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To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (4608)	3/5/2021 1:28:41 PM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4791

Hi Art, Price increases for NAND will reduce demand for NAND. It’s common sense. It’s historical fact. n this case it appears that demand is somewhat inelastic. It goes up even in the face of slight increases in price. Or it remains constant even in the face of price cuts, depending on other external economic and political factors. Keep in mind we are talking about a forecast, not a historical case. I doubt NAND prices will be stable for H1 2021, and THEN increase in H2 2021. My hunch is there is probably LOTS of double ordering now due to the tightness in the semi supply chain, and this double ordering is holding up NAND prices today. it’s just as likely the semiconductor tightness loosens in H2 2021, and prices of everything decline a good bit then. We can all forecast. I think forecasting a nand price increase to occur six months from now takes more magical futures knowledge than any of us possess.

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (4608)	3/6/2021 12:03:58 AM
From: SiliconAlley	1 Recommendation Recommended By Mesaverde Respond to of 4791

It's not as simple as the notion that "rising prices dampens demands." That would occur if demand is elastic, meaning that it is totally dependent on changes in price. In this case it appears that demand is somewhat inelastic. It goes up even in the face of slight increases in price. Actually, rising prices do dampen demand, but the dampened demand does not drive prices down, it just brings supply and demand in closer balance. When demand exceeds supply, rising prices is what brings supply and demand in balance. Just like it does with stocks. Efficient markets seek to match supply at a price with demand at a price - and seeks a price where maximum widgets are traded. When demand exceeds supply, and prices rise, some demanders drop out while other are just SOL because they don't have the right connections to secure an allocation. What matters here is that the driving force is demand, *resulting* in prices rising. It is not rising prices that are raising demand, though rising price can in fact increase immediate demand from purchasers wishing to stock up ahead of future price increases.