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Technology Stocks : AMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42306)8/2/2021 2:07:01 PM
From: Joe NYCRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 52524
Hi Kevin,

Sometime ago (maybe one year?) you posted about selling off your AMD shares and moving on. Within a day or two, you changed your mind
I am pretty sure everybody considered it at one point or another. I was quite down when the news of Intel on TSMC 3nm came out.

To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42306)8/2/2021 2:16:32 PM
From: neolibRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 52524
Look at it this way: With the XLNX purchase AMD will be running around 5.5B/Qtr less than 1/3 of INTC, yet the marketcap of AMD right now, assuming the XLNX purchase, is about 165B vs INTC at 218B or so. We have already hit pie in the sky!

To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (42306)8/2/2021 3:30:52 PM
From: VattilaRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 52524
That was a private matter that had nothing to do with AMD and my view of their prospects. The matter was resolved without me having to sell.

At the time I said I thought Lisa Su had more in the tank, which has proven to be right.

For my AMD scenarios, see my latest post on that below. Note that these are not predictions. Instead it is an attempt to divide all possible outcomes into 5 scenarios and then quantify them by assigning a probable value range for revenue, CAGR, GM, EPS, market capitalisation, and stock price, as well as a likelihood for each scenario to pan out in reality. You can follow links to replied-to messages for the history of these scenarios (or search the forum subject for "prospects" or "precarious").

Message 33320663

PS. Interestingly, my pie-in-the-sky scenario is just peanuts in terms of market capitalisation when you look at Nvidia. I find it hard to understand the extent of Nvidia's mindshare in the market.