Silicon Investor - Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting

[MrGozer] My guess is we no longer have a moderator on this page. If that's the case, can ...

MrGozer — 9/13/2026 6:53:54 PM

My guess is we no longer have a moderator on this page.
If that's the case, can we have the down arrow back.
Yeah, that's a political post.

[matherandlowell] Agree. We have a potential problem. How might political instability impact the...

matherandlowell — 9/13/2026 5:38:14 PM

Agree. We have a potential problem.

How might political instability impact the market in general? Qualcomm in particular?

This essay doesn't discuss Qualcomm per se but does raise the possibility that the election process may introduce a real challenge to our political system.

Everyone might take a moment to review Luttig's background.

j.

September 12, 2026

Heather Cox Richardson

Sep 12

READ IN APP

On Thursday, in The New Republic, conservative judge J. Michael Luttig published a dire warning to the Republican Party…and to all Americans. In the piece, Luttig outlined how Republicans could refuse to seat elected Democrats in January after a Democratic victory in the 2026 midterm elections of November. “The coming crisis,” the piece says, would be “The Final Battle for America’s Democracy.”

Luttig spelled out that Trump is fighting a war against America’s democracy. While the refusal of Vice President Mike Pence to assist his power grab made it fail in January 2021, Luttig notes, today Trump and his Republican congressional allies are more determined than ever to take over the country.

Luttig focuses on the ability of House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to prevent the recognition of duly-elected Democratic representatives on January 3. Johnson has the power, Luttig says, to remove the current House clerk, Kevin McCumber, and replace him temporarily with a MAGA loyalist who will refuse to list Democrats on the roll of those elected to the 120th Congress.

In this scenario, once Democrats are eliminated, they will have to get a federal court to order the temporary clerk to list their names. If a court does so, another crisis point will arrive if the clerk simply refuses to obey the order. Then it’s possible the courts will stay out of the fight until the 120th Congress formally convenes and the Republicans vote not to seat the Democrats. That vote would be reviewable by the courts, including the Supreme Court.

But that review would take weeks, if not months, paralyzing the United States and leaving the country “helplessly vulnerable to all the world’s evil, as it would have been in January 2021 had Mike Pence not thwarted Donald Trump’s plan to overturn the 2020 presidential election.” And at that point, how would the current Supreme Court answer the question: “Is the United States of America a democracy, in which ‘We the People’ elect our representatives to the Congress and to the presidency, or is it not?”

As if to illustrate Luttig’s warning, House speaker Johnson told attendees at Trump’s convention in Dallas on Thursday: “We cannot and will not allow them to take the majority in the Congress. We’re not gonna do it.”Indeed, in his warning, Luttig did not single out Democrats to protect democracy; as he noted in a piece on his Substack in August, plenty of people are already fighting. He called out Republicans.

“There was a time not long ago when virtually every member of Congress could be expected to commit to the peaceful transfer of congressional power in advance of an election,” Luttig wrote. But now, “n a damning indictment of the president and today’s congressional Republicans, it would be hard to find even one congressional Republican with the integrity, sense of duty to country, honor, and courage to put America above the Republican Party, let alone above Donald Trump.”

He urged Republicans “to decide that they are not going to betray their oaths and their country one last time for Donald Trump,” and to make it clear to Trump and Johnson that they will not participate in any unconstitutional plan to deny Democrats seats in the new Congress.

He warned them that should Republicans go along with such machinations and the Supreme Court overrule them, the Republican Party “would finally meet the fate to which it has been destined since January 6, 2021, and cement its place in history as the most corrupt political party ever to emerge in the United States of America for its second attempt in six years to defy the will of the American people on Election Day.”

“The writing is already on the wall, Republicans,” the conservative jurist wrote. “The Republican Party in particular must finally loose the chains of its political and moral enslavement to Donald Trump and separate itself from the MAGA political party cult.”

Today, in Ireland, where he traveled for the Irish Open at his golf club in Doonbeg, Trump told reporters: “We had a rigged election. As you know, it was totally rigged. Because I won three times. I didn’t win twice. I won three times.”

(Heather Cox Richardson's essays are on substack.)

[sbfm] EU iPhone 18 Pro Max Keeps C2 Modem Chip share.google ("European iPhone 18 Pro ...

sbfm — 9/13/2026 4:13:25 PM

EU iPhone 18 Pro Max Keeps C2 Modem Chip share.google

("European iPhone 18 Pro Max models do feature the C2 modem, leaving the US version as the single regional variant relying on Qualcomm hardware. . .Apple has since updated its tech spec pages across the EU to fix what turned out to be a simple listing error. The corrected documentation confirms that both the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max carry the C2 modem across European markets, as Nicolas Lellouche from Numerama notes. . . .The real hardware split remains isolated to the US
While European consumers can expect Apple’s custom silicon inside their devices, the clarification highlights a very real hardware divide on the other side of the Atlantic. Updated spec sheets for the United States confirm that the American version of the iPhone 18 Pro Max remains the sole variant globally that skips the C2 chip in favor of a Qualcomm modem. . . .The regional difference is due to Apple’s multi-year supply agreement with Qualcomm, industry analysts suggest. Apple is using Qualcomm silicon only in the US version of its biggest phone. This allows it to meet its contract volume requirements while also rolling out its own C2 chip in European versions, international models, and the $1,999 foldable iPhone Duo. . . .However, this distinction leaves American buyers at a slight disadvantage compared to their European counterparts. Raw cellular speeds remain comparable on modern 5G networks, but Qualcomm hardware cannot run Apple’s native “Limit Precise Location” feature. European iPhone 18 Pro Max owners will benefit from reduced modem power consumption and enhanced carrier privacy controls. On the other hand, US buyers miss out on those custom-silicon perks.")

[waitwatchwander] Amazon Web Services has suffered numerous outages. share.google

waitwatchwander — 9/13/2026 4:10:12 PM

[mk511] The Economist has a piece this week arguing that the war has not, a likely will ...

mk511 — 9/13/2026 2:06:56 PM

The Economist has a piece this week arguing that the war has not, a likely will not, disrupted the data center initiatives currently underway in several Gulf countries. I hope they’re right.

[Optntrdr1999] Thank you for your insights - but what they do is working imho

Optntrdr1999 — 9/12/2026 7:12:08 PM

[Elroy] if you dont use stock based compenation - you have to use "real compensation" ...

Elroy — 9/12/2026 5:23:33 PM

if you dont use stock based compenation - you have to use "real compensation"

If you believe QCOM is a good investment then you'd rather pay QCOM employees an extra $20,000 in cash each year rather than pay them the same $20,000 in QCOM stock awards.

Cash depreciates with inflation. QCOM is supposed to go up each year because, well, you know, sales and earnings growth. If you like QCOM stock the stock is precious and the cash is just, well, cash.

[Optntrdr1999] if you dont use stock based compenation - you have to use "real compensation" wh...

Optntrdr1999 — 9/12/2026 3:33:47 PM

if you dont use stock based compenation - you have to use "real compensation" which reduces EPS - and is not eligible to be added back for non gaap measures - which reduces EPS -

[waitwatchwander] At the recent Leap Conference in Saudi, Humain showed videos of clearing land fo...

waitwatchwander — 9/12/2026 10:43:38 AM

At the recent Leap Conference in Saudi, Humain showed videos of clearing land for their first data center so I expect it's still aways off from being loaded up with equipment.

OT: If Trump would only stop his ultimatums and retaliatory actions life could return back to a more normal state of affairs. Aggression begets aggression. Diplomacy of any kind isn't a card within Trump's deck.

Greater force may finally be arising ...

BRICS agrees to joint declaration in test of unity - reuters.com

[sbfm] Then, we have a potential problem. apnews.com

sbfm — 9/12/2026 9:05:50 AM

[Elroy] Our base salaries are not as competitive as FANG. QCOM's competitors for employ...

Elroy — 9/12/2026 8:54:00 AM

Our base salaries are not as competitive as FANG.

QCOM's competitors for employees is more like TXN, ADI, SWKS, QRVO, etc. Large semi companies that have been around for decades.

FANG salaries are not the fair comparison. Those guys are working on leading edge semiconductors in relatively new areas (AI data center stuff).

[Elroy] how do you propose to keep,reward top people? Salaries and benefits. Stock aw...

Elroy — 9/12/2026 8:49:16 AM

how do you propose to keep,reward top people?

Salaries and benefits.

Stock awards are for startups that don't have cash and recruit workers with equity. Giving each employee stock options/grants isn't necessary in an established huge company like QCOM. If some engineer wants more upside he's going to go to a promising startup regardless of whether QCOM gave him $XX,000 per year in stock awards, or not.

Most large established firms do not give equity awards to employees, why do large established tech firms need to do so? Employees at this type of firm are generally career people happy to have a stable job.

[co.engineer] I can guarantee you, I would not. Our base salaries are not as competitive as FA...

co.engineer — 9/12/2026 8:33:53 AM

I can guarantee you, I would not. Our base salaries are not as competitive as FANG. We lose employees all of the time based on compensation. Particularly those who are lower titled, who don't get the larger stock grants for performance that higher titled high performers get.

[waitwatchwander] Riyahd, Qualcomm has opened an office there too.

waitwatchwander — 9/12/2026 8:13:10 AM

[sbfm] Are the Humain physical assets (data centers) supposed to be in Saudi Arabia?

sbfm — 9/12/2026 7:58:48 AM

[Dr. John] QCOM: employee issuance vs. buybacks Fiscal yearShares issuedShares repurchase...

Dr. John — 9/11/2026 6:27:22 PM

QCOM: employee issuance vs. buybacks

Fiscal yearShares issuedShares repurchasedNet reductionNet effect on shares

2021	18M	24M	-6M	-0.5%
2022	17M	21M	-4M	-0.4%
2023	18M	25M	-7M	-0.6%
2024	24M	25M	-1M	-0.1%
2025	17M	56M	-39M	-3.5%
2021–25 total	94M	151M	-57M	~ -5.1%

[Dr. John] could not resit so asked Chat GPT, it is substantial. If by “stock options t...

Dr. John — 9/11/2026 6:25:16 PM

could not resit so asked Chat GPT, it is substantial.
If by “stock options to employees” you mean employee equity awards that could eventually become QCOM shares, the amount is quite small relative to Qualcomm’s total share count.

The latest detailed Qualcomm disclosures show:

QCOM shares outstanding: about 1.074 billion as of September 28, 2025.
Employee RSUs outstanding: about 28 million.
Qualcomm also had other outstanding equity awards, bringing the total shares subject to outstanding equity awards to approximately 31 million.
Importantly, Qualcomm says it no longer currently grants new stock options; employee equity compensation is predominantly RSUs.

So what percentage is this? Using 31 million potential shares:

31M ÷ 1,074M = ~2.9%

So outstanding employee equity awards represent roughly 3% of QCOM's existing shares outstanding.

But there is an important distinction:

QCOM share categoryApprox. shares% of existing shares

Shares currently outstanding	1.074B	100%
Unvested employee RSUs	~28M	2.6%
Total outstanding equity awards	~31M	~2.9%
Shares reserved for future awards	~81M	~7.5%

The 81 million reserved shares are not employee-owned options and shouldn't be treated as immediate dilution. They are shares Qualcomm has authorized for future equity awards.

More importantly: dilution is actually quite modest Qualcomm's 2025 diluted EPS calculation included only about 9 million incremental dilutive shares, because the treasury-stock method accounts for the fact that employees effectively pay taxes/exercise prices and Qualcomm withholds shares.

And Qualcomm issued 17 million shares during FY2025 while repurchasing 56 million, so buybacks substantially exceeded equity-related issuance.

Bottom line: I would not view employee stock compensation as a major source of QCOM dilution. The ~28M unvested RSUs are about 2.6% of shares outstanding, and the broader pool of outstanding equity awards is around 3%.

If you're asking because you're evaluating QCOM's long-term EPS growth, I can also calculate QCOM's actual annual dilution from employee stock compensation versus its buybacks over 2015–2026. That is much more revealing than simply looking at the current 3% figure.

[Dr. John] So Elroy, how do you propose to keep,reward top people? I have no idea how much...

Dr. John — 9/11/2026 6:18:56 PM

So Elroy, how do you propose to keep,reward top people? I have no idea how much stock options to employees make up of the total float. Is it more than 1%? I would be surprised it's more than 0.25%

[Elroy] not true What's not true? I suggested QCOM stop giving stock away to employees...

Elroy — 9/11/2026 5:43:26 PM

not true

What's not true? I suggested QCOM stop giving stock away to employees and use the buyback to reduce the shares outstanding. It would help the stock price more than giving stock to employees and using the buyback to offset dilution. What I wrote is my opinion on how reducing the sharecount will cause the share price to go higher compared to the current plan.

It's my opinion, and it's true!

[Optntrdr1999] not true - stock based comp is an adjustment for non gaap earnings -

Optntrdr1999 — 9/11/2026 5:33:34 PM

[Elroy] If QCOM would halt all equity to employee compensation and use buybacks to reduc...

Elroy — 9/11/2026 5:26:12 PM

If QCOM would halt all equity to employee compensation and use buybacks to reduce the float (and thereby juice EPS growth) the stock would rocket.

QCOM employees will work for their salaries, they don't need stock.

[Optntrdr1999] I really wish they were far more aggressive in buybacks when the stock was 125-1...

Optntrdr1999 — 9/11/2026 5:24:39 PM

I really wish they were far more aggressive in buybacks when the stock was 125-155 - there really was not reason not to be

[waitwatchwander] Fab nodes reduction is becoming a mature effort. It is packaging of stacked die...

waitwatchwander — 9/11/2026 4:48:14 PM

Fab nodes reduction is becoming a mature effort. It is packaging of stacked dies with an ever increasing plethora of TSVs that matter today.

They're all doing 2nm logic dies and it's pricing is likely peaking. Co-Packaged Optics is another area that's coming into play.

Whenever anything is noted as getting pricey, it's less likely to be that way going forward.

[waitwatchwander] Qualcomm needs to address the GAAP verses non GAAP difference if the stock price...

waitwatchwander — 9/11/2026 4:34:05 PM

Qualcomm needs to address the GAAP verses non GAAP difference if the stock price is to climb.

Once they've acquired all that they need in new product expertise that's where cash flow needs to be directed. We don't want to get into another runaway state of an ever increasing number of outstanding shares. This time around, product development execution along with cost control and share count management is what needs to be different.

As with cdma, the macro picture is less important in creating a dominant position based upon innovation and hopefully, selling of vested shares by the innovation builders won't be as impactful either, this time around.

[Dr. John] Conjecture, yes; but also qualifies as speculation in my layperson's reading.

Dr. John — 9/11/2026 4:08:44 PM

[GR8FORM] Conjecture: Samsung Reportedly Passes Technical Hurdles For Manufacturing Qualco...

GR8FORM — 9/11/2026 3:52:02 PM

Conjecture: Samsung Reportedly Passes Technical Hurdles For Manufacturing Qualcomm’s 2nm Chips, But Company Hits A New And Different Snag; Price Agreements

Samsung Reportedly Passes Technical Hurdles For Manufacturing Qualcomm’s 2nm Chips, But Company Hits A New And Different Snag; Price Agreements
Omar SohailSep 11, 2026 at 06:12am EDT

Previously, Samsung couldn't win chip manufacturing contracts from Qualcomm due to insufficient yields / Image made using GeminiQualcomm was already facing a torrent of struggles with its declining chipset business due to the DRAM crisis, and to make matters worse, it’s going to pay TSMC a hefty sum for utilizing its 2nm lithography for the upcoming Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro and Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6. The only solace for the company to reduce its manufacturing costs is teaming up with Samsung, but the latest report states that both entities have failed to enter into an agreement due to pricing differences.

Exynos 2700 is proof that Samsung has stabilized its advanced 2nm yields, but cannot catch a break with QualcommOn previous occasions, Qualcomm was forced to enter into exclusive ties with TSMC and not adopt a dual-sourcing approach involving Samsung because of the latter’s failure to improve its yields. Now, The Bell reports that the technical hurdles revolving around the Korean giant’s 2nm SF2 and 2nm SF2P nodes have been scaled, hinting that mass production for other customers is commercially viable.

Unfortunately, given that Samsung has raised advanced chipmaking and service prices by 15 percent due to exceptionally high demand, it’s likely that the company and Qualcomm had a falling out when agreeing to a particular price for mass manufacturing 2nm chipsets. Then again, the cutting-edge lithography isn’t cheap, not to mention the ludicrously expensive equipment, such as High-NA EUV machinery that needs to be sourced from Dutch firm ASML.

According to the report, Qualcomm is demanding a price reduction, but Samsung doesn’t appear to comply because sources familiar with the matter have stated that the current production volume isn’t large enough for the Korean technology behemoth to give its potential customer a discount. Also, even if an agreement were inked, it would take several months for a legally binding contract to form, and with TSMC having already accepted the initial order, Qualcomm may only be keeping Samsung as a backup option.

It’s highly possible that the lower production volume of Qualcomm’s 2nm SoCs stems from reduced demand for the silicon due to the ongoing memory shortage. The San Diego company’s clients have likely taken a step back in adopting the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro and Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 to reduce their DRAM and NAND flash component costs. A previous rumor stated that Qualcomm will have a stacked chipset lineup for this year and next, including both 2nm and 3nm SoCs.

Qualcomm is probably aware that its 2nm products will be adopted at a lower volume, forcing the company to retain SoCs like the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 and sell them at a lower price to keep the revenue ball rolling. Then again, since we cannot verify the report, it’s possible that Samsung’s subpar yields prevented Qualcomm from forming a partnership, so it’s important to treat these details with a pinch of salt until we get to the bottom of what happened.

News Source: The Bell

About the author: Omar Sohail is a reporter and analyst for Wccftech's mobile section, specializing in the technology and business of the mobile industry. His expertise lies in the intricate hardware supply chain, covering developments in semiconductor manufacturing, chip lithography, and camera sensor technology.

Follow Wccftech on Googleto get more of our news coverage in your feeds.

wccftech.com

[Optntrdr1999] they have dedicated 2nm allocation from TSMC - and an expanded deal with Samsung...

Optntrdr1999 — 9/11/2026 3:23:50 PM

they have dedicated 2nm allocation from TSMC - and an expanded deal with Samsung for 2nm - plus ldppr5/6/7 memory - where are they getting boxed out??

[Art Bechhoefer] The real question is whether QCOM can get its chips and related components at a ...

Art Bechhoefer — 9/11/2026 2:59:16 PM

The real question is whether QCOM can get its chips and related components at a reasonable price, and delivered on time. Or are other companies getting preferred treatment?

Art

[Optntrdr1999] qcom is touting 18 in EPS in 2029 - close enough to a double in 3 years - and li...

Optntrdr1999 — 9/11/2026 2:45:32 PM

qcom is touting 18 in EPS in 2029 - close enough to a double in 3 years - and likely a very conservative number - knowing how they guide

[Art Bechhoefer] Doubling non-GAAP earnings per share in 5 years is reasonable, and probably on t...

Art Bechhoefer — 9/11/2026 2:33:42 PM

Doubling non-GAAP earnings per share in 5 years is reasonable, and probably on the conservative side. But most projections do not take into account the risk of a worldwide slowdown in economic growth brought on by the war in Iran and the impact of tariffs, which act as a tax and could affect consumer purchasing of non-essential items (e.g., new smartphones).

Put another way, when a nation is already increasing public debt at the highest rate since World War II, (payable in the future, if ever), the inevitable result is higher debt service costs or more inflation, or both.

Art

[voop] Why agentic AI needs a completely different mobile architecture: the Qualcomm He...

voop — 9/11/2026 2:15:28 PM

Why agentic AI needs a completely different mobile architecture: the Qualcomm Hexagon NPU

Written by
Vinesh Sukumar

Sep 10, 2026
5 min read

What you should know:

Agentic AI demands a fundamentally different mobile architecture — one built around specialized models routed by task and context rather than a single massive model — and the foundation for it has to be designed in from the start.
Our new Qualcomm Hexagon NPU is built for that shift, led by two moves that matter — a transformer-focused Element Accelerator and a 50% larger shared memory that keeps frequently accessed model data close to the NPU — so agents stay responsive as they juggle longer context, more tools and concurrent tasks.
We designed it to run that experience on device: Mixture-of-Experts models that activate a fraction of their parameters per token, a broad INT2–FP16 precision range, and up to 50% faster prefill for INT4 models — bringing responsive, private generative AI to the phone.

The next era of mobile computing will be defined by agents: intelligent systems that understand personal context, operate across applications, reason continuously and take action on your behalf.

As AI becomes more agentic, the winning architecture will not be one massive model handling every task. It will be a system of specialized models, routed intelligently based on the task, the context and the user.

That shift demands more than faster AI inference. It requires a new architecture built for persistent, multimodal, low-latency intelligence. With our next-generation premium mobile platform, Qualcomm Technologies is introducing that foundation, led by the new Qualcomm Hexagon NPU and two standout features: the new Element Accelerator and a much larger shared memory system.

The Element Accelerator is purpose-built for the transformer workloads that power modern generative and agentic AI. Together with the scalar, vector and matrix extensions, it accelerates the operations that matter most for large models, helping agents respond faster, reason more efficiently and deliver richer experiences without compromising mobile power efficiency.

Just as important, our Hexagon NPU significantly expands its large shared memory. A 50% larger NPU memory subsystem allows more model state, activations and intermediate tensors to remain on-chip, minimizing trips to DDR. This reduces memory bottlenecks and delivers faster, more responsive agentic AI experiences.

"With our next-generation premium mobile platform, Qualcomm Technologies is introducing that foundation, led by the new Qualcomm Hexagon NPU and two standout features: the new Element Accelerator and a much larger shared memory system."

Together, these innovations define the role of the next-generation Hexagon NPU: running more of the agentic AI experience directly on device. The Element Accelerator, vector, matrix and scalar extensions, and larger shared memory work as a collective architecture, helping the NPU accelerate transformer workloads and bring blazing fast agentic experiences to the device.

What the Hexagon NPU deliversFor agents, performance is about keeping intelligence responsive, contextual and efficient across multiple tasks. The Hexagon NPU is designed for always-running AI, long-context reasoning, multimodal models, concurrent agents and low-latency action loops.

Expanded NPU memory capacity allows more model data, activations and intermediate tensors to remain local to the processor, reducing trips to external memory and helping agents answer, revise, plan and act with less waiting. That means richer context windows, faster token generation and a smoother experience as agents move between tools and tasks.

The Element Accelerator further improves performance on the transformer operations that matter most for generative and agentic AI, while vector extensions help drive high-throughput AI math and scalar extensions to support the decision logic, routing and orchestration that agents increasingly require.

Running larger models with less memory bandwidthThe Hexagon NPU is also built for the next generation of model architectures. Qualcomm Technologies is partnering with leading memory and model providers to incorporate a new generation of on-device AI architectures built around Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models. A 30B-parameter MoE can keep tens of billions of parameters available while activating only about 3B routed parameters for each token generation step on the NPU.

Unlike dense models, which require a much larger portion of the network to participate in every inference step, MoE dynamically selects specialized experts based on the input, reducing active compute and memory bandwidth demands. Combined with intelligent flash-to-memory expert management and caching techniques, this approach enables larger-model-class AI experiences with low power consumption and memory requirements, bringing responsive, private generative AI to phones. MoE models selectively activate specialized expert networks, improving efficiency and quality without invoking an entire model for

[Dr. John] Heard on Bloomberg. Microsoft targets 38GW of data center capacity in 2032 ...

Dr. John — 9/11/2026 1:52:42 PM

Heard on Bloomberg.
Microsoft targets 38GW of data center capacity in 2032 - report
Currently operates ~12GW

September 11, 2026 By Georgia Butler Have your say

Microsoft is planning to more than triple its data center capacity over the next five years.

As reported by Bloomberg and citing people "familiar with the plans," the cloud company is targeting 38GW of capacity in 2032. It currently operates around 12GW of data center capacity.

– Microsoft

This will comprise a combination of self-owned and operated data centers and leased capacity from third-party providers, including neoclouds, with which Microsoft has signed some large contracts, including CoreWeave, Nscale, Lambda, Iren, and Nebius. In November 2025, it had spent an estimated $60 billion.

The company's capex has consistently grown as well. In 2024, total capex was $55.7bn. In the years following, this has grown to $115.9bn and then $145.3bn in 2026, estimated to reach $175bn for 2027.

datacenterdynamics.com

QCOM not mentioned.

[Jim Mullens] QCOM FCST > F31- Inc Stmt – PT (Gemini- CFRA extended) Q&A with Gemini- forec...

Jim Mullens — 9/11/2026 1:13:42 PM

QCOM FCST > F31- Inc Stmt – PT (Gemini- CFRA extended)

Q&A with Gemini- forecasting QCOM Inc Stmt and PT based on CFRA
recent upgrade rational - rerating PE to 24X as a diversified AI/ DC growth
company. Note- the handset segment may be understated in out years
as it reflect no growth.

[GR8FORM] Cristiano Amon says the street gives $QCOM zero credit for the data center, the ...

GR8FORM — 9/11/2026 1:12:14 PM

Cristiano Amon says the street gives $QCOM zero credit for the data center, the last time people told him a technology couldn't work it was CDMA

"And of course, we're getting no credit on the data center, which is fine."

"It's okay, I'm just going to continue to execute, and it's going to be like auto. When we show up, people are going to say, oh, look what you built."

[ It's got to be frustrating. $15 billion by 2029 in data centers is small. ]

"Not frustrating for Qualcomm. This is our history. When we started as a company, we said CDMA is the best technology. People said CDMA doesn't work, it's not even possible as a technology."

"I think the company is about proving people wrong, and so we stick with our traditions."

CEO clip

x.com

[benhorseman] Qualcomm Bull Case: The Case for $253+Our bull scenario points to $252.85. The ...

benhorseman — 9/11/2026 1:08:10 PM

Qualcomm

Bull Case: The Case for $253+Our bull scenario points to $252.85. The catalyst stack is compelling. CEO Cristiano Amon has committed to "more than $24 billion in revenue across automotive and IoT plus more than $15 billion in data center" by fiscal 2029, nearly doubling the prior target.

Automotive is tracking to a $7 billion annualized run rate exiting FY26, boosted by an expanded BMW ADAS win. Two hyperscaler custom-silicon programs go revenue-generating this December quarter, and management expects non-handset growth to accelerate from 24% in fiscal 2026 to greater than 60% in fiscal 2027.

Layer in the Amazon warrant deal and the Modular acquisition, and the multi-year story becomes hard to ignore.

QCOM Price Scenario — 24/7 Wall St.Bear Case: The Risks Worth WatchingOur bear-case path lands near $200.49. Handset revenue fell 20% in Q3, and management now expects Apple share on the upcoming iPhone launch to come in materially lower than our prior estimate of 20%, with roughly a 50% decline in Apple revenue from September to December quarter. Memory and wafer inflation compressed operating income by 41.13% year over year.

Bulls fairly counter that pricing actions are already in motion and management expects gross margins to realign to the 48% to 50% range once absorbed, and that fiscal 2027 non-handset growth is expected to replace the entire Apple product revenue within the year.

The Next Growth Cycle Could Take Qualcomm to New Highs

Vandita Jadeja
Fri, September 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT 6 min read

[Jim Mullens] John- re" MSFT- 3X DC- link please for more details '

Jim Mullens — 9/11/2026 12:33:36 PM

[Dr. John] Microsoft plans to triple data center capacity, hopefully QCOM gets some of that...

Dr. John — 9/11/2026 11:58:33 AM

Microsoft plans to triple data center capacity, hopefully QCOM gets some of that Business .

[Jon Koplik] Re : Q share price boast / boost -- live.staticflickr.com

Jon Koplik — 9/11/2026 10:39:39 AM

[Dr. John] QCOM is up about 3.6% today, to roughly US$183.20, and the main reason appears t...

Dr. John — 9/11/2026 9:59:43 AM

QCOM is up about 3.6% today, to roughly US$183.20, and the main reason appears to be that investors are continuing to reprice Qualcomm as an AI/data-center company rather than primarily a smartphone-chip company.

Chat GPT take.

[Dr. John] So CPI data point to small interest rate hike and that gives QCOM a nice boast?,...

Dr. John — 9/11/2026 9:54:45 AM

So CPI data point to small interest rate hike and that gives QCOM a nice boast?, ops coming down as I write.

[CrackheadBob] Disagree But it needs to go through a re-rating, which means they need to deliv...

CrackheadBob — 9/11/2026 12:32:56 AM

Disagree

But it needs to go through a re-rating, which means they need to deliver on the datacenter promise. Unfortunately for QCOM, they have wiffed multiple times on many promises over many years so the investment community needs proof.

Investing in QCOM now depends on your appetite to trust that they will deliver over several years on datacenter. If they do, $300 is low IMO. If they fall on their face again, they are stuck as a phone company without a real growth story.

I'm a believer and you are not. That's fine. We all place out investment dollars as appropriate for us individually.

[Elroy] MediaTek August revenue beats expectations, boosts 3Q outlook digitimes.com...

Elroy — 9/10/2026 11:10:23 PM

MediaTek August revenue beats expectations, boosts 3Q outlook

digitimes.com

Most of the article is behind a paywall, but what you can read says MediaTek's Aug sales were up 44% over their 2025 Aug sales.

How is QCOM only showing flattish sales while MediaTek is growing sales 44% per year? What is MediaTek doing that QCOM is not?

Sales growth is what drives high PE's in tech stocks.

[waitwatchwander] amkor-phase-2-arizona-advanced-packaging-and-test-campus chiplet-marketplace.co...

waitwatchwander — 9/10/2026 9:10:33 PM

amkor-phase-2-arizona-advanced-packaging-and-test-campus

chiplet-marketplace.com

Qualcomm will likely use these new facilities.

share.google

Wafer to Packaging transfers.

share.google

[Jim Mullens] Chipengineer, re: QCOM iPhone modem support for F27 (new sept ’26 launch)- ...

Jim Mullens — 9/10/2026 7:55:23 PM

Chipengineer, re: QCOM iPhone modem support for F27 (new sept ’26 launch)-

Per my Q&A w/ Gemini way below. (2)

1) again what was QCOM iPhone guide in recent earnings call

During Qualcomm's fiscal third-quarter earnings call (and subsequent executive interviews), management updated its guidance regarding Apple modem revenue and unit shares:

· Lower Component Share: CEO Cristiano Amon and CFO Akash Palkhiwala disclosed that Qualcomm's component share in Apple's upcoming iPhone launch will fall well below their earlier 20% baseline estimate due to accelerated internal custom baseband scaling and supply constraints.

· Accelerated Decline: Management warned that the drop-off in Apple-related product revenue would accelerate faster than previously anticipated, beginning heavily in the fourth quarter.

· Fiscal 2027 Outlook: Executive commentary emphasized that growth from non-smartphone verticals (such as automotive scaling and new AI data center custom-silicon shipments) is projected to effectively offset and replace the remaining Apple modem revenue base as the multi-year supply agreement heads toward its expiration window.

2) F27 Qualcomm-Apple Component Modem (Incorporating RFFE & Antennas)

1. Target Hardware & Legacy Allocations (F27)

New September 2026 Launch Units: ~12M – 18M units (concentrated strictly on high-end U.S. Pro/Pro Max SKUs requiring complete mmWave RFFE arrays).
Legacy / Prior-Generation Units: ~10M – 15M units (fading through March 2027 contract expiration).
Total F27 QCOM Units: 22M – 33M units.

2. Qualcomm Percentage Share (F27)

QCOM Share of Total iPhone Shipments: ~10% to 14% globally for the fiscal year, front-loaded into Q1/Q2 F27 before dropping to near-zero.

3. Fully-Loaded Modem + RFFE ASP (F27)

Blended ASP: $26.00 – $32.00

Context: While bare modem-plus-transceiver silicon typically estimates around $25, bundling the required mmWave modules, power amplifiers, filters, and antenna tuning components for surviving premium U.S. tiers pushes the fully loaded subsystem ASP into the mid-to-high $20s.

Futurum Research

4. Total Qualcomm Modem + RFFE Revenue (F27)

Total F27 Apple Hardware Revenue: $570M – $1.05B

Math: (22M to 33M units) ($26 to $32 fully loaded ASP). This captures the steep terminal drop-off as Apple transitions completely away from Qualcomm silicon post-March 2027.

[freefromwires] that may be true, but it doesn’t mean they’re right either.

freefromwires — 9/10/2026 5:28:25 PM

[dylan murphy] This is great news for Apple's costumers because now they will be able to pass t...

dylan murphy — 9/10/2026 5:19:17 PM

This is great news for Apple's costumers because now they will be able to pass these savings on to the people that buy phones.

Right?

[Jim Mullens] Manning, its all relative- SMH down about 2.5%. Hard to go against the market.

Jim Mullens — 9/10/2026 5:03:40 PM

[manning18] Wow up .48 with upgrade news..it’s just utterly frustrating..patience grasshoppe...

manning18 — 9/10/2026 4:24:41 PM

Wow up .48 with upgrade news..it’s just utterly frustrating..patience grasshopper patience

[Elroy] Not really here to argue the numbers. Sure, but the PE is not based on what you...

Elroy — 9/10/2026 4:09:38 PM

Not really here to argue the numbers.

Sure, but the PE is not based on what you or I expect, it's based on market expectations.

If "the market" thought QCOM was going to grow sales and EPS 20% (or more) each year for the next 4-5 years (or more) the stock's PE would be 30x. It's not, which means the majority of investors don't believe in that growth.

[waitwatchwander] The hidden (amortized) cost of Apple's C2 modem. share.google It won't be lon...

waitwatchwander — 9/10/2026 3:35:52 PM

The hidden (amortized) cost of Apple's C2 modem.

share.google

It won't be long now until this can be digested more thoroughly.

5G royalty costs will be another item worth studying given Gemini (via currently available PR) is forcasting a rather low figure of $5 - $8 per phone.

Chipengineer: Gemini told me 12M - 15M units for ProMax a while ago. 40M seems like a world-wide number. I believe 50% of all iPhone sales are Pro versions but this % may be revenue based.