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To: Return to Sender who wrote (89112)10/7/2022 7:59:31 PM
From: Return to Sender2 Recommendations

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Market Snapshot

briefing.com

Dow 29303.54 -625.43 (-2.09%)
Nasdaq 10665.59 -407.57 (-3.68%)
SP 500 3642.69 -101.90 (-2.72%)
10-yr Note -26/32 3.88

NYSE Adv 452 Dec 2563 Vol 1.0 bln
Nasdaq Adv 836 Dec 3181 Vol 4.5 bln


Industry Watch
Strong: --

Weak: Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Materials


Moving the Market
-- September Employment Report fueling concerns over continued unfavorable policy from the Fed

-- Rising Treasury yields

-- Oil prices surging back above $90.00/bbl

-- Weakness in mega cap stocks; weakness in semiconductors after AMD preannouncement







Closing Summary
07-Oct-22 16:20 ET

Dow -630.15 at 29298.82, Nasdaq -420.91 at 10652.25, S&P -104.86 at 3639.73
[BRIEFING.COM] It was a rough session for the stock market on the heels of the September Employment Report. A broad sell off was precipitated by a jobs report that reflected continued strength in the labor market, stoking concerns about continued aggressive rate hikes from the Fed.

Despite today's heavy sell off, the stock market was able to hold onto gains from the big rally on Monday and Tuesday. The S&P 500 was up 1.5% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 2.0% for the week; the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.7% for the week.

The market was led lower today by weak mega cap stocks. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closed down 3.8% versus a 2.8% loss in the S&P 500 and a 2.4% loss in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP).

Semiconductor stocks were another drag on index performance today. The PHLX Semiconductor Index closed with a 6.1% loss after Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 58.44, -9.41, -13.9%) slashed its revenue and gross margin guidance for Q3, citing a "significantly" weaker PC market.

The weak showing from semiconductor stocks contributed to the underperformance of the S&P 500 information technology sector (-4.1%), which closed in last place for the 11 sectors. The info tech sector was able to squeeze out a gain of 1.6% on the week.

The energy sector (-0.7%) spent most of the session in positive territory and closed with the slimmest loss as oil prices surged. WTI crude oil futures rose 4.5% on the day to $92.47/bbl. The sector also logged the biggest gains on the week, up 13.9%.

Decliner led advancers by a greater than 5-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a nearly 4-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.

Rising Treasury yields were a headwind for equities today. The 2-yr note yield rose seven basis points on the day, and ten on the week, to 4.30%. The 10-yr note yield rose six basis points on the day, and eight on the week, to 3.88%.

There is no U.S. economic data of note on Monday.

Reviewing today's economic data:

  • September Nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 (Briefing.com 250,000) following an unrevised 315,000 increase in August
  • September Nonfarm private payrolls increased by 288,000 (Briefing.com consensus 275,000) following a revised 308,000 increase in August (from 308,000)
  • September Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.3% increase in August
  • September Unemployment rate was 3.5% in September (Briefing.com consensus 3.7%) following a 3.7% rate in August
  • September Average workweek totaled 34.5 hours in September (Briefing.com consensus 34.5) following the same number in August
    • Today's release of the Employment Situation report for September reflected continued growth in headline employment and monthly average hourly earnings, giving the Fed room to continue its aggressive rate hike campaign.
  • August Wholesale Inventories were up 1.3% following a 0.6% increase in July
Dow Jones Industrial Average: -19.4% YTD
S&P Midcap 400: -20.2% YTD
S&P 500: -23.6% YTD
Russell 2000: -24.2% YTD
Nasdaq Composite: -31.9% YTD


Market plunging ahead of close
07-Oct-22 15:35 ET

Dow -763.57 at 29165.40, Nasdaq -452.70 at 10620.46, S&P -120.66 at 3623.93
[BRIEFING.COM] The market is plunging to fresh lows heading into the close.

The 2-yr Treasury note yield rose seven basis points today to 4.30% and the 10-yr note yield rose six basis points to 3.88%.

Earlier, August Consumer Credit came in at $23.8 billion following a revised $39.1 billion total in July (from $23.3 billion).

There is no U.S. economic data of note.


HP Inc. falls on cautious PC market commentary from AMD, SHW follows materials sector lower
07-Oct-22 14:25 ET

Dow -625.43 at 29303.54, Nasdaq -407.57 at 10665.59, S&P -101.90 at 3642.69
[BRIEFING.COM] The benchmark S&P 500 (-2.72%) is near session lows at the moment, still entrenched in second place among the major averages.

S&P 500 constituents CVS Health (CVS 88.12, -10.46, -10.61%), HP Inc. (HPQ 25.07, -1.41, -5.32%), and Sherwin-Williams (SHW 206.24, -10.53, -4.86%) are some of today's top underperformers. CVS falters after news overnight that the newly released Star Ratings for Medicare Advantage plans in 2023 lowered the rating for the company's Aetna National PPO plan to 3.5 stars from 4.5, HPQ slips in sympathy to AMD's (AMD 59.36, -8.49, -12.51%) PC market commentary, while SHW lags alongside the inflation-sensitive materials group (XLB 69.59, -1.63, -2.29%).

Meanwhile, Dexcom (DXCM 103.47, +8.26, +8.68%) outperforms after comments from Piper Sandler's Matt O'Brien who said DXCM is likely to reclaim its position as the highest multiple name in diabetes following news of CGM coverage for T2D patients using basal insulin.


Gold falls as jobs data pushes dollar, yields higher
07-Oct-22 14:00 ET

Dow -577.87 at 29351.10, Nasdaq -393.48 at 10679.68, S&P -96.40 at 3648.19
[BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours to go on Friday the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-3.55%) is getting taken to the woodshed, now more than -16% off the 200-day SMA (12,750).

Gold futures settled $11.50 lower (-0.7%) to $1,709.30/oz, pressured by rising yields and a stronger greenback which moved higher in reaction to this morning's jobs data.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up about +0.2% to $112.52.


Microsoft, Intel underperform in DJIA on Friday
07-Oct-22 13:30 ET

Dow -564.35 at 29364.62, Nasdaq -390.67 at 10682.49, S&P -95.06 at 3649.53
[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.89%) is the "best" performing index, albeit carrying losses of more than 560 points.

A look inside the DJIA shows that Microsoft (MSFT 234.68, -12.11, -4.91%), Intel (INTC 25.91, -1.27, -4.67%), and Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA 30.84, -1.41, -4.37%) are among today's top laggards.

Meanwhile, Chevron (CVX 162.83, +1.41, +0.87%) is one of only two names in the index in positive territory.

The DJIA is on pace to end the week +2.22% higher.



DraftKings may become royalty in sports betting space with potential Disney partnership (DKNG)


Whether entertainment and media powerhouse Disney (DIS) would branch out into the lucrative sports betting arena has been a hot topic lately, especially after activist investor Dan Loeb put the issue under the spotlight in mid-August. At that time, it was disclosed that Loeb reestablished a significant stake in DIS, providing him with a platform to push for certain initiatives, including spinning off ESPN in order to open the door to sports betting. About a month later, Loeb surprisingly changed his tune regarding his proposed ESPN spin-off, tweeting that he now has a "better understanding" of DIS's plans for sports.

With The Action Network reporting last night that DIS and online sports betting company DraftKings (DKNG) are nearing a landmark partnership, it's now clear why Loeb has backed off. According to the report, DIS would exclusively license the ESPN brand to DKNG, and integrate live shows and betting odds into game broadcasts. While financial details are unknown -- including the amount of the licensing fee -- this looks like a win-win scenario for both companies.

  • For DKNG, its audience would multiply thanks to ESPN's massive viewership. For context, ESPN's 1Q22 daily viewership during primetime hours soared by 40% yr/yr to 2.07 mln viewers. A seamless avenue for those viewers to simultaneously watch and bet on live sports would be a windfall for DKNG.
  • Currently, DKNG is the second largest online sports betting app in the U.S., behind only privately held FanDuel. A partnership with DIS could give FanDuel a run for its money at the top spot, while distancing itself from other competitors like PENN Entertainment's (PENN) Barstool Sportsbook and Caesar Entertainment's (CZR) Sportsbook.
  • The primary issue for DKNG is how much it would cost to secure a licensing agreement with DIS. Several reports have indicated that DIS is seeking around $3 bln, but that amount doesn't seem to be set in stone. Either way, it will be a substantial sum of money, and DKNG is burning through cash at a rapid rate.
    • For the six months ended June 30, 2022, the company's cash flow from operations was $(529.3) mln.
    • Most likely, the licensing fee would be spread out over a period of time, easing the immediate burden on DKNG. That's good news because the company's balance sheet isn't equipped to handle a huge up-front payment with cash and equivalents of $1.5 bln as of June 30, 2022.
  • For DIS, which already owns a 4% stake in DKNG, the partnership would allow it to capitalize on the fast-growing sports betting market -- without actually having to offer sports bets. The family oriented DIS is never going to offer its own sports book, but this approach further monetizes its sports content, while creating cross-selling opportunities on its direct-to-consumer platforms.
    • As a possible example, a DKNG/ESPN betting show that airs during a live sports broadcast could steer viewers to ESPN+ to access information/stats that could be used to make an informed sports bet.
Although more details are needed, we generally like the idea of DKNG and DIS teaming up. The partnership has the potential to be a game changer for DKNG, and we believe the stock would be much higher today if not for the sharp sell-off across the broader market.




Advanced Micro's guidance cut slams semiconductor space as PC demand continues to unravel (AMD)


It's no secret that the PC market has deteriorated in recent months, but Advanced Micro's (AMD) steep Q3 guidance cut shows that conditions have gone from bad to worse as demand collapses. Due to this weakness, the chip maker now expects revenue in its Client segment (chips for PCs, laptops, notebooks) to plunge by 40% yr/yr, causing it to slash its total revenue outlook by about $1.0 bln to $5.6 bln. A combination of lower Client processor unit shipments, declining ASPs, and a $160 mln charge related to inventory, pressured margins, causing AMD to lower its non-GAAP gross margin guidance to about 50% from 54%.

AMD wasn't the only major semiconductor company to provide a gloomy outlook last night. Samsung (SSNLF) piled on the bad news, reporting that Q3 operating profit declined by 32% -- its first quarterly profit decline in three years -- as sales of 76 trillion won also missed analysts' estimates. As the world's largest chip maker, SSNLF serves a wide range of end markets, including smartphones, laptops, televisions, appliances, and automobiles. Therefore, its bleak performance may be more worrisome from a broader macroeconomic standpoint than AMD's, which solely blamed the eroding PC market for its guidance revision.

Clouds have been gathering in the semiconductor space for some time, especially for companies with heavy exposure to PCs/laptops. On September 29, memory chip maker Micron (MU) reported decent Q4 results, but guided Q1 EPS and revenue far below expectations. This was preceded by weak earnings reports/guidance from NVIDIA (NVDA) in late August, and from Intel (INTC) in late July. Unsurprisingly, NVDA, INTC, and other PC-centric stocks like Dell (DELL) and Logitech (LOGI), are getting hit today on AMD's guidance cut.

What's catching the market off-guard is the speed and the severity of the downturn. It was well understood that the work-from-home boom would eventually fade, leading to a normalization of demand for PCs/laptops. However, even though it's clear that inflation has caused consumers to pull back on spending, few imagined that PC demand would completely evaporate, leaving OEMs with stockpiles of inventory.

As brutal as the PC end market is right now, there are still some pockets of strength for AMD and other chip makers.

  • AMD estimated that Q3 data center revenue jumped by 45% yr/yr to $1.6 bln, illustrating that enterprises and hyper-scalers haven't closed shop as macro-related risks increase. This data point is a positive for companies like NVDA (data center 57% of 2Q23 revenue), Marvell (MRVL), and MU. One important caveat, though, is that AMD's growth is augmented by its acquisition of Xilinx, which closed last February.
  • The automotive end market continues to standout as the electrification and autonomous driving trends continue to evolve. Qualcomm (QCOM), Texas Instruments (TXN), and NXP Semi (NXPI) are a few chip companies that will benefit from robust demand from auto OEMs.
  • Gaming held up reasonably well for AMD, with revenue up by 14% yr/yr. Although the company didn't break out a specific growth rate for gaming in the year-earlier quarter, management characterized gaming demand as "quite strong". Therefore, it's apparent that AMD is lapping a difficult yr/yr comparison.
The main takeaway is that the market has underestimated the severity of the downturn in the PC/laptop market. The work-from-home trend created a massive pull forward in demand as people upgraded their devices and electronics, leaving a void in demand that's expanding as macroeconomic fears intensify. Unfortunately, there's no light at the end of the tunnel at this point -- at least for PC end market. The only silver lining is that large enterprises that are more resilient to economic volatility are still spending on data center investments, although even some of those deals are taking longer to close.




Levi Strauss heads lower on earnings; even top notch brands like Levi's are not immune (LEVI)


Levi Strauss (LEVI -8%) is heading lower today despite the largest jeans brand in the world reporting decent EPS upside for Q3 (Aug) last night. The problem is that LEVI missed on revenue for just the second time since its IPO in March 2019. It also lowered full year guidance pretty substantially. With just one quarter left, that translates into weak guidance for Q4 (Nov) as LEVI expects adjusted EPS of $0.29-0.34 vs $0.41 a year ago.

  • So, what happened? The company describes a confluence of pressures, from inflation to falling consumer sentiment, to rising rates. All resulting in softer consumer demand while it continues to experience supply chain disruptions and a heightened promotional environment. Also, Levi's is a global brand, so FX headwinds contributed to the problems.
  • On the positive side, this was LEVI's higher-ever sales for any Q3 period. Also, the company was able to raise prices and they stuck for the most part, which helped offset significant inflationary cost increases and helped to partially preserve margins. LEVI posted AURs up mid-single digits despite a more promotional environment. Despite the higher prices, adjusted EBIT margin fell to 12.4% from 14.8% a year ago. LEVI did prepare us for a margin decline on its last call but that is a pretty big drop.
  • LEVI made some progress on its efforts to diversify its portfolio and saw continued strong momentum with women's, tops, international and its other brands. Beyond Yoga remains small, but contributed $22 mln to revenue with solid consumer demand. Beyond Yoga also opened its first permanent store in Santa Monica.
  • Looking ahead, LEVI expects the environment to remain challenging over the next few quarters. It plans to reduce inventory buys for the first half of 2023 by approximately 25%. This should enable the company to return to normalized inventory levels in line with revenue growth by the end of Q2 (May). Its outlook reflects a more cautious view with regard to supply chain challenges, particularly in the US into Q4.
Overall, this was a rough quarter for Levi's and the guidance was especially worrisome. It shows that even top notch brands like Levi's are not immune from the pressures retailers are facing. Investors should brace for another rough quarter in Q4 (Nov). And with that report, we should get our first look at FY23 guidance and we think it could be pretty bearish. Perhaps the one saving grace is that the stock has been under pressure for much of the past year, so a lot of bad news is priced in. But we would be cautious about bottom fishing down here just yet.




CVS Health struggles after its Star Rating for its largest insurance plan is cut to 3.5 stars (CVS)


CVS Health (CVS -8%) is struggling today after newly-released 2023 Star Ratings showed that the company's Aetna National PPO plan was cut to 3.5 stars from 4.5. The plan boasts over 1.9 mln members, or 59% of Aetna's Medicare Advantage membership. CVS projects the percentage of Aetna Medicare Advantage members in 4+ Star plans to fall drastically to 21% compared to 87% based on 2022 Star Ratings. Although CVS does not expect the reduced stars to adversely affect its FY22 financials, FY23 and FY24 will be impacted.

What are Star Ratings, and why do they matter so much?

  • Star Ratings, released by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), simply rate health plan quality used in the Health Insurance Marketplace. The criteria consider consumer feedback based on member experience, medical care, and plan administration.
  • These ratings affect health plans' 5% quality bonus paid by the government, used by insurers to increase their benefit offerings, which attracts more enrollees.
  • Although at 3.5 stars, CVS still receives some benefit, it is not the total amount plans receive at the 4+ star level.
Earlier this month, reports were circulating that insurers were concerned about the new Star Ratings. Over the past couple of years, CMS had safeguards for plans that dropped below 4 stars, basically not allowing them to dip into 3-star territory. However, for 2023, these provisions were removed. Also, four Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) measures, all related to Part D drug adherence, became tougher. As a result, CVS's scoring took a hit.

Although it is not showing up in the stock price today, there were still some silver linings. CVS is optimistic that it will be able to mitigate any financial impact of the Star Rating cut on its FY23 outlook, which called for adjusted EPS of $8.10-8.30 and revs of $304-309 bln, including any additional costs incurred to improve 2024 Star Ratings. Also, although FY24 is where things get more challenging since it is when 2023 Star Ratings affect bonus payments, CVS is strategizing to mitigate some of the impacts through its ongoing contract diversification efforts. Furthermore, to achieve its FY24 adjusted EPS target of low double-digit growth yr/yr, CVS is looking at capital deployment alternatives. However, this means that CVS's share repurchase program may be jeopardized.

Overall, with CVS's most extensive healthcare plan seeing its Star Rating cut to 3.5 stars, investors are worried that the sizeable reduction in membership will cause CVS to come up short of meeting its FY23 and FY24 financial goals. Additionally, CVS referencing its share repurchase program as part of its strategy to achieve its FY24 earnings target adds another layer of concern for investors, especially since CVS bought back stock for the first time since 2017 in Q1 this year.

Bottom line, the ratings cut comes at a bad time for CVS, which just agreed to purchase Signify Health (SGFY) for around $8.0 bln. Although CVS offered some encouraging words on still achieving its FY23 and FY24 projections, the possible halt to share buybacks overshadows these silver linings.




Peloton pedals higher following report of another round of layoffs, but future remains murky (PTON)
Peloton's (PTON) glory days may be far behind it, but the connected fitness company is still searching for answers as it attempts to execute a dramatic turnaround. The company's latest bid to resuscitate its ailing business includes another round of layoffs. According to the Wall Street Journal, PTON is cutting 12% of its workforce, or about 500 positions, with many of the reductions affecting the marketing department. Unfortunately, job cuts have become commonplace at PTON this year. In total, the company has now issued at least 1,800 layoffs in 2022 in an effort to better align the size of the business with current demand trends.

There probably isn't much of a surprise factor as it relates to this news since PTON is on a cost-cutting mission. However, what may be catching investors' attention is CEO Barry McCarthy's comment that the company has six months to prove if it can survive on its own. In effect, McCarthy is stating that there's only so much that he can do to save the company. Ultimately, the company's survival will depend upon whether there's sufficient enough demand for its products to generate positive cash flow and earnings.

On that note, PTON has made good progress in reducing its cash burn. In 4Q22, free cash flow improved by about $266 mln yr/yr to ($411.9) mln. After significantly reducing its inventory, and outsourcing all of its equipment manufacturing, McCarthy believes that PTON can reach breakeven cash flow on a quarterly basis in 2H23.

The harder part, though, will come on the sales side. The main challenge is that, in the wake of the pandemic, people want to get out of their homes to work out, rather than spend more time in them. This is clearly evidenced by the recent recovery in Planet Fitness (PLNT), which generated revenue growth of 64% and 67% over the past two quarters. Additionally, the pandemic created a massive pull-forward in demand. Many people who were interested in owning a PTON bike or tread have already purchased one.

If PTON fails to return to growth, it won't be for a lack of effort.

  • The company recently launched its bike rental program, providing first generation bikes and All-Access Memberships to users for $89/month. When PTON reported Q4 results, it disclosed that roughly 20% of all first-generation bikes were rented in the limited test markets.
  • PTON is definitely getting its products in front of customers. In August, it announced a deal to open a store on Amazon (AMZN), followed a month later by a new partnership with Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) to sell its equipment at its stores.
  • On September 20, PTON unveiled the Peloton Row for $3,195, with pre-orders in the U.S. starting immediately.
PTON is putting up a good fight, but it's hard to shake the feeling that it's climbing a hill that might be insurmountable. Last quarter, net connected fitness subscription additions collapsed by 98% yr/yr, while average monthly connected fitness churn nearly doubled yr/yr to 1.4%. With McCarthy establishing a six-month window for PTON's turnaround to take hold, it won't be too long before the fate of the company becomes clearer.

Continued employment growth weighs down futures
The stock market had a good showing to begin the week but found some resistance over the past two days amid ongoing concerns about geopolitical tensions, fluctuating expectations regarding the Fed's rate hike path, and the expected impact on growth. The S&P 500 enters today with a 4.4% gain for the week while the Nasdaq has climbed 4.7% since last Friday, but these gains will be moderated at the open, as futures on the S&P 500 trade 40 points, or 1.1%, below fair value.

Fed officials have made it clear that the labor market is expected to soften, and some of that was seen in Tuesday's release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which showed that the number of job openings fell by more than a million in August. However, today's release of the Employment Situation report for September reflected continued growth in headline employment and monthly average hourly earnings, giving the Fed room to continue its aggressive rate hike campaign.

Looking at the details:

  • September nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 (Briefing.com consensus 250,000). The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls decreased to 372,000 from a revised 382,000 in August. August nonfarm payrolls were left unrevised at 315,000. July nonfarm payrolls revised up to 537,000 from 526,000.
  • September private sector payrolls increased by 288,000 (Briefing.com consensus 275,000). August private sector payrolls revised down to 275,000 from 308,000. July private sector payrolls revised down to 448,000 from 477,000.
  • September unemployment rate was 3.5% (Briefing.com consensus 3.7%), versus 3.7% in August. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 18.5% of the unemployed versus 18.8% in August. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, was 6.7% versus 7.0% in August.
  • September average hourly earnings were up 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) versus up 0.3% in August. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 5.0%, down from 5.2% for the 12 months ending in August.
  • The average workweek in September was 34.5 hours (Briefing.com consensus 34.5), versus 34.5 hours in August. Manufacturing workweek was little changed at 40.3 hours. Factory overtime held at 3.2 hours.
  • The labor force participation rate dipped to 62.3% from 62.4% in August.
  • The employment-population ratio held at 60.1%.
The understanding that the report is unlikely to soften the Fed's rate hike path has sent equity futures to lows while the dollar is showing continued strength against the euro and Sterling.

Treasuries started the day on a lower note with shorter tenors pacing the retreat, and they have added to their losses in reaction to the report. The 2-yr yield is up ten basis points at 4.33%, on the verge of hitting a fresh high for the year, while the 10-yr yield is up eight basis points at 3.90%.

In other news, markets in China will reopen on Monday after this week's closure while equity indices in Japan and South Korea will be closed to start next week. In Europe, Credit Suisse (CS 4.45, +0.16, +3.7%) offered to buy back up to $3 bln worth of debt and British Prime Minister Truss refused to rule out the possibility for widespread blackouts during the winter if her country fails to import enough energy.

President Biden told donors at a New Jersey fundraiser that, "First time since the Cuban missile crisis we have a direct threat of the use of nuclear weapons if in fact things continue down the path they are going."

Chipmakers are likely to see some early weakness after AMD (AMD 64.32, -3.53, -5.2%) lowered its Q3 revenue and gross margin guidance due to sluggish demand. Shares of AMD have given back this week's gain in pre-market while the PHLX Semiconductor Index was up 8.8% for the week at the end of yesterday's session.








To: Return to Sender who wrote (89112)10/10/2022 5:36:13 PM
From: Return to Sender1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Sr K

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17 New 52 Week Lows on the NDX and No New 52 Week Highs

New Lows:

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AMD AMAT
ANSS AMD
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