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   Technology StocksOLED Universal Display Corp

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To: EvanG who wrote (25290)4/21/2021 11:30:35 AM
From: ynotgoal
1 Recommendation   of 26575
Iridium prices have tripled since Evan's year end post about the rising cost of Iridium. It's almost 10x from when UDC long term contracts with pricing were signed.


Iridium has had a major price increase in the last 2 weeks. Only small changes the previous 2 years.

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To: ynotgoal who wrote (25877)4/21/2021 11:51:23 AM
From: BobbyVinton
2 Recommendations   of 26575
Anglo American Platinum creates Iridium shortages In November South African based, Anglo American Platinum (JSE: AMS, OTCMKTS: NGLOY), had to close its plant due to a series of water leaks. The facility is now closed for a full rebuild in 2021. Unfortunately, this closure led to an iridium supply shortage, just as demand was growing.

An analyst at German technology group Heraeus said:

“Iridium has the longest processing time of all the PGMs, so supply is set to be impacted (by the Amplats closure) well into 2021, providing support for sustained high prices,”

South Africa produces 80-85% of the world’s iridium. This makes Anglo American Platinum a major producer. It also processes material for other miners, causing supply chain issues for several companies.

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To: slacker711 who wrote (25869)4/21/2021 12:10:41 PM
From: chessboard_andy
2 Recommendations   of 26575
I am not sure I entirely agree with your assessment Slacker. LG Display is enjoying great pricing power right now on both the LCD and OLED side of production and I know that they are delighted with profitability as a change of pace.

I do think they will announce expansion beyond the extra 30K 8.5G sheets prior to rewriting the entire playbook with a completely novel production process. The real questions are (1) When (2) Where and (3) What Size Mother Glass.

Regarding (1) When: I have recently gone back and reviewed the timing of prior official announcements about CapEx commitments regarding the OLED build-out. Timing around the Q2 earnings release in July seems to be the key for CapEx announcements. (Whether or not they come to fruition is a different matter.) Examples:
  • 7/25/2017 was the original announcement about the Paju 10.5G line and the original announcement of the Guangzhou line
  • 7/10/2018 announcement of the JV to build the Guangzhou line was accepted and gave more details
  • 7/23/2019 was an additional 3Trillion KRW commitment to Paju 10.5G as well as the first official mention of MMG
  • 7/23/2020 they announced the opening of Guangzhou

The pause on the Paju line construction never came from an official release.

Regarding (2) Where: I think the idea of getting Chinese state subsidies for CapEx is pretty attractive, and as best I can tell the build-out and ramping at Guangzhou within the context of a pandemic went much smoother than I would have expected. I anticipate this may be a factor as to what may be announced in July. As a counterpoint, there is always going to be pressure to keep production in Korea, and we know that the footprint at Paju will support additional lines.

Any new technologies and processes are almost certainly likely to happen first at Paju. The fab buildout was considerate of handling 10.5G size glass, and there are always IP concerns relating to new processes staying within South Korea.

Regarding (3) Size: I'm still guessing that the implementation of MMG makes 10.5G investment much less likely. Processing on a 60 square foot piece of glass is very different than a 110 square foot piece of glass. Scaling up is hard sometimes, and the machinery will very likely have lower yields and a slower throughput.

One of the key reasons in favor of 10.5G glass was the extreme level of waste with 65" and 77" screens. Careful implementation of MMG mitigates that issue immensely. There is obvious demand for the 48" and 32" screens that can be built alongside the big screens to get back to 85%+ glass utilization. Perfecting, refining and speeding up MMG seems like a much more straight-forward engineering challenge.

Thus. . . my GUESS is that we get an announcement for additional equipment orders for 8.5G high throughput lines.

I'm hoping we catch wend of the equipment orders being expedited. First the extra 30K sheets at Guangzhou moved up to ASAP status with Q4 2021 target. 2nd adding another 90K 8.5G sheets with an aggressive installation timeline of Q2 2022 would be super. I'm guessing Paju because we know they already have the floor space. There was that POLED line announcement a while back which seemed to hint that they aren't reserving the area previously intended for the 10.5G glass.

So, my hopeful capacity summary:
  • Current 70k Paju 60K Guangzhou = 130K monthly 8.5G sheets -- 715,000 m^2 per month
  • Hopeful Q4 2021 70K Paju 90K Guangzhou = 160K monthly 8.5G sheets -- +165,000 m^2 per month
  • Hopeful Q2 2022 160K Paju; 90K Gungzhou = 250K monthly 8.5G sheets -- +495,00 m^2 per month

Additional 8.5G expansion can happen in 2023 and then move to a structurally simpler OVJP process at 10.5g glass at 45K sheets monthly using a fully phosphorescent RGB system in 2024.

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To: chessboard_andy who wrote (25876)4/21/2021 12:16:00 PM
From: Ravid.Ron
   of 26575
It is not easy to explain because I have short English skills.
I didn't change'introduce' to'buy' because of bad intentions.
(I understand you are not blamed me. short English)

Although that article does not explain REAL FACT whether or not LG display OLED panels will be purchased in the future, but I understood that in the meaning of the word they are not buying.

I was just trying to deliver the article. Sometimes changing word would be better to give more accurate expressions by myself, so I changed the word (recently, this article is the only one.)

Repeat again.
I do not own OLED Stock.
In delivering the news, I reiterate that I have never had any bad intentions.

I decided that it would be better not to deliver the article.
It seems to be causing this misunderstanding and it doesn't seem be good.
(sent a message to admin for dropping my account)

I know that this place is all made up of good investors, so I believe you will have good results.
I hope you all make a successful investment.

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To: ynotgoal who wrote (25877)4/21/2021 12:26:10 PM
From: slacker711
   of 26575
FWIW, UDC's inventory situation at the end of last year.

They have enough materials for at least 18 months of production so I would hope that they slowed material purchases during the quarter. Regardless though, the rise in iridium prices are a definite risk for earnings and will likely make for some bad headlines.

December 31,



Raw materials








Finished goods








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From: qddb4/21/2021 12:29:41 PM
   of 26575
Foxconn Shrinks Plans for Wisconsin Plant
Electronics maker signs new deal with state to invest up to $672 million, instead of up to $10 billion

Some snips from behind paywall:

Foxconn is scaling back plans for a liquid-crystal-display plant in Wisconsin, saying it expects to invest a fraction of the $10 billion promised nearly four years ago, according to a new contract with the state.
Foxconn, a supplier of screens for Apple Inc., has previously said fast-changing LCD technology complicated plans in Wisconsin. In a recent report, Foxconn said the project was also slowed by “cultural assimilation, changing business demands, tariffs, a pandemic, and a presidential election year.”
The new contract allows incentive payments for “economic investment activities related to locating and operating a technology and manufacturing ecosystem.” The old contract required Foxconn to build a specific type of screen-making facility in Mount Pleasant, 25 miles south of Milwaukee.

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To: Ravid.Ron who wrote (25880)4/21/2021 12:30:35 PM
From: slacker711
9 Recommendations   of 26575
There is no reason for you to leave. Your contributions are very much appreciated.

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From: chessboard_andy4/21/2021 12:35:01 PM
3 Recommendations   of 26575
Throw-back Tuesday. . . 2.2" "screen equivalents" and the iriver Clix

As I was writing my last post, I had a moment of nostalgia for the old Y! board and the many discussions of capacity expansion at that time.

Way back in the mid-aughts we used to talk a lot about screens per month. The term of art the UDC came to use was "screen equivalents" which as I recall referred to the area equivalent to a 2.2" screen.

Something very similar but at a different order of magnitude continues to take place in LG Displays press releases regarding capacity. For example in the July 2018 press release about the Guangzhou Joint Venture getting approval from the Chinese authorities comes the following:

"Adding that to the production capacity of 70,000 input sheets per month from the company’s plants in Paju, LG Display’s total production capacity of large-size OLED panels will reach 130,000 sheets per month by the second half of 2019. This capacity will enable the company to ship up to 10 million 55-inch OLED TV panels on a yearly basis."

(My emphasis.) The 55" TV is the new 2.2" mp3 screen.

The math is pretty interesting and simple. 8.5G Glass measures 2200mm*2500mm=5,500,000 mm^2
So each sheet represents 5.5 square meters of glass. UDC materials coat the entire area.
Coincidentally, an 8.5G Glass efficiently produces six (6) 55" display panels.
130,000 sheets/month * 6 panels/sheet * 12 months/year = 9,360,000 panels per year at the 55" "Screen Equivalent" measure. (The 9.36 compared to 10 million stated capacity is merely a function of rounding errors on the throughput.)

So, when you look at numbers related to the numbers of OLED TV's sold keep in mind that the metric we care about should not be the number of television. Honestly it shouldn't even be the number of "Screen Equivalents." It should be meters squared.

As a final note. 10.5G glass measures 2940mm*3370mm=9,907,800 mm^2. So a bit over 9.9 m^2 of glass. As I was discussing in my prior note these sheets are basically 11' tall by nearly 10' wide and they need specially built doors and equipment to move them around. The size limit is constricted to practical issues such as overpasses and train tunnels at that point. Interestingly, one of the potential benefits of OVJP is that the process can be done vertically or horizontally and the glass should not have to be moved much from chamber to chamber, so large glass may be a "perfect fit" whenever this comes to pass.


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To: Ravid.Ron who wrote (25880)4/21/2021 12:37:29 PM
From: chessboard_andy
6 Recommendations   of 26575
Please do not leave and thank you for your contributions.

I did not mean any offense at all and just wanted to clarify my interpretation.

Kind regards,

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To: Ravid.Ron who wrote (25880)4/21/2021 12:46:09 PM
From: Dkjunior143
1 Recommendation   of 26575
Your posts are very much appreciated, Ron ... please don't go anywhere and please continue posting here!

We all understand that communicating the full intent in what someone has said is difficult in and of itself, and even more difficult when you have to translate. I certainly do not think you intentionally changed words or meanings for the purpose of creating confusion or altering the overall message of what was stated by Jong-Hee Han ... it is purely an issue with the process of translating from one language to another and not anything improper done by you. None of this is a problem for me, and I feel confident the others on this board feel the same.

Also, I don't believe any actual misunderstanding was created from what you posted earlier. All that occurred was some discussion about some other possible interpretations of what Jong-Hee Han said. Those additional discussions about other possible meanings is a good thing, and is creating additional useful content on the board. So thank you for posting something that sparked that additional conversation and analysis. We all benefit from this.

I hope you choose to stay. It seems that you believe that others on this board are upset with you, and I feel confident that is not the case. I certainly appreciate all of your contributions and believe others feel that way too.

Take care!
- Dave

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