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To: Don Green who wrote (42979)7/22/2024 6:32:32 AM
From: Don Green  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 43860
 
"You can just feel it: Let's go"

Data: The Miller Center at the University of Virginia. Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios
President Biden quickly endorsed Vice President Harris for the nomination, as did the Clintons. But the Democratic Party is leaving open the possibility of a competitive nomination process, Mike and Jim write.

  • Former President Obama held off on an endorsement, saying: "We will be navigating uncharted waters in the days ahead."
Between the lines: As we told you in a column two weeks ago, Harris will be almost impossible to beat for the nomination, thanks to endorsements, money, optics and 2028 politics. Given the Democratic base, are you really going to take down the first Black American, the first South Asian American and the first woman to be elected vice president?

  • Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) is making noises about re-registering as a Democrat to take on Harris. There may be other flurries around Democrats who know talk of challenging Harris would bring huge publicity.
?? James Carville, who two weeks ago had advocated for regional town halls to help determine a nominee, now tells us it's too late for such a process. "You can just feel it: Let's go," he said. "I don't have any sense there's time or appetite."

  • Harris immediately enjoyed "broad, swift consolidation" among major Democratic donors, who are feeling optimism for the first time in weeks, the N.Y. Times reports.
  • But Sen. Peter Welch of Vermont, the first Democratic senator to call for Biden to drop out, told CBS' Norah O'Donnell during yesterday's breaking coverage that Harris would "be strengthened by a process that's seen as open." He said the party should "take advantage of the extraordinary energy that's been unleashed by the president's decision ... and show that we're confident about engaging everyday Democrats to participate."


A campaign sign with President Biden's name cut out in Northwood, N.H., yesterday. Photo: Holly Ramer/AP
Carville said the expected convention photo of Harris with Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff and their large blended family will send a message of "change, youth, vigor, different — every f***ing word that counts is in that photograph."

  • "The most thunderous sound in politics is the sound of a turning page," Carville added.
?? What we're hearing: Many top Democrats have reservations about Harris, including the fact that few loyalists have risen with her — a rarity in politics.

  • Two months into the administration, Biden named her to lead diplomatic and other efforts to reduce illegal migration at the Southwest border — one of the top issues former President Trump will try to use against her.
  • Watch for Trump to claim the fix is in by the "real powers"— an argument Elon Musk made mere minutes after Biden's announcement. Some of the claims are contradictory. David Sacks, a top Silicon Valley venture capitalist who spoke at the GOP convention in Milwaukee, yesterday took to Musk's X to assert that Harris had "staged a coup."
Threat level: Democrats tell us Harris instantly puts reproductive rights at the center of the campaign — a potential game-changer. Harris — age 59, making her 19 years younger than Trump — will try to turn the age and fitness issue on the GOP. And as a former San Francisco district attorney and California attorney general, she'll push a "prosecutor vs. convicted felon" frame.

  • Trump officials know there's danger for him in debating a woman with historic status. "When women confront Trump, he can be impolitic and imprudent, and say politically dangerous things," one GOP insider told us.
  • So Trump could alienate women and many other non-MAGA voters the campaign is eyeing. Plus Harris could look better-versed on reproductive rights, and more evocative of the future than the past.


Via Truth Social
?? The other side: Republican officials won't admit it publicly, but they know they were better off running against Biden. The Atlantic's Tim Alberta wrote in a lengthy article before the convention that they're "all but praying that he remains their opponent."

  • Chris LaCivita, co-manager of Trump's campaign, told us his candidate "survived an assassin's bullet. The last thing we are worrying about is Laffin' Kamala" — the nickname Trump recently gave her. "You can move the chairs on a sinking boat all you want ... doesn't change the result," LaCivita added.
  • We obtained a 12-page internal memo showing the Trump campaign was preparing for the possibility of a Biden alternative back in May — with section headings that include "Act of God," "Insider Rebellion" and "Popular Uprising."
The bottom line: If Harris loses, history will likely be harsh on Biden for running again, on aides who concealed his condition, and on Democrats who wanted to coronate Harris rather than letting a process play out.

Go deeper: Jon Meacham sketches in the N.Y. Times the story that "history will tell of Joe Biden. With American democracy in an hour of maximum danger ... [h]e staved off an authoritarian threat at home, rallied the world against autocrats abroad, laid the foundations for decades of prosperity, managed the end of a once-in-a-century pandemic ... History and fate brought him to the pinnacle in a late season in his life, and in the end, he respected fate — and he respected the American people." ( Gift link)