Silicon Investor - John Pitera's Market Laboratory

[Jon Koplik] 4/9/25 FT -- The trades threatening the Treasury market: archive.is

Jon Koplik — 4/28/2025 2:22:51 PM

[Don Green] I just heard this and wanted to post a link and also remove the ban R.I.P. Mess...

Don Green — 11/4/2023 12:39:27 PM

I just heard this and wanted to post a link and also remove the ban

R.I.P.
Message 34469616

[The Ox] Message 34362099 15+ years later..... There were some amazing contributions to...

The Ox — 7/26/2023 11:36:06 AM

Message 34362099

15+ years later.....

There were some amazing contributions to this thread back then and for many years before and after....

[DinoNavarre] [X] If ChatGPT's technology replaces software engineers, India would be impacte...

DinoNavarre — 4/18/2023 9:20:59 AM

[X]

If ChatGPT's technology replaces software engineers, India would be impacted the most, per Bloomberg.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 18, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] Hello Fintwit 7% increase in wages in the UK and still think inflation can...

DinoNavarre — 4/18/2023 9:17:03 AM

[X]

Hello Fintwit

7% increase in wages in the UK and still think inflation can come down without a recession?

Stop Dreaming, and get ready for a "hard" landing in the UK. pic.twitter.com/sIzUXOFOg6
— The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) April 18, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] India recorded highest MoM increase in Foreign Reserves (USD) last month si...

DinoNavarre — 4/18/2023 9:15:37 AM

[X]

India recorded highest MoM increase in Foreign Reserves (USD) last month since 2007.

This also means higher INR liquidity in domestic markets thus helping equity markets.

Liquidity is KING pic.twitter.com/AAkps5IYcN
— The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) April 18, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] Talking about wages Americans right now are accepting a work for no less ...

DinoNavarre — 4/18/2023 9:01:54 AM

[X]

Talking about wages

Americans right now are accepting a work for no less than 76k, an increase VS previous months. pic.twitter.com/GCdwl57fDZ
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) April 18, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] “The Nomura Research Institute puts the number at more than 11 million, and...

DinoNavarre — 4/17/2023 6:29:02 PM

[X]

“The Nomura Research Institute puts the number at more than 11 million, and predicts that akiya (Aka vacant/abandoned homes) could exceed 30% of all houses in Japan by 2033…”

Shrinking demographic problems

And China is looking like the same fate pic.twitter.com/ruDCe8DsZ4
— Adem Tumerkan (@RadicalAdem) April 17, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] The US Housing Market Index rose for the 4th consecutive month, reflecting ...

DinoNavarre — 4/17/2023 6:21:28 PM

[X]

The US Housing Market Index rose for the 4th consecutive month, reflecting increasing homebuilder confidence. Major reason: lack of existing supply, with new construction representing 33% of current housing inventory vs. a historical average of a little over 10% (source: NAHB). pic.twitter.com/0DyvO7MChr
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) April 17, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] Still, a few “minor” issues remain unsolved with the secured lending standard. T...

DinoNavarre — 4/17/2023 10:06:41 AM

Still, a few “minor” issues remain unsolved with the secured lending standard. The major problem is it hides systemic risk.

During the COVID crash, LIBOR skyrocketed above the Fed Funds rate, echoing stress in the unsecured debt markets. SOFR, meanwhile, failed to show the ensuing turmoil. If a similar scenario arises, monetary leaders must harness the power of other innovations, like Bloomberg’s BSBY index. This index almost perfectly tracked LIBOR during the COVID-19 market panic, allowing leaders to observe financial turmoil, unlike SOFR.

Moreover, $74 trillion of LIBOR loans are estimated to mature after June 30, 2023, when LIBOR is officially repealed. Fallbacks have been implemented but have yet to be stress-tested. Still, there’s no turning back now from the LIBOR transition. We’re stepping into the unknown.

As for the SOFR standard itself, it’s not free of hazards. The prominent risk lies deep in the weeds of the monetary system, with so-called collateral shortages. These are systemic failures of the daisy chains formed in repo markets, which tend to occur during panics.

[X]

today, most Eurodollar futures and options will be converted to SOFR equivalent contracts

a brief backstory:https://t.co/KMjTCa4tgM
— Conks 🥷 (april slow grind) (@concodanomics) April 14, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] This rally has the weakest breadth since at least 2005. The lack of partici...

DinoNavarre — 4/17/2023 9:31:21 AM

[X]

This rally has the weakest breadth since at least 2005. The lack of participation may not be a healthy sign. pic.twitter.com/vqN04cPCx4
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) April 17, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] Amerika next....??? [X] 🔵 AUSTRALIA NEARS WIDE-RANGING SHAKE UP OF ITS CENTRAL...

DinoNavarre — 4/17/2023 9:10:30 AM

Amerika next....???
[X]

🔵 AUSTRALIA NEARS WIDE-RANGING SHAKE UP OF ITS CENTRAL BANK

- Full story via Reuters at https://t.co/DHtVOF2ThJ
— PiQ (@PriapusIQ) April 17, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] The TGA is a liability on the Fed's balance sheet. This means that when the TGA ...

DinoNavarre — 4/17/2023 8:44:44 AM

The TGA is a liability on the Fed's balance sheet. This means that when the TGA goes down, reserves go up, effectively administering an injection of liquidity into the system.

This runs counter to the Fed's current stance of pursuing a tighter monetary policy, of which draining liquidity from the system via QT is a part.

[X]
To be clear, it is highly likely that the liquidity drain over the coming weeks comes at the expense of deposits

This likely brings regional banks back in focus

H.8 disclosure lags by 1 week, so we'll see it in the data by end April https://t.co/VHA29yI6d6
— Florian Kronawitter (@fkronawitter1) April 17, 2023
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[DinoNavarre] [X] A new trend? Or fall back to earth? Source: @SPGlobalpic.twitter.com/BS6UO...

DinoNavarre — 4/17/2023 8:29:37 AM

[X]

A new trend? Or fall back to earth?

Source: @SPGlobal pic.twitter.com/BS6UOx5Ok7
— Snippet Finance (@SnippetFinance) April 17, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] No bueno 👀 https://t.co/jgaWTlm5Nb— The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) April...

DinoNavarre — 4/16/2023 8:29:20 PM

[X]

No bueno 👀 https://t.co/jgaWTlm5Nb
— The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) April 15, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] WTF is this chart trying to tell me.....???

DinoNavarre — 4/16/2023 8:20:27 PM

[DinoNavarre] sticky....

DinoNavarre — 4/16/2023 8:18:35 PM

[DinoNavarre] Gimme three steps,,,,,

DinoNavarre — 4/16/2023 8:15:30 PM

[DinoNavarre] [X] The evolution from capitalism to creditism: the growth dynamic that fueled ...

DinoNavarre — 4/16/2023 8:06:33 PM

[X]

The evolution from capitalism to creditism: the growth dynamic that fueled capitalism was saving and investment. The growth dynamic that fuels creditism is credit creation & consumption. Savings have become relatively insignificant. The system requires credit creation to survive.
— IZ (@siddiqui71) December 27, 2021

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[DinoNavarre] [X] Just heard a very smart guy say we are headed back to a “stock pickers” mar...

DinoNavarre — 4/16/2023 8:01:27 PM

[X]

Just heard a very smart guy say we are headed back to a “stock pickers” market. I understand his point but with “rise of passive” I continue to believe there will be periods of “risk on” & “risk off” & just being “in” or “out” will be more important than “what” you own. 🤔🤷‍♂️
— Santiago Capital (@SantiagoAuFund) September 23, 2022

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[DinoNavarre] [X] Scott Bessent: "I was at a money manager dinner where everyone was talking ...

DinoNavarre — 4/16/2023 7:59:53 PM

[X]

Scott Bessent: "I was at a money manager dinner where everyone was talking about “my stocks this” and “my stocks that.” People forget that 50% of a stock’s move is the overall market, 30% is the industry, and maybe 20% is the extra alpha from stock picking." pic.twitter.com/MVK4v3IJCr
— Frederik Gieschen (@NeckarValue) November 10, 2022

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[DinoNavarre] [X] For many investors the volatile mix of news and contradictory economic data...

DinoNavarre — 4/16/2023 7:04:35 PM

[X]

For many investors the volatile mix of news and contradictory economic data has led to investment paralysis. There are large investment balances sitting on the sidelines, even as bearish bets on equities have hit an all-time high#equity #credit #investor # pic.twitter.com/OIT8QNGQ0v
— Mo Hossain (@MoHossain) April 16, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] Interesting chart from Apollo’s Sløk showing how US office occupancy is str...

DinoNavarre — 4/16/2023 6:03:11 PM

[X]

Interesting chart from Apollo’s Sløk showing how US office occupancy is struggling to return to pre-Covid levels. That NYC is below 50% is wild. Will be interesting to see what happens to leases over the next few years. pic.twitter.com/VPhX2UmWfG
— Robin Wigglesworth (@RobinWigg) April 15, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] Interesting gap: pic.twitter.com/r6UWFRVY9W— Ronnie Stoeferle (@RonStoeferl...

DinoNavarre — 4/16/2023 5:58:08 PM

[X]

Interesting gap: pic.twitter.com/r6UWFRVY9W
— Ronnie Stoeferle (@RonStoeferle) April 16, 2023

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[Jon Koplik] Bloomberg -- Once-Mighty Eurodollar Futures Contract Will Soon Be No More .........

Jon Koplik — 4/15/2023 2:12:56 PM

Bloomberg -- Once-Mighty Eurodollar Futures Contract Will Soon Be No More .................

bloomberg.com

or

archive.ph

excerpts :

<<<<< Eurodollars debuted in 1981 and became CME’s biggest product in terms of volume and open interest by 1988. They are futures on the three-month US dollar Libor, a decades-old reference rate for bonds, loans and other forms of credit. Their demise is a result of the emergence beginning in 2008 of evidence that Libor had been manipulated by the lenders that contributed the rates used to calculate it. >>>>>

-----------------------------------

<<<<< A panel of industry representatives and regulators picked SOFR to replace US dollar Libor in 2017. Regular publication of three-month Libor will end on June 30, though a synthetic version will be available for another three months.

Under plans in development since 2019, eligible eurodollar futures will be converted to SOFR equivalents at a fixed spread of 26.161 basis points. That figure was established through the historical difference between Libor an unsecured rate and SOFR, which is based on secured loans and published by the New York Fed. >>>>>

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<<<<< The end of eurodollars would have been inconceivable before 2008, when lots of 25,000 to 50,000 were routinely traded, Muoio said. He said his biggest eurodollar trade was 96,000 contracts >>>>>

------------------------------

<<<<< Most users of short-term interest-rate futures and options have already switched to SOFR from eurodollars. According to CME, open-interest in SOFR products is about 50 million, while open interest in eurodollars slated for conversion had dwindled to about 7 million as of last week. It peaked at nearly 85 million in June 2019. >>>>>

Jon.

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[DinoNavarre] Sounds like a good gig.....Sit around banging the pooch all day.....Collect on p...

DinoNavarre — 4/14/2023 8:38:32 AM

Sounds like a good gig.....Sit around banging the pooch all day.....Collect on payday.....

[DinoNavarre] [graphic] [X] Wise words from Japanese economist Keiichiro Kobayashi which sho...

DinoNavarre — 4/14/2023 8:23:21 AM

[X]

Wise words from Japanese economist Keiichiro Kobayashi which should be applied to #fiscal policy proposals and #centralbank financing thereof far beyond #Japan's island shores- pic.twitter.com/9lm7FK67tC
— Cantillon Consulting (@CantillonCH) April 13, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] US wage growth accelerated again in March. pic.twitter.com/O8WFaEunE3— (((T...

DinoNavarre — 4/14/2023 8:06:35 AM

[X]

US wage growth accelerated again in March. pic.twitter.com/O8WFaEunE3
— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) April 14, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] The average age of passenger cars & light trucks in the US has increased fr...

DinoNavarre — 4/14/2023 7:55:43 AM

[X]

The average age of passenger cars & light trucks in the US has increased from 8.4 years in 1995 to a record 12.3 years in 2023. pic.twitter.com/ndfZWM3sjM
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) April 14, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [graphic]

DinoNavarre — 4/13/2023 9:41:33 AM

[DinoNavarre] [X] #NASDAQhttps://t.co/Iamr7I9ppm— hidflect (@hidflect) April 13, 2023 [/X] [...

DinoNavarre — 4/13/2023 9:38:54 AM

[X]

#NASDAQ https://t.co/Iamr7I9ppm
— hidflect (@hidflect) April 13, 2023

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[X]

#NASDAQ https://t.co/6Gm2hYIQuQ
— hidflect (@hidflect) April 13, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] The trucking industry has added 100k trucks over the past year (6%) increas...

DinoNavarre — 4/13/2023 9:34:16 AM

[X]

The trucking industry has added 100k trucks over the past year (6%) increase.

The freight market has been in a recession nearly the entire time. pic.twitter.com/iI3qpyXuaT
— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) April 13, 2023

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[X]

The trucking industry has added 210k more trucks to the for-hire class-8 (big rigs) market since the start of COVID - an 18% increase. pic.twitter.com/4vLLs5VJaw
— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) April 13, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] Nostrovia! A diffusion index of monthly real PCE goods demand has been a good f...

DinoNavarre — 4/13/2023 9:03:25 AM

Nostrovia!

A diffusion index of monthly real PCE goods demand has been a good filter of recessions. As shown below, since 1960, in each of the six prior cases that the diffusion index was negative, there was a contraction in growth. On the other hand, when growth dropped negative but the diffusion index was positive, the apparent downturn quickly reversed. The diffusion index recently breached the zero line for only the seventh time since 1960—another indication that we’re headed for a third stage of the tightening cycle.

[X]

The Tightening Cycle Is Approaching Stage 3: „Odds favor a 3rd stage of this tightening cycle likely to be marked either by an economic downturn or failure to meet the inflation target, prompting more tightening. Either would be bad for most portfolios.“https://t.co/XmbnvKZtLZ
— Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 (@BurggrabenH) April 10, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] BLOOMBERG PLANS TO INTEGRATE GPT-STYLE A.I. INTO ITS TERMINAL - CNBC— *Walt...

DinoNavarre — 4/13/2023 8:17:35 AM

[X]

BLOOMBERG PLANS TO INTEGRATE GPT-STYLE A.I. INTO ITS TERMINAL - CNBC
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 13, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] Remarkable chart 👇 Commodities on China autopilot. Ht @CavaggioniMariopic....

DinoNavarre — 4/13/2023 7:53:02 AM

[X]

Remarkable chart 👇 Commodities on China autopilot. Ht @CavaggioniMario pic.twitter.com/HN5MBez5ZF
— Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) April 13, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] Take the pain....

DinoNavarre — 4/12/2023 8:59:03 PM

[DinoNavarre] [X] US Federal Government Spending has increased 185% over the last 20 years ve...

DinoNavarre — 4/12/2023 8:32:23 PM

[X]

US Federal Government Spending has increased 185% over the last 20 years versus a 64% increase in overall inflation (CPI). That's an annualized increase in spending of 5.5% per year, which is more than double the 2.5% annualized increase in CPI. pic.twitter.com/UO5V4WFpcR
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) April 6, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [graphic]

DinoNavarre — 4/12/2023 8:24:36 PM

[DinoNavarre] [X] In a highly financialized economy, if asset prices don’t keep going up, tax...

DinoNavarre — 4/12/2023 8:17:43 PM

[X]

In a highly financialized economy, if asset prices don’t keep going up, tax revenue tends to stagnate and the deficit widens. https://t.co/F9uyXttW0O
— Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) April 12, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] Lots of events can lead to wider credit spreads ... rising claims is the mo...

DinoNavarre — 4/12/2023 7:15:36 PM

[X]

Lots of events can lead to wider credit spreads ... rising claims is the most consistent of them all. Red vertical lines mark the low in spreads and claims which kick off each bear market. As claims rise, markets fall.

A simplistic (and increasingly non-linear) reaction… pic.twitter.com/NaVxhgzr9y
— Kantro (@MichaelKantro) April 12, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] NFIB survey shows that credit conditions are tightening for small businesse...

DinoNavarre — 4/12/2023 11:44:45 AM

[X]

NFIB survey shows that credit conditions are tightening for small businesses--are tighter than any time since the 2008 Great Recession@jasonfurman @RobinBrooksIIF pic.twitter.com/E7fiJsg65Y
— Mo Hossain (@MoHossain) April 12, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] The Mexico ETF $EWW is currently the top performing country ETF for US inve...

DinoNavarre — 4/12/2023 11:40:41 AM

[X]

The Mexico ETF $EWW is currently the top performing country ETF for US investors in 2023, up 20.26% YTD. Spain $EWP, France $EWQ, Germany $EWG, and Italy $EWI are the other four up 15%+ YTD.

You can track these in our Tools section at https://t.co/e8LECQTizl. pic.twitter.com/zEfT1vvlrz
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) April 12, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] Today's CPI print likely enables the Fed to pause at the next meeting Chic...

DinoNavarre — 4/12/2023 11:21:28 AM

[X]

Today's CPI print likely enables the Fed to pause at the next meeting

Chicago Fed president Goolsbee laid the groundwork for said move in yesterday's speechhttps://t.co/Qpa87DnPyh
— Florian Kronawitter (@fkronawitter1) April 12, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] CAC40 Paris stonk exchange hit new all time highs i guess wage growth is j...

DinoNavarre — 4/12/2023 11:17:16 AM

[X]

CAC40 Paris stonk exchange hit new all time highs

i guess wage growth is just another small hump pic.twitter.com/oZzOpHgQqi
— 🅰🅻🅴🆂🆂🅸🅾 (@AlessioUrban) April 12, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] US CPI Today. Powell's main worry in February was the sticky core services ...

DinoNavarre — 4/12/2023 11:15:39 AM

[X]

US CPI Today. Powell's main worry in February was the sticky core services ex housing component - but is it now trumped by the worry of credit conditions tightening? How does he weigh the two now?

The "supercore" component represents 56% of core inflation and remains elevated: pic.twitter.com/6yqADCWrxi
— Valerie Tytel (@ValerieTytel) April 12, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] Shelter CPI has been playing catch up but still only shows a 16.4% increase...

DinoNavarre — 4/12/2023 10:04:26 AM

[X]

Shelter CPI has been playing catch up but still only shows a 16.4% increase since the start of 2020 versus a 21.4% increase in actual Rents & a 38% increase in Home Prices (nationally). Which means that we could still see more increases in Shelter CPI to close some of that gap. pic.twitter.com/CMjS7Pyakd
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) April 12, 2023

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[X]

Overall US CPI moved down to 5.0% in March, the 9th consecutive decline in the YoY rate of inflation and the lowest level since May 2021.

US Core CPI (ex-Food/Energy) moved up to 5.6% YoY, driven in large part by the continued rise in shelter CPI (+8.2% YoY, highest since '82). pic.twitter.com/o9bGEG2GnL
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) April 12, 2023

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[X]

Price changes over last year (CPI report)...
Transportation: +13.9%
Electricity: +10.2%
Food away from home: +8.8%
Food at home: +8.4%
Shelter: +8.2%
New Cars: +6.1%
Gas Utilities: +5.5%
Overall CPI: +5.0%
Medical Care: +1.0%
Used Cars: -11.2%
Fuel Oil: -14.2%
Gasoline: -17.4%
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) April 12, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] Aloha = Hello & Goodbye.... [X] Yellen getting her analysis from Cramer https:/...

DinoNavarre — 4/11/2023 7:08:55 PM

Aloha = Hello & Goodbye....
[X]

Yellen getting her analysis from Cramer https://t.co/7bgPfL1HsV
— Tony Nash (@TonyNashNerd) April 11, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] 'US money market funds' balances are not elevated relative to equity and bo...

DinoNavarre — 4/11/2023 5:00:03 PM

[X]

'US money market funds' balances are not elevated relative to equity and bond market values.' https://t.co/TJmlR7h8Ak via @SoberLook @bcaresearch pic.twitter.com/dPCSuEVquQ
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) April 10, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] Prices for Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet watches appreciated by...

DinoNavarre — 4/11/2023 1:03:15 PM

[X]

Prices for Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet watches appreciated by an average of 20% a year since mid-2018, outpacing the S&P 500 Index, per Bloomberg.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 11, 2023

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[DinoNavarre] [X] “Many homeowners, including lots of Baby Boomers, who locked in record-low ...

DinoNavarre — 4/11/2023 12:51:51 PM

[X]

“Many homeowners, including lots of Baby Boomers, who locked in record-low mortgage rates in recent years aren’t in a rush to sell their home ... As a result, .. the value of household real estate ... owners’ equity ... a record $31.0 trillion," per Yardeni Research. pic.twitter.com/LHwlffaACb
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 11, 2023

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