Silicon Investor - Semi Equipment Analysis

[Return to Sender] BPNDX/BPSOX Market Breadth and Momentum Indicators: [graphic]

Return to Sender — 5/19/2026 10:36:46 PM

BPNDX/BPSOX Market Breadth and Momentum Indicators:

[Return to Sender] Market Snapshot Dow 49363.88 -322.24 (-0.65%) Nasdaq 25891.71 -220.02 (-0.84%)...

Return to Sender — 5/19/2026 10:26:49 PM

Market Snapshot

Dow	49363.88	-322.24	(-0.65%)
Nasdaq	25891.71	-220.02	(-0.84%)
SP 500	7353.61	-49.44	(-0.67%)
10-yr Note

NYSE	Adv 788	Dec 1956	Vol 1.29 bln
Nasdaq	Adv 1538	Dec 3262	Vol 9.94 bln

Industry Watch

Strong: Energy, Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate, Consumer Staples

Weak: Materials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Communication Services, Financials, Information Technology

Moving the Market

--Reports indicate that the U.S. and Iran remain far apart on negotiations

--Weakness across mega-cap names, mixed strength in the broader market

--Treasury yields moving higher

Mega-cap stocks under pressure as yields continue to rise
19-May-26 16:25 ET

Dow -322.24 at 49363.88, Nasdaq -220.02 at 25891.71, S&P -49.44 at 7353.61
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.8%), and DJIA (-0.7%) finished lower today, pressured by rising yields and weakness across mega-cap stocks.

The communication services (-1.6%) and consumer discretionary (-1.3%) sectors were hindered by weak leadership across their largest components, including Alphabet (GOOG 384.90, -8.21, -2.09%) and Amazon (AMZN 259.34, -5.52, -2.08%). The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 0.9% lower, contributing to losses at the index level.

Notably, the information technology sector (-0.7%) finished with a more modest loss despite early-session weakness. Semiconductor names opened with a continuation of yesterday's decline, though buyers began stepping in late in the morning. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (flat) reversed a significant early drop and climbed as much as 1.5% at its intraday highs, helping the major averages briefly approach their flatlines. Memory names such as Sandisk (SNDK 1383.29, +50.28, +3.77%) and Micron (MU 698.74, +17.20, +2.52%) led the advance, while Intel (INTC 110.80, +2.63, +2.43%) also notched a nice gain.

Session highs did not hold, however, and the major averages finished firmly lower.

Other laggards include the materials sector (-2.3%), which posted the widest loss as nearly all of its components traded lower. Construction materials names such as DuPont (DD 46.56, -2.08, -4.28%) and CRH Plc. (CRH 98.53, -4.86, -4.70%) were among the weakest performers as another rise in Treasury yields pressured rate-sensitive and cyclical areas tied to housing and construction demand.

The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF finished 1.5% lower.

Builders FirstSource (BLDR 66.39, -3.79, -5.40%) was a notable laggard in the industrials sector (-1.2%), while asset managers, which are sensitive to higher interest rates through their impact on market levels and assets under management, also came under pressure alongside broader weakness in the financials sector (-1.2%).

Meanwhile, strength was concentrated across more defensive holdings. The health care sector (+1.1%) captured a nice gain, with its largest component Eli Lilly (LLY 1021.59, +33.50, +3.39%) rebounding nicely from yesterday's slide, while the utilities sector (+1.0%) captured a similar gain.

The real estate (+0.5%) and consumer staples (+0.4%) sectors notched more modest gains.

The energy sector (+1.0%) finished as one of the top performers as oil reversed earlier losses. The morning was relatively quiet on the geopolitical front, but reports that the U.S. and Iran remain far apart in negotiations began to trickle in later in the session. Crude oil futures settled today's session near their best levels, $0.16 lower (-0.2%) at $108.59 per barrel.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-1.0%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.0%) underperformed amid the weakness in growth stocks and upward pressure on Treasury yields.

Overall, today's session highlighted continued sensitivity to interest rates and mega-cap leadership, with defensive sectors providing stability while growth stocks and cyclicals remained under pressure. Going forward, the market remains focused on whether rising yields will continue to cap upside momentum or whether investors step in with a more meaningful buy-the-dip bid across recent market leaders.

U.S. Treasuries extended their recent losses on Tuesday, lifting yields to fresh highs for the year with the 30-year yield reaching a level not seen in almost 20 years. The 2-year note yield settled up three basis points to 4.12%, the 10-year note yield settled up four basis points to 4.67%, and the 30-year note yield settled up three basis points to 5.18%.

Nasdaq Composite: +11.3% YTD
Russell 2000: +10.7% YTD
S&P Mid Cap 400: +8.0% YTD
S&P 500: +7.4% YTD
DJIA: +2.7% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

Pending Home Sales rose 1.4% month-over-month in April (Briefing.com consensus 1.6%) while the March increase was revised up to 1.7% from 1.5%.

Several notable retailer earnings ahead
19-May-26 15:25 ET

Dow -247.39 at 49438.73, Nasdaq -202.83 at 25908.90, S&P -43.70 at 7359.35
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages are little changed from previous levels entering the final half hour of today's action.

Investors will receive earnings reports from Target (TGT 125.79, +2.39, +1.94%) and TJX (TJX 150.99, +0.74, +0.49%) before the opening tomorrow. Both stocks are trading higher today, though the SPDR Retail ETF (XRT 79.35, -0.24, -0.30%) is modestly lower. Recent inflation concerns have weighed on retail names as investors worry that consumer spending could slow, and the XRT is down 7.4% month-to-date.

Major averages off session highs entering final hour of session
19-May-26 14:55 ET

Dow -241.52 at 49444.60, Nasdaq -190.45 at 25921.28, S&P -39.33 at 7363.72
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.5%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.7%), and DJIA (-0.5%) remain modestly lower as the market enters the final hour of the session.

The intraday rebound across semiconductor names briefly lifted the information technology sector (-0.5%) above its flatline, but the modest gains did not hold.

The energy sector (+1.1%) now holds one of the widest gains as oil reversed its earlier losses, with crude oil futures settling today's session just $0.16 lower (-0.2%) at $108.59 per barrel. The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. seized an Iranian tanker in the Indian Ocean as President Trump weighs military strikes against Iran, with a separate article noting that the two sides remain far apart on negotiations.

S&P 500 Slips as American Tower Rallies on Upgrade While Estee Lauder Extends Losing Streak
19-May-26 14:30 ET

Dow -188.20 at 49497.92, Nasdaq -129.31 at 25982.42, S&P -26.83 at 7376.22
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.36%) is down about 27 points this afternoon, hosting the shallowest losses among the major averages.

Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Kroger (KR 70.79, +2.47, +3.62%), American Tower (AMT 183.27., +5.99, +3.38%), and Hasbro (HAS 96.22, +2.50, +2.67%) dot the top of the standings. AMT rallies after Bernstein upgraded the stock to an Outperform (from Market Perform) as they think satellite concerns overdone amid valuation opportunity.

Meanwhile, Estee Lauder (EL 79.12, -3.89, -4.86%) is today's worst laggard; the stock is poised to extend its recent losing streak to five sessions if today's losses hold, having lost circa -11.7% since the top the morning after earnings.

Gold Falls as Rising Yields, Stronger Dollar Weigh on Bullion Demand
19-May-26 14:00 ET

Dow -102.45 at 49583.67, Nasdaq -79.08 at 26032.65, S&P -14.25 at 7388.80
[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.30%) is in last place on Tuesday afternoon, down 79 points.

Gold futures settled $46.80 lower (-1.0%) at $4,511.20/oz, as Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar moved higher, reducing demand for non-yielding assets amid fading expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Prices were also pressured by easing geopolitical tensions after reports that the U.S. paused potential military action against Iran in favor of renewed negotiations.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is now +0.3% higher to $99.25.

Alphabet and Blackstone launch TPU Cloud to accelerate AI Infrastructure expansion (GOOG)
Google (GOOG/GOOGL) and Blackstone (BX) are drawing significant investor attention following the announcement of TPU Cloud, a new U.S.-based joint venture designed to commercialize GOOG’s Tensor Processing Unit infrastructure at greater scale. The partnership underscores the accelerating arms race in AI infrastructure, while also highlighting how hyperscalers are increasingly turning to alternative financing structures to fund the enormous capital requirements tied to next-generation AI compute expansion.

TPU Cloud represents a major strategic push by GOOG to commercialize its proprietary TPU accelerator ecosystem more aggressively beyond internal workloads, potentially strengthening its position against GPU-heavy competitors in the broader AI infrastructure market.
The partnership with BX allows GOOG to scale AI infrastructure deployment while sharing the massive capital burden associated with data center buildouts, helping reduce pressure on GOOG’s already elevated capex trajectory.
The JV could materially strengthen Google Cloud’s competitive positioning by offering enterprises a differentiated AI compute platform optimized around GOOG’s full-stack AI ecosystem, including Gemini and other AI services.
Investors will likely focus heavily on the financial structure of the venture, including ownership economics, funding commitments, return profiles, and whether the JV allows GOOG to expand AI capacity without fully consolidating additional infrastructure costs onto its balance sheet.
The announcement also reinforces the broader industry narrative that hyperscalers continue to see sustained multi-year demand growth for AI compute infrastructure despite increasing investor concerns around potential overcapacity risks.
From a competitive perspective, TPU Cloud could emerge as one of the more credible long-term alternatives to NVIDIA’s (NVDA) dominant AI accelerator ecosystem if GOOG can drive broader enterprise adoption of TPU-based workloads outside its own internal AI operations.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

The TPU Cloud announcement represents an important strategic evolution in GOOG’s AI infrastructure ambitions, signaling that the company increasingly views its TPU architecture not simply as an internal competitive advantage, but as a scalable external platform opportunity. Equally important, the partnership highlights a growing trend across hyperscalers toward creative financing structures that allow companies to continue funding massive AI infrastructure expansion without bearing the full capital burden independently. While the long-term opportunity could be significant if TPU adoption broadens meaningfully across enterprise AI workloads, investors will likely remain focused on whether GOOG can truly establish a viable alternative ecosystem to NVDA’s deeply entrenched CUDA dominance.

Agilysys Checks Back In With Strong Q4 Beat And Upside FY27 Guide (AGYS)

Agilysys (AGYS) is soaring after reporting its Q4 (Mar) results last night. The hospitality software provider, which offers POS, property management, payments, and other operational tools, delivered a big EPS beat, a nice bounce back after last quarter's miss. Revenue increased 11.7% yr/yr to $82.9 mln, also above expectations. More encouragingly, AGYS issued above-consensus FY27 revenue guidance at $365-370 mln.

This was a record-setting quarter across several key metrics. Subscription revenue grew 24.1% yr/yr to a record $36.9 mln, while recurring revenue, which includes subscription revenue and maintenance fees, increased roughly 18% yr/yr to a record $54.4 mln, or 65.5% of total revenue.
Customer momentum was also strong. AGYS added 20 new customers, with those deals averaging seven products each and 19 of the 20 subscription-based. It also added 85 new properties under existing customers, while total subscription ARR installed during FY26 was 32% higher than FY25.
AGYS said POS had a fantastic recovery during the year, putting it back in position as a strong hospitality POS player. Q4 subscription revenue tied to POS/POS-related modules increased 19% yr/yr.
A richer recurring revenue mix and AI-related efficiencies are also supporting margins. Gross margin expanded 370 bps yr/yr to 64.4%, and management said AGYS has entered the beginning of its gross margin expansion phase. AI is also helping improve operating leverage and accelerate product differentiation across ordering, front-desk automation, revenue intelligence, and CRS.
The FY27 guide implies another record year with stronger profitability. Revenue guidance implies roughly 15% growth at the midpoint, similar to FY26's 15.9% growth. Subscription revenue is expected to grow at least 30% again, while adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to improve to 24% from 21.2% in FY26.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight

This was a strong close to FY26 for AGYS and a nice bounce back after shares gapped lower following last quarter's report. The Q4 beat and upside FY27 guide were the main positives, but the quality of the quarter was also encouraging. Subscription revenue continues to grow at a healthy pace, customer activity was strong, and the recovery in POS supports a more favorable backdrop across AGYS' broader hospitality software platform. A richer recurring revenue mix is also supporting margins. Another positive was the commentary around AI, which is helping improve operating leverage and accelerate product differentiation, positioning AI more as a tailwind than a potential disruption risk. With FY27 guidance calling for another year of mid-teens revenue growth, 30%+ subscription growth, and stronger adjusted EBITDA margin, the report reinforces that AGYS' recurring revenue base and broader hospitality software platform are gaining traction.

Amer Sports Climbs Higher as Arc'teryx Keeps Momentum on the Ascent (AS)

Amer Sports (AS +3%) is trading higher after delivering a strong Q1 report highlighted by accelerating growth across its premium outdoor portfolio and a sizable increase to FY26 guidance. While Q2 EPS guidance was only in line, investors are focusing on the company's raised full-year outlook and continued momentum at Arc'teryx and Salomon.

Revenue surged 32.1% yr/yr to $1.95 bln, marking the company's strongest growth rate since its February 2024 IPO and reflecting broad-based demand strength across all three business segments.
Technical Apparel, AS's largest business, climbed 33% yr/yr to $885 mln, driven by +19% omni-comp growth and especially strong DTC momentum as direct sales expanded 41%. Arc'teryx remained the key growth engine, with accelerating North America demand and strong double-digit omni-comps in the US.
Management emphasized that Arc'teryx still has relatively low brand penetration in the US market, creating a long runway for growth. The company plans to increase investment in brand experience and community initiatives in 2026 to further boost awareness and conversion rates.
Outdoor Performance delivered the fastest growth, with revenue jumping 42% to $714 mln, helped by strong global traction for Salomon softgoods and outdoor sneakers. Management noted that Salomon still commands only a small share of the massive global sneaker market despite rapidly improving demand trends. Ball & Racquet Sports was comparatively slower but still healthy, posting 13% revenue growth to $347 mln.
Geographic momentum remained exceptionally strong, led by Asia-Pacific growth of 53% and Greater China growth of 45%, while EMEA accelerated to 27%. The Americas grew a solid 18%, with management particularly encouraged by improving North America trends.
AS raised FY26 revenue growth guidance to +20-22% from +16-18%, a meaningful increase that signals management confidence in sustained demand trends despite a still uncertain global consumer backdrop.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

Amer Sports continues to separate itself from much of the broader athletic apparel group by delivering premium-brand growth that still appears to be in relatively early innings. The contrast with recent weakness from Nike (NKE) is especially notable, as AS is benefiting from strong full-price demand, accelerating DTC penetration, and growing brand heat in outdoor and performance categories. Arc'teryx increasingly looks like one of the strongest premium apparel brands globally, with growth and profitability metrics that compare favorably against larger peers. Meanwhile, Salomon gives AS another potentially outsized long-term growth vector in performance footwear. The key debate now shifts toward valuation and sustainability, as investors will want proof that current growth rates can persist as the business scales. Still, unlike several mature athletic brands facing slowing demand and promotional pressure, AS appears to have substantial whitespace remaining across geographies, categories, and consumer awareness.

Home Depot sees stable consumer engagement, but housing weakness weighs on big-ticket spending (HD)
Home Depot (HD) is trading modestly lower following a largely in-line Q1 earnings report and reaffirmed full-year guidance, as investors weighed resilient execution and market share gains against continued pressure in large discretionary home improvement projects. The home improvement retailer emphasized that elevated mortgage rates and weak housing turnover continue to suppress bigger-ticket renovation demand, though overall consumer engagement and Pro activity remained stable.

Q1 revenue increased 4.8% yr/yr to $41.8 bln, slightly ahead of consensus expectations, while comparable sales rose 0.6% overall and 0.4% in the U.S.
Adjusted EPS of $3.43 beat consensus by $0.02 but declined from $3.56 last year, while reported EPS fell to $3.30 from $3.45 yr/yr.
Management said underlying demand trends remained consistent with FY25, with larger discretionary remodeling projects still under pressure from elevated rates and housing affordability concerns.
Big-ticket transactions above $1,000 increased modestly by 0.8%, while Pro customers continued to outperform DIY customers during the quarter.
Online comparable sales increased more than 10% yr/yr for the fourth consecutive quarter, supported by stronger delivery capabilities and interconnected retail investments.
HD reaffirmed FY26 guidance, continuing to expect total sales growth of 2.5-4.5%, comparable sales ranging from flat to +2%, and adjusted EPS growth of flat to +4%.
The company expects second-half comparable sales improvement to be driven primarily by more normalized storm activity versus unusually weak weather-related comparisons last year.
Executives acknowledged increasing uncertainty from tariffs, fuel costs, and macro volatility, but emphasized confidence in HD’s ability to continue gaining market share.
HD continues expanding its Pro ecosystem through SRS, GMS, and the Mingledorff’s HVAC acquisition, which management believes meaningfully expands its addressable market opportunity.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

HD’s Q1 results reinforced that the company continues executing well despite a difficult housing backdrop and prolonged softness in large discretionary renovation activity. The key positive from the quarter was management’s commentary that demand trends have remained stable rather than deteriorating further, while Pro demand, digital growth, and market share gains continue to support results. However, elevated mortgage rates and sluggish housing turnover remain significant headwinds for larger project activity, which likely contributed to the stock’s muted reaction despite the earnings beat and reaffirmed outlook.

Regeneron Pharma plunges after Phase 3 Melanoma trial misses primary endpoint (REGN)
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) is plunging lower after reporting that its Phase 3 trial evaluating fianlimab in combination with cemiplimab for first-line unresectable or metastatic melanoma failed to achieve statistical significance on the primary endpoint of progression-free survival versus pembrolizumab monotherapy. While the dataset showed encouraging efficacy trends in the high-dose arm, investors viewed the result as a major disappointment given expectations for a potentially important new immuno-oncology growth platform.

The key headline from the study was the primary endpoint miss, as the Phase 3 trial failed to reach statistical significance for improvement in progression-free survival versus pembrolizumab monotherapy, framing the overall readout as mixed rather than clearly positive.
The strongest efficacy signal emerged in the high-dose fianlimab-cemiplimab combination arm, where median progression-free survival reached 11.5 months versus 6.4 months for pembrolizumab, representing a notable 5.1-month numeric improvement.
Importantly, the high-dose arm narrowly missed conventional statistical significance thresholds suggesting meaningful activity but insufficient statistical strength for a clean success.
The lower-dose combination arm delivered weaker results, reinforcing the view that efficacy appeared dose-dependent and more pronounced at higher exposure levels.
The trial enrolled 1,546 patients and utilized a robust multi-arm design that randomized participants across high-dose combination therapy, low-dose combination therapy, pembrolizumab monotherapy, and a cemiplimab monotherapy arm intended to help establish component contribution.
From a safety perspective, REGN reported no new safety signals, an important detail given the historical toxicity concerns often associated with combination checkpoint inhibitor strategies in melanoma treatment.
The company also emphasized that the program still retains a potential development path forward through an ongoing Phase 3 head-to-head study comparing the high-dose fianlimab-cemiplimab regimen against Opdualag, suggesting management does not view the current readout as the end of the franchise opportunity.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

This was clearly a disappointing outcome for REGN because investors were looking for a statistically significant Phase 3 win that could establish fianlimab-cemiplimab as a major new immuno-oncology platform. The most frustrating aspect of the dataset is that the high-dose arm appeared directionally compelling, with a sizable numeric improvement in median progression-free survival and a hazard ratio that came very close to significance. However, in oncology development, "close" generally does not receive the same valuation credit as a definitive positive readout. The sharp sell-off likely reflects concerns that REGN may now face a more complicated regulatory and commercial path in melanoma, particularly against increasingly established competitors like Keytruda and Opdualag. Still, the lack of new safety issues and the ongoing head-to-head Phase 3 study leave open the possibility that the program could retain strategic relevance if future data prove more convincing.

[Return to Sender] All 30 SOX Components Remain Above their 200 Day SMA's: Mon Tues ADI ADI ALAB ...

Return to Sender — 5/19/2026 10:24:28 PM

All 30 SOX Components Remain Above their 200 Day SMA's:

Mon	Tues
ADI	ADI
ALAB	ALAB
AMAT	AMAT
AMD	AMD
ARM	ARM
ASML	ASML
AVGO	AVGO
COHR	COHR
CRDO	CRDO
ENTG	ENTG
GFS	GFS
INTC	INTC
KLAC	KLAC
LRCX	LRCX
MCHP	MCHP
MPWR	MPWR
MRVL	MRVL
MTSI	MTSI
MU	MU
NVDA	NVDA
NVMI	NVMI
NXPI	NXPI
ON	ON
QCOM	QCOM
QRVO	QRVO
RMBS	RMBS
SWKS	SWKS
TER	TER
TSM	TSM
TXN	TXN

[Return to Sender] # Of SOX Components Above their 50 Day SMA Fell 1 to 27 - [NVMI removed} Mon T...

Return to Sender — 5/19/2026 10:22:18 PM

# Of SOX Components Above their 50 Day SMA Fell 1 to 27 - [NVMI removed}

Mon	Tues
ADI	ADI
ALAB	ALAB
AMAT	AMAT
AMD	AMD
ARM	ARM
ASML	ASML
AVGO	AVGO
COHR	COHR
CRDO	CRDO
GFS	GFS
INTC	INTC
KLAC	KLAC
LRCX	LRCX
MCHP	MCHP
MPWR	MPWR
MRVL	MRVL
MTSI	MTSI
MU	MU
NVDA	NVDA
NVMI	NXPI
NXPI	ON
ON	QCOM
QCOM	QRVO
QRVO	RMBS
RMBS	SWKS
SWKS	TSM
TSM	TXN
TXN

[Return to Sender] 5 New 52 Week Highs Today on the NDX and No New 52 Week Lows: New Highs: Mon ...

Return to Sender — 5/19/2026 10:18:59 PM

5 New 52 Week Highs Today on the NDX and No New 52 Week Lows:

New Highs:

Mon	Tues
COST	COST
CRWD	CRWD
CSCO	DDOG
FTNT	FTNT
GOOGL	WMT
PANW

[Return to Sender] BPSOX Fell 4 to 11 PnF Buy Signals - [ADI COHR MTSI NVMI removed] Mon Tues ADI...

Return to Sender — 5/19/2026 10:16:51 PM

BPSOX Fell 4 to 11 PnF Buy Signals - [ADI COHR MTSI NVMI removed]

Mon	Tues
ADI	ALAB
ALAB	ARM
ARM	AVGO
AVGO	MRVL
COHR	NVDA
MRVL	NXPI
MTSI	ON
NVDA	QRVO
NVMI	SWKS
NXPI	TSM
ON	TXN
QRVO
SWKS
TSM
TXN

[Return to Sender] BPNDX Remains 48 PnF Buy Signals - [LITE removed WDAY added] Mon Tues AAPL AAP...

Return to Sender — 5/19/2026 10:13:29 PM

BPNDX Remains 48 PnF Buy Signals - [LITE removed WDAY added]

Mon	Tues
AAPL	AAPL
ADI	ADBE
ADP	ADP
ADSK	ADSK
AEP	AEP
AMZN	AMZN
APP	APP
ARM	ARM
AVGO	AVGO
AXON	AXON
BKR	BKR
CDNS	CDNS
COST	COST
CRWD	CRWD
CSCO	CSCO
CSX	CSX
DDOG	DDOG
DXCM	DXCM
EA	EA
FANG	FANG
FTNT	FTNT
GOOGL	GOOGL
IDXX	IDXX
INTU	INTU
ISRG	ISRG
LITE	MAR
MAR	MDLZ
MDLZ	MELI
MELI	MNST
MNST	MRVL
MRVL	MSFT
MSFT	NVDA
NVDA	NXPI
NXPI	ODFL
ODFL	PANW
PANW	PAYX
PAYX	PYPL
PYPL	ROST
ROST	SBUX
SBUX	SNPS
SNPS	TTWO
TTWO	TXN
TXN	VRTX
VRTX	WBD
WBD	WDAY
WMT	WMT
XEL	XEL
ZS	ZS

[Return to Sender] BPNDX unchanged so far today but BPSOX has fallen 4 to 11 PnF Buy Signals. RtS

Return to Sender — 5/19/2026 10:47:18 AM

[Return to Sender] BPNDX/BPSOX Market Breadth and Momentum Indicators: [graphic]

Return to Sender — 5/18/2026 9:48:55 PM

BPNDX/BPSOX Market Breadth and Momentum Indicators:

[Return to Sender] All 30 SOX Components Remain Above their 200 Day SMA's: Fri Mon ADI ADI ALAB A...

Return to Sender — 5/18/2026 9:34:18 PM

All 30 SOX Components Remain Above their 200 Day SMA's:

Fri	Mon
ADI	ADI
ALAB	ALAB
AMAT	AMAT
AMD	AMD
ARM	ARM
ASML	ASML
AVGO	AVGO
COHR	COHR
CRDO	CRDO
ENTG	ENTG
GFS	GFS
INTC	INTC
KLAC	KLAC
LRCX	LRCX
MCHP	MCHP
MPWR	MPWR
MRVL	MRVL
MTSI	MTSI
MU	MU
NVDA	NVDA
NVMI	NVMI
NXPI	NXPI
ON	ON
QCOM	QCOM
QRVO	QRVO
RMBS	RMBS
SWKS	SWKS
TER	TER
TSM	TSM
TXN	TXN

[Return to Sender] # of SOX Components Above their 50 Day SMA's Fell 2 to 28 Stocks: Fri Mon ADI ...

Return to Sender — 5/18/2026 9:29:43 PM

# of SOX Components Above their 50 Day SMA's Fell 2 to 28 Stocks:

Fri	Mon
ADI	ADI
ALAB	ALAB
AMAT	AMAT
AMD	AMD
ARM	ARM
ASML	ASML
AVGO	AVGO
COHR	COHR
CRDO	CRDO
ENTG	GFS
GFS	INTC
INTC	KLAC
KLAC	LRCX
LRCX	MCHP
MCHP	MPWR
MPWR	MRVL
MRVL	MTSI
MTSI	MU
MU	NVDA
NVDA	NVMI
NVMI	NXPI
NXPI	ON
ON	QCOM
QCOM	QRVO
QRVO	RMBS
RMBS	SWKS
SWKS	TSM
TER	TXN
TSM
TXN

[Return to Sender] 6 New 52 Week Highs on the NDX Today and No New 52 Week Lows: New Highs: Fri ...

Return to Sender — 5/18/2026 9:17:22 PM

6 New 52 Week Highs on the NDX Today and No New 52 Week Lows:

New Highs:

Fri	Mon
AAPL	COST
CRWD	CRWD
DDOG	CSCO
FTNT	FTNT
PANW	GOOGL
	PANW

[Return to Sender] BPSOX Fell 6 to 15 PnF Buy Signals - [AMAT ASML KLAC MPWR MU RMBS removed] Fri...

Return to Sender — 5/18/2026 9:11:36 PM

BPSOX Fell 6 to 15 PnF Buy Signals - [AMAT ASML KLAC MPWR MU RMBS removed]

Fri	Mon
ADI	ADI
ALAB	ALAB
AMAT	ARM
ARM	AVGO
ASML	COHR
AVGO	MRVL
COHR	MTSI
KLAC	NVDA
MPWR	NVMI
MRVL	NXPI
MTSI	ON
MU	QRVO
NVDA	SWKS
NVMI	TSM
NXPI	TXN
ON
QRVO
RMBS
SWKS
TSM
TXN

[Return to Sender] BPNDX Fell 2 to 48 PnF Buy Signals - [AMAT ASML KLAC MPWR MU TSLA WDC removed ID...

Return to Sender — 5/18/2026 8:57:55 PM

BPNDX Fell 2 to 48 PnF Buy Signals - [AMAT ASML KLAC MPWR MU TSLA WDC removed IDXX INTU ISRG LITE PAYX added]

Fri	Mon
AAPL	AAPL
ADI	ADI
ADP	ADP
ADSK	ADSK
AEP	AEP
AMAT	AMZN
AMZN	APP
APP	ARM
ARM	AVGO
ASML	AXON
AVGO	BKR
BKR	CDNS
CDNS	COST
COST	CRWD
CRWD	CSCO
CSCO	CSX
CSX	DDOG
DDOG	DXCM
DXCM	EA
EA	FANG
FANG	FTNT
FTNT	GOOGL
GOOGL	IDXX
KLAC	INTU
MAR	ISRG
MDLZ	LITE
MELI	MAR
MNST	MDLZ
MPWR	MELI
MRVL	MNST
MSFT	MRVL
MU	MSFT
NVDA	NVDA
NXPI	NXPI
ODFL	ODFL
PANW	PANW
PYPL	PAYX
ROST	PYPL
SBUX	ROST
SNPS	SBUX
STX	SNPS
TSLA	TTWO
TTWO	TXN
TXN	VRTX
VRTX	WBD
WBD	WMT
WDC	XEL
WMT	ZS
XEL
ZS

[Return to Sender] Yeah, I think it is a garden variety sell off. I have a ton in treasury funds to...

Return to Sender — 5/18/2026 3:00:38 PM

Yeah, I think it is a garden variety sell off. I have a ton in treasury funds to put back to work when we bottom. Lots more selling before that happens in my humble opinion.

RtS

[Sam] Quite a day, it has been. Actually, quite a two day drop including Friday. Is...

Sam — 5/18/2026 2:57:44 PM

Quite a day, it has been.

Actually, quite a two day drop including Friday.

Is this the Big Fall or just a big correction? I don't know but I just heard an interview with Jenson Huang and Michael Dell on Bloomberg. As far as they are concerned, this is early in a huge buildout that will last a decade or two.

We'll see! I know that my folio has fallen by more than it ever has over two days!

[Return to Sender] I ran a quick check on the BPNDX which is now 47. BPSOX has fallen to 15. RtS

Return to Sender — 5/18/2026 2:53:12 PM

[Sam] NVIDIA’s Rubin AI Platform Alone Will Devour More LPDDR Memory in 2027 Than App...

Sam — 5/17/2026 12:15:06 PM

NVIDIA’s Rubin AI Platform Alone Will Devour More LPDDR Memory in 2027 Than Apple and Samsung Combined, Starving Smartphone Supply
Hassan Mujtaba
May 17, 2026 at 10:15am EDT

wccftech.com

[Sam] Julius used to repost things from seeking alpha and this one seemed to powerful ...

Sam — 5/16/2026 7:29:59 PM

Julius used to repost things from seeking alpha and this one seemed to powerful (albeit speculative to me) to pass up. So I am putting it here for people to read and critique if they wish.

From Noruma (translated from Korean): 2x price target increase

This time, it's really different! Nomura: Embracing the new normal of AI, Samsung and Hynix's valuations should refer to TSMC

05-16 01:05

The wave of AI inference is pushing the memory industry into an unprecedented "super cycle". Nomura believes that KV cache and Agentic AI will drive storage demand to grow thousands of times in the next five years, while supply will only increase by 5 to 6 times, and the long-term supply shortage pattern is basically established. Driven by this, Nomura has sharply raised the target prices of Samsung and SK hynix by more than double, believing that the current forward PE of the two companies is seriously undervalued, and its valuation logic should gradually move closer to TSMC rather than continue to be regarded as traditional cyclical stocks.

AI-driven memory demand is entering a phase of exponential expansion, and supply growth is far from keeping up. Nomura believes that this memory supercycle is completely different from any other time in history - structural supply and demand imbalances, long-term agreements (LTAs) lock in profit visibility, and AI self-reinforcing investment cycles are fundamentally reshaping the valuation logic of the memory industry.

Nomura sharply raised the target prices of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix on May 15, from 340,000 won and 2.34 million won to 590,000 won and 4 million won, respectively, both of which maintained buy ratings, with implied upside of more than 118%.

Nomura believes that the current 12-month forward price-earnings ratio of about 6 times that of the two companies seriously underestimates the sustainability and stability of their earnings, and its risk premium should move closer to TSMC rather than continuing to maintain high discounts in historically cyclical industries.

At the heart of this revaluation logic is that the explosive growth of AI inference workloads is driving the multiplier expansion of KV cache memory demand, and Nomura expects memory demand to increase by thousands of times in the next five years, while the industry supply growth rate is only about 5 to 6 times in the same period. The structural expansion of the supply-demand gap and the strengthening of binding long-term supply agreements mean that the high profitability of memory manufacturers will be unprecedentedly sustainable.

AI inference has exploded, and storage demand has entered exponential expansion
Nomura pointed out that since the release of ChatGPT in December 2022, the memory industry has entered a stage of structural growth. With the shift from training to inference in AI applications, as well as the rapid adoption of retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) and agentic AI, memory demand is experiencing a qualitative leap.

Nomura's core judgment is that the memory requirements of KV cache in AI inference scenarios are product functions of multiple variables such as user size, usage time, task complexity, and inference token consumption. Taking token consumption as an example, a simple Q&A only requires about 30 output tokens, while generating a one-hour video requires about 100 million output tokens. With the rise of agent AI, the consumption of tokens per user is rising exponentially.

Nomura estimates that memory demand may increase thousands of times in the next five years, and the industry's supply growth rate is constrained by the capacity expansion cycle, and it is expected to only achieve about 5 to 6 times growth (compound annual growth rate of about 30%) in the same period. This means that structural supply outstrips demand for a long time and is difficult to radically reverse through software optimization or architectural adjustments.

From the perspective of data center capital expenditure, Nomura expects global data center capital expenditure to grow from $1.16 trillion in 2025 to $6.13 trillion in 2030, of which the proportion of memory in data center capital expenditure will increase from 9% in 2025 to 23% in 2030.

LTA locks in profits, and the logic of "cyclical stocks" is collapsing
Nomura believes that investors' traditional concerns about the memory industry, whether long-term agreements (LTAs) can truly distinguish themselves from historically failed LTA structures, are being shattered by reality.

The current LTA structure is significantly different from what it used to be: minimum contract terms of 3 to 5 years, prepayment arrangements, and capital expenditure support commitments, making it much more difficult to cancel contracts. More importantly, Nomura believes that customer demand for HBM and high-performance memory has exceeded the industry's long-term supply capacity, which means that the stable profit prospects of memory manufacturers are increasingly dependent on LTA itself, but are supported by a structural demand environment that exceeds supply.

Based on this, Nomura expects Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to achieve annual revenue and profit growth of about 30% over the next 3 to 5 years, with profits jumping 7 to 8 times in 2026. This growth trajectory is highly similar to TSMC's compound annual growth rate of about 30% from 2025 to 2028, while TSMC's current 12-month forward price-earnings ratio is about 20 times.

Nomura made it clear that the risk premium implied by Samsung and Hynix's current forward price-earnings ratio of about 6 times (about 19% for Samsung and 24% for Hynix) is much higher than TSMC's level of about 6%, and this gap is no longer reasonable. As market confidence grows and South Korea may be included in the MSCI Developed Markets Index in June 2026, Nomura expects the discount between the two companies to gradually narrow.

Samsung: The target price was significantly raised to 590,000 won, an implied increase of 118%
Nomura raised Samsung Electronics' target price from 340,000 won to 590,000 won, and the valuation method increased from the previous 3.0 times price-to-book ratio to 5.0 times, corresponding to 117,669 won in net assets per share for 12 months. The target discount rate was lowered from 17% to 10%, but it is still well above TSMC's level of about 6%.

In terms of profit forecasts, Nomura expects Samsung's operating profit from 2026 to 2028 to be 307 trillion won, 432 trillion won and 511 trillion won, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 604%, 41% and 18% respectively. Among them, the memory business is the core driving force, and the operating profit margin of DRAM and NAND is expected to remain at around 71% and 63%, respectively. HBM profitability is expected to gradually move closer to the bulk DRAM level in 2027.

Nomura also pointed out that the profitability improvement of Samsung's foundry business will be constrained: more than 30% of its revenue in 2026 will be used to pay bonuses, and the operating costs of US fabs will be about 50% higher than those in South Korea, and fixed cost pressures will continue.

In terms of shareholder returns, Nomura expects Samsung to return shareholders through 50% of free cash flow, with free cash flow yields of 13% and 20% respectively from 2026 to 2027.

Hynix: The target price was raised to 4 million won, and the premium of pure storage attributes was highlighted
Nomura raised SK hynix's target price from 2.34 million won to 4 million won, and the target price-to-book ratio increased from 3.5 times to 6.0 times, corresponding to 12-month forward net assets of 673,248 won per share, with an implied upside of about 120%.

Nomura expects hynix's operating profit from 2026 to 2028 to be 281 trillion won, 394 trillion won and 480 trillion won, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 496%, 40% and 22% respectively. Hynix's ROE is significantly higher than Samsung's, and is expected to reach 100%, 73% and 54% from 2026 to 2028, mainly due to its high financial leverage and pure memory business attributes.

In the HBM field, Nomura expects Hynix HBM's ASP to gradually increase from about $12.9/GB in 2026 to about $20.9/GB in 2027, and HBM's operating profit margin will increase from 63% in 2026 to 72% in 2027, converging towards the level of bulk DRAM.

Nomura also pointed out that with Hynix's cash balance expected to reach about 100 trillion won in the first half of 2026, the company may broaden its investor base through aggressive shareholder return policies and ADR listings in the United States.

[Return to Sender] Market Snapshot Dow 49526.17 -537.29 (-1.07%) Nasdaq 26225.14 -410.08 (-1.54%)...

Return to Sender — 5/15/2026 11:18:20 PM

Market Snapshot

Dow	49526.17	-537.29	(-1.07%)
Nasdaq	26225.14	-410.08	(-1.54%)
SP 500	7408.50	-92.74	(-1.24%)
10-yr Note

NYSE	Adv 614	Dec 2142	Vol 1.44 bln
Nasdaq	Adv 1133	Dec 3673	Vol 9.67 bln

Industry Watch

Strong: Energy

Weak: Information Technology, Materials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Real Estate, Communication Services, Utilities, Health Care

Moving the Market

--Stocks pulling back from record highs in broad fashion, major averages cede nearly all of this week's strength

--Particular weakness across tech and mega-cap names

--Oil prices moving higher amid fears conflict could resume, Trump-Xi summit produces little in the way of new developments

Stocks pull back from record highs amid inflation concerns
15-May-26 16:35 ET

Dow -537.29 at 49526.17, Nasdaq -410.08 at 26225.14, S&P -92.74 at 7408.50
[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks ended a record-setting week on a lower note, with the S&P 500 (-1.2%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.5%), and DJIA (-1.1%) retreating from recent record highs amid a surge in oil prices and Treasury yields.

Crude oil futures settled today's session $4.33 higher (+4.3%) at $105.49 per barrel amid fears that the U.S. could re-engage in military operations against Iran after the summit between President Trump and President Xi failed to produce any meaningful policy changes.

The lack of surprises from the summit also included no mention of NVIDIA (NVDA 225.32, -10.42, -4.42%) H200 chip sales to China, while China's pledge to purchase 200 Boeing (BA 220.49, -8.72, -3.80%) jets was largely in line with expectations.

More important than any individual stock move, though, was the upward pressure on Treasuries that sent yields to fresh highs for the year amid renewed inflation concerns tied to the rise in oil prices. The 2-year note yield settled up nine basis points to 4.08%, while the 10-year note yield settled up 13 basis points to 4.60%.

Higher interest rates reduce the present value of future cash flows, and the market has clearly been placing a significant premium on the long-term earnings potential tied to the AI buildout.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 4.0% lower today, ending the week with a loss after several choppy sessions. Corning (GLW 191.92, -16.36, -7.85%) and Micron (MU 724.66, -51.35, -6.62%) were among the worst-performing components of the information technology sector (-1.6%).

However, the sector was supported somewhat by relative strength in software stocks, with the iShares GS Software ETF finishing 1.3% higher. Microsoft (MSFT 421.92, +12.49, +3.05%) was a "Magnificent Seven" standout after CNBC reported that Pershing Square has built a position in the company.

Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA 422.04, -21.26, -4.79%) was a notable laggard, which pressured the consumer discretionary sector (-1.8%).

The sector also faced weakness across its homebuilder components due to rising interest rates, which weighed on building products names in the industrials sector (-1.8%) as well.

The rate-sensitive utilities (-2.4%) and real estate (-1.6%) sectors also underperformed, while the materials sector (-2.7%) finished with the widest loss amid broad weakness in metals and mining names.

Only the energy sector (+2.3%) managed to finish higher amid the surge in oil prices today.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-2.4%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.7%) underperformed amid the broad risk-off tone and renewed pressure on economically-sensitive and rate-sensitive stocks.

Overall, today's session was a reminder that the macro backdrop remains a meaningful headwind for equities even after a strong AI-fueled earnings season helped drive the market to repeated record highs in recent weeks. The market entered the year expecting roughly two Fed rate cuts in 2026, but persistent inflation pressures and the recent surge in oil prices have now shifted expectations toward the possibility of a rate hike next January. The question now is whether investors will once again step in to buy today's weakness across tech and semiconductor stocks, or if rising yields and inflation concerns begin to weigh more meaningfully on the market's momentum.

Nasdaq Composite: +12.8% YTD
Russell 2000: +12.6% YTD
S&P Mid Cap 400: +9.2% YTD
S&P 500: +8.2% YTD
DJIA: +3.0% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

May Empire State Manufacturing 19.6 (Briefing.com consensus 6.2); Prior 11.0
April Industrial Production 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to -0.3% from -0.5%, April Capacity Utilization 76.1% (Briefing.com consensus 75.7%); Prior 75.7%
- The key takeaway from the report is that it was underpinned by solid manufacturing output that was led by the production of durables. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output was up 0.3% month-over-month.

Major averages poised to end week on a lower note
15-May-26 15:35 ET

Dow -472.49 at 49590.97, Nasdaq -376.49 at 26258.73, S&P -76.43 at 7424.81
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain firmly lower as the market enters the final half hour of the session.

Looking ahead, Baidu (BIDU 135.64, -7.65, -5.34%) trades lower ahead of its earnings release Monday morning as investors position cautiously around continued weakness in Baidu Core's online marketing business, which has struggled amid ongoing pressure in the core advertising market.

Looking even further ahead, Reuters reports that SpaceX is targeting June 11 for its IPO, and will be under the Nasdaq.

Major averages remain firmly lower amid quiet afternoon
15-May-26 15:00 ET

Dow -471.59 at 49591.87, Nasdaq -279.33 at 26355.89, S&P -67.21 at 7434.03
[BRIEFING.COM] It has been a slow trudge through negative territory for stocks this afternoon, with the S&P 500 (-0.9%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.0%), and DJIA (-0.9%) little changed from their midday levels.

Crude oil futures settled today's session $4.33 higher (+4.3%) at $105.49 per barrel, which keeps the energy sector (+1.9%) firmly higher, while the other ten S&P 500 sectors trade lower.

Headlines are relatively muted this afternoon, and the major averages are currently mixed on a week-to-date basis.

S&P 500 Slips ~0.8% as Charter, Corning, Albemarle Weigh; ServiceNow Rises on AI Deal News
15-May-26 14:30 ET

Dow -447.67 at 49615.79, Nasdaq -254.32 at 26380.90, S&P -61.04 at 7440.20
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.81%) down about 61 points this afternoon, hosting the shallowest declines among the major averages on an overall down session.

Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Charter Comm (CHTR 138.49, -9.51, -6.43%), Corning (GLW 195.88, -12.40, -5.95%), and Albemarle (ALB 181.22, -9.88, -5.17%) dot the bottom of the average. CHTR continues recent weakness, now down more than -42% over the last three weeks.

Meanwhile, ServiceNow (NOW 95.90, +5.40, +5.97%) is near the top of the standings owing in part to news that the company partnered with Experian (EXPGY 34.67, +0.41, +1.21%) to scale agentic AI.

Gold slips on stronger dollar and higher yields after hot inflation data and Trump–Xi summit
15-May-26 14:00 ET

Dow -438.41 at 49625.05, Nasdaq -220.47 at 26414.75, S&P -55.43 at 7445.81
[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.83%) is in last place on Friday afternoon, down 220 points.

Gold futures settled $21.40 lower (-0.5%) at $4,685.30/oz, down about -3.6% on the week, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields after hotter inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. The decline also reflected reduced safe-haven demand as investors trimmed defensive positions following the Trump/Xi summit and shifted focus back toward inflation and rate concerns.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up about +0.4% to $99.24.

The Big Picture

Last Updated: 15-May-26 15:29 ET | Archive
Treasury market fires warning shot across stock market's bow
Briefing.com Summary:

*Rising Treasury yields increasingly threaten stock valuations by reducing future cash-flow values and offering attractive risk-free alternatives.

*Markets no longer expect Fed rate cuts; futures now imply growing odds of another rate hike by early 2027.

*Bond markets signal inflation concerns and slower growth ahead, contradicting stock investors’ optimism surrounding AI-driven economic strength.

Stock prices (some, not all) have been rising along with interest rates. It hasn't mattered much to some stock market participants (not all) that interest rates have been rising, but it is getting harder to ignore.

The 2-yr note yield is at 4.08%, yet the target range for the fed funds rate is just 3.50-3.75%; the 10-yr note yield is at 4.60%; and the 30-yr bond yield is at 5.13%.

With the AI boom unfolding, one might interpret the jump in interest rates as an expression of strong economic growth. On the other hand, with the recent surge in inflation, one might interpret the jump in rates as an expression of inflation concerns that could ultimately give way to demand destruction and slower growth.

The latter isn't readily apparent yet, but the Treasury market, as opposed to the stock market, is attuned to the inflation concern. Accordingly, the stock market should start tuning into that.

Higher Equals Lower

Higher interest rates lower the present value of future cash flows, and there is no question that the stock market has been assigning a lot of value to the future cash flows for many companies tethered to the AI buildout.

There is a valuation headwind forming, then, for the stock market. Beyond that, higher interest rates—and specifically higher Treasury yields—pose a competitive threat for stocks. Treasuries are essentially risk-free, whereas stocks are far from it.

A 2-yr note yield north of 4.00%, or even a 1-year T-bill yield of 3.80%, stacks up nicely relative to the 1.34% dividend yield for the S&P 500. The counterargument is that stocks still offer a better return opportunity in a rising inflation environment that enables companies to raise prices and to protect profit margins.

To wit: the 1-yr T-bill rate of 3.80% looks pretty good as a return metric, but adjusted for inflation (CPI), the real yield is 0.00%. Nothing, however, can be a whole lot of something if stocks slide into a correction, so the choice one has to make revolves around capital preservation versus the pursuit of total return. That decision is ultimately informed by an individual's risk tolerance.

All else equal, lower interest rates are better for the stock market than higher interest rates, but higher rates don't have to be a death knell for the stock market if they are rising for good reasons, namely strengthening economic growth that bodes well for earnings prospects.

The Treasury market, however, isn't seeing things in that light. If it were, the yield curve would be steepening, with long-term rates rising faster than short-term rates. What is unfolding now is a flattening of the yield curve, with short-term rates rising faster than long-term rates.

That connotes concerns about inflation and the possible need for the Fed to raise rates to tamp it down, which would then slow economic growth. That perspective is being corroborated in the fed funds futures market and in rising breakeven inflation rates.

When the year began, the market expected two rate cuts before the end of 2026. That expectation has been wiped away and has been replaced by a belief that the next move by the Fed is more likely to be a rate hike. Currently, there is a 58.9% probability of at least a 25-basis-point hike at the January 2027 FOMC meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the five-year breakeven inflation rate has climbed from 2.26% at the end of 2025 to 2.70% today.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight

Kevin Warsh is walking into the Fed chair position amid a fine mess of expectations, and his pre-confirmation view that there is scope to cut rates is looking less polished now with CPI inflation up 3.8% year-over-year, PCE inflation up 3.5%, and PPI inflation up 6.0%.

The stock market continues to operate largely with the view that those inflation prints are transitory, which is partly why it managed to set new record highs as they were released. The Treasury market is less convinced, or certainly more leery, about that idea given the broad-based advance in wholesaler services inflation seen in the April PPI report and the stark 0.6% increase in the shelter index seen in the April CPI report.

These inflation pressures, though, aren't just local. They are global, and they have contributed to Japan's 30-yr bond hitting 4.00% for the first time since 1999 and the UK's 30-yr gilt rising to its highest level in 28 years.

The higher rates abroad present a risk here, as they might have more appeal than years past for foreign buyers to keep their capital at home. If they do, that could sap some of the demand that has in the past helped keep Treasury yields under wraps.

Altogether, higher rates here and abroad are more about inflation and fiscal concerns than they are about a confident growth outlook. Those higher rates will weigh on loan demand, add to financing costs, and presumably create a barrier for multiple expansion.

Then again, momentum can be a powerful driver of stocks for a market running with AI blinders on. If rates keep rising, though, the stock market will be forced to see the light of a fundamental challenge that it hasn't accounted for during this monstrous rally, as higher rates in this context are a precursor to slower growth, not faster growth.

-- Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

Applied Materials Pulls Back Despite Strong Q2 and Bullish AI-Driven Outlook (AMAT)

Applied Materials (AMAT) is trading modestly lower despite reporting strong Q2 (Apr) results last night. The company continued its long streak of EPS upside, while revenue increased 11.4% yr/yr to $7.91 bln, nicely above expectations. Guidance was also particularly strong, with Q3 EPS of $3.16-3.56 and revenue of $8.45-9.45 bln coming in well above expectations. AMAT also raised its CY26 growth outlook for its semiconductor equipment business to more than 30% from more than 20%.

AI compute infrastructure buildout and increasing AI workload complexity continue to fuel demand. Last quarter, AMAT said cleanroom space would pace the rate of industry investment, but customers are now finding ways to reallocate or create space, driving incremental equipment requests for 2026 and supporting the raised CY26 outlook.
This unprecedented demand environment is also creating significant visibility, with AMAT's largest customers providing rolling eight-quarter forecasts to help prepare capacity and service resources for upcoming ramps. Leading indicators have also strengthened, including higher cloud service provider capex and most leading-edge logic and DRAM fabs running at full capacity.
Results were fueled by the market shifting toward AMAT's leadership areas, including leading-edge foundry/logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging. Semiconductor Systems delivered record revenue of $5.97 bln, above guidance, driven by record foundry revenue, DRAM revenue growth of 18% yr/yr to $1.7 bln, and accelerating advanced packaging demand.
Non-GAAP gross margin expanded 80 bps yr/yr to 50.0%, its highest level in more than 25 years, driven by value-based pricing on differentiated products and manufacturing cost improvements. Operating margin also expanded 140 bps yr/yr to 32.1%.
AMAT also noted that agentic AI is offering another tailwind for wafer fab equipment demand, as these models are more CPU-intensive and increase demand for DRAM and NAND.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight

This was a strong quarter for AMAT. Results exceeded expectations, and management also spoke more favorably about long-term demand, customer visibility, and sustained growth into 2027 and beyond. The spending mix is shifting toward AMAT's areas of strength, including leading-edge foundry/logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging, which management expects to account for more than 80% of year-over-year wafer fab equipment spending growth in 2026, with a similar profile in 2027. What stood out most was the outlook, particularly the increased customer visibility, stronger leading indicators, continued demand across AI-enabling chips, and the emergence of agentic AI as another tailwind. AMAT is also executing well, with gross margin reaching its highest level in more than 25 years and expected to remain above 50% in Q3. Overall, the record results and stronger outlook reinforce AMAT as a major beneficiary of AI-driven semiconductor equipment demand. The modestly lower reaction does not appear to reflect fundamentals, but rather the stock's strong run into the report and a broader pullback in AI/semi names as investors digest the recent surge.

Gemini Space Station jumps as credit card growth, Winklevoss Capital investment fuels rally (GEMI)
Gemini Space Station (GEMI) is launching sharply higher following its Q1 earnings report, which featured better-than-expected revenue and EPS, accelerating momentum in prediction markets, and a new $100 million strategic investment from Winklevoss Capital paid entirely in bitcoin. Investors are responding positively because the quarter showed meaningful diversification beyond crypto trading, improving operational discipline following restructuring efforts, and growing traction in newer businesses like prediction markets and credit cards.

Q1 revenue rose 38.3% yr/yr to $48.6 mln, ahead of the $47.9 mln consensus, while the adjusted loss of ($0.93) per share beat estimates by $0.10. Transaction revenue remained flat yr/yr at $24.1 mln.
Services revenue and interest income surged 122% yr/yr to $24.5 mln, representing nearly half of total revenue and helping offset weaker exchange trading activity.
Credit card revenue jumped nearly 300% yr/yr to $14.7 mln, while total card accounts grew to 154,000 and card MTUs climbed more than 320% yr/yr.
Prediction markets gained strong momentum. Gemini Predictions surpassed 100 mln contracts traded across more than 20,000 traders since launching in December 2025, while April volume rose 78% month-over-month.
Core exchange trends remained pressured. Exchange revenue fell 27% yr/yr to $17.2 mln as total spot trading volume dropped 53% to $6.3 bln, although OTC revenue surged to $6.3 mln from $0.1 mln last year.
Operating expenses increased 73% yr/yr to $144.5 mln, impacted by stock-based compensation and restructuring charges tied to workforce reductions and international market exits.
GEMI also secured a DCO license from the CFTC and announced a $100 mln Winklevoss Capital investment, strengthening liquidity and advancing its regulated markets strategy.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

The biggest takeaway from the quarter is that GEMI is evolving beyond a pure crypto trading platform into a more diversified financial markets company. Strong growth in credit cards, custody, interest income, and prediction markets is helping reduce reliance on volatile exchange volumes. Prediction markets appear especially promising given the rapid user adoption shortly after launch. The main challenge remains profitability, as trading volumes are still soft and operating expenses remain elevated despite restructuring efforts. Even so, investors appear encouraged by the company's improving revenue mix, regulatory positioning, and strengthened balance sheet following the Winklevoss Capital investment.

Boot Barn Kicks Higher as Store Expansion and Western Wear Demand Fuel Q4 Beat (BOOT)

Boot Barn (BOOT) is trading modestly higher after wrapping up FY26 on a strong note. The company reported solid upside for Q4 (Mar) with mixed guidance for Q1 (Jun), featuring upside revenue guidance but downside EPS guidance. As the largest retail chain devoted to western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories, BOOT remains closely tied to consumer confidence trends. Its products, including boots, denim, hats, and western apparel, are generally higher-ticket purchases.

Q4 revenue increased 18.7% yr/yr to $538.8 mln, ahead of analyst expectations, driven by strong same-store sales growth and accelerated store openings.
Consolidated same-store sales increased +6.1%, slightly above the +5.7% growth posted in Q3 (Dec).
Men's western boots posted mid-single-digit growth, while ladies' western boots increased low single digits during Q4. Men's and ladies' apparel delivered double-digit growth, led by low-teens denim growth.
The durability of BOOT's merchandising strategy remains notable, with most top-selling styles having been in assortment for more than five years.
BOOT also benefited from western lifestyle momentum, serving for the first time as the official boot retailer for Stagecoach, the world's largest country music festival.
Looking ahead to Q1 (Jun), quarter-to-date comps are running at a solid +5%, despite lapping high single-digit growth in the prior-year period.
BOOT opened 25 new stores during Q4, above its original plan of 15 openings, bringing total store count to 539 locations. The company now plans to open 70 new stores in FY27, down modestly from 80 due to the accelerated Q4 openings. New stores remain a major growth driver as management has a long term target of 1,200 stores across the US, highlighting significant white-space expansion potential.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

Boot Barn continues to execute well on one of the more compelling specialty retail growth stories in the market. The company is benefiting from strong brand positioning within western and workwear categories, healthy same-store sales momentum, and a highly productive new-store expansion strategy. The accelerated pace of openings in Q4 reinforces management's confidence in long-term demand trends and white-space opportunities. At the same time, the softer-than-expected Q1 EPS guidance highlights the near-term margin pressure associated with aggressive expansion efforts. Investors will likely remain constructive on BOOT as long as same-store sales trends remain healthy and new stores continue generating attractive returns, although the stock's premium valuation leaves less room for execution missteps if consumer spending conditions weaken.

Figma surges as beat-and-raise quarter highlights accelerating growth, strong AI monetization (FIG)

Figma (FIG) investors are aggressively bidding the stock higher after the company's Q1 report delivered a clean beat-and-raise quarter with broad-based strength across revenue, profitability, retention, enterprise expansion, and AI monetization. The rally is being driven by accelerating growth, sharply better-than-expected guidance, and increasing confidence that FIG's AI products are becoming a real revenue contributor rather than just a usage driver.

Revenue growth accelerated again and easily beat expectations. Q1 revenue rose 46% yr/yr to $333.4 mln, topping the $316.0 mln FactSet consensus, with management noting this marked the second consecutive quarter of accelerating growth.
Earnings also came in well ahead of expectations. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.10 versus the $0.06 consensus, representing a $0.04 beat and reinforcing that FIG is sustaining rapid growth while maintaining operating discipline.
Retention and enterprise expansion metrics were especially strong. Net dollar retention reached 139% as of March 31, up three percentage points sequentially and the highest level in more than two years, while paid customers contributing over $100,000 in ARR increased 48% yr/yr to 1,525.
The broader customer base continues scaling rapidly. Total paid customers rose 54% yr/yr to roughly 690,000, while new Pro team conversions grew more than 150% yr/yr, suggesting the company's AI features are successfully converting engagement into paid adoption.
AI monetization is emerging as a meaningful growth driver. FIG said more than 75% of high-volume Org and Enterprise users that exceeded credit limits chose to continue purchasing paid credits, while over 60% of large enterprise accounts used Figma Make weekly. MCP weekly active users also quintupled quarter over quarter.
Guidance was the biggest catalyst for the stock reaction. For Q2, FIG guided revenue to $348-$350 mln versus the $329.5 mln consensus, and for FY26 guided revenue to $1.422-$1.428 bln versus the $1.37 bln consensus, signaling confidence that momentum is continuing into the balance of the year.
Profitability guidance also improved. Management raised its FY26 non-GAAP operating income outlook to $125-$135 mln, implying a roughly 9% operating margin at the midpoint, although the company noted Q2 margins will absorb seasonal costs tied to Config, its annual user conference.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight

This was a standout quarter because strength was broad-based rather than tied to one metric. Revenue accelerated, EPS beat comfortably, retention improved, enterprise customers expanded rapidly, and AI monetization showed early signs of durability. The raised FY26 guidance also suggests management sees momentum continuing beyond a single quarter. The key takeaway is that AI appears to be enhancing engagement while creating incremental revenue opportunities, which strengthens the long-term growth narrative. The main risk remains gross margin pressure from AI infrastructure costs, as management acknowledged compute spending is still evolving. Even so, investors are rewarding the results because FIG is proving it can monetize AI without disrupting its core business, while simultaneously sustaining accelerating top-line growth and improving enterprise adoption.

Doximity tumbles as FY27 guide misses the mark and AI costs pressure margins (DOCS)
Doximity (DOCS) investors are selling first and asking questions later after the company’s Q4 report and cautious FY27 outlook. The stock is plunging because the quarter showed solid engagement and cash generation, but revenue growth is slowing, margins are under pressure from AI compute, and management guided below consensus for both Q1 and the full year.

Revenue growth remained positive but clearly decelerated. Q4 revenue rose 5.1% yr/yr to $145.4 mln, which was roughly in line with FactSet consensus, but that followed much faster full-year growth of 13% and came with management flagging a softer HCP digital pharma ad market and limited visibility.
Adjusted EPS beat expectations, with Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.38 versus the $0.28 consensus, or a $0.10 beat. That is a good headline number, but it is getting overshadowed by the weaker forward setup.
Adjusted EBITDA and margin direction were mixed. Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $65.8 mln, down from $69.7 million a year ago, and the adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 45.3% from 50.4%, pressured mainly by rising AI compute costs. Non-GAAP gross margin also slipped to 89% from 91%, reinforcing that AI monetization is still early while infrastructure costs are already showing up.
Free cash flow was a bright spot. Doximity generated a record $107 million in Q4 free cash flow and $317 million for the full fiscal year, with full-year free cash flow equal to 49% of revenue.
User engagement stayed strong and continues to be the main bull case. The platform reached a record 800,000 unique quarterly active prescribers, up roughly 30% year over year, and nearly half used the company’s AI tools in the quarter.
Customer metrics were also healthy, though not strong enough to offset the guidance concerns. TTM net revenue retention was 109%, while the top 20 customers posted 114% NRR, and customers contributing at least $500,000 in annual subscription revenue rose to 125 from 118 a year ago.
Guidance is the main problem. For Q1 FY27, DOCS guided revenue to $151-$152 mln versus the $153.79 mln consensus, and for FY27 it guided revenue to $664-$676 mln versus the $697.44 mln consensus, implying only about 4% growth at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $68.5-$69.5 mln for Q1 and $323-$335 mln for FY27 suggests margins around the high-40% range, but not enough to offset the slower growth profile.

[Return to Sender] BPNDX/BPSOX Market Breadth and Momentum Indicators: [graphic]

Return to Sender — 5/15/2026 11:13:54 PM

BPNDX/BPSOX Market Breadth and Momentum Indicators:

[Return to Sender] All 30 SOX Components Remain Above their 50 and 200 Day SMA's. Not sure this is ...

Return to Sender — 5/15/2026 10:57:33 PM

All 30 SOX Components Remain Above their 50 and 200 Day SMA's. Not sure this is worth following but I will continue for a while longer.

RtS

[Return to Sender] 2 New 52 Week Lows on the NDX Today: New Lows: Mon Tues Wed Thur Fri CHTR CHT...

Return to Sender — 5/15/2026 10:55:50 PM

2 New 52 Week Lows on the NDX Today:

New Lows:

Mon	Tues	Wed	Thur	Fri
CHTR	CHTR	CHTR	CSGP	CHTR
CSGP	CTSH	CSGP	SHOP	PDD
CTAS		CTAS	VRSK
CTSH		CTSH
ISRG		MELI
MELI		ROP
		VRSK

[Return to Sender] 5 New 52 Week Highs on the NDX Today: Mon Tues Wed Thur Fri AAPL AAPL AAPL ASM...

Return to Sender — 5/15/2026 10:49:55 PM

5 New 52 Week Highs on the NDX Today:

Mon	Tues	Wed	Thur	Fri
AAPL	AAPL	AAPL	ASML	AAPL
ADI	CSCO	ADI	AVGO	CRWD
AMAT	FTNT	ASML	CRWD	DDOG
AMD	NVDA	CRWD	CSCO	FTNT
ASML		CSCO	FTNT	PANW
CSCO		DDOG	LRCX
FTNT		FTNT	MRVL
GOOGL		GOOGL	NVDA
INTC		MPWR	PANW
MCHP		MRVL	SBUX
MNST		NVDA	TXN
MU		PANW
NVDA		SBUX
QCOM		TXN
SNDK
STX

[Return to Sender] BPSOX Fell 2 to 21 PnF Buy Signals - [AMD MCHP removed] Mon Tues Wed Thur Fri ...

Return to Sender — 5/15/2026 10:42:41 PM

BPSOX Fell 2 to 21 PnF Buy Signals - [AMD MCHP removed]

Mon	Tues	Wed	Thur	Fri
ADI	ADI	ADI	ADI	ADI
ALAB	ALAB	ALAB	ALAB	ALAB
AMAT	AMAT	AMAT	AMAT	AMAT
AMD	AMD	AMD	AMD	ARM
ARM	ARM	ARM	ARM	ASML
ASML	ASML	ASML	ASML	AVGO
AVGO	AVGO	AVGO	AVGO	COHR
COHR	COHR	COHR	COHR	KLAC
CRDO	CRDO	CRDO	KLAC	MPWR
ENTG	INTC	INTC	MCHP	MRVL
GFS	KLAC	KLAC	MPWR	MTSI
INTC	MCHP	MCHP	MRVL	MU
KLAC	MTSI	MPWR	MTSI	NVDA
LRCX	MU	MRVL	MU	NVMI
MCHP	NVDA	MTSI	NVDA	NXPI
MPWR	NXPI	MU	NVMI	ON
MRVL	ON	NVDA	NXPI	QRVO
MTSI	QCOM	NXPI	ON	RMBS
MU	QRVO	ON	QRVO	SWKS
NVDA	SWKS	QCOM	RMBS	TSM
NVMI	TSM	QRVO	SWKS	TXN
NXPI	TXN	RMBS	TSM
ON		SWKS	TXN
QCOM		TSM
QRVO		TXN
RMBS
SWKS
TER
TSM
TXN

[Return to Sender] BPNDX Fell 2 to 50 PnF Buy Signals - [AMD MCHP MSTR REGN SNDK removed DXCM MSFT ...

Return to Sender — 5/15/2026 10:33:40 PM

BPNDX Fell 2 to 50 PnF Buy Signals - [AMD MCHP MSTR REGN SNDK removed DXCM MSFT ODFL added]

Mon	Tues	Wed	Thur	Fri
AAPL	AAPL	AAPL	AAPL	AAPL
ABNB	ABNB	ADI	ADI	ADI
ADI	ADI	ADP	ADP	ADP
ADP	ADP	ADSK	ADSK	ADSK
ADSK	ADSK	AEP	AEP	AEP
AEP	AEP	AMAT	AMAT	AMAT
AMAT	AMAT	AMD	AMD	AMZN
AMD	AMD	AMZN	AMZN	APP
AMZN	AMZN	APP	APP	ARM
APP	APP	ARM	ARM	ASML
ARM	ARM	ASML	ASML	AVGO
ASML	ASML	AVGO	AVGO	BKR
AVGO	AVGO	BKR	BKR	CDNS
AXON	AXON	CDNS	CDNS	COST
BKR	BKR	COST	COST	CRWD
CDNS	CDNS	CRWD	CRWD	CSCO
COST	COST	CSCO	CSCO	CSX
CRWD	CRWD	CSX	CSX	DDOG
CSCO	CSCO	DDOG	DDOG	DXCM
CSX	CSX	EA	EA	EA
DDOG	DDOG	FTNT	FANG	FANG
EA	EA	GOOGL	FTNT	FTNT
FTNT	FTNT	INTC	GOOGL	GOOGL
GOOGL	GOOGL	KLAC	KLAC	KLAC
INTC	INTC	MAR	MAR	MAR
INTU	INTU	MCHP	MCHP	MDLZ
KLAC	KLAC	MDLZ	MDLZ	MELI
LRCX	MAR	MNST	MELI	MNST
MAR	MCHP	MPWR	MNST	MPWR
MCHP	MDLZ	MRVL	MPWR	MRVL
MDLZ	MNST	MSTR	MRVL	MSFT
META	MSFT	MU	MSTR	MU
MNST	MSTR	NVDA	MU	NVDA
MPWR	MU	NXPI	NVDA	NXPI
MRVL	NVDA	PANW	NXPI	ODFL
MSFT	NXPI	PYPL	PANW	PANW
MSTR	ORLY	QCOM	PYPL	PYPL
MU	PANW	REGN	REGN	ROST
NVDA	PAYX	ROST	ROST	SBUX
NXPI	PYPL	SBUX	SBUX	SNPS
ODFL	QCOM	SNDK	SNDK	STX
ORLY	ROST	SNPS	SNPS	TSLA
PANW	SBUX	STX	STX	TTWO
PAYX	SNDK	TMUS	TSLA	TXN
PDD	SNPS	TSLA	TTWO	VRTX
PYPL	STX	TTWO	TXN	WBD
QCOM	TMUS	TXN	VRTX	WDC
ROST	TSLA	VRTX	WBD	WMT
SBUX	TTWO	WBD	WDC	XEL
SNDK	TXN	WDC	WMT	ZS
SNPS	VRTX	WMT	XEL
STX	WBD	XEL	ZS
TMUS	WDC
TSLA	WMT
TTWO	XEL
TXN	ZS
WBD
WDAY
WDC
WMT
XEL
ZS

[Elroy] Here's SIMO's comments on memory from their recent conference call Now let ...

Elroy — 5/15/2026 10:49:48 AM

Here's SIMO's comments on memory from their recent conference call

Now let me first address the current market environment. The memory and storage market continue to create significant challenges across the market in which we operate. NAND prices continue to rise sharply with a sequential increase of about 55% to 60% in the first quarter of 2026. AI adoption has driven significant demand across all memory and storage technologies, including HBM, DRAM, NAND and HDD. Growing demand from hyperscalers and cloud service providers for AI infrastructure deployment, combined with the low NAND bit growth and insufficient DRAM capacity led to significant scarcity, negatively impacting many markets include smartphone and PC, particularly in the low end. Despite these challenges, we executed well in the first quarter with our backlog design win and new opportunity ramping throughout the year, we are confident in our ability to deliver solid growth.

We have spent many years developing deep relationship with the NAND flash makers, which have allowed us to gain share as NAND makers outsource more of their controller requirement. These strong relationships have also allowed us to secure NAND in the difficult environment as we ramp our Ferri and enterprise boot drive business and help our module maker and AI smart storage system customers secure NAND, making us an even more valuable and strategic partner. While we expect the NAND shortage will remain challenging throughout 2026 and '27, we have never been better positioned. We have and will continue to benefit from the fundamental shift by the NAND maker towards higher-end and high-capacity enterprise and data center solutions, driving a greater reliance on Silicon Motion to serve the consumer market and opening a new opportunity in automotive and lower density storage solution.

[Sam] h/t BR Memory crunch deepens chasm between stock winners and losers Memory...

Sam — 5/15/2026 10:42:49 AM

h/t BR

Memory crunch deepens chasm between stock winners and losers

Memory crunch deepens chasm between stock winners and losers
Story by Winnie Hsu May 12

(Bloomberg) -- The worsening shortage in global memory chips due to the artificial intelligence buildout is driving a widening gulf in corporate results and stock performances.

Shares of memory makers Micron Technology Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. have surged to record highs on blockbuster results driven by buoyant product prices. Meanwhile, consumer products makers from HP Inc. to Nintendo Co. have been weighed down by profit pressures stemming from higher chip costs.

The squeeze shows how AI is reshaping the chip cycle, turning memory from a commodity input into a critical bottleneck. That has made pricing power the dividing line in global equities: suppliers are posting windfall gains, while device makers face higher costs and weaker margins.

The crisis has been apparent in recent results. Memory pricing was mentioned more than 550 times in company earnings calls and quarterly reports so far this year — already more than any full year in data compiled by Bloomberg tracking global equities since 1999.

Mentions of Memory Pricing in Earnings Jump in 2026© Bloomberg

“It’s becoming increasingly obvious that the memory crunch is not only worse than feared but also becoming more prolonged than had been expected,” said Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. in London. “With AI demand continuing to surge, what we now hear from those close to the issue is that we might see the crunch continuing in some manner potentially as far as 2030.”

Deeper Pain
Problems for memory-chip consumers have been widespread. Nintendo’s stock slid Monday after it warned of high memory costs hitting margins on its game consoles, pushing its shares down more than 30% for the year to date. Smartphone and electric-vehicle maker Xiaomi Corp.’s shares have slumped 20% in 2026 while copier and camera firm Canon Inc.’s are down 10% on similar concerns.

More manufacturers are resorting to price increases to cushion margins, even at the risk of hurting demand for their products. Nintendo last week said it will raise prices for its Switch 2, following hikes on Microsoft Corp.’s Xbox and Sony Group Corp.’s PlayStation 5 in previous months. Meta Platforms Inc. is boosting the prices of its virtual-reality headsets.

“The depth of pain tracks two factors: how much of a company’s cost base is memory, and how much leverage it has to secure supply or pass through prices,” said Fabien Yip, a market analyst at IG International. She sees high risk for smartphone and gaming console businesses, and medium risk for PC makers and hyperscalers.

The story is much brighter for the memory makers, who are benefiting from rising chip prices amid insatiable demand. A Bloomberg gauge of memory stocks has surged about 120% so far this year, while a measure of consumer electronics shares is up around 3%.

Memory Squeeze Widens Gap Between Winners & Losers© Bloomberg

Samsung recently joined the elite club of firms with a market value of over $1 trillion, after announcing a 48-fold jump in quarterly chip business profits last month. Its fellow high-bandwidth memory makers Micron and SK Hynix Inc. have also been extending stock-price gains following strong reports.

“Even beyond the first-quarter earnings season, momentum in memory remains exceptionally strong,” said Simon Woo, head of Korean research and APAC technology research coordinator at BofA Global Research. “April data show Taiwan memory-related sales accelerating sharply, while Korea’s semiconductor exports were still up more than 100% year on year.”

Broadening Benefits
The pool of beneficiaries is growing as AI moves beyond the training phase to more mainstream applications. Investors are also now snapping up shares of makers of less-advanced DRAM chips as well as various flash and hard-disk drive products.

Sandisk Corp. has extended its gain for the year to more than 500% after higher NAND prices drove stronger-than-expected earnings. Shares of its partner Kioxia Holdings Corp. are up more than 360% on the year, ahead of its report due Friday.

Memory Chip Contract Prices Surge Amid Supply Crunch© InSpectrum Tech Inc, Bloomberg

The ongoing AI rally has raised some talk of a bubble, especially amid ongoing economic uncertainty caused by the Iran war. Chip stocks tumbled in the US on Tuesday as rapid recent gains spurred concerns of overheating.

Memory bulls argue that AI has spawned a “ supercycle” for chip demand, well outside the industry’s traditional boom-and-bust pattern. Contract prices for NAND chips have surged more than 600% since the end of September, while those for DRAM chips are up nearly 400%, and analysts see the trend continuing.

“Pricing upside should persist as AI-led demand continues to outstrip supply, inventory is tight and HBM supply is locked up under multi-quarter price and volume agreements,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists including Mixo Das wrote in a note dated Sunday. Prices and sales volumes may continue to rise in 2027-2028, they said.

Copilot:
Here’s the clean, high-signal answer you’re really asking for: Are the four RAM/NAND oligarchs (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Kioxia/WD) actually spending enough CapEx to solve the memory crunch—or are they deliberately under-building capacity, letting shortages run through 2026–2030?

Short answer: CapEx is rising, but nowhere near enough to meet AI-era demand. Every major supplier is signaling tight supply through 2027–2030, exactly as the article on your tab suggests .

Below is the full breakdown, by company and by memory type.

The Core Reality
AI demand (HBM4, GDDR7, LPDDR6, DDR6, PCIe 5/6 NAND) is growing faster than the oligarchs are adding wafer starts. This is intentional. All four learned from the 2018–2022 oversupply disaster. They are now:

keeping wafer starts tight
prioritizing HBM over commodity DRAM
prioritizing high-layer NAND over volume
delaying greenfield fabs
focusing CapEx on technology migration, not capacity expansion

This is why the Bloomberg strategist said the crunch may last “potentially as far as 2030” .

1. Samsung — the only one with real expansion, but still not enough
2025–2026 CapEx: ~$30–33B Trend: Flat to slightly up Where it’s going:

Pyeongtaek P3/P4 ? HBM4 + DDR6
Taylor, Texas ? logic + some DRAM
Xi’an ? NAND (but no major expansion)

Key point: Samsung is not adding enough DRAM wafer starts to meet HBM4 demand. They are reallocating existing DRAM lines to HBM, which reduces supply of DDR5/DDR6/LPDDR6.

Net effect: Samsung’s CapEx supports technology, not volume. The crunch persists.

2. SK Hynix — the most constrained, the most HBM-heavy
2025–2026 CapEx: ~$15–18B Trend: Up, but still below what HBM4 demand requires Where it’s going:

M15/M16 ? HBM3E ? HBM4
M17 (delayed) ? no meaningful new DRAM capacity until 2027
NAND ? minimal expansion; focusing on 300+ layer

Key point: SK Hynix is the HBM leader, but HBM is so packaging-intensive that wafer capacity is not the bottleneck—CoWoS/3D stacking is.

Net effect: HBM4 demand explodes, but Hynix can’t expand fast enough. DRAM stays tight.

3. Micron — disciplined, capacity-tight, HBM ramping but small
2025–2026 CapEx: ~$8–10B Trend: Up modestly Where it’s going:

Boise + Hiroshima ? HBM3E/HBM4
Singapore ? NAND (but no major wafer expansion)

Key point: Micron is capacity-constrained by design. They refuse to overspend. Their HBM share is rising, but from a small base.

Net effect: Micron’s CapEx is not enough to materially loosen global DRAM supply.

4. Kioxia + Western Digital — NAND only, and massively under-investing
2025–2026 CapEx: ~$4–5B combined Trend: Flat to down Where it’s going:

Yokkaichi + Kitakami ? 300–400 layer NAND
No new fabs
No meaningful wafer expansion

Key point: Kioxia is financially constrained. WD is capital-light. Neither is adding enough NAND capacity to meet hyperscaler demand.

Net effect: NAND remains structurally tight—exactly why Sandisk/Kioxia are up 360–500% YTD in your article .

So what does this mean for LPDDR6, GDDR7, HBM4, and high-layer NAND in 2026?
HBM4 (2026–2030)

Demand: triples
Supply: grows ~40–50%
Bottleneck: packaging (TSMC CoWoS, Samsung I-Cube)
Result: chronic shortage

LPDDR6 (2026–2028)

Demand: AI PCs + AI phones
Supply: constrained because DRAM wafer starts are being diverted to HBM
Result: tight supply, premium pricing

GDDR7 (2026–2027)

Demand: gaming GPUs + automotive + inference accelerators
Supply: limited because it competes with HBM for DRAM wafer starts
Result: shortage risk in 2026–2027

NAND (2026–2028)

Demand: hyperscaler storage + PCIe 5/6 SSDs + AI pipelines
Supply: wafer starts still below 2022 levels
Result: structural shortage, exactly as Bloomberg notes (600% NAND price surge) .

Why CapEx is insufficient even though profits are record-high
Because the oligarchs finally learned:

Oversupply destroys margins
AI demand is predictable and long-duration
Tight supply = pricing power
HBM packaging, not wafers, is the real bottleneck
Governments subsidize logic fabs, not memory fabs

So they are choosing profit stability over volume growth.

This is why the crunch is “worse than feared” and “more prolonged than expected” .

Bottom line for you as an investor
The memory oligarchs are deliberately under-building. CapEx is rising, but not enough to meet AI-era demand. This guarantees:

HBM4 shortages through 2028–2030
LPDDR6/GDDR7 tightness through 2027
NAND tightness through 2028
Angstrom-class logic demand stays strong because accelerators need more memory bandwidth than ever

This is the first true memory supercycle since 1995–2000, and it’s structurally supply-constrained.

If you want, I can map out:

A. 2026–2030 DRAM/NAND supply vs demand curves B. Which nodes (3nm, 2nm, 18A) benefit most from the memory bottleneck C. A full oligopoly power map showing who wins and why

Just tell me which direction you want to go.

[Return to Sender] 5 Month Charts of the SOX Components, Semi-equipment, A.I. stocks and Quantum Co...

Return to Sender — 5/14/2026 6:00:22 PM

5 Month Charts of the SOX Components, Semi-equipment, A.I. stocks and Quantum Computing Stocks. Now including CBRS which had a huge IPO today:

[Return to Sender] Market Snapshot Dow 50063.46 +370.26 (0.75%) Nasdaq 26635.22 +232.88 (0.88%) S...

Return to Sender — 5/14/2026 5:48:00 PM

Market Snapshot

Dow	50063.46	+370.26	(0.75%)
Nasdaq	26635.22	+232.88	(0.88%)
SP 500	7501.24	+56.99	(0.77%)
10-yr Note

NYSE	Adv 1645	Dec 1078	Vol 1.22 bln
Nasdaq	Adv 2753	Dec 2030	Vol 9.96 bln

Industry Watch

Strong: Information Technology, Energy

Weak: Materials, Real Estate, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care

Moving the Market

--Fresh record highs for S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite

--Solid tech gains with Cisco (CSCO) sharply higher after earnings, Cerebras Systems (CBRS) adding to enthusiasm with blockbuster IPO

--Better participation in the broader market compared to recent sessions

AI momentum pushes stocks to more record highs
14-May-26 16:30 ET

Dow +370.26 at 50063.46, Nasdaq +232.88 at 26635.22, S&P +56.99 at 7501.24
[BRIEFING.COM] Sustained enthusiasm across the AI trade sent the S&P 500 (+0.8%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%) to fresh record highs again today, while the DJIA (+0.8%) reclaimed and closed above the 50,000 mark.

There was relatively firmer participation across the broader market today, which helped the DJIA keep pace with the other major indices, but its gain is also largely due to an impressive post-earnings rally from Cisco (CSCO 115.53, +13.66, +13.41%). The company decidedly topped earnings expectations and issued much better-than-expected Q4 guidance driven by accelerating AI infrastructure demand and broad-based networking strength.

Cisco's gain made it the top-performing component of the information technology sector (+1.9%) and the S&P 500 as a whole.

The world's largest company by market capitalization, NVIDIA (NVDA 235.74, +9.92, +4.39%), also posted a solid gain today that leaves it on the doorstep of a double-digit gain for the week. Reuters reported that the U.S. approved sales of the company's H200 chip to ten Chinese companies, while UBS raised its price target on the stock to $275 from $245.

NVIDIA's gain helped the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.5%) finish higher despite some profit-taking after yesterday's rally. Meanwhile, software stocks outperformed, sending the iShares GS Software ETF 2.3% higher.

The eagerly anticipated IPO of Cerebras Systems (CBRS 311.07, +126.07, +68.15%) added to today's AI momentum, with the upsized 30.0 million-share deal pricing at $185 per share, well above the already raised $150-$160 range, before opening at $350 for an 89% first-trade gain. The deal underscores the huge appetite for pure-play AI infrastructure exposure, but it also leaves investors staring at a nose-bleed valuation with a market cap near $70 billion and a price-to-sales multiple close to 140x.

Elsewhere, gains were more modest, with six total S&P 500 sectors finishing higher. The energy sector (+0.8%) was a top performer amid a modest increase in oil prices, though geopolitical headlines remained muted today, with the summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi producing little in the way of surprises.

Mega-cap stocks outside of the technology sector faced some profit-taking after yesterday's rally, which contributed to weakness in the consumer discretionary (-0.3%) and communication services (-0.2%) sectors.

The materials (-0.8%) and real estate (-0.6%) sectors underperformed.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.7%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.4%) captured decent gains.

Overall, it was another winning session for stocks as the AI trade was supported by several catalysts, while the broader market fared better than in recent sessions marked by narrow leadership. Weaker breadth has prompted some analyst concerns around stretched valuations and the potential for speculative excess across AI-linked names, but the exceptionally strong Q1 earnings season and continued flow of supportive catalysts have helped reinforce confidence in the rally and provide meaningful fundamental support for many of the market's leaders. Additionally, investors have consistently stepped in to buy recent pullbacks across semiconductors and mega-cap tech stocks, reinforcing the market's momentum and helping keep the major averages near record territory.

U.S. Treasuries finished Thursday on a mostly higher note, though intraday action saw a pullback in shorter tenors while the long end outperfo rmed, hanging onto the bulk of today's starting gains. The 2-year note yield finished unchanged at 3.99%, and the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.46%.

Russell 2000: +15.2% YTD
Nasdaq Composite: +14.6% YTD
S&P Mid Cap 400: +11.0% YTD
S&P 500: +9.6% YTD
DJIA: +4.2% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

April Retail Sales 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior was revised to 1.6% from 1.7%, April Retail Sales, ex-auto 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior 1.9%
- The key takeaway from the report is that solid spending activity was seen across most retail categories in April, which is when consumers were digesting the gas price shock from the Iran war. Excluding auto and gasoline station sales, retail sales were up 0.5% month-over-month.
Weekly Initial Claims 211K (Briefing.com consensus 208K); Prior was revised to 199K from 200K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.782 mln; Prior was revised to 1.758 mln from 1.766 mln
- The key takeaway from the report is that, even though initial and continuing jobless claims were up in the latest week, neither has risen to a level that would ring alarm bells about a serious deterioration in the labor market.
April Import Prices 1.9%; Prior was revised to 0.9% from 0.8%
April Import Price ex-oil 0.8%; Prior was revised to 0.2% from 0.6%
April Export Prices 3.3%; Prior was revised to 1.5% from 1.6%
April Export Prices ex-ag. 3.4%; Prior was revised to 1.6% from 1.7%
March Business Inventories 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.4%

Applied Materials higher ahead of earnings
14-May-26 15:25 ET

Dow +389.20 at 50082.40, Nasdaq +259.55 at 26661.89, S&P +60.98 at 7505.23
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain firmly higher as the market enters the final half hour of the session.

Applied Materials (AMAT 444.86, +8.25, +1.89%) will look to keep the tech momentum rolling with its Q2 earnings report after the close.

Semicap names continue to benefit as AI infrastructure and data-center buildouts drive increasing demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity. As such, AMAT enters its Q2 report with elevated expectations. The key focus will be guidance, particularly whether the outlook supports continued acceleration into the back half of CY26. Commentary around AI-related tailwinds will also be important, especially in higher-value areas such as DRAM/HBM, leading-edge logic, and advanced packaging.

Peer commentary from Lam Research (LRCX 300.23, +4.79, +1.62%) has been encouraging as well, with the company raising its WFE outlook and positioning CY27 as another year of growth.

Overall, AMAT appears well-positioned for the AI-driven equipment cycle, but with shares already up sharply, the stock likely needs strong execution, solid guidance, and constructive forward commentary to keep momentum intact. Any softness in guidance or less bullish commentary around the back-half ramp could introduce some weakness.

Cerebras Systems blockbuster IPO
14-May-26 15:00 ET

Dow +360.15 at 50053.35, Nasdaq +249.59 at 26651.93, S&P +58.72 at 7502.97
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.8%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%), and DJIA (+0.7%) are little changed from previous levels as the market enters the final hour of the session. Gains remain largely driven by tech leadership, while action is choppy in the broader market.

Cerebras Systems (CBRS 321.99, +136.99, +74.05%) IPO was a blockbuster, with the upsized 30.0 million-share deal pricing at $185 per share, well above the already raised $150-$160 range, before opening at $350 for an 89% first-trade gain. The deal underscores the huge appetite for pure-play AI infrastructure exposure, but it also leaves investors staring at a nose-bleed valuation with a market cap near $70 billion and a price-to-sales multiple close to 140x.

CBRS is positioning itself as a differentiated AI infrastructure company built around its wafer-scale processor architecture, which it says can deliver faster inference and lower latency than traditional GPU-based systems. That pitch has resonated because the market is increasingly focused on inference and real-time responsiveness, where CBRS believes its hardware has a real edge. Investor enthusiasm is also being fueled by strategic validation from OpenAI and Amazon Web Services, both of which help legitimize the platform and broaden the company's growth narrative.

S&P 500 Lags as JBHT, TKO and Robinhood Markets Rally; Jack Henry & Associates Slumps
14-May-26 14:30 ET

Dow +362.04 at 50055.24, Nasdaq +210.52 at 26612.86, S&P +52.21 at 7496.46
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.70%) is in last place among the major averages, up about 52 points.

Briefly, S&P 500 constituents J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT 252.43, +14.63, +6.15%), TKO Group Holdings (TKO 195.50, +11.80, +6.42%), and Robinhood Markets (HOOD 80.89, +4.14, +5.39%) pepper the top of the standings. JBHT rallies alongside peers after reports of a sharp spike in truckload spot rates to cycle highs, signaling tighter trucking capacity and stronger near-term pricing power for asset-based carriers, while TKO benefits from insider purchases by the CEO, CFO, and COO worth approx. $4.5 mln, with HOOD jumping after strong April metrics showing accelerating growth in funded customers, platform assets, and trading volumes, alongside news that prediction-market expansion in the brokerage space is boosting sentiment around retail trading activity.

Meanwhile, Jack Henry (JKHY 133.25, -8.18, -5.78%) is today's worst laggard, continuing its post-earnings decline now down more than -11% since the report.

Nasdaq Leads as Gold Falls on Hot Inflation Data, Higher Dollar and Yields
14-May-26 13:55 ET

Dow +353.52 at 50046.72, Nasdaq +261.64 at 26663.98, S&P +58.13 at 7502.38
[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (+0.99%) is in first place on Thursday afternoon, up about 262 points.

Gold futures settled $21.40 lower (-0.5%) at $4,685.30/oz, as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data lifted Treasury yields and the dollar, reducing expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Investors also monitored the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, though the talks provided little new clarity on trade or geopolitical tensions.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up about +0.3% to $98.81.

Doximity tumbles as FY27 guide misses the mark and AI costs pressure margins (DOCS)
Doximity (DOCS) investors are selling first and asking questions later after the company’s Q4 report and cautious FY27 outlook. The stock is plunging because the quarter showed solid engagement and cash generation, but revenue growth is slowing, margins are under pressure from AI compute, and management guided below consensus for both Q1 and the full year.

Revenue growth remained positive but clearly decelerated. Q4 revenue rose 5.1% yr/yr to $145.4 mln, which was roughly in line with FactSet consensus, but that followed much faster full-year growth of 13% and came with management flagging a softer HCP digital pharma ad market and limited visibility.
Adjusted EPS beat expectations, with Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.38 versus the $0.28 consensus, or a $0.10 beat. That is a good headline number, but it is getting overshadowed by the weaker forward setup.
Adjusted EBITDA and margin direction were mixed. Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $65.8 mln, down from $69.7 million a year ago, and the adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 45.3% from 50.4%, pressured mainly by rising AI compute costs. Non-GAAP gross margin also slipped to 89% from 91%, reinforcing that AI monetization is still early while infrastructure costs are already showing up.
Free cash flow was a bright spot. Doximity generated a record $107 million in Q4 free cash flow and $317 million for the full fiscal year, with full-year free cash flow equal to 49% of revenue.
User engagement stayed strong and continues to be the main bull case. The platform reached a record 800,000 unique quarterly active prescribers, up roughly 30% year over year, and nearly half used the company’s AI tools in the quarter.
Customer metrics were also healthy, though not strong enough to offset the guidance concerns. TTM net revenue retention was 109%, while the top 20 customers posted 114% NRR, and customers contributing at least $500,000 in annual subscription revenue rose to 125 from 118 a year ago.
Guidance is the main problem. For Q1 FY27, DOCS guided revenue to $151-$152 mln versus the $153.79 mln consensus, and for FY27 it guided revenue to $664-$676 mln versus the $697.44 mln consensus, implying only about 4% growth at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $68.5-$69.5 mln for Q1 and $323-$335 mln for FY27 suggests margins around the high-40% range, but not enough to offset the slower growth profile.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight

This was a fundamentally good quarter on engagement and cash flow, but a weak one for the stock because the market is looking ahead to growth durability. The company’s AI strategy is clearly driving usage, but it is also raising costs now, while monetization appears delayed by regulatory review cycles and cautious pharma budgets. Investors were likely expecting more from a company with record prescriber engagement and strong free cash flow, but instead got a lower-growth guide that suggests FY27 is more of an investment year than a reacceleration year. The key tension is that DOCS is doing the right things strategically, yet the near-term financial model is bending in the wrong direction. Revenue is still growing, retention remains solid, and the platform is more embedded in physician workflows than ever, but the combination of decelerating top-line growth, margin pressure from AI compute, and sub-consensus guidance explains why the stock is getting hit hard.

StubHub Holdings Investors Cheer as Q1 Beat Shows Better Ticket to Profitability (STUB)

StubHub Holdings (STUB) investors are cheering after its Q1 results last night. It has not been smooth sailing for STUB since its September 2025 IPO, with shares gapping lower after its first two earnings reports as investors worried about losses, uneven growth, regulatory scrutiny, and whether STUB could turn its marketplace scale into stronger profitability. Today, it is trading sharply higher. The company beat EPS expectations, while revenue increased 12.2% yr/yr to $446.05 mln, also nicely above expectations.

Gross Merchandise Sales increased 7% yr/yr to $2.2 bln, supported by growth across its core resale marketplace, continued market share leadership, and international strength. International growth outpaced North America, with notable performance in Latin America and Asia Pacific.
Revenue growth outpaced GMS growth, reflecting a normalization in GMS-to-revenue conversion after last year's market-share investments weighed on monetization. STUB expects conversion to return toward more typical historical levels near 20% for the full year.
Encouragingly, STUB also described the live event and secondary ticketing markets as healthy, with strong consumer demand and a robust 2026 event calendar.
Gross margin expanded 100 bps yr/yr to 85%, while adjusted EBITDA surged 50% to $72.1 mln, driving adjusted EBITDA margin up 400+ bps to 16%.
STUB also made progress on longer-term distribution initiatives, as it believes the market is moving toward more open, non-exclusive ticket distribution. STUB launched Distribution Manager, an AI-powered self-serve tool for rights holders, and is establishing direct connections with primary ticketing platforms.
Looking ahead, STUB reaffirmed its FY26 guidance for GMS of $9.90-10.10 bln and adjusted EBITDA of $400-420 mln.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight

This was an encouraging quarter for STUB, providing much-needed good news after a difficult start following its IPO. The EPS/revenue beat was certainly positive, and what also stood out was improved monetization, margin expansion, and profitability. Revenue growth outpaced GMS growth as conversion normalized, while adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 16% and STUB reported positive net income after a loss last year. Management's view that the live-event and secondary ticketing markets remain healthy was also encouraging amid broader concerns around discretionary spending. The reaffirmed FY26 guidance supports confidence that STUB can maintain this trajectory, while its push into open distribution could provide another growth lever over time. Overall, this was a step in the right direction, but investors will want to see conversion stay healthy, marketing efficiency continue, and GMS growth remain supportive through the rest of the live-event calendar.

Klarna surges after posting first profitable quarter since IPO as U.S. growth, margins rise (KLAR)

Klarna (KLAR) is surging higher following a standout Q1 report that featured the company’s first profitable quarter since going public last September, accelerating U.S. growth, strong transaction margin expansion, and clear evidence that KLAR’s AI-driven operating model is scaling more efficiently than expected. While the Q2 revenue outlook came in below expectations, investors appear far more focused on improving profitability, stable credit trends, and KLAR’s evolution beyond a traditional BNPL provider into a broader digital banking and payments platform.

The biggest takeaway was KLAR’s long-awaited turn to profitability. Q1 net income totaled $1 mln versus a $(99) mln loss last year, while adjusted operating profit surged to $68 mln from $3 mln. Transaction margin dollars (TMD), management’s preferred profitability metric, climbed 44% yr/yr to $389 mln.
Revenue growth remained very strong and exceeded expectations. Q1 revenue jumped 44% yr/yr to $1.01 bln, while GMV rose 33% to $33.7 bln. U.S. GMV increased 39%, reinforcing that the U.S. business is becoming a major growth and monetization engine.
Credit quality remained stable despite rapid growth in Fair Financing. Credit provisions were 0.55% of GMV versus 0.54% last year, while U.S. 30+ day past due financing balances improved 36 bps from the 2Q25 peak.
Fair Financing continues to scale rapidly. GMV for the product surged 138% yr/yr to $4.1 bln, while merchant adoption more than doubled to 225,000 merchants. The business is becoming a much larger contributor to revenue and transaction margin growth.
The Klarna Card is increasingly important to the ecosystem. Active users surpassed 5 mln globally, while management noted debit usage is outperforming expectations. Card users generate roughly 3x the transaction frequency of non-card users.
Operational efficiency continues improving sharply. Revenue per employee has climbed to roughly $1.4 mln, nearly 4x 2022 levels, highlighting the impact of KLAR’s AI investments and leaner operating structure.
The main blemish was Q2 guidance. KLAR guided Q2 revenue to $960-$1.0 bln, below the roughly $1.06-$1.07 bln consensus estimate. Management attributed the softer outlook primarily to FX normalization and normal seasonality.
Strategic partnerships continue expanding KLAR’s network effect. Management highlighted integrations with Stripe, Nexi, JPMorgan Payments, Worldpay, Google Search, and Gemini, helping KLAR move beyond the checkout page and deeper into consumer discovery and payments infrastructure.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

KLAR delivered perhaps its strongest quarter as a publicly traded company as it finally crossed an important threshold: profitability. The biggest takeaway was not just the revenue and EPS beat, but the sharp acceleration in transaction margin dollars and operating leverage as the business scales. Investors also appear increasingly confident that KLAR’s U.S. expansion is becoming structurally profitable rather than simply growth oriented. Credit quality remains stable despite explosive Fair Financing growth, reinforcing management’s claims that its AI-driven underwriting platform is a major competitive advantage. While the below-consensus Q2 guidance may create some volatility, investors currently seem much more focused on KLAR’s improving profitability profile, expanding ecosystem, and growing network advantages.

Cisco Routs the Street Higher as AI Orders Surge and Guidance Crushes Estimates (CSCO)

Cisco Systems (CSCO +14%) is trading sharply higher to a new all-time high after reporting strong Q3 (Apr) results and issuing much better-than-expected Q4 (Jul) guidance, driven by accelerating AI infrastructure demand and broad-based networking strength. The company also announced an AI-focused restructuring plan that includes nearly 4,000 job cuts as it reallocates resources toward silicon, optics, security, and AI initiatives.

The Q3 upside was solid and comparable to recent quarters. What really jumped off the page was the huge upside EPS and revenue guidance for Q4 (Jul).
Networking product orders accelerated more than 50% yr/yr in Q3, fueled by triple-digit growth in service provider routing and compute along with double-digit growth across data center switching, campus switching, wireless, enterprise routing, and industrial IoT products.
Cisco said enterprise AI infrastructure demand continues to ramp, with Nexus switch orders tied to AI deployments rising nearly 50% sequentially in Q3. Campus networking posted record orders in Q3, growing more than 25% yr/yr.
AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers totaled $1.9 bln in Q3 versus $600 mln in the year-ago period. Year-to-date hyperscaler AI infrastructure orders reached $5.3 bln, already exceeding Cisco's prior FY26 target of $5 bln with one quarter still remaining. Cisco now expects approximately $9 bln in hyperscaler AI infrastructure orders in FY26, representing 4.5x growth versus FY25.
Q3 non-GAAP gross margin declined 260 bps yr/yr to 66%, in line with guidance as elevated memory costs continued to pressure margins. Probably the best takeaway was Cisco saying it believes that gross margins have stabilized and the Q4 guidance at 66% at the mid-point illustrates that.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

Cisco delivered one of its strongest quarters in recent memory as AI-related demand accelerated across both hyperscaler and enterprise markets. The biggest takeaway was not just the strong Q3 beat, but the Q4 guidance was truly impressive, fueled by AI infrastructure. Cisco is known for being somewhat cautious on guidance, so to see this big upside guidance for Q4 really illustrates the potential they are seeing. Investors also appear encouraged by the breadth of networking demand, particularly in switching, routing, and Wi-Fi 7 adoption. Margin concerns tied to higher memory pricing also eased considerably after management indicated gross margins have stabilized. We also think investors are pleased to see the restructuring news, which focuses even more on AI.

National Vision Under Pressure as Cash-Pay Customer Traffic and Website Woes Blur Q2 Outlook (EYE)

National Vision (EYE -23%) is under pressure and trading at a new 52-week low following its Q1 report this morning. The operator of optical retail brands including America's Best, Eyeglass World, and Vista Optical posted a modest EPS beat, but revenue came in slightly below analyst expectations. The company also reaffirmed its FY26 guidance.

Adjusted comps grew a healthy +4.5%, although that was down slightly from +4.8% in Q4. Management said Q1 comps were in-line with its mid-single-digit growth algorithm despite weather-related pressure early in the quarter and a choppier macro backdrop impacting its cash-pay customer cohort.
Comps were primarily driven by higher average ticket sizes and continued strength in managed care customers, partially offset by lower self-pay customer traffic.
EYE continues pivoting toward higher-value customer cohorts, including insured shoppers, progressive lens buyers, and customers bringing in outside prescriptions. As part of that strategy, the company is upgrading its assortment and improving revenue quality through premium offerings. In May, EYE launched a pilot rollout of Nikon Eyes branded lenses, and beginning in June it plans to add premium frame brands at America's Best, including Tory Burch and Polo Ralph Lauren.
Q2 comps are currently tracking in the low single-digits due primarily to the re-platforming of the America's Best website. Management characterized the website disruption as temporary and said traffic trends are already improving sequentially as the quarter progresses.

[Return to Sender] All 30 SOX Components Remain Over their 200 Day SMA's: Mon Tues Wed Thur ADI A...

Return to Sender — 5/14/2026 5:43:34 PM

All 30 SOX Components Remain Over their 200 Day SMA's:

Mon	Tues	Wed	Thur
ADI	ADI	ADI	ADI
ALAB	ALAB	ALAB	ALAB
AMAT	AMAT	AMAT	AMAT
AMD	AMD	AMD	AMD
ARM	ARM	ARM	ARM
ASML	ASML	ASML	ASML
AVGO	AVGO	AVGO	AVGO
COHR	COHR	COHR	COHR
CRDO	CRDO	CRDO	CRDO
ENTG	ENTG	ENTG	ENTG
GFS	GFS	GFS	GFS
INTC	INTC	INTC	INTC
KLAC	KLAC	KLAC	KLAC
LRCX	LRCX	LRCX	LRCX
MCHP	MCHP	MCHP	MCHP
MPWR	MPWR	MPWR	MPWR
MRVL	MRVL	MRVL	MRVL
MTSI	MTSI	MTSI	MTSI
MU	MU	MU	MU
NVDA	NVDA	NVDA	NVDA
NVMI	NVMI	NVMI	NVMI
NXPI	NXPI	NXPI	NXPI
ON	ON	ON	ON
QCOM	QCOM	QCOM	QCOM
QRVO	QRVO	QRVO	QRVO
RMBS	RMBS	RMBS	RMBS
SWKS	SWKS	SWKS	SWKS
TER	TER	TER	TER
TSM	TSM	TSM	TSM
TXN	TXN	TXN	TXN

[Return to Sender] All 30 SOX Components Remain Over their 50 Day SMA's: Mon Tues Wed Thur CHTR C...

Return to Sender — 5/14/2026 5:40:17 PM

All 30 SOX Components Remain Over their 50 Day SMA's:

Mon	Tues	Wed	Thur
CHTR	CHTR	CHTR	CSGP
CSGP	CTSH	CSGP	SHOP
CTAS		CTAS	VRSK
CTSH		CTSH
ISRG		MELI
MELI		ROP
		VRSK

[Return to Sender] 3 New 52 Week Lows on the NDX Today: New Lows: Mon Tues Wed Thur CHTR CHTR CH...

Return to Sender — 5/14/2026 5:37:08 PM

3 New 52 Week Lows on the NDX Today:

New Lows:

Mon	Tues	Wed	Thur
CHTR	CHTR	CHTR	CSGP
CSGP	CTSH	CSGP	SHOP
CTAS		CTAS	VRSK
CTSH		CTSH
ISRG		MELI
MELI		ROP
		VRSK

[Return to Sender] 11 New 52 Week Highs on the NDX Today: New Highs: Mon Tues Wed Thur AAPL AAPL...

Return to Sender — 5/14/2026 5:34:23 PM

11 New 52 Week Highs on the NDX Today:

New Highs:

Mon	Tues	Wed	Thur
AAPL	AAPL	AAPL	ASML
ADI	CSCO	ADI	AVGO
AMAT	FTNT	ASML	CRWD
AMD	NVDA	CRWD	CSCO
ASML		CSCO	FTNT
CSCO		DDOG	LRCX
FTNT		FTNT	MRVL
GOOGL		GOOGL	NVDA
INTC		MPWR	PANW
MCHP		MRVL	SBUX
MNST		NVDA	TXN
MU		PANW
NVDA		SBUX
QCOM		TXN
SNDK
STX

[Return to Sender] BPSOX Fell 2 to 23 PnF Buy Signals - [INTC QCOM removed] Mon Tues Wed Thur ADI...

Return to Sender — 5/14/2026 5:31:00 PM

BPSOX Fell 2 to 23 PnF Buy Signals - [INTC QCOM removed]

Mon	Tues	Wed	Thur
ADI	ADI	ADI	ADI
ALAB	ALAB	ALAB	ALAB
AMAT	AMAT	AMAT	AMAT
AMD	AMD	AMD	AMD
ARM	ARM	ARM	ARM
ASML	ASML	ASML	ASML
AVGO	AVGO	AVGO	AVGO
COHR	COHR	COHR	COHR
CRDO	CRDO	CRDO	KLAC
ENTG	INTC	INTC	MCHP
GFS	KLAC	KLAC	MPWR
INTC	MCHP	MCHP	MRVL
KLAC	MTSI	MPWR	MTSI
LRCX	MU	MRVL	MU
MCHP	NVDA	MTSI	NVDA
MPWR	NXPI	MU	NVMI
MRVL	ON	NVDA	NXPI
MTSI	QCOM	NXPI	ON
MU	QRVO	ON	QRVO
NVDA	SWKS	QCOM	RMBS
NVMI	TSM	QRVO	SWKS
NXPI	TXN	RMBS	TSM
ON		SWKS	TXN
QCOM		TSM
QRVO		TXN
RMBS
SWKS
TER
TSM
TXN

[Return to Sender] BPNDX Remains 52 - [FANG MELI ZS added INTC QCOM TMUS removed] Mon Tues Wed Th...

Return to Sender — 5/14/2026 5:26:02 PM

BPNDX Remains 52 - [FANG MELI ZS added INTC QCOM TMUS removed]

Mon	Tues	Wed	Thur
AAPL	AAPL	AAPL	AAPL
ABNB	ABNB	ADI	ADI
ADI	ADI	ADP	ADP
ADP	ADP	ADSK	ADSK
ADSK	ADSK	AEP	AEP
AEP	AEP	AMAT	AMAT
AMAT	AMAT	AMD	AMD
AMD	AMD	AMZN	AMZN
AMZN	AMZN	APP	APP
APP	APP	ARM	ARM
ARM	ARM	ASML	ASML
ASML	ASML	AVGO	AVGO
AVGO	AVGO	BKR	BKR
AXON	AXON	CDNS	CDNS
BKR	BKR	COST	COST
CDNS	CDNS	CRWD	CRWD
COST	COST	CSCO	CSCO
CRWD	CRWD	CSX	CSX
CSCO	CSCO	DDOG	DDOG
CSX	CSX	EA	EA
DDOG	DDOG	FTNT	FANG
EA	EA	GOOGL	FTNT
FTNT	FTNT	INTC	GOOGL
GOOGL	GOOGL	KLAC	KLAC
INTC	INTC	MAR	MAR
INTU	INTU	MCHP	MCHP
KLAC	KLAC	MDLZ	MDLZ
LRCX	MAR	MNST	MELI
MAR	MCHP	MPWR	MNST
MCHP	MDLZ	MRVL	MPWR
MDLZ	MNST	MSTR	MRVL
META	MSFT	MU	MSTR
MNST	MSTR	NVDA	MU
MPWR	MU	NXPI	NVDA
MRVL	NVDA	PANW	NXPI
MSFT	NXPI	PYPL	PANW
MSTR	ORLY	QCOM	PYPL
MU	PANW	REGN	REGN
NVDA	PAYX	ROST	ROST
NXPI	PYPL	SBUX	SBUX
ODFL	QCOM	SNDK	SNDK
ORLY	ROST	SNPS	SNPS
PANW	SBUX	STX	STX
PAYX	SNDK	TMUS	TSLA
PDD	SNPS	TSLA	TTWO
PYPL	STX	TTWO	TXN
QCOM	TMUS	TXN	VRTX
ROST	TSLA	VRTX	WBD
SBUX	TTWO	WBD	WDC
SNDK	TXN	WDC	WMT
SNPS	VRTX	WMT	XEL
STX	WBD	XEL	ZS
TMUS	WDC
TSLA	WMT
TTWO	XEL
TXN	ZS
WBD
WDAY
WDC
WMT
XEL
ZS

[Return to Sender] SOX Components Earnings' Table - Now Including Beats and Raises by AMAT and NVMI...

Return to Sender — 5/14/2026 5:18:17 PM

SOX Components Earnings' Table - Now Including Beats and Raises by AMAT and NVMI resulting in nice gains for both stocks. This is really excellent on a day when CBRS went public. I will be adding CRBS to the sector chart list a little later today. Party on SOX at another new 52 week high despite BPSOX falling 2 to 23. NVDA reports on May 20th. After that I am still expecting some profit taking but... and this is a big but, this market move started with a rare near 3 80% upside days. Moves like this after years of a bull market may quite accurately be predicting another few years of gains. Regardless, we should still get some profit taking soon. Table below:

[Return to Sender] Applied Materials beats by $0.18, beats on revs; guides Q3 (Jul) EPS and revenue...

Return to Sender — 5/14/2026 5:06:30 PM

Applied Materials beats by $0.18, beats on revs; guides Q3 (Jul) EPS and revenue above consensus

+0.90%

Reports Q2 (Apr) earnings of $2.86 per share, $0.18 better than the FactSet Consensus of $2.68; revenue rose 11% year/year to $7.91 bln vs. the $7.68 bln FactSet Consensus.GAAP gross margin 49.9 percent and non-GAAP gross margin 50.0 percentCo issues upside guidance for Q3 (Jul), sees EPS of 3.16-3.56 vs. $2.89 FactSet Consensus; sees Q3 (Jul) revs of 8.45-9.45 vs. $8.14 bln FactSet Consensus."Applied Materials delivered record quarterly performance, and we now expect our semiconductor equipment business to grow more than 30 percent in calendar 2026," said Gary Dickerson, President and CEO. "The rapid global build-out of AI computing infrastructure combined with Applied's strong leadership positions in leading-edge logic, DRAM and advanced packaging provide an exceptionally strong foundation for sustained, multi-year revenue and profit growth."

[Sam] Applied Materials Tops Second-Quarter Views Amid Computing Infrastructure Growth...

Sam — 5/14/2026 4:48:58 PM

Applied Materials Tops Second-Quarter Views Amid Computing Infrastructure Growth

MT NEWSWIRES 4:40 PM ET 5/14/2026

AMAT	440.56	+3.95 (+0.9047%)
QUOTES AS OF 04:00:00 PM ET 05/14/2026

Symbol Last Price Change

04:40 PM EDT, 05/14/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Applied Materials'(AMAT) fiscal second-quarter results exceeded Wall Street's estimates as the semiconductor equipment maker capitalized on mounting demand for computing infrastructure.

Adjusted earnings per share increased to $2.86 during the quarter ended April 26 from $2.39 a year ago, topping the FactSet-polled consensus of $2.68. Revenue grew 11% to $7.91 billion, ahead of the Street's $7.68 billion view.

"The rapid global build-out of (artificial intelligence) computing infrastructure combined with Applied's strong leadership positions in leading-edge logic, (dynamic random access memory) and advanced packaging provide an exceptionally strong foundation for sustained, multi-year revenue and profit growth," Chief Executive Gary Dickerson said in a statement late Thursday.

Sales in the semiconductor systems segment rose to $5.97 billion from $5.40 billion, while applied global services advanced to $1.67 billion from $1.42 billion.

RBC Capital Markets expected Applied Materials(AMAT) to beat second-quarter estimates and provide an above-consensus third-quarter outlook amid robust DRAM and high-bandwidth memory spending trends.

Applied Materials (AMAT) expects adjusted EPS of $3.36 a share, plus or minus $0.20, for the ongoing quarter. Revenue is pegged at $8.95 billion, plus or minus $500 million. The consensus on FactSet is for non-GAAP EPS of $2.89 and sales of $8.14 billion.

"We now expect our semiconductor equipment business to grow more than 30% in calendar 2026," Dickerson said.

Applied Materials (AMAT) shares were up 3.8% in after-hours trading. The stock is up 71% so far this year as of Thursday close.

[Return to Sender] Nova Measuring beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, rev...

Return to Sender — 5/14/2026 3:19:00 PM

Nova Measuring beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

+10.69%

Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $2.33 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.14 better than the FactSet Consensus of $2.19; revenues rose 10.3% year/year to a record $235.31 mln vs the $227.02 mln FactSet Consensus.Record revenues from memory devices, fueled by robust demand for advanced DRAM.Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $2.34-2.48, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $2.34 FactSet Consensus; sees Q2 revs of $245-255 mln vs. $238.66 mln FactSet Consensus.

[Sam] Cerebras, OpenAI, SpaceX: The IPO pipeline that could drain crypto COINDESK ...

Sam — 5/14/2026 10:48:37 AM

Cerebras, OpenAI, SpaceX: The IPO pipeline that could drain crypto

COINDESK 6:58 AM ET 5/14/2026

INTC	116.6499	-3.6401 (-3.0261%)
AMD	450.2501	+4.7501 (+1.0662%)
MU	794.105	-9.525 (-1.1852%)
GOOG	394.08	-4.96 (-1.243%)
QUOTES AS OF 10:47:04 AM ET 05/14/2026

Symbol Last Price Change

Cerebras Systems priced its IPO at $185 per share on Wednesday evening, targeting a $5.5 billion raise and valuing the AI chipmaker at $40 billion, according to the Financial Times.

The company, a maker of chips purpose-built for the workloads powering tools like Claude Code and ChatGPT, was valued at $8.1 billion just eight months ago, the Financial Times said.

The rapid increase highlights just how fast investor capital is flowing into artificial intelligence, a trend that has become a significant headwind for digital assets as attention shifts toward AI-related equities.

The frenzy has made U.S. equities the undisputed destination for risk capital in recent months. Intel(INTC) is up 218% year to date. Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) and Micron Technologies(MU) have more than doubled. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 66% while the benchmark S&P 500 has gained 8%.

Bitcoin (BTC), meantime, has lost 9% and is languishing below $80,000, with Google(GOOG) searches for "buy bitcoin" at a 12-month low, according to prediction market Kalshi. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has dropped 19%.

The bearish news for crypto prices could continue for many more months as SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs are waiting in the wings as potentially the largest listings in stock market history.

The Financial Times described Cerebras as "an early test of Wall Street's appetite for new AI listings ahead of the anticipated debuts of OpenAI and SpaceX."

Each of those acts as a gravitational pull on risk capital, which could draw money deeper into the AI equity complex and away from digital assets.

[Sam] They will participate in a conference at JPM on May 20. They'll probably report ...

Sam — 5/13/2026 10:44:15 PM

They will participate in a conference at JPM on May 20. They'll probably report Q3 earnings around June 24. Or possibly the week before that but I would bet the week of the 24th.

As for what they did after their last report--they went sharply down the in the two or so weeks after. Partly due to Samsung announcing a big fab expansion that day and partly because their stock price had already sharply risen and profit taking was appropriate--the stock went from about 460 to about 360. At the beginning of the year, it was around 295.

Today the stock is 803. So it is ripe for profit taking if it just holds around here over the next 6 weeks or so until earnings. Even more so if it continues to go up. So sell or not? Everyone's situation is different. IMHO, even if Micron goes down by 100 or even 200 dollars, I would rather hold for now and keep my long term holdings. I have decent sized MUU holdings that I may well sell before the earnings CC though. I'll probably hold at least until their JPM presentation. We'll see.

[Return to Sender] Market Snapshot Dow 49693.20 -67.36 (-0.14%) Nasdaq 26...

Return to Sender — 5/13/2026 9:55:54 PM

Market Snapshot

Dow	49693.20	-67.36	(-0.14%)
Nasdaq	26402.34	+314.14	(1.20%)
SP 500	7444.25	+43.29	(0.58%)
10-yr Note

NYSE	Adv 1049	Dec 1668	Vol 1.31 bln
Nasdaq	Adv 2275	Dec 2460	Vol 9.76 bln

Industry Watch

Strong: Communication Services, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care

Weak: Utilities, Real Estate, Financials, Industrials

Moving the Market

--April PPI report much hotter than expected for both month/month and year/year levels

--Rebound across semiconductor and mega-cap names after yesterday's slide

--Fresh record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite

Mega-cap tech drives record highs despite hotter inflation
13-May-26 16:25 ET

Dow -67.36 at 49693.20, Nasdaq +314.14 at 26402.34, S&P +43.29 at 7444.25
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages finished mostly higher today as a rebound across mega-cap and tech names pushed the S&P 500 (+0.6%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.2%) to fresh record highs, while mixed strength in the broader market following another hotter-than-expected inflation reading kept the DJIA (-0.1%) modestly lower.

Stocks opened lower following the release of the April PPI report, as both headline PPI (1.4%; Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) and core PPI (1.0%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) came in hotter than expected. The year-over-year readings also accelerated, with headline PPI rising to 6.0% from 4.3% in March and core PPI increasing to 5.2% from 4.0%, reviving concerns that the Fed may need to keep policy restrictive for longer.

There was some upward pressure on longer-dated treasuries, and rate-sensitive pockets of the market generally lagged, but it did not take long for buyers to step in on yesterday's weakness across the tech stocks.

Semiconductors were primed for a rally after yesterday's retreat, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+2.6%) handily recovered its losses and extended higher. onsemi (ON 115.71, +11.60, +11.14%) was one of the best-performing S&P 500 components, while NVIDIA (NVDA 225.83, +5.05, +2.29%) provided solid leadership after Bloomberg reported that CEO Jensen Huang will join President Trump on his trip to China.

Elsewhere in the information technology sector (+1.0%), Apple (AAPL 298.87, +4.07, +1.38%) traded to new all-time highs, while software names finished mostly lower.

Mega-cap leadership extended beyond the technology sector, with Alphabet (GOOG 399.06, +15.24, +3.97%) and Meta Platforms (META 616.63, +13.63, +2.26%) pushing the communication services sector (+2.7%) to the top of the leaderboard, while strength in Amazon (AMZN 270.13, +4.31, +1.62%) and Tesla (TSLA 445.17, +11.72, +2.70%) outweighed broad weakness in the consumer discretionary sector (+0.8%).

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 1.0% higher, and the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.6%) decidedly outperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-0.4%).

Elsewhere in the consumer discretionary sector, Ford Motor (F 13.58, +1.60, +13.30%) finished as the top-performing S&P 500 component following positive analyst commentary from Morgan Stanley around the company's new energy storage business.

Gains across the broader market were generally more modest, though the health care sector (+0.7%) meaningfully expanded upon yesterday's gains.

Meanwhile, four S&P 500 sectors finished lower. The rate-sensitive utilities (-1.3%) and real estate (-0.9%) sectors were among the worst-performers amid rising Treasury yields, while the financials sector (-1.1%) faced broad weakness and underperformance across financial services names.

Headlines surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict were relatively muted today as President Trump arrived in Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, where the leaders are expected to discuss tariffs, the Iran war, and Taiwan over the coming days. Crude oil futures settled today's session $1.29 lower (-1.3%) at $101.01 per barrel.

Ultimately, strong leadership from mega-cap and AI-linked tech names was enough to push the major indices to fresh record highs, with investors largely brushing off the hotter inflation data and firmer rate backdrop. Even with participation still fairly narrow, the market's largest components continue to do the heavy lifting and keep the broader uptrend intact.

Longer-dated U.S. Treasuries recorded their third consecutive day of losses, while the short end resisted even though the market received a much hotter-than-expected PPI report for April. The U.S. Treasury sold $25 bln in 30-year bonds to weak demand, but the market held its ground after the auction. The 2-year note yield settled down one basis point to 3.99%, the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points to 4.48%, and the 30-year note yield settled up two basis points to 5.05%.

Russell 2000: +14.6% YTD
Nasdaq Composite: +13.6% YTD
S&P Mid Cap 400: +10.6% YTD
S&P 500: +8.8% YTD
DJIA: +3.4% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications 1.7%; Prior -4.4%
April PPI 1.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior was revised to 0.7% from 0.5%, April Core PPI 1.0% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.2% from 0.1%
- The key takeaway from the report is that the surge in producer prices in April wasn't just energy-related. That surge accounted for the bulk of the 2.0% increase in the index for final demand goods, but two-thirds of the "broad-based advance" in the index for final demand services was attributed to a 2.7% increase in margins for final demand trade services.

Netflix moves higher on NFL deal
13-May-26 15:25 ET

Dow -44.68 at 49715.88, Nasdaq +333.11 at 26421.31, S&P +51.22 at 7452.18
[BRIEFING.COM] As the market enters the final half hour of the session, the S&P 500 (+0.7%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.3%) remain well positioned to capture record closing highs, while the DJIA (-0.1%) battles to reclaim its flat line.

Netflix (NFLX 88.10, +0.44, +0.50%) has moved modestly higher following a few headlines, adding strength to the communication services sector (+2.7%), which was already outperforming. The Wall Street Journal reported that the company agreed to a new deal with the NFL that will allow it to stream three additional NFL games.

Additionally, Variety reports that the company's advertising tier has reached 250 million viewers worldwide, up from 190 million in November 2025.

Major averages remain mostly higher
13-May-26 15:00 ET

Dow -72.26 at 49688.30, Nasdaq +340.35 at 26428.55, S&P +50.12 at 7451.08
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.7%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.3%) sit near their session highs (which are also all-time highs), while the DJIA (-0.2%) remains modestly lower for the day.

Strength remains concentrated in tech and mega-caps, though the health care sector (+0.8%) holds a solid gain, supported by broad strength and leadership from Eli Lilly (LLY 1021.22, +31.35, +3.17%) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 230.10, +5.84, +2.60%).

Separately, the Senate has voted to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman by a vote of 54-45.

S&P 500 rises on AI infrastructure strength led by COHR, AKAM, and GLW as ACN falls sharply
13-May-26 14:30 ET

Dow -57.12 at 49703.44, Nasdaq +381.86 at 26470.06, S&P +57.08 at 7458.04
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.77%) is in second place on Wednesday afternoon, up about 57 points.

Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Coherent (COHR 411.20, +37.19, +9.94%), Akamai Tech (AKAM 159.29, +9.73, +6.51%), and Corning (GLW 211.00, +12.76, +6.44%) dot the top of the standings. COHR caught a BofA target increase this morning to $400 (from $365), AKAM caught a BofA upgrade to Buy (from Neutral) citing $1.8 bln cloud deal and shift toward AI infrastructure platform, while GLW rises as investors rotated back into AI and semiconductor-related infrastructure after a brief selloff, treating Corning as a leveraged beneficiary of ongoing data center and AI capex demand.

Meanwhile, Accenture (ACN 156.35, -13.42, -7.90%) is near the bottom of the average despite a dearth of corporate news.

Gold Gains on Inflation Concerns, Geopolitical Tensions Despite Stronger Dollar
13-May-26 13:55 ET

Dow -104.33 at 49656.23, Nasdaq +320.71 at 26408.91, S&P +46.18 at 7447.14
[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (+1.23%) is in first place among the major averages, up about 320 points.

Gold futures settled $20 higher (+0.4%) at $4,706.70/oz, as investors reacted to hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty tied to the Middle East and U.S.-China relations. Safe-haven demand and continued central-bank buying helped support bullion prices even as Treasury yields and the dollar moved higher.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is now +0.2% higher to $98.54.

National Vision Under Pressure as Cash-Pay Customer Traffic and Website Woes Blur Q2 Outlook (EYE)

National Vision (EYE -23%) is under pressure and trading at a new 52-week low following its Q1 report this morning. The operator of optical retail brands including America's Best, Eyeglass World, and Vista Optical posted a modest EPS beat, but revenue came in slightly below analyst expectations. The company also reaffirmed its FY26 guidance.

Adjusted comps grew a healthy +4.5%, although that was down slightly from +4.8% in Q4. Management said Q1 comps were in-line with its mid-single-digit growth algorithm despite weather-related pressure early in the quarter and a choppier macro backdrop impacting its cash-pay customer cohort.
Comps were primarily driven by higher average ticket sizes and continued strength in managed care customers, partially offset by lower self-pay customer traffic.
EYE continues pivoting toward higher-value customer cohorts, including insured shoppers, progressive lens buyers, and customers bringing in outside prescriptions. As part of that strategy, the company is upgrading its assortment and improving revenue quality through premium offerings. In May, EYE launched a pilot rollout of Nikon Eyes branded lenses, and beginning in June it plans to add premium frame brands at America's Best, including Tory Burch and Polo Ralph Lauren.
Q2 comps are currently tracking in the low single-digits due primarily to the re-platforming of the America's Best website. Management characterized the website disruption as temporary and said traffic trends are already improving sequentially as the quarter progresses.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

Overall, the modest revenue miss, softer traffic trends among self-pay customers, and disruption tied to the America's Best website re-platforming appear to be weighing on investor sentiment today. The website issue is particularly important because roughly half of America's Best eye exams are booked online, making any traffic interruption meaningful. We also question whether EYE's move further upscale is the right long-term strategy for the America's Best banner. The brand has historically been associated with affordable exams and glasses, but management is increasingly emphasizing premium lenses, branded frames, and higher-income customer cohorts. While that could improve margins and revenue quality over time, it risks alienating some of the value-oriented customers that built the brand.

Tower Semi Powers Higher as Record Q2 Guide and SiPho Commitments Add Visibility (TSEM)

Tower Semi (TSEM) is powering sharply higher after reporting its Q1 results this morning. The company beat EPS expectations, while revenue increased 15.5% yr/yr to $413.6 mln. The bigger drivers appear to be its Q2 guidance for revenue of $455 mln +/- 5%, which implies 10% sequential growth at the midpoint and would mark a company record, along with new SiPho customer commitments representing $1.3 bln of contracted 2027 revenue tied to next-generation AI data-center architectures.

TSEM's growth was led by silicon photonics, with revenue growing 3x yr/yr, but strength was broad across the portfolio. All major offerings grew, with imagers up 9%, RF SOI up 12%, power management up 10%, and silicon germanium up 24%. The mix also shifted meaningfully toward RF Infrastructure, which increased to 38% of revenue from 22%.
The demand read remains encouraging, particularly around AI data-center connectivity. TSEM continues to ramp 200G products for multiple customers and is already seeing strong demand for near-packaged optics products in 2027. It also said its SiGe platform is seeing unprecedented demand for optical transceiver components and active copper cables.
In addition to its 2027 commitments, TSEM said it has an even larger contractual wafer commitment for 2028, with additional prepayments due by January 2027, and noted that these initial reservations do not represent full demand from those customers or include shipments to its broader base of 50+ active SiPho customers.
Gross profit increased 52% yr/yr to $111 mln, operating profit rose 96% yr/yr to $65 mln, and net margin expanded to 16% from 11% last year. TSEM also reaffirmed its target for sequential revenue and margin growth throughout 2026.
TSEM is investing heavily to support increasing SiPho and SiGe demand. Its $920 mln investment plan remains on track, supporting its target to expand SiPho capacity 5x by year-end.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight

This was an encouraging report from TSEM, reinforcing that its silicon photonics and silicon germanium platforms are benefiting from AI data-center connectivity demand. While the Q1 results were strong, the bigger drivers appear to be the record Q2 revenue guide and SiPho customer commitments representing $1.3 bln of 2027 revenue, which provide strong visibility and support TSEM's growing role in next-generation AI data-center architectures. The demand read was also encouraging, with silicon photonics leading the quarter and all major offerings growing. The sharp move to multi-decade highs raises the bar, particularly around capacity plans and the SiPho ramp, but the report strengthens TSEM's growth story by pairing near-term acceleration with longer-term demand visibility.

Birkenstock Steps Lower as Macro Pressures Weigh on Earnings Despite Continued Growth (BIRK)

Birkenstock (BIRK) is trading lower after reporting its Q2 (Mar) results this morning. The company missed EPS expectations as it grapples with tariff pressure, inflation, and a softer consumer discretionary backdrop, while revenue increased 7.7% yr/yr, or 14% CC, to €618.3 mln, roughly in line with expectations. BIRK also reaffirmed its FY26 outlook for EPS of €1.90-2.05 and 13-15% revenue growth in CC.

BIRK saw broad strength, reporting double-digit CC growth across all of its segments, with particular strength in APAC, which grew at more than twice the pace of its other regions. Americas revenue increased 4% reported and 14% CC, EMEA grew 10% reported and 11% CC, and APAC grew 22% reported and 30% CC.
While that showcases BIRK's resilience and brand strength, macro headwinds are weighing. BIRK said the conflict in the Middle East is disrupting supply chains and adding to inflationary pressures on consumer wallets. The conflict negatively impacted EMEA growth by an estimated 300 bps, split between shipment disruptions and softer consumer sentiment in Europe.
Adjusted gross margin declined 310 bps yr/yr to 54.6%. Unfavorable currency translation accounted for roughly 230 bps of pressure, while incremental U.S. tariffs added another 90 bps. BIRK also said the Supreme Court ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs has temporarily increased its tariff exposure.
BIRK also reaffirmed its three-year plan calling for 13-15% annual revenue growth in CC and a 30%+ adjusted EBITDA margin. BIRK continues to see strength in its white-space opportunities, with closed-toe penetration up 300 bps, own retail growing more than 60% CC, and full-price sell-through remaining above 90%.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight

The decline in shares appears to be more of a reflection of BIRK's current operating environment than a clear deterioration in demand. BIRK still delivered growth within its targeted range and reaffirmed its FY26 guidance and three-year targets, which suggests the brand remains resilient despite a tougher backdrop. Demand indicators also remained encouraging, with strong full-price sell-through, continued white-space opportunity in closed-toe and own retail, and APAC growing at an impressive pace. That said, the near-term picture is not clean enough to support shares. Elevated inflation and higher energy costs are weighing on consumer wallets, while the Middle East conflict pressured EMEA through shipment delays and softer consumer sentiment in Europe. That raises some concern around lingering logistics disruption and the timing of recovery. Overall, BIRK still looks like a strong brand story, but investors may want to see cleaner margin execution and less external pressure.

Nextpower Powers Up After Record Backlog and Data Center Push (NXT)

NXT Nextpower (NXT +12%) is powering sharply higher after wrapping up FY26 on a strong note. This supplier of technology for large solar power plants that allows solar panels to follow the sun during the day posted strong upside with its Q4 (Mar) report. Revenue fell 4.7% yr/yr to $880.5 mln, but that was much better than analyst expectations. Also, on a full year basis, FY26 revenue jumped 20% to a record $3.56 bln with record backlog over $5.25 bln.

Demand remains healthy with strong bookings momentum supported by a flight to quality across its customer base. NXT reported one of the highest booking quarters in company history and exited FY26 with record backlog.
Management said global electricity demand is undergoing structural changes driven by data centers, electrification, and industrial growth, creating unprecedented demand for new generation capacity.
NXT described FY26 as a defining inflection point as it evolves from a solar tracker leader into an integrated utility-scale energy technology platform. Adoption is increasing across eBOS, foundations, robotics, and newer offerings such as NX PowerMerge.
NXT also announced it will acquire Zigor Corp's power conversion business and its US-based subsidiary, Apex Power, for $80.5 mln.
The acquisition expands NXT into utility-scale power conversion, battery energy storage, and data center markets while rounding out its integrated platform strategy with inverter offerings.
Management said initial customer demand tied to the acquisition has been promising as NXT builds out its US manufacturing footprint.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

Overall, the results and guidance were strong, and management struck a notably bullish tone on the earnings call. NXT's core tracker business continues to perform well and benefited from one of the strongest booking quarters in company history. However, we think the acquisition of Zigor's power conversion business and Apex Power is just as responsible for today's rally because investors are highly rewarding companies with expanding exposure to data centers and power infrastructure. The deal meaningfully broadens NXT's platform strategy by adding solar, storage, and data center power conversion capabilities, positioning the company to capitalize on accelerating electricity demand trends tied to AI and electrification.

Dynatrace slides despite Q4 beat and upside guidance as ARR outlook underwhelms (DT)
Dynatrace (DT) is plunging lower following its Q4 earnings report and FY27 guidance, despite delivering upside results and guidance slightly ahead of expectations. Q4 adjusted EPS rose to $0.41, beating estimates by $0.02, while revenue increased 19.4% yr/yr to $531.7 mln. The company also guided FY27 EPS and revenue above consensus while forecasting ARR growth of 15.5-16.5%.

Enterprise momentum remained strong, with a record 22 deals above $1 mln ACV, including 9 new-logo seven-figure wins. Management cited growing demand for observability vendor consolidation as AI workloads increase infrastructure complexity.
ARR growth held steady at 16% for the fourth straight quarter, while DPS adoption expanded to over 75% of ARR. Gross retention remained in the mid-90% range and NRR held at 110%.
AI adoption trends continued to strengthen, with over 850 customers using Dynatrace to monitor AI and LLM workloads and more than 500 deploying agentic AI capabilities. Log management consumption grew more than 100% yr/yr and surpassed $100 mln in annualized consumption.
Profitability and cash flow generation remained strong, with FY26 operating margin reaching 29% and free cash flow totaling $529 mln, or 26% of revenue. The company also repurchased $479 mln of stock during FY26.
FY27 guidance topped expectations, but investors likely wanted stronger ARR acceleration given management's bullish AI commentary. DT also expects a temporary gross margin headwind from higher cloud hosting costs tied to elevated platform consumption.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight

DT delivered another strong quarter operationally, highlighted by upside earnings, robust enterprise deal activity, accelerating AI adoption, and continued strength in logs and platform consumption. The company appears to be benefiting from growing enterprise demand for vendor consolidation and unified observability platforms as AI workloads increase infrastructure complexity. Large-deal momentum was particularly impressive, with record seven-figure contract wins and expanding traction among enterprise customers adopting DPS licensing. However, despite the strong execution and above-consensus FY27 guidance, the stock is trading sharply lower as investors likely expected a more meaningful acceleration in ARR growth and net expansion trends given management's bullish AI commentary. Even so, DT continues to position itself as a key observability and AI operations platform, with Grail, Davis AI, and growing agentic AI adoption providing potentially durable long-term growth drivers.

[Return to Sender] BPNDX/BPSOX Market Breadth and Momentum Indicators: [graphic]

Return to Sender — 5/13/2026 9:53:29 PM

BPNDX/BPSOX Market Breadth and Momentum Indicators:

[Return to Sender] We are already seeing some signs that there will be profit taking soon. BPNDX is...

Return to Sender — 5/13/2026 9:47:23 PM

We are already seeing some signs that there will be profit taking soon. BPNDX is falling. The number of New Lows is expanding. BPSOX hit 30, pulled back to 22, rose back to 25 today.

Reports come out from AMAT and NVMI tomorrow. That might help in the short term but a week from now the big report comes out from NVDA. Post NVDA? Not enough reports to keep the market advancing.

When does MU report its next quarter Sam?

What was the immediate reaction to MU's earnings last quarter?

I can tell you that when I drive by the HUGE FAB expansion heading east on I-84 in Boise that there will be a day when MU is seeing chip prices fall. When that happens? I have no idea.

But it will happen.

RtS

[Return to Sender] All 30 SOX Components Remain Over their 200 Day SMA's: Mon Tues Wed ADI ADI AD...

Return to Sender — 5/13/2026 9:37:06 PM

All 30 SOX Components Remain Over their 200 Day SMA's:

Mon	Tues	Wed
ADI	ADI	ADI
ALAB	ALAB	ALAB
AMAT	AMAT	AMAT
AMD	AMD	AMD
ARM	ARM	ARM
ASML	ASML	ASML
AVGO	AVGO	AVGO
COHR	COHR	COHR
CRDO	CRDO	CRDO
ENTG	ENTG	ENTG
GFS	GFS	GFS
INTC	INTC	INTC
KLAC	KLAC	KLAC
LRCX	LRCX	LRCX
MCHP	MCHP	MCHP
MPWR	MPWR	MPWR
MRVL	MRVL	MRVL
MTSI	MTSI	MTSI
MU	MU	MU
NVDA	NVDA	NVDA
NVMI	NVMI	NVMI
NXPI	NXPI	NXPI
ON	ON	ON
QCOM	QCOM	QCOM
QRVO	QRVO	QRVO
RMBS	RMBS	RMBS
SWKS	SWKS	SWKS
TER	TER	TER
TSM	TSM	TSM
TXN	TXN	TXN

[Return to Sender] All 30 SOX Components Remain Over their 50 Day SMA's: Mon Tues Wed ADI ADI ADI...

Return to Sender — 5/13/2026 9:33:16 PM

All 30 SOX Components Remain Over their 50 Day SMA's:

Mon	Tues	Wed
ADI	ADI	ADI
ALAB	ALAB	ALAB
AMAT	AMAT	AMAT
AMD	AMD	AMD
ARM	ARM	ARM
ASML	ASML	ASML
AVGO	AVGO	AVGO
COHR	COHR	COHR
CRDO	CRDO	CRDO
ENTG	ENTG	ENTG
GFS	GFS	GFS
INTC	INTC	INTC
KLAC	KLAC	KLAC
LRCX	LRCX	LRCX
MCHP	MCHP	MCHP
MPWR	MPWR	MPWR
MRVL	MRVL	MRVL
MTSI	MTSI	MTSI
MU	MU	MU
NVDA	NVDA	NVDA
NVMI	NVMI	NVMI
NXPI	NXPI	NXPI
ON	ON	ON
QCOM	QCOM	QCOM
QRVO	QRVO	QRVO
RMBS	RMBS	RMBS
SWKS	SWKS	SWKS
TER	TER	TER
TSM	TSM	TSM
TXN	TXN	TXN

[Return to Sender] 7 New 52 Week Lows on the NDX Today: Mon Tues Wed CHTR CHTR CHTR CSGP CTSH CSG...

Return to Sender — 5/13/2026 9:29:45 PM

7 New 52 Week Lows on the NDX Today:

Mon	Tues	Wed
CHTR	CHTR	CHTR
CSGP	CTSH	CSGP
CTAS		CTAS
CTSH		CTSH
ISRG		MELI
MELI		ROP
		VRSK

[Return to Sender] 14 New 52 Week Highs on the NDX Today: New Highs: Mon Tues Wed AAPL AAPL AAPL...

Return to Sender — 5/13/2026 9:27:22 PM

14 New 52 Week Highs on the NDX Today:

New Highs:

Mon	Tues	Wed
AAPL	AAPL	AAPL
ADI	CSCO	ADI
AMAT	FTNT	ASML
AMD	NVDA	CRWD
ASML		CSCO
CSCO		DDOG
FTNT		FTNT
GOOGL		GOOGL
INTC		MPWR
MCHP		MRVL
MNST		NVDA
MU		PANW
NVDA		SBUX
QCOM		TXN
SNDK
STX

[Return to Sender] BPSOX Rose 3 to 25 PnF Buy Signals - [MPWR MRVL RMBS added] Mon Tues Wed ADI A...

Return to Sender — 5/13/2026 9:19:44 PM

BPSOX Rose 3 to 25 PnF Buy Signals - [MPWR MRVL RMBS added]

Mon	Tues	Wed
ADI	ADI	ADI
ALAB	ALAB	ALAB
AMAT	AMAT	AMAT
AMD	AMD	AMD
ARM	ARM	ARM
ASML	ASML	ASML
AVGO	AVGO	AVGO
COHR	COHR	COHR
CRDO	CRDO	CRDO
ENTG	INTC	INTC
GFS	KLAC	KLAC
INTC	MCHP	MCHP
KLAC	MTSI	MPWR
LRCX	MU	MRVL
MCHP	NVDA	MTSI
MPWR	NXPI	MU
MRVL	ON	NVDA
MTSI	QCOM	NXPI
MU	QRVO	ON
NVDA	SWKS	QCOM
NVMI	TSM	QRVO
NXPI	TXN	RMBS
ON		SWKS
QCOM		TSM
QRVO		TXN
RMBS
SWKS
TER
TSM
TXN