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Strategies & Market Trends : Ted Warren's Investolator -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (1656)	3/12/2025 9:11:27 PM
From: Harvey Specter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1735

Thank you for the reply. I find the long-term base breakouts to be the most reliable and fruitful (more reliable and fruitful than buying on breaks above gradual downtrend lines with a few exceptions). SFM is a prime example of what I look for. Notice it broke out of a six year long base in 2022 then the overall bear market at the time temporarily dragged it down. However, if you held on you would be sitting on a 329% gain today. Below it are a couple of examples from Ted's book. I use position sizing of 5% per position with no stops and cast a wide net so no dog can wreck my portfolio because I have many other stocks that can make up for the duds. I did the math and hypothetically if you averaged a 200% or more gain on your winners (what Ted says in his book that you should average on long-term base breakouts) and worst case scenario you average a 100% loss on your losers, you'll breakeven if you're right a third of the time. If you're right more than a third of the time you're profitable, and if you're right 50% of the time or more you'll make a lot of money. I focus primarily on long-term base breakouts like the ones in the examples and will only buy breaks above a gradual downtrend line if there's already a long-term base formed and I'm either buying within the long-term base or a breakout out of a long-term triangle base.

To: robert b furman who wrote (1656)	5/11/2025 5:40:57 PM
From: Harvey Specter	Respond to of 1735

Hi Robert, I have another question about Ted's newsletter from back in the day. Did he ever roast/criticize people in his newsletter like he does in the book? I do wonder if he ever roasted Bill O'Neil and/or Investor's Business Daily (IBD) in his newsletter. If you don't know who Bill O'Neil was, he was a disciple of Gerald Loeb. Ted roasted Gerald Loeb in his book (he doesn't ever mention him by name but you can tell that is who he is referring to in the excerpt below based on the clues he provides). Bill O'Neil basically preached the same thing as Loeb - that you have to cut your losses short/use stops (which Ted was adamantly against). IBD also explicitly does high level investing which Ted was against except in cases where there are long-term high level consolidations. You often won't see IBD recommend a stock until after it's already up several hundred percent LOL and they also eschew low priced stocks that are often actual bargains. Mark Minervini is another one from that "tree" - just a few days ago on May 7th he was talking about how GRPN had tried to breakout and "failed" - of course he was looking at the daily chart and not the monthly. The next day the stock ripped on earnings LOL. If Minervini bothered to check the monthly chart he would have seen it was emerging out of a long-term base. My father actually managed to buy GRPN at $17 and change using Ted Warren's method and sat through the little shakeout that Minervini thought was a breakout failure now he's sitting on a good sized profit. I didn't buy GRPN until the breakout above $20 after earnings so I'm sitting on a smaller profit in it. I would imagine if Ted were around today he would be on Twitter criticizing all of the IBD guys like Minervini haha.