Silicon Investor - A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

[OldAIMGuy] It appears the markets are stuck in the muck as is our v-Wave. [graphic] I gue...

OldAIMGuy — 8/3/2026 10:23:52 AM

It appears the markets are stuck in the muck as is our v-Wave.

I guess when spinning one's wheels, in what might be quicksand, doesn't get us moving very fast. While risk isn't rising, it's also not declining. Let's see if the MRI offers any further insight.

It is also showing us a somewhat unchanging risk profile even as the individual components thrash around:

Relative Valuation - v - Caution , 21.81
Speculation - ^ - Neutral , 14.4
Divergence - ^ - Caution , 9.2
IPO Activity - v - Neutral, 1.60

With two up and two down, it's not quite a wash for the week. The MRI rose one point to a suggested 40% cash held in reserve and the MRI Oscillator rose to +2 (modest upward risk pressure). It appears today's stock markets are more tuned into international news than to business and economics. I'm not complaining. My portfolios continue to do well, overall, even if not uniformly. More later......

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Are the Summer Heat Waves just about over now? Will we get some relief from swea...

OldAIMGuy — 7/28/2026 3:57:31 PM

Are the Summer Heat Waves just about over now? Will we get some relief from sweating through what seems to be perpetually cautious market risk? The MRI this week does settle one point lower at 39% suggested cash for diversified portfolios. The MRI Oscillator drops to minus 3, indicating risk pressure is easing. Here's how the four components of the MRI look this week:

Relative Valuation - ^ - Caution , 22.22
Speculation - v - Neutral , 13.9
Divergence - v - Caution , 5.4
IPO Activity - unch - Neutral, 1.70

With the four MRI components we get to see the market from a valuation, speculative, consensus and fad (IPOs) point of view. Recently we had the SpaceX IPO. My IPO Activity Index didn't even blink!! After all, the IPO Activity Index looks at the NUMBER of IPOs coming to the market not the SIZE. SpaceX was so huge, it dwarfed probably the worst IPO surge we've ever had - not in numbers of new companies, but in the total value of the IPO. It's been the only one of my four indicators that was not bearish - because of how it is structured. I guess I could rebuild it to reflect the IPO Dollar value as well as the increase in the number of issues being traded. But, I don't think it would have an historical reference point. So, how would we then judge it?

The effect of the SpaceX IPO is not that dissimilar to a surge in the number of new IPOs. IPOs tend to drain the speculative monies away from the traditional stocks already in the market. I think we may be seeing that here, too. Everybody with some extra pocket change said, "Gee, Elon's never wrong - and besides, rocket ships are just plain cool!!!" Their money went to SPCX instead of some boring A.I. stock. Duh! A.I.'s So Old School!!! ....and suddenly, the hyped data center business and buildout takes second fiddle to the latest hit toon.

The Value Line "Appreciation Potential" on which the v-Wave is based remained steady on the threshold of the Caution territory. Shorter term it suggests 38% cash held in reserve and longer term it gives a 34% suggested cash.

In the past, when we've seen speculative IPO activity suck investors' available cash away from traditional stocks/funds, we've seen the broad indexes go "FLAT" for up to 18 months. With speculative cash temporarily being tied up, traditional markets just don't have the driving force to move further upward. This could happen here as well. Many IPO buyers of SPCX are currently under water on their new holding. If it gets to Tax Loss Season and stays where it is, SPCX will be sold off for its loss value against other gains. That could return some speculative powder to the investment arsenal.

Value Line's Model Portfolio III (3-5 year above average price appreciation) dropped NetFlix (NFLX) from its roster and replaced it with Kraft Heinz (KHC) at $25.86. You can find this list of stocks in VL's "Selection & Opinion" section in the weekly updates. Most larger public libraries have subscriptions to Value Line, so a stroll through their periodicals section should give you access without a subscription.

NFLX Out....................
schrts.co

KHC In.....................
schrts.co

I hate to say that this sort of "timing" isn't what Mr. LIchello's AIM would be doing. AIM would look at NFLX's decline and probably be recommending accumulating more shares at the nice, current discount. AIM would also probably have been accumulating shares of KHC all the way to the March, 2026 Low and would possibly be back into its Sell mode of some of the accumulated inventory. Being a very contrary investment management method, that's the way AIM views such things. I've contemplated the idea of whether we can become too contrary. I don't think so, however. It's very difficult for most investors to see "through the looking glass" and see the contrary view. When stocks or markets sell off, who's going to be there to buy the inventory? When markets and stocks are soaring, who's going to provide the share inventory to those hungry investors?

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Quote of the Day - From Warren Buffett Warren Buffett on the market today: ‘It’...

OldAIMGuy — 7/15/2026 11:56:26 AM

Quote of the Day - From Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett on the market today:
‘It’s tough to find values when everybody is preferring gambling’

Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Here's a deeper look at Cumulative Risk. Two extraordinary time frames 1) the de...

OldAIMGuy — 7/14/2026 10:07:29 AM

Here's a deeper look at Cumulative Risk. Two extraordinary time frames 1) the decline in cumulative risk following the Financial Crisis of 2008-09 thru the next decade and 2) the Post Covid market rally and risk accumulation since then.

Does this help with our understanding of how unusual this most recent time frame has been?

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Re: Extensive Periods of Above Median Risk.............................. Someti...

OldAIMGuy — 7/14/2026 8:55:36 AM

Re: Extensive Periods of Above Median Risk..............................

Sometimes it's of value to observe risk from a different point of view. If we assume measured market risk above Median levels create pressures that eventually have to be relieved, we might see things in a slightly different light. To create the "Cumulative Risk" histograms, I took the weekly value of each the MRI and the v-Wave and then added to them the amount above or below Median in the following week to come up with the next data point. So, what we have here are indications of risk direction and pressure.

An upward sloping line would indicate risk has been above median and visa versa. In these two histograms we see and can "feel" the rising risk pressure. What will be the trigger that will reverse the trends and bring market risk at least back to median? I don't know. It seems war, energy costs, market hype, inflation and economics have little effect these days. Different from our weekly histograms, these show risk in a different light.

How long can it continue? I guess we'll see. In the meantime, Mr. Lichello continues to advise us wisely by have us sell small amounts of inventory into market strength and once in a while, buy into market weakness.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Report on my Portfolios.................... My Twinvest IRA that I converted to...

OldAIMGuy — 7/3/2026 8:42:39 AM

Report on my Portfolios....................

My Twinvest IRA that I converted to AIM.....

The VUG Growth fund stalled for June and so did the portfolio.

Business Sector ETFs (each managed with AIM separately)

Here again, June offered nothing much in the way of activity.

9 International ETF Composite portfolio

All of my portfolios were singing in harmony in June. Unfortunately the tune was "flat."

Happy Financial Independence Day!!!
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Re: For your Independence Day Enjoyment!............................. Tom’s Che...

OldAIMGuy — 7/2/2026 10:02:00 AM

Re: For your Independence Day Enjoyment!.............................

Tom’s Cherry Bombs – Recipe

It's pretty easy!.

1 - Package of 12 "King's Hawaiian Sweet Rolls"
1 - Can of favorite Cherry Pie filling (home-made, or apple filling or ???)

- Break rolls into individuals as packaged.
- With a knife, put a cut in the middle of the top of the roll
- Put your thumb in the hole and compress the bread sides and bottom all the way around to make a cavity.
- Spoon pie filling into the cavity to the top.

Take a muffin pan and baste it with melted butter or similar non-stick spray.
Put one filled Cherry Bomb in each muffin dish.
Baste each muffin's top with a bit of melted butter.
Preheat oven to 350°F and then bake the Bombs for 8 minutes.

These "Explode" with Flavor, like Cherry Pie Sliders.

Have a Blast and happy Independence Day,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Neither the v-Wave or the MRI are particularly optimistic these days. The v-Wave...

OldAIMGuy — 6/28/2026 4:04:51 PM

Neither the v-Wave or the MRI are particularly optimistic these days. The v-Wave, while borderline Cautious, isn't exactly giving off positive mid or long term vibes right now.

Our Market Risk Indicator is even less enthusiastic this week. It rose two points this week to 41% suggested cash for diversified portfolios. (think if I were starting my JETS etf investment now rather than in 2020!) The MRI Oscillator sits at +9, indicating very strong upward risk pressure. The four MRI components look like this:
Relative Valuation - v - Neutral
Speculation - ^ - Caution
Divergence - ^ - Caution
IPO Activity - unch - Neutral

I've been making sure the Sales Dept is doing its best job to reduce inventories as prices have been rising. The Purchasing Dept hasn't had much to do other than adding the first bit more inventory to VIEW's gold position. In the mean time, the Savings and Loan branch has been collecting reasonable interest from its cash and equivalents deposits.

AIM to be smarter than Market Speculators!,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Hi DC, In case you're having trouble sleeping, there's another 48000 AIM relate...

OldAIMGuy — 6/25/2026 10:15:21 AM

Hi DC,
In case you're having trouble sleeping, there's another 48000 AIM related posts over there to keep you entertained!!

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[DreamChaser] Hi, Tom, Good morning! Thank you very much for the helpful information! I appr...

DreamChaser — 6/25/2026 9:22:43 AM

Hi, Tom,

Good morning!

Thank you very much for the helpful information! I appreciate it.

Best wishes,

DreamChaser

[OldAIMGuy] Good morning DC, Re: AIM Users Bulletin Board.............................. Whi...

OldAIMGuy — 6/25/2026 8:03:27 AM

Good morning DC, Re: AIM Users Bulletin Board..............................

While I still maintain the page here on SI, the more active group of AIM users gather at the InvestorsHub web site:
investorshub.advfn.com

Here's a page there that has Q&A about AIM from lots of users:
investorshub.advfn.com

Please feel free to ask questions either here or at i-Hub. I will answer either place, but you might get more users responding at i-Hub.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[DreamChaser] Tom, Sorry to disturb you! I am reading Mr. Robert Lichello's book about AIM, ...

DreamChaser — 6/24/2026 4:39:30 PM

Tom,

Sorry to disturb you!

I am reading Mr. Robert Lichello's book about AIM, and I am glad to know that you did excellent jobs in personalizing and modernizing AIM!

There are 18949 messages in the A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board so far. Could you please recommend some of them for reading and learning?

Hope to hear from you!

Best wishes,

DreamChaser

[OldAIMGuy] For the latest Market Risk news, please see this on i-Hub. investorshub.advfn.c...

OldAIMGuy — 6/21/2026 1:52:07 PM

For the latest Market Risk news, please see this on i-Hub.

investorshub.advfn.com

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[OldAIMGuy] Re: Market Risk Report........................ I'm unsure. Are the New York Kni...

OldAIMGuy — 6/14/2026 1:56:25 PM

Re: Market Risk Report........................

I'm unsure. Are the New York Knicks Fans or the Elon Musk Fans celebrating to a greater degree? The Knicks have a lot of playing history and fans are celebrating after half a century of waiting for a championship. On the other hand, are fans of Elon Musk celebrating the launch of the SPCX initial public offering or is it something else? In any case, I've always considered the IPO market the most speculative end of the capital markets. Even if Mr. Musk's name is attached, it's still very speculative. It had all the excitement of a Star Trek Convention as the largest IPO in history was launched last Friday.

Market risk as measured by the SignalPoint MRI rose another point to an indicated 38% suggested cash for diversified portfolios. Redeployment of this large cash reserve will require a significant downturn in the overall market. As the Boy Scouts say, "Be Prepared!" The MRI Oscillator is again at +6, indicating significant upward risk pressure.

The MRI's four components look like this:
Relative Valuation - unch - Neutral
Speculation - ^ - Caution
Divergence - ^ - Caution
IPO Activity - unch - Neutral

Value Line's data on which the v-Wave is based changed only modestly. The 3-5 year forecast and the v-Wave's calculation for a Cash Reserve came in again at 33% for diversified portfolios. The shorter term 18 month indicator actually dropped one point to 37% suggested cash held in reserve.

In both the v-Wave and the MRI's views, general market risk is relatively high and a far distance from the Proactive range. This is occurring even as the market indexes seem to have stalled a bit recently. What should we expect next? A friend told me the other evening that in the last 12 months he's made more money in the stock market than ever before. My portfolios are also at or very near their all time highs, too. That makes for happy investors, certainly. My healthy cash reserve levels also make me a happy person. The markets will tell me when it's the right time to shift my holdings to a more heavily invested ratio.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom
PS: yet again this week there were no changes in Value Line's Model Portfolio III. They mention their Gold/Precious Metals components have been suffering as of late. Maybe gold investors sold their precious metals to buy the SPCX IPO!

In my own portfolio of IAU, the share price is now nearing its first Repurchase target. After selling roughly 5% of the position at a bit over $100/share, it's now retreated to just below $80/share. My repurchase of roughly 6% more inventory is targeted at around $77/share.Cash is earning interest, but gold delivers periodic capital gains.

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] A few weeks ago, I commented on the fact that 19 of 41 stocks in Value Line's "B...

OldAIMGuy — 6/1/2026 9:05:22 AM

A few weeks ago, I commented on the fact that 19 of 41 stocks in Value Line's "Best Performing Stocks - Latest 13 Weeks" were all from the general "Tech" sector. This week that number has climbed to 24 of 41 stocks! Are there no other areas of the economy that deserve the adoration of investors?

Also note that 19 of the "Best" have more than 100% gains in just 13 weeks. Doesn't this seem like it's being over-cooked a bit?

This very narrow focus is the most significant I've seen in a long time. It has helped push the SignalPoint Speculation Index to its Caution level. It seems pervasive enough to have built consensus for investors as well as we see the SignalPoint Divergence Index fall back to its neutral range. How long can this continue? I'd guess until there's a reckoning of sector and broad market earnings.

With these changes this week, we have the MRI dropping one point to show a suggested 36% cash reserve for diversified investments. Three components are neutral and one is cautious. The MRI Oscillator is zero, indicating no upward or downward risk pressure.

The MRI components:
Relative Valuation - ^ - Neutral
Speculation - ^ - Caution
Divergence - v - Neutral
IPO Activity - ^ - Neutral

As a check on the MRI, we now take a look at the v-Wave. It rose a point this week to 33% suggested cash for the 3-5 year time horizon. Both the v-Wave and the MRI are not exactly celebrating right now. They're suggesting it is harvest time, at least in making sure we don't watch our crops over-ripen.

This technology sector enthusiasm has carried all the indexes to new highs recently and doesn't seem to want to stop. Have we been mistaken in taking profits during this latest market climb? If we're only selling to put a cap on our overall risk amount, then it's just been prudent action. Reversion to the Mean can be painful if our portfolio is 100% exposed to the unforeseen future.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Re: AIM and Zig Zag Reversals.......................... Here's some thoughts on...

OldAIMGuy — 6/1/2026 8:04:55 AM

Re: AIM and Zig Zag Reversals..........................

Here's some thoughts on using StockCharts' "Zig Zag" feature to help picking appropriate Hold Zone size for AIM managed investments. It's not a perfect method, but helps to quantify what an appropriate set of AIM settings might be.

Zig Zag shows reversals that are "at least" the percentage selected. In some time frames, the reversals are significantly larger and longer than the selected percent moves (long trends). For this series, I chose a stock I've owned for quite a long time - Jabil Circuits, JBL. (not a recommendation, just something I own as an example)

I chose Zig Zag of 40% (about equal to AIM-High), 30% (about equal to AIM "by the book" 10% buy and sell SAFE plus 5% minimum trade size), 25% (slightly reduced SAFE and still 5% min trades), 20% (zero Sell SAFE, 10% Buy SAFE plus 5% minimum transaction size) and even 15% (severely reduced SAFE and/or trade minimum). You can see that the number of reversals increases as the size of the ZZ is reduced. Picking the 'Sweet Spot' of Reversal count and profit per reversal is a relatively simple exercise. But, we may find the precent increase in reversals does not equate to the greatest total profit because the decrease in profit per reversal is greater than the increase in # of reversals.

I also like to see the turns in Zig Zag coincide with the Williams%R levels above -20 (Selling) and below -80 (Buying). Call this a desire to see AIM moves being "technically efficient." If we're seeing reversals that don't align with W%R maybe we're pushing the trading too hard. The examples shown here also have "Accumulation/Distribution" shown. It's nice if that sync's up as well.

ZZ = 40

Zero Reversals, no correlation with W%R or Accumulation/Distribution.

ZZ = 30

Two Reversals with good correlation with W%R moves

ZZ = 25

Same two reversals, reduced profit per reversal. Still good correlation between ZZ and W%R.

ZZ = 20

Four reversals - a doubling of round trip opportunities with a drop in profit per reversal of about 20%. Declining correlation between ZZ and W%R.

ZZ = 15%

Nine reversals, but profits are again cut by 25% per turn. Low correlation between ZZ and W%R.

Is there a "best" setting for Split SAFE and Transaction size? Every time frame is different, so there's no easy answer. Since each transaction takes the same amount of our time, I guess we could calculate the profit of each transaction and the time to execute it. Then we could come up with a pay scale of $XX.xx per hour of effort. If we're being paid $100/hr for using a 30% ZZ and just $80/hr for transactions using 25%, I guess I'd stick with 30%ZZ! But if we drop to 20%ZZ we get twice the number of transactions. Profit drops again, however. Now we're getting paid $66/Hr but we have twice as many transactions. See where this is going?

Here's the StockCharts link. Note you can change the Zig Zag value down in the body of the page below the histogram.
schrts.co
You can change the ticker symbol to a stock/fund of your choice and play with Zig Zag to get a feel for it relative to AIM's profits per transaction.

Have Fun!,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Re: Quick check on the NYSE Party................................. This histogr...

OldAIMGuy — 5/21/2026 10:56:27 AM

Re: Quick check on the NYSE Party.................................

This histogram shows the NYSE Up Volume divided by the NYSE Down Volume along with the Williams % R calc of movement. I've highlighted some areas that seem to coincide nicely with general market turns.

The consistent accumulation seen since late in 2023 looks like it has run out of steam as of the start of 2026. This year, so far, it's been bumpy but generally horizontal. The W%R has dropped to its middle range indicating we're maybe seen the Party winding down.

Over on the NASDAQ, we see a similar pattern but there's still some enthusiastic buyers at the Party.

Again, we see a flattening of the trend since late 2025 with only the most recent weeks pushing the W%R back abover -20. Is this a good sign or is it just showing that the focus has shifted more heavily to the NASDAQ Composite and away from the more traditional NYSE?

Mr. Lichello's been suggesting we check the liquor cabinet to see if there's anything left to keep the party going. AIM has been collecting a Cover Charge all through the recent Two Year Party, so there should be funds available for the clean-up crew.

I think this may be a confirmation of both the v-Wave and the MRI's somewhat risky assessment of current market conditions.

Best wishes,
OAG

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] This week we see the SignalPoint Market Risk Indicator (MRI) moving upward even ...

OldAIMGuy — 5/18/2026 11:05:30 AM

This week we see the SignalPoint Market Risk Indicator (MRI) moving upward even as the v-Wave remains steady. The MRI is now at 36% suggested cash and cautious and shows a +6 Oscillator reading indicating strong upward risk pressure.

Of the four MRI Components, only one, Divergence, remains cautious.

The MRI components:
Relative Valuation - unch Neutral
Speculation - ^ Neutral
Divergence - ^ Caution
IPO Activity - v Neutral

Has the "Sell In May" crowd capitulated this year in the face of a zany bull market for A.I.? This week's "Best Performers - Latest 13 Weeks" list in Value Line has 19 Tech related companies shown out of 41. It's extremely rare to have so many companies from one industry shown there. This shows that money flow is exceedingly narrow in its focus.

As stocks have generally been good so far in 2026, we sometimes forget what is going on in the Bond market. This week we see the 10 Year bond coupon rate rise to 4.375%/yr, up a sixteenth. Is this a bad thing or good in view of inflation and other business pressures?

At least the Yield Curve is no longer "inverted." It's taken several years to get it to return to something more traditional.

There were no changes to the Value Line Model Portfolio III this week.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] GNRC has been in my Equity Warehouse for some time now. I attempt to manage over...

OldAIMGuy — 4/29/2026 10:42:37 AM

GNRC has been in my Equity Warehouse for some time now. I attempt to manage overall risk of ownership in this inventory as well as profitably trade around the core position. Here's how it looks over the last three years:

These are the trades I've made during this time frame.

In this sister Stacked Bar histogram, we see the Cash Reserve respond to each trade. Buying brings it down a bit while selling small, incremental amounts refunds the cash.

Such inventory management helps to contain risk while adding to Total Return through profitable round trip trades around the core.

Best wishes,
OAG

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] [graphic] While the 3-5 Year v-Wave was unchanged this week at 33%, the shorter...

OldAIMGuy — 4/27/2026 8:09:33 AM

While the 3-5 Year v-Wave was unchanged this week at 33%, the shorter term 18 Month horizon got a bit cloudier with an increase of 2 points to 37% suggested cash for diversified accounts.

Best wishes,
OAG

[OldAIMGuy] With another week of generally okay stock behavior, how does the SignalPoint MRI...

OldAIMGuy — 4/27/2026 8:05:25 AM

With another week of generally okay stock behavior, how does the SignalPoint MRI come in? We saw little change in the v-Wave, how about the MRI's outlook?

The MRI is steady this week inside of its Caution range with an Oscillator of +2, indicating only modest upward risk pressure. This occurs even as three of the four MRI components rise in their own risk ranges.

Relative Valuation - ^ Caution
Speculation - ^ Neutral
Divergence - unchanged Neutral
IPO Activity - ^ Neutral

So, one unchanged and three rising slightly wasn't enough to budge the overall MRI to a higher level. It is suggesting 34% cash for diversified holdings managed with AIM.

Best wishes,
OAG

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[Johnny Canuck] Thanks. Very helpful explanation. I am always looking for new ways to refine my...

Johnny Canuck — 4/8/2026 3:19:13 PM

Thanks. Very helpful explanation.

I am always looking for new ways to refine my trading approach.

[OldAIMGuy] Portfolio Updates: Growth IRA [graphic] March, -3.4% IRA with 10 Common Stocks...

OldAIMGuy — 4/3/2026 11:29:31 AM

Portfolio Updates:

Growth IRA

March, -3.4%

IRA with 10 Common Stocks

March, -1.5%

U.S. Business Sector ETF Composite

March, -0.3%

9 International "Style" ETF Composite

March, +3.4%

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] "Stock Market Logic" An Oxymoron Title But Fosback was good! [graphic] Have ...

OldAIMGuy — 3/27/2026 2:21:51 PM

"Stock Market Logic"
An Oxymoron Title
But Fosback was good!

Have a great weekend,
OAG Tom

[OldAIMGuy] Good morning JC, Re: MRI and v-Wave risk indicators...................... Here'...

OldAIMGuy — 3/23/2026 9:22:14 AM

Good morning JC, Re: MRI and v-Wave risk indicators......................

Here's what the MRI's success history looks like:

As shown, the MRI's effective "prediction" is better than the flip of a coin. That said, some of these higher risk events can last a very long time before there's any reconciliation of market levels and market risk.

This week we see the MRI coming down more with a 2 point drop in its risk assessment.

The MRI Oscillator shows a minus 4, indicating downward risk pressure again this week. Overall, this is an improved posture, but as is shown, we're still well above the Caution threshold, Median and Proactive areas of the MRI bandwidth. At least the trend is looking better.

The same is seen when looking at the v-Wave. It's down another point this week to 32% suggested cash for the longer view of 3.5 years and 35% for the 18 month time horizon. Again, not great, but the trend is looking more favorable.

In both the MRI and the v-Wave we have some delay in that both are based upon weekly data. So, looking at the Oscillator for the MRI gives us a feel for the trend. A negative Oscillator says risk is shrinking.

I don't see 'capitulation' in either histogram as of yet. Last Friday's selling seems to be a flight to cash before the weekend, rather than a "Sell in March and Go Away" sort of thing. Historically, we've needed to see both of these measures dip toward the "Proactive" range before we see actual capitulation.

Hope this helps,
OAG Tom

[Johnny Canuck] How coarse an indicator is MRI? Is the read that a reversal of the sell off is c...

Johnny Canuck — 3/21/2026 2:47:57 PM

How coarse an indicator is MRI? Is the read that a reversal of the sell off is coming soon based on the chart or it less predictive than that?

The major indices either crossed or tested their 200 day sma's on Friday but held at their put option walls. Monday starts a new options cycle so it usual provides a less biased read of sentiment for the next options cycle.

[OldAIMGuy] It's taken all three major market indexes a while to react to ongoing market, ec...

OldAIMGuy — 3/16/2026 8:13:27 AM

It's taken all three major market indexes a while to react to ongoing market, economic and political risk, but now we're starting to see some softening of risk.

SignalPoint's MRI is giving a confirmatory nod that risk is finally responding to these same risks.

The MRI is off two points this week to 38% suggested reserve cash. The MRI Oscillator is minus 5 indicating market risk is dropping nicely. While still a long way from Proactive (same as the v-Wave) the MRI's four components all dropped a bit in their own risk ranges. Three are neutral while Relative Valuation remains in the Caution zone.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Re: AIM and the concept of the Equity Warehouse....................... I've bee...

OldAIMGuy — 2/26/2026 11:00:33 AM

Re: AIM and the concept of the Equity Warehouse.......................

I've been fiddling with Google's "Notebook LM" a bit. I had it look over the AIM-Users archived Web site and create some summaries of what was there. One of the features of Notebook LM is that it can create some "Infographics" based upon what it discovers in web sites like my old AIM-Users site. Here's a graphic generated by it based upon my concept of running a family investment portfolio as an Equity Warehouse:

Sometimes a picture is worth a lot of type written stuff!!

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Presidents Day Edition................................... For all of you who ar...

OldAIMGuy — 2/16/2026 11:52:47 AM

Presidents Day Edition...................................

For all of you who are your own Equity Warehouse Presidents, I officially give you the day off. The Sales Department here at Veale International Equity Warehouse has been busy over the last month. Rising prices of equities, both U.S. and International, have kept them busy. This has been occurring as our market risk indicators have continued to offer cautious signals about the stock markets' valuations.

Years ago I would post the four components of the MRI on a weekly basis. It might be 'too much information' but I'm including it here for this week's report:

- Relative Valuation Index - 23.08, ^, Cautious (above 21.75 = Cautious)
- Speculation Index - 12.5, ^, Neutral (above 20.0 = Cautious)
- Divergence Index - 9.5, v, Cautious (above 5.4 = Cautious)
- IPO/New Issues Index - 1.42, ^, Neutral (above 2.40 = Cautious)

These four components are massaged and summarized in the MRI.

Unchanged for this week, the MRI remains at a suggested 40% reserve cash for diversified portfolios. The MRI Oscillator, which gives us a feel for risk direction, shows +4 and indicates moderate upward risk pressure.

How does the MRI compare to the data I process from Value Line? The v-Wave 3-5 year shows a suggested cash level is 34%, unchanged for this week. The 18 month cash suggestion is showing 41%, up another point from the previous week.

So, while there are some differences between the two risk indicators, both are suggesting caution about how one's portfolio should be structured for the shorter and longer term horizon.

I don't feel badly about selling into this market. Each sale represents only a small portion of the positions' total - usually 5% to 10% of the holding.
- Sold 5% of DEM (Emerging Markets)
- Sold 5% of EFA (EAFE Growth Markets)
- Sold 5% of RSPG (Equal Weight Energy Sector)
- Sold 5% of RSPN (Equal Weight Industrials Sector)
- Sold 5% of RSPM (Equal Weight Materials Sector)
- Sold 5% of SCHE (Emerging Markets Equities)
- Sold 10% of GNRC (Generac Holdings)
- Sold 10% of EPD (Enterprise Products)
- Sold 5% of FGD (DJ Select Dividend Stocks)
As you can see, the Purchasing Department at V.I.E.W. has had plenty of time at the coffee maker and to catch up on correspondence, but no buying activity.

While I'm not wishing for a market downturn, I would not be upset if it occurred and gave me an opportunity to re-deploy some of the cash I have been holding in reserve. Similarly, I won't be upset if the markets continue upward, as I still have lots of inventory to be sold at the right price. It's "Smile when the markets rise and Smile when the markets decline." That's a nice stress free way to run a business.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] I liked this quote from an article by Cullen Roche. It seems to speak to me as I...

OldAIMGuy — 2/8/2026 12:57:18 PM

I liked this quote from an article by Cullen Roche. It seems to speak to me as I watch the daily tickers:

"More important, beating the market is literally not a good financial goal, because typically when people are chasing returns, they’re really chasing risk."

An upward move of three points in one week is unusual. This week the MRI comes in at 40% suggested cash for diversified portfolios. This is well into the Caution zone and we take note. The MRI Oscillator, which shows risk direction and pressure, shows +9 this week - strong upward risk pressure.

Two components are in their own caution territory while the other two are neutral.

Our v-Wave Risk Indicator remains unchanged this week at 34% suggested cash reserve for diversified accounts. Based in a completely different set of data, part of Value Line's 'black box' of Appreciation Potential, it isn't suggesting a second mortgage on the house would be a good idea for fresh investing cash.

The flattening out of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite indexes shows there's more going on here than is easily explained. The Dow 30 Index, which has lagged the other two, moved to new high ground last week, even as the other two indexes appear stalled.

In the Market Risk Indicator (MRI) it was the Divergence Index component that was the driving force of the rapid jump upward in risk. It appears the market participants don't have a consensus on whether the market's next move will be upward or downward. A very large number of new 52 week highs and lows simultaneously is usually a short term bearish signal. If nothing else, it suggests a more turbulent environment than we've had since last year's tariff dip.

I don't think it will hurt to keep some extra powder dry.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] One month into 2026 and here's the roundup so far........................ Tom's...

OldAIMGuy — 2/2/2026 2:53:42 PM

One month into 2026 and here's the roundup so far........................

Tom's IRA (VUG + Cash run with AIM since January, 2024)

(Cash = 22%, -1% in January, net RMDs)

Tom's IRA with 10 company stocks (each AIM'd independently)

(26% Cash, +7.3% in January; net RMDs)

S&P 500 equal weight business sectors (each AIM'd independently)

(19% Cash, +2.2% in January)

9 International style type ETF Composite (each AIM'd independently)

(30% Cash, +4.7% in January)

Overall, a good start to the year.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Two of the MRI's components are in their Caution territory this week. The Relati...

OldAIMGuy — 2/2/2026 12:57:56 PM

Two of the MRI's components are in their Caution territory this week. The Relative Valuation and Divergence indexes both share this honor. Investors seem less sure of grand gains in stocks as both the number of new 52 week highs and lows rise to worrisome levels. This is taking place with an overall market that needs quarterly earnings reports to come in at strong levels to maintain valuations.

The MRI comes in at 37% suggested reserve cash for future buying. The message is that upside potential right now isn't as strong as downside risk. The MRI's Oscillator shows +5 indicating risk is on the rise.

From Value Line's "Appreciation Potential" data comes the v-Wave's review. It shows 34% suggested cash, steady from last week, but hardly in a relaxed position.

Seeing the indexes' slopes flatten out here while measured risk remains in the caution territory does give one reason to reflect on portfolio makeup and available liquidity. Everyone loves to bargain shop and liquidity is needed for that activity. Right now it's hard to find a bargain, however.

If we look at Vanguard's Growth fund divided by their Value fund, we see there's been a shift toward Value in recent times. (overall it shows this by moving downward)

Not since the terrible tariff scare last Spring have we seen this sort of move. Are investors shifting their portfolios toward Value or have they just stopped funding the Growth side? We'll keep an eye on this ratio going forward for clues about this riddle.

Value Line continues to maintain their Growth model portfolio with no changes again this week. Here's their current list:

There are some relatively high P/Es here but also some tempting lower ones, too.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] In no particular order, here's how 2025 finished up the year: Simple IRA Portfo...

OldAIMGuy — 1/5/2026 2:22:29 PM

In no particular order, here's how 2025 finished up the year:

Simple IRA Portfolio (VUG, AWF + Cash)

Tom's 10 public stocks portfolio (net of RMDs, in IRA)

U.S. Business sector ETF portfolio

Ex US ETF portfolio of 9 style funds

All in all, a pretty good year.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Year over Year review: My risk indicators remain flat in their caution zones. U...

OldAIMGuy — 11/3/2025 11:29:28 AM

Year over Year review:

My risk indicators remain flat in their caution zones. Upside potential still seems to be weaker than downside potential risk. My MRI is now in its 17th week of being cautious. Of the previous 52 weeks, 34 of them have been in the Cautious territory. Over this time frame, the S&P500 has risen 17.8% and the NASDAQ Composite has risen 28.1%. So, those who have participated in the markets have enjoyed some nice gains. It's been a great time for funding one's "insurance" in the form of liquidity for future storms.

My IRA has risen 27.3% YOY even while carrying a 20+% average cash position. (34% ROCAR)

My U.S. Domestic ETF portfolio has risen 12.8% YOY while carrying an average 18% cash burden. (15.6% ROCAR)

My International portfolio of ETFs has risen 16.5% YOY with an average 25% burden of cash in reserve. (22% ROCAR)

My 10 stock portfolio IRA is up 35.1% YOY even with a 23% average cash burden. (45% ROCAR)

All in all, this feels like a very good year so far. We'll see how December 31st treats us! I don't feel the performance loss because of the cash as a problem as it is the fuel needed should the markets come unglued. I'll be rebuilding share inventories with that cash at far better prices than we have today.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom
(Note: ROCAR = Return on average Capital At Risk)

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Our v-Wave seems to want to float here right on the edge of its Caution range. A...

OldAIMGuy — 10/6/2025 10:59:50 AM

Our v-Wave seems to want to float here right on the edge of its Caution range. As can be seen, it's been stuck here for several months with the last relief being in March-April of this year.

We don't get any better feel from the SignalPoint Market Risk Indicator (MRI). It's now in its 13th week of showing Caution with no relief. One component (Relative Valuation) stubbornly won't give up on its worrisome Caution signal. The other three MRI components are at the high end of their neutral ranges and threatening to cross into Caution. Again, the only relief from the cautionary levels occurred last March-April.

While we can't see the whites of the Bear's Eyes yet, it doesn't mean we shouldn't be AIMing in that general direction! Keep your Powder Dry and, like the Boy Scouts, Be Prepared!

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Re: Performance of Investments - Tom's Accounts September and the first 3 quart...

OldAIMGuy — 10/3/2025 9:50:53 AM

Re: Performance of Investments - Tom's Accounts

September and the first 3 quarters of 2025 have been pretty good so far.

International ETF Portfolio

U.S. Domestic Business Sector ETF Portfolio

10 Stock Composite Portfolio

Tom's IRA History with Twinvest and AIM

With all these gains, what could possibly go wrong? Well, the v-Wave isn't exactly in a relaxing posture these days and neither is the MRI. I'm glad AIM has guided my cash reserves higher as the markets have climbed.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] This week's Risk Indicators In Full Peacock Colors! v-Wave.................. [g...

OldAIMGuy — 9/28/2025 9:54:21 AM

This week's Risk Indicators In Full Peacock Colors!

v-Wave..................

The v-Wave long term is unchanged this week at 34% suggested cash held in Reserve.

SignalPoint's Market Risk Indicator (MRI)

I note this week in Value Line's "Best/Worst Performers - Latest 13 Weeks" that the best performing stock is up 282% while the worst is down only 39.6%. To make the Best list it takes a 13 week gain of 72.2% while to make the Worst requires a 13 week loss of just 23.5%. Historically, since 1982 when I started keeping this data, this sort of data describes a speculative market and caution is advised.

If we 'magnaflux' the MRI's data, we have two components cautious (Relative Valuation and Speculation) and two rising, but neutral (Divergence and IPO Activity). Combined, we see the MRI at 37% suggested cash for diversified portfolios (unchanged) with the MRI Oscillator showing +3 - modest upward risk pressure.

The only "positive" I can see is that there's a lot of market watchers who think this is an over-cooked market. That might actually help the markets if investors start showing more caution. Last week's Advance/Decline data for the NYSE and Nasdaq Composite both show more decliners than advancers. Further, the number of New 52 Week Lows is growing even while the number of New 52 week Highs remains large.

Are these Storm Clouds gathering???

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] When should we switch from Alka-Seltzer MAALOX? It appears we should have both o...

OldAIMGuy — 8/11/2025 11:15:36 AM

When should we switch from Alka-Seltzer MAALOX? It appears we should have both on hand. The Wall Street Casino is still in full swing with the tables crowded.

There doesn't appear to be any lack of enthusiasm again this week. But, we see that again this week three of the four MRI Components are in their own Caution territory as is the overall MRI reading. This week's suggested cash reserve comes in at 38% for diversified portfolios. That's up another point from a week ago. The MRI Oscillator is showing +3, or moderate upward risk pressure. This suggests following advice to take some profits and cap equity risk exposure as being prudent.

Value Line's "Appreciation Potential" black box tells a slightly different story when converted into the v-Wave. Here we see the v-Wave actually declining slightly (one point) and hovering right around the cautionary boundary. At 32% suggested cash for the 3-5 year time horizon, it's still a long way from the Proactive zone where we'd feel safer with a higher Equity/Cash ratio.

For both the v-Wave and the MRI, it appears making new speculative investments might best be delayed at least until we see these measures back to their median levels. Looking back over time we see that upside potential from lower risk entries has been greater.

Speaking of new equity ideas, Value Line was busy this week in their Model III portfolio (above average 3-5 year appreciation potential). They removed Enovis (ENOV) from the list after a short stay of just about 10 months. During that time the share price dropped about 17%. This apparently wasn't one of their better additions. ( Link schrts.co ) They replaced ENOV with Trinity Industries (TRN) in the hope of a rebound in their stock. Good bookings for more new rail cars is their main reason for optimism. There's also a reasonable yield at the current share price of over 4%.
schrts.co

Here's a look at the overall Portfolio Model III:

Best regards,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Market Risk Report Our Divergence Index (Modified Fosback High/Low Logic) rose t...

OldAIMGuy — 8/4/2025 12:44:09 PM

Market Risk Report
Our Divergence Index (Modified Fosback High/Low Logic) rose to its Caution territory and threw its weight into the mix this week. It indicates investors are somewhat confused as to the market's next direction. We now have 3 of the 4 MRI components showing Caution. (Divergence, Valuation and Speculation)

As mentioned before, the MRI has a bit of data lag in it as both Value Line and Barron's both just publish once a week. Those are the two sources of data used for calculating the MRI each week. Even so, this week the MRI rises two points to 37% suggested cash to be held in reserve for diversified portfolios. The MRI Oscillator sits at +6 indicating significant upward risk pressure.

Our v-Wave market risk indicator remains unchanged for the 3-5 year time horizon but is up on the 18 Month view. Again this week it is suggesting 34% cash be held for diversified portfolios. This is a bit less than the SignalPoint MRI, but both are suggesting we would be prudent to keep some powder dry here.

No changes were made to Value Line's long term growth model again this week. Overall, it's having a pretty good year so far. (Model Portfolio III, Value Line Selection & Opinion section)

In the meantime, my Equity Warehouse continues to have a pretty good year as well. Here's the domestic business sector ETF composite results:

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Two of the Market Risk Indicators remain in their cautionary territory - the Rel...

OldAIMGuy — 7/29/2025 10:17:34 AM

Two of the Market Risk Indicators remain in their cautionary territory - the Relative Valuation Index and the Speculation Index. These two overwhelm the other two which are currently neutral. Even so, the MRI didn't rise this week in risk profile and remains at 35% suggested cash for diversified portfolios. The MRI Oscillator, which suggests risk pressure, shows up at +5, a little less than last week's +7.

Clearly the trend hasn't been one that should have investors relaxed. Here's what the Speculation Index looks like right now:

As quickly as money exited the markets back in March/April, that money moved very quickly back to equities. Is it "too much, too fast?" It now takes a company's stock over a 92% gain in the latest 13 weeks to make Value Line's "Best Performers" list. Compare that to the loss of just 16% over the same time frame for a stock to be on the "Worst Performers" list. We see the imbalance with the Speculation Index histogram.

The v-Wave is at its cautionary threshold but has stabilized for now.

With a busy earnings report week this week, maybe we'll have news that will soften these cautionary indicators. That remains to be seen. Trade talks over the weekend sounded okay, but this AM the markets are a bit soft. Maybe tariff talks don't have the driving force they did back in March/April of this year. As always, we'll be watching to see how the markets do this week.

Last week we saw the Emerging Markets and other international ETFs rise a bit more. That prompted an inventory reduction in the DEM sleeve of 5% of shares.

The old saying is, "Plan the Trade, then Trade the Plan."

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Re: U.S. Sector ETF "GAINS" Image....... I was able to capture this image from ...

OldAIMGuy — 7/25/2025 9:12:15 AM

Re: U.S. Sector ETF "GAINS" Image.......

I was able to capture this image from the Schwab account.

I like those green bubbles! (the red bubbles are ST Govt ETF to MMF transactions to provide cash for buying into the Tariff Tantrums)

Best wishes,
OAG

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Here's what it looks like over a longer term.......................................

OldAIMGuy — 7/24/2025 9:26:30 AM

Here's what it looks like over a longer term......................................

Date Range - 01/01/2023 to 07/24/2025
Portfolio Gain/Loss Percentage
US Business Sector ETFs 99.91% Success
International "Style" ETFs 93.19%
Tom's IRA 89.94%
Ultimate Buy/AIM portf 88.02%
Sandbox of 10 stocks 79.62%

Note: my IRA, Ultimate Buy/AIM and Sandbox portfolios all have required minimum distributions now which force some selling to rebalance those accounts after the RMDs. The "taxable" accounts don't have this issue and seem to do better.
Best wishes,
OAG

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Re: Reviewing our results................. I noted today when looking at my Sch...

OldAIMGuy — 7/24/2025 9:00:32 AM

Re: Reviewing our results.................

I noted today when looking at my Schwab accounts that they have a heading called "Realized Gain/Loss." When checking my various portfolios for the Year To Date, I find my ratio is generally above 90% gains with some being at 99+%. In most cases, for the YTD the only losses were in short term bond funds I use for "cash equivalent" storage. They are miniscule losses compared to the various account's gains.

So, if you happen to have a Schwab account, check out this feature. I think if our AIM activities can give us 90% gain success, that speaks well for what we're doing. 2025 hasn't offered a lot of trading in my AIM accounts, but the success ratio is significant and I think Mr. Lichello would be pleased.

This type of feature might be available on other brokerage sites, but I don't have a way of checking.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] I met up with Ferris over the weekend and we had a Day Off. So the report's a da...

OldAIMGuy — 7/22/2025 10:14:26 AM

I met up with Ferris over the weekend and we had a Day Off. So the report's a day late this week.

(Road America, near Turn 3)

Our R&R didn't help the market risk outlook, however. It appears both Valuations and also Speculation continued very close to where they were the previous week. SignalPoint's Market Risk Indicator (MRI) ticked up another point to an indicated 35% suggested cash held in reserve for diversified stock/fund portfolios. The MRI Oscillator remained at +7 showing continued strong upward risk pressure.

This new period of Caution seems to also have been realized in the flattening out of the S&P 500 last week.

Value Line's "Appreciation Potential" data is used to calculate the v-Wave. While it's a 'black box' as far as what is used to calculate it, its long term consistent pattern makes it useful as our v-Wave base.

Here we see the slope of the risk profile flattening a bit more than the MRI on both the 18 month and 3-5 year time frames. Even so, they are still at their cautionary ranges. The v-Wave is suggesting 34% reserve of cash to be held for future buying should the market prices sag here. This level is unchanged this week. The shorter term (18 month) did drop significantly this week, from 41% to 33%.

With both market risk indicators being in agreement and yet determined from two different data streams, it would appear we should expect the broad market indexes to stall in their rebounds from April's lows. While at or slightly above earlier highs, they may have gone as far as they can go for now.

I don't see our cautionary levels as a sign of a market Crash, but just caution. Then again, neither did Ferris and Friends...................

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] For those of you who've been investing and AIMing for a while, I thought this hi...

OldAIMGuy — 7/11/2025 10:09:59 AM

For those of you who've been investing and AIMing for a while, I thought this history from the start of 1982 might be helpful..............

Those precious moments when most of the MRI's components align in their "Proactive" range were times of high stress for investors and AIM's Savings and Loan department. The Purchasing Department's people were working overtime to get large amounts of inventory in the Equity Warehouse. The last, very quick, event was the Covid scare.

Happy Historical Perspective,
OAG Tom

[OldAIMGuy] Let's open with an investing haiku............ Back flirting Caution Fundamenta...

OldAIMGuy — 7/11/2025 10:08:43 AM

Let's open with an investing haiku............

Back flirting Caution
Fundamental limits stretch
In "Spandex" market.

That should set the tone for what we're seeing in the SignalPoint MRI and the v-Wave for this week. Three of the MRI's components rose in risk measure this week. Currently there are three neutral and only one cautious (Relative Valuation) but the Speculation Index is now borderline cautious also.

Overall, the MRI is close to crossing into its composite "caution" range. The MRI Oscillator shows +5, indicating significant upward risk pressure. Suggested Cash Reserve is 32% again this week (for diversified portfolios).

The v-Wave, based in Value LIne's "Appreciation Potential" data, is unchanged this week for the 3-5 Year time frame. Risk rose this week for the shorter term 18 Month horizon, however. Again, it seems to indicate the market recovery is a bit too much, too quickly. The v-Wave remains at 33% suggested cash held in reserve. The shorter term v-Wave rose 5 points.

So, it appears the fabric of the market is being stretched a bit. This doesn't mean it's about to go down. What these two indicators suggest is that upside potential is somewhat limited currently. We've seen many times in the past where markets can exist at relatively high risk for long periods and even advance. The risk level does suggest that limiting one's portfolio value expansion might be wise. To me, this is a time to make small, incremental sales to keep a lid on dollars at risk. The cash generated has a reasonable yield while we await an opportunity to re-deploy it.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Six Month Report on Portfolios at my Equity Warehouse........................ A...

OldAIMGuy — 7/3/2025 10:39:10 AM

Six Month Report on Portfolios at my Equity Warehouse........................

As a point of reference, the S&P 500 YTD is up 5.5%.

My IRA (Former Twinvest, now being managed with AIM)

10 Stock Composite

10 Business Sector ETF Composite Portfolio

9 Style based International ETFs (Small, Mid and Large Cap in both Growth and Value plus Small and Large Emerging Markets and International REIT ETFs)

The real surprise is how well the International portfolio has done this year. Adding over 16% for the YTD on top of good performance since the end of '22, this portfolio and its "diversification" added overall to my account has helped nicely.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Re: v-Wave and MRI..................... It appears these two are again almost b...

OldAIMGuy — 6/30/2025 9:00:55 AM

Re: v-Wave and MRI.....................

It appears these two are again almost back in sync. The v-Wave 3-5 Year is now at 33% suggested cash and the MRI rose a point this week to 32%.
I highlighted the Tariff Trauma period since both indicators read this correctly as being a short term risk reduction and buying opportunity.

It would appear from the MRI's data that we're still looking at valuations as the main risk component that is worrisome. Share priced have risen back to where the average P/E for the Value Line 1700 stocks is now 18.1.The rest of the MRI components are in their neutral territory.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] Again this week, international risk activities occurred after the equity markets...

OldAIMGuy — 6/23/2025 10:34:19 AM

Again this week, international risk activities occurred after the equity markets were closed for the weekend. Whether this was intentional or not is not something I am privileged to know. However, it does mean that SignalPoint and v-Wave market risk indicators are updated with only information through last Friday's close. Even so, we see the SignalPoint Market Risk Indicator rising another point to 31% suggested cash and its associated Oscillator at +6, indicating strong upward risk pressure.

Three of the four MRI components rose in their own risk territories helping to push this upward in risk profile. While still two points shy of its Caution threshold, we acknowledge the trend.

The v-Wave market risk indicator is in harmony with the MRI showing increased risk from the market lows, but it remained steady through last Friday's close.

At 33% suggested cash reserve, it's on its Caution threshold.

While neither indicator is designed as a "risk on/risk off' device, both are suggested significant reserves of cash. Cash is the insurance policy of our Equity Warehouses. While it doesn't prevent downturns, it is there to help us recover from them. At 4.34% yield on the 13 Week Treasury, it is offering a healthy improvement over Value Line's average dividend of just 2.2% (median for the last 40 years). Both risk indicators suggest it would be good advice to follow any inventory reduction signals from Mr. Lichello's AIM algorithm.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom
PS: no changes were shown in Value Line's 3-5 year growth model portfolio this week.

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

[OldAIMGuy] It doesn't appear that Value Line's data reflects the international news started...

OldAIMGuy — 6/16/2025 10:24:04 AM

It doesn't appear that Value Line's data reflects the international news started on Friday.

Sometimes it takes a week or so for the slack to get taken up in the data stream.

The v-Wave 3-5 Year suggested cash is 33% where the MRI shows 30%Both are up 1% from last week. The v-Wave is now just one point below its Caution range where the MRI still needs to climb to 33%. Both trends are similar but move at slightly different paces.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....