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   Technology StocksOLED Universal Display Corp

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To: Ravid.Ron who wrote (25880)4/21/2021 12:46:09 PM
From: Dkjunior143
1 Recommendation   of 26884
Your posts are very much appreciated, Ron ... please don't go anywhere and please continue posting here!

We all understand that communicating the full intent in what someone has said is difficult in and of itself, and even more difficult when you have to translate. I certainly do not think you intentionally changed words or meanings for the purpose of creating confusion or altering the overall message of what was stated by Jong-Hee Han ... it is purely an issue with the process of translating from one language to another and not anything improper done by you. None of this is a problem for me, and I feel confident the others on this board feel the same.

Also, I don't believe any actual misunderstanding was created from what you posted earlier. All that occurred was some discussion about some other possible interpretations of what Jong-Hee Han said. Those additional discussions about other possible meanings is a good thing, and is creating additional useful content on the board. So thank you for posting something that sparked that additional conversation and analysis. We all benefit from this.

I hope you choose to stay. It seems that you believe that others on this board are upset with you, and I feel confident that is not the case. I certainly appreciate all of your contributions and believe others feel that way too.

Take care!
- Dave

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To: chessboard_andy who wrote (25879)4/21/2021 12:47:15 PM
From: slacker711
2 Recommendations   of 26884
Timing around the Q2 earnings release in July seems to be the key for CapEx announcements.

That is close enough for me. The official announcement doesn't matter much anyway. They have yet to officially announce the Guangzhou expansion but the Korean press is already saying that they are signing contracts for equipment.

If an announcement is coming in July, they will likely give some hints that they are considering it in their current earnings call.

One of the key reasons in favor of 10.5G glass was the extreme level of waste with 65" and 77" screens. Careful implementation of MMG mitigates that issue immensely. There is obvious demand for the 48" and 32" screens that can be built alongside the big screens to get back to 85%+ glass utilization. Perfecting, refining and speeding up MMG seems like a much more straight-forward engineering challenge.

The exact economics of the various fab sizes is hard to ascertain but I would note that LCD fabs can (and do) use MMG but Samsung is closing their Gen 8 LCD fabs due to competition from Gen 10.5 fabs in China. My guess is that despite the efficiencies, MMG adds to the cost of production and the fact that the very largest TV sizes (>80") arent supported hurts the overall profitability of the smaller fabs.

Regardless though, any new capacity should make sense at this point.

If LGD doesn't start new capacity this year, then we'll likely see TV panel shipments max out at roughly 10m units until a printable technology comes along. That would mean ink jet (which would be terrible for UDC) or waiting for OVJP (a 3-5 year pause would also be terrible for UDC).

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To: chessboard_andy who wrote (25885)4/21/2021 1:52:46 PM
From: Ravid.Ron
5 Recommendations   of 26884
I wasn't feel offended absolutely.
Don't care. Never mind.Focus on investment.

I think your writing is a reasonable question.

It is not easy to invest in Korean stocks and US stocks at the same time for 24 hours.
I need to take a rest for a while.

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To: slacker711 who wrote (25887)4/21/2021 1:53:36 PM
From: chessboard_andy
   of 26884
If you are talking about LGD's 55" "screen equivalents" capacity, then the increase from 130K sheets per month to 160K sheets per month will bump capacity 20% from ~10m equivalent units to ~12m equivalent units.
If LGD doesn't start new capacity this year, then we'll likely see TV panel shipments max out at roughly 10m units until a printable technology comes along.
That 30K extra Guangzhou sheets was always noted in the plans for that facility, and as you noted it seems to be moving forward as we speak. That much growth is a given, but the timing remains to be seen.

If they only mention the extra 30K sheets in July, I will be disappointed. I am looking forward to that call as I do see it as important as to the direction of large scale production ramp. I don't anticipate too many hints about the ramp at the Q1 call although they may confirm the 30k at that time. I would see that as welcome confirmation, but it is already "baked in."

Beyond the 30K, it makes sense to delay as long as possible before committing to specifics, but they have already made clear that the transfer and growth of OLEDs in the large are display ecosystem is a long-term plan. As they make the transition, they must balance:
  • Maintaining their pricing power & margins as consumer acceptance and their customer base of OEMs grows. (If the Samsung reports are legit, that story is 100% complete.)
  • Any conversion of LCD capacity is tricky considering the great profitability they are getting from those lines in light of the current pricing of LCD panels. (I think there are either 1 or 2 8G lines that could be converted rather than taking up space at Paju or squeezing more equipment into the current footprint.
  • Waiting to see the developments and potential competition from the QD OLED tests at SDC as well as implementation of Mini LCD. If competing Premium TV technologies can aggressively undercut pricing within premium market, that could impact their growth plans. At this point as processes are refined, depreciation is moving forward and efficiencies are gained, that seems unlikely.
  • Waiting for the holy grail of direct deposit to have a breakthrough moment.

I think that last bullet of direct deposit is too unlikely to derail implementation of a growth plan utilizing the current production methods, which is my point of disagreement with you.

Obviously time will tell, and I am looking forward to the July Q2 conference call by LGD.


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To: slacker711 who wrote (25881)4/21/2021 2:04:51 PM
From: ynotgoal
   of 26884
They have enough materials for at least 18 months of production

The increase in raw materials inventory is good. How did you come up with the 18 months figure?

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To: mikeemarc who wrote (25766)4/21/2021 2:43:41 PM
From: chessboard_andy
   of 26884
Tech showcase site run by LG Display (not LG Electronics.) I love the fact that the "Store" link includes links to online and brick and mortar retailers all around the world and that the links take you to brand neutral searches for OLED Televisions regardless of OEM.

It also has a nice Media Feed and numerous featurettes. The entire site is available in English, Korean and Chinese.


Well done marketing site and worth a bookmark.

(If this has been previously posted I apologize for the duplication. I just happened upon it for the first time from the LG Display corporate site.)


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To: ynotgoal who wrote (25890)4/21/2021 5:09:11 PM
From: slacker711
2 Recommendations   of 26884
It is just a ballpark figure.

The inventory is held at cost so it represents roughly 20% of the potential sales revenue. $450m in material revenues is about half the consensus revs over the next 18 months. UDC should certainly have no problems holding off an raw material purchases for a few months if they know this is a short-term issue.

Surprisingly, the price of iridium isn't mentioned as a risk factor in their 10k. Maybe they have long-term contracts in place?

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To: slacker711 who wrote (25892)4/21/2021 6:17:51 PM
From: A.J. Mullen
   of 26884
The price of iridium has been discussed a number of times. A month ago I'manoledfan warned:

This sharp increase in Iridium price could effect Universal Display's margins - and may result in an increase in material prices. UDC is bound in long-term agreements with its customers - but it could be that the price is tied to the price of Iridium, which could mean that the price of OLED panels may increase. SI 25719

Hours later, he wrote:

I'm sure UDC's management is keenly aware of supply and cost of iridium. It would not surprise me to find that they have a 2 year supply on hand, even with production set to double over the next few years. I forget how many cell displays can be made with a single gram but it is a lot of screens. Time will tell. SI 25711

I find the latter paragraph reassuring.

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To: Ravid.Ron who wrote (25880)4/21/2021 9:30:29 PM
From: DaYooper
1 Recommendation   of 26884
Please continue posting your translations of the news articles when you have time. We all appreciate it very much and we understand some translations are not perfect. No problem! And thank you for all the information you have provided over the last few years.

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From: I'manoledguy4/22/2021 9:07:08 AM
1 Recommendation   of 26884
Problem of catastrophic Oled lighting failures --a possible solution from UDC

By isolating and hermetically sealing individual pixels; any damage such as moisture and oxygen ingress due to defects or particles, delamination, cracking etc. can be effectively contained within the pixel thereby protecting other pixels in the panel.


The main external factor influencing the dark spot formation is the presence of humidity, dust particles, pinholes, spikes on ITO, short circuit, etc

Link to some good reading on topic above

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