SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Maurice Winn who wrote (157846)5/15/2020 10:07:13 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206280
 
Re << You said the inflation of everything we need and the devaluation if everything we have >>

Yes, I found first explicit call dated 2005 02 19 but “deflation” instead of “devaluation” - close enough for government work



I followed up on Message 25011682 (dated 2008 Sept 30 shortly before the last great crater-ing)


And I think we are now tee-ed up





I expect gold-suppression soonest, and when so, need to consider all-in after discerning how-deep the suppression - what a game! Silver might be better, less to fall and more to rise.







To: Maurice Winn who wrote (157846)5/16/2020 1:36:55 AM
From: TobagoJack5 Recommendations

Recommended By
bull_dozer
frankl
marcher
Secret_Agent_Man
SirWalterRalegh

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206280
 
Hello Maurice, Re <<You predicted this in about 2002 = inflationary depression. But you said it would be about 2018. You said the inflation of everything we need and the devaluation if everything we have. Teotwawki is looming large.>>

(1) Besides the factual that it was not 2002 but 2005, as far as I can determine thanks to the search function of SI siliconinvestor.com

this day bull_dozer reminded me of something else Message 32737596 that showed beating Buffett forbes.com is not difficult and almost child's play

(2) I was prompted to search SI archive and I came up w/ this post by me to you way back circa 2001 Message 15912646

about coconuts, paper coconuts, sausages and snausages


As events turned out, since that time, my largest winners were HK industrial real estate, and gold, in terms of unleverage gain averaging 10X and 2X, taking into account of additions along the way that pollutes the absolute single-point data, with neither about to give-back much if anything

So the strategy of saving in gold, but using all manner of mining techniques to get more gold, by sausages and snausages, seem to be sound, and may be sounder-still going forward

(3) Do you remember our dialogues w/r to QCOM? The first of many was this one circa 2001 February Message 15410107



etc etc

(4) In the meantime, prompted by bull_dozer's post, I did a few casual back-of-the-envelop searches that may help us to formulate a strategy going forward, the point of the thread cafe, so let us get data-intensive but data-simple longtermtrends.net , to discern what be best for savings as opposed for speculation by which we obtain more savings, for reasonable timespans that matter

1982 when I started work and bought my first of many eternal coins, that which I still own


1999 when I joined SI


2008 when you-know-what


1970, practically speaking, start of awareness


(5) Having figured out the way to go for savings, as opposed to speculation, we then must consider what amount of upside still might be wagering in the gold : DJIA ratio macrotrends.net and in the gold : silver ratio

(5-i) Yes, I know, gold & silver does not pay dividends, however paltry

(5-ii) but Put / Call option premiums are no different than dividends and better, pays in good as well as bad times, plus ...

(5-iii) gold & silver, agilely accumulated and astutely stored, incurs no estate tax

(5-iv) Seems to me, under the circumstances of fiat money and peaking valuation of speculative assets, we need to consider gold and silver, first paper gold and paper silver and paper coconuts, and secondly the real thing, and how best to use the power of the paper to accumulate the solidity of the actual

I seek your feedback, for I need to know where I might be wrong, especially if I am in danger of being very wrong.

1915, eternity, practically





To: Maurice Winn who wrote (157846)5/17/2020 4:15:10 AM
From: TobagoJack5 Recommendations

Recommended By
arun gera
bull_dozer
Follies
ggersh
Pogeu Mahone

  Respond to of 206280
 
Good Sunday to you Maurice. Following up to my note to you here Message 32737826 re faith, I reviewed the macro-scape this day and I was reminded of this video which you had indicated you enjoyed back 2002 11 22


release Message 18263271



In the video JPM, Dow and gold were mentioned, and in your response QCOM was referenced Message 18264858

On that release date,

- DOW was @ 8,896 (now @ 23,685) => 2.66X (after drastic massaging culling out the laggards)
- QCOM was @ 26.61 (now @ 75.77) =>2.85X
- JPM was @ 25.17 (now @ 85.9) => 3.41X
- Silver was @ 4.52 (now @ 16.61) => 3.67
- Gold was @ 320 per troy ounce (now @ 1,740) => 5.44X

As events have turned out w/r to Gold (sorry, I meant GOLD), Dow, JPM, and QCOM, did not come out well for three of the four, and am guessing the gaps shall widen further going forward.

It is not too late to engage w/ the true, elemental, primordial, eternal, faithful, and for sure metallic savings.

Conclusions, since 22nd November 2002, it has been obvious and indubitably true that:
- Passive investing is for the unfortunates
- Broad market along with its many constituent parts have been nothing but imperfect indicators for proxy monetary inflation
- Whatever productivity gains had much more to do w/ global equalisation of cost and revenue, and by inference, income

Question: where might we be at in 2026, and 2032? We shall find out in a few months, and then a few more months.

I implore you, do something, anything, before it becomes truly too late. I suspect the Nasdaq shall crater big-time, at least against gold.



Here is the script, free of charge from Mises in handy PDF format mises.org

Even a synopsis for folks who cannot bother to read








To: Maurice Winn who wrote (157846)6/22/2020 6:09:21 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206280
 
MQ, following on to Message 32798494

I believe that we might be well past the point of 'turmoil' and well on way to convulsion, chaos, ... pandemonium. I suspect the thread of happenings generate own momentum.

the trouble w/ long accumulated net-accretive-momentum that overcame long in-place inertia is that it would take something called 'equal and opposite' something to stop whatever moving faster and faster, and with the gauge going linear, parabolic, hyperbolic, exponential, asymptotic, and then either to infinity, or end in cascading systemic breakdown if the system is not built for infinity.

I gathered most systems are not built for infinity w/ exception on perhaps one. what do you think?