Silicon Investor - Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

[golfer72] Great site. Thanks

golfer72 — 10/7/2026 6:43:46 AM

[Elroy Jetson] [youtube video]

Elroy Jetson — 10/7/2026 6:14:53 AM

[elmatador] Europe energydoom. When you look at the entire ledger, Europe managed to simul...

elmatador — 10/7/2026 12:03:01 AM

Europe energydoom.

When you look at the entire ledger, Europe managed to simultaneously:

Junk its internal capability to turn crude oil into usable fuel (Refineries).
Decommissioned its cleanest source of independent, baseline electricity (Nuclear).
Ban its cheapest, albeit dirtiest, fallback fuel (Coal).
Server ies with its primary, low-cost pipeline provider (Russia)

The Africans can attract investment because EU cannot pivot.
Policies can be changed in a week. Bu refineries cannot be built a new.

The Nordstream2 was destroyed.
Russia is not going to come to the table on the cheap after they froze their $300 billions

[elmatador] European oil companies and policymakers explicitly projected that the "Green Dea...

elmatador — 10/6/2026 11:43:29 PM

European oil companies and policymakers explicitly projected that the "Green Deal" and the electrification of cars would rapidly crush the domestic demand for passenger-car diesel and gasoline

Nigeria's Dangote Refinery has stepped directly into that void and is making an absolute fortune from Europe’s miscalculations.

After booking a net loss of $476 million in 2025, the refinery generated a staggering $1.82 billion net profit in the first half of 2026 alone, bringing in over $13 billion in revenue

During the second quarter of 2026, Dangote exported roughly 80,000 barrels of jet fuel per day to Europe. This covered 13% of Europe's entire supply shortfall, making Nigeria the continent's largest supplier of jet fuel behind only the United States

Dangote Refinery Advantage Located on Nigeria's Atlantic coast, it takes only 7 to 10 days to ship fuel to Europe's main hub (ARA), compared to 15 to 25 days from the Middle East. This saves up to $5 per barrel in freight costs.

Dangote's refinery boasts a high Nelson Complexity Index of 11.5, allowing it to process cheaper, heavier crudes that simpler refineries cannot handle, keeping profit margins high.

As Nigeria's Dangote refinery nears record IPO, investors focus on oil supply costs

By Isaac Anyaogu
August 26, 20269:01 AM GMT+3Updated August 26, 2026

Summary
Companies

Plant plans to double capacity within three years
Nigeria is Africa's biggest crude producer
But Dangote needs to pay up for supplies from elsewhere

LAGOS, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Nigeria's Dangote Refinery, the largest on the continent, is ?expected in October to seek to raise around $5 billion in Africa's biggest IPO listing yet, after months of strong earnings, ?boosted by the disruption caused by the Iran war.

For potential investors, the question is whether Dangote, majority-owned by Africa's richest man, Aliko Dangote, can avoid squeezing its profits while sourcing enough crude oil for its plans to double capacity within three years, in part funded by the initial public offering.

"If Dangote’s only supplier of oil ?is Nigeria ... this does increase the risk of the refinery as an investment," Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at U.S.-based Tortoise ?Capital Management, said.

Dangote does not disclose its margins, but as a whole the refining industry has benefited from higher profits ?since the disruption in the Middle East increased demand for alternative sources of fuel.

Dangote was particularly well-placed to meet demand across Africa and ?beyond. A new, efficient refinery, it reached its initial maximum capacity of 650,000 barrels per day in February, just before U.S.-Israeli attacks launched the ?war on Iran.

THE COMPLICATIONS OF BUYING NIGERIAN CRUDE
Ideally, Dangote would rely on domestic oil, especially when Nigeria, with output of 1.6 million bpd, is Africa's biggest producer.

The reality is that much of Nigeria's state oil firm ?the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited's joint-venture crude is tied to oil-backed loans and pre-export deals, reducing the amount it has available for Dangote.

The ?NNPC does not disclose its obligations, but David Bird, chief executive of the Dangote refinery, told Reuters imports account for about 30% to 40% of crude ?intake.

The problem ?is one of economics as well as of availability.
"Challenges in accessing feedstock at competitive prices would increase costs and compress margins and utilisation rates, impacting the refinery's commercial performance and therefore its valuation," said Mikolaj Judson, analyst at risk consultancy Control Risks.

The crude Dangote buys from other African countries, as well as more distant producers, including the United States and Guyana, is priced in dollars.

Some domestic Nigerian crude is priced in ?naira, but is still expensive, Dangote ?says, as the NNPC prices Nigerian ?crude against international benchmarks such as Brent that include freight and logistics costs even though domestic refiners do not incur them.

Group Vice President of Dangote Industries Limited Edwin Devakumar told Reuters that certain Nigerian cargoes ?were more expensive than comparable imports without giving precise figures.

The grades Dangote has imported include U.S. WTI ?Midland crude, which ?has generally traded above Nigerian grade Bonny Light in 2026, according to S&P Global Energy Platts data.
Nigerian authorities say they are seeking to improve the flow of local crude.

Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, chief executive of regulatory body the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, said authorities were exploring a crude swap system that ?would match ?refiners with local producers to reduce delivery times and ease logistics.

Dangote's coastal location, meanwhile, gives ?it flexibility to import supplies.
"The main risk is the cost of importing these barrels," Wood Mackenzie analyst Alan Gelder said.

Bonny Light mostly cheaper than WTTI
(This story has been refiled to fix hyperlink in paragraph 4.)
Reporting by Isaac Anyaogu, additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar and Stephanie Kelly, editing by Alex Lawler and Barbara Lewis

reuters.com

[isopatch] Useful real time commodity board. tradingeconomics.com

isopatch — 10/6/2026 9:41:24 PM

[isopatch]
isopatch — 10/6/2026 8:22:38 PM
<Explosion Rocks Venezuela's Second-Largest Refinery

Tuesday, Oct 06, 2026 - 08:05 PM

More bad news for the global refining market broke late Tuesday when Venezuela's second-largest refinery halted operations after a fire erupted at the facility.

The 310,000-barrel-a-day Cardon refinery shut down earlier today, according to a Reuters report citing people familiar with the matter, who said a gas line connected to its diesel hydrotreater exploded.

Footage:

Venezuela's Cardón Oil Refinery, the country's second-largest, exploded and caught fire today. The facility has reportedly halted operations, per Reuters. t.co

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) October 6, 2026#6Oct | Este martes se registró un incendio en la refinería Cardón, Falcón ????, lo que provocó la paralización de las operaciones del complejo. Los equipos de emergencia continúan desplegados en la zona intentando controlar la situación en su totalidad y determinar qué originó las llamas. ??? @elpiojolopez

— El Nacional (@ElNacionalWeb) October 6, 2026Bomberos controlan incendio producido en el área de lubricantes de la refinería Cardón de Punto Fijo. Extraofialmente se conoció que dicho incendio se habría producido por el disparo de un compresor. Se espera la versión oficial. t.co

— José Gregorio López (@elpiojolopez) October 6, 2026Cardon forms part of the 955,000-barrel-a-day Paraguana Refining Center, Venezuela's largest refining complex. State-owned PDVSA operates the refinery.

Venezuela's refineries are in poor condition after years of underinvestment, deferred maintenance and recurring equipment failures.

"Venezuela's Cardon and Amuay refineries are part of the Paraguana Refining Center, which is one of the world's largest but has been operating at a fraction of capacity for the last decade because of lack of maintenance," the Energy Information Administration wrote in a recent report.

Paraguana has historically supplied fuel to China, Singapore and Cuba, with European markets also among its export destinations. However, increased US involvement in Venezuela's oil industry has likely rerouted some of those flows.>

zerohedge.com

[E_K_S] Energy Transfer to buy Vaquero Midstream in $2.62B cash-and-stock deal Ene...

E_K_S — 10/6/2026 8:10:25 AM

Energy Transfer to buy Vaquero Midstream in $2.62B cash-and-stock deal

Energy Transfer ( ET) said Tuesday it agreed to acquire Vaquero Midstream in a $2.625B deal consisting of $1.95B in cash and ~33.3M newly issued Energy Transfer common units. Energy Transfer ( ET) said it expects the deal to strengthen its Permian Basin footprint by increasing access to growing natural gas and natural gas liquids production volumes.

Vaquero's 300-mile pipeline network serves operators across some of the most active areas of the Delaware Basin; it operates the Caymus processing complex, which includes three processing trains with a total capacity of 675M cf/day; and it owns acreage to support the construction of two additional trains that could increase total processing capacity to as much as 1.2B cf/day.

Vaquero's system operates under long-term, fee-based firm contracts and acreage dedications covering ~100K dedicated acres, and its customer contracts have an average remaining life of ~10 years.

Energy Transfer ( ET) said it expects the acquisition to be immediately accretive to distributable cash flow per common unit, as the Vaquero assets are already interconnected with Energy Transfer's downstream natural gas and natural gas liquids infrastructure.

[roguedolphin] The Five-Year Fuel Crisis: Why The World Economy Is Paying For A War It Thinks I...

roguedolphin — 10/6/2026 3:15:41 AM

The Five-Year Fuel Crisis: Why The World Economy Is Paying For A War It Thinks Is Ending

The war's damage to Gulf energy infrastructure is not a disruption that ends when the shooting stops...

MON OCT 5, AT 10:25 PM

[miraje] Red-dyed off road diesel OKed for highway use. Various state fuel, sales and car...

miraje — 10/6/2026 12:34:59 AM

Red-dyed off road diesel OKed for highway use. Various state fuel, sales and carbon taxes still apply, although pressure is on states to temporary lower or remove them. Also, more diesel to be released from storage. Should dampen inflation a bit. More details at the link below..

foxbusiness.com

[elmatador] Dangote plans a 1,000MW gas to power plant as Part of Lamu Refinery Project Dan...

elmatador — 10/2/2026 1:12:39 AM

Dangote plans a 1,000MW gas to power plant as Part of Lamu Refinery Project

Dangote Industries plans to develop a 1,000-megawatt liquefied natural gas (LNG) power plant in Lamu as part of its proposed oil refinery project, a move that could significantly expand Kenya’s electricity generation capacity.

According to The Africa Report, the Kenyan government is negotiating with Dangote Industries to increase the planned capacity of the power plant to 1,000MW, with the facility expected to provide a more stable source of electricity for industrial operations.

It will build a gas pipeline from Tanzania to Kenya

The gas to power would be commissioned in 203

[elmatador] Argentina’s to become Mercosur's Russia. The Gas Station of Chile, Brazil, Urugu...

elmatador — 10/1/2026 4:04:05 AM

Argentina’s to become Mercosur's Russia. The Gas Station of Chile, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay.

In an unprecedented logistical feat, Argentina began utilizing a reversed network of Bolivian pipelines to pump Vaca Muerta gas directly into Brazil. Brazil’s industrial sector is projected to demand 30 million cubic meters per day of natural gas, making Argentine gas highly strategic.

Argentina and Paraguay signed a major agreement to evaluate a 1,050 km pipeline that would pump Vaca Muerta gas through Paraguay and directly into Southern Brazil.

The administration of President Javier Milei passed Decree 580/2026, which unified pipeline tariffs and eliminated decades-old emergency rules.

This critical reform allows producers to sign stable, long-term, dollar-denominated export contracts with neighboring nations.

Beyond regional pipelines, the massive $51 billion Argentina LNG project—backed by a $6 billion non-binding term sheet from the US EXIM Bank

Elmat: We want a Qatar in Guyana and a Russia down South, AKS. We want to have rich neighbors, Brasil is tired of losers' neghbors :-)

Argentina’s Growing Natural Gas Exports to Reshape Regional Market
Fri 20 Feb, 2026 - 9:24 AM ET

Fitch Ratings-Toronto/Santiago/Chicago/New York-20 February 2026:

Recent and upcoming infrastructure improvements could accelerate natural gas exports from Argentina’s Vaca Muerta Basin and reshape natural gas markets in the region, says Fitch Ratings. Argentinian midstream companies, Chilean power generation companies, and upstream producers are the most likely beneficiaries.

The immediate impact on corporate ratings is limited as most Argentine corporate ratings are constrained by Argentina’s ‘B-?’ Country Ceiling, reflecting transfer and convertibility risk. Longer term, a scenario of sustainably higher hydrocarbon exports could improve Argentina’s trade balance and help rebuild international reserves, which would be supportive of the sovereign rating and Country Ceiling.

Argentina’s natural gas production could reach new highs in 2026 after rising about 15% from 2021 to 2025, mainly due to higher output from the Vaca Muerta formation in the Neuquén Basin. Infrastructure constraints are easing, and export capacity is expanding. Vaca Muerta is one of the world’s largest shale gas deposits, but transportation bottlenecks have constrained output. Argentina still relies on imports during the winter peak season.

Investment in Vaca Muerta has accelerated as Argentina’s economic and legal frameworks stabilize and the removal of capital controls. This has improved access to international market access.

New pipeline projects are improving transport links to major demand centers and export routes. The Argentina LNG project, led by YPF S.A. (CCC+), is progressing towards FID.

This could mark a strategic shift for the country from a seasonal importer to an emerging global supplier.

Fitch sees policy execution, including stable regulation, clear export protocols and efficient permitting, as key to sustaining investment momentum.

The expansion of the Perito Moreno Pipeline segment was awarded to Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. (TGS) (B-/Stable), with an estimated investment of about USD700 million for three compressor stations totaling 90,000 HP and complementary works across the system.

The project is expected to increase capacity from 21 to 35 million cubic meters per day, initially adding around 14 million cubic meters per day of evacuation capacity from Vaca Muerta, supporting supply to Buenos Aires and the Litoral and reducing reliance on LNG and alternative fuels during winter.

The mandate adds a new source of revenue and reinforces TGS’s market position and strategic infrastructure role within Argentina.

For Chilean power generators Enel Chile S.A. (BBB+/Stable), Enel Generacion Chile S.A. (BBB+/Stable), Engie Energia Chile S.A. (BBB/Stable), and Colbun S.A. (BBB+/Stable), more consistent supply of pipeline gas from Argentina will likely reduce reliance on LNG imports, supporting margins and dispatch competitiveness for combined cycle fleets.

Natural gas represented around 15% of Chile’s 2025 electricity generation and will remain the base load of Chile’s electric system as it plans to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2040.

Chile currently has seven cross-border gas pipelines linked to Argentina with total capacity of roughly 20 million cubic meters per day but still often rely on seaborne LNG due to inconsistent supply from Argentina.

Most of the LNG imported is through GNL Quintero S.A. (A-/Stable), a 15 million cubic meters per day regasification terminal, with a storage capacity of 334,000 cubic meters.

Upstream oil and gas companies operating in Argentina including YPF, Tecpetrol S.A. (BB-/Stable), Pampa Energía (B-/Stable), and Pluspetrol S.A. (BB/Stable) should also see an incremental revenue and earnings boost from rising gas production.

However, oil remains the main earnings driver and focus of incremental capital deployment, given its easier monetization and access to international pricing.

Argentine oil and gas capex surged in 2024-2025 but should ease in late 2026 through 2028 with the scheduled conclusion of major capital projects.

[elmatador] The United States government is providing up to $7 billion in financing framewor...

elmatador — 10/1/2026 3:51:46 AM

The United States government is providing up to $7 billion in financing frameworks to support Argentina's energy and mining sectors, heavily targeting the infrastructure needed to unlock the Vaca Muerta shale basin.

The Vaca Muerta continues attracting considerable attention from foreign energy companies. Estimates put 2026 upstream investment in the Vaca Muerta at around $10 billion. YPF, which was nationalized by President Cristina de Kirchner in 2012, budgeted 2026 capital expenditures of $5.8 billion, with around 70% to be spent on the company’s unconventional upstream acreage in the Vaca Muerta. This represents a solid increase over the $4.5 billion invested during 2025.

brazilenergyinsight.com

This will help Brazil as Brazil will be a big consumer of Vaca Muerta gas.

Argentina will become Mercosur Gas Station

Argentina uses existing Bolivian pipeline infrastructure (via a tripartite agreement with YPFB and private energy firms) to wheel Vaca Muerta gas directly into Brazil.

Argentina has also considered building direct pipeline links or reviving dormant routes like the Uruguaiana-Porto Alegre pipeline.

Argentina supplies natural gas to Chile through regional cross-border connections, utilizing both northern and southern regional integration points.

Plans include extending current domestic lines to the Uruguayan border and establishing new direct pipeline paths into Paraguay.

[isopatch]
isopatch — 9/30/2026 11:46:10 AM
<Oil Hits Session High After DOE Shows Lowest Midwest Gasoline Stocks On Record

Wednesday, Sep 30, 2026 - 11:21 AM

Oil prices rose to session highs after today's DOE inventory data refuted the latest cheerful API prints from Tuesday afternoon.

Instead of the API-reported builds in distillates and gasoline, the DOE reported that in the last week both products drew across the board, with a modest increase in Cushing inventories, while crude inventories rose by 922K

API

Crude +1.0mm
Gasoline +3.0mm
Distillates +0.3mm
Cushing +0.2mm
DOE

Crude +0.922mm
Gasoline -1.684mm
Distillates -2.251k
Cushing +553mm

As Bloomberg notes, that’s a large draw of distillate fuels at 2.25 million barrels, well below the 300,000 barrels increase API saw. The October diesel contract is expiring today, so price action is a little murky, but the most-active contract is holding pretty strong gains near $4.75 a gallon.

Cushing stocks saw another bounce off 'tank bottoms' even as crude inventories saw a modest increase, while product stocks both saw modest draws...

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Here' a look at some more of the data:

PADD 1B gasoline -1,422k
PADD 1 Distillates -254k
PADD 3 crude +3,417k
Refinery utilization -1.5ppt vs est. -0.3ppt
Refinery crude inputs -554k b/d
Crude imports -179k b/d
Crude production +16k b/d

The 922,000 barrel build in commercial crude stockpiles was close to the 1 million barrel increase seen by the API on Tuesday. It compares with a Bloomberg survey of analysts that saw the stockpile shrinking by 710,000 barrels and Bloomberg users’ expectations just before the data were released of a 1 million barrel build.

Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose to the highest since May. At 24 million barrels, inventories are inching further away from the 20-million mark generally seen as the minimum operating level for the storage hub. It’s the second straight week of builds at Cushing.

Meanwhile, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined by another 785K barrels; SPR stockpiles will continue to draw further throughout the end of the year after the energy department re-offered 40 million barrels of sour oil in a tender. The oil was offered as part of the exchange program, and must be returned in kind between 2027 and 2029. It’s to be seen if the government will be able to attract interest from traders and refiners. The minimum premium has fallen to 7% to 9.5%, compared with as much as 22% earlier this year. A total of 132 million barrels of crude has been taken out of the SPR since late March under a program to release 172 million barrels as part of a relief plan coordinated by the International Energy Agency aimed at lowering energy costs.

[url=][/url]

That means that the build in commercial crude stockpiles was mostly offset by another 785,000 barrels withdrawn from the SPR. That reduced the overall nationwide crude build to just 137,000 barrels in the week to Sep 25.

[url=][/url]

Taking a closer look, we find that gasoline stocks in the US Midwest are at the lowest level on record. Overall, the US has the least gasoline on hand since November 2014, with stockpiles falling by 1.68 million barrels.

[url=][/url]

On a seasonal basis, PADD2 (Midwest) gasoline has also never been lower.

[url=][/url]

Distillate fuel stockpiles in the US also remain at their lowest seasonal levels on record. Stockpiles fell in every single region. Exports, meanwhile, rebounded to 1.5 million barrels a day. While discussion of a US diesel export ban has died down a bit, it hasn’t faded entirely, and a number like this might revitalize some of those conversations.

[url=][/url]

Linked to that, there was another big drop is US crude processing by refineries. Over the past three weeks, crude consumptions fell by 1.3 million barrels a day. That’s the lowest since May. Rates fell in all regions, with the exception of the Rockies

Imports of Brazilian oil rose to the highest level since November 2024 and the highest level ever for this time of year, with the US importing nearly 500,000 barrels each day last week. While it’s unclear what’s driving the move, one explanation could be that strong American refinery runs are supporting demand for nearby foreign crudes while, at the same time, less Brazilian oil heads to Asia.

At the same time, imports from Canada rose for the second time in three weeks. Shipments from the country remain fairly low at 3.4 million barrels a day, but there was an uptick nonetheless. PADD 2 takes the most Canadian crude out of any region, so the build in Cushing was likely at least partially due to shipments from the North.

Bloomberg offers another take on falling refining crude processing: Canadian crude delivered via pipeline to both the US Gulf Coast and the Patoka hub are at a contango, a sign of weak demand. On the flip side, WTI at Houston is still in a backwardated structure. That can be partly explained by the light-heavy differential, that currently favors the use of light crude over heavy crudes from places like Canada and Venezuela.

WTI futures jumped a few cents higher to session high in a knee-jerk reaction to the report. EIA data showed a relatively unexciting US crude stockpile build of roughly 900,000 barrels, but the markets focus is elsewhere this week - namely, diesel.

[url=][/url]

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil-hits-session-high-after-doe-shows-lowest-midwest-gasoline-stocks-record

[kidl] Is Iran losing its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz? | US-Israel war on Iran N...

kidl — 9/30/2026 11:07:10 AM

Is Iran losing its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz? | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

[isopatch]
isopatch — 9/29/2026 8:56:22 PM

[Elroy Jetson] Russia may use far less diesel and fuel oil than other industrialized nations si...

Elroy Jetson — 9/29/2026 11:17:31 AM

Russia may use far less diesel and fuel oil than other industrialized nations simply due to cost, as kerosene is more costly than diesel and both are way more costly than Mazut-100.

Russia does have a GOST standard for blending diesel with up to 50% kerosene which decreases the cloud and gel point temperature of diesel.
.

It's also possible Russia normally has a diesel surplus for export due to a heavier reliance on kerosene blending.

For some reason Russia's transport system is heavily skewed toward gasoline, and Russian buildings do heat with Mazut-100.

[Salt'n'Peppa] Maybe the Russians should just buy Canadian diesel, which works fine down to -50...

Salt'n'Peppa — 9/29/2026 10:56:47 AM

Maybe the Russians should just buy Canadian diesel, which works fine down to -50C. Ask me how I know!
Is your story completely accurate?

[Elroy Jetson] Petrobras previously signed a 0.8 metric ton LNG contract with the Sempra LNG fa...

Elroy Jetson — 9/29/2026 9:11:24 AM

Petrobras previously signed a 0.8 metric ton LNG contract with the Sempra LNG facility in Port Arthur Texas.

These two LNG contracts total 7% of total natural gas consumption in Brazil.

Roughly 75% of Brazil's current natural gas demand of 22.8 metric tons is produced by local wells, with 25% coming via pipeline from wells in Bolivia.
.

Petrobras, the dominant natural gas supplier to customers in Brazil, has bought backup gas production for Brazil's hydroelectric production. Petrobras owns two LNG regasification facilities, one in Rio de Janeiro and the other in Bahia.

These purchases also allow Petrobras the freedom to reinject natural gas back into domestic offshore wells to maintain oil production at high levels.

[E_K_S] Cheniere signs 22-year LNG supply deal with Petrobras Under the agr...

E_K_S — 9/29/2026 8:53:54 AM

Cheniere signs 22-year LNG supply deal with Petrobras

Under the agreement, Petrobras ( PBR) ( PBR.A) will purchase about 800,000 metric tons of LNG annually from Cheniere Marketing. The LNG will be sold on a free-on-board basis, meaning Petrobras will take responsibility for shipping the fuel from Cheniere’s export facilities.

For investors, the agreement adds another long-term customer to Cheniere’s contracted LNG portfolio and provides greater visibility into future cash flow. The company said the contract will also provide commercial support for potential expansion of its existing liquefaction facilities, although it did not specify which expansion projects could be supported by the deal.

At the contracted volume, Petrobras would purchase roughly 17.6 million metric tons of LNG over the full 22-year term, assuming deliveries remain at 0.8 million tons annually.

Cheniere CEO Jack Fusco said the agreement extends the company’s relationship with a major energy buyer and provides additional fixed-fee cash flow visibility as Cheniere considers adding liquefaction capacity at existing sites.

The companies didn't disclose the contract’s financial value, pricing formula or when deliveries are scheduled to begin.

[Elroy Jetson] Limiting Russians to purchasing just 4 gallons of fuel per vehicle says everythi...

Elroy Jetson — 9/29/2026 4:04:12 AM

Limiting Russians to purchasing just 4 gallons of fuel per vehicle says everything statistics won't - themoscowtimes.com Along with their continued ban on the export of any diesel or gasoline, and Russia's current fuel imports.
.

For Americans and others it's important to understand why diesel and "fuel oil" are so little used in Russia.

Diesel starts to cloud with solid paraffin molecules and clog fuel filters at 32F (0C). Diesel and what we call "heating oil" becomes an unusable jelly at temperatures below 15F (-12C).

Russian vehicles using diesel have to achieve such a large advantage that they justify the extra expense and nuisance of active fuel heaters. Every vehicle in Russia which can possibly run on gasoline does so - even many heavier vehicles which in the West would be fitted with diesel engines.

For this same reason Russian buildings also don't use our fuel oil from the diesel fraction. Russians instead rely on a heavy black residual oil, which is high in sulfur, called Mazut-100 which doesn't turn solid at low temperatures.

Russian refineries can't purchase US made refinery cracking catalysts so Mazut-100 is the heavy fraction from the distillation column which Russian refineries can't crack into lighter fuel products. Russian refineries also don't bother to remove sulfur because they don't use the cracking catalysts which in western refineries would be quickly destroyed by any Sulfur in the oil. This also applies to refineries in Iran, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan.

Russian refineries produce massive quantities of Mazut-100 and diesel, far in excess of domestic uses for heating, so Russian refineries traditionally sell Mazut-100 to foreign refineries as one of the cheapest "crude oil" feedstocks and they're ordinarily the largest exporter of diesel which has a very restricted domestic demand in Russia.

Mazut-100 — stinky high-sulfur and contaminant heavy oil, perfect for heating Russian buildings where low price is the only thing that matters during the long Winters — plenty left over to sell to foreign refineries as the world's cheapest "crude oil"

[kidl] Putin decree: Data on oil refineries should remain secret Kremlin chief Vladimi...

kidl — 9/29/2026 1:39:16 AM

Putin decree: Data on oil refineries should remain secret

Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin has signed a decree restricting access to data on the country's oil refineries and energy exports. This is what the Reuters agency writes. This includes information about the product range of refined products, export volumes, pricing and the supply chain of sellers, buyers and intermediaries, as well as transport routes, terminals and storage locations. The decree prohibits the dissemination of confidential information via the media or on the Internet, unless it is published by the company itself. Relevant customs data is also subject to secrecy. Putin gave the Russian government a deadline of ten days to determine which specific products will be affected by the restrictions. With the decree, Putin is apparently reacting to the intensified Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.

[miraje] Ah yes. Election time in America, when all the crazy stories pollute the interw...

miraje — 9/26/2026 3:44:41 PM

Ah yes. Election time in America, when all the crazy stories pollute the interwebs.

Wrong board...even though you sneaked in the word "gasoline" to legitimise the message.

Calm down, Salty. You're the one who turned it into an off topic political rant. The article I linked had nothing to do with Trump.

FYI, I'm totally opposed to Trump's tariff war on Canada. Stupid and harmful policies that hurt the economies of both countries I'd like to see completely free trade in both directions

[isopatch] 2 rec's.

isopatch — 9/26/2026 3:39:39 PM

[miraje] They’re just discovering this now??? No, as you noted, it's been going on for a...

miraje — 9/26/2026 3:20:22 PM

They’re just discovering this now???

No, as you noted, it's been going on for a long time. As the article noted, there are around 300 pending lawsuits from various states, cities and podunk hamlets, all trying to grab some "climate change" payouts from fossil fuel companies. A feast for lawyers and greenies that we all pay for.

Now the Supreme Court is going to rule on Boulder County vs Suncor Energy. If they correctly toss that bogus lawsuit, the precedent set should shut down that whole piecemeal extortion game. It's an issue for Congress, not the courts, to address..

[kidl] Interesting weekend reading ... The truth behind Donald Trump’s ‘biggest oil de...

kidl — 9/26/2026 2:49:24 PM

Interesting weekend reading ...

The truth behind Donald Trump’s ‘biggest oil deal in world history’ | Trump administration | The Guardian

[Selectric II] They’re just discovering this now??? It’s been going on for decades, and the co...

Selectric II — 9/26/2026 1:37:35 PM

They’re just discovering this now???

It’s been going on for decades, and the costs have been astronomical…to consumers, energy companies, and society. We’re paying the price right now.

And the Plaintiff lawyers get rich. And to whom do they pay a chunk of their take in political contributions - a tithe - in order to keep the tap open? Guess.

[Salt'n'Peppa] Ah yes. Election time in America, when all the crazy stories pollute the interwe...

Salt'n'Peppa — 9/26/2026 12:50:11 PM

Ah yes. Election time in America, when all the crazy stories pollute the interwebs.
Wrong board...even though you sneaked in the word "gasoline" to legitimise the message.

Money grabs? That's pocket change compared to the billions hoovered up by one family in crypto-IPO garbage, land deals with Venezuela, family construction contracts in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Gaza, Palestine, gray area insider trading (was it 1100 trades in July alone?).
How many billions more are being vacuumed up by all of his enablers? It is staggering how much.

One man's illegal war to deflect attention from the Epstein files, paid for with American lives, has done far more to increase the cost of those "everyday necessities" than any stupid climate fund...and I don't agree with politicised climate funds either.

[miraje] The USSC needs to shut down these attempted money grabs, once and for all foxne...

miraje — 9/26/2026 11:00:02 AM

The USSC needs to shut down these attempted money grabs, once and for all

foxnews.com

Wave of overlooked 'left-wing' lawsuits could come with an unexpected price tag for Americans

... Hundreds of lawsuits and other state-level "climate superfund" laws could increase the cost of gasoline, electricity and other everyday necessities Americans rely on, the report estimates...

[roguedolphin] The Biggest Energy Shock of Our Lifetime. You Don’t Own Enough Gold- Chris Mart...

roguedolphin — 9/24/2026 2:11:06 AM

The Biggest Energy Shock of Our Lifetime. You Don’t Own Enough Gold- Chris Martenson

“This is the biggest energy shock of our lifetime.” Chris Martenson explains why oil shortages, diesel inflation and global supply disruptions could hit the economy harder than most expect — and why he believes investors still don’t own enough gold. ?? Download The Private Wealth Playbook: youtube.com ?? Schedule your FREE strategy call: youtube.com

Chapters: 00:00 - The Global Energy Crisis Is Here 03:45 - How Close Are We to a Breaking Point? 05:25 - Europe Faces the Energy Shock First 07:00 - Canada, Oil, and the Trade War 08:20 - Why the Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed 10:35 - What an Energy Crisis Means for Consumers 13:51 - Diesel Prices and the Inflation Threat 17:37 - Gold, Oil, and a Broken Market Relationship 20:00 - Is Gold Being Suppressed? 21:43 - Why Chris Is Buying Gold 23:03 - The Fed’s Choice: Save Bonds or the Dollar 25:02 - Dollar Weakness and the Rush Toward Gold 27:10 - Closing Thoughts

[roguedolphin] Something Has Changed And World War Over Ukraine Is Back On The Table [graphic] ...

roguedolphin — 9/24/2026 1:59:33 AM

Something Has Changed And World War Over Ukraine Is Back On The Table

There are now two running clocks that did not exist at the beginning of the Ukraine war...

WED SEP 23, AT 10:25 PM

[Elroy Jetson] With China's refineries operating below 50% of capacity with exports of diesel b...

Elroy Jetson — 9/23/2026 8:57:00 AM

With China's refineries operating below 50% of capacity with exports of diesel banned, America's top Communist Boss Donald Trump is now seriously considering copying China's policy and banning diesel export by private oil companies.

"America's Republican Communist Party will not allow Capitalist-Roaders determine Party policy. Capitalists who refuse to comply will be arrested by the State Police and put on public trial with a potential death penalty for anti-state activities," a White House spokesperson warned.

Trump remains determined to show Xi during his visit to the US that America's Republican Communist Party is as wholly committed to Universal Socialism as the Chinese Communist Party.

Party insiders say Trump was greatly influenced by his famous love affair with North Korean leader Kim Jung Il when the two exchanged florid love letters expressing their love and mutual admiration.

[elmatador] Who is investing new capital into Venezuela's post-Maduro oil sector include: U...

elmatador — 9/23/2026 1:04:57 AM

Who is investing new capital into Venezuela's post-Maduro oil sector include:

United States Entities

North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP): A private entity backed by investors that committed up to $100 billion in infrastructure funding to operate 17 oil fields under a 100-year concession.
Chevron: Pledged over $7 billion over the next five years to double its daily extraction capacity to 600,000 barrels.
Halliburton: Signed agreements to supply modern oilfield services, advanced drilling tech, and digital subsurface mapping.
U.S. Federal Government: Holds a 35% equity stake in NABEP’s parent corporation through the landmark August 2026 bilateral treaty.

European Energy Majors

Eni (Italy): Secured a 25-year operational agreement to invest in extraction facilities and settle outstanding debt structures.
GE Vernova (USA/Europe operations): Contracted to rebuild and stabilize Venezuela's heavily degraded electrical grid powering the oil fields.
TotalEnergies (France): Finalizing capital restructuring plans to re-enter major production projects in the Orinoco Belt.
Repsol (Spain): Expanding capital deployments to boost production limits across existing joint ventures.

Global Trading Houses

Vitol: Deploying capital into shipping, logistics, and blending infrastructure to handle the upgraded export volumes.
Trafigura: Investing heavily in supply-chain mechanisms and port terminals to streamline open-market distribution.

[elmatador] Who is buying Venezuelan oil today? Global Commodity Traders Vitol: Purchases, ...

elmatador — 9/23/2026 1:02:54 AM

Who is buying Venezuelan oil today?
Global Commodity Traders

Vitol: Purchases, markets, and ships a massive share of total exports.
Trafigura: Manages logistics and global distribution for a majority of the open-market barrels.

???? United States Buyers

U.S. Gulf Coast Refiners: Process heavy Merey crude through specialized complex refining networks.
Citgo: Operates as a major refinery buyer of Venezuelan heavy crude oil.
Chevron: Exports heavy volume through expanded operational agreements and joint ventures.
U.S. Department of Energy: Purchases guaranteed output to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

?? Asian Refiners

Indian Private Refiners: Buy massive tanker volumes to process in high-capacity Asian refining hubs.
Chinese State & Independent Refiners: Compete on the open market for crude that they previously bought via covert blending hubs

???? European Energy Majors

Repsol (Spain): Lifts crude through expanded joint-venture agreements to supply European grids.
Eni (Italy): Off-takes oil as part of debt-settlement and energy supply frameworks.
TotalEnergies (France): Participates in newly structured joint production agreements.

[elmatador] How might the evolving situation in Venezuela affect global oil and LNG markets?...

elmatador — 9/23/2026 12:53:53 AM

How might the evolving situation in Venezuela affect global oil and LNG markets?

Key takeaways

J.P. Morgan Global Research projects Venezuela’s oil production could realistically ramp up to 1.3 to 1.4 million barrels per day (mbd) within two years of a political transition.
There could also be a significant impact on the global LNG market, subject to conducive policies and infrastructure investments.
For instance, Venezuela could export natural gas to neighboring countries such as Colombia, reducing their reliance on imported LNG.

Recent developments in Venezuela could have ripple effects across the global energy landscape, given the country’s vast natural resources. What could this mean for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets?

The impact on oil markets

The Trump administration is looking to restore Venezuela’s declining oil infrastructure. With Venezuela sitting on the world’s largest proven oil reserves — around 303 billion barrels — the impact on medium- and long-term global oil supply could be significant.

Elmat: This article is from January 8th.

At present, Venezuela’s oil output stands at around 750 thousand barrels per day (kbd). However, J.P. Morgan Global Research projects this could realistically ramp up to 1.3 to 1.4 million barrels per day (mbd) within two years of a political transition.

Elmat: Two years? Venezuela produces about 1.2 million to 1.25 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil (tracked via Trading Economics at ~1,201,000 bpd as of August 2026, and official/diplomatic estimates around 1.23M–1.25M bpd)

This is especially if major oil firms return to the country, which could give production an additional boost. “With new investments and major institutional reforms, output could potentially expand to 2.5 mbd over the next decade,” said Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan. “As such, the evolving situation in Venezuela could immediately represent one of the largest upside risks to the global oil supply outlook for 2026–2027 and beyond.”

This could, in turn, mark a notable shift in global energy dynamics. With greater access to a substantial portion of global reserves, the U.S. could potentially exert more influence over oil market trends, helping to stabilize oil prices and keep them within historically lower ranges. Already, the Trump administration has stated that Venezuela must agree to partner exclusively with the U.S. on oil production. “This increased leverage could not only enhance U.S. energy security, but also reshape the balance of power in international energy markets,” Kaneva noted.

“The evolving situation in Venezuela could immediately represent one of the largest upside risks to the global oil supply outlook for 2026–2027 and beyond.”

Natasha Kaneva

Head of Global Commodities Strategy, J.P. Morgan

The impact on LNG markets

In addition to its extensive oil reserves, Venezuela holds the world’s seventh largest natural gas reserves, estimated at 6,300 billion cubic meters (bcm) — ranking just below China and surpassing both Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Despite this, current production stands at approximately 30 bcm/year and is entirely consumed domestically, with virtually no exports. This suggests the evolving situation in Venezuela has significant potential to impact the global LNG market, subject to conducive policies and infrastructure investments.

Firstly, Venezuelan gas has long been considered a backfill option for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG facilities, which are currently facing declining domestic feedstock. Trinidad and Tobago has a total operational LNG liquefaction capacity of 16 bcm/year across three operational trains, and one train is currently being decommissioned due to a lack of feedgas. Major foreign shareholders have been actively seeking upstream backfill projects to offset the decline in production, including Venezuelan gas fields. The U.S. has already granted preliminary permission to negotiate with PDVSA (the state-owned oil and gas company of Venezuela) to develop the Dragon field of Venezuela, with the mandatory involvement of U.S. companies.

“Given recent developments in Venezuela, we believe this initiative is gaining the necessary momentum for further advancement and represents the most immediate opportunity for Venezuelan gas to impact the global LNG market. Should the project succeed, we estimate that Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG exports could increase by up to 6 bcm/year — or by as much as 10 bcm/year if the decommissioned train is brought back online,” said Otar Dgebuadze, who specializes in European Natural Gas and Global LNG research at J.P. Morgan.

Secondly, Venezuela could export natural gas to neighboring countries, reducing their reliance on imported LNG. Colombia is the most likely candidate, as the two countries are already connected via a pipeline. While the pipeline has been idle since 2015, recent statements from both Colombian and Venezuelan officials have suggested a potential revival, indicating its operational readiness. “With a nameplate capacity of 5 bcm/year, this pipeline could offset Colombia’s current LNG needs of 2.5–3 bcm/year, which will likely increase as domestic production continues to decline,”Dgebuadze noted.

Over the medium term, Venezuela could even revisit its LNG export ambitions, which have long been discussed but have never materialized. “With the right partners and legislative framework, the development of an LNG export project in Venezuela is not inconceivable,” Dgebuadze added.

jpmorgan.com

[elmatador] Aliko Dangote happy. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery reported profitability recen...

elmatador — 9/23/2026 12:52:03 AM

Aliko Dangote happy. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery reported profitability recently, recording a US$1.82 billion after-tax profit on US$13.9 billion in revenue for the first half of 2026.

Financial Snapshot

H1 2026 Revenue: US$13.9 billion

H1 2026 Profit (After Tax): US$1.82 billion

Capacity: Scaled to 600,000–700,000 barrels per day

IPO Valuation: Valued at roughly $48 billion–$49 billion during its historic public offering

Aliko Dangote will build a new 700,000 barrel refinery here in Kenya....

[roguedolphin] THIS IS WAR! No More Cars or Planes. Neverending War Of Self-Sacrifice For The S...

roguedolphin — 9/21/2026 1:51:33 AM

THIS IS WAR! No More Cars or Planes. Neverending War Of Self-Sacrifice For The Satanic Pedovore Club

‘I Am Legend’ predicted the current prices at the pump in 2007. We're going to see oil prices, gas prices go up so dramatically and eventually most people won't even have access to it, which is all part of Agenda 2030. They've been talking for decades about wanting to stop people from driving, stop them from flying. Well, this is how they're going to do it....

[Elroy Jetson] China's refineries are operating at 50% of capacity, leaving the world short of ...

Elroy Jetson — 9/21/2026 12:19:01 AM

China's refineries are operating at 50% of capacity, leaving the world short of diesel and jet fuel.

China has been Iran's sole customer, which no longer pays off in a discount. Bessent announced a lot of sanctions which he then failed to impose.

[Elroy Jetson] Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told an energy conference that, "the strategic buffers bu...

Elroy Jetson — 9/20/2026 5:54:15 AM

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told an energy conference that, "the strategic buffers built up in global crude markets after the recent Iran conflict are now played out."

Wirth added, "it's harder to envision a scenario where prices soften quickly," a notable shift from an executive who typically avoids bold near-term price calls.

Until China brings their full refining capacity back online and resumes exports, diesel and jet fuel will continue to sell at prices which are two or three times the price levels prior to Trump's attack on Iran. China is the only nation with plenty of spare refinery throughput. Since the blockage of the Strait of Homuz,

Since the problems in the Persian Gulf, China has purchased far less oil on global markets and has banned export of all refined fuels, focusing instead on supplying only the local Chinese market demand. Many large petroleum users in China have also been shifted to coal.

Chevron also outlined a $7 billion expansion plan in Venezuela, funded entirely from cash generated by Chevron's three existing joint ventures there with PDVSA. The goal is to more than double output to roughly 600,000 barrels per day by 2031.

Wirth says he has not spoken with Trump since August 3, 2026, when Trump publicly criticized him on Truth Social for not lowering fuel prices and for not praising Trump's oil and gas policies when he was recently interviewed by Fox News.

[kidl] Shipping’s New Normal: Slower Trade, Higher Costs, Bigger Profits

kidl — 9/19/2026 6:35:28 PM

[Elroy Jetson] Nvidia is offering a lot less than it might seem. Nvidia's "residual value guar...

Elroy Jetson — 9/19/2026 3:45:22 PM

Nvidia is offering a lot less than it might seem.

Nvidia's "residual value guarantee" offers only up to $105 billion for the PORTS-Pike project that will cost an estimated $500 billion or more.

There's plenty of risk for all lenders and investors in this project because Nvidia's guarantee is only equal to their 65% profit margin they will have been paid in cash to supply equipment to PORTS-Pike.

Nvidia will be paid cash for their actual cost of the equipment they will provide PORTS-Pike, and they can reserve the risk of this "guarantee" against the actual cash profit they took in on the equipment they supplied.

Nvidia is only offering a guarantee of "residual value" for each of the nine data center phases that are successfully completed and upon which OpenAi begins making lease payments - and in any event, not until 2029.

If this project doesn't pay cash for the required amount of Nvidia equipment, there is NO residual value guarantee from Nvidia. If the project is liquidated, the chips go back to Nivida in return for the residual value guarantee equal to the profit margin Nvidia made on those chips, with Nvidia keeping the cash paid for their actual cost in the chips.

All lease payments from OpenAi reduce the residual value guarantee from Nvidia AND the guarantee from Nvidia TERMINATES at the very moment OpenAi ever achieves a satisfactory credit rating.

And of course PORTS-Pike sits on top of land previously used to process nuclear fuel, so there may be some unknown risk there for investors as well - not for Nvidia or course.
.

Separately, Nvidia is also investing $1.5 billion into SoftBank's SB-Energy, which has many projects other than PORT-Pike.

Nvidia may invest up to another $1.5 billion in SB-Energy leading to the date SoftBank hopes will be the $50 billion value IPO for SB-Energy - potentially a massive payoff for Nvidia.

[E_K_S] Here are three publicly traded companies that share structural similarities with...

E_K_S — 9/19/2026 12:48:06 PM

Here are three publicly traded companies that share structural similarities with SB Energy—independent power producers (IPPs) with unregulated merchant exposure and growing data center/tech-tenant strategies. Note: none are perfect comparisons, as SB Energy's scale of unbuilt backlog is unique.

1. Constellation Energy (CEG) Corporate Structure & Model: Constellation is the largest U.S. operator of carbon-free nuclear power, formed in 2022 when it was spun off from Exelon. It operates as a merchant power producer, selling electricity into competitive wholesale markets rather than under regulated utility rate structures. The company is aggressively positioning itself as a "behind-the-meter" power provider for AI data centers, exemplified by its Calpine acquisition and agreements to supply nuclear power directly to facilities like Microsoft's Crane Clean Energy Center and CyrusOne data centers in Texas.

Returns to Shareholders: Constellation has a shareholder-return focused capital allocation strategy. It pays a growing quarterly dividend ($0.4265/share in 2026, up from $0.141/share in 2022) and has an active share repurchase program, with a $5 billion authorization and nearly $2.7 billion deployed since its spinoff. The trailing-twelve-month ROE is 16.81%, well above the utility industry average.

Stock Performance (Last ~5 Years): As a 2022 spinoff, a strict 5-year history isn't available. However, since its separation, CEG has been one of the top-performing large-cap energy stocks, driven by the nuclear/AI power thesis. The stock trades around $255 (Sept 2026) and analysts see ~37% upside to an average target of $348.

2. Vistra Corp. (VST) Corporate Structure & Model: Vistra is a Fortune 500 integrated retail electricity and power generation company with a diversified fleet spanning natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage. It operates across multiple competitive power markets (PJM, ERCOT, ISO New England) and combines merchant generation with a large retail electricity business. Like SB Energy, Vistra is actively pursuing growth tied to data center demand, recently acquiring Cogentrix's 5,500 MW gas portfolio to serve growing power needs.

Returns to Shareholders: Vistra pays a modest dividend ($0.92/share, ~0.65% yield) but is primarily focused on share buybacks and growth investments. It has returned significant capital via repurchases while maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet and targeting mid-teens levered returns on acquisitions.

Stock Performance (Last ~5 Years): VST has been a strong performer, though volatile. The stock trades around $141 (Sept 2026) with a 52-week range of $133–$220, and analysts maintain a "Strong Buy" consensus with a $217 target. The pullback from highs reflects broader utility/AI-power sentiment swings, but the long-term trend has been upward as the company consolidated the competitive power space.

3. Talen Energy (TLN) Corporate Structure & Model: Talen is an independent power producer (IPP) that produces and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale markets, primarily PJM and WECC. Its fleet is anchored by nuclear (Susquehanna) and gas assets. Talen pioneered the "behind-the-meter" nuclear data center model: it developed the Cumulus Data Campus adjacent to Susquehanna, sold it to AWS, and signed a long-term PPA to supply carbon-free power directly to the campus. It continues to expand via gas acquisitions (Cornerstone portfolio).

Returns to Shareholders: Talen currently pays no dividend and focuses on reinvesting cash flow into growth and debt reduction, targeting net leverage below 3.5x Adjusted EBITDA. It has engaged in share repurchases but is not a consistent income vehicle.

Stock Performance (Last ~5 Years): TLN's public market history is shorter (listed on Nasdaq in July 2024 after trading OTC). The stock has been highly volatile, trading around $292 (Sept 2026) with a 52-week range of $280–$451. It has declined ~28% over the last 52 weeks, though analysts maintain a "Buy" with a $460 target. The stock reflects both the strong AI-power thesis and the risks of a merchant IPP with significant leverage and hedging exposure.

Summary Comparison

CompanyTickerModelDividendKey Similarity to SB EnergyKey Difference

Constellation	CEG	Merchant nuclear/gas, retail	Yes (growing)	AI data center power strategy	Much larger, established cash flows
Vistra	VST	Integrated merchant + retail	Yes (modest)	Diversified fleet, data center growth	Larger, more geographically diverse
Talen	TLN	Merchant IPP, nuclear/gas	No	Behind-the-meter nuclear data center model	Smaller scale, no backlog of SB Energy's size

Bottom line: All three trade as unregulated merchant power companies, not regulated utilities. They offer varying degrees of shareholder returns—Constellation and Vistra pay dividends, Talen does not. None carry a backlog-to-revenue ratio remotely close to SB Energy's ~1,600x, meaning SB Energy is a fundamentally more speculative, execution-dependent bet than these established peers.

[E_K_S] The data center at the center of your document is the PORTS-Pike Technology Camp...

E_K_S — 9/19/2026 12:43:55 PM

The data center at the center of your document is the PORTS-Pike Technology Campus in Pike County, Ohio.

Location & Schedule

Location: The campus is being built on and around the former Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (a decommissioned Cold War facility), spanning both private and federal land.
Online Schedule: It is expected to come online in phases beginning in 2028. The initial phase is slated to deliver 800 MW of capacity by that year.

Other Centers & Buildout The document you provided focuses almost entirely on SB Energy's Ohio project. However, the search results indicate a few other related sites in SB Energy's broader pipeline, though specific online dates for these are not yet detailed:

Texas Sites: SB Energy is also developing data center sites in Texas, including a 1.2 GW campus for OpenAI and a separate planned site where SoftBank itself will be a customer.
Regional Hub: The company's overall portfolio is concentrated in the PJM and ERCOT transmission regions, which are major data center markets.

I hope this helps clarify the specific project details mentioned in your document.

describe the value proposition for SB Energy; pubillically traded; historical & future CAGR? Is it a utility regulated company of something else?

Based on the IPO filing and financial disclosures, SB Energy is not a regulated utility. It is a merchant infrastructure developer that owns and operates power generation and data center assets without the guaranteed cost-recovery framework of regulated utilities.

Value Proposition The core proposition is vertical integration: SB Energy controls the land, the power generation, and the data center shell, positioning itself as a one-stop shop for AI hyperscalers constrained by power availability rather than network proximity.

The "Power-First" Moat
SB Energy's real asset is its ability to secure grid interconnection and power at scale—a binding constraint in data center development. Its portfolio includes 8.8 GW of contracted data center capacity and 5.5 GW of power projects. The flagship PORTS-Pike campus in Ohio (8 GW-IT) sits on a decommissioned Cold War site and will be powered by a dedicated 9.2 GW gas plant.

Tenant-Centric Model
The data centers are leased under triple-net leases where tenants (primarily OpenAI) bear operating costs, insurance, and property taxes, leaving SB Energy with base rent. The weighted average remaining contract length for data center projects is 19.6 years.

Blue-Chip Backing as Credit Enhancement
Nvidia provides a residual value guarantee up to $105 billion for 4.25 GW at PORTS-Pike, effectively acting as a credit backstop that unlocks investment-grade financing. OpenAI is both anchor tenant and equity investor (holding warrants), aligning incentives but also creating concentration risk.

Historical & Future CAGR

MetricValueContext

H1 2026 Revenue	$138.7M	+66.4% YoY
FY2025 Revenue	$213.5M	Declined from FY2024's $232.2M
Operating Loss (H1 2026)	$551.6M	Legacy solar operations ran at a loss
Net Loss (H1 2026)	$3.21B	Driven by non-cash warrant remeasurement ($2.57B)

Forward CAGR & Backlog Timing
The $439 billion backlog** is not a near-term revenue stream. Only **~10%** is expected to convert within six years; the vast majority flows after **2034**. To build this pipeline, SB Energy estimates **$170+ billion in capex, with ~90% to be raised via project-level debt—only feasible because of the 20-year OpenAI leases.

Regulatory StatusSB Energy is an Independent Power Producer (IPP) / merchant developer, not a regulated utility.

No rate base: Regulated utilities earn returns on assets approved by state commissions. SB Energy's revenues come from private contracts (PPAs and leases) with OpenAI, SoftBank, and Google—not from regulated tariffs.
Merchant risk: Its power projects sell electricity under fixed-price PPAs, but the business carries construction, permitting, and counterparty risks that regulated utilities are insulated from.
"Controlled company" status: Post-IPO, SoftBank will retain majority voting control, and SB Energy will elect not to comply with certain Nasdaq governance requirements—another marker of its non-utility, controlled-entity structure.

In short, SB Energy is betting that power availability, not compute, is the bottleneck for AI, and that its ability to co-locate generation with gigawatt-scale data centers gives it a structural advantage. The market will test whether that story justifies a ~$50B valuation before a single data center is operational.

This response is AI-generated, for reference only.

What is the ticker and/or scheduled IPO date & price

SB Energy has filed for its IPO, but the final terms are still pending. Here is what is currently known:

IPO Status

DetailStatus

Ticker	SBE
Exchange	Nasdaq Global Select Market & Nasdaq Texas
IPO Date	Not yet announced
Price Range	Not yet determined
Reported Raise	$5B – $7B (unofficial)

The company publicly filed its S-1 registration statement on September 1, 2026, but the filing explicitly states that the number of shares and price range have not yet been determined . While reports suggest a potential raise of $5 billion to $7 billion, this is not yet part of the formal offering terms .

[Salt'n'Peppa] The company says they will need to raise $170 billion to complete the project, s...

Salt'n'Peppa — 9/19/2026 10:30:32 AM

The company says they will need to raise $170 billion to complete the project, so you can double that. Especially if the government is involved.
90% of the capital raised will come from bonds and "syndicated loans", which are packaged and repackaged deals that your 401K may end up in without you ever knowing it. Similar to sub-prime packaged loans. We all know how well those turned out in 2008.

We have 3 large (and very unpopular) data centres being approved in Alberta alone. Meta, Google and Amazon, I think.

Who benefits from these massive energy black holes? Not JQP, that is for sure. Their primary purpose is to exploit yours and my personal information. That is how they make money. Selling crunched mass data and selling targeted advertising. It is the handful of multi-billionaires who are benefiting.

The AI carrot that they are selling to the public is just that. A carrot on a stick.
Anyone really believe Musk is going to Mars? LOL
Mars is uninhabitable and always will be. It has no atmosphere to speak of. It has no magnetic field. Solar radiation will cook any human that goes there.
Anyone really believe a two-legged robot that costs as much as a car will be in every home washing dishes and making the bed?
It is all lies. IMHO, of course.

The biggest downside will be household electricity and NG bills that spiral upwards out of control.

[elmatador] The gas source for the 9.2 GW PORTS Energy Center falls on Kinder Morgan As par...

elmatador — 9/19/2026 7:06:24 AM

The gas source for the 9.2 GW PORTS Energy Center falls on Kinder Morgan
As part of the broader international trade agreements funding this project, Kinder Morgan was tapped to manage natural gas transmission and power infrastructure services.

They are leading the massive pipeline buildout, which could see up to $7 billion in investment to safely channel fuel to the plant.
The supply chain for the fuel operates through a combination of unique geographical advantages and specialized infrastructure:

1. The Source: The Appalachian Basin
The plant is deliberately located in southern Ohio to take advantage of the Appalachian Basin, specifically tapping into the ultra-rich shale gas reserves of the nearby Marcellus and Utica shale formations. Because the site sits directly on top of one of the largest natural gas reserves in the world, the fuel doesn't need to be shipped across the country. It is produced locally within the region, ensuring an abundant and continuous supply. [ 1]

2. The Midstream Pipeline Network

Because a 9.2 GW plant consumes an immense volume of fuel—scaling up to nearly 1.5 to 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day (Bcf/d) at full capacity—existing regional local pipelines cannot physically accommodate the load. Kinder Morgan, alongside nearby major systems like TC Energy's Columbia Gas Transmission network, is engineering dedicated high-pressure lateral pipeline connections to tap directly into the main interstate transmission trunks passing through Ohio.

The pipeline corridors and gas supply routes are undergoing regulatory review alongside the power facilities. SB Energy’s project subsidiary, Portsmouth Gas DevCo, is actively coordinating with the Ohio Power Siting Board (OPSB) to secure the necessary environmental certificates and public need approvals for both the gas lateral lines and the power infrastructure.

The picks and shovels investment

[elmatador] Amigo ! Seat down! A 9.2GW gas fired at a single site. Powering a data center. ...

elmatador — 9/19/2026 7:00:21 AM

Amigo ! Seat down! A 9.2GW gas fired at a single site. Powering a data center.

The US state-owned power plant selling to SB Energy

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the U.S. Department of Commerce are building a completely self-contained power ecosystem for SB Energy. The electricity will come from two main sources the 9.2 GW plant and the new transmission line

By generating capacity, this single plant will surpass the Grand Coulee Dam to become the largest power facility of any fuel type in the United States.

The plant itself carries a $33.3 billion price tag. It is being financed via international funding through the U.S.-Japan Strategic Trade and Investment Agreement, with the asset ultimately owned by the U.S. government.

To move this high-voltage power from the gas-fired, over the mile-long gap between the southern private farmland and the data center buildings on the federal site, AEP Ohio and SB Energy are constructing 50 miles of massive 765-kilovolt (kV) overhead transmission lines

The Masayoshi Son SB Energy data centers

OpenAi entered as the primary anchor tenant with multi-gigawatt leases and ~$5.5 billion in warrants issued

Nvidia committing $3 billion (concurrent private placement/prepaid forward) + massive infrastructure guarantees

SB Energy is the builder of the facilities

No data centers are currently online; first revenue expected late 2026, with major backlog cash recognition stretching past 2034.

But Masayoshi and OpenAI wanted to list this year.

SB Energy got from the Dept. of Energy a Col War facility to deploy data center in Ohio. According to their U.S. Initial Public Offering (IPO) filings, their footprint is quantified by 8.8 gigawatts (GW) of contracted AI data center capacity alongside 5.5 GW of solar and battery storage projects.

Now an spanner entered the gear. Masayoshi Son is aiming for a massive $50 billion valuation, seeking to raise between $5 billion and $7 billion in the offering while keeping SoftBank as the majority owner.

SB Energy’s prospectus revealed that the company currently has zero operational data center facilities and has yet to collect data center rent. Its current $138.7 million in first-half revenue comes almost entirely from its legacy solar operations, which ran at a $551.6 million operating loss.

While SB Energy boasts a massive $439 billion future backlog, the vast majority of that revenue won't be recognized until 2034 and beyond. To actually build the infrastructure, the company estimates it needs to fund more than $170 billion in capital expenditure.

Masayoshi Son's timeline is experiencing unexpected friction because OpenAI has delayed its own highly anticipated public listing. Because SB Energy explicitly noted in its prospectus that its financial health is "substantially dependent" on OpenAI as its primary tenant, OpenAI's delay is casting uncertainty over SB Energy's immediate valuation

Where will the CAPEX come from? All in the family: The AI Circular Economy

90% of the CapEx ($150+ billion) will be raised externally via project-level debt, infrastructure bonds, and syndicated loans

This aggressive debt leverage is only possible because they hold 20-year signed leases with OpenAI.

Because these contracts are guaranteed, traditional mega-banks (like Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, and Goldman Sachs) treat the data centers like low-risk utility assets rather than speculative tech startups

Nvidia backstop. NVIDIA's presence acts as a massive credit backstop, allowing SB Energy to unlock "investment-grade financing" from Wall Street at significantly lower interest rates.

[Salt'n'Peppa] I wasn't aware of that little refinery. I note that they never got past phase 1 ...

Salt'n'Peppa — 9/18/2026 10:32:18 AM

I wasn't aware of that little refinery. I note that they never got past phase 1 of 3 in 2017 and produce only 79,000 b/d, despite a limitless supply of raw material. Perhaps a phase 2 will kick off?
Their sissy website reads more like a Greenpeace site than a refinery.

Sadly, Danielle is more interested in kickbacks from data centre hungry billionaires than producing a highly desirable product like diesel.

Thanks for the eye opener.

[johnlw] On the bright side maybe the diesel pricing these days will help polish the turd...

johnlw — 9/18/2026 9:34:06 AM

On the bright side maybe the diesel pricing these days will help polish the turd that the Sturgeon Refinery is.

[golfer72] Well said. Its not worth the paper its printed on LOL

golfer72 — 9/18/2026 4:35:03 AM

[golfer72] I was referring more to the sheep who bought the pandemic nonsense hook line and...

golfer72 — 9/18/2026 4:32:43 AM

I was referring more to the sheep who bought the pandemic nonsense hook line and sinker. Trump was in a tough spot with the election looming so i dont blame him for what he did in 2020. I do blame him for spouting nonsense like " the beautiful vaccine that saved millions of lives" for YEARS after it was clear it did the opposite. He had a lot of time to hit the off ramp on the va66ine after he was out of office. He didnt. Thats on him.

[Elroy Jetson] Trumps war with Iraq was ended two months ago with a similar "memorandum of unde...

Elroy Jetson — 9/17/2026 9:12:11 AM

Trumps war with Iraq was ended two months ago with a similar "memorandum of understanding", so you can be certain that Venezuela's MOU will lead to big things.

"Memorandums of Understanding" are bullshit wish lists of sugarplums. Let's see how Venezuela repays Exxon's $18.4 billion. LOL
.

Communist dictatorships are some of the safest places to invest.

Exxon lost $18.4 billion to government seizure in Venezuela in 2007, $4.6 billion to Putin's theft in 2002 and had another $1.6 billion in assets seized by Russia in 2015.