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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Brophy who wrote (15544)10/1/2002 3:10:58 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 70590
What about technology value stocks.

Yes. I have had AFCO on my watch list. Wanted to buy it a little closer to cash value, and so missed its rise. I don't know enough about its business for me to see it as a buy based on its business prospects. That it might triple based on its technology or potential sales of its products, makes it a story stock to me. With your knowledge or experience or perspective, you might see it differently

I don't know about TFS's business either. From where I started buying, I'm underwater.
TFS cash on hand is $141M according to the company, which I make to be about $6.50/sh. So this number is higher than Yahoo's $5.73/sh number. Stock's now about $4.50/sh.

Trying to guess where we're going from here: TFS is expected to lose money this year and next, while AFCO is expected to earn .58 (Yahoo consensus est.). At a price today of about $10.93, that .58 is a pretty good return considering that there's $7.50/sh in cash (no debt) in the AFCO stock.

For me, I'm sticking with my bet that TFS in the coming year can make some business decisions that might either stem losses or enhance shareholder value. A stock buyer now gets the business for free. It apparently isn't much of a business, but over 1500 people are on the payroll doing something. (to improve the business, I hope)

TFS is one of a number of tech stocks that I have bought. I certainly haven't given up on tech stocks.
However, because I'm not knowledgeable in the specific niches or the specific tech businesses, in this current market environment I want to see some catalyst or some margin of safety before I start a position.

To: Mark Brophy who wrote (15544)10/9/2002 9:45:02 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 70590
Regarding AFCO you mentioned and TFS. I've got a small plateful of TFS. It's now selling almost 55% of cash (with no debt). This company's been around a while, and sometimes it's even been profitable.

I'm not touting the stock or even recommending it. (I'm too shell-shocked in this market to make any suggestions.) Regarding TFS, on the one hand, perhaps I have made a mistake with the numbers or my calculations or assumptions. Perhaps there are off-book deals, or crooked managers, or horrific bad news to be forthcoming. On the other hand, if I didn't make a mistake (other than buying the stock -g-), then I'm shocked because if this dollar bill keeps going for 50c or even less, then imo, there's no telling how low other stocks will go - the bigger and better mid and large caps - if investors turn away from stocks at almost any price.

Ah well...

About AFCO. I took a small starter position today. Yahoo shows $7.50 sh/cash with no debt. The stock closed at $8.40. They're selling off a part of their business. I'll assume that this is a positive, that they are trying to focus. The company is expected to be profitable this year and next (per Yahoo research). There's that kicker you mentioned regarding the beverage labeling possibilities. In every year in the past decade or more, except 2002, these factors might have been enough to qualify it for a buy.

jmo and impressions,

Paul Senior