but Wall Street has yet to regain early November peaks and tariff angst is proving hard to shake.

The final month of the year is off to a bumpy start. U.S. manufacturers registered an ongoing contraction of activity as input price growth turned higher again from already elevated levels, with tariffs widely blamed ....

reuters.com

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[J.B.C.] [X] The Nasdaq has done very well since the launch of ChatGPT, but look at how ...

J.B.C. — 12/2/2025 9:09:45 AM

[X]

The Nasdaq has done very well since the launch of ChatGPT, but look at how long it has been since the rolling three-year return was negative! pic.twitter.com/5nNAQxDUaG
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) December 2, 2025

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[Ms. Baby Boomer] Stocks Fall as Rising Bond Yields Spark Risk-Off Sentiment ... [graphic]...

Ms. Baby Boomer — 12/1/2025 12:18:01 PM

Stocks Fall as Rising Bond Yields Spark Risk-Off Sentiment ...

The S&P 500 Index ( $SPX) ( SPY) today is down by -0.28%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ( $DOWI) ( DIA) is down by -0.48%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ( $IUXX) ( QQQ) is down by -0.29%. December E-mini S&P futures ( ESZ25) are down -0.35%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures ( NQZ25) are down -0.44%.

Stock indexes are moving lower today as higher bond yields spark risk-off sentiment in asset markets. The 10-year T-note yield is up +7 bp to 4.08% on negative carryover from a surge in 10-year Japanese bond yields to a 17-year high after Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Ueda offered his clearest signal yet that the BOJ could raise interest rates again at this month’s BOJ meeting. Bitcoin is down by more than 7% today, at a 1-week low, further weighing on market sentiment. Strength in energy producers today is a positive factor for stocks, with WTI crude up more than 1% at a 1-week high.

Today’s US economic news was bearish for stocks after the Nov ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell -0.5 to a 14-month low of 48.2, weaker than expectations of an increase to 49.0. Also, the Nov ISM price paid sub-index unexpectedly rose +0.5 to 58.5, stronger than expectations of a decline to 57.5 and a sign of lingering price pressures.

Weaker-than-expected Chinese economic news was bearish for global growth prospects. The China Nov manufacturing PMI rose +0.2 to 49.2, weaker than expectations of 49.4. Also, the Nov non-manufacturing PMI fell -0.6 to 49.5, weaker than expectations of 50.0 and the weakest report in almost three years.

The price of Bitcoin ( ^BTCUSD) is down more than -7% today at a 1-week low after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said Saturday that “risks of speculation and hype surrounding virtual currencies have resurfaced” and that virtual currencies do not have the same legal status as fiat currencies, lack legal tender status, and should not be used as currency in the market. Bitcoin also came under pressure on comments from the CEO of Strategy, who said that his firm could sell Bitcoin if its mNaV, the ratio of enterprise value to the value of Bitcoin holdings, goes below 1x.....

barchart.com

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[J.B.C.] [X] ChatGPT came out three years ago today. If you look at the Nasdaq performa...

J.B.C. — 11/30/2025 1:16:33 PM

[X]

ChatGPT came out three years ago today.

If you look at the Nasdaq performance from that day and overlay it with what the Nasdaq did after the Netscape IPO in 1995, the two are quite similar so far.

If this path continues to track, there could be explosive gains yet to come. pic.twitter.com/ioRhbWE2IM
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 30, 2025

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[J.B.C.] [X] S&P 500 A/D line is a good day or two away from another new all-time high. ...

J.B.C. — 11/28/2025 9:06:05 AM

[X]

S&P 500 A/D line is a good day or two away from another new all-time high. Breadth leads price and this is another reason we are still in a major secular bull market that probably has much further to go than most expect.

As I've been saying, they say Hindenburg, just buy more. pic.twitter.com/OsbVuxI44H
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 28, 2025

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[J.B.C.] [X] The Monday win streak ended with a thud. pic.twitter.com/AQuIPMLK7c— Ryan D...

J.B.C. — 11/17/2025 4:13:00 PM

[X]

The Monday win streak ended with a thud. pic.twitter.com/AQuIPMLK7c
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 17, 2025

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[J.B.C.] Here ya go, I’ll have a follow-up post for you later: *** How the 1929 Chart C...

J.B.C. — 11/16/2025 9:42:00 AM

Here ya go, I’ll have a follow-up post for you later:

***

How the 1929 Chart Compares – Inside People/Outside People
November 14, 2025 by George Ure

TL;DR: Just look at the charts and you can see the risk. Beyond the “news noise” we look at “inside people” versus “outside people” and how to manage between.

BREAKING: Tucker Carlson on the Thomas Crooks case is here. Nothing to see here, huh? More lying to congress…you gotta play it. Obstruction seems alive and well.

Two Charts to StudyChart #1: This is our current Aggregate Index view as of early pre-opening prices today. It is an equal-dollar chart (DJI, S&P, IXIC) that I created in the wake of the 2000 market high. It was designed to unmask total market performance when shills of that era minimized the $5-$7 trillion lost when the Internet Bubble blew up.

As you can see, the Aggregate is in danger of “falling out of bed” and the downside potential is HUGE. For perspective, here’s a look back at when optimism last ran off the rails.

Chart #2: Shows just how huge the risk now may be. Here’s how this market looks compared with 1929.

As you can see, America’s markets kept on rising from the Guilded Age until it all blew over in 1929. We can’t say whether that is the case now, because we don’t offer financial advice. If you can’t take a hint from us rolling totally debt-free, well prepped (and armed) in the woods far from anywhere, you need to spend more time in financial meditation classes!

There are usually 25-40 pages are charts and discussion in the Peoplenomicsweekly assessment – which is still available for the same $40/year it has been since 2000.

[Ms. Baby Boomer] You would have to go back on this SubjectBoard where Fintas and I were making Ch...

Ms. Baby Boomer — 11/13/2025 12:49:33 PM

You would have to go back on this SubjectBoard where Fintas and I were making Chart comparisons to the 1929 CRASH ...

Stocks Weighed Down by Weakness in Chipmakers and
Megacap Tech Stocks ...

The S&P 500 Index ( $SPX) ( SPY) today is down -1.10%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ( $DOWI) ( DIA) is down -0.68%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ( $IUXX) ( QQQ) is down -1.55%. December E-mini S&P futures ( ESZ25) are down -1.05%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures ( NQZ25) are down -1.50%.

US stock indexes are moving lower today as most of the optimism over the reopening of the US government has already been priced in. The weakness in chipmakers today and a slide in the Magnificent Seven technology stocks are a drag on the overall market....

barchart.com

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[Ditchdigger] Perhaps a repeat December swoon is in the cards

Ditchdigger — 11/10/2025 8:22:53 AM

[J.B.C.] [graphic]

J.B.C. — 11/10/2025 8:12:35 AM

[toccodolce] Hi J.B.C., Could you please update the BPALL pnf chart? TIA, Tocco

toccodolce — 11/9/2025 7:56:31 PM

[J.B.C.] Buy, BUy, BUY! [X] It is 1929 still at least. Whenever they say this, stocks g...

J.B.C. — 11/9/2025 4:44:01 PM

Buy, BUy, BUY!

[X]

It is 1929 still at least. Whenever they say this, stocks go higher.

Thanks @AMeshkati for pointing this one out. pic.twitter.com/5rmH7UsEyO
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 9, 2025

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[J.B.C.] As a follow-up the SPX500 did not close below the 50 day moving average yet. A...

J.B.C. — 11/8/2025 8:26:43 AM

As a follow-up the SPX500 did not close below the 50 day moving average yet. AND, the chart remained intact:

[J.B.C.] I’ve been in no man’s land for the past week or so with my indicators, I did see...

J.B.C. — 11/8/2025 8:24:21 AM

I’ve been in no man’s land for the past week or so with my indicators, I did see this this morning:

[X]

The S&P 500 could close beneath the 50-day MA any day now, which would end one of the longest streaks ever.

Good news is other streaks that lasted at least four months tended to see continued strength, even after the streak eventually ended. pic.twitter.com/E5pHQpDsQX
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 7, 2025

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[J.B.C.] [X] Called Monopoly‼️ Really illegal in larger businesses. pic.twitter.com/b4Do...

J.B.C. — 11/4/2025 10:28:23 AM

[X]

Called Monopoly‼️
Really illegal in larger businesses. pic.twitter.com/b4Do554tjF
— Mas Bond (@masebond_) November 1, 2025

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[Ms. Baby Boomer] S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as Meta's spending plans spook investors ... ... De...

Ms. Baby Boomer — 10/30/2025 11:35:28 AM

S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as Meta's
spending plans spook investors ...

...

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, with 82 new highs and 113 new lows.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.34-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq, with 1,824 stocks rising and 2,445 down.

The S&P 500 posted 29 new 52-week highs and 28 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 59 new highs and 126 new lows....

reuters.com

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[J.B.C.] Yesterday NDW had a report on years following a year with multiple new highs. G...

J.B.C. — 10/29/2025 10:28:10 AM

Yesterday NDW had a report on years following a year with multiple new highs. Generally the following year was generally ho-hum. EXCEPT 2024 had 61 new record highs, 2025 is already at 43.

Time will tell what 2026 will be??????

[Ms. Baby Boomer] Stocks Rally to Record Highs on Favorable US CPI Report .... barchart.com ...

Ms. Baby Boomer — 10/25/2025 10:53:33 AM

Stocks Rally to Record Highs on Favorable US CPI Report ....

barchart.com

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[J.B.C.] This is a video well worth the time for every investor to watch. [youtube video...

J.B.C. — 10/23/2025 2:52:51 PM

This is a video well worth the time for every investor to watch.

[Ms. Baby Boomer] I bought a Turquoise Ring, but it is mostly Silver .... M

Ms. Baby Boomer — 10/13/2025 11:48:53 AM

[J.B.C.] [graphic]

J.B.C. — 10/12/2025 6:41:04 PM

[J.B.C.] [X] At the peak, this current bull market was up 89%. This isn't even half the...

J.B.C. — 10/12/2025 9:18:19 AM

[X]

At the peak, this current bull market was up 89%.

This isn't even half the average 191% of the prior 11 bull markets. pic.twitter.com/aoobXX8L4U
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 12, 2025

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[J.B.C.] Not P&F but I sometimes pay attention to other signals. The Bill O’Neil Cup and...

J.B.C. — 10/10/2025 8:49:38 AM

Not P&F but I sometimes pay attention to other signals. The Bill O’Neil Cup and Handle formation is where I 1st started gaining market insight. And no secret here I DO currently hold PLTR:

[X]

$PLTR 195min. This putative cup and handle finally gonna go? Have a spec long, will only add if it goes. pic.twitter.com/WD4mcMU4ys
— Shack 🇨🇦🏒⚾️ (@Shack_SI) October 9, 2025

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[J.B.C.] Gold has been getting all the headlines but in the short run Silver has been out...

J.B.C. — 10/9/2025 9:53:27 AM

Gold has been getting all the headlines but in the short run Silver has been outperforming.

This is the Relative Strength comparison between SLV and GLD on a 3.25% scale:

[J.B.C.] Disclaimer: I Own SLV. [X] Dear silver shorts, we suggest you panic https://t....

J.B.C. — 10/9/2025 9:48:43 AM

Disclaimer: I Own SLV.

[X]

Dear silver shorts, we suggest you panic https://t.co/v14R2w4Sl9 pic.twitter.com/LnsXdawG2V
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 9, 2025

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[J.B.C.] I had sound gaps the first few minutes of this video but then that problem went ...

J.B.C. — 10/4/2025 9:19:36 AM

I had sound gaps the first few minutes of this video but then that problem went away.

[J.B.C.] Short and sweet: [X] When the S&P 500 makes a new high in October the fourth q...

J.B.C. — 10/4/2025 8:22:30 AM

Short and sweet:

[X]

When the S&P 500 makes a new high in October the fourth quarter is up more than 90% of the time. pic.twitter.com/fHizFPMnOY
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 2, 2025

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[J.B.C.] [graphic] [graphic] Futures Hit Another All Time High As Government Shutdown ...

J.B.C. — 10/3/2025 8:44:52 AM

Futures Hit Another All Time High As Government Shutdown Enters Day 3

BY TYLER DURDEN

FRIDAY, OCT 03, 2025 - 06:35 AM

US equity futures are heading into Day 3 of the US government shutdown on pace for what is now another daily all time high. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1% as of 8:15 am in New York, on course for the longest winning streak since July. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all higher led by TSLA (+1.6%), NVDA (+0.6%) and AMZN (+0.6%). European stocks enjoyed similar as the tech-fueled rally continues. Nikkei rose almost 2% after Japan’s Hitachi teamed up with OpenAI and Fujitsu, expanding its collaboration with Nvidia. Today's job report will become the latest casualty of the Democrats' government shutdown, and that’s actually helping to keep volatility subdued, according to ING strategists. Bond yields are mostly unchanged; USD is lower. Energy and precious metals are both higher. Gold was on track for a seventh weekly gain, fueled by central bank buying amid falling US interest rates and lingering inflation concerns. There’s also a view that the underlying labor market likely isn’t as weak as the ADP print estimated this week. There have not been much incremental updates overnight as investors are still waiting for updates from the White House. The only major data release we will receive will be ISM Services which is expected to print at 51.7 vs. 52.0 prior.

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In premarket trading Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Tesla +1.2%, Meta +0.5%, Nvidia +0.4%, Amazon +0.4%, Alphabet +0.2%, Microsoft +0.1%, Apple +0.1%).

Applied Materials (AMAT) is down 2.6% after the semiconductor-equipment maker said net revenue for FY 2026 is set to decrease by $600 million due to a new rule by the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) rises 1.3% after UBS upgraded the metals company to buy from neutral.
Maplebear (CART), doing business as Instacart, falls 1% after Piper Sandler analyst Tom Champion cut his recommendation on the delivery-services provider to neutral from overweight, citing intensifying competitive pressures.
Tronox Holdings (TROX) is down 2.7% as JPMorgan downgrades to neutral from overweight, saying conditions in the titanium-dioxide industry have become more difficult near term.
Baidu Inc. US shares (BIDU) are up 1.2% after Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the China-based search engine to $140 from $100.
USA Rare Earth (USAR) shares rise 9.6% after CNBC reported that the company is in close communication with the Trump administration, when asked whether it would be open to a deal with the US government.

In corporate news, Boeing’s 777X is said to fly commercially for the first time in early 2027 instead of next year, a fresh setback to the US planemaker. A large blaze has broken out after an explosion at a Chevron refinery in Los Angeles County, according to CBS News. Tesla was sued over claims that defects in the doors of a crashed Cybertruck made it a “death trap.”

Investors are wagering that the billions pouring into the AI sector will translate into profits and extend gains in tech shares. So far none of that has happened. Meanwhile, the rally underscores how bullish momentum is overshadowing concerns about a US government shutdown, now in its third day and prompting a blackout in key economic data. In fact, it’s been 114 trading sessions since the S&P 500 had a 5% pullback, as US stocks take investors on a one-way ride up. Not surprisingly, Bloomberg Intelligence found that bears are becoming a vanishing breed, as bullish call option volumes posts new records and shorting has become increasingly dangerous in the meme-stock era. Global equity ETFs saw $152 billion of inflows in the past three weeks, the most on record, according to BofA strategists citing EPFR Global data.

“Financial market volatility is falling across the board, partly driven by the US government shutdown and the delay to key data releases such as the September jobs data,” wrote ING strategists Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole. “Instead, investors remain transfixed by the AI-driven rally in megacap tech shares, which shows no signs of slowing.”

One way to play the AI mania is to barbell valuation extremes using cheap cyclical assets against rich tech, according to BofA's Michael Hartnett. Fueling the excitement this week: Global Infrastructure Partners is in advanced talks to acquire Aligned Data Centers, while OpenAI continues to announce new partnerships. VC’s have poured $192.7 billion into AI startups so far this year, setting new global records according to PitchBook data.

The continued optimism around AI is stoking questions over how far the rally can run. Concerns are growing that valuations look overheated as spending has yet to translate into earnings.

“The market may well start asking questions whether current valuation levels are justified,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin. “Further upside is set to be much more gradual, with risks of a setback fairly elevated.”

Even as investors remain transfixed by AI and the hype that surrounds it, they’re keeping one eye on the relentless rally in gold. Central banks around the world are accumulating the metal, while a gauge of gold mining stocks has significantly outperformed chip makers this year.

European stocks are on track for their strongest week since May, gaining for a sixth day in a row, driven by investor optimism over artificial intelligence developments. In individual stocks, Barry Callebaut shares jump after Bloomberg News revealed the Swiss company’s main shareholder previously explored taking the chocolate maker private. Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% to 569.9 with 461 members up, 128 down, and 11 unchanged. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

Barry Callebaut shares rise as much as 8.2%, climbing to their highest level since March, after Bloomberg News reported that the Swiss company’s main shareholder previously explored taking the chocolate maker private
Galapagos rises as much as 7.7%, hitting their highest level since 2024, after a report by newspaper De Tijd that former CEO Paul Stoffels has formed a consortium to table a bid for the biotech company’s cell therapy business
Raiffeisen gains as much as 8.9% after the FT reported the EU is preparing to lift sanctions on assets linked to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska to compensate Raiffeisen Bank International for damages it had to pay in Russia
Diploma gains as much as 4.1% after the building components supplier received a double-upgrade from RBC Capital Markets, with analysts describing the firm as “one of the safest growth names in the wider sector”
Kongsberg gains as much as 2.1% after being upgraded to hold from sell at Pareto Securities, with the broker noting the Norwegian company has underperformed its European defense-sector peers, but has recently re-rated
Intertek Group rises as much as 1.2% as BofA Securities describes the testing group as “best in class” and reinstates coverage with a buy rating and 5,990p price target
Zinzino gains as much as 7.4%, the most since July, after the Swedish nutritional health firm reported preliminary 3Q sales figures, posting a 48% increase in 3Q sales to SEK786.7 million from the year ago period
J D Wetherspoon shares tumble as much as 6.2% after the UK pub chain reported annual results. Earnings came in ahead of expectations, although analysts at Jefferies said investors are remaining cautious
Shares of European chip equipment makers edge lower on Friday after Applied Materials warned that a US export restriction published earlier this week will reduce its revenues

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose to head for a fifth consecutive session of gains, driven by technology shares on continued optimism over artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.7%, taking its weekly advance to 2.7%. Japan was among the region’s top gainers ahead of the ruling party’s leadership election this weekend, while stocks slumped in Hong Kong. Markets were shut for holidays in mainland China and South Korea.
Heightened risk appetite fueled regional market gains Friday, with TSMC and Hitachi among the top contributors to the benchmark’s advance. Hitachi jumped 10% on a new strategic partnership with OpenAI while Fujitsu Ltd. expanded its collaboration with Nvidia. The day’s rally highlighted how global investors are largely brushing aside concerns about a potential bubble in tech shares. Meanwhile, Global Infrastructure Partners was in advanced talks to acquire Aligned Data Centers, a major beneficiary of the AI spending boom, in a deal that could value the company at about $40 billion. Hong Kong’s stock benchmarks slipped, taking a breather after recent gains. Most tech and EV shares were down, while Alibaba extended its rally.

In FX, dollar weakens against most of the G-10. The yen lags after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda avoided any clear hints on the rate path.

In rates, treasury yields are within a basis point of Thursday’s closing levels as US session gets under way, with government shutdown in its third day to postpone the release of September employment report. Yields kept to narrow ranges overnight, leaving 10-year near 4.08%; Gilts outperforming in Europe, with yields edging lower: UK 10-year is ~2bp richer vs US after weaker-than-expected UK services PMI. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far and expected to remain light; weekly total stands at $13.7 billion vs dealers’ projection of $25 billion. Services gauges from S&P Global and ISM are unaffected, however, and several Fed officials are slated to speak.

In commodities, oil prices bounced, though still set for a hefty weekly loss, Brent trading just below $65/barrel. Oil headed for its biggest weekly decline since late June, ahead of an OPEC+ meeting that’s expected to result in the return of more idled barrels. Gold slightly higher, up about $5 for the session and off records hit earlier in the week. Gold was on track for a seventh weekly gain, fueled by central bank buying amid falling US interest rates and lingering inflation concerns. And despite all the hype around AI and the surge in chip stocks this year, gold miners have actually been the better bet. An MSCI Inc. gauge of global gold equities has soared about 135% in 2025. It’s on course for its biggest-ever outperformance against the index compiler’s measure of major semiconductor firms, which is up 40%.

Looking at today's US economic calendar we get the September final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and September ISM services (10am); September jobs report would normally land at 8:30am but it is being delayed. Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (8:30am), Miran (9:35am, 3:30pm), Logan (1:30pm) and Jefferson (1:40pm)

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini +0.3%
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
DAX +0.1%
CAC 40 +0.3%
10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.09%
VIX -0.4 points at 16.27
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1201.41
euro +0.2% at $1.1733
WTI crude +1% at $61.09/barrel

Top Overnight News

US President Trump said there could be firings and project cuts if the shutdown continues, according to an interview.
Google (GOOGL) will locate a new data centre in West Memphis, Arkansas, with a multi-billion USD investment, according to Reuters.
Government report flags security risks from China’s DeepSeek models, though they remain behind American counterparts, via Axios.
US administration to enlist powerful businesses and labor groups to push Democrats to end shutdown, reports via Axios.
Fed's Williams (voter) does not comment on the outlook for monetary policy. Says, robust policy works to anchor inflation expectations

Government Shutdown

Trade/Tariffs

US President Trump said he is considering taxpayer rebates of USD 1,000–2,000 funded by tariff revenue, according to Reuters.
China launches trade barrier probe into Mexico tariffs; vows necessary measures to defend companies' rights.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly firmer, taking their cue from Wall Street’s gains amid light newsflow, whilst the looming delay of the US jobs report due to the government shutdown keeps focus on Fed speak and upcoming ISM data. Mainland Chinese and South Korean markets remained closed for holidays. ASX 200 was supported by strength in technology and healthcare names, though gold miners lagged as the yellow metal pulled back. Nikkei 225 outperformed, driven by weakness in the yen and strength in technology, while remarks from BoJ Governor Ueda following this week’s Tankan Survey underlined the need to maintain an accommodative monetary environment, with focus also on the upcoming LDP elections. Hang Seng declined, bucking the regional trend as it failed to benefit from gains in technology, with Stock Connect closed and Mainland participants absent during Golden Week.

Top Asian News

BoJ Governor Ueda said the Bank will continue raising interest rates if the economy and prices move in line with its forecast, while stressing the need to maintain an accommodative monetary environment to support the economy. He said the likelihood of the baseline forecast materialising will be scrutinised alongside upside and downside risks, with close monitoring of the global outlook, including the US economy, the impact of tariffs on corporate profits, wage and price-setting behaviour, and overall price developments. Ueda noted signs that consumers are cutting back on spending amid rising food prices, which the BoJ is watching carefully. He said corporate profits are likely to stay elevated, though some manufacturers are being hit by tariffs, as seen in exports and output data. He reiterated the BoJ wants to support business activities by keeping policy loose, but warned that tariff policy creates global uncertainty and a 15% tariff rate would weigh on the economy. He added that economic growth is likely to moderate before rising again as overseas economies return to a moderate growth path, and emphasised that judgements will be made without preconceptions on whether the economy and prices are moving in line with the forecast. He repeated that interest rates will continue to be raised if conditions follow the outlook, while noting that the impact of US tariffs has not spread to Japan’s entire economy so far, according to Reuters.
Japan Finance Minister Kato said tariffs cannot be boosted on countries importing Russian oil from the perspective of compliance with international laws. He added that Japan is watching with high interest the impact of the US government shutdown on markets and the economy.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened slightly firmer and have traded sideways throughout the morning. No real moves to EZ Final PMI revisions. European sectors have opened slightly firmer with Banks (+1.0%), Basic Resources (+0.8%) and Retail (+0.6%) leading the way. The former benefits from upside in Raiffeisen Bank (+6.2%) after the FT reported that the EU is to lift sanctions on Deripaska to compensate the bank. Towards the bottom of the pile; Technology has been the worst performing sector, with losses broadbased; ASML (-0.8%) and BE Semiconductor (-2.4%) both on the backfoot. This pressure can be attributed to commentary via Applied Materials (-3.8% pre-market) which stated that the US BIS Affiliates Rule will cut Q4 revenue by about USD 110mln and reduce FY26 revenue by about USD 600mln.

Top European News

ECB President Lagarde says Klass Knot would make a good ECB President, via ANP. Says Europe needs to level up regulation of non Banks involved in Bank-like activities.
UK OBR reportedly wants to end the ongoing status of assuming that the 5p cut to fuel duty will be reversed in the spring and then increase with inflation thereafter, via The Sun citing sources.
French Prime Minister Lecornu announces he will renounce the use of 49.3 to pass the French Budget.

USD is flat today and currently trades within a very narrow 97.75 to 97.94 range; most recently, some modest pressure has been seen in the Dollar, but without a clear driver. Nothing really too pertinent for the Dollar by way of newsflow; some focus has been on President Trump, where he stated that he is considering taxpayer rebates of USD 1,000–2,000 funded by tariff revenue, according to Reuters. Elsewhere, the WSJ reported that Trump is looking to send billions in cash bailouts to farmers with taxpayer money. With the jobs report now shelved, focus will now be on US PMIs and ISM Services. The former is generally overshadowed by the ISM report; on that, the consensus expects the headline to fall slightly to 51.8 from 52.0 in September; the business activity gauge is seen falling to 51.8 from 55.0. Additionally, a handful of Fed officials are scheduled today.
EUR is on a slightly firmer footing today, but without a clear driver. The bulk of the marginal upside was seen around the European cash open and continued to trend higher on the releases of European PMIs. To recap those PMIs, Spain Services and Italian Services both beat expectations whilst the French, German, and then the EZ-wide metrics were revised a touch lower. The EZ release highlighted that the data will likely “confirm the stance” for those ECB members who opt for no more cuts. Sticking with the ECB, some very marginal upside was seen in the single-currency after ECB President Lagarde said former ECB member Knot would make a “good” President at the Bank, via ANP; for reference, Knot was a hawkish member during his tenure. Now focus will turn to ECB’s Schnabel later in the day, who is also speaking at a Knot farewell symposium.
JPY is the worst-performing G10 currency, albeit very marginally so. Focus overnight has been on BoJ Governor Ueda, who stressed the importance of maintaining an accommodative monetary environment to support the economy – these comments sparked some modest pressure in the Yen. As it stands, markets currently assign a 64% chance of a hold at the October meeting. Ueda aside, focus will be on the weekend’s LDP election. In brief, polls currently suggest Takaichi as the favourite, followed closely by Koizumi; ING suggests that the former would be seen as more bearish for the JPY.
GBP is incrementally higher today and trades in a 1.3430 to 1.3467 range, and towards the midpoint of the prior day’s range. Today’s focus has been on the region’s Final PMI metrics, where the Services component was subject to a decent downward revision to 50.8 (prev. 51.9); as such, the Composite moved lower to 50.1. The accompanying release highlighted that corporate clients are deferring spending decisions until after the Autumn budget.
Antipodeans are both slightly firmer vs the Dollar, and with some very modest outperformance in the Kiwi. Nothing really driving the upside today, but perhaps buoyed by the continued upside in base metals prices.

Fixed Income

A slightly softer start for USTs to a much more limited session than initially scheduled due to the US government shutdown. much more limited session than initially scheduled due to the US government shutdown. Into the ISM Services print, the odds of a Fed move in October have just retreated beneath being fully priced with a c. 97% implied probability at the time of writing, vs the over 100% we saw following the surprising negative ADP print earlier in the week.
EGBs are contained this morning, limited reaction in OATs to the concession from French PM Lecornu that he will not be utilising Article 49.3 to pass fiscal reform.
Bunds contained in a very thin range of c. 10 ticks, updates in the space light, no reaction to remarks from Lagarde or final PMIs.
Gilts trade a little better than peers, but are essentially unchanged on the session. Awaiting any update/leak around the OBR’s first forecast round being presented to Chancellor Reeves, forecasts are expected to be very bleak from Reeves' perspective. Furthermore, The Sun reports that the OBR wants to end the fuel duty assumption in the forecast, an update that would add further pressure to Reeves.

Commodities

Crude benchmarks rebound after WTI and Brent extended below key levels of USD 61/bbl and USD 64.20/bbl respectively in Thursday’s session. Initially, oscillating between USD 60.90-61.27/bbl and USD 64.50-64.85/bbl after picking up modestly during the APAC session. In geopolitics, a senior Hamas official said that they will need more time and are demanding substantial changes to the Trump plan. Crude benchmarks extended modestly on this to session highs of USD 61.38/bbl and USD 65.02/bbl respectively. As a reminder, Trump gave Hamas just three days to consider and accept the US-backed plan for Gaza. This upside was ultimately short-lived and has entirely pared.
Spot gold has thus far been relatively muted, after selling off from a strengthening dollar yesterday. XAU is currently oscillating within a c. USD 30/oz bound as economic newsflow remains light due to the US government shutdown.
Base metals continue to extend on gains and are on track for the biggest weekly gain since April as supply disruptions, a weaker dollar, and optimism about demand support gains. 3M LME Copper oscillated around USD 10.5k/t before extending to a high of USD 10.85k/t.

Geopolitics: Middle East

"A senior Hamas official told the Saudi media: "We have informed the mediators that we need more time for consultations regarding the Trump plan. Hamas Demands Some "Fundamental Changes" in Some of the Plan's Clauses", via Kan News.

Geopolitics: NATO

Germany’s Munich Airport has been closed after drones were spotted over the airport, a federal police spokesperson told BILD.
Munich Airport later reopened after being closed overnight amid drone sightings, according to witnesses

Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine

Russian President Putin also said the possible seizure of vessels would increase the risks of confrontations at sea, and warned that any US supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would not change the battlefield but would be dangerous, damage relations, and escalate the conflict, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This week continues to see Europe and Asia outperforming the US, as fears about a prolonged government shutdown and some hawkish-leaning data meant sentiment in the US lagged again yesterday. However, a late rally led by Tech meant that the S&P 500 (+0.06%) just reached another record high, while the US 10yr Treasury (-1.5bps) fell back to 4.08%. But in Europe there was a more positive story again, with the STOXX 600 (+0.53%) up to a new record.
In terms of the US shutdown, yesterday brought no sign of an end to the impasse, with investors becoming increasingly concerned that it could drag on into next week. For instance, the Polymarket odds of the shutdown lasting beyond October 15 is currently at 45%, having stood at 34% as we went to press yesterday. So that added to concern about the shutdown having a larger economic impact, particularly given markets are lacking a lot of key data right now. Indeed, we’d normally be previewing the US payrolls number this morning, but the shutdown has seen that postponed, along with the usual weekly jobless claims yesterday.

In terms of progress on negotiations, Treasury Secretary Bessent called for a “clean continuing resolution” on federal spending in a CNBC interview, and warned that the shutdown could lead to a hit to US GDP and growth prospects. Those comments came as Trump posted on Truth Social that he would be meeting with his budget chief to determine which Democratic agencies he would decide to cut federal spending on, and whether these cuts would be temporary or permanent, potentially threatening "thousands" of jobs.

US Treasuries had spent the early part of the US day higher in yield, particularly at the front-end. One cause of that was an unusual release markets don’t normally pay much attention to, which was a payrolls estimate from Revelio Labs. That suggested nonfarm payrolls were up around +60k in September, which contrasted with the contractionary print (-32k) in the ADP’s report of private payrolls on Wednesday. That was also backed up by the Challenger job cut numbers, which found that job cuts in September were down -25.8% year-on-year. So that boosted optimism on the near-term US outlook, and meant investors pared back their expectations for rate cuts, now pricing in 91bps by the June meeting, down -1.0bps on the day. The 2yr yield spiked around 3bps on the data but ultimately settled barely higher (+0.4bps) at 3.539%, whilst the 10yr yield (-1.5bps) closed at 4.08%. Yields are back up just over a basis point overnight in Asia.

Back to the Fed, and we also heard a bit from Bessent on the Fed chair interviews, which he said were currently underway, and that he expected “3-to-5” candidates would be put forward for Trump’s consideration. Current Fed speakers continued to display a fairly balanced view. While the market wrestles with how to handicap the health of the US labour market without BLS data, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee said officials can turn to other sources. He noted that his staff had produced labor market data that “indicates some steadiness in the labor market and I think the underlying economy is still growing pretty solidly". Earlier in the day Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Logan said that she “has a little bit slower of a normalization of the policy path in order to make sure we get all the way to 2%.” She added that she felt labour market risks are “fairly balanced” and that “It doesn’t appear to be that policy is more than modestly restrictive.”

The S&P 500 (+0.06%) was able to shrug off shutdown jitters to creep to yet another record high. Things had looked even more promising at the open, before faltering following the employment data. Indeed, the S&P was pulled higher as the NASDAQ (+0.39%) managed to reach a new record, even as the Mag-7 underperformed that (+0.08%). Chipmaker stocks outperformed, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor index up +1.94% after yesterday’s overnight news that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have partnered with OpenAI as part of its Stargate AI push into data cloud centres.

In Europe, the mood was positive, and the STOXX 600 was up +0.53% to another record. We also saw multiple indices like the CAC 40 (+1.13%) and DAX (1.28%) jump over one per cent, although the UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.20%) lagged behind. That advance for the DAX comes as the multi-year German stimulus package is starting to come into effect, which is something I looked at in my chart of the day yesterday (link here). Meanwhile for bonds, yields on 10yr bunds (-1.3bps), OATs (-1.1bps) and BTPs (-0.6bps) all moved lower. 10yr Gilts (+1.4bps) underperformed as fiscal concerns persist and there was some intraday weakness after data from the Bank of England’s DMP survey which showed business inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.4%, albeit in-line with expectations.

In Asia, Japanese markets are leading the way, with the Nikkei soaring by +1.69%, nearing recent peaks, after a surprisingly dovish speech by BoJ Governor Ueda and ahead of a crucial ruling party vote that would determine the next Prime Minister of the country.

Ueda reaffirmed the bank's longstanding position on interest rates, thus avoiding signalling any policy changes for this month following recent market speculation about an imminent rate hike. Market pricing has dipped to 59% for an October hike down from 65%. The Yen has weakened around a third of a percent. Staying with Japan, the jobless rate increased to 2.6%, its highest level in over a year in August, from 2.3% the previous month, and against expectations of 2.4%. Additional data revealed that the job-to-applicant ratio decreased to 1.20 from 1.22, marking the lowest number of job openings since 2022.

In other markets, the S&P/ASX 200 is up by +0.37%, whereas the Hang Seng is down by -0.94%, impacted by losses in EV stocks following a decline in Tesla overnight. Trading volumes are subdued due to market holidays in China and South Korea, with Chinese markets remaining closed until the middle of next week. US equity futures are up a couple of tenths of a percent.

To the day ahead now, we’ll get UK September official reserves changes, France August industrial production, Italy September services PMI, August retail sales, Q2 deficit, and Eurozone August PPI. For central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Williams and Jefferson, ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Sleijpen, Villeroy and Schnabel, and BOE Governor Bailey.

[J.B.C.] Report link in the text. Very good info IMO. [X] https://t.co/8D0XI9PrGi— Nas...

J.B.C. — 10/2/2025 9:44:27 AM

Report link in the text. Very good info IMO.

[X]

https://t.co/8D0XI9PrGi
— Nasdaq Dorsey Wright (@DorseyWrightNDW) October 2, 2025

[/X]

[Ms. Baby Boomer] There is nothing funny about me .... M

Ms. Baby Boomer — 9/30/2025 4:51:19 PM

[J.B.C.] You’re funny.

J.B.C. — 9/30/2025 2:55:58 PM

[Ms. Baby Boomer] The Stock Market is just treading water ... The calm before the Storm .... M

Ms. Baby Boomer — 9/30/2025 2:00:45 PM

[Ms. Baby Boomer] Did go to BJ's... Troy Aikman is getting gray hair .... M

Ms. Baby Boomer — 9/29/2025 8:52:24 PM

[Ms. Baby Boomer] Plan on going to BJ's later ... Really do miss Fintas .... M

Ms. Baby Boomer — 9/29/2025 1:17:52 PM

[J.B.C.] Weekly video: [youtube video]

J.B.C. — 9/28/2025 8:52:12 AM

[Ms. Baby Boomer] BofA Global Research ... Weekly flows by client, sector, & size. By sector, Re...

Ms. Baby Boomer — 9/23/2025 5:35:05 PM

BofA Global Research ...

Weekly flows by client, sector, & size. By sector, Real Estate stocks saw the largest inflows while Tech stocks saw the largest outflows last week....

M