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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sun Tzu who wrote (150856)11/3/2004 12:10:28 PM
From: Michael Watkins  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
I predict that by 2008 we will be sitting on a massive debt and an all time low USD

The all time low USD will happen much faster than that...

Given the current account deficit and its rate of change, sooner, than later.

It would not surprise me to see a sudden dislocation of some sort shake up world currency markets, only this time, its going to be the US that is in the news, not a back water state, not some place like Russia or Argentina.

Euro against USD is mere cents from its all time high here....



To: Sun Tzu who wrote (150856)11/3/2004 11:01:59 PM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
Hi SunTzu; Re: "I predict that by 2008 we will be sitting on a massive debt and an all time low USD. Social security will be in total shambles."

I agree, but if Kerry had been elected, a pretty much identical result would happen. The economy, with its long term boiling, is more powerful than any president.

Conservatives have been expecting the social security to go bankrupt for decades, along with the crashing dollar and massive debt. What's more, it's happened before.

Re: "Dems will come to power on a platform of social equity and better social services."

Frankly, I'm surprised that they didn't come to power with this election. I think their problem is basically cultural. If the Democrats had managed to cough up a Jimmy Carter, instead of Kerry, they'd probably be celebrating right now. Instead, what they did was to motivate the cultural conservatives to stand around in the rain and vote.

Re: "Those professionals who have not been replaced by Indian and Chinese workers will refuse to pay the higher taxes and will move out of America."

That is ridiculous. This country has been running booms and busts, and trading places between business and labor interests for a couple hundred years. One more swing isn't going to destroy the old girl.

The economy is not healthy, and the Democrats should have won the election. That they did not is due, in my opinion, that they are no longer the party of labor, but instead are the party of social liberalism. To win, the Democrats need to win back the "Reagan Democrats". It's been cultural issues that have driven those voters into Republican hands. Over and over I hear old Democrats talk about how the party abandoned them.

-- Carl