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   Gold/Mining/EnergyGeodex Resources - GXM.V (was Agate Bay ABE)


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To: GWalker who wrote (196)1/25/2000 4:24:00 PM
From: Baywall
   of 210
 
GWalker,

It appears that I am a significant shareholder now. I averaged down to where breakeven point is within range. Why I held on over past 3 years, besides trying to get out at a profit, I felt that the mining industry would turn around faster. Now I realize that must go with the flow. We have witnessed many juniors changing over to high tech and internet. Also seen their prices go up in majority of cases. I believe GXM will be no different if the proposals are good revenue producers. I still don't know what the two private companies have to offer in terms of future profits. Like the news release says, more info will be given as time passes. In the meantime, Geodex is open to any other proposals. They have a tight share structure with insiders holding a bundle and no debt. Less than 6 million o/s shares and little worry about principals unloading their shares. Myself, I am holding tight to my holdings. All this will make for a price sensitive stock, what we all prefer to have.

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To: GWalker who wrote (196)3/14/2000 11:17:00 AM
From: Baywall
   of 210
 
GWalker,

I have used the averaging down technique and now show a profit. This was possible with high tech coming on the scene, which made GXM turnaround a reality. In most circumstances however, care should be taken when averaging down.

For Agate Bay holders whose stock price reached $1.50 in 1996, it would take $6.00 equivalent for GXM to match. (4:1 consolidation)

Should have a news release in the coming weeks. Talked yesterday to Mr. Maris-President, and everything is progressing well.

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To: Baywall who wrote (198)6/17/2000 1:01:00 PM
From: Baywall
   of 210
 
I interpret that a significant change has occurred on the moneyflow histogram. Also, bottom prices have been forming at progressively higher levels for the past 4 months. Any comments?

As of June 16th MF -10 and R/F -6 at 27cts. Both could be indicative of impending price movement.

Technical analysis was accurate in calling major turn in 1996, plus price changes in other companies. Now trying to prove the system is statistically accurate at 95% confidence level. The timing when to buy still requires work as well as LT vs ST. Good subject for masters thesis in commerce.

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To: Baywall who wrote (199)6/19/2000 11:09:00 AM
From: Baywall
   of 210
 
The moneyflow histogram is from AIQ Software in the US. Often goes by other names and hybrids do exist. I am using a modified version, using a 19 day moving average.

As for the thesis, it is not that easy. Anyone can pluck down a system or two. What is required is a system which works within statistical parameters. Then must explain the market dynamics which makes the system work and environmental factors which contribute to the signals. A drop in metal prices which appears LT in nature, also competition, interest rates, trade rulings, etc. Each industry operates within its own environment with some overlap in areas like interest rates.

A connection with management and how the knowledge of a major turn can help them better prepare the company. Maybe settle a pending financing if a downturn is foreseen, and so forth. There is often a good lead time before the rest of the world realizes something is changing for the LT.

I believe that stock prices reflect the consensus of all the info in the marketplace, both insider and other info. All fears, expectations are reflected in stock prices by buyers and sellers. For example, expectation of future interest rate changes are often reflected in current stock prices. Thus management may effect changes in the workplace to accommodate interest rates changes. Must be confident that the signals in stock prices will likely be accurate-thus the necessity of a workable system.

Many systems out there, I seen a lot. Some work in connection with others-proving a synergy effect. Others work only on buy or sell side. Surprisingly, many common systems are unreliable if used in isolation. Can get into securities theory where systems must be custom built for each security based on its past price/volume behavior, but too complicated. Many text systems are a good guide but lack the consistency to be considered reliable. Thus must invent others, based upon principles of older systems. The theory behind all the principles are valid, it's just creating system(s) to accurately accommodate such, which is difficult.

If all goes well, its back to school. Learning new things is ongoing throughout everyone's life. To understand how things work is interesting, never dull.

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To: Baywall who wrote (200)6/21/2000 11:11:00 AM
From: Baywall
   of 210
 
My mistake.

The histogram previously referred to is for the volume accumulation percent indicator. The money flow indicator on the other hand is a cumulative total plot.

The software is AIQ Market Expert of which inventor David Vomund feels that the money flow indicator is the most effective of the many systems he tested. But should be used with other indicators.

As for GXM, stock being under recent 2 1/2 month pressure did show a declining money flow (as all stocks will) but has recovered to the neutral level, with higher prices as a bonus.

There was no reason (using custom system set) for selling in the March run up, as no signal to sell existed. If anyone did see one (other than simply drawing horizontal lines all over the bar chart) please advise. It is because of this interpretation that I feel better days are ahead for this company.

Past posts by myself showed that technical analysis did fare quite poorly. Only on hindsight and matching a system to old data, did the missed buy/sell signal appear. A lot of work left.

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To: Baywall who wrote (201)7/2/2000 5:18:51 PM
From: Baywall
   of 210
 
Code B July 4 undeterminate. GXM/770000 status pending.

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To: Baywall who wrote (202)7/3/2000 11:31:49 AM
From: Baywall
   of 210
 
Code B means I will be purchasing more stock starting July 4th,with the quantity undeterminable at this time. (20-23cts area).

Other info relates to a long term outlook, pending until more public info. is released and some other factors.

Although I don't analyze a stock by the "picture" a graph shows, I am seeing what appears, to me, a triple bottom formation-which is good and could signal higher prices in the future. William O'Neil page 163 1st ed. mentions such. He also shows examples in his book. View graphs pgs 136-146 looking for the graphs with bottom formations.

GXM in latter half of 1999 did not challenge the 20ct level. Then in Feb-Mar. 2000 a strong runup occurred which Williams deems necesssary with all such formations. Now the stock has touched 20cts 3 times on a weekly bar chart-thus a triple bottom. 20ct support level is clearly higher than what was the case in 1999. Thus a person could buy on this info. although most would like more info. from the company.

Going to investcom.com site, clicking on CDNX market depth and then on "GXM" on top of Co. info, then pull down memu find insider trading, financings and so forth. We see a recent financing, with all participants listed.

However, with no public news release due for a while, the abovementioned pattern, remains a curiousity. To successfully complete the pattern will require a large weekly volume with a significant upward breakout in prices according to O'Neil. If not, I would not worry, as could be a second signal well ahead of the action. The first technical signal occurred before prices rose in Feb., evidence which can be proven by myself if anyone wishes.

As I mentioned in other posts, short-term predictions are getting better but longer-term are still giving me trouble. I am now focusing on both weekly and monthly charts.

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To: Baywall who wrote (203)7/6/2000 11:06:42 AM
From: Baywall
   of 210
 
Long term monthly chart shows a large symetrical triangle which started about April 1998. Connecting the tops and bottoms by lines, creates the triangle. There was a breakout in Feb 2000 when high tech was mentioned. A pullback, with the lowest bar just touched the top line of the triangle which did not re-enter the triangle occurred. Throughout the formation of the triangle, trading volumes were not irregular-a good sign.

A major turn often gives some kind of recognizable reversal formation on the chart. (Edwards & Magee). Technical Analysis of Stock Trends [New enhanced edition]. Looking at the chart on page 225, the stock price went up after the triangle was formed.

Any 2 year pattern, if proves itself, would be a very strong signal. I am not into picture analysis, but this is an interesting subject nevertheless.

Views would be appreciated.

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To: Baywall who wrote (204)7/25/2000 2:40:49 PM
From: Baywall
   of 210
 
Trading has been halted pending announcement. Change of business and/or reverse takeover.

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To: Baywall who wrote (205)7/26/2000 2:18:45 PM
From: Baywall
   of 210
 
Canada Stockwatch was the news. Describes the acquisition of Totalmediabuy.com Inc. which deals with media advertising. Also gives the identities and backgrounds of the directors and senior officers of TMB.

I believe this venture will be profitable, with the stock price rising as a consequence. Technical analysis has correctly pinpointed a potential price breakout. Today's news release in the immediate vicinity, adds weight that a price action may occur when shares resume trading.

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