Portfolio down 0.02%, Dow down 0.08%, Nasdaq down 0.27%, S&P500 down 0.29%, Gilder up 1.3%, Meisler up 1.6%, J-Blimps up 1.6%, Fuel cells/Alt energy up 0.7%
NYSE Volume: 817mln...Adv: 1170...Dec: 1603
Nasdaq Volume: 1.4 bln...Adv: 1876...Dec: 2087
Put/call ratio is 0.44 (range 0.40-0.49) The bulls are raging now.
Sector Watch
Mostly a lazy day with small profitaking on yesterday’s rises.
Disk Drives ($DDX) 94.91 +8.70 +10.09% Ok, Now I’m awake. HMTT up 31%, KMAG up 31%, RDRT up 17%, WDC up 28%. This move today broke through the 200 day EMA. Busted above three levels of resistance. Something up for the sector. I must DD the best of the lot and try to figure out what’s happening on the balance sheets.
"Investors are buying on optimism for the fourth quarter and the prospect that companies in the sector will return to profitability," said Chase H&Q analyst Bill Lewis.
Disk drive companies were hampered by price declines and chip shortages in the second quarter, Lewis said.
The turnaround in the disk drive sector comes a week after Salomon Smith Barney downgraded hard-disk stocks based on the belief that the industry will take longer to recover than previously expected.
HMTT HTCH IOM KMAG DSS HDD RDRT SEG STK WDC make up this index
Drugs ($DRG) 388.58 -8.50 -2.14% Every single one was red though none over 5%. Sector drifting below its peak of mid-July. Nothing good since the Eli Lily court loss last week. Buying a pharmaceutical stock means looking at the drug pipeline closely.
ABT AZA AHP AMGN AZN BMY FRX GLX JNJ LLY MRK PFE PHA SGP SBH are the index.
Portfolio Watch
MTSN up 6.65%. Another chip maker riding high. This is up 25% in a week and I haven’t taken profits yet. Trying to make this my long term semi stock since January, but this run is wild.
EPG up 0.87%. New52whHI. Oh yeah. Natural gas is hot. There has to be a winner in high natural gas prices beside these companies.
IFR up 4.34%. Still have a hard time thinking this is a semi stock but market has its label on it.
CTB up 4.57%. Finally. Nice move on good volume. Firestone issue got someone digging around in sector. Had to dust the cobwebs off this one.
Focus Stock
UCL down 3.40%. Unocal Corp. (UCL, news, msgs) has offered oil companies limited amnesty from punitive damages for infringement on its five reformulated gasoline, or RFG, patents.
In letters sent to refiners in two batches Aug. 3 and Aug. 11, the Los Angeles-based company made the offer to grant amnesty from enhanced-damage claims in exchange for license negotiations and production disclosures, according to Unocal spokesman Barry Lane.
"We're offering that if they enter into serious licensing discussions within 45 days (of the dates of the letters), Unocal will waive any claim to enhanced damages for willful infringement of its patents for infringing gasoline sold during...calendar year 2000," Lane said.
To qualify for the limited amnesty, refiners and blenders would have to provide on a confidential basis production records for gasoline with a Reid vapor pressure of 7.5 pounds per square inch or less during the period from Jan. 1, 1996, to the present.
These records would help determine whether patent infringements had occurred, Lane said. "We don't know if they infringed or the degree of infringement until we sit down and talk to them," he said.
No company has responded so far to the offer, Lane said.
Then the fisrt salvo is fired:
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM, news, msgs) Friday rejected Unocal Corp.'s (UCL, news, msgs) offer to waive claims on patent infringement, insisting it hadn't infringed on Unocal's patent for reformulated gasoline.
Moreover, Exxon Mobil said, that offer by Unocal triples the patent royalties that would be paid by refiners producing cleaner-burning reformulated gasoline.
"It's Exxon Mobil's position that we've not infringed on any of Unocal's patents," said company spokesman Tom Cirigliano. "As Unocal knows, we're currently appealing to the U.S. Supreme Court because we believe Unocal abused patent and regulatory process. Unfortunately, if Unocal's statement is true, Unocal is now seeking more than 17 cents a gallon for gasoline (manufactured by use of Unocal's invention), rather than the 5.75 cents a gallon which has already alarmed consumers and government agencies."
Cirigliano was reacting to an Aug. 3 letter from Unocal that offered the waiver if refiners and blenders agreed to enter good faith discussions with Unocal regarding the gasoline patent, which is one of the factors blamed for the rise in summer gasoline prices.
This is going to get very ugly, but the merits of the case made at the appellate court should hold up at the Supreme Court. Bush-Cheney tickets has roots originating in the oil industry. With millions at stake, the outcome of the election may sway policy toward this whole issue of reformulated gasoline as the new administration could have EPA stay/enforce the use of reformulated gas rule.
Stock Watch
ATML was up nearly 10% today raising Gilder up. ML Joe Osha raised ATML and other semi stocks. Very bullish.
ASYT up 18%. A chip maker riding the semi boom up to help Meisler portfolio.
DITC up 14% Revs up 345% from a year ago to assist Meisler. Ditech's pro forma net income available to common shareholders for the first quarter of fiscal 2001 was $14.2 million, up from $940,000 in the same quarter last year. Pro forma earnings per share for the first quarter was $0.47 compared to $0.04 for the same quarter last year. Stock has been beaten down and now running up. Still not hit the 200/50 day EMA yet.
CREE moved the J-blimps by going up 14% on making a well read top ten list. Fortune Top 10 : Accompanying Fortune's 100 Fastest Growing companies list was an article titled Ten Stocks: The Best of the Bunch; those stocks were: Network Appliance (NTAP), Solectron (SLR), Mercury Interactive (MERQ), Sapient (SAPE), i2 Tech (ITWO), RF Micro (RFMD), Cree (CREE), Comverse (CMVT), Forest Labs (FRX), and Guidant (GDT).
This portfolio has done OK since the big Nasdaq drop in late July. Only two down days in the last ten trading sessions with today being flat. Less volatility.
Watching the put/call ratio getting low again. A lot of optimism going into next week’s FOMC meeting. Usually the Nasdaq has rallied on FOMC days. Sure looks like rates won’t be raised. Many high flyers are getting bought in at levels I find expensive. I hate chasing stocks when the general trend has gone up on weak volume. I don’t like the advance/decline line of the Nasdaq. This rally is narrow and really only in the semis and a few others. The Nasdaq looks like a symetrical wedge that will resolve its direction before mid/late-September. We’ll be above 4600 or below 3200 by then. Just not sure which way it will go so portfolio is weighted toward NYSE tech stocks with reasonable P/Es. Playing it defensive if the market goes south and buying strong NYSE stocks in the various sectors to ride the group’s bullish pattern if the trend is up.
Greg (IOIH) said it best.
Gap and sell...that's the market we are in. Daytrading is tough...position trading and good stock picking is about all that works right now. You almost have to take the chance and hold stocks overnight in this market. Momo plays are few and far between.
Message 14237627
Jack |
