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To: neolib who wrote (206903)11/4/2012 9:45:52 AM
From: Dale Baker  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 503047
 
The CO polls are a grab bag slightly in Obama's favor. Silver includes some other factors about each state and mixes those in too, so his numbers may differ from simply averaging the polls.

The unknown out West is if Hispanics really have been undercounted. That can only go to Obama's favor.

Pollster Dates Pop. Obama Romney Undecided Margin
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) NEW! 11/1 - 11/3 973 LV 45 47 4 Romney +2
PPP (D-LCV) 10/31 - 11/1 825 LV 50 46 4 Obama +4
Denver Post/SurveyUSA 10/28 - 10/31 695 LV 47 45 - Obama +2
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/27 - 10/31 744 LV 45 46 6 Romney +1
CNN 10/26 - 10/31 764 LV 50 48 2 Obama +2
We Ask America 10/30 - 10/30 1,246 LV 50 47 - Obama +3
Rasmussen 10/29 - 10/29 750 LV 47 50 1 Romney +3
Grove Insight (D-Project New America/USAction) 10/28 - 10/29 500 LV 48 45 6 Obama +3
ARG 10/25 - 10/28 600 LV 47 48 4 Romney +1
PPP (D) 10/23 - 10/25 904 LV 51 47 2 Obama +4



To: neolib who wrote (206903)11/4/2012 9:46:04 AM
From: Dale Baker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 503047
 
How Romney Would Treat Women
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF

IN this year’s campaign furor over a supposed “war on women,” involving birth control and abortion, the assumption is that the audience worrying about these issues is just women.

Give us a little credit. We men aren’t mercenaries caring only for Y chromosomes. We have wives and daughters, mothers and sisters, and we have a pretty intimate stake in contraception as well.

This isn’t like a tampon commercial on television, leaving men awkwardly examining their fingernails. When it comes to women’s health, men as well as women need to pay attention. Just as civil rights wasn’t just a “black issue,” women’s rights and reproductive health shouldn’t be reduced to a “women’s issue.”

To me, actually, talk about a “war on women” in the United States seems a bit hyperbolic: in Congo or Darfur or Afghanistan, I’ve seen brutal wars on women, involving policies of rape or denial of girls’ education. But whatever we call it, something real is going on here at home that would mark a major setback for American women — and the men who love them.

On these issues, Mitt Romney is no moderate. On the contrary, he is considerably more extreme than President George W. Bush was. He insists, for example, on cutting off money for cancer screenings conducted by Planned Parenthood.

The most toxic issue is abortion, and what matters most for that is Supreme Court appointments. The oldest justice is Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a 79-year-old liberal, and if she were replaced by a younger Antonin Scalia, the balance might shift on many issues, including abortion.

One result might be the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which for nearly four decades has guaranteed abortion rights. If it is overturned, abortion will be left to the states — and in Mississippi or Kansas, women might end up being arrested for obtaining abortions.

Frankly, I respect politicians like Paul Ryan who are consistently anti-abortion, even in cases of rape or incest. I disagree with them, but their position is unpopular and will cost them votes, so it’s probably heartfelt as well as courageous. I have less respect for Romney, whose positions seem based only on political calculations.

Romney’s campaign Web site takes a hard line. It says that life begins at conception, and it gives no hint of exceptions in which he would permit abortion. The Republican Party platform likewise offers no exceptions. Romney says now that his policy is to oppose abortion with three exceptions: rape, incest and when the life of the mother is at stake.

If you can figure out Romney’s position on abortion with confidence, tell him: at times it seems he can’t remember it. In August, he abruptly added an exception for the health of the mother as well as her life, and then he backed away again.

Romney has also endorsed a “ personhood” initiative treating a fertilized egg as a legal person. That could lead to murder charges for an abortion, even to save the life of a mother.

In effect, Romney seems to have jumped on board a Republican bandwagon to tighten access to abortion across the board. States passed a record number of restrictions on abortion in the last two years. In four states, even a woman who is seeking an abortion after a rape may be legally required to undergo a transvaginal ultrasound.

If politicians want to reduce the number of abortions, they should promote family planning and comprehensive sex education. After all, about half of all pregnancies in the United States are unintended, according to the Guttmacher Institute, which conducts research on reproductive health.

Yet Romney seems determined to curb access to contraceptives. His campaign Web site says he would “eliminate Title X family planning funding,” a program created in large part by two Republicans, George H. W. Bush and Richard Nixon.

Romney has boasted that he would cut off all money for Planned Parenthood — even though federal assistance for the organization has nothing to do with abortions. It pays for such things as screenings to reduce breast cancer and cervical cancer.

Romney’s suspicion of contraception goes way back. As governor of Massachusetts, he vetoed a bill that would have given women who were raped access to emergency contraception.

Romney also wants to reinstate the “ global gag rule,” which barred family planning money from going to aid organizations that even provided information about abortion. He would cut off money for the United Nations Population Fund, whose work I’ve seen in many countries — supporting contraception, repairing obstetric fistulas, and fighting to save the lives of women dying in childbirth.

So when you hear people scoff that there’s no real difference between Obama and Romney, don’t believe them.

And it’s not just women who should be offended at the prospect of a major step backward. It’s all of us.









































































To: neolib who wrote (206903)11/4/2012 10:02:05 AM
From: JohnM  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 503047
 
How is he getting CO at 68% chance for Obama? I thought most the polls are showing the opposite: going for Romney.

My impression is a bit different. I've tried to use only one electoral map, the Huffington Post which seemed most reliable and a bit slower to make changes. They've consistently had Colorado as a tossup with a small polling edge for Obama. There maps, like many of the electoral map making outfits, are built out of polling averages so there's little doubt that most polls show Obama ahead. But the differences are apparently slight.