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Pastimes : G&K Investing for Curmudgeons -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (1849)4/24/2000 2:23:00 PM
From: tekboy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 22706
you realize that I just bought some more ATM 02 LEAPS at the lows this morning? What are you trying to do, scare what little crap remains out of me?


To: Uncle Frank who wrote (1849)4/25/2000 11:25:00 AM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 22706

Re: comments attributed to the president of Qualcomm Japan

<< Care to take a shot at explaining this, Eric? >>

To be candid, I'm a bit mystified by the tactics, and by no means supportive of them. I think there is much more going on here, however, than we are privy to, but I'll be darned if I know what it is.

Vintage Holy War s*** (backing NextWave to insure a national US cdma footprint before WirelessCo & PrimeCo selected technology).

As you stated in your post to Mq:

<< Dr. J has said on many occasions that adoption of any form of cdma is good for Q, but Ted Matsumoto's comment is in sharp contrast: >>

"We cannot live with a situation monopolized by the wrong technology," Ted Matsumoto said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires, explaining the U.S. telecommunications giant's surprise decision to launch a last-minute application for a 3G license in Japan.

It certainly is (in sharp contrast).

<< I'm also surprised that Matsumoto implies Q wouldn't be successful as a supplier of wcdma asics: >>

Although Qualcomm generates the same royalty rates from both W-CDMA and CDMA2000 technology, he noted that a shutout of CDMA2000 technology would hurt Qualcomm's sales of semiconductor chip sets for mobile handsets in Japan.

I think this is entirely possible both on the shorthaul while Qualcomm ramps up expertise in WCDMA ASIC design and in the long haul when the game becomes much more competitive:

I am hopeful that Matsumoto was misquoted by Dow Jones. His comments, as translated, seem a bit heavy handed, and smack of tactics Qualcomm successfully employed in the nineties, when they had little to lose and much too gain, but I am uncertain as to whether they are applicable in this decade.

At the very least, recent comments limping out of Qualcomm regarding bidding as part of a consortium for Japanese 3G spectrum if DDI chooses the "wrong" technology, reflect the significance Qualcomm attaches to this potential decision. I can not help but wonder how the FCC and the US populace would have reacted to similar comments by a foreign telecom company during the PCS-1900 spectrum auctions of 1995/1996.

Obviously, if DDI chooses WCDMA, Qualcomm views it as a setback, and are reacting to it. They have been quite confident that cdma2000 would be wildly successful, and seem to have been convinced that its technological merit would compel adoption beyond even the current cdmaOne community (allow this is a viewpoint I never shared).

I am sitting in the bleacher seats and watching this game play out. I candidly do not like the direction the game seems to be taking. We all have assumed that the logical upgrade path to 3G for a cdmaOne carrier is cdma2000. At the very least the medium term revenue stream for Qualcomm ASIC's is potentially affected by their single Japanese user, potentially building out WCDMA rather than cdmaOne in new 3G spectrum. Qualcomm's significant expertise in cdma chip design does not necessarily carry forward to WCDMA although we are assured they are working on developing these chips:

There certainly seems to be a significant groundswell developing for WCDMA adoption, and conversely, little for cdma2000.

I am beginning to form an opinion that although cdma2000 (1X) may be commercially available within the next year and may permit higher data rates quicker than WCDMA, that a version of cdma2000 that is suitably harmonized with UMTS as to permit interoperability with it, may be several years away, and this my affect technology selection on the short haul. If this is the practical reality, we may see WCDMA adopted in places we did not expect. While this is not necessarily Qualcomm negative, it is certainly not Qualcomm positive on the surface. It makes the royalty stream picture a bit less clear, and potentially affects ASIC sales, since Qualcomm has little experience with a WCDMA ASIC and seem to be a understandably frustrated with the fact that the specifications have been a moving target and their exclusion from 3GPP may limit their visibility on the specifications development, somewhat.

<< Finally, I'm surprised that Q, who has carefully unwound its infrastructure and handset divisions and spun off its US carrier operations is now pursing an operating license in Japan rather than doing so through one of its Japanese partners. >>


- Eric -