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Technology Stocks : KMI- a fallen high dividend yielder - for how long? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Lance Bredvold who wrote (298)11/26/2024 8:08:46 PM
From: E_K_S1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Lance Bredvold

  Respond to of 334
 
Still holding an oversized position. No recent Buys in KMI

Have in ROTH (avg cost $24.55 +14%)
small buys in 2/2023; 8/2021; 7/2021/7/2020/6/2020 ($14/share-$17/share)
buys in 4/2014 & 3/2013 underwater at/near $32/share

Taxable Account:
KMI Buys several throughout 2020 $11-$12; 2018 $12.25 (total shares in taxable account +134%)

WMB also bought over sized position in 2020 avg cost $12.75/share; peeled off 10% this month; WMB hit $60 an all time high Last Friday. (in taxable account +357%)
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I do think w/ the Trump agenda these pipeline company's will continue to run higher. KMI could see highs at/near $44; WMB all ready at All Time Highs.

My sell strategy is based on (1) Price and (2) div yield. These stocks are somewhat cyclical but w/ focus on less regulation (ie FERC), using clean NG & LNG and volume's of gas/oil moved through pipelines will increase, so revenues s/d increase.

As long as div yield is at/near 4%, I will hold. KMI div yield 4.02% vs WMB 3.14%

You can see the largest gains occurred buying during the cycle low of in 2020/2021.

I bought these for income but nice to see these capital gains. Plan is to scale out of WMB in 2025 at/above $60/share; similar plan for KMI at/above $35-$45. Expect to see div increases in KMI as vol of gas move increases.

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As far as covered calls; another value investor did that w/ his WMB staggard at/above $30/share and missed the huge run past $45 to $60. I do not do covered calls anymore. Just sell shares and scale out of the position over 8-18 months watching FCF & earnings. Stayed tuned to news on new projects and capital investments into new pipeline projects. Will hold for most/all of Trump's administration.

FWIW, WMB's price move accelerated in 2024 from $34 to $60. You could see this in KMI in 2025!

Hold on and have fun ride



To: Lance Bredvold who wrote (298)11/27/2024 9:18:18 AM
From: robert b furman3 Recommendations

Recommended By
candsrr
Lance Bredvold
toccodolce

  Respond to of 334
 
Hi Lance,

KMI is still my largest position.

I've had a small position since before the dividend reduction.

Post the dividend reduction I soll many puts far out in time and get a lot of them assigned to me.

I sold puts every 90 days for all of 2020 to 2024. As most did not get assigned I accumulated the cash and sold a higher strike price wanting to get them assigned. That is how I built the position.

My adjusted cost is $14.24 which is yielding a bit over 8%. Above my purchase expectation - the result of return of capital over many years.

It looks like the return of capital is fading to zero, so I expect to hold these shares for quite a while as I'm retired and have always considered them some very safe income.

KMI has worked their debt to below their goal (which is low for the industry). I expect them to fund their acquisitions internally and with any excess cash flow begin to buy back shares plus modestly increase share buybacks.

Their long touted dividend rate of $1.25 has proven delayed. With the debt going down I approve of the delay.

I expect the buyback to improve EPS slowly into the future.

I like companies where the management holds a lot of shares. KMI fits that bill. They have a common interest of creating a strong dividend revenue flow out in the future.

I expect to be a long term buy and hold owner. It has been my investment style for most of my life.

I'm of the opinion that US exported natural gas (LNG) will become much more valuable as our oil and gas fields reach a plateau in production (not counting ANWAR). LNG will triple to quintuple as the US rate approaches the Asian and/or European rate. That price will fluctuate with weather and geography.

KMI with their now expanded storage capabilities, will allow them to produce themselves and store others, which with volatility will provide an opportunity to grow margins. If their charge BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE PRODUCT IS INCLUDED IN THIS BUSINESS, KMI WILL BE A LONG TERM HOME RUN.

I'll hold my shares even if this does not come to fruition.

It could be a very big transaction either way.

E_K_S has a more sophisticated buy/sell regimen than I do. So I pay close attention to his trades.

I have always had undue concentrations of a few stocks.

KMI has been an unexpected over achiever.

I accumulated a lot of shares hoping to simply enjoy the slowly growing dividend over the long term.

That was my plan and I'm sticking to it.

Good to see another poster on this thread.

Hang in there and keep on posting your thoughts - they are valued here!

Bob