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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Trader who wrote (60849)2/21/2002 9:17:02 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Respond to of 70976
 
John, so Jacob has seen a pattern of stock collapses and expects, because he has a linear pattern recognition system as he points out we all have, that that pattern will continue as it has in the past. As he points out, there is no reason at all to think that the previous pattern will continue. That is a hoax we and he play on ourselves.

<if we recognize a pattern of not being able to recognize certain kinds of patterns, then that would useful. I am not saying this applies to you, maybe it applies mostly to me with regards to being able to predict this market.>

Therefore, he might well be wrong in his imaginary pattern perception.

Mq



To: John Trader who wrote (60849)2/21/2002 11:08:28 PM
From: willcousa  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
Even if it is true that the internet is a major development, which I happen to believe, it will still be hard to guess where the money is to be made from it. So I am sticking with dell intel amat and such.



To: John Trader who wrote (60849)2/22/2002 2:13:08 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
John, Michael, Maurice:

I've been on a roll, since late 2000, and made no big bad calls. But, before that, I've made some really horrible calls. Look at my posts on the WCOM thread in mid-2000. I thought WCOM was a Safe stock, a Value, at 40. I was loaded up by 30, and held all of it, all the way down to 13. So, please, don't think I'm a genius, just because my recent track record is good. I'm not.

I do everything in increments, precisely because I don't think I or anyone can call specific tops and bottoms. My AMAT sell at 50 didn't happen. But I offloaded all my TXN at 30, giving me the cash to buy back now. At some point the Bull Market will resume. Or maybe we get a Bear Rally that lasts a year, and brings the Nas (temporarily) to 3000. I spend a lot of time guessing, and post my guesses, but I am likely to be wrong a significant fraction of the time. And I change my mind a lot.

Where I am now, and Guesses-of-the-Day: At the beginning of this month, I was 35% cash. This week, a lot of buy points have been hit, in EMC, AMAT, CSCO, TXN, and CMH. As of today, I started using margin. Last October, I had posted I wouldn't start using margin until the Nas was tetesting it's October lows (1400). I'm buying more at higher levels (started using margin at Nas 1700, down from intermediate top of 2100) , because I now think we don't retest the October lows. I was very encouraged by the conference calls I listened to this earnings season. IMO, liquidity and a (modest) rebound in the fundamentals will put a floor under stocks. I expect that managements for tech companies will be cautiously guiding analysts to raise forward earnings/sales/margin expectations, and this has to be good for stocks. But war and valuations will put a ceiling on stock prices. In particular, I think our government is committed to overthrowing the Iraqi regime, a job much more difficult than the Afghan war. This can't be good for stocks.