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Technology Stocks : OLED Universal Display Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chessboard_andy who wrote (25879)4/21/2021 12:47:15 PM
From: slacker7112 Recommendations

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Timing around the Q2 earnings release in July seems to be the key for CapEx announcements.

That is close enough for me. The official announcement doesn't matter much anyway. They have yet to officially announce the Guangzhou expansion but the Korean press is already saying that they are signing contracts for equipment.

If an announcement is coming in July, they will likely give some hints that they are considering it in their current earnings call.

One of the key reasons in favor of 10.5G glass was the extreme level of waste with 65" and 77" screens. Careful implementation of MMG mitigates that issue immensely. There is obvious demand for the 48" and 32" screens that can be built alongside the big screens to get back to 85%+ glass utilization. Perfecting, refining and speeding up MMG seems like a much more straight-forward engineering challenge.

The exact economics of the various fab sizes is hard to ascertain but I would note that LCD fabs can (and do) use MMG but Samsung is closing their Gen 8 LCD fabs due to competition from Gen 10.5 fabs in China. My guess is that despite the efficiencies, MMG adds to the cost of production and the fact that the very largest TV sizes (>80") arent supported hurts the overall profitability of the smaller fabs.

Regardless though, any new capacity should make sense at this point.

If LGD doesn't start new capacity this year, then we'll likely see TV panel shipments max out at roughly 10m units until a printable technology comes along. That would mean ink jet (which would be terrible for UDC) or waiting for OVJP (a 3-5 year pause would also be terrible for UDC).