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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (60925)2/24/2002 1:25:36 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
I have a personal bright side to your scenario. My wife wants a "beach house" in Rio Del Mar, a community a few minutes south of Santa Cruz. If my scenario unfolds, I will need to do well enough in the market to pay $500-750K, while if you are correct, I will be able to get the same house for $150-200K.

To: orkrious who wrote (60925)2/25/2002 3:37:19 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 70976
>>In case you haven't noticed, the society at large is experiencing nothing like the Great Depression.

And it likely won't. But it's going to get much worse than it is. Wait until the overleveraged consumers begin to cut back.<<

I think they already have. I think credit card purchases dropped sharply in the fourth quarter (one of the reasons why Christmas was lousy for the retailers), and the savings rate edged up.

>>The economic recovery is at hand

No it's not. Things haven't begun to get bad.<<

Both unemployment statistics and anecdotal evidence from a variety of sources suggest that hiring is picking up. Absent external shocks, more hiring will translate to more disposable income, and therefore more purchasing by consumers.

What evidence are you seeing that things are still deteriorating?